One way to understand voting problems in the US is to see them as like amateur dress rehearsals for plays. There are many, many people doing something that they only do once every two years -- and may never have done before.
Not sure can take too much from CNN first exit poll data.
People are pissed about current state of things, don't think Biden was any good (but not that bad) and optimistic about the future.
CNN reports "voters have come out today and voted in the Presidential election", "expect both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to attract multiple votes".
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Indeed, and she’s closed the gap on economy quite a bit in recent days and weeks.
If it had been Biden, he would have got spanked....or if the GOP had picked a sensible, less divisive, candidate...as the dissatisfaction / angry numbers are incredibly high in the CNN poll.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
If it had been Biden, he would have got spanked....or if the GOP had picked a sensible, less divisive, candidate...as the dissatisfaction / angry numbers are incredibly high in the CNN poll.
That’s a 24% adverse swing from this morning, eeek
I would still bet my life on it.
On a 75% hunch, that’s somewhere between rash and idiotic.
Nah I've upped it to 99% now.
When you have procedures in hospital the medical team go down the vanishingly small bad things that can happen and then get you to consent. Having had one of those bad things happen and thinking I was dying, I’m probably a bit more wary about a 1 in 100 chance…
If it had been Biden, he would have got spanked....or if the GOP had picked a sensible, less divisive, candidate...as the dissatisfaction / angry numbers are incredibly high in the CNN poll.
My worst prediction of 2024 was that if Biden was the nominee, he would beat Trump.
I hadn’t quite anticipated DebateGate and all that flowed from it, but I could have anticipated the gaffes/decline and it becoming a prominent issue.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
If it had been Biden, he would have got spanked....or if the GOP had picked a sensible, less divisive, candidate...as the dissatisfaction / angry numbers are incredibly high in the CNN poll.
Who should they have picked?
DeSantis isn't super strong and his woke bashing signalling is tedious, but he isn't Trump level crazy and can point to Florida doing well under his leadership.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
More people say Kamala's views are too extreme than say the same about Trump.
Anyone who holds that opinion is a moron. Trump has all kinds of extremely extreme views. Mass deportation, going after political rivals, shutting down broadcasters, immunity for police violence, death penalty for all sorts of stuff, massive tariffs on trade, etc.
Democrats have been fearful of losing the vote of Michigan’s large Arab American and Muslim American communities over the Biden-Harris administration’s response to Israel’s war on Gaza, and at a polling station in Dearborn there was some evidence that they were right to be concerned.
Although it was a small sample size, none of the Arab American voters the Guardian spoke to had voted for Harris
Guardian blog
Yes, that is a big worry. From the vox pops, Gaza seems to have driven quite a few Muslims and younger voters to Stein.
There was an Arab-American spokesperson onstage at one of the Trump rallies yesterday saying the community had swung behind Trump over Gaza.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
Not sure can take too much from CNN first exit poll data.
People are pissed about current state of things, don't think Biden was any good (but not that bad) and optimistic about the future.
CNN reports "voters have come out today and voted in the Presidential election", "expect both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to attract multiple votes".
‘I don’t know who’s ahead, it’s either Oxford or Cambridge’ - John Snagge, 1949 Oxford/Cambridge Boat Race Commentator
I would again warn, 2020, I remember the answers to questions looked pretty good for Trumpian point of view early on.
It is meaningless piffle at this stage agreed. Shouldnt stop a bit of musing on it though!
I mean it should be a slam dunk on percentage of people pissed about current situation, that is normally dock side hooker territory for the incumbent party. But Trump is so divisive I can see people going its fucking shit, but......orange man mental...pencil hoovers....
Not sure can take too much from CNN first exit poll data.
People are pissed about current state of things, don't think Biden was any good (but not that bad) and optimistic about the future.
CNN reports "voters have come out today and voted in the Presidential election", "expect both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to attract multiple votes".
There is a certain group of people who say what they think they should say.
At the end of the day, most people vote with their wallet
@DylanByers Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:
“It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”
I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
We do… Postal votes… Gulp.
Does anyone really sign anything anymore? Never actually thought about it now. But, yeah, it’s kinda antiquated when you think about it.
Sometimes sign for deliveries, with a finger, on the driver's handheld. Never looks like my signature and never looks the same twice.
Yeah, I do that. It’s just a meaningless bizarre squiggle isn’t it? I doubt I’d even recognise my own. Makes you wonder what on Earth is the point of it? I hadn’t thought about it until now.
Some of the older people in my law firm think that inserting a shitty jpeg scan of someone's signature into a Word document has some deeper meaning attached to it
More people say Kamala's views are too extreme than say the same about Trump.
Anyone who holds that opinion is a moron. Trump has all kinds of extremely extreme views. Mass deportation, going after political rivals, shutting down broadcasters, immunity for police violence, death penalty for all sorts of stuff, massive tariffs on trade, etc.
The political centre we are used to is not the same as the one these respondents are used to, tbf.
Remember: 2008 saw a shock win for Obama in Indiana. It's very white. If the trends in the Kansas, Iowa and New Hampshire polls (i.e. very white states being more pro-Harris than expected) are to come to pass, you might see it there first.
Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2020 and 19 in 2016.
If it looks like it's going to be above 19, it could be an indication of Trump outperforming. By contrast a number below 15 would probably be a positive for Harris.
As you know rumours of Trump overperforming in NJ persist. If that happens, the odds that Kamala's medium rank (NH/MN/VA) will fall to Trump is considerably larger, and you can wave goodbye to the battleground states.
Rory on TRiP suggested the list of battleground states is always wrong because the actual swing states change each time.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
Not sure can take too much from CNN first exit poll data.
People are pissed about current state of things, don't think Biden was any good (but not that bad) and optimistic about the future.
CNN reports "voters have come out today and voted in the Presidential election", "expect both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to attract multiple votes".
There is a certain group of people who say what they think they should say.
At the end of the day, most people vote with their wallet
Boy are they going to get a shock if Trump implements a 10% across the board tariff.
"Lawyer, legal commentator, fighter for democracy. Prosecuted Trump University @ NY AG. Commentator, MSNBC. Creator of book/podcast/newsletter TAKING DOWN TRUMP."
Not sure can take too much from CNN first exit poll data.
People are pissed about current state of things, don't think Biden was any good (but not that bad) and optimistic about the future.
CNN reports "voters have come out today and voted in the Presidential election", "expect both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to attract multiple votes".
There is a certain group of people who say what they think they should say.
At the end of the day, most people vote with their wallet
Boy are they going to get a shock if Trump implements a 10% across the board tariff.
As you know rumours of Trump overperforming in NJ persist. If that happens, the odds that Kamala's medium rank (NH/MN/VA) will fall to Trump is considerably larger, and you can wave goodbye to the battleground states.
Rory on TRiP suggested the list of battleground states is always wrong because the actual swing states change each time.
Well yes, but the state polls capture that. And actually the last few elections have been, for me, remarkable in the extent to which that hasn't happened.
I suspect the top issue being democracy probably favours Harris, but again this is all about as helpful as the reading of entrails, as these exit polls usually are.
(But quite sad that in America in 2024 the very concept of “Democracy” is the leading issue. It should be a given).
I suspect the top issue being democracy probably favours Harris, but again this is all about as helpful as the reading of entrails, as these exit polls usually are.
(But quite sad that in America in 2024 the very concept of “Democracy” is the leading issue. It should be a given).
As you know rumours of Trump overperforming in NJ persist. If that happens, the odds that Kamala's medium rank (NH/MN/VA) will fall to Trump is considerably larger, and you can wave goodbye to the battleground states.
Rory on TRiP suggested the list of battleground states is always wrong because the actual swing states change each time.
He's been telling everyone that Harris will win so convincingly that it won't matter.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
@jimsciutto On track for record turnout here in MI:
Michigan is already seeing record voter turnout, on track to match its highest election turnout on record, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told CNN. There has been “extraordinary engagement and turnout all across the state,” said Benson, who has been visiting polling sites throughout the day. “There are literally parties at the polls – people dancing, people celebrating, which is kind of what today should be,” she said.
One hour and five minutes until the polls start to close in Indiana and Kentucky.
That's a bit early isn't it?
I think its partial in Indiana at 11pm GMT
Polls close in Indiana 6pm local time but that's Eastern time for part of the state and the time one hour behind for the rest of the state. Therefore no result shall be called by the networks until 7pm Eastern/12 midnight GMT.
Question - the pollsters who haven't been able to spot the underground surge of women (a) registering, (b) organising and, (c) voting Harris whether they're allowed to or not. Are they now picking these voters up and being told the truth when doing their "what voters think" polls? Or just going off what their husbands want?
One hour and five minutes until the polls start to close in Indiana and Kentucky.
That's a bit early isn't it?
I think its partial in Indiana at 11pm GMT
Polls close in Indiana 6pm local time but that's Eastern time for part of the state and the time one hour behind for part of the state. Therefore no result shall be called by the networks until 7pm Eastern/12 midnight GMT.
We will start getting vote numbers reported almost immediately though.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
That's very mildly positive for Kamala - because you'd expect her to get the Democracy and Abortion votes, while Trump would get Economy and Immigration.
Looks 50-50 to me given there will be some anti abortion people prioritising it and some Trumpists fear for Democracy too.
Yeah, but there will be some people worried about Trump tariffs in the economy grouping too. And likewise, some people with relatives in Mexico who they want to be able to join them.
Why would people vote Trump if being anti abortion was their major concern?
Depends. People might think that although it is their major concern the economy is the most important thing for the country.
It doesn't say 'anti abortion' though, does it? It just says abortion. There will be sone people for whom restricting the right to abortion is the most important issue.
Comments
Is that a fake Melania he’s appearing with?
https://x.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1853873880500150426
2,4 Trump
5?
...
Trump couldn't win in 2020, fewer people support him now than then. Nothing has deterred me from that viewpoint.
I hadn’t quite anticipated DebateGate and all that flowed from it, but I could have anticipated the gaffes/decline and it becoming a prominent issue.
Dem 28-7
Economy 6-25
Abortion 11-3
Immigration 0-11
FP 1-1 (2 Green)
Dem 46 Rep 47
10 vs 12 or 55 vs 45?
Trump: Too extreme 45% to 51% not too extreme
I hope to be proved wrong though..
At the end of the day, most people vote with their wallet
Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2020 and 19 in 2016.
If it looks like it's going to be above 19, it could be an indication of Trump outperforming. By contrast a number below 15 would probably be a positive for Harris.
Tristan Snell
@TristanSnell
·
1h
Just finished knocking on doors in Philly
Literally EVERYONE I talked to had already voted
I’ve never seen that in 25+ years of volunteering for campaigns — even for Obama in 2008
https://x.com/TristanSnell
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/how-exit-polls-work-election/index.html
After half a century of Republican candidates promising that they would seriously, maybe, not entirely, if it worked out, deliver judges.
"Lawyer, legal commentator, fighter for democracy. Prosecuted Trump University @ NY AG. Commentator, MSNBC. Creator of book/podcast/newsletter TAKING DOWN TRUMP."
Ok.......
And actually the last few elections have been, for me, remarkable in the extent to which that hasn't happened.
(But quite sad that in America in 2024 the very concept of “Democracy” is the leading issue. It should be a given).
And, yes, it's very early.
Polls close in Indiana 6pm local time but that's Eastern time for part of the state and the time one hour behind for the rest of the state. Therefore no result shall be called by the networks until 7pm Eastern/12 midnight GMT.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/PortalPictures/november-2024/0611-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1_05_11.png?imwidth=640
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
https://www.270towin.com/news/2024/10/27/2024-general-election-poll-closing-times_1673.html#google_vignette