A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
They can’t speak Russian either, and don’t appear to realise that some of the white guys wearing green are actually ‘good’ guys.
I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.
Have I imagined this??
But you have to then endure the endless ads for boner pills...and screeching of BRRREEAAAAKKKKKINNNNGGG NEEWSSS....the only thing worth watching is the John King, when they let him on screen for 2 mins an hour.
There has to be a better option?
It's a hard choice between boner pills and reading about how many dumps @Stocky has taken.
Having traded in 18 markets on this election, I am just reviewing where I am with all of them. I will share a few thoughts, firstly hoping that someone may add some words of wisdom, but also to share where I still see opportunity. All my bets use the Kelly criterion. The presidential election itself. I have Harris at 59% chance, the market has her about 39%,so I am betting quite heavily on her. The popular vote, I have her at 84% and the market has her at 77%, so I have a reasonable bet on her to win the PV. The market has the chance of the winner of the popular vote not winning the college at 39%, and I think only 25% chance of this, so I am betting against this one quite strongly. On the electoral college votes |I see value in Harris winning 300 or more votes, but also between 210 and 239, The market seems to be overrating the chance of a close result in EC terms, but it doesn’t take much to get some way from 269. Trump EC votes should correspond to the Harris ones, but they don’t quite do so and all the value seems in the bands that correspond to him losing. Several states I have traded I now see little value either way: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, Similarly the Senate Control market On the other hand I see value in backing Harris to win some easy wins in Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota, and some harder ones in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia. Good luck everyone.
Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
Or...(bear with me on this)...he is a showman but ultimately isn't interested in/brave enough to be the figurehead in a civil war, so is blinking first and preparing the ground for a gracious concession and retirement to Mar-a-Lago.
No?
Me neither, sadly.
It's possible.
Remember the formulation of Boris as he really wanted to Be Prime Minister, but had little interest in actually Doing Prime Ministering? I can imagine something similar for The Donald- he craves the win, but not the prize. After all, it's four years of work, and you can't delegate it all.
Maybe even four years in a nice quiet jail is preferable to four years in the White House. That's assuming he can't flee somewhere hard to extridite from.
The queues to vote in the US would disgrace a banana republic. I've never had to wait longer than five minutes in the UK so my endurance level has never been tested. But I suspect it would be less than two hours.
One observation I would make on here as everywhere else, people flirt with voting Trump but don't actually say they will.
I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.
This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
RCS reaction a tad more extreme, but the guy is a muppet who is paid because he has a famous mum.
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
They can’t speak Russian either, and don’t appear to realise that some of the white guys wearing green are actually ‘good’ guys.
“They told us that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, so we thought they were all fair game.”
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
Quite right too. I know loads of people with two and a half tonne Rangers, HiLux and Amorok trucks. Some use them as farm trucks but most use them as family SUVs with low profile load bed covers making them look like a car ( we'll sort of) . A two door truck remains a commercial vehicle.
I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.
Have I imagined this??
It's free on sky at the moment.
Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights, and all events of US political significance.
Whether that's CNNI taking CNN US or not I'm not sure - it may be that Sky opt in to CNN US - but they always do - they have done so for the last 20 to 30 years.
Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
I just don't get it. PA has early voting. 2 million applied.
Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
I just don't get it. PA has early voting. 2 million applied.
Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
That's a bit of a naughty comment under the circumstances.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
It's also not true.
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet". They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
He voted for Remain. And was a key figure in one of the biggest debt issuing govts of all time.
When he was leader after the labour budget in the house he called Brown the pickpocket chancellor aided and abetted by Blair the Artful Dodger. Blair laughed his way threw it. Brown just looked serious.
'Living Nostradamus' makes a chilling prediction about the US election - and warns of 'alarming' consequences
A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
It won't. All that will happen is that they will accelerate the roll-out of PHEV powertrains. Its the diseasal engine which attracts the mega tax, not the size of the vehicle.
One observation I would make on here as everywhere else, people flirt with voting Trump but don't actually say they will.
I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.
This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.
Oh, it's quite possible that there are shy Trumpers. It's also quite possible there are shy Harristers.
We simply don't know. And won't know for another... checks... four or five hours.
From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
People were buying 6-seater pick-up trucks through their ltd companies as a cheap way to buy a large SUV-type vehicle for personal use. HMRC have been angling to close this loophole for a while.
If you genuinely need a pick-up truck for your business you can buy a single cab pick-up instead which will have a larger bed & thus be more suitable for work use. Those will continue to be charged the commercial vehicle tax rate.
Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
I just don't get it. PA has early voting. 2 million applied.
Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
Why don't they have a functioning democracy with enough polling stations and workers to let everyone who wants to vote within around 10 minutes?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
It's also not true.
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Perhaps he meant black votes were 13% of the total electorate,
I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.
Have I imagined this??
It's free on sky at the moment.
Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.
Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.
And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
Yes, and it's already started.
Sky channel 506 is showing CNN US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.
My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
It's also not true.
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Hodges is almost certainly talking about the difference between white and non-white turnout.
Trump watching the coverage with Farage and Musk tonight is quite interesting. Given Farage’s comments earlier and Musk’s need to maintain his reputation, one hopes it substantially reduces a petulant “it was rigged” outburst before dawn. Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s been told, if you lose and go quietly into the night, we’ll let you. If you make a scene then you’ll die in a room with no windows.
I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.
Have I imagined this??
It's free on sky at the moment.
Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.
Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.
And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
Yes, and it's already started.
Sky channel 506 showing US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.
My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
The first 8hrs of coverage are always the "Exit Poll".....
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
It's also not true.
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Hodges is almost certainly talking about the difference between white and non-white turnout.
I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.
Have I imagined this??
It's free on sky at the moment.
Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.
Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.
And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
Yes, and it's already started.
Sky channel 506 showing US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.
My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
The first 8hrs of coverage are always the "Exit Poll".....
NBC News is apparently expecting around 159.4 million votes to be cast in total, which is only a modest increase from the 158.4 million cast in 2020. Not sure how reliable that forecast is.
I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.
Alex Rogers @arogDC Rudy Giuliani shows up to Trump’s polling station in the Mercedes convertible he was ordered to surrender to Georgia poll workers for defaming them, acc to the driver.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
I still remember the byelection in Scotland where the LibDems gained it from Labour, and as the returning officer was standing up to speak, Betfair was showing a 98% chance of a Labour hold.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
I still remember the byelection in Scotland where the LibDems gained it from Labour, and as the returning officer was standing up to speak, Betfair was showing a 98% chance of a Labour hold.
NBC News is apparently expecting around 159.4 million votes to be cast in total, which is only a modest increase from the 158.4 million cast in 2020. Not sure how reliable that forecast is.
I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
It's also not true.
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Perhaps he meant black votes were 13% of the total electorate,
Hague’s piece is indeed, abject, not for opposing Trump, but for its fawning over Starmer’s government.
@Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.
WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.
Hague is now firmly on the left of the Tories now having been on the right of it in 2001.
Why? There are more Labour voting Methodists and Roman Catholics and Pentecostals in the UK than amongst the C of E. The C of E congregation is more Tory voting than nationally though yes its clergy is largely left leaning, with the exception of a few conservative evangelical or Anglo Catholic clergy
'Living Nostradamus' makes a chilling prediction about the US election - and warns of 'alarming' consequences
A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
It's also not true.
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Perhaps he meant black votes were 13% of the total electorate,
The betting markets are remaining as they have been for the past couple of weeks - Harris value, Trump overstated IMHO. The data we have simply doesn’t bear it out. If you trust the polls, it’s a toss up.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
Whale noises.
Exactly. These kind of anecdata don't mean a damn thing. We all thought Clinton was winning in 2016 until the results started coming in and didn't fit the expectations. It still took hours for the penny to drop for most of the media.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
Did you miss OGH’s graphs showing the betting movement on Brexit night and on Trump, first time around? And on May’s GE triumph? All you can conclude is that no-one putting down money before there is any declared information has any clue whatsoever.
6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA
They have a shot at winning the election without PA if they can take two of NC, GA and AZ.
I can't see them doing that if they don't take PA, but that they are nervous about it is not really unexpected considering it was barely won last time and polls have been super tight, more so than with Arizona. Unless it's code for super worried.
The betting markets are remaining as they have been for the past couple of weeks - Harris value, Trump overstated IMHO. The data we have simply doesn’t bear it out. If you trust the polls, it’s a toss up.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
Did you miss OGH’s graphs showing the betting movement on Brexit night and on Trump, first time around? And on May’s GE triumph? All you can conclude is that no-one putting down money before there is any declared information has any clue whatsoever.
Miss a graph by OGH? What are you suggesting!?
I agree that it's mostly smoke, but I'd prefer a trend towards the lady I want to win than one against her.
Trump watching the coverage with Farage and Musk tonight is quite interesting. Given Farage’s comments earlier and Musk’s need to maintain his reputation, one hopes it substantially reduces a petulant “it was rigged” outburst before dawn. Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s been told, if you lose and go quietly into the night, we’ll let you. If you make a scene then you’ll die in a room with no windows.
I don't buy it, he's causes so many unnecessary problems for himself by his inability to control himself, I cannot see how they would persuade him to act more responsibly.
The only thing that reduces his calling it rigged is if he wins.
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
They can’t speak Russian either, and don’t appear to realise that some of the white guys wearing green are actually ‘good’ guys.
Hopefully this experiment of hiring his people out as mercenaries will not go well for Mr Kim.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
Hodges has the occasional moment, but his main problem is the quantity he has to produce means he repeats himself ad nauseum, and doesn't have the range of takes or insight to take up all the space he has to fill, so he fills out the rest with the anodyne, silly, or ignorant.
I know exactly three people who I am sure, or strongly suspect in one case, of being Trump fans. One is less noisy than 2020 when they were highlighting how many Democrats would vote for Trump, the other two are relatively understated but do bring subtly bring in points about illegals voting, Harris's annoying laugh etc, and the latest thing Musk has said, and without being exultant seem happy.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
My back garden used to be part of a Georgian tenterfield.
Etymology of the day is 'on tenterhooks' (not 'tenderhooks'): tenters, once a common sight, are wooden frames on which freshly milled cloth is stretched so that it dries without shrinking. To be on tenterhooks is to be as tense and taut as the cloth itself. https://x.com/susie_dent/status/1853865203772846357
6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.
In all probability, the results won't all be within 1%. In all probability, most of the swing states will be clear victories for one of the two candidates. And most likely it will all be in one direction.
Which way?
I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)
Comments
@skynewsniall
Is there an American equivalent of “squeaky bum time”?
The presidential election itself. I have Harris at 59% chance, the market has her about 39%,so I am betting quite heavily on her.
The popular vote, I have her at 84% and the market has her at 77%, so I have a reasonable bet on her to win the PV. The market has the chance of the winner of the popular vote not winning the college at 39%, and I think only 25% chance of this, so I am betting against this one quite strongly.
On the electoral college votes |I see value in Harris winning 300 or more votes, but also between 210 and 239, The market seems to be overrating the chance of a close result in EC terms, but it doesn’t take much to get some way from 269. Trump EC votes should correspond to the Harris ones, but they don’t quite do so and all the value seems in the bands that correspond to him losing.
Several states I have traded I now see little value either way: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, Similarly the Senate Control market
On the other hand I see value in backing Harris to win some easy wins in Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota, and some harder ones in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia.
Good luck everyone.
Remember the formulation of Boris as he really wanted to Be Prime Minister, but had little interest in actually Doing Prime Ministering? I can imagine something similar for The Donald- he craves the win, but not the prize. After all, it's four years of work, and you can't delegate it all.
Maybe even four years in a nice quiet jail is preferable to four years in the White House. That's assuming he can't flee somewhere hard to extridite from.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris#cm34oy6xy001c3b6m4acfmyek
@Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.
WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.
Whether that's CNNI taking CNN US or not I'm not sure - it may be that Sky opt in to CNN US - but they always do - they have done so for the last 20 to 30 years.
Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.
In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.
If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.
HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
Is there any other institution in which there's such a large political gap between the laity and the clergy, or their equivalents?
We simply don't know. And won't know for another... checks... four or five hours.
People were buying 6-seater pick-up trucks through their ltd companies as a cheap way to buy a large SUV-type vehicle for personal use. HMRC have been angling to close this loophole for a while.
If you genuinely need a pick-up truck for your business you can buy a single cab pick-up instead which will have a larger bed & thus be more suitable for work use. Those will continue to be charged the commercial vehicle tax rate.
Not sure quite when. But there was all that odd stuff with Angelina Jolie when he was Foreign Secretary as well.
Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.
And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
Sky channel 506 is showing CNN US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.
My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
Either a typo, or a fool.
NewsWire
@NewsWire_US
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12m
MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING
Seems identical to the 62% at the head of the previous thread.
I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results
@arogDC
Rudy Giuliani shows up to Trump’s polling station in the Mercedes convertible he was ordered to surrender to Georgia poll workers for defaming them, acc to the driver.
https://x.com/arogDC/status/1853839248408883518
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With a bit of luck the party is shortly to be over for Trump's helpful elves.
His number is bullshit. Just ignore him.
Why? There are more Labour voting Methodists and Roman Catholics and Pentecostals in the UK than amongst the C of E. The C of E congregation is more Tory voting than nationally though yes its clergy is largely left leaning, with the exception of a few conservative evangelical or Anglo Catholic clergy
I agree that it's mostly smoke, but I'd prefer a trend towards the lady I want to win than one against her.
The only thing that reduces his calling it rigged is if he wins.
New York state is a straight fight between Harris and Trump. No third party candidates managed to get on the ballot. (Write-ins are allowed though).
MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466
There's my useless anecdote for the day.
Now AI. Do we think it will catch on?
Etymology of the day is 'on tenterhooks' (not 'tenderhooks'): tenters, once a common sight, are wooden frames on which freshly milled cloth is stretched so that it dries without shrinking. To be on tenterhooks is to be as tense and taut as the cloth itself.
https://x.com/susie_dent/status/1853865203772846357
Which way?
I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)