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State of the Union, Election Day – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    @gideonrachman

    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

    They can’t speak Russian either, and don’t appear to realise that some of the white guys wearing green are actually ‘good’ guys.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited November 5
    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    They have a shot at winning the election without PA if they can take two of NC, GA and AZ.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Good question..

    @skynewsniall

    Is there an American equivalent of “squeaky bum time”?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    But you have to then endure the endless ads for boner pills...and screeching of BRRREEAAAAKKKKKINNNNGGG NEEWSSS....the only thing worth watching is the John King, when they let him on screen for 2 mins an hour.

    There has to be a better option?
    It's a hard choice between boner pills and reading about how many dumps @Stocky has taken.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055
    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    maxh said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
    Or...(bear with me on this)...he is a showman but ultimately isn't interested in/brave enough to be the figurehead in a civil war, so is blinking first and preparing the ground for a gracious concession and retirement to Mar-a-Lago.








    No?









    Me neither, sadly.
    It's possible.

    Remember the formulation of Boris as he really wanted to Be Prime Minister, but had little interest in actually Doing Prime Ministering? I can imagine something similar for The Donald- he craves the win, but not the prize. After all, it's four years of work, and you can't delegate it all.

    Maybe even four years in a nice quiet jail is preferable to four years in the White House. That's assuming he can't flee somewhere hard to extridite from.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sacked Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,183

    On topic, poll companies herd together to avoid blame.

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    That means nothing.
    The queues to vote in the US would disgrace a banana republic. I've never had to wait longer than five minutes in the UK so my endurance level has never been tested. But I suspect it would be less than two hours.
  • FossFoss Posts: 992
    darkage said:

    One observation I would make on here as everywhere else, people flirt with voting Trump but don't actually say they will.

    I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.

    This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.

    So like '92 there then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,277

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
    He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
    RCS reaction a tad more extreme, but the guy is a muppet who is paid because he has a famous mum.
    Had
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    Musk, Trump and Farage in the same room for pizza tonight.

    Gotta be the start of a joke surely?
    Beer, KOOL Aid, Weeeeee
    Spoons Beers and Bigmacs .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    @gideonrachman

    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

    They can’t speak Russian either, and don’t appear to realise that some of the white guys wearing green are actually ‘good’ guys.
    “They told us that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, so we thought they were all fair game.”
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Russian bomb threats closing polling stations in 90% African American areas of Georgia. Yikes.

    https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris#cm34oy6xy001c3b6m4acfmyek
  • rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    MiaooooowwwwHarrisisdoingweellllinGeorgiaaa...

    Miaooooowww!!!
    Mail chap. I doubt he has done his homework.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sacked Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

    Not now!!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Hague’s piece is indeed, abject, not for opposing Trump, but for its fawning over Starmer’s government.

    @Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.

    WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.
  • On topic, poll companies herd together to avoid blame.

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    That means nothing.
    Yup.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited November 5

    From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.

    Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.

    Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/farmers-pounded-second-time-labour-tax-grab-budget/

    Quite right too. I know loads of people with two and a half tonne Rangers, HiLux and Amorok trucks. Some use them as farm trucks but most use them as family SUVs with low profile load bed covers making them look like a car ( we'll sort of) . A two door truck remains a commercial vehicle.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited November 5

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights, and all events of US political significance.

    Whether that's CNNI taking CNN US or not I'm not sure - it may be that Sky opt in to CNN US - but they always do - they have done so for the last 20 to 30 years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    AnneJGP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
    I just don't get it. PA has early voting. 2 million applied.

    Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    The image of voters in the voting booths on the front of the BBC News website is very funny....Mr Yellow T-Shirt and suspenders is about 9ft tall !!!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    Of course you say that on the day
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    AnneJGP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
    I just don't get it. PA has early voting. 2 million applied.

    Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
    People worried about ballot tampering
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
    He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
    That's a bit of a naughty comment under the circumstances.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    It's also not true.

    Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.

    In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.

    If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.

    HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
  • moonshine said:


    Dopermean said:

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet".
    They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
    He voted for Remain. And was a key figure in one of the biggest debt issuing govts of all time.
    When he was leader after the labour budget in the house he called Brown the pickpocket chancellor aided and abetted by Blair the Artful Dodger. Blair laughed his way threw it. Brown just looked serious.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    MikeL said:

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
    Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited November 5
    HYUFD said:

    'Living Nostradamus' makes a chilling prediction about the US election - and warns of 'alarming' consequences

    A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

    Athos Salomé, 38, who is often referred to as the 'living Nostradamus', has previously had a number of foresights turn out to be true. He predicted the coronavirus pandemic and Queen Elizabeth's death.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14043415/Living-Nostradamus-makes-chilling-prediction-election-warns-alarming-consequences.html

    He predicted that QEII would die? Gee, that’s some really amazing psychic power there to predict the death of a woman in her 90s.
  • FffsFffs Posts: 69
    Scott_xP said:

    Good question..

    @skynewsniall

    Is there an American equivalent of “squeaky bum time”?

    Squeaky fanny time, one assumes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    .
    Sean_F said:

    Hague’s piece is indeed, abject, not for opposing Trump, but for its fawning over Starmer’s government.

    @Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.

    WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.

    I'm too much of a traditionalist, which no doubt they trade on.

    Is there any other institution in which there's such a large political gap between the laity and the clergy, or their equivalents?
  • darkage said:

    From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.

    Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.

    Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/farmers-pounded-second-time-labour-tax-grab-budget/

    Quite a good way to deal with car bloat.
    It won't. All that will happen is that they will accelerate the roll-out of PHEV powertrains. Its the diseasal engine which attracts the mega tax, not the size of the vehicle.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    darkage said:

    One observation I would make on here as everywhere else, people flirt with voting Trump but don't actually say they will.

    I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.

    This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.

    Oh, it's quite possible that there are shy Trumpers. It's also quite possible there are shy Harristers.

    We simply don't know. And won't know for another... checks... four or five hours.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    edited November 5

    From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.

    Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.

    Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/farmers-pounded-second-time-labour-tax-grab-budget/

    This only applies (IIRC) to double cab pick-ups: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/double-cab-pick-ups-to-be-treated-as-company-cars

    People were buying 6-seater pick-up trucks through their ltd companies as a cheap way to buy a large SUV-type vehicle for personal use. HMRC have been angling to close this loophole for a while.

    If you genuinely need a pick-up truck for your business you can buy a single cab pick-up instead which will have a larger bed & thus be more suitable for work use. Those will continue to be charged the commercial vehicle tax rate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    William Hague broke his duck some time ago, I think.

    Not sure quite when. But there was all that odd stuff with Angelina Jolie when he was Foreign Secretary as well.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664

    MikeL said:

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
    Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
    We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.

    Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.

    And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    edited November 5
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
    Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
    We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.

    Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.

    And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
    Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,058

    AnneJGP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Queues like that are crazy. Everyone who casts a vote must be really committed to the principle of voting. Only time I've seen queues like that in the UK was for the funeral of HM Queen Elizabeth.
    I just don't get it. PA has early voting. 2 million applied.

    Why leave it until today and queue for five hours????
    Why don't they have a functioning democracy with enough polling stations and workers to let everyone who wants to vote within around 10 minutes?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    edited November 5
    I hope Trump is thrashed out of existence. Ydoethur has the right idea about Trump.....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    It's also not true.

    Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.

    In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.

    If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.

    HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
    Perhaps he meant black votes were 13% of the total electorate,
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited November 5

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
    Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
    We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.

    Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.

    And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
    Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
    Yes, and it's already started.

    Sky channel 506 is showing CNN US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.

    My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    It's also not true.

    Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.

    In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.

    If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.

    HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
    Hodges is almost certainly talking about the difference between white and non-white turnout.

    Either a typo, or a fool.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Trump watching the coverage with Farage and Musk tonight is quite interesting. Given Farage’s comments earlier and Musk’s need to maintain his reputation, one hopes it substantially reduces a petulant “it was rigged” outburst before dawn. Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s been told, if you lose and go quietly into the night, we’ll let you. If you make a scene then you’ll die in a room with no windows.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
    Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
    We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.

    Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.

    And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
    Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
    Yes, and it's already started.

    Sky channel 506 showing US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.

    My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
    The first 8hrs of coverage are always the "Exit Poll".....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    edited November 5
    If I wake up at 6am in the Uk tomorrow (God willing) what chance is there of knowing the result.svp
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,183

    .

    Sean_F said:

    Hague’s piece is indeed, abject, not for opposing Trump, but for its fawning over Starmer’s government.

    @Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.

    WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.

    I'm too much of a traditionalist, which no doubt they trade on.

    Is there any other institution in which there's such a large political gap between the laity and the clergy, or their equivalents?
    Hague is running neck and neck against Mandelson for the Oxford chancellorship at the moment so the slightest whiff of Trumpism would be disastrous.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Garden bomb shelter all setup and ready to go.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    .
    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    darkage said:

    PJH said:

    eek said:

    So it looks like I'm doing some work that requires a couple of days in London every week

    It looks easier (and way cheaper) to stay in Romford and commute via the Lizzie line rather than anywhere more central..

    That is an excellent plan. I've always wondered why more people don't do that.

    (Written whilst on the Lizzie Line, heading back to Romford after a day in the office)
    I stayed in Barking a few times in the travelodge, £60 a night, it is all the same thing.
    Or there’s one just down from Ilford station, where if you get lucky, your room could have a panoramic view of the back of the town hall.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Trump’s a bit early, no?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459

    If I wake up at 6am tomorrow (God willing) what chance is there of knowing the result.svp

    It really depends how close it is in a few important states.
  • nova said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    It's also not true.

    Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.

    In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.

    If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.

    HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
    Hodges is almost certainly talking about the difference between white and non-white turnout.

    Either a typo, or a fool.
    Or both?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...

    William Hague broke his duck some time ago, I think.

    Not sure quite when. But there was all that odd stuff with Angelina Jolie when he was Foreign Secretary as well.

    He's turned into a genuine statesman. It's a shame he's been sidelined since Brexit.
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
    Sky always shows CNN US in full on election nights.
    Do they? I thought under Murdoch, their US partner was Fox News, now, with Comcast, wouldn't it be MSNBC?
    We'te talking about the Sky platform - Sky channel 506.

    Nothing to do with the news partner of Sky News.

    And yes they always do - have watched every night for last 20+ years whilst posting on here.
    Oh, sorry, I misread what you were saying. You mean the CNN International switches to the CNN US feed on election night.
    Yes, and it's already started.

    Sky channel 506 showing US coverage right now - Wolf Blitzer hosting at the moment.

    My previous point was that if watching CNNI right now in a Bangkok hotel you might get a different version of CNNI. But Sky channel 506 will always take CNN US on election / other big nights.
    The first 8hrs of coverage are always the "Exit Poll".....
    Thanks. I will have a look later!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    ?

    Seems identical to the 62% at the head of the previous thread.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    NBC News is apparently expecting around 159.4 million votes to be cast in total, which is only a modest increase from the 158.4 million cast in 2020. Not sure how reliable that forecast is.

    I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    If I wake up at 6am in the Uk tomorrow (God willing) what chance is there of knowing the result.svp

    Pretty good. I don't think it's going to be close.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Alex Rogers
    @arogDC
    Rudy Giuliani shows up to Trump’s polling station in the Mercedes convertible he was ordered to surrender to Georgia poll workers for defaming them, acc to the driver.

    https://x.com/arogDC/status/1853839248408883518


    ===

    With a bit of luck the party is shortly to be over for Trump's helpful elves.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    Fffs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Good question..

    @skynewsniall

    Is there an American equivalent of “squeaky bum time”?

    Squeaky fanny time, one assumes.
    Eww
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    I still remember the byelection in Scotland where the LibDems gained it from Labour, and as the returning officer was standing up to speak, Betfair was showing a 98% chance of a Labour hold.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Today/tonight was also going to bring out a few people like this.
  • rcs1000 said:

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    I still remember the byelection in Scotland where the LibDems gained it from Labour, and as the returning officer was standing up to speak, Betfair was showing a 98% chance of a Labour hold.

    I like your comment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Andy_JS said:

    NBC News is apparently expecting around 159.4 million votes to be cast in total, which is only a modest increase from the 158.4 million cast in 2020. Not sure how reliable that forecast is.

    I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results

    Which would somewhat discredit Musky Baby's screeches about millions of illegals illegally voting.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    .

    Sean_F said:

    Hague’s piece is indeed, abject, not for opposing Trump, but for its fawning over Starmer’s government.

    @Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.

    WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.

    I'm too much of a traditionalist, which no doubt they trade on.

    Is there any other institution in which there's such a large political gap between the laity and the clergy, or their equivalents?
    The National Trust.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    It's also not true.

    Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.

    In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.

    If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.

    HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
    Perhaps he meant black votes were 13% of the total electorate,
    Even that's not true.

    His number is bullshit. Just ignore him.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    edited November 5
    .

    ...

    William Hague broke his duck some time ago, I think.

    Not sure quite when. But there was all that odd stuff with Angelina Jolie when he was Foreign Secretary as well.

    He's turned into a genuine statesman. It's a shame he's been sidelined since Brexit.
    He is the opposite of the trope that you start off liberal and turn conservative as you get older. His style even changed backwards as he aged.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,277
    Sean_F said:

    Hague’s piece is indeed, abject, not for opposing Trump, but for its fawning over Starmer’s government.

    @Casino_Royale I have never regretted leaving the C o E, which ought to just affiliate to the Labour Party.

    WRT Florida, Trump is plainly winning easily, but it’s no longer a swing State.

    Hague is now firmly on the left of the Tories now having been on the right of it in 2001.

    Why? There are more Labour voting Methodists and Roman Catholics and Pentecostals in the UK than amongst the C of E. The C of E congregation is more Tory voting than nationally though yes its clergy is largely left leaning, with the exception of a few conservative evangelical or Anglo Catholic clergy

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Chris said:

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    ?

    Seems identical to the 62% at the head of the previous thread.
    Well 1.59 is shorter than I've seen it previously - was 1.65 or so an hour ago.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Whale noises.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    HYUFD said:

    'Living Nostradamus' makes a chilling prediction about the US election - and warns of 'alarming' consequences

    A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

    Athos Salomé, 38, who is often referred to as the 'living Nostradamus', has previously had a number of foresights turn out to be true. He predicted the coronavirus pandemic and Queen Elizabeth's death.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14043415/Living-Nostradamus-makes-chilling-prediction-election-warns-alarming-consequences.html

    He predicted that QEII would die? Gee, that’s some really amazing psychic power there to predict the death of a woman in her 90s.
    What did happen to @Dura_Ace ’s death sweep ?
  • rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    It's also not true.

    Turnout of African Americans in Georgia was about 63% in 2020. It lagged white turnout, but it was much, much higher than Dan Hodges number.

    In total, about 30% of votes cast in Georgia last time were by African Americans. Early voting this time has them at about 27-28%, so African Americans are turning out less than last time.

    If you are looking at the Georgia election solely on racial grounds, you would say Trump is doing better in 2024 than 2020.

    HOWEVER, the gender split looks much better for the Democrats than in 2020, and the geographical split looks pretty decent too. So, I wouldn't over-obsess on one number.
    Perhaps he meant black votes were 13% of the total electorate,
    Even that's not true.

    His number is bullshit. Just ignore him.
    Quite so.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    The betting markets are remaining as they have been for the past couple of weeks - Harris value, Trump overstated IMHO. The data we have simply doesn’t bear it out. If you trust the polls, it’s a toss up.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Fixed it for you
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Whale noises.
    Exactly. These kind of anecdata don't mean a damn thing. We all thought Clinton was winning in 2016 until the results started coming in and didn't fit the expectations. It still took hours for the penny to drop for most of the media.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Omnium said:

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
    Did you miss OGH’s graphs showing the betting movement on Brexit night and on Trump, first time around? And on May’s GE triumph? All you can conclude is that no-one putting down money before there is any declared information has any clue whatsoever.
  • Andy_JS said:


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Today/tonight was also going to bring out a few people like this.
    Guy Fawkes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.
  • Andy_JS said:


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Today/tonight was also going to bring out a few people like this.
    Guy Fawkes.
    No doubt.
  • rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Fixed it for you
    Your cat knows more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Andy_JS said:

    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    They have a shot at winning the election without PA if they can take two of NC, GA and AZ.
    I can't see them doing that if they don't take PA, but that they are nervous about it is not really unexpected considering it was barely won last time and polls have been super tight, more so than with Arizona. Unless it's code for super worried.
  • The betting markets are remaining as they have been for the past couple of weeks - Harris value, Trump overstated IMHO. The data we have simply doesn’t bear it out. If you trust the polls, it’s a toss up.

    I do not trust them.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
    Did you miss OGH’s graphs showing the betting movement on Brexit night and on Trump, first time around? And on May’s GE triumph? All you can conclude is that no-one putting down money before there is any declared information has any clue whatsoever.
    Miss a graph by OGH? What are you suggesting!?

    I agree that it's mostly smoke, but I'd prefer a trend towards the lady I want to win than one against her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    moonshine said:

    Trump watching the coverage with Farage and Musk tonight is quite interesting. Given Farage’s comments earlier and Musk’s need to maintain his reputation, one hopes it substantially reduces a petulant “it was rigged” outburst before dawn. Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s been told, if you lose and go quietly into the night, we’ll let you. If you make a scene then you’ll die in a room with no windows.

    I don't buy it, he's causes so many unnecessary problems for himself by his inability to control himself, I cannot see how they would persuade him to act more responsibly.

    The only thing that reduces his calling it rigged is if he wins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    @gideonrachman

    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

    They can’t speak Russian either, and don’t appear to realise that some of the white guys wearing green are actually ‘good’ guys.
    Hopefully this experiment of hiring his people out as mercenaries will not go well for Mr Kim.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Interesting fact

    New York state is a straight fight between Harris and Trump. No third party candidates managed to get on the ballot. (Write-ins are allowed though).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    viewcode said:

    If I wake up at 6am in the Uk tomorrow (God willing) what chance is there of knowing the result.svp

    Pretty good. I don't think it's going to be close.
    For Harris?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
    He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
    Hodges has the occasional moment, but his main problem is the quantity he has to produce means he repeats himself ad nauseum, and doesn't have the range of takes or insight to take up all the space he has to fill, so he fills out the rest with the anodyne, silly, or ignorant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting fact

    New York state is a straight fight between Harris and Trump. No third party candidates managed to get on the ballot. (Write-ins are allowed though).

    There are also some congressional districts with only one candidate
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    Andy_JS said:


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Today/tonight was also going to bring out a few people like this.
    Tomorrow much more so...
  • Andy_JS said:


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Today/tonight was also going to bring out a few people like this.
    Tomorrow much more so...
    Hopefully not.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting fact

    New York state is a straight fight between Harris and Trump. No third party candidates managed to get on the ballot. (Write-ins are allowed though).

    There are also some congressional districts with only one candidate
    True, although that's not so unusual. I can't remember ever seeing a presidential election where there were only two candidates in a particular state.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    I know exactly three people who I am sure, or strongly suspect in one case, of being Trump fans. One is less noisy than 2020 when they were highlighting how many Democrats would vote for Trump, the other two are relatively understated but do bring subtly bring in points about illegals voting, Harris's annoying laugh etc, and the latest thing Musk has said, and without being exultant seem happy.

    There's my useless anecdote for the day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Duly noted.

    Now AI. Do we think it will catch on? :smiley:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    My back garden used to be part of a Georgian tenterfield.

    Etymology of the day is 'on tenterhooks' (not 'tenderhooks'): tenters, once a common sight, are wooden frames on which freshly milled cloth is stretched so that it dries without shrinking. To be on tenterhooks is to be as tense and taut as the cloth itself.
    https://x.com/susie_dent/status/1853865203772846357
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    kle4 said:

    6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.

    In all probability, the results won't all be within 1%. In all probability, most of the swing states will be clear victories for one of the two candidates. And most likely it will all be in one direction.

    Which way?

    I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)
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