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State of the Union, Election Day – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited November 10 in General

So here we are, finally at election day. And as the comedian Emo Phillips said, ‘It’s hard to believe that this long, crazy election will finally be over in a few months.’ Because it’s that close.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,910
    edited November 5
    *deleted*
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    Baldwin County, GA the one to watch says Wasserman.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,194

    Thank you for all of this James.

    Yes, thank you @jamesdoyle

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,194
    I have to log off for a bit. As you know I am heavily invested in Dems winning Minnesota and Virginia. I would be grateful if in my absence you could tell me whether those bets will win. Happy to accept a "yes" or "no": it's the rationale I need, not reassurance.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,704
    My favourite Emo Philips gag:

    It was my wife's birthday, so I asked her what she wanted.

    "Oh, I don't know - something expensive that I don't need...."

    So I bought her a course of chemotherapy....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    Many thanks for all your hard work.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    viewcode said:

    I have to log off for a bit. As you know I am heavily invested in Dems winning Minnesota and Virginia. I would be grateful if in my absence you could tell me whether those bets will win. Happy to accept a "yes" or "no": it's the rationale I need, not reassurance.

    You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
  • viewcode said:

    I have to log off for a bit. As you know I am heavily invested in Dems winning Minnesota and Virginia. I would be grateful if in my absence you could tell me whether those bets will win. Happy to accept a "yes" or "no": it's the rationale I need, not reassurance.

    My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,423

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
  • Small moan about the graphic used for this piece - it's a week out of date. For example, Electoral-Vote now gives the election to Harris 276 to 262.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I find the pressure to build something novel stressful.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    Jigsaws are my go to (when the table is declutterred, that is)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    While we're waiting, I thought I'd share my experiences of the USA (three visits between 2007 and 2011), hopefully without boring you all to death, but it might be of interest to people like @Jim_Miller and @SeaShantyIrish2 :)

    Back in 2007, I attended a conference at Snowbird, Utah. In January, flying from London to Salt Lake City via a layover at Chicago O'Hare. Didn't stray too far from the conference centre/hotel, except to take the aerial tram (cable car) to the top of Hidden Peak, 11,000 feet up, and affording a very decent view of Salt Lake City in the distance. Coming back from Salt Lake City, my domestic flight was delayed by snow for at least two hours, only just made it to O'Hare on time to catch the London flight!

    In 2009, I attended the same conference but this time at Santa Fe, New Mexico, in February, again flying via O'Hare to Albuquerque, and then a shuttle bus. Much better location, with its famed neat Adobe buildings all over the town. Also had a spare day to do my first ever train ride Stateside, Santa Fe to Albuquerque (walked a teeny section of Route 66!) and back on the New Mexico Rail Runner. The route was very scenic, although as we went through a Native American Reserve part of the way through, we were told not to take any pictures from the window. Most of that week was very sunny and reasonably warm. No snow delay this time around!

    My third (and thus far last) stay in the US was my longest. Actually worked the first three months of 2011 at the University of Colorado at Boulder. I flew direct from London to Denver, then shuttle bus to Boulder. Stayed in Uni accommodation, subsidised, but decent, as in an entire apartment. Weather fluctuated wildly in January that year, the day after I arrived there was a blizzard, whereas three weeks later, I walked around the Uni campus without a coat. Had free travel in the Greater Denver area (the RTD), so took advantage of that to spend quite a bit of what free time I had exploring Denver (just one hour away by bus) and doing the whole of the Light Rail network (as it was in 2011 - it's expanded a lot since!). I was actually a little apprehensive regarding availability of vegetarian food, but I needn't have worried. Boulder and even Denver actually had a decent selection! Also remember seeing The King's Speech in Boulder, and True Grit re-make in Denver. Back then, of course, Denver was still in good shape, but perhaps presaging @Leon's recent observations, the main bus station had quite a few homeless people staying there.
  • For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    Is that her name?
  • viewcode said:

    I have to log off for a bit. As you know I am heavily invested in Dems winning Minnesota and Virginia. I would be grateful if in my absence you could tell me whether those bets will win. Happy to accept a "yes" or "no": it's the rationale I need, not reassurance.

    Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited November 5
    Useful stats overall but 538 has Harris narrowly ahead in the chart of EC votes why is that not showing?

    At the end of the day if Harris wins it will not be due to anti Trump votes in my view but scraping home in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because inflation is lower than it is US wide there (and she may pick up Iowa too which also has below average inflation) and unemployment also overall lower in the bluewall states than US wide.

    By contrast I expect Trump to sweep the sunbelt with Nevada unemployment the highest of any US state and inflation in Georgia for instance also above average.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    It can be di-stressing if young children are involved :wink:

    Hopefully not with students, although they might all end up fighting over the blue bricks?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,514
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    Is that her name?
    Yep - or Miss Over if being more formal.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    And only slightly cheaper than a pair of shoes...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    viewcode said:

    I have to log off for a bit. As you know I am heavily invested in Dems winning Minnesota and Virginia. I would be grateful if in my absence you could tell me whether those bets will win. Happy to accept a "yes" or "no": it's the rationale I need, not reassurance.

    My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair.
    This can be read in two ways, either as a positive intervention for viewcode or a negative one if your purpose is to be on the other side of viewcode's bets!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    The GOP won Guam in 2022, Harris has slightly improved from the generic ballot there actually.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Afternoon all :)

    Very little of any value to contribute (twas ever thus) but to what extent have the markets and the "guesstimates" been driven by polling which has been weaponised in this election in a way we only saw glimpses of in our election (People Polling?).

    If you get polling biased toward one side it creates an impression, drives perceptions, drives markets.

    As the line had it in the late and probably unlamented Babylon 5 spinoff, Crusade, (you see, @TSE, you're not the only one who can put in obscure sci fi references) and should be asked of all pollsters and polls.

    "Who do you serve? And who do you trust?"
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
  • Selebian said:

    viewcode said:

    I have to log off for a bit. As you know I am heavily invested in Dems winning Minnesota and Virginia. I would be grateful if in my absence you could tell me whether those bets will win. Happy to accept a "yes" or "no": it's the rationale I need, not reassurance.

    My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair.
    This can be read in two ways, either as a positive intervention for viewcode or a negative one if your purpose is to be on the other side of viewcode's bets!
    Nah, he's losing out on profits by denying himself a Betfair account, and sometimes my biggest winners in a market is laying.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Very little of any value to contribute (twas ever thus) but to what extent have the markets and the "guesstimates" been driven by polling which has been weaponised in this election in a way we only saw glimpses of in our election (People Polling?).

    If you get polling biased toward one side it creates an impression, drives perceptions, drives markets.

    As the line had it in the late and probably unlamented Babylon 5 spinoff, Crusade, (you see, @TSE, you're not the only one who can put in obscure sci fi references) and should be asked of all pollsters and polls.

    "Who do you serve? And who do you trust?"

    I can no longer watch Crusade after realising that Captain Gideon of the Excalibur is also Lumbergh from Office Space, and I keep imagining an badly-run, micromanaged ship where everybody has to come in for extra shifts over the weekend.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I think this is a good bet, albeit not really for the reasons you cite. It is highly likely there will be systematic polling error. If there is, then one candidate is likely to substantially outperform, and if it's Trump then New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota are the three likeliest flips beyond the headline battleground States.

    Against that, the polls in Kansas, New Hampshire and Iowa all have Harris doing extremely well in very white Midwest and/or North Eastern states. And Minnesota is a very white state. Plus Tim Walz was the Governor (and was a pretty popular one as I understand it.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    edited November 5

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303
    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    WTF is up with THREE threads within less than a hour? Makes making any kind of substantive comment a waste of time.

    Cut it out!
  • Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    You should.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,545
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    My No 2 Grandson would get on well with you. Lego was his 'diversionary activity' while at University.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    You should.
    Okay, on a quieter politics day though!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,312
    This is the counter point to Iowa, Kansas, NH isn't it.

    The models, for all their sins, still do have Trump edging it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,288
    edited November 5

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I always have this vision of when I hear parents saying they completed some lego set of Jnr being gifted this mega lego set for Birthday or Christmas present, only for dad to be there putting it together as soon as Jnr is asleep.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303
    edited November 5

    Baldwin County, GA the one to watch says Wasserman.

    Given that basically all of Georgia is going to drop simultaneously, and given it will account for 70-75% of total state wide vote, I'm not sure I would do anything other than look at the overall vote position in the State, and extrapolate from there.

    Trump ahead: the election is over, he's won nationwide. Why? Because even with a big gender gap in favour of Democrats, and even with the Democratic strongholds of Fulton, DeKalb and Cobb having higher than average turnout, he's leading. It's not going to be particularly close. Pile on Trump.

    Harris up by more than 5 percentage points: she's going to win Georgia. Why? Because if three quarters of the vote has been counted and someone is 5+ points behind, they need to win on the day by a massive amount - around 20 percentage points, maybe more. And if Harris wins Georgia, I think it's highly, highly likely she wins the Presidency.

    If Harris is up by 0 to 2 points, then Georgia is almost certainly going Red, but you probably can't read too much into the nationwide picture yet. If she's up by 3 to 5 points, then she needs to be favourite for Georgia, but -again- you probably can't read too much into the national picture.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    Good afternoon PB.

    Polling stations are open across America and I understand polling is "brisk"

    See you all later 👍
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I always have this vision of when I here parents saying they completed some lego set of Jnr being gifted this mega lego set for Birthday or Christmas present, only for dad to be there putting it together as soon as Jnr is asleep.
    I feel seen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    It's R + 11% on all FL votes so far.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,288
    edited November 5
    It is obviously a very quiet day in politics if the talk is all about lego, value of twitter and future of AI....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,887
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    Maybe it's worth betting on her for 2028.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,312
    edited November 5
    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Was the uptick in Republican registration this cycle due to Republicans having the more interesting primary season to participate in?

    A bit like PB Tory Labour three quidders.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657
    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,545
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    You should.
    Okay, on a quieter politics day though!
    There's an Irish one coming up soon. Textbook STV election.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,822
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    Is that her name?
    Lego is what she keeps saying to him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303
    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    It's R + 11% on all FL votes so far.
    Early votes in Florida was R+11 and that's swamping the total.
    Early votes D/R/N was 33/44/23 so votes today are more Republican.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    Maybe it's worth betting on her for 2028.
    Perhaps £1 at 1000/1. She’s quite happy making a lot more money talking about politics, than she could ever make being involved with it.

    Really good debater though, I could listen to her and Bill Maher argue about politics for days on end - they agree on far more than they disagree. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpCDZXERKnQ
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,018
    There’s good reason for hope. Yesterday, I told the “cabbage” joke six times — and got good laughs each time.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    Is that her name?
    Lego is what she keeps saying to him.
    New Kids on the Block?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,312
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    Is it also on the day (a) rural - no queues (b) urban - huge queues
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790

    Small moan about the graphic used for this piece - it's a week out of date. For example, Electoral-Vote now gives the election to Harris 276 to 262.

    Bugger, sent TSE the wrong one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303
    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    Is it also on the day (a) rural - no queues (b) urban - huge queues
    Sounds perfectly plausible. Might or might not be accurate, but sounds plausible.
  • The NY rumour is quite interesting. This was the close Governor's race in 2022:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_New_York_gubernatorial_election#By_county

    For Trump to win the state, he would need to take Queens and run close in Brooklyn plus win Erie county (Buffalo) up state. It feels like it would require a significant switch of ethnic minority voters in NYC.

    New Jersey is probably a slightly easier target. Here is the 2021 Gubernatorial result

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_Jersey_gubernatorial_election

    Trump would need to flip some of the NYC suburban counties like Bergen or Passaic or close the gap in inner city areas like Camden and Jersey City.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    Why not just use pencil and paper ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    This seems to be tilting Trump’s way. So far
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
    Florida doesn't look at all close (okay, you may get snorkelling Republicans, and independents breaking for the Democrats, but nowhere near enough to overturn that margin). And, that is (qualified) good news for Democrats. It shows the Republicans building up a very strong lead where they do not need it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657
    edited November 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,545

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    Maybe it's worth betting on her for 2028.
    If Trump wins, will there be an election in 2028?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    Why not just use pencil and paper ?
    Some places are voting in a dozen elections/plebiscites.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    Cookie said:

    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    It can be di-stressing if young children are involved :wink:

    Hopefully not with students, although they might all end up fighting over the blue bricks?
    One of the best things I ever did with my daughter was a Lego day that the school did when she was 5. It was a physics teacher who had given up teaching to start a travelling lego club. What he provided was a base (roughly 9 inches by 6 inches) with the first three storeys of a building already in place - and a lightbulb in each one, with wires coming out the back. After a few initial hints from the ex-physics teacher, parents and children then set to completing the house from an absolutely massive stash of bricks. Free rein was given to imagination, but with the initial parameters, everything was to the same scale. (My daughter designed - and I helped a bit to build - a two storey house with a sticky-out swimming pool).
    Coup de Grace #1 was that all participants - that is, about 80 buildings - were then invited to place their buildings around a road layout. It was the most satisfying lego outcome of my life that far. It was a town which had grown organically but which made sense.
    Coup de Grace #2 was that everyone plugged their wires into a battery, and the lights were switched off, giving us the town at night.
    It was one of the happiest moments of my life.

    A slightly bittersweet post script: the following morning, my daughter said to me "I wonder what we'll be doing next week at Lego club?" Very hard to tell her that something so wonderful was just a one-off.
    My son's school has a Lego club for an hour after school every week. Each week, there's a theme for them to build to, and a vote afterwards.
  • Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
    Florida doesn't look at all close (okay, you may get snorkelling Republicans, and independents breaking for the Democrats, but nowhere near enough to overturn that margin). And, that is (qualified) good news for Democrats. It shows the Republicans building up a very strong lead where they do not need it.
    I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if the Dems are within 5% of the GOP in Florida
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    Is there a Spacex one catching the rocket?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    edited November 5
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
    FL:

    Total votes: 9,152,354
    Dem: 2,955,696
    R: 3,974,687
    NP: 1,955,901

    R lead D by 11%

    This is the vote as of now on VoteHub livefeed.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,288
    A series of parcel fires targeting courier companies in Poland, Germany and the UK were dry runs aimed at sabotaging flights to the US and Canada, Polish prosecutors say.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07912lxx33o
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
    FL:

    Total votes: 9,152,354
    Dem: 2,955,696
    R: 3,974,687
    NP: 1,955,901

    R lead D by 11%

    This is the vote as of now on VoteHub livefeed.

    Those aren't D or R votes though are they? Just the votes of voters registered as being affiliated with the party, which doesn't actually tell us how they voted?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    Why not just use pencil and paper ?
    Some places are voting in a dozen elections/plebiscites.
    And ?

    Count the presidential race first. Then the senate, then the house then the gubernatorial. Then state house senators, state house congressmen and so on in decreasing order of importance. Noone is going to give a hoot if the dog catcher takes a month to come in.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307
    edited November 5

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    Maybe it's worth betting on her for 2028.
    If Trump wins, will there be an election in 2028?
    Probably. The question is more whether it means very much.

    Remember, though, at the moment nobody knows anything. And anyone with isolated crumbs of information knows less than nothing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,887
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
    Florida doesn't look at all close (okay, you may get snorkelling Republicans, and independents breaking for the Democrats, but nowhere near enough to overturn that margin). And, that is (qualified) good news for Democrats. It shows the Republicans building up a very strong lead where they do not need it.
    I don't think you can call it good news for Harris. Trump's vote being slightly less efficient won't matter at all if there's a uniform swing in his favour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    Maybe it's worth betting on her for 2028.
    If Trump wins, will there be an election in 2028?
    Not a meaningful as in free and fair one that's for sure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    Is there a Spacex one catching the rocket?
    Ooh, now that’s an idea for them. Could be Christmas week 2025 sorted!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    Just think of the Peanut memes if Trump wins. Worth more than any amount of money.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
    Florida doesn't look at all close (okay, you may get snorkelling Republicans, and independents breaking for the Democrats, but nowhere near enough to overturn that margin). And, that is (qualified) good news for Democrats. It shows the Republicans building up a very strong lead where they do not need it.
    Florida isn't close. If it were, it would be a blow out for Kamala! But never say never.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
    Florida doesn't look at all close (okay, you may get snorkelling Republicans, and independents breaking for the Democrats, but nowhere near enough to overturn that margin). And, that is (qualified) good news for Democrats. It shows the Republicans building up a very strong lead where they do not need it.
    I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if the Dems are within 5% of the GOP in Florida
    Noted and bookmarked.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,657
    edited November 5
    ..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,229
    FPT...
    HYUFD said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    Most Reform voters are either small businessmen, in the armed forces or white working class private sector workers. So I doubt they are that bothered about Farage promising to slash the civil service and public sector administrators as long as he doesn't also slash the numbers of police, soldiers and doctors and nurses
    In June 2024, there were 5.94 million employed in the public sector (a 0.3% fall on the previous quarter). These are 34.1% in the NHS (obviously not all doctors and nurses), 25.3% in education, 20.5% in public administration, 8.8% other, 4.7% police, 3.5% other health and social work, 2.5% armed forces and 0.6% construction.

    You can't slash 80% of the public sector without eating into police, soldiers, doctors and nurses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html

    Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
    It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
    FL:

    Total votes: 9,152,354
    Dem: 2,955,696
    R: 3,974,687
    NP: 1,955,901

    R lead D by 11%

    This is the vote as of now on VoteHub livefeed.

    Those aren't D or R votes though are they? Just the votes of voters registered as being affiliated with the party, which doesn't actually tell us how they voted?
    Correct.

    Seems to be a lot of assumption flying about that registered voters will stick with party.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    She REFUSED to Listen: Inside Thatcher's Monetarism Experiment
    Sir Tim Lankester, Margaret Thatcher's first private secretary for economic affairs, discusses his new book "Inside Thatcher's Monetarism Experiment"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XntmE8UIghQ
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    Pulpstar said:

    Just think of the Peanut memes if Trump wins. Worth more than any amount of money.

    It was the squirrel that did it!!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,229
    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    If PB.com could provide Lego and cookies, that would be appreciated.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,229

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I find her pluralisation of Lego very distressing.
    It's how they speak in the US. It's their election. We should forgive them their linguistic errancies.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    Luntz:: "7pm the polls close in GA and NC. If Trump loses either, it will be a Harris victory."

  • A key point for Sir Alan Bates, which he has made before, is that the government needs to set deadlines for Horizon scandal victims to be given compensation.

    He has told MPs he has twice written to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in the past month to say "it needs to be finished by the end of March 2025".

    "I never received a response," Sir Alan said, adding: "Deadlines do need to be set. People have been waiting far too long."

    ---

    Another small straw in the wind that the #10 media operation isn't very good. This bloke (quite rightly) is going to make sure everybody knows if you dick him around, if you get a letter from him, probably good idea to get some sort of reply out ASAP.

    He was our post master years ago and had a wonderful business and was very popular

    Starmer needs to respond as Sir Alan is not someone to fall out with
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,303
    On the subject of timings...

    We will get the first numbers from Kentucky, where polls in the Eastern half of the stake close at 6pm first. So: not long after 11pm UK time, the first figures will start to show on the various news sites. There basically haven't been any polls from Kentucky (literally none on Trump v Harris), and Trump won it by 26 points in 2016. Almost all the Democrat votes (literally) are in two urban counties, with many of the rural ones coming in with 80+% numbers for Trump last time. Therefore, one probably can't read too much into early results.

    At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.

    At 12:30am UK time, North Carolina polls close. And they will drop - almost immediately - about 35% of the votes. Now - unlike with Georgia - I don't known the composition of the early votes there. But I think the Democrats would want to see a lead to be confident of being competitive in the State. We probably won't know for sure which way the State is pointing until 1:30am, when 65% of the vote will be in.

    Georgia, I've written on below, but by 1am UK time, we're going to have 75% of the state counted. At that point - unless it's something like Harris +3 - we're going to know the likely winner of the state.

    Virginia closed at 7pm Eastern (midnight UK), but it is a relatively slow counter. If @Renegade_pollster is right, though, we'll see some big Republican numbers early from here because rural areas report first. The same is true of New Hampshire, where - again - it will take some time for votes to be counted.

    We won't get anything from Michigan or Pennsylvania until 2am UK time, and Wisconsin will be 3am. That said, at least Wisconsin counts quickly. We should know the results of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 4am UK time, which will also be when Arizona drops. (Yes, Arizona gets its results out before Michigan.)

    Nevada I'm afraid probably won't report its first vote until 6am UK time, so I probably wouldn't stay up for that unless it was a complete nail biter.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    Ain’t no jokes Florida Election Day turnout update.. red surge this morning after just 1.5 hours

    R+24

    🔴 REP: 143,373 (48.53%)
    🔵 DEM: 73,148 (24.76%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 69,860 (23.65%)

    Now
    🔴 REP: 243,360 (47.5%)
    🔵 DEM: 183,524 (25.4%)
    🟡 NO PARTY: 173,673 (24,0%)

    R+22. This is fairly similar to the early vote stats. A bit more Republican but not much.

    The question is how many of the REPs actually vote DEM? Shy women
    And how many of the NO PARTY vote DEM? A lot.

    DEM taking Florida is 13/1 on Betfair. I think that is fair.
    I think the NYTimes is right on this one.

    Since 2018 Florida has been going backwards fast for the Democrats. Like Ohio, it simply isn't a swing state any more.
    Florida doesn't look at all close (okay, you may get snorkelling Republicans, and independents breaking for the Democrats, but nowhere near enough to overturn that margin). And, that is (qualified) good news for Democrats. It shows the Republicans building up a very strong lead where they do not need it.
    I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if the Dems are within 5% of the GOP in Florida
    Why should you be rewarded if D get within 5%?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,288
    edited November 5
    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    The one thing that was gear grinding for me about latest season of Slow Horses was the portrayal of the new head of MI5.
This discussion has been closed.