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State of the Union, Election Day – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    I'm reminded of the person who staked a million pounds on Remain winning the Brexit referendum. The odds probably weren't that great either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
    Is there no way for them to turn up in person and submit a provisional ballot to cure the situation if they have been falsely purged? In VA they can.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Business as usual.
  • I might watch Planes, Trains and Automobiles.

    Great film!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
    Is there no way for them to turn up in person and submit a provisional ballot to cure the situation if they have been falsely purged? In VA they can.
    Not "falsely purged" - they just don't trust the apparatus of the state, so refuse it.

    Could make it rather close. For Montana, that is.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    North Carolina early vote now up to 4,748k.

    Gender split holds at Women 55, Men 44, Unknown 1

    2020 vote = 5,524k
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited November 5
    USA total early vote now 80.6m.

    Still 53/44.

    PA another 100k in, now 1,877k. Still 56/43.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    I think I've fallen for turnout rumours in almost every election I've ever bet on.

    Not this time.

    So which ones aren't you falling for?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    There are about 3 bets in my life that I have thought were sure fire winners, basically spend the money you've won already. I'm 1/3 with those. Me feeling very confident is basically a very bad sign.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    this site linked earlier shows Trump's 'advantage' in Florida

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    it gets smaller every time I refresh the page
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    Foxy said:

    Presidential election anecdote:

    Yesterday evening we were watching the coverage on Sky News. When Trump appeared on screen, no reaction from our dog. When Kamala appeared, she sat up and paid attention to the TV.

    Place your bets accordingly.

    Do you think that's a Pointer?
    Did he Lurch to the screen?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    Aren't we all?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Scott_xP said:

    this site linked earlier shows Trump's 'advantage' in Florida

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    it gets smaller every time I refresh the page

    Are you reading it wrong then? It's consistently grown all day, now up to 250k on the day, nearly 1.1m in total voting.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    edited November 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
    New voting machine in New Jersey are NOT "electronic voting" though you do need to plug them in!

    NJ machines tabulate PAPER BALLOTS which are scanned into them.

    WHYY PBS - What to know about the new voting machines appearing in some — but not all — New Jersey counties

    The new voting machines offer an added layer of security by providing a paper trail, which older machines did not deliver.

    'https://whyy.org/articles/election-2024-new-jersey-new-voting-machines/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    this site linked earlier shows Trump's 'advantage' in Florida

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    it gets smaller every time I refresh the page

    That's what Stormy said...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    maaarsh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    this site linked earlier shows Trump's 'advantage' in Florida

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    it gets smaller every time I refresh the page

    Are you reading it wrong then? It's consistently grown all day, now up to 250k on the day, nearly 1.1m in total voting.
    Ahh - you're looking at the confected 'advantage figure at the top' - yes middle of the day voting is less R>D than first thing in the morning, so the percentage gets diluted - but the absolutely margin is steadily growing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    Of course they are. It is the whole game. Very high turnout in Philly should help as should the proportion of females in the early voting. But jeez, its close. Anyone saying otherwise is a liar.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
    He was very confident last time, but all his efforts at vote rigging weren't enough then.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Foxy said:

    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    Aren't we all?
    Just an interesting nugget in amongst the positive GOTV driven comments that make up most of it, seems to be the only hint of either side admitting they might be behind in a key state.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,058
    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    It'd be a bit weird not to be nervous about the results in the most pivotal state deciding the election.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    I'm reminded of the person who staked a million pounds on Remain winning the Brexit referendum. The odds probably weren't that great either.
    As a non bettor (at least to that extent) risking £1000 to win at most £137 seems like very expensive entertainment.
    Last time I admit to piling on whenever Biden went out to 10% after the result was known but I wouldn't have made viewcode's bet.

    A reminder that this is the US, so it is called by the networks, Trump will claim victory in the next 24 hours and not all the votes will be counted...even if you queued for hours to cast it.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    MikeL said:

    North Carolina early vote now up to 4,748k.

    Gender split holds at Women 55, Men 44, Unknown 1

    2020 vote = 5,524k

    I honestly think that this is the State that will tell us which way it is going to go and fairly early doors. @rcs1000 had an excellent post last night. They will give us the pre-election votes as a lump and that should tell us a lot one way or the other. I really can't see me getting to bed until that comes in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Start the count, start the count!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited November 5
    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    ...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
    Is there no way for them to turn up in person and submit a provisional ballot to cure the situation if they have been falsely purged? In VA they can.
    The same law prevented same day voter registration.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
    The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.

    The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
    The French method is even better. They count the votes at the polling station, which is often the Mairie, and then submit the results to the prefecture. That's why you get such detailed, commune-by-commune electoral maps. You can see, for each commune of around 200-300 people, precisely how many voted for each candidate.

    I'm sure there are a few villages where the vote tellers are crooked but the evidence of manipulation and fraud is very scant indeed.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426
    MikeL said:

    USA total early vote now 80.6m.

    Still 53/44.

    PA another 100k in, now 1,877k. Still 56/43.

    Is the general wisdom that women break for Harris at least as far as men break for Trump?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Ratters said:

    maaarsh said:

    CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA

    It'd be a bit weird not to be nervous about the results in the most pivotal state deciding the election.
    Of cours everyone is nervous in reality. But both campaigns then tell journalists they think they're winning. This is the only off record concession that they think they're behind somewhere key - specifically calling out the much weaker early vote position than prior elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    RobD said:

    Start the count, start the count!

    Start the count, stop the cu...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Dopermean said:

    MikeL said:

    USA total early vote now 80.6m.

    Still 53/44.

    PA another 100k in, now 1,877k. Still 56/43.

    Is the general wisdom that women break for Harris at least as far as men break for Trump?
    More because of abortion. Women are furious and rightly so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    I was puzzled to see the Dems winning Idaho and losing Maine, until I looked more closely and realised what it was.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Nevada will not begin counting until later. See my earlier post.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited November 5
    GIN1138 said:

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
    He went on that 'journey' so many Tory politicians take that seems to result in lots of highly-paid engagements.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
    The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.

    The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
    New Jersey is NOT using electronic voting, nor any other state EXCEPT for limited number of overseas military voters using DOD system.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Nevada will not begin counting until later. See my earlier post.
    Why don't they just spin a roulette wheel?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    .
    GIN1138 said:

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
    Emily Maitlis has also got high on her own supply as well: Taylor Swifts endorsement has not fundamentally changed the race.

    This just shows me British commentators are both up their own arseholes, and don't know anything.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet".
    They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
    The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.

    The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
    New Jersey is NOT using electronic voting, nor any other state EXCEPT for limited number of overseas military voters using DOD system.
    There are machines in the voting booths in New Jersey.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    maaarsh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    this site linked earlier shows Trump's 'advantage' in Florida

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    it gets smaller every time I refresh the page

    Are you reading it wrong then? It's consistently grown all day, now up to 250k on the day, nearly 1.1m in total voting.
    Only if the "Republicans" are actually voting Republican.

    Time will tell. I expect a serious number are not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited November 5
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Nevada will not begin counting until later. See my earlier post.
    Why don't they just spin a roulette wheel?
    deleted
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426
    DavidL said:

    Dopermean said:

    MikeL said:

    USA total early vote now 80.6m.

    Still 53/44.

    PA another 100k in, now 1,877k. Still 56/43.

    Is the general wisdom that women break for Harris at least as far as men break for Trump?
    More because of abortion. Women are furious and rightly so.
    Decisions, hold and hope for a small profit or venture back in at 2.6...
    My US colleague was amazed that the UK betting market wasn't far closer to the polls.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Meanwhile...

    @gideonrachman

    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    • 06pm Eastern Time = 23:00GMT 5th Nov 2024
    • 07pm Eastern Time = midnight
    • 08pm Eastern Time = 01:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
    • 09pm Eastern Time = 02:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
    • 09pm Eastern Time = 03:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
    • 10pm Eastern Time = 04:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
    • 11pm Eastern Time = 05:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
    VA is 07pm Eastern Time = midnight tonight, MN is 09pm Eastern = 2am tonight.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    @gideonrachman

    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

    Is oral not a thing in NK?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Nevada will not begin counting until later. See my earlier post.
    Why don't they just spin a roulette wheel?
    You just know it would land on 0 green....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    You have left out the greatest mystery of Ludwig. It was commissioned by the comedy department, so where are the jokes?
    Ouch....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Flashbacks to 2019.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Dopermean said:

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet".
    They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
    He voted for Remain. And was a key figure in one of the biggest debt issuing govts of all time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
    He didn't sound like he was confident. If he was he'd have claimed the win.

    Although I suspect you will be more chipper than me this time tomorrow. You can celebrate the end of the World as we know it whilst I cry in my beer.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile...

    @gideonrachman

    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

    I like this response

    ajdnyc82
    @ajdnyc82
    ·
    21m
    I can’t imagine them wanting to go back.

    “I’m a soldier of the DPRK and I request political asylum…and wifi…and like 20 minutes of privacy.”
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    They’re really shit at running elections aren’t they? I’ve never been in a queue longer than about 3 people here.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912

    Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks

    Wait until they find out what God got up to in his early years…
  • PJHPJH Posts: 637
    eek said:

    So it looks like I'm doing some work that requires a couple of days in London every week

    It looks easier (and way cheaper) to stay in Romford and commute via the Lizzie line rather than anywhere more central..

    That is an excellent plan. I've always wondered why more people don't do that.

    (Written whilst on the Lizzie Line, heading back to Romford after a day in the office)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited November 5

    .

    GIN1138 said:

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
    Emily Maitlis has also got high on her own supply as well: Taylor Swifts endorsement has not fundamentally changed the race.

    This just shows me British commentators are both up their own arseholes, and don't know anything.
    I am sure the News Agent does very well for Global, but it feels like a missed opportunity to expand outside the BBC bubble. Instead its even more homogeneous take on everything with 3 people with the exactly same world view.

    Breaking Points in the US intentionally has two presenters who have very different world views.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    On topic, poll companies herd together to avoid blame.
    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    That means nothing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    Flashbacks to 2019.
    Flashbacks to 2004... :((everybody thought queues meant Kerry. It didn't)
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,194

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
    Or...(bear with me on this)...he is a showman but ultimately isn't interested in/brave enough to be the figurehead in a civil war, so is blinking first and preparing the ground for a gracious concession and retirement to Mar-a-Lago.








    No?









    Me neither, sadly.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks

    I’ve got breakfast with the Archbishop of Canterbury* next week. I’ll have a word.

    *others will be present
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    PJH said:

    eek said:

    So it looks like I'm doing some work that requires a couple of days in London every week

    It looks easier (and way cheaper) to stay in Romford and commute via the Lizzie line rather than anywhere more central..

    That is an excellent plan. I've always wondered why more people don't do that.

    (Written whilst on the Lizzie Line, heading back to Romford after a day in the office)
    I stayed in Barking a few times in the travelodge, £60 a night, it is all the same thing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    They’re really shit at running elections aren’t they? I’ve never been in a queue longer than about 3 people here.
    They run them on the same principle as luxury clothes shops. You only let a few people in at a time to make it seem more exclusive. The longer the queue, the better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    biggles said:

    Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks

    Wait until they find out what God got up to in his early years…
    Paul Boateng chaired a Commission that commissioned a report to find out if there was systemic and structural racism, fully expecting to find some - and lo and behold, that's exactly what he got.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573

    maaarsh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    this site linked earlier shows Trump's 'advantage' in Florida

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    it gets smaller every time I refresh the page

    Are you reading it wrong then? It's consistently grown all day, now up to 250k on the day, nearly 1.1m in total voting.
    Only if the "Republicans" are actually voting Republican.

    Time will tell. I expect a serious number are not.
    Weird how Trump is motivating Republicans to turn out (and vote against him,,,) but not Dems to do the same.

    But your explanation is definitely the most likely.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    Presumably 13% of national voters...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    Musk, Trump and Farage in the same room for pizza tonight.

    Gotta be the start of a joke surely?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    Is the total turnout this year likely to be higher than the UK GE of 60%?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited November 5

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    But you have to then endure the endless ads for boner pills...and screeching of BRRREEAAAAKKKKKINNNNGGG NEEWSSS....the only thing worth watching is the John King, when they let him on screen for 2 mins an hour.

    There has to be a better option?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,266
    edited November 5

    Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks

    Not if you ask Tommy Robinson and Farage and their crew, apparently according to them the C of E is riddled with woke liberals opening the doors to the boats and immigrants and Sharia law.

    Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.

    The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.

    The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    One observation I would make on here as everywhere else, people flirt with voting Trump but don't actually say they will.

    I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.

    This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
    Sounds wrong to me. Quick google: Pew says only 36% of blacks voted in NONE of the last three election cycles.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Jersey anecdata

    took almost 90 minutes

    the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse

    The new machines are the problem

    Why not just use pencil and paper ?
    Hard to make a margin on commodities
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    DavidL said:

    MikeL said:

    North Carolina early vote now up to 4,748k.

    Gender split holds at Women 55, Men 44, Unknown 1

    2020 vote = 5,524k

    I honestly think that this is the State that will tell us which way it is going to go and fairly early doors. @rcs1000 had an excellent post last night. They will give us the pre-election votes as a lump and that should tell us a lot one way or the other. I really can't see me getting to bed until that comes in.
    Note that it's GA which is releasing all early vote at 1am UK - or that's what the Sec of State has said - on the dot of 1am I think we should still be careful to get confirmation that it has all been released - ie there aren't any counties missing.

    Not sure whether NC has stated explicitly that it is doing the same.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
    He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    "Polymarket
    @Polymarket
    The moment of truth...

    🟥 Trump • 61.8% chance
    🟦 Harris • 38.2% chance

    Election day."

    https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1853798564494811573
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    Musk, Trump and Farage in the same room for pizza tonight.

    Gotta be the start of a joke surely?
    Beer, KOOL Aid, Weeeeee
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SSantiagoMayer
    Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

    So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.

    https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480

    They’re really shit at running elections aren’t they? I’ve never been in a queue longer than about 3 people here.
    They run them on the same principle as luxury clothes shops. You only let a few people in at a time to make it seem more exclusive. The longer the queue, the better.
    Y

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
    Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
    He didn't sound like he was confident. If he was he'd have claimed the win.

    Although I suspect you will be more chipper than me this time tomorrow. You can celebrate the end of the World as we know it whilst I cry in my beer.
    He'll definitely claim the win, probably just in advance of the networks preparing to call a crucial swing state for Harris.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.

    Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.

    Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/farmers-pounded-second-time-labour-tax-grab-budget/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    Separate beds?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edited November 5
    rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    MiaooooowwwwHarrisisdoingweellllinGeorgiaaa...

    Miaooooowww!!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks

    Not if you ask Tommy Robinson and Farage and their crew, apparently according to them the C of E is riddled with woke liberals opening the doors to the boats and immigrants and Sharia law.

    Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.

    The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.

    The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
    Do black Anglicans all support Arsenal as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited November 5

    I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.

    Have I imagined this??

    It's free on sky at the moment.

    Isn't that CNN International, which is usually different to US CNN. Do they carry the same coverage for election night?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,183
    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    According to Google Maps the road outside is closed until 20 December.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,266
    'Living Nostradamus' makes a chilling prediction about the US election - and warns of 'alarming' consequences

    A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

    Athos Salomé, 38, who is often referred to as the 'living Nostradamus', has previously had a number of foresights turn out to be true. He predicted the coronavirus pandemic and Queen Elizabeth's death.'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14043415/Living-Nostradamus-makes-chilling-prediction-election-warns-alarming-consequences.html
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
    He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
    RCS reaction a tad more extreme, but the guy is a muppet who is paid because he has a famous mum.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317

    From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.

    Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.

    Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/farmers-pounded-second-time-labour-tax-grab-budget/

    Quite a good way to deal with car bloat.
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