OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
I'm reminded of the person who staked a million pounds on Remain winning the Brexit referendum. The odds probably weren't that great either.
OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
Is there no way for them to turn up in person and submit a provisional ballot to cure the situation if they have been falsely purged? In VA they can.
OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
Is there no way for them to turn up in person and submit a provisional ballot to cure the situation if they have been falsely purged? In VA they can.
Not "falsely purged" - they just don't trust the apparatus of the state, so refuse it.
OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
I'm reminded of the person who staked a million pounds on Remain winning the Brexit referendum. The odds probably weren't that great either.
As a non bettor (at least to that extent) risking £1000 to win at most £137 seems like very expensive entertainment.
OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
There are about 3 bets in my life that I have thought were sure fire winners, basically spend the money you've won already. I'm 1/3 with those. Me feeling very confident is basically a very bad sign.
Yesterday evening we were watching the coverage on Sky News. When Trump appeared on screen, no reaction from our dog. When Kamala appeared, she sat up and paid attention to the TV.
the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse
The new machines are the problem
The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.
The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
Are you reading it wrong then? It's consistently grown all day, now up to 250k on the day, nearly 1.1m in total voting.
Ahh - you're looking at the confected 'advantage figure at the top' - yes middle of the day voting is less R>D than first thing in the morning, so the percentage gets diluted - but the absolutely margin is steadily growing.
CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA
Of course they are. It is the whole game. Very high turnout in Philly should help as should the proportion of females in the early voting. But jeez, its close. Anyone saying otherwise is a liar.
CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA
Aren't we all?
Just an interesting nugget in amongst the positive GOTV driven comments that make up most of it, seems to be the only hint of either side admitting they might be behind in a key state.
OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
I'm reminded of the person who staked a million pounds on Remain winning the Brexit referendum. The odds probably weren't that great either.
As a non bettor (at least to that extent) risking £1000 to win at most £137 seems like very expensive entertainment.
Last time I admit to piling on whenever Biden went out to 10% after the result was known but I wouldn't have made viewcode's bet.
A reminder that this is the US, so it is called by the networks, Trump will claim victory in the next 24 hours and not all the votes will be counted...even if you queued for hours to cast it.
I honestly think that this is the State that will tell us which way it is going to go and fairly early doors. @rcs1000 had an excellent post last night. They will give us the pre-election votes as a lump and that should tell us a lot one way or the other. I really can't see me getting to bed until that comes in.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:
THE RESPONSE
Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.
At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.
After all, I paid a grand for the ticket...
VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
Total waged: £1000 Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55 Potential profit: £137.55 Potential loss: £1000.
Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?
Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.
On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
Is there no way for them to turn up in person and submit a provisional ballot to cure the situation if they have been falsely purged? In VA they can.
The same law prevented same day voter registration.
the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse
The new machines are the problem
The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.
The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
The French method is even better. They count the votes at the polling station, which is often the Mairie, and then submit the results to the prefecture. That's why you get such detailed, commune-by-commune electoral maps. You can see, for each commune of around 200-300 people, precisely how many voted for each candidate.
I'm sure there are a few villages where the vote tellers are crooked but the evidence of manipulation and fraud is very scant indeed.
CNN have Democrats admitting they're nervous about PA
It'd be a bit weird not to be nervous about the results in the most pivotal state deciding the election.
Of cours everyone is nervous in reality. But both campaigns then tell journalists they think they're winning. This is the only off record concession that they think they're behind somewhere key - specifically calling out the much weaker early vote position than prior elections.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
He went on that 'journey' so many Tory politicians take that seems to result in lots of highly-paid engagements.
the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse
The new machines are the problem
The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.
The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
New Jersey is NOT using electronic voting, nor any other state EXCEPT for limited number of overseas military voters using DOD system.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
Emily Maitlis has also got high on her own supply as well: Taylor Swifts endorsement has not fundamentally changed the race.
This just shows me British commentators are both up their own arseholes, and don't know anything.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet". They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
the line is longer now. They expect it to get worse
The new machines are the problem
The Dutch are pretty smart and they abolished electronic voting about 10 years ago after using them for a while.
The amusing thing is that almost no-one who works in IT or technology, perhaps with the exception of a handful of blockchain evengelicals, wants anything to do with any electronic method of voting.
The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
New Jersey is NOT using electronic voting, nor any other state EXCEPT for limited number of overseas military voters using DOD system.
There are machines in the voting booths in New Jersey.
Is the general wisdom that women break for Harris at least as far as men break for Trump?
More because of abortion. Women are furious and rightly so.
Decisions, hold and hope for a small profit or venture back in at 2.6... My US colleague was amazed that the UK betting market wasn't far closer to the polls.
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.
Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.
We shall see (probably in 2034).
You have left out the greatest mystery of Ludwig. It was commissioned by the comedy department, so where are the jokes?
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet". They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
He voted for Remain. And was a key figure in one of the biggest debt issuing govts of all time.
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
I like this response
ajdnyc82 @ajdnyc82 · 21m I can’t imagine them wanting to go back.
“I’m a soldier of the DPRK and I request political asylum…and wifi…and like 20 minutes of privacy.”
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
When he was Con leader he was actually thought to be a rather extreme right-winger lol!
Emily Maitlis has also got high on her own supply as well: Taylor Swifts endorsement has not fundamentally changed the race.
This just shows me British commentators are both up their own arseholes, and don't know anything.
I am sure the News Agent does very well for Global, but it feels like a missed opportunity to expand outside the BBC bubble. Instead its even more homogeneous take on everything with 3 people with the exactly same world view.
Breaking Points in the US intentionally has two presenters who have very different world views.
He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
Alternatively he's very confident that he's won so can afford to be magnanimous.
Or...(bear with me on this)...he is a showman but ultimately isn't interested in/brave enough to be the figurehead in a civil war, so is blinking first and preparing the ground for a gracious concession and retirement to Mar-a-Lago.
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
They’re really shit at running elections aren’t they? I’ve never been in a queue longer than about 3 people here.
They run them on the same principle as luxury clothes shops. You only let a few people in at a time to make it seem more exclusive. The longer the queue, the better.
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
Wait until they find out what God got up to in his early years…
Paul Boateng chaired a Commission that commissioned a report to find out if there was systemic and structural racism, fully expecting to find some - and lo and behold, that's exactly what he got.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
Is the total turnout this year likely to be higher than the UK GE of 60%?
I have a dim memory that CNN made itself free to view in last POTUS election result night.
Have I imagined this??
But you have to then endure the endless ads for boner pills...and screeching of BRRREEAAAAKKKKKINNNNGGG NEEWSSS....the only thing worth watching is the John King, when they let him on screen for 2 mins an hour.
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
Not if you ask Tommy Robinson and Farage and their crew, apparently according to them the C of E is riddled with woke liberals opening the doors to the boats and immigrants and Sharia law.
Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.
The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.
The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
One observation I would make on here as everywhere else, people flirt with voting Trump but don't actually say they will.
I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.
This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Black turnout was 13% in 2020? God that’s atrocious.
Sounds wrong to me. Quick google: Pew says only 36% of blacks voted in NONE of the last three election cycles.
I honestly think that this is the State that will tell us which way it is going to go and fairly early doors. @rcs1000 had an excellent post last night. They will give us the pre-election votes as a lump and that should tell us a lot one way or the other. I really can't see me getting to bed until that comes in.
Note that it's GA which is releasing all early vote at 1am UK - or that's what the Sec of State has said - on the dot of 1am I think we should still be careful to get confirmation that it has all been released - ie there aren't any counties missing.
Not sure whether NC has stated explicitly that it is doing the same.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
They’re really shit at running elections aren’t they? I’ve never been in a queue longer than about 3 people here.
They run them on the same principle as luxury clothes shops. You only let a few people in at a time to make it seem more exclusive. The longer the queue, the better.
From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
Not if you ask Tommy Robinson and Farage and their crew, apparently according to them the C of E is riddled with woke liberals opening the doors to the boats and immigrants and Sharia law.
Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.
The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.
The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
'Living Nostradamus' makes a chilling prediction about the US election - and warns of 'alarming' consequences
A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Why does this guy keep getting quoted?
He's paid more than we are to keep an eye on all this stuff.
RCS reaction a tad more extreme, but the guy is a muppet who is paid because he has a famous mum.
From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
Comments
Could make it rather close. For Montana, that is.
Gender split holds at Women 55, Men 44, Unknown 1
2020 vote = 5,524k
Still 53/44.
PA another 100k in, now 1,877k. Still 56/43.
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
it gets smaller every time I refresh the page
The British system might appear old fashioned but works brilliantly, they count the votes in each town and the results are almost all finished within 12 hours.
NJ machines tabulate PAPER BALLOTS which are scanned into them.
WHYY PBS - What to know about the new voting machines appearing in some — but not all — New Jersey counties
The new voting machines offer an added layer of security by providing a paper trail, which older machines did not deliver.
'https://whyy.org/articles/election-2024-new-jersey-new-voting-machines/
A reminder that this is the US, so it is called by the networks, Trump will claim victory in the next 24 hours and not all the votes will be counted...even if you queued for hours to cast it.
https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
I'm sure there are a few villages where the vote tellers are crooked but the evidence of manipulation and fraud is very scant indeed.
This just shows me British commentators are both up their own arseholes, and don't know anything.
They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.
So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights.
https://x.com/SSantiagoMayer/status/1853860984982548480
Time will tell. I expect a serious number are not.
My US colleague was amazed that the UK betting market wasn't far closer to the polls.
@gideonrachman
A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.
- 06pm Eastern Time = 23:00GMT 5th Nov 2024
- 07pm Eastern Time = midnight
- 08pm Eastern Time = 01:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
- 09pm Eastern Time = 02:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
- 09pm Eastern Time = 03:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
- 10pm Eastern Time = 04:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
- 11pm Eastern Time = 05:00GMT 6th Nov 2024
VA is 07pm Eastern Time = midnight tonight, MN is 09pm Eastern = 2am tonight.https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/church-of-england-must-practise-what-it-preaches-on-racism-bhtwx97ks
Although I suspect you will be more chipper than me this time tomorrow. You can celebrate the end of the World as we know it whilst I cry in my beer.
ajdnyc82
@ajdnyc82
·
21m
I can’t imagine them wanting to go back.
“I’m a soldier of the DPRK and I request political asylum…and wifi…and like 20 minutes of privacy.”
(Written whilst on the Lizzie Line, heading back to Romford after a day in the office)
@DPJHodges
·
3m
Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Breaking Points in the US intentionally has two presenters who have very different world views.
No?
Me neither, sadly.
*others will be present
But your explanation is definitely the most likely.
NEW with
@maggieNYT
:
Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Surprise!
https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993
Have I imagined this??
Gotta be the start of a joke surely?
There has to be a better option?
Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.
The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.
The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
I think I am the only person on here who definitively said they would actually do it. I realise it doesn't count for much, hiding behind a pseudonym on the internet, but I think it is a real issue, people won't actually say they will (or would) do it in these circles, presumably because they fear he will get elected and it will all go wrong (very possible), or otherwise because through fear of social ostracisation.
This has led me to a possible insight - people talk about 'shy Harris' voters. There may well be just as many, or more, shy Trump voters. I guess we will find out in soon.
Not sure whether NC has stated explicitly that it is doing the same.
@Polymarket
The moment of truth...
🟥 Trump • 61.8% chance
🟦 Harris • 38.2% chance
Election day."
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1853798564494811573
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/farmers-pounded-second-time-labour-tax-grab-budget/
Miaooooowww!!!
A psychic who successfully predicted the Microsoft global outage has claimed the US is on the 'brink of fragmentation' ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Athos Salomé, 38, who is often referred to as the 'living Nostradamus', has previously had a number of foresights turn out to be true. He predicted the coronavirus pandemic and Queen Elizabeth's death.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14043415/Living-Nostradamus-makes-chilling-prediction-election-warns-alarming-consequences.html