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State of the Union, Election Day – politicalbetting.com

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  • ...

    Summary of the reliable information we have so far:

    1 - We don't really know anything.
    2 - We don't really know anything.
    3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.

    That's it.
    Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.

    @rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).

    Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.

    Very good post.

    A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.

    It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.

    It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.

    On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.

    There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
    Spot on!
    Go to a movie.

    Have a meal.

    Settle down about midnight.

    Go to bed about half one, when Harris has clearly won Georgia, North Carolina...
    I wish I had your confidence.

    LBC callers have been trolling me on my journey home and I couldn't cope with Mr Ed's Trump ramping last time out. With William Glenn at it this time too I will be having heart palpitations. Perhaps it is better for the nerves to wait it out for some tangible evidence rather than panic over the anecdota which sadly appears to be very Trump heavy.
    LBC. Hmm. Not a very reliable source of information.
  • FossFoss Posts: 992
    edited November 5
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
    The novels the final three series of Game of Thronea are based on have never even been published...
    And probably never will be...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    Does it float?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460

    Summary of the reliable information we have so far:

    1 - We don't really know anything.
    2 - We don't really know anything.
    3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.

    That's it.
    Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.

    @rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).

    Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.

    Pollsters may as well have fun. If Trump wins, there may not be another presidential election betting market in the future.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    31m
    Florida still looking very strong for Trump. In contrast some (again, very, very early) positive numbers for Harris coming out of Nevada.
    Isn't Dan Hodges the Prof Peston of reporting on elections?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @NewsWire_US

    MICHIGAN SECRETARY OF STATE SAYS ON TRACK TO BREAK TURNOUT RECORDS
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    edited November 5
    TimT said:

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    The Titanic at the Roswell exhibit was stunning. I always forget how to post photos here. If you can remind me, I can post.
    Googled it. Here goes the Lego model Titanic photo from Roswell:

    https://imgur.com/a/ZaVZfD7
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Harris will win. I will stake my reputation on it.

    If I get this right, it's 2/3 predictions for me right since 2019.

    You've got two to three predictions right since 2019?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
  • ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: Trump voting in West Palm Beach atm.

    He'll be voting in 157 other locations across the course of the day.
    Can he teleport?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: Trump voting in West Palm Beach atm.

    He'll be voting in 157 other locations across the course of the day.
    Can he teleport?
    The size of his - arms - are something else.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    edited November 5

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    A acquaintance of mine has that, and built it. He had fun.

    (My largest-ever Technics Lego model was... large. I never counted the pieces, but it would be well over 10,000.

    Edit: and since there's nothing else to talk about today, here's a small part of the model:


    (Apols for the messy room...)
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 153
    TOPPING said:

    maaarsh said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    Not sure that's fair - Slow Horses feels like a rare beacon of normal annual seasons in a world where post Covid you're lucky to get a series every 2 years now.

    Stranger things relies on child actors and they're still waiting till half of them are 30 to wrap up.
    Pre-Covid it was absolutely true all the streaming platform ran on at least a season a year. I am sure COVID and the strikes have had an impact. Even then, it isn't 5-10 years between seasons. The BBC never have, that's the point. Peaky Blinders took 10 years to make just 36 episodes. No way a Netflix doesn't put the hammer down when they get a massive hit like that.
    Netflix (used to) contract at the outset for seven seasons so that the story arc could be well-developed and hence you have some of the best telly ever produced (Wire, Sopranos, Breaking Bad, etc).

    The BBC seems to stumble from one season to another with no real direction (while there shouldn't necessarily be commercial reasons). I can't wait for the second season of Boiling Point (the TV series) as S.1 was left on a cliff-hanger, but no sign at all of anything.

    I get if a series is binned midway by the commercial networks, happens all the time (Kaos the most recent high profile example) but the BBC?
    The Wire & Sopranos pre date Netflix.

    Breaking Bad wasn't produced for Netflix
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 5

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    It reminds me of the setup in Suits, that the main character is hiding he isn't really a qualified lawyer...that was a main plot point....then it just comes out and everybody carries on, but wrecked the hook.

    The Mentalist took it to the other extreme, he finally catches Red John, the man who murdered his family...oh no it wasn't really him....for the third three hundredth time....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: Trump voting in West Palm Beach atm.

    Lucky that Florida, which usually bans convicted felons from voting, is following a NY law (where Trump was prosecuted) allowing felons a vote if not currently incarcerated.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited November 5
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    The Titanic at the Roswell exhibit was stunning. I always forget how to post photos here. If you can remind me, I can post.
    Googled it. Here goes the Lego model Titanic photo from Roswell:

    https://imgur.com/a/ZaVZfD7
    Embed the image address (url) in an img tag thus (quote the post to see how the image is embedded):

    image

    Note: not the Imgur page but the actual image address (right-click the image, copy image address)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    The all important Lib Dem endorsement. This could help swing some undecideds in Pennsylvania today:

    "How I hope and pray to see Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump.

    At a time of such instability and uncertainty, it is our shared values that must prevail: decency, compassion, democracy and respect for the rule of law."

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1853842219985261017
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @SkyNews

    🟡 BREAKING: Trump casts ballot with wife Melania near Florida home.

    He tells the cameras '"I hear we're doing very well."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Scott_xP said:

    @thehill

    David Plouffe says Kamala Harris could win allseven7 swing states

    https://x.com/thehill/status/1853833667916816389

    She could.

    She could also win Iowa.

    She could also lose seven states and New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota.

    We just don't know.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @SkyNews

    "I feel very confident," said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump after casting his vote in West Palm Beach. He noted that "Republicans have shown up in force" and called this "the best campaign we ran."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    Yes, Ludwig was a good watch but it’s difficult to see where it goes next.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    TimS said:

    The all important Lib Dem endorsement. This could help swing some undecideds in Pennsylvania today:

    "How I hope and pray to see Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump.

    At a time of such instability and uncertainty, it is our shared values that must prevail: decency, compassion, democracy and respect for the rule of law."

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1853842219985261017

    I see Ed left his 'interfering in US politics' until suitably late in the day.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    Suffers from BBC story arc, great premise, plot not progressed beyond episode 3-4 and then falls apart. Not as bad as the "shadow line" but still a slight letdown.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    The Titanic at the Roswell exhibit was stunning. I always forget how to post photos here. If you can remind me, I can post.
    Googled it. Here goes the Lego model Titanic photo from Roswell:

    https://imgur.com/a/ZaVZfD7
    Embed the image address (url) in an img tag thus (quote the post to see how the image is embedded):

    image

    Note: not the Imgur page but the actual image address (right-click the image, copy image address)
    Lego have just announced the Endurance Ship available on Black Friday £220 so not exactly Titanic price but still ouch.

    I will need to buy it then as the freebie with it is Shackleton's lifeboat.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
    It's certainly not as good as the first two books. Although not quite a Gormengast level step down in quality.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    Summary of the reliable information we have so far:

    1 - We don't really know anything.
    2 - We don't really know anything.
    3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.

    That's it.
    Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.

    @rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).

    Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.

    Pollsters may as well have fun. If Trump wins, there may not be another presidential election betting market in the future.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    31m
    Florida still looking very strong for Trump. In contrast some (again, very, very early) positive numbers for Harris coming out of Nevada.
    Kids today just don’t understand how much fun Florida used to be on election night
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @thehill

    David Plouffe says Kamala Harris could win allseven7 swing states

    https://x.com/thehill/status/1853833667916816389

    She could.

    She could also win Iowa.

    She could also lose seven states and New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota.

    We just don't know.
    Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.

    - D. H. Rumsfeld, 2002.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055

    Summary of the reliable information we have so far:

    1 - We don't really know anything.
    2 - We don't really know anything.
    3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.

    That's it.
    Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.

    @rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).

    Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.

    Very good post.

    A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.

    It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.

    It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.

    On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.

    There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
    Spot on!
    Go to a movie.

    Have a meal.

    Settle down about midnight.

    Go to bed about half one, when Harris has clearly won Georgia, North Carolina...
    I shall go to bed at my normal time. When I wake throughout the night I'll have a look at PB to see how you're faring. Tomorrow I'll read whatever summary is available.

    No excitement here but I wish you all the very best, a profitable and ulcer-free election results period.

    Good evening, everybody.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 5
    moonshine said:

    Summary of the reliable information we have so far:

    1 - We don't really know anything.
    2 - We don't really know anything.
    3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.

    That's it.
    Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.

    @rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).

    Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.

    Pollsters may as well have fun. If Trump wins, there may not be another presidential election betting market in the future.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    31m
    Florida still looking very strong for Trump. In contrast some (again, very, very early) positive numbers for Harris coming out of Nevada.
    Kids today just don’t understand how much fun Florida used to be on election night
    The only hanging chad these days is on the Miami beach pestering passing women for their snap....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    The Titanic at the Roswell exhibit was stunning. I always forget how to post photos here. If you can remind me, I can post.
    Googled it. Here goes the Lego model Titanic photo from Roswell:

    https://imgur.com/a/ZaVZfD7
    Embed the image address (url) in an img tag thus (quote the post to see how the image is embedded):

    image

    Note: not the Imgur page but the actual image address (right-click the image, copy image address)
    Thanks
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    Yes, Ludwig was a good watch but it’s difficult to see where it goes next.
    It was good, and I suspect there are 4 or 5 series in it (see Line of Duty for example).

    Plenty to explore next series with the Unit Seven teaser.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    Yes, Ludwig was a good watch but it’s difficult to see where it goes next.
    Well there's still the major plot point left unresolved of where the brother is and what's behind the big conspiracy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    kenObi said:

    TOPPING said:

    maaarsh said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    Not sure that's fair - Slow Horses feels like a rare beacon of normal annual seasons in a world where post Covid you're lucky to get a series every 2 years now.

    Stranger things relies on child actors and they're still waiting till half of them are 30 to wrap up.
    Pre-Covid it was absolutely true all the streaming platform ran on at least a season a year. I am sure COVID and the strikes have had an impact. Even then, it isn't 5-10 years between seasons. The BBC never have, that's the point. Peaky Blinders took 10 years to make just 36 episodes. No way a Netflix doesn't put the hammer down when they get a massive hit like that.
    Netflix (used to) contract at the outset for seven seasons so that the story arc could be well-developed and hence you have some of the best telly ever produced (Wire, Sopranos, Breaking Bad, etc).

    The BBC seems to stumble from one season to another with no real direction (while there shouldn't necessarily be commercial reasons). I can't wait for the second season of Boiling Point (the TV series) as S.1 was left on a cliff-hanger, but no sign at all of anything.

    I get if a series is binned midway by the commercial networks, happens all the time (Kaos the most recent high profile example) but the BBC?
    The Wire & Sopranos pre date Netflix.

    Breaking Bad wasn't produced for Netflix
    Ah ha! Well the point is/was that they used to commission seven seasons from the outset. No longer it seems.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    My Aunt Doris lives in Pittsburgh. She voted for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. This time round she's voting for Trump.
    Trump's got this. What more evidence do you need?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    So it looks like I'm doing some work that requires a couple of days in London every week

    It looks easier (and way cheaper) to stay in Romford and commute via the Lizzie line rather than anywhere more central..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "I feel very confident," said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump after casting his vote in West Palm Beach. He noted that "Republicans have shown up in force" and called this "the best campaign we ran."

    He didn't call it, which was a surprise. He looked knackered and sounded resigned. How come Melania is voting in FLA. I thought she lived in Trump Tower with...?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    Worth whiling a way a bit of time with this Bulwark podcast featuring Bill Kristol on the election. Quite detailed examination of the Iowa poll and whether it really points the way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zr4VAL6M0TY

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
    It's certainly not as good as the first two books. Although not quite a Gormengast level step down in quality.
    I like them all but yes the first two have a tension that is absent in the last because, I suppose, the end is nigh.

    Mantel for me is similar to Proust in that the worlds they create are of such intensity and profundity that you are immersed and can lose yourself in them.

    Not too many, if any other authors are able so powerfully to create such a world.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited November 5

    My Aunt Doris lives in Pittsburgh. She voted for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. This time round she's voting for Trump.
    Trump's got this. What more evidence do you need?

    Perfect and appropriate time to post this from the Onion yesterday..
    https://bsky.app/profile/theonion.com/post/3la5e7uwny32z
  • All Tube strikes suspended.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460

    All Tube strikes suspended.

    Aslef said it had been given a "significantly improved" pay offer by London Underground management and it would discuss that offer with union members on Thursday.

    How much this time....
  • eek said:

    My Aunt Doris lives in Pittsburgh. She voted for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. This time round she's voting for Trump.
    Trump's got this. What more evidence do you need?

    Perfect and appropriate time to post this from the Onion yesterday..
    https://bsky.app/profile/theonion.com/post/3la5e7uwny32z
    Oh my goodness.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "I feel very confident," said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump after casting his vote in West Palm Beach. He noted that "Republicans have shown up in force" and called this "the best campaign we ran."

    He didn't call it, which was a surprise. He looked knackered and sounded resigned. How come Melania is voting in FLA. I thought she lived in Trump Tower with...?
    Interesting that she had those oversized sunglasses on.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,790

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    For @viewcode

    Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:

    1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;

    2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;

    3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;

    4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.

    Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun

    I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
    I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
    Her speech at last night’s Trump rally was very good. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    Maybe it's worth betting on her for 2028.
    If Trump wins, will there be an election in 2028?
    There will, and Donald Trump will not be a candidate.
  • TimS said:

    The all important Lib Dem endorsement. This could help swing some undecideds in Pennsylvania today:

    "How I hope and pray to see Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump.

    At a time of such instability and uncertainty, it is our shared values that must prevail: decency, compassion, democracy and respect for the rule of law."

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1853842219985261017

    Top man!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    TimS said:

    The all important Lib Dem endorsement. This could help swing some undecideds in Pennsylvania today:

    "How I hope and pray to see Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump.

    At a time of such instability and uncertainty, it is our shared values that must prevail: decency, compassion, democracy and respect for the rule of law."

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1853842219985261017

    LOL! 😂
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited November 5
    My final prediction.

    Same as yesterday.

    Harris 302: WI/MI/PA/NC/GA
    Trump 236: AZ/NV.

    GA and NV the closest. Relatively comfortable Harris wins in the rust belt.

    I had suggested a closer fight than predicted (though still a Trump hold) in FL as a bit of a “below the line” prediction, but not quite as bullish on that now. But otherwise, steady as she goes….
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "I feel very confident," said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump after casting his vote in West Palm Beach. He noted that "Republicans have shown up in force" and called this "the best campaign we ran."

    Republicans turned up in force on January 6th too.

    Did them no good though.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    A acquaintance of mine has that, and built it. He had fun.

    (My largest-ever Technics Lego model was... large. I never counted the pieces, but it would be well over 10,000.

    Edit: and since there's nothing else to talk about today, here's a small part of the model:


    (Apols for the messy room...)
    That reminds me of this:
    http://www.walkingdragline.org/

    Bit of a screw up with the River Aire though...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    Yes, Ludwig was a good watch but it’s difficult to see where it goes next.
    Well there's still the major plot point left unresolved of where the brother is and what's behind the big conspiracy.
    The most disconcerting part of Ludwig was the random appearance of Karl Pilkington...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1853844070340215051

    Guam Straw poll

    🔵 Harris 50% (+4)
    🔴 Trump 46%
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited November 5
    Meanwhile no bets on the US election for me, no value even given the overnight and annualised rate. Although looking at my bf account I see I stand to win £149.33 if Pete Buttigieg wins so there is that.

    Meanwhile x2 for a betting post as, you know, it's sort of a betting site, I can't see why Jake Paul is favourite for his boxing match vs Iron Mike. Unless I haven't been paying attention to the conditions (Mike one hand behind his back, 35oz gloves, whatever) I expect Tyson to spark Paul out in very quick order.

    He (Tyson) is currently at 3.6 to win vs Paul at 1.47. Absurd and fill your boots.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    eek said:

    My Aunt Doris lives in Pittsburgh. She voted for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. This time round she's voting for Trump.
    Trump's got this. What more evidence do you need?

    Perfect and appropriate time to post this from the Onion yesterday..
    https://bsky.app/profile/theonion.com/post/3la5e7uwny32z
    Brilliant!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited November 5
    Helen Thomas (a George Osborne alumni) of Blonde money on LBC calls it for Trump with 306 EC seats.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Helen Thomas (a George Osborne alumni) of Blonde money on LBC calls it for Trump with 306 EC seats.

    would love to know the basis of that.

    Not that I'm saying she's wrong but there are solid reasons to suspect that Harris is being better than the polls suggest and I would love to know the basis of her expectations.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    Here's my Lego street (there's plenty more elsewhere around the house). Keeps me out of mischief!

    Very impressive.

    Personally speaking, have achieved same effect - with several pretend streets, villages and small cities, via

    > Christmas "lighted" houses, made of porceline (or suchlike) and with a hole in the bottom/side for inserting lights.

    > Smaller, solid houses, churches, stores, etc., etc. including "David Winters" traditional cottages (made in UK) and "Liberty Falls" from 1990-early oughts houses, etc. circa late 19th-early 20th cen.

    > Large solid models of famous building, including Mont St Michel, Tower of London, Windsor Castle & several other castles & palaces across UK and Europe.

    > Loads of models of lighthouses, mostly USA (Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf Coast AND Great Lakes) but also from other continents (for example, Start Point Lighthouse).

    > Large X-mas light models of every old California mission (including a few no longer in existence) orginally made for the old Mervyn department store chain - the gems of my collection

    > Foam 3-D puzzles of skyscrapers, mostly NYC but also the Lotus building in Taipei

    Some of the above (esp missions, castles & lighthouses) a tad pricey (though NOT as exorbinate as Legos) but large % obtained for a song via thrift stores.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it." - Joseph Stalin
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Here's my Lego street (there's plenty more elsewhere around the house). Keeps me out of mischief!

    Very impressive.

    Personally speaking, have achieved same effect - with several pretend streets, villages and small cities, via

    > Christmas "lighted" houses, made of porceline (or suchlike) and with a hole in the bottom/side for inserting lights.

    > Smaller, solid houses, churches, stores, etc., etc. including "David Winters" traditional cottages (made in UK) and "Liberty Falls" from 1990-early oughts houses, etc. circa late 19th-early 20th cen.

    > Large solid models of famous building, including Mont St Michel, Tower of London, Windsor Castle & several other castles & palaces across UK and Europe.

    > Loads of models of lighthouses, mostly USA (Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf Coast AND Great Lakes) but also from other continents (for example, Start Point Lighthouse).

    > Large X-mas light models of every old California mission (including a few no longer in existence) orginally made for the old Mervyn department store chain - the gems of my collection

    > Foam 3-D puzzles of skyscrapers, mostly NYC but also the Lotus building in Taipei

    Some of the above (esp missions, castles & lighthouses) a tad pricey (though NOT as exorbinate as Legos) but large % obtained for a song via thrift stores.
    Aren't card model kits of lighthouses downloadable for free/small fee from the net? I've seen some quite tempting ones.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Carnyx said:

    Here's my Lego street (there's plenty more elsewhere around the house). Keeps me out of mischief!

    Very impressive.

    Personally speaking, have achieved same effect - with several pretend streets, villages and small cities, via

    > Christmas "lighted" houses, made of porceline (or suchlike) and with a hole in the bottom/side for inserting lights.

    > Smaller, solid houses, churches, stores, etc., etc. including "David Winters" traditional cottages (made in UK) and "Liberty Falls" from 1990-early oughts houses, etc. circa late 19th-early 20th cen.

    > Large solid models of famous building, including Mont St Michel, Tower of London, Windsor Castle & several other castles & palaces across UK and Europe.

    > Loads of models of lighthouses, mostly USA (Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf Coast AND Great Lakes) but also from other continents (for example, Start Point Lighthouse).

    > Large X-mas light models of every old California mission (including a few no longer in existence) orginally made for the old Mervyn department store chain - the gems of my collection

    > Foam 3-D puzzles of skyscrapers, mostly NYC but also the Lotus building in Taipei

    Some of the above (esp missions, castles & lighthouses) a tad pricey (though NOT as exorbinate as Legos) but large % obtained for a song via thrift stores.
    Aren't card model kits of lighthouses downloadable for free/small fee from the net? I've seen some quite tempting ones.
    Do you have link(s)?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
    It's certainly not as good as the first two books. Although not quite a Gormengast level step down in quality.
    I like them all but yes the first two have a tension that is absent in the last because, I suppose, the end is nigh.

    Mantel for me is similar to Proust in that the worlds they create are of such intensity and profundity that you are immersed and can lose yourself in them.

    Not too many, if any other authors are able so powerfully to create such a world.
    Have you heard of an up-and-coming author called Sean Thomas?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Visegrad24 has an interview with “Theo”, the French Polymarket whale who apparently now has $40m on Trump.

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1853818243003125934
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    eek said:

    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bariweiss

    Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.

    Not satire:

    https://x.com/bariweiss/status/1853803197636190429

    I find playing with Lego very de-stressing.
    I'm a qualified Lego therapist.
    My rates are reasonable.
    The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
    I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?

    They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces :D
    For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.

    https://www.bricktownnm.com/
    We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.

    Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
    Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....

    Just the 9090 pieces.
    A acquaintance of mine has that, and built it. He had fun.

    (My largest-ever Technics Lego model was... large. I never counted the pieces, but it would be well over 10,000.

    Edit: and since there's nothing else to talk about today, here's a small part of the model:


    (Apols for the messy room...)
    That reminds me of this:
    http://www.walkingdragline.org/

    Bit of a screw up with the River Aire though...
    I have a very nice, medium-sized "David Winters" model of a "Cornish Engine House" featuring a water wheel (without the water) that actually turns (by rotating it with your finger) and cranks a crankshaft.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Sandpit said:

    Visegrad24 has an interview with “Theo”, the French Polymarket whale who apparently now has $40m on Trump.

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1853818243003125934

    So that’s what Visegrad24 looks like.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited November 5
    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE
    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go Rep, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes Rep, Virginia will go too: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).

    Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
    It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
    Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
    Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.

    https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
    Spoilers for Ludwig ahead - you have been warned.


    Ludwig will be an interesting one going forward. Part of the appeal was that Mitchell's character was pretending to be his brother, all the while solving crimes at a greater rate than the West Midlands Serious Crime squad could fit up Irish men in the 1970's. That's done now, and he is an official consultant for the Plod. There is still the mystery of what is going on with the missing brother, but part of me worries about the 'Lost' problem - great premise, no actual rewarding pay-off. I can well believe that the series started with "wouldn't it be fun if a nerdy twin had to pretend to be his police detective brother and ends up being really good at solving crimes" and the rest followed.

    We shall see (probably in 2034).
    You have left out the greatest mystery of Ludwig. It was commissioned by the comedy department, so where are the jokes?
  • novanova Posts: 690
    Can anyone recommend a site to follow the results on? I seem to remember last time, someone (maybe NY Times?) had an interactive, with the votes cast being updated constantly for each state.
  • My final prediction.

    Same as yesterday.

    Harris 302: WI/MI/PA/NC/GA
    Trump 236: AZ/NV.

    GA and NV the closest. Relatively comfortable Harris wins in the rust belt.

    I had suggested a closer fight than predicted (though still a Trump hold) in FL as a bit of a “below the line” prediction, but not quite as bullish on that now. But otherwise, steady as she goes….

    I am with you on your prediction!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    ohnotnow said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
    It's certainly not as good as the first two books. Although not quite a Gormengast level step down in quality.
    I like them all but yes the first two have a tension that is absent in the last because, I suppose, the end is nigh.

    Mantel for me is similar to Proust in that the worlds they create are of such intensity and profundity that you are immersed and can lose yourself in them.

    Not too many, if any other authors are able so powerfully to create such a world.
    Have you heard of an up-and-coming author called Sean Thomas?
    He's no SK Tremayne.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    ohnotnow said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
    It's certainly not as good as the first two books. Although not quite a Gormengast level step down in quality.
    I like them all but yes the first two have a tension that is absent in the last because, I suppose, the end is nigh.

    Mantel for me is similar to Proust in that the worlds they create are of such intensity and profundity that you are immersed and can lose yourself in them.

    Not too many, if any other authors are able so powerfully to create such a world.
    Have you heard of an up-and-coming author called Sean Thomas?
    The wine guy?
  • TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile no bets on the US election for me, no value even given the overnight and annualised rate. Although looking at my bf account I see I stand to win £149.33 if Pete Buttigieg wins so there is that.

    Meanwhile x2 for a betting post as, you know, it's sort of a betting site, I can't see why Jake Paul is favourite for his boxing match vs Iron Mike. Unless I haven't been paying attention to the conditions (Mike one hand behind his back, 35oz gloves, whatever) I expect Tyson to spark Paul out in very quick order.

    He (Tyson) is currently at 3.6 to win vs Paul at 1.47. Absurd and fill your boots.

    Mike will win.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile no bets on the US election for me, no value even given the overnight and annualised rate. Although looking at my bf account I see I stand to win £149.33 if Pete Buttigieg wins so there is that.

    Meanwhile x2 for a betting post as, you know, it's sort of a betting site, I can't see why Jake Paul is favourite for his boxing match vs Iron Mike. Unless I haven't been paying attention to the conditions (Mike one hand behind his back, 35oz gloves, whatever) I expect Tyson to spark Paul out in very quick order.

    He (Tyson) is currently at 3.6 to win vs Paul at 1.47. Absurd and fill your boots.

    Mike will win.
    I mean I get arguments about the ailments and the age and you only see him for 20 seconds on the heavy bag so he might gas/give out after 5x3mins but he will, imo, destroy Paul.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678

    Eabhal said:

    kenObi said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.

    Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.

    The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.

    Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
    Is this satire ?

    The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
    No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
    I had a theory that Mantel didn't really want to write the last one, as that's where he historical idol meets a sticky end.
    A glorious death is not necessarily a sticky end. It can, on occasion, make the victim more powerful than their persecutor could possibly imagine.

    But conflict between conscience, duty and ambition is always a story for the ages, and Cromwell's example (and, indeed, Henry VIII's) is a great one to dramatize.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Scott_xP said:

    Stop laughing at the Americans for a minute...

    @KateEMcCann

    NEW: Mark Francois is the new shadow minister of state for Defence

    Better inside the tent
    Particularly if it is pitched in the Falklands.

    Evening all! Popcorn are the ready? 🍿 🍿 🍿
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile no bets on the US election for me, no value even given the overnight and annualised rate. Although looking at my bf account I see I stand to win £149.33 if Pete Buttigieg wins so there is that.

    Meanwhile x2 for a betting post as, you know, it's sort of a betting site, I can't see why Jake Paul is favourite for his boxing match vs Iron Mike. Unless I haven't been paying attention to the conditions (Mike one hand behind his back, 35oz gloves, whatever) I expect Tyson to spark Paul out in very quick order.

    He (Tyson) is currently at 3.6 to win vs Paul at 1.47. Absurd and fill your boots.

    Can’t help thinking that even old Mike Tyson, is still Mike Tyson. It’s a professional fight, not an exhibition, and the old man has been doing some serious training.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    TimS said:

    The all important Lib Dem endorsement. This could help swing some undecideds in Pennsylvania today:

    "How I hope and pray to see Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump.

    At a time of such instability and uncertainty, it is our shared values that must prevail: decency, compassion, democracy and respect for the rule of law."

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1853842219985261017

    Given that Trump has been alleging that Trump has been labeling (as opposed to libeling?) Harris as an extreme Libtard, endorsement by a "Liberal Democrat" may be playing into his hands!

    Shades of the Guardian and Franklin County, Ohio in 2000?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Pretty extraordinary MSNBC segment:

    https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1853652672219349153

    "We begin our final sprint having arrived at that point in the election season where basically we, on this side of the TV screen have said, all we can, we've laid out the stakes in this crucial election where one side stands for freedom while the other meets the textbook definition of fascism."

    "Namely a far-right dictatorial regime like Hitler's Germany or Franco's Spain, or Mussolini's Italy, but also white-ruled South Africa before Mandela and the black majority took control."
  • Presidential election anecdote:

    Yesterday evening we were watching the coverage on Sky News. When Trump appeared on screen, no reaction from our dog. When Kamala appeared, she sat up and paid attention to the TV.

    Place your bets accordingly.

    Animals sometimes have better instincts than people.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited November 5
    eek said:

    Helen Thomas (a George Osborne alumni) of Blonde money on LBC calls it for Trump with 306 EC seats.

    would love to know the basis of that.

    Not that I'm saying she's wrong but there are solid reasons to suspect that Harris is being better than the polls suggest and I would love to know the basis of her expectations.
    I do apologise, I think her name is Sarah Thomas. She was very confident of her indicators based on polling and betting markets and that the bond markets want Trump, although someone from Seven Group on later was alarmed by Trump's tariff policy.
  • I think I've fallen for turnout rumours in almost every election I've ever bet on.

    Not this time.

    Same here. Not this time!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Oh, and my room in a **** 4-STAR *** hotel has a balcony!

    From which I look out onto...


    ...a dual carriageway.


    Beat that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    On topic, poll companies herd together to avoid blame.

    This is a big driver of human behaviour. It's far safer for them to do that than take a risk: the upside is mildly beneficial (but they'll be expected to get everything right and hailed as a "gold standard" from then on) but absolutely pilloried and lose a lot of business on the downside.

    Far easier to hide in the herd and, say, 'we all got it wrong' and here are some lessons.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile no bets on the US election for me, no value even given the overnight and annualised rate. Although looking at my bf account I see I stand to win £149.33 if Pete Buttigieg wins so there is that.

    Meanwhile x2 for a betting post as, you know, it's sort of a betting site, I can't see why Jake Paul is favourite for his boxing match vs Iron Mike. Unless I haven't been paying attention to the conditions (Mike one hand behind his back, 35oz gloves, whatever) I expect Tyson to spark Paul out in very quick order.

    He (Tyson) is currently at 3.6 to win vs Paul at 1.47. Absurd and fill your boots.

    Mike will win.
    I mean I get arguments about the ailments and the age and you only see him for 20 seconds on the heavy bag so he might gas/give out after 5x3mins but he will, imo, destroy Paul.
    I believe you are right!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    My final prediction.

    Same as yesterday.

    Harris 302: WI/MI/PA/NC/GA
    Trump 236: AZ/NV.

    GA and NV the closest. Relatively comfortable Harris wins in the rust belt.

    I had suggested a closer fight than predicted (though still a Trump hold) in FL as a bit of a “below the line” prediction, but not quite as bullish on that now. But otherwise, steady as she goes….

    Perhaps foolishly, the late evidence/theorising has swung me to 60/40 Kamala/Trump away from a coin toss.
    I'm going for Harris 298 - WI/MI/IA/PA/NC/NV
    Trump 240 - AZ/GA
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    OK, I @viewcode am back in the room. Earlier I mentioned my large bets on Dems taking Minnesota and Virginia and asked for reassurance/rebuttal. The replies were:

    THE RESPONSE

    • Pulpstar: "You should be fine, but it's a bit of a picking pennies in front of a train strategy I think." Liked by Dumbosarius, Barnesian, AnneJGP and TheScreamingEagles.
    • TheScreamingEagles: "My New Year's Resolution will be to get you to use Betfair" Liked by Barnesian
    • Renegade_pollster: (I paraphrase) "Minnesota will probably go, Virginia won't".
    • PadTheHoundsman: "Yes, Dems will win those states. Polling aggregates show a thoroughly comfortable margin, exceeding the MoE."
    • RCS1000: (I paraphrase) "If Minnesota goes, Virginia will go: they're not independent"
    Thank you all for your help, sincerely: I do appreciate it. When we move to (early) election day and actual votes come in, we must abandon polls and look at the actual results. All the noise today (queues in NJ, R+22 in Florida) and earlier (Nevada Dems not turning out) makes me feel like it is a Trump landslide. I built my book to withstand a large Trump win but not a Trump landslide (an EC margin of over 100, ie 320 or 318 seats or more). So it looks as if I may lose it all.

    At this point it becomes a test of character. Do I taxi into town and bet on Trump to mitigate the loss, or just absorb the loss and take it as a learning experience? At the present time I am tempted to do the latter and "take it on the chin" as a lesson for next time. So I will get some nice food, possibly have a bath, and enjoy the show.

    After all, I paid a grand for the ticket... B)

    VIEWCODE'S FINAL BOOK FOR POTUS 2024
    • STATE: MINNESOTA: 1/14 Kamela to win: £200 bet
    • STATE: VIRGINIA: 2/17 Kamela to win: £500 bet
    • SENATE: ARIZONA: 2/9 Reuben Gallego to win (D): £200 bet
    • SENATE: MONTANA: 1/5 Tim Sheehy to win (R): £100
    Total waged: £1000
    Total returns if all win: 558.82+214.29+244.44+120 = £1,137.55
    Potential profit: £137.55
    Potential loss: £1000.

    Two bets from back in October on a Kamela win were written off at month's end and are not counted here.
    Personally, I hate bets like yours on Minnesota and Virginia, because I think they're terrible value. If there's a big polling miss, and it's Trump's direction you lose a lot of money. And there's probably a 40% chance of a Trump favorable polling miss, and a 30% chance of it being really big. So why pickup pennies in front of a bulldozer?

    Of your bets, I think the only one where the odds look good is Rueben Gallego, because we know people split ticket vote in AZ, and Lake underperformed her peers last time. I think you'd probably need Trump +7 in AZ to lose there, and given the abortion ballot proposition, I just don't think that's happening.

    On Montana, be aware that lots of Republican voters look like they are being disenfranchised by the new voter ID laws. Libertarian leaning rural Republicans aren't very good at renewing their driving licenses, meaning they have been purged from the rolls. And it looks like more of them are going to end up losing the vote than Democrat leaning urban young people.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Pretty extraordinary MSNBC segment:

    https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1853652672219349153

    "We begin our final sprint having arrived at that point in the election season where basically we, on this side of the TV screen have said, all we can, we've laid out the stakes in this crucial election where one side stands for freedom while the other meets the textbook definition of fascism."

    "Namely a far-right dictatorial regime like Hitler's Germany or Franco's Spain, or Mussolini's Italy, but also white-ruled South Africa before Mandela and the black majority took control."

    Apartheid South Africa wasn’t a fascist state.

    The set of Bad States is larger than the set of Fascist States.
  • rkrkrk said:

    My final prediction.

    Same as yesterday.

    Harris 302: WI/MI/PA/NC/GA
    Trump 236: AZ/NV.

    GA and NV the closest. Relatively comfortable Harris wins in the rust belt.

    I had suggested a closer fight than predicted (though still a Trump hold) in FL as a bit of a “below the line” prediction, but not quite as bullish on that now. But otherwise, steady as she goes….

    Perhaps foolishly, the late evidence/theorising has swung me to 60/40 Kamala/Trump away from a coin toss.
    I'm going for Harris 298 - WI/MI/IA/PA/NC/NV
    Trump 240 - AZ/GA
    Good!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    eek said:

    Helen Thomas (a George Osborne alumni) of Blonde money on LBC calls it for Trump with 306 EC seats.

    would love to know the basis of that.

    Not that I'm saying she's wrong but there are solid reasons to suspect that Harris is being better than the polls suggest and I would love to know the basis of her expectations.
    I do apologise, I think her name is Sarah Thomas. She was very confident of her indicators based on polling and betting markets and that the bond markets want Trump, although someone from Seven Group on later was alarmed by Trump's tariff policy.
    Well, we all know how reliable betting markets are when it comes to close elections.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    eek said:

    Helen Thomas (a George Osborne alumni) of Blonde money on LBC calls it for Trump with 306 EC seats.

    would love to know the basis of that.

    Not that I'm saying she's wrong but there are solid reasons to suspect that Harris is being better than the polls suggest and I would love to know the basis of her expectations.
    I do apologise, I think her name is Sarah Thomas. She was very confident of her indicators based on polling and betting markets and that the bond markets want Trump, although someone from Seven Group on later was alarmed by Trump's tariff policy.
    She's looking at the polling (which is herding) and the betting markets which appears to be a few rich people about to lose a lot of money trying to fake that Trump is winning.

    That's the thing here - I don't see how the betting markets has better information than us and our information is either a Harris win or not a clue....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    Pretty extraordinary MSNBC segment:

    https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1853652672219349153

    "We begin our final sprint having arrived at that point in the election season where basically we, on this side of the TV screen have said, all we can, we've laid out the stakes in this crucial election where one side stands for freedom while the other meets the textbook definition of fascism."

    "Namely a far-right dictatorial regime like Hitler's Germany or Franco's Spain, or Mussolini's Italy, but also white-ruled South Africa before Mandela and the black majority took control."

    Agreed: Mussolini's Italy really shouldn't have been included in the list.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I might watch Planes, Trains and Automobiles.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    "If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'd be the first one to acknowledge it."

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says people who are concerned he won't concede if he loses this election are "crazy".

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1853847163412918657

    He's going to argue that it wasn't a fair election - you can see the preparation for that already...
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