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State of the Union, Election Day – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    "My rocket's bigger than yours!"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited November 5
    The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.

    Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Fixed it for you
    Your cat knows more.
    My cat doesn’t appreciate pussy grabbers
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    Musk, Trump and Farage in the same room for pizza tonight.

    Gotta be the start of a joke surely?
    An Englishman, a Scotsman and a South African walk into a pizza parlour…..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Andy_JS said:


    NewsWire
    @NewsWire_US
    ·
    12m
    MAN DRENCHED IN FUEL AND CARRYING A TORCH AND A FLARE GUN HAS BEEN ARRESTED AT U.S. CAPITOL BUILDING

    Today/tonight was also going to bring out a few people like this.
    Tomorrow much more so...
    But who will tomorrow belong to?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Duly noted.

    Now AI. Do we think it will catch on? :smiley:
    It’s all muscle.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,925
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    Not Shrek: that's the kind of movie which idealizes people of color.
  • rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Fixed it for you
    Your cat knows more.
    My cat doesn’t appreciate pussy grabbers
    Cool cat.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Evening folks. Does anyone know if GA publishes on-the-day demographic data for voters? Cheers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    Surely has to be reruns of Trump rallies?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.

    In all probability, the results won't all be within 1%. In all probability, most of the swing states will be clear victories for one of the two candidates. And most likely it will all be in one direction.

    Which way?

    I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)
    An illustration of the difference between median and mode ?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    Surely has to be reruns of Trump rallies?
    Home alone 2 obviously
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Erin Burnett
    @ErinBurnett
    ·
    31m
    Nevada SOS tells @StephanieElam two crucial things: #ElectionDay Nevada is seeing a surge in young voters … which is causing signature curing issues bc young voters aren’t used to signing names.

    https://x.com/ErinBurnett


    ===

    Curing seems to be a process of comparing signatures. I don't know the term myself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited November 5
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    Surely has to be reruns of Trump rallies?
    Home alone 2 obviously
    Nope, this Trump cameo classic

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghosts_Can't_Do_It
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Fixed it for you
    Your cat knows more.
    My cat doesn’t appreciate pussy grabbers
    Cool cat.
    But who were the dancers in cool for cats? I don’t believe it was Imogen Stubbs

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    IanB2 said:

    The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.

    Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.

    This is why it's hard to extract signal from prediction markets:

    1. Knowledgeable insiders and rich morons both exist
    2. To an external observer they have similar behavior
    3. If you're a knowledgeable insider, your incentive is to try to look like a rich moron
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,183
    IanB2 said:

    The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.

    Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.

    That's always the issue with betting exchanges. Most punters use them like a bookies, back their fancy and patiently await the result. Realising this can be quite profitable in a thin market, less so with £200 million on the table.
  • Dan Hodges said Sunak would win lol.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    Scott_xP said:

    @teddyschleifer

    NEW with
    @maggieNYT
    :

    Elon Musk is spending Election Night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

    Surprise!

    https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/1853866614824820993

    Musk, Trump and Farage in the same room for pizza tonight.

    Gotta be the start of a joke surely?
    An Englishman, a Scotsman and a South African walk into a pizza parlour…..
    Stormy tonight one suggests.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited November 5

    IanB2 said:

    The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.

    Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.

    3. If you're a knowledgeable insider, your incentive is to try to look like a rich moron
    Well I'm halfway there, thankfully.
  • Dan Hodges said Sunak would win lol.

    Impressively useless.
  • rcs1000 said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.

    Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
    Fixed it for you
    Your cat knows more.
    My cat doesn’t appreciate pussy grabbers
    Cool cat.
    But who were the dancers in cool for cats? I don’t believe it was Imogen Stubbs

    Good question.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.

    In all probability, the results won't all be within 1%. In all probability, most of the swing states will be clear victories for one of the two candidates. And most likely it will all be in one direction.

    Which way?

    I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)
    An illustration of the difference between median and mode ?

    I think my favourite political fact of 2024 is that Labour's median constituency vote share in 2024 is within 0.5% of that in 2017, despite the overall vote shares being over 6% apart.
  • Not terribly confident so bet the princely sum of £10!

    Trump - 4/7 - £5
    Republican Nevada Senate - 3/1 - £2.50
    Republican Michigan Senate - 11/4 - £2.50
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited November 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    Not Shrek: that's the kind of movie which idealizes people of color.
    When did you forget how to spell, using actual proper English words? ;)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    viewcode said:

    If I wake up at 6am in the Uk tomorrow (God willing) what chance is there of knowing the result.svp

    Pretty good. I don't think it's going to be close.
    For Harris?
    I don't know which way it will flip. I suspect it will be a Trump win based on early results. But I do not know and it could be a Harris win. I apologise for the fact that this answer is unhelpful but it is the best I got.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    They will only be allowed to stay up until Melania gets home from her girls bridge night and finds them throwing pizza at the tv.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited November 5
    Andy_JS said:

    NBC News is apparently expecting around 159.4 million votes to be cast in total, which is only a modest increase from the 158.4 million cast in 2020. Not sure how reliable that forecast is.

    I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results

    I think US population is increasing by about a million per year so that sounds like a small decrease.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/population

    [edited several times to say wildly different things, bear with me it's 4:30 am here]
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Dopermean said:

    Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:

    “Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/05/tory-wets-ramp-up-anti-trump-activism-ahead-of-election/

    I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
    Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet".
    They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
    I don't blame you, but you really haven't been keeping up with Hague's oeuvre if you think that's the case - not to mention that you appear to have failed in basic comprehension given the above quote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Lady knows how to count, so might be worth lumping on this ?

    PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
    https://x.com/ryanstruyk/status/1853774438572892433
  • The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    The Three Amigos.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Omnium said:

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
    Don't think so. He's been steady on 1.6ish for days. Why he's been that short is a question that has been pondered here - possibly someone with deep pockets keeping it that way. But you'd need $10 million+ to maintain it, and it's not obvious that it's the best use of $10 million.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    Leave politics out of it and Farage at least seems to know how to have a social good time. Trump would probably just talk about himself and golf for 3 hours. Musk, IDK, probably some stuff about Mars but mostly just whatever has popped up in his twitter feed whenever he glances at his phone.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    I can't imagine that David Lammy has been invited.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Nigelb said:

    Lady knows how to count, so might be worth lumping on this ?

    PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
    https://x.com/ryanstruyk/status/1853774438572892433

    They'll need it if the Presidential race goes the wrong way, so I hope so.
  • The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    To paraphrase the late Sean Lock that's a challenging [redacted].
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,183

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    They will only be allowed to stay up until Melania gets home from her girls bridge night and finds them throwing pizza at the tv.
    Every time Melania says 'One No Trump' everyone falls about laughing.
  • Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    I can't imagine that David Lammy has been invited.
    Shame. He would be good company.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Nevada tightening a little for Dem betting.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    edited November 5

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    That line-up needs a comic adding.

    Do you know of any, Donald? For a roast dinner.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    Omnium said:

    .

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Based on what though?
    Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
    Don't think so. He's been steady on 1.6ish for days. Why he's been that short is a question that has been pondered here - possibly someone with deep pockets keeping it that way. But you'd need $10 million+ to maintain it, and it's not obvious that it's the best use of $10 million.
    Well you may not think it Dr P, but you'd be wrong. He was around 1.62 or so for a while, and then there was a short period (a few days ago) when he lengthened into the 1.80 area. Then he's been back in the 1.60s today, but the drop below that is a definite movement in the last few hours. As stated above I don't particularly see any great information in this, but I'd prefer it if matters were going the other way.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Didn’t know they swung that way.

    MUSK TO SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH TRUMP - NYT
    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1853865217555382466

    A sleepover. Will they be in their Jim jams and have fizzy drinks and watch Shrek?
    I can't imagine that David Lammy has been invited.
    Shame. He would be good company.
    Quite possibly, but I was making an amusing comment based on the fact that he looks like Shrek.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    For extra fun, add Corbyn, Maduro and Taylor Swift.

    Though I don't know what Swift's done to deserve such treatment...
  • The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    For extra fun, add Corbyn, Maduro and Taylor Swift.

    Though I don't know what Swift's done to deserve such treatment...
    Adele and Elton John.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Nigelb said:

    Lady knows how to count, so might be worth lumping on this ?

    PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
    https://x.com/ryanstruyk/status/1853774438572892433

    Are they not already favourite?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,058
    It's a shame US polls don't close at 10pm US time like in the UK and take a couple of hours before the first results.

    A slightly earlier wake up and you can see it all.

    I'm inclined to wait for the 1am bulletin from Georgia, bet accordingly, then head to bed...
  • Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.

    GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.

    Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.

    GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.

    Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...

    Why can you not appreciate the camp of MAGA for what it is?
  • Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Evening all on PB. Bonfire night and election sandwiches, as the nights get more bracing.

    It wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Musk to blow a few million dollars on shifting the appearance of the betting markets, ofcourse.
  • Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.

    GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.

    Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...

    Double standards.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    But I give the final word here to
    @JyShapiro

    "The only problem is that everyone keeps asking us to predict the outcome. So, for the last time, there is no analytical or fact-based way to make that prediction. But Harris is going to win."

    https://x.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1853854301761700102
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Lady knows how to count, so might be worth lumping on this ?

    PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
    https://x.com/ryanstruyk/status/1853774438572892433

    Are they not already favourite?
    They are, of course.
    But I was thinking of nervous punters like viewcode.
  • Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Evening all on PB. Bonfire night and election sandwiches, as the nights get more bracing.

    It wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Musk to blow a few million dollars on shifting the appearance of the betting markets, ofcourse.
    He would never do that!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Omnium said:

    Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.

    Evening all on PB. Bonfire night and election sandwiches, as the nights get more bracing.

    It wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Musk to blow a few million dollars on shifting the appearance of the betting markets, ofcourse.
    He's working hard, already laying the groundwork to claim it makes no sense if Democrats win in several states, so at least he's putting in effort and not just throwing money around.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Trump's betfair price seems reasonably stable right now, but the DJT stock sticker, having been trending up all day just took a dump
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.

    GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.

    Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...

    Well they were apparently delighted by Trump miming fellatio, so I don’t know what to tell you.
  • Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.

    GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.

    Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...

    Why can you not appreciate the camp of MAGA for what it is?
    Camp? They're not camp. Ooooh MATRON! is camp. Oh hello! is camp. MAGA are men, MANLY men.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    NC at 3 again, for Harris on Betfair.
    Tempted.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.

    GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.

    Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...

    Why can you not appreciate the camp of MAGA for what it is?
    Camp? They're not camp. Ooooh MATRON! is camp. Oh hello! is camp. MAGA are men, MANLY men.
    If only the 45th doctor hadn't found those bone spurs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Oh dear.

    Apparently Kemi's band of also-rans and general duffers has been nicknamed the shallow cabinet...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    DJT stock was trading at $40 twenty minutes ago. Now $33 and still falling
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 690

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    Le Diner De Cons
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Probably already posted but CNN US HD is channel 626 on Virgin cable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Scott_xP said:

    DJT stock was trading at $40 twenty minutes ago. Now $33 and still falling

    It had dropped to the low teens at one point before rallying over the last month. Hopefully it will be below $1 soon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited November 5

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Truth Social. Donny's social media brand
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    It is the truth!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Does Truth Social make a profit or is this just fanboys buying stock?
  • NEW THREAD

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    trading restarted and the whales are trying to prop it up again
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Does Truth Social make a profit or is this just fanboys buying stock?
    Think bitcoin, then add a business model. Then step back and think. Worthless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Does Truth Social make a profit or is this just fanboys buying stock?
    Twitter struggles to make a profit (if it even does), I find it hard to believe one far less used and likely less attractive to advertisers is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    That line-up needs a comic adding.

    Do you know of any, Donald? For a roast dinner.
    I know of one, but their jokes are garbage.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736


    Erin Burnett
    @ErinBurnett
    ·
    31m
    Nevada SOS tells @StephanieElam two crucial things: #ElectionDay Nevada is seeing a surge in young voters … which is causing signature curing issues bc young voters aren’t used to signing names.

    https://x.com/ErinBurnett


    ===

    Curing seems to be a process of comparing signatures. I don't know the term myself.

    Surely a surge of voters who have trouble signing their names must be good news for Trump?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    The stuff he smears on his face.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Pretty much finalised my prediction spreadsheet. Probably post it around 10pm.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    edited November 5
    So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:

    1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
    2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
    3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
    4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
    5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
    6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
    7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
    8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
    9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
    10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
    11. Jan 6th

    I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.

    My bets
    £20 Harris win at 11/8
    £20 Harris win PA at 11/10
    £3 Harris win IA at 10/1
    £3 Harris win AK at 30/1
    £2 Harris win KS at 100/1

    I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Does Truth Social make a profit or is this just fanboys buying stock?
    Twitter struggles to make a profit (if it even does), I find it hard to believe one far less used and likely less attractive to advertisers is.
    I cannot see how Twitter targets ads. I get Facebook and the ads I get there seem appropriate. However twitter ads seem totally random.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Ralston just updated with morning turnout numbers:

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump's betfair price seems reasonably stable right now, but the DJT stock sticker, having been trending up all day just took a dump

    I hope it was wearing it's Trump diapers*.

    * Trump diapers hasn't failed to amuse me for around three months. I might need them myself tomorrow.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Wouldn't surprise me to find out (if he thought he was losing) all his personal stock in the company had mysteriously been sold to a 3rd party leaving him in the clover. Unlike his voter base.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Wouldn't surprise me to find out (if he thought he was losing) all his personal stock in the company had mysteriously been sold to a 3rd party leaving him in the clover. Unlike his voter base.
    To a mystery buyer via Deutsch Bank?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    No starters.

    No mains.

    Just three puddings.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    The dinner party from hell:
    Trump, Musk, Farage.

    No starters.

    No mains.

    Just three puddings.
    No food.

    Just three shits.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trading on DJT stock halted by NASDAQ !

    What on earth is DJT stock
    Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.

    Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
    Does Truth Social make a profit or is this just fanboys buying stock?
    It's turnover would be an embarrassment to the local pub turnover (literally), but it's expenses are similar to a large corporation so the figures and financial ratios just look bizarre, like a computer bug printout. It should be utterly worthless, but isn't. The share price fluctuates like a roller coaster and bears no resemblance to financial reality. If he loses they will be worthless. If he wins they will rocket.
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