The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.
Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.
In all probability, the results won't all be within 1%. In all probability, most of the swing states will be clear victories for one of the two candidates. And most likely it will all be in one direction.
Which way?
I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)
An illustration of the difference between median and mode ?
Erin Burnett @ErinBurnett · 31m Nevada SOS tells @StephanieElam two crucial things: #ElectionDay Nevada is seeing a surge in young voters … which is causing signature curing issues bc young voters aren’t used to signing names.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
Fixed it for you
Your cat knows more.
My cat doesn’t appreciate pussy grabbers
Cool cat.
But who were the dancers in cool for cats? I don’t believe it was Imogen Stubbs
The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.
Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.
This is why it's hard to extract signal from prediction markets:
1. Knowledgeable insiders and rich morons both exist 2. To an external observer they have similar behavior 3. If you're a knowledgeable insider, your incentive is to try to look like a rich moron
The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.
Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.
That's always the issue with betting exchanges. Most punters use them like a bookies, back their fancy and patiently await the result. Realising this can be quite profitable in a thin market, less so with £200 million on the table.
The trouble is that, as high information non-voters, we see the betting movements on election night and wonder if they’re coming from people with more information, or more insight, than us.
Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.
3. If you're a knowledgeable insider, your incentive is to try to look like a rich moron
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 3m Democrats very upbeat about Georgia turnout. And especially turnout in African American voting areas. Which would potentially have big significance nationally. Black turnout was 13% in 2020, so that will be another benchmark to watch in the exit poll.
Anyone quoting Dan Hodges (who knows less than my cat about what's going on ) will be banned.
Fixed it for you
Your cat knows more.
My cat doesn’t appreciate pussy grabbers
Cool cat.
But who were the dancers in cool for cats? I don’t believe it was Imogen Stubbs
6 states within 1% on some scores is pretty amazing stuff really. Usually individual matters and issues do not affect the outcomes, but here last minute stories/events really might have done.
In all probability, the results won't all be within 1%. In all probability, most of the swing states will be clear victories for one of the two candidates. And most likely it will all be in one direction.
Which way?
I'll give you my best guess at about midnight. But what I will tell you is that my betting accounts are loaded up, so I'm ready to trade :-)
An illustration of the difference between median and mode ?
I think my favourite political fact of 2024 is that Labour's median constituency vote share in 2024 is within 0.5% of that in 2017, despite the overall vote shares being over 6% apart.
If I wake up at 6am in the Uk tomorrow (God willing) what chance is there of knowing the result.svp
Pretty good. I don't think it's going to be close.
For Harris?
I don't know which way it will flip. I suspect it will be a Trump win based on early results. But I do not know and it could be a Harris win. I apologise for the fact that this answer is unhelpful but it is the best I got.
NBC News is apparently expecting around 159.4 million votes to be cast in total, which is only a modest increase from the 158.4 million cast in 2020. Not sure how reliable that forecast is.
I got the data from clicking on each state on their election night results map which includes estimated number of votes expected.
Been reading about Hague's 'Trump must lose' Times piece on Guido. Apparently the below is a direct quotation:
“Isn’t Britain’s new government influenced, in its ambitions for renewable energy and deficit spending to fund public investment, by the confidence of the Biden administration in pursuing those goals? Wasn’t the ill-fated Tory mini-budget of two years ago based on a misreading of Reagan’s tax-cutting agenda all those years ago? Whatever our past affiliations, we should all be Democrats.”
I have got used to the type of Lib Dem adjacent Tory twat who would write a piece dolorously disapproving of Trump, but one that not only kicks out at his own party but then steps up to the crease for the worst Labour Government ever in the same passage has reached a new low. Why the Tory Party ever elected the loathsome little gimp remains mystery. He was already overpromoted when he worked part time in the lemonade factory.
Hague was a euro-sceptic Thatcherite, shows the pressure for the Conservative's to veer ever further right if he's now described as a "wet". They may have capitalised Democrats in error, but Conservatives have campaigned for Democrats and Democrats for the Conservatives over the years.
I don't blame you, but you really haven't been keeping up with Hague's oeuvre if you think that's the case - not to mention that you appear to have failed in basic comprehension given the above quote.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
Don't think so. He's been steady on 1.6ish for days. Why he's been that short is a question that has been pondered here - possibly someone with deep pockets keeping it that way. But you'd need $10 million+ to maintain it, and it's not obvious that it's the best use of $10 million.
Leave politics out of it and Farage at least seems to know how to have a social good time. Trump would probably just talk about himself and golf for 3 hours. Musk, IDK, probably some stuff about Mars but mostly just whatever has popped up in his twitter feed whenever he glances at his phone.
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Based on what though?
Well him shortening is just what's happening on BF. I've no idea why he has more backers than a few hours ago, but I don't regard it as a good sign.
Don't think so. He's been steady on 1.6ish for days. Why he's been that short is a question that has been pondered here - possibly someone with deep pockets keeping it that way. But you'd need $10 million+ to maintain it, and it's not obvious that it's the best use of $10 million.
Well you may not think it Dr P, but you'd be wrong. He was around 1.62 or so for a while, and then there was a short period (a few days ago) when he lengthened into the 1.80 area. Then he's been back in the 1.60s today, but the drop below that is a definite movement in the last few hours. As stated above I don't particularly see any great information in this, but I'd prefer it if matters were going the other way.
Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
Why can you not appreciate the camp of MAGA for what it is?
Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
"The only problem is that everyone keeps asking us to predict the outcome. So, for the last time, there is no analytical or fact-based way to make that prediction. But Harris is going to win."
Bloody hell - Trump shortening alarmingly. The Guy Fawkes noises in the background seem appropriate.
Evening all on PB. Bonfire night and election sandwiches, as the nights get more bracing.
It wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Musk to blow a few million dollars on shifting the appearance of the betting markets, ofcourse.
He's working hard, already laying the groundwork to claim it makes no sense if Democrats win in several states, so at least he's putting in effort and not just throwing money around.
Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
Well they were apparently delighted by Trump miming fellatio, so I don’t know what to tell you.
Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
Why can you not appreciate the camp of MAGA for what it is?
Camp? They're not camp. Ooooh MATRON! is camp. Oh hello! is camp. MAGA are men, MANLY men.
Watching Farage pratting about at a Trump rally last night with YMCA blasting out.
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
Why can you not appreciate the camp of MAGA for what it is?
Camp? They're not camp. Ooooh MATRON! is camp. Oh hello! is camp. MAGA are men, MANLY men.
If only the 45th doctor hadn't found those bone spurs.
Erin Burnett @ErinBurnett · 31m Nevada SOS tells @StephanieElam two crucial things: #ElectionDay Nevada is seeing a surge in young voters … which is causing signature curing issues bc young voters aren’t used to signing names.
So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:
1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense. 2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry. 3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all. 4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years. 5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent 6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months 7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib) 8. The Reagan generation is dying out. 9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote 10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games. 11. Jan 6th
I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.
My bets £20 Harris win at 11/8 £20 Harris win PA at 11/10 £3 Harris win IA at 10/1 £3 Harris win AK at 30/1 £2 Harris win KS at 100/1
I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!
Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.
Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
Wouldn't surprise me to find out (if he thought he was losing) all his personal stock in the company had mysteriously been sold to a 3rd party leaving him in the clover. Unlike his voter base.
Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.
Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
Wouldn't surprise me to find out (if he thought he was losing) all his personal stock in the company had mysteriously been sold to a 3rd party leaving him in the clover. Unlike his voter base.
Trump Media - so basically just Truth Social, his twitter knock off.
Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
Does Truth Social make a profit or is this just fanboys buying stock?
It's turnover would be an embarrassment to the local pub turnover (literally), but it's expenses are similar to a large corporation so the figures and financial ratios just look bizarre, like a computer bug printout. It should be utterly worthless, but isn't. The share price fluctuates like a roller coaster and bears no resemblance to financial reality. If he loses they will be worthless. If he wins they will rocket.
Comments
Whereas most of them are probably coming from people seeing an in-play market and simply picking their favourite horse, expecting that by tomorrow they will have won or lost; just a bit of fun.
Erin Burnett
@ErinBurnett
·
31m
Nevada SOS tells @StephanieElam two crucial things: #ElectionDay Nevada is seeing a surge in young voters … which is causing signature curing issues bc young voters aren’t used to signing names.
https://x.com/ErinBurnett
===
Curing seems to be a process of comparing signatures. I don't know the term myself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghosts_Can't_Do_It
1. Knowledgeable insiders and rich morons both exist
2. To an external observer they have similar behavior
3. If you're a knowledgeable insider, your incentive is to try to look like a rich moron
Trump - 4/7 - £5
Republican Nevada Senate - 3/1 - £2.50
Republican Michigan Senate - 11/4 - £2.50
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/population
[edited several times to say wildly different things, bear with me it's 4:30 am here]
Trump, Musk, Farage.
PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."
https://x.com/ryanstruyk/status/1853774438572892433
Do you know of any, Donald? For a roast dinner.
Though I don't know what Swift's done to deserve such treatment...
A slightly earlier wake up and you can see it all.
I'm inclined to wait for the 1am bulletin from Georgia, bet accordingly, then head to bed...
GOP Evangelical Cultists do know what that song is about, surely? They quote Leviticus enough about stoning men who lay with other men, then play the anthem of men doing all the fun stuff that involved laying with other men.
Its as if they were utter morons or something. Can't be true...
It wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Musk to blow a few million dollars on shifting the appearance of the betting markets, ofcourse.
@JyShapiro
"The only problem is that everyone keeps asking us to predict the outcome. So, for the last time, there is no analytical or fact-based way to make that prediction. But Harris is going to win."
https://x.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1853854301761700102
But I was thinking of nervous punters like viewcode.
Tempted.
Apparently Kemi's band of also-rans and general duffers has been nicknamed the shallow cabinet...
Makes him a proper billionaire so long as it doesn't collapse.
NEW THREAD
1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
11. Jan 6th
I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.
My bets
£20 Harris win at 11/8
£20 Harris win PA at 11/10
£3 Harris win IA at 10/1
£3 Harris win AK at 30/1
£2 Harris win KS at 100/1
I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
* Trump diapers hasn't failed to amuse me for around three months. I might need them myself tomorrow.
No mains.
Just three puddings.
Just three shits.