The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".
Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
FL:
Total votes: 9,152,354 Dem: 2,955,696 R: 3,974,687 NP: 1,955,901
R lead D by 11%
This is the vote as of now on VoteHub livefeed.
Those aren't D or R votes though are they? Just the votes of voters registered as being affiliated with the party, which doesn't actually tell us how they voted?
Would be an incredible act of faith against the odds (evidence) to believe that the anti-Trump wave consists primarily of registered Republicans, and is not feeding through in to higher Dem turnout.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".
Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
FL:
Total votes: 9,152,354 Dem: 2,955,696 R: 3,974,687 NP: 1,955,901
R lead D by 11%
This is the vote as of now on VoteHub livefeed.
If the Dems lead Independents by 55:45 (which is a big "If") then would be both (a) not competitive in the State, but (b) outperforming the NYTimes Siena poll markedly.
Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:
1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;
2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;
3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;
4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.
Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun
I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
He quite explicitly talked about future elections in a snippet I saw. I think its hyperbolae to talk in such terms. I also note that with the events of 4 years hence in mind, there is far greater security in place around the voting this time around and I imagine will also be the case if things are tight and contested.
Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:
1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;
2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;
3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;
4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.
Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun
I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
BREEEEAAAKKKKKKKINNNNNGGGG NEEEEEWWSSSSSSSS....more results from our exit poll.....after this ad break.....4 ads for erectile dysfunction and diabetes medication.....out exit poll shows that left handed Asian female cat lovers supported Trump tariff policy 51/49.....
A key point for Sir Alan Bates, which he has made before, is that the government needs to set deadlines for Horizon scandal victims to be given compensation.
He has told MPs he has twice written to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in the past month to say "it needs to be finished by the end of March 2025".
"I never received a response," Sir Alan said, adding: "Deadlines do need to be set. People have been waiting far too long."
---
Another small straw in the wind that the #10 media operation isn't very good. This bloke (quite rightly) is going to make sure everybody knows if you dick him around, if you get a letter from him, probably good idea to get some sort of reply out ASAP.
He was our post master years ago and had a wonderful business and was very popular
Starmer needs to respond as Sir Alan is not someone to fall out with
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
The one thing that was gear grinding for me about latest season of Slow Horses was the portrayal of the new head of MI5.
It was a tad annoying but the chumocracy is a real thing in the UK so it is within the realms of possibility that an incompetent could be given the job because he knows the right people and went to that right school and Oxford college. I think the more gearing thing was having Hugo Weaving put on an American accent. It just doesn't seem necessary.
Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.
I'm a qualified Lego therapist. My rates are reasonable.
The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?
They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces
You should.
Okay, on a quieter politics day though!
There's an Irish one coming up soon. Textbook STV election.
May have the best performing incumbent government of the post inflation surge world.
Latest poll put Fine Gael on 26%, up a scarcely credible 5pp on the last election.
I don't think there's much to be gained reading into early voter patterns by party ID, especially not from Florida which is not a swing state.
I had quite a big red (By my standards) on Trump back in 2020, felt very very ill when the Miami vote dropped tbh but it wasn't representative then, so yeah I don't think we can extrapolate from Florida. It probably correlates best with the RGV in south Texas which puts it out of reach for the Democrats even in a landslide for Harris.
She REFUSED to Listen: Inside Thatcher's Monetarism Experiment Sir Tim Lankester, Margaret Thatcher's first private secretary for economic affairs, discusses his new book "Inside Thatcher's Monetarism Experiment" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XntmE8UIghQ
I haven't delved into this - but I would note that this phrase is often used incorrectly: "wouldn't listen" is more often than not used to mean "listened, but wouldn't agree".
I don't think there's much to be gained reading into early voter patterns by party ID, especially not from Florida which is not a swing state.
Most of the anecdata seems to be going Trumps' way though, doesn't it? If Harris were going to pluck a surprise victory out of this then I think we'd be seeing more surprising data coming through, and at least some datapoints that look better than their 2020 equivalents.
The NYTimes/Siena poll had the Republicans +13 in Florida, and basically said "everyone else is reading Florida wrong, it's going to be a massive Republican blowout".
Of course, if it's R+24 in the end (and I suspect it won't be because I suspect Independents break more Dems), then it's disastrous for Harris, and she will lose nationwide by a big margin.
It can't be R+24 overall as early votes are about 70% of the total expected vote and are R+11 with no adjustment. Plus shy women plus Independents breaking for Dems.
FL:
Total votes: 9,152,354 Dem: 2,955,696 R: 3,974,687 NP: 1,955,901
R lead D by 11%
This is the vote as of now on VoteHub livefeed.
If the Dems lead Independents by 55:45 (which is a big "If") then would be both (a) not competitive in the State, but (b) outperforming the NYTimes Siena poll markedly.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
The one thing that was gear grinding for me about latest season of Slow Horses was the portrayal of the new head of MI5.
It was a tad annoying but the chumocracy is a real thing in the UK so it is within the realms of possibility that an incompetent could be given the job because he knows the right people and went to that right school and Oxford college. I think the more gearing thing was having Hugo Weaving put on an American accent. It just doesn't seem necessary.
It was that he was such a wet. There is definitely people who fail upwards / chumocracy, but normally its they are overbearing, arrogant, and not self aware (see the twats over the Coutts / Natwest Farage debanking scandal) not a total wet.
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
A key point for Sir Alan Bates, which he has made before, is that the government needs to set deadlines for Horizon scandal victims to be given compensation.
He has told MPs he has twice written to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in the past month to say "it needs to be finished by the end of March 2025".
"I never received a response," Sir Alan said, adding: "Deadlines do need to be set. People have been waiting far too long."
---
Another small straw in the wind that the #10 media operation isn't very good. This bloke (quite rightly) is going to make sure everybody knows if you dick him around, if you get a letter from him, probably good idea to get some sort of reply out ASAP.
He was our post master years ago and had a wonderful business and was very popular
Starmer needs to respond as Sir Alan is not someone to fall out with
BREEEEAAAKKKKKKKINNNNNGGGG NEEEEEWWSSSSSSSS....more results from our exit poll.....after this ad break.....4 ads for erectile dysfunction and diabetes medication.....out exit poll shows that left handed Asian female cat lovers supported Trump tariff policy 51/49.....
RFK Jr has actually suggested banning the pharma ads from TV - which would be the final nail in the coffin of cable news, if nothing else.
I don't think there's much to be gained reading into early voter patterns by party ID, especially not from Florida which is not a swing state.
Most of the anecdata seems to be going Trumps' way though, doesn't it? If Harris were going to pluck a surprise victory out of this then I think we'd be seeing more surprising data coming through, and at least some datapoints that look better than their 2020 equivalents.
But are the anecdotes you are seeing being fed to you via a Trump lens...
Remember anecdotes are just stories that may or may not reflect reality and may reflect someone preparing for a "it was stolen" narrative tomorrow morning..
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
BREEEEAAAKKKKKKKINNNNNGGGG NEEEEEWWSSSSSSSS....more results from our exit poll.....after this ad break.....4 ads for erectile dysfunction and diabetes medication.....out exit poll shows that left handed Asian female cat lovers supported Trump tariff policy 51/49.....
RFK Jr has actually suggested banning the pharma ads from TV - which would be the final nail in the coffin of cable news, if nothing else.
We will get the first numbers from Kentucky, where polls in the Eastern half of the stake close at 6pm first. So: not long after 11pm UK time, the first figures will start to show on the various news sites. There basically haven't been any polls from Kentucky (literally none on Trump v Harris), and Trump won it by 26 points in 2016. Almost all the Democrat votes (literally) are in two urban counties, with many of the rural ones coming in with 80+% numbers for Trump last time. Therefore, one probably can't read too much into early results.
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
At 12:30am UK time, North Carolina polls close. And they will drop - almost immediately - about 35% of the votes. Now - unlike with Georgia - I don't known the composition of the early votes there. But I think the Democrats would want to see a lead to be confident of being competitive in the State. We probably won't know for sure which way the State is pointing until 1:30am, when 65% of the vote will be in.
Georgia, I've written on below, but by 1am UK time, we're going to have 75% of the state counted. At that point - unless it's something like Harris +3 - we're going to know the likely winner of the state.
Virginia closed at 7pm Eastern (midnight UK), but it is a relatively slow counter. If @Renegade_pollster is right, though, we'll see some big Republican numbers early from here because rural areas report first. The same is true of New Hampshire, where - again - it will take some time for votes to be counted.
We won't get anything from Michigan or Pennsylvania until 2am UK time, and Wisconsin will be 3am. That said, at least Wisconsin counts quickly. We should know the results of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 4am UK time, which will also be when Arizona drops. (Yes, Arizona gets its results out before Michigan.)
Nevada I'm afraid probably won't report its first vote until 6am UK time, so I probably wouldn't stay up for that unless it was a complete nail biter.
Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.
I'm a qualified Lego therapist. My rates are reasonable.
The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?
They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces
For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.
We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.
Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
The one thing that was gear grinding for me about latest season of Slow Horses was the portrayal of the new head of MI5.
They obviously couldn't get Tom Hollander, for which the role was made, but yes, it was very jarring.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
I don't think there's much to be gained reading into early voter patterns by party ID, especially not from Florida which is not a swing state.
Most of the anecdata seems to be going Trumps' way though, doesn't it? If Harris were going to pluck a surprise victory out of this then I think we'd be seeing more surprising data coming through, and at least some datapoints that look better than their 2020 equivalents.
But are the anecdotes you are seeing being fed to you via a Trump lens...
Remember anecdotes are just stories that may or may not reflect reality and may reflect someone preparing for a "it was stolen" narrative tomorrow morning..
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
One thing that you perhaps could extrapolate is whether Puerto Rico-gate has had any impact.
We will get the first numbers from Kentucky, where polls in the Eastern half of the stake close at 6pm first. So: not long after 11pm UK time, the first figures will start to show on the various news sites. There basically haven't been any polls from Kentucky (literally none on Trump v Harris), and Trump won it by 26 points in 2016. Almost all the Democrat votes (literally) are in two urban counties, with many of the rural ones coming in with 80+% numbers for Trump last time. Therefore, one probably can't read too much into early results.
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
At 12:30am UK time, North Carolina polls close. And they will drop - almost immediately - about 35% of the votes. Now - unlike with Georgia - I don't known the composition of the early votes there. But I think the Democrats would want to see a lead to be confident of being competitive in the State. We probably won't know for sure which way the State is pointing until 1:30am, when 65% of the vote will be in.
Georgia, I've written on below, but by 1am UK time, we're going to have 75% of the state counted. At that point - unless it's something like Harris +3 - we're going to know the likely winner of the state.
Virginia closed at 7pm Eastern (midnight UK), but it is a relatively slow counter. If @Renegade_pollster is right, though, we'll see some big Republican numbers early from here because rural areas report first. The same is true of New Hampshire, where - again - it will take some time for votes to be counted.
We won't get anything from Michigan or Pennsylvania until 2am UK time, and Wisconsin will be 3am. That said, at least Wisconsin counts quickly. We should know the results of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 4am UK time, which will also be when Arizona drops. (Yes, Arizona gets its results out before Michigan.)
Nevada I'm afraid probably won't report its first vote until 6am UK time, so I probably wouldn't stay up for that unless it was a complete nail biter.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
Not sure that's fair - Slow Horses feels like a rare beacon of normal annual seasons in a world where post Covid you're lucky to get a series every 2 years now.
Stranger things relies on child actors and they're still waiting till half of them are 30 to wrap up.
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Very good post.
A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.
It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.
It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.
On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.
There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
Not sure that's fair - Slow Horses feels like a rare beacon of normal annual seasons in a world where post Covid you're lucky to get a series every 2 years now.
Stranger things relies on child actors and they're still waiting till half of them are 30 to wrap up.
Pre-Covid it was absolutely true all the streaming platform ran on at least a season a year. I am sure COVID and the strikes have had an impact. Even then, it isn't 5-10 years between seasons. The BBC never have, that's the point. Peaky Blinders took 10 years to make just 36 episodes. No way a Netflix doesn't put the hammer down when they get a massive hit like that.
Minnesota I have put some money on it going Red. The rationale is:
1. Demographics fairly favourable to Trump;
2. He was close in 2016 if not 2020;
3. Polling has been scarce - the last two were Ras and Atlas but a few weeks back the Minneapolis Post only had Harris was a +3 lead;
4. Minnesota was one of those states that had a heavy anti-Biden vote in the primaries. It has a large-ish Somali population and it is a widely held Muslim view that the Palestinian issue is a Muslim one, not an Arab one o.e. if dissatisfaction at Harris over Gaza is widespread, it will manifest itself in the Somali population.
Re Virginia, weighing things up - Youngkin's arguments seem credible but the demographics are less attractive. However (1) the turnout in Democrat areas has lagged R ones generally (2) the question mark over the Black vote and (3) the trans issue effect, particularly in places like Loudoun
I am really not buying this ‘trans issue effect’. PS I live in Loudoun
I don't buy it either, but Megyn Kelly is very worried about it, so who knows.
He quite explicitly talked about future elections in a snippet I saw. I think its hyperbolae to talk in such terms. I also note that with the events of 4 years hence in mind, there is far greater security in place around the voting this time around and I imagine will also be the case if things are tight and contested.
On which, a Philadelphian being very Philly: Philadelphia DA Larry ‘F around and find out’ Krasner
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
One thing that you perhaps could extrapolate is whether Puerto Rico-gate has had any impact.
I am highly skeptical that any of the so called gaffes have much impact.
Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.
I'm a qualified Lego therapist. My rates are reasonable.
The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?
They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces
For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Very good post.
A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.
It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.
It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.
On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.
There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
BREEEEAAAKKKKKKKINNNNNGGGG NEEEEEWWSSSSSSSS....more results from our exit poll.....after this ad break.....4 ads for erectile dysfunction and diabetes medication.....out exit poll shows that left handed Asian female cat lovers supported Trump tariff policy 51/49.....
I have to take a train to Manchester at 6.46 tomorrow so I'll be getting up at 5.15. Perfect timing really to follow the results and get myself hyped/depressed for the day ahead.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
The one thing that was gear grinding for me about latest season of Slow Horses was the portrayal of the new head of MI5.
It was a tad annoying but the chumocracy is a real thing in the UK so it is within the realms of possibility that an incompetent could be given the job because he knows the right people and went to that right school and Oxford college. I think the more gearing thing was having Hugo Weaving put on an American accent. It just doesn't seem necessary.
It was that he was such a wet. There is definitely people who fail upwards / chumocracy, but normally its they are overbearing, arrogant, and not self aware (see the twats over the Coutts / Natwest Farage debanking scandal) not a total wet.
You find them everywhere. The Americans have the term "failson" to describe them.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
Hm. I'm no fan of the BBC model, but I'll stick up for them here. I rather prefer the BBC approach of rare gems which end when they end to the commercial model of cranking out another series and another series and another series as the quality gradually declines and the end doesn't necessarily correspond to where a satisfying narrative should.
I loved the Office, for example, or the Royle Family. But I wouldn't have wanted them to go on indefinitely. Two series and a Christmas special, bringing the narrative to a close, then stop.
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Very good post.
A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.
It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.
It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.
On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.
There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
Spot on!
Go to a movie.
Have a meal.
Settle down about midnight.
Go to bed about half one, when Harris has clearly won Georgia, North Carolina...
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
One thing that you perhaps could extrapolate is whether Puerto Rico-gate has had any impact.
I am highly skeptical that any of the so called gaffes have much impact.
I saw one report today that Garbagegate has resulted in a +9 swing to Harris in that community. Caveat emptor.
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
One of my clients lives in Pennsylvania. She said she's been bombarded with texts, calls and emails for weeks, "like nothing I've seen before in an election". Must be a bit wearing living in a swing state.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Good advice. I can't settle today. The calm before the storm.
Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.
I'm a qualified Lego therapist. My rates are reasonable.
The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?
They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces
For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.
We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.
Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
The Roswell museum’s exhibits include over 750,000 pieces!!
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
I am astonished that it is 10 years. However, in this case the last book (the mirror and the light) wasn't published until 2020, so we can cut the BBC some slack in this case!
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
Hm. I'm no fan of the BBC model, but I'll stick up for them here. I rather prefer the BBC approach of rare gems which end when they end to the commercial model of cranking out another series and another series and another series as the quality gradually declines and the end doesn't necessarily correspond to where a satisfying narrative should.
I loved the Office, for example, or the Royle Family. But I wouldn't have wanted them to go on indefinitely. Two series and a Christmas special, bringing the narrative to a close, then stop.
There is a balance. US network tv and Netflix went too far down the make slop, make lots of it, 20 episodes a season, crank it out. But HBO didn't with the golden age of telly e.g. the Wire, 5 seasons, ~12 episodes a season in 8 years, Sopranos, 6 seasons, 13 episodes per season over 8 years. And Netflix with stuff like Slow Horses, Night Agent, etc they are returning to that model.
That should be the BBC model, get a hit, make a decent amount of it in a reason time frame, so you end up with a body of work of say 50 episodes (not made the time it takes for a kid to go through schooling).
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Good advice. I can't settle today. The calm before the storm.
BREEEEAAAKKKKKKKINNNNNGGGG NEEEEEWWSSSSSSSS....more results from our exit poll.....after this ad break.....4 ads for erectile dysfunction and diabetes medication.....out exit poll shows that left handed Asian female cat lovers supported Trump tariff policy 51/49.....
Those advertisers know their audience 👀
We are in health insurance season, so you missed the Medicare Part C ads from that list.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
Four years is a very long lead time for an active series.
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
One of my clients lives in Pennsylvania. She said she's been bombarded with texts, calls and emails for weeks, "like nothing I've seen before in an election". Must be a bit wearing living in a swing state.
Oh it must have been utterly horrible to live in PA for the last few months.
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
One thing that you perhaps could extrapolate is whether Puerto Rico-gate has had any impact.
I am highly skeptical that any of the so called gaffes have much impact.
I think Biden's "garbagegate" had some impact.
It showed he would have been disastrous at running another campaign.
Harris has run the controlled campaign Biden could not. Your heart would have been in your mouth every time he was in front of a podium. Plus Trump would have been in the comfort zone he clearly was well adrift of facing Harris.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
Four years is a very long lead time for an active series.
But if you need a particular set of actors who are out of contract - you have no choice but to wait until their calendars all coincide..
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
I make the Republicans slight favourites in Pennsylvania, but only slight. I think it's the inverse of Georgia, in that they've done a better job with their early votes, while the Democrats are relying on on the day GOTV. (Where long lines are very effective voter repellants.)
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
Hm. I'm no fan of the BBC model, but I'll stick up for them here. I rather prefer the BBC approach of rare gems which end when they end to the commercial model of cranking out another series and another series and another series as the quality gradually declines and the end doesn't necessarily correspond to where a satisfying narrative should.
I loved the Office, for example, or the Royle Family. But I wouldn't have wanted them to go on indefinitely. Two series and a Christmas special, bringing the narrative to a close, then stop.
Ghosts provides a classic example of why sometimes less is better. Five series, 34 eps and done. And its great. As Bob says in Blackadder Goes Forth - always leave them wanting more.
An ensemble cast, allowing each to have strong stories told about them but done with charm and wit.
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
One of my clients lives in Pennsylvania. She said she's been bombarded with texts, calls and emails for weeks, "like nothing I've seen before in an election". Must be a bit wearing living in a swing state.
Oh it must have been utterly horrible to live in PA for the last few months.
Just the last few months? Have you never been to Phildelphia?
(Although I grant Pittsburgh is genuinely beautiful.)
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
Is this satire ?
The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
At midnight UK time, the polls close in (most of) Florida and Georgia. Personally, I buy the NYTimes thesis that Florida has trended sharply red since 2016 (with the Democrats having won essentially no statewide races in a decade), and I suspect this won't be any different. That said: if Trump looks like he's carrying Florida by more than 15 percentage points (i.e. slightly more than the NYTimes poll), then you want to pile on him. Conversely, if it looks close, then it's very good news for Harris. But I would be wary of extrapolating too much.
One thing that you perhaps could extrapolate is whether Puerto Rico-gate has had any impact.
Surely unless you can find a parallel universe in which that particular gaff isn't made, you'll never know - if Harris wins, it could be that the polls were wrong all along, or it could be a late swing because one of Trump's mates said something stupid - how on earth would we know either way?
If Trump wins, the same applies - would have have won by a larger margin without it?
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
Not sure that's fair - Slow Horses feels like a rare beacon of normal annual seasons in a world where post Covid you're lucky to get a series every 2 years now.
Stranger things relies on child actors and they're still waiting till half of them are 30 to wrap up.
Pre-Covid it was absolutely true all the streaming platform ran on at least a season a year. I am sure COVID and the strikes have had an impact. Even then, it isn't 5-10 years between seasons. The BBC never have, that's the point. Peaky Blinders took 10 years to make just 36 episodes. No way a Netflix doesn't put the hammer down when they get a massive hit like that.
Netflix (used to) contract at the outset for seven seasons so that the story arc could be well-developed and hence you have some of the best telly ever produced (Wire, Sopranos, Breaking Bad, etc).
The BBC seems to stumble from one season to another with no real direction (while there shouldn't necessarily be commercial reasons). I can't wait for the second season of Boiling Point (the TV series) as S.1 was left on a cliff-hanger, but no sign at all of anything.
I get if a series is binned midway by the commercial networks, happens all the time (Kaos the most recent high profile example) but the BBC?
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Good advice. I can't settle today. The calm before the storm.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
I say this time and time again, this is a huge flaw in the way the BBC operates. They get a hit, and then it takes them forever to make another season (sometimes not at all).
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
It's inevitable because of their awful funding model. If they were privatised and funded by advertisers or subscribers, they would have much more of an incentive to jump on and exploit successes.
Why when they can make the 117th season of bargain hunt?
Looking at the latest TV ratings, there's only one potential 'classic' amongst them: Ludwig. Everything else is polyfilla. But I bet if we were to pick any random week in the 70s, 80s or 90s, it may be similar.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
The novels the final three series of Game of Thronea are based on have never even been published...
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Good advice. I can't settle today. The calm before the storm.
I've had three shits.
You may get another tomorrow, for the next four years, at least.
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
Is this satire ?
The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
No, I'd forgotten that the original series covered both Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies.
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
One of my clients lives in Pennsylvania. She said she's been bombarded with texts, calls and emails for weeks, "like nothing I've seen before in an election". Must be a bit wearing living in a swing state.
Oh it must have been utterly horrible to live in PA for the last few months.
Just the last few months? Have you never been to Phildelphia?
(Although I grant Pittsburgh is genuinely beautiful.)
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
The novels the final three series of Game of Thronea are based on have never even been published...
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Pollsters may as well have fun. If Trump wins, there may not be another presidential election betting market in the future.
Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.
I'm a qualified Lego therapist. My rates are reasonable.
The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?
They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces
For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.
We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.
Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
The novels the final three series of Game of Thronea are based on have never even been published...
My wife and I raced through season 2 of The Diplomat, what a let down. The first season already stretched credibility the second just breaks it completely and the ending is just cheap drama.
Slow Horses is easily the better drama of the two. The Diplomat takes a dramatised American approach to British politics and while it might work for American audiences, for me it just didn't feel credible at all. The idea that the Foreign Secretary would basically ask the permission of the US ambassador to launch a VONC is ridiculous.
The acting is first rate though and probably what saves it, the script and story could use a lot of refinement.
Wolf Hall out on Sunday. Typical *10 year wait* from the BBC for series 2.
The novel the new series is based on was only published four years ago.
The novels the final three series of Game of Thronea are based on have never even been published...
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Very good post.
A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.
It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.
It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.
On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.
There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
Spot on!
Go to a movie.
Have a meal.
Settle down about midnight.
Go to bed about half one, when Harris has clearly won Georgia, North Carolina...
I wish I had your confidence.
LBC callers have been trolling me on my journey home and I couldn't cope with Mr Ed's Trump ramping last time out. With William Glenn at it this time too I will be having heart palpitations. Perhaps it is better for the nerves to wait it out for some tangible evidence rather than panic over the anecdota which sadly appears to be very Trump heavy.
Feeling nervous about the vote? At @Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, students dealing with election jitters can play with Legos, or have milk and cookies.
I'm a qualified Lego therapist. My rates are reasonable.
The Lego Star Destroyer was my greatest achievement.
I’ve got Concorde, Space Shuttle, Saturn V, International Space Station, and two Porsche 911s, in various places around my house. Perhaps I should get them together for a photo at some point?
They managed to make the Saturn V from 1969 pieces
For Lego nerds, the Lego Museum in Roswell is a must. Stumbled across it during my road trip this spring.
We were in Llandudno in September and one of the churches had an lego exhibition on.
Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
Not sure I could get nearly £600 past herself for the Titanic, but it does look stunning, the way it splits in three parts to reveal the boilers and all....
Just the 9090 pieces.
The Titanic at the Roswell exhibit was stunning. I always forget how to post photos here. If you can remind me, I can post.
Summary of the reliable information we have so far:
1 - We don't really know anything. 2 - We don't really know anything. 3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it. Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Pollsters may as well have fun. If Trump wins, there may not be another presidential election betting market in the future.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 31m Florida still looking very strong for Trump. In contrast some (again, very, very early) positive numbers for Harris coming out of Nevada.
Loads of photos online of long lines in various towns in Pennsylvania.
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
I make the Republicans slight favourites in Pennsylvania, but only slight. I think it's the inverse of Georgia, in that they've done a better job with their early votes, while the Democrats are relying on on the day GOTV. (Where long lines are very effective voter repellants.)
There are very long lines of students from early on.
Is your so-so engaged Trump supporter who hasn't taken advantrage of early voting going to stand in line for hours?
Thanks to James and some final 'before' thoughts from me:
The polls are tied having moved towards Trump in the last few weeks. Trump probably has a PV to EC advantage. Therefore the betting is rational in making him the fav. Nevertheless I think the betting has it wrong. I’ve long thought America would never reelect Donald Trump because he’s palpably unfit to be president. I still think that. You can talk all you like about the economy and the border, Biden’s approval rating, about demographics, men v women, young v old, college degree or not, black, white, hispanic, sunbelt rustbelt, yada yada, it’s great, it’s what makes US elections such a blast, but at the end of the day the fundamental question is, knowing what they know, having seen what they’ve seen, will the American people put this guy back in the WH? It’s a no. I’m not as confident as the likes of MarqueMark but I am confident. Kamala Harris will win and it won’t be that close.
At the same time, because people are strange and I’m no exception, I’m incredibly anxious about the outcome. Just to illustrate. I was down the golf club today practicing my putting. I’m not a bad putter (quite a nice smooth stroke) but my weakness is short ones under pressure. I can hole three footer after three footer on the practice green but out on the course, scorecard in hand, I’ll tense up and miss a couple. So practicing today, as per usual I was rolling in the short ones, plop plop plop, and then I did an experiment. Every now and again I’d say to myself “ok, so now this one is for the election, hole it and Kamala wins Trump loses.” Result? I missed every time. Stroke gone, wrists jerking, most of them didn’t even touch the hole. That’s how nervous I am, I’m shitting bricks. Thank goodness I can start the evening with Bake Off.
See you all anon. Good luck with everyone's betting - inc bets on Trump so long as they are hedges.
Alayhi as-salām (AAS) is a phrase Muslims say whenever they refer to the name of any prophet, messenger, and chosen figure of God. "Peace be upon him" is the English translation of alayhi as-salām.
The phrase is used in Islamic practice to show respect. Muslims say or write the phrase to get Allah's blessings for the prophet/messenger, and in turn, get blessings for themselves
Comments
BREEEEAAAKKKKKKKINNNNNGGGG NEEEEEWWSSSSSSSS....more results from our exit poll.....after this ad break.....4 ads for erectile dysfunction and diabetes medication.....out exit poll shows that left handed Asian female cat lovers supported Trump tariff policy 51/49.....
Latest poll put Fine Gael on 26%, up a scarcely credible 5pp on the last election.
1 - We don't really know anything.
2 - We don't really know anything.
3 - Early returns indicate that... sorry, we don't really know anything.
That's it.
Reliable posters will be reading too much into hopecasting or doomcasting, or extrapolating from tiny non-representative datasets in a futile attempt to peer into a jet-black crystal ball.
@rcs1000 's post a few minutes ago summarises it: we won't know squat until the early hours of tomorrow morning, and even then it'll likely be fuzzy as hell (if not, then it's a blowout for one side or the other and that's it).
Relax. Pace yourselves. There's only so much anticipation or dread a body can take.
Remember anecdotes are just stories that may or may not reflect reality and may reflect someone preparing for a "it was stolen" narrative tomorrow morning..
Slow Horses, they already have the new season in the can when they show the latest one. They will have 5 seasons worth of content in 5 years. So even if people don't see it first time around, people come across it, like it, and can then watch 50 episodes.
https://x.com/amycalandrino/status/1853546910302253144
* Except the Commissioner of Agriculture
The GOP won ED in 2020 by 11 points .
Younger people normally vote later in the day so there’s now a decent chance the Dems could win the ED vote in Clark county.
Now I don't know who built all the Lego kits but there was a fair few thousand pounds of lego there and it allowed me to identify a few sets that I would be tempted to buy...
Stranger things relies on child actors and they're still waiting till half of them are 30 to wrap up.
A lot of nervous energy on here, and a lot of extrapolation being made from… well, not much.
It bears repeating - the winner will be determined not in Florida or New York or New Jersey, but in the seven states.
It only takes a Harris win in Wi/MI/PA (with NE-02) to win the EC.
On the other hand, if polls understated Trump again then it’s not inconceivable that he’ll sweep the board.
There is a long way to go. And not much we can reliably draw from the information available to us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5u1tH4X680o
Does anyone know who’s the main Democrat operatives there? I’ve only got Republicans @ScottPresler and @JackPosobiec, both of whom seem pretty happy so far.
If I get this right, it's 2/3 predictions for me right since 2019.
I loved the Office, for example, or the Royle Family. But I wouldn't have wanted them to go on indefinitely. Two series and a Christmas special, bringing the narrative to a close, then stop.
Have a meal.
Settle down about midnight.
Go to bed about half one, when Harris has clearly won Georgia, North Carolina...
I've had three shits.
That should be the BBC model, get a hit, make a decent amount of it in a reason time frame, so you end up with a body of work of say 50 episodes (not made the time it takes for a kid to go through schooling).
It showed he would have been disastrous at running another campaign.
Harris has run the controlled campaign Biden could not. Your heart would have been in your mouth every time he was in front of a podium. Plus Trump would have been in the comfort zone he clearly was well adrift of facing Harris.
(Sorry)
An ensemble cast, allowing each to have strong stories told about them but done with charm and wit.
(Although I grant Pittsburgh is genuinely beautiful.)
The novel The Mirror and the Light was only published in 2020
If Trump wins, the same applies - would have have won by a larger margin without it?
The BBC seems to stumble from one season to another with no real direction (while there shouldn't necessarily be commercial reasons). I can't wait for the second season of Boiling Point (the TV series) as S.1 was left on a cliff-hanger, but no sign at all of anything.
I get if a series is binned midway by the commercial networks, happens all the time (Kaos the most recent high profile example) but the BBC?
@KateEMcCann
NEW: Mark Francois is the new shadow minister of state for Defence
https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/most-viewed-programmes/
Betting markets continue to move towards Trump in Pennsylvania. We're now:
Trump - 8/13
Harris - 13/10
Just the 9090 pieces.
David Plouffe says Kamala Harris could win allseven7 swing states
https://x.com/thehill/status/1853833667916816389
LBC callers have been trolling me on my journey home and I couldn't cope with Mr Ed's Trump ramping last time out. With William Glenn at it this time too I will be having heart palpitations. Perhaps it is better for the nerves to wait it out for some tangible evidence rather than panic over the anecdota which sadly appears to be very Trump heavy.
@DPJHodges
·
31m
Florida still looking very strong for Trump. In contrast some (again, very, very early) positive numbers for Harris coming out of Nevada.
Is your so-so engaged Trump supporter who hasn't taken advantrage of early voting going to stand in line for hours?
The polls are tied having moved towards Trump in the last few weeks. Trump probably has a PV to EC advantage. Therefore the betting is rational in making him the fav. Nevertheless I think the betting has it wrong. I’ve long thought America would never reelect Donald Trump because he’s palpably unfit to be president. I still think that. You can talk all you like about the economy and the border, Biden’s approval rating, about demographics, men v women, young v old, college degree or not, black, white, hispanic, sunbelt rustbelt, yada yada, it’s great, it’s what makes US elections such a blast, but at the end of the day the fundamental question is, knowing what they know, having seen what they’ve seen, will the American people put this guy back in the WH? It’s a no. I’m not as confident as the likes of MarqueMark but I am confident. Kamala Harris will win and it won’t be that close.
At the same time, because people are strange and I’m no exception, I’m incredibly anxious about the outcome. Just to illustrate. I was down the golf club today practicing my putting. I’m not a bad putter (quite a nice smooth stroke) but my weakness is short ones under pressure. I can hole three footer after three footer on the practice green but out on the course, scorecard in hand, I’ll tense up and miss a couple. So practicing today, as per usual I was rolling in the short ones, plop plop plop, and then I did an experiment. Every now and again I’d say to myself “ok, so now this one is for the election, hole it and Kamala wins Trump loses.” Result? I missed every time. Stroke gone, wrists jerking, most of them didn’t even touch the hole. That’s how nervous I am, I’m shitting bricks. Thank goodness I can start the evening with Bake Off.
See you all anon. Good luck with everyone's betting - inc bets on Trump so long as they are hedges.
The phrase is used in Islamic practice to show respect. Muslims say or write the phrase to get Allah's blessings for the prophet/messenger, and in turn, get blessings for themselves
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_be_upon_him_(Islam)