@MhariAurora BREAKING: Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet has been announced ahead of its first meeting this morning…
💷 Shadow Chancellor - Mel Stride 🚔Shadow Home - Chris Philp 🌍Shadow Foreign - Priti Patel 🪖Shadow Defence - James Cartildge 🏥Shadow Health - Ed Agar 📚Shadow Education - Laura Trott 🤝Shadow Business - Andrew Griffith 🏠Shadow Housing - Kevin Hollinrake ⚖️Shadow Justice - Robert Jenrick 💰Shadow Work & Pensions - Helen Whately 💡Shadow Energy - Claire Coutinho 📟Shadow Science & Tech - Alan Mak 🏴 Shadow Scotland - Andrew Bowie 🇬🇧 Shadow NI - Alex Burghart 🏴Shadow Wales - Mims Davies 🚂Shadow Transport - Gareth Bacon ♻️Shadow Environment - Victoria Atkins 🎭Shadow Culture - Stuart Andrew
My analysis of the election has changed. If I had a vote, it would be for Trump. The defining issue for me is Ukraine. I don't think that the democrats can solve this and I think they will end up gradually losing the war in Ukraine, as the conflict continues on its current trajectory with no apparent strategic direction. This could cause the rapid collapse of more countries, and significant consequential damage. My gut feeling is that Trump would be more likely to find a strategic solution to the issue of conflict with Russia. This puts me at odds with almost everyone, including everyone I know in Finland, but it is my assessment of the situation. There is too much familiarity bias and continuity bias which fuels the assumption that Harris would preserve NATO and the European security arrangement. With Trump there is the possibility of an updated solution to the security question, there is a risk that this fails, but the current direction of travel seems to lead to failure anyway. I have this view even accepting that Trump is a significant threat to democracy itself. But I was influenced a lot by Niall Ferguson's recent comments.
No there isn’t - Trump will simply cut off the supply of arms to the Ukraine and Russia will take over. Then wait a few years to rebuild their supplies before moving on to the next part of “mother Russia” that was stolen from Moscow
Which may include Finland.
More the Baltics. Plus a nice big land corridor to Kaliningrad.
Then Poland and East Germany, why stop there? Next stop Paris.
Putin is not going to invade Poland, Germany and France. For a start he knows that will trigger nuclear war and destroy Russia forever
You’re probably joking but it’s still good to keep Putin in perspective
Would it though? Against France maybe as it has its own independent nuclear weapons. The others don't though and if Trump pulled out of NATO would he even send troops to defend them if Putin invaded let alone US nukes?
If Trump pulled out of NATO and withdrew the nuclear umbrella the EU (probably along with the UK) would develop an independent nuclear deterrent very quickly - using French tech I imagine
My analysis of the election has changed. If I had a vote, it would be for Trump. The defining issue for me is Ukraine. I don't think that the democrats can solve this and I think they will end up gradually losing the war in Ukraine, as the conflict continues on its current trajectory with no apparent strategic direction. This could cause the rapid collapse of more countries, and significant consequential damage. My gut feeling is that Trump would be more likely to find a strategic solution to the issue of conflict with Russia. This puts me at odds with almost everyone, including everyone I know in Finland, but it is my assessment of the situation. There is too much familiarity bias and continuity bias which fuels the assumption that Harris would preserve NATO and the European security arrangement. With Trump there is the possibility of an updated solution to the security question, there is a risk that this fails, but the current direction of travel seems to lead to failure anyway. I have this view even accepting that Trump is a significant threat to democracy itself. But I was influenced a lot by Niall Ferguson's recent comments.
No there isn’t - Trump will simply cut off the supply of arms to the Ukraine and Russia will take over. Then wait a few years to rebuild their supplies before moving on to the next part of “mother Russia” that was stolen from Moscow
Which may include Finland.
More the Baltics. Plus a nice big land corridor to Kaliningrad.
Then Poland and East Germany, why stop there? Next stop Paris.
Putin is not going to invade Poland, Germany and France. For a start he knows that will trigger nuclear war and destroy Russia forever
You’re probably joking but it’s still good to keep Putin in perspective
Would it though? Against France maybe as it has its own independent nuclear weapons. The others don't though and if Trump pulled out of NATO would he even send troops to defend them if Putin invaded let alone US nukes?
He'll go for the Baltics. Small, formerly part of USSR itself, and with largeish Russian minorities. NATO members, but he'll take risk, as he gains enhanced access to Baltic.
Indeed but would rest of NATO defend them is the question, especially if Trump had pulled the US out of NATO?
Certainly if Trump won the rest of NATO would have to rapidly increase defence spending and military production to provide more aid to Ukraine and its neighbours if needed
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
The students are students of Martin Lewis and are aware that if the increase affects them at all it would be a marginal impact in 30 years time.
How much you borrow makes no difference to how much you pay back each month; most will never pay it all back. Some will pay none or almost none.
I think Phillipson has threaded the needle with universities - over time it should mean the courses offered are more "correct" for the economy because wages should outpace prices in the long run meaning essentially Universities will be squeezed for cash. I know they're getting more money but I think the deal gets us back to where universities should be in the long run.
Quite an interesting comment from Farage that Harris should pardon Trump, if she wins, so as to create national unity.
Suggests the Trump team have given some thought to what happens if he loses. The deal would he be, he goes quietly and tells his supporters not to cause any trouble in exchange for a pardon (presumably from Biden so Harris isn't sullied by it)
@MhariAurora BREAKING: Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet has been announced ahead of its first meeting this morning…
💷 Shadow Chancellor - Mel Stride 🚔Shadow Home - Chris Philp 🌍Shadow Foreign - Priti Patel 🪖Shadow Defence - James Cartildge 🏥Shadow Health - Ed Agar 📚Shadow Education - Laura Trott 🤝Shadow Business - Andrew Griffith 🏠Shadow Housing - Kevin Hollinrake ⚖️Shadow Justice - Robert Jenrick 💰Shadow Work & Pensions - Helen Whately 💡Shadow Energy - Claire Coutinho 📟Shadow Science & Tech - Alan Mak 🏴 Shadow Scotland - Andrew Bowie 🇬🇧 Shadow NI - Alex Burghart 🏴Shadow Wales - Mims Davies 🚂Shadow Transport - Gareth Bacon ♻️Shadow Environment - Victoria Atkins 🎭Shadow Culture - Stuart Andrew
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
It certainly isn't being accepted if the twitter posts I have seen are anything to go by, certainly plenty of students crying betrayal and going Green
They need to look at the actual reality: a large chunk of them will never pay this as they will never pay off the loan.
My analysis of the election has changed. If I had a vote, it would be for Trump. The defining issue for me is Ukraine. I don't think that the democrats can solve this and I think they will end up gradually losing the war in Ukraine, as the conflict continues on its current trajectory with no apparent strategic direction. This could cause the rapid collapse of more countries, and significant consequential damage. My gut feeling is that Trump would be more likely to find a strategic solution to the issue of conflict with Russia. This puts me at odds with almost everyone, including everyone I know in Finland, but it is my assessment of the situation. There is too much familiarity bias and continuity bias which fuels the assumption that Harris would preserve NATO and the European security arrangement. With Trump there is the possibility of an updated solution to the security question, there is a risk that this fails, but the current direction of travel seems to lead to failure anyway. I have this view even accepting that Trump is a significant threat to democracy itself. But I was influenced a lot by Niall Ferguson's recent comments.
No there isn’t - Trump will simply cut off the supply of arms to the Ukraine and Russia will take over. Then wait a few years to rebuild their supplies before moving on to the next part of “mother Russia” that was stolen from Moscow
Which may include Finland.
More the Baltics. Plus a nice big land corridor to Kaliningrad.
Then Poland and East Germany, why stop there? Next stop Paris.
Putin is not going to invade Poland, Germany and France. For a start he knows that will trigger nuclear war and destroy Russia forever
You’re probably joking but it’s still good to keep Putin in perspective
Would it though? Against France maybe as it has its own independent nuclear weapons. The others don't though and if Trump pulled out of NATO would he even send troops to defend them if Putin invaded let alone US nukes?
If Trump pulled out of NATO and withdrew the nuclear umbrella the EU (probably along with the UK) would develop an independent nuclear deterrent very quickly - using French tech I imagine
The Germans would probably veto that at an EU level. But would be powerless to stop Poland going for it.
The French long wanted the U.K./US warhead designs. Apparently they never quite got there with spheroid secondaries.
Re the US election, naturally enough I think Trump will win but thoughts.
Firstly, the clues are in plain sight. You only have to look at how Americans view the country, the Administration and the main concerns (economy / inflation, immigration etc) to see Trump will win. Especially when a lot of Americans view his Administration positively.
Then look at what the early voting data. Ralston (who, BTW, I have a lot of sympathy for) has said the R lead in NV is unprecedented in recent times. Bitzer has said the same for NC. Rurals are showing up but not in urban areas vs 4 years ago. Black voters are not coming out as they need to for the Democrats. Republicans are ahead by nearly 200K in Arizona, by over 800K in Florida. Sure, in states like PA, the Democrats are ahead but their advantage is far less than in 2020.
Then there is the mood music. @williamglenn was pillorised for reposting a tweet ( https://x.com/vickiefornyc/status/1853511569851982213) re a Democrat insider saying the election is lost but the same theme has played out several times in Politico and The Hill over the past 10 days. There are no similar articles on Trump.
Re the three great hopes of the Democrats - women, young voters and Haley Republicans - think again.
One of the most hilarious things has been an almost uniformly audience of men opining women only care about abortion. It is important but, in my conversations, two women 'specific' issues play well for Republicans - the "men in women's sports / locker rooms" argument and illegal immigrants committing crimes against women. Take a look at the New Yorker article on the Laken Riley murder and it is clear it will be a major factor in Georgia.
Re young voters, let's see but I suspect the pandemic has changed many young voters' perceptions about how they see the world and - for young male voters at least - that may not be positive for the Democrats. Joe Rogan endorsing Trump is a major plus but Trump's outreach efforts have targeted young men specifically.
Finally re Haley Republicans, they are not going to vote for Harris and Walz. To many Republicans, they stand for everything they detest. Harris' response on Proposition 36 in CA only reinforces what they thought. Look at the comments here about AZ and the McCain / Haley Republicans (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/arizona-presidential-election-harris-trump.html) - switchover will be minimal.
So where do I think it will go? Essentially a repeat of 2016 - Trump to essentially win all the states he did plus also NV. I think he will get close in Virginia (couldn't resist that for Anabob) and maybe win NH and NM. I think the Senate will be something like 54-46. The House is a bit more uncertain.
PS look out for NY - it won't go Trump but Hochul only beat Zeldin 54-46 in 2022
I hope that's wrong, but it's an entirely sound analysis.
Trump has also been targeting African-American voters with his warning that immigrants are taking Black jobs. And Hispanic voters with a similar message.
At least it's a consistent message to both groups of people.. Some parties would be saying to African-American voters that Hispanic voters are taking their jobs and vice versa...
And while the story isn't wrong - the issue is more one that employers are willing to use immigrants rather than pay their existing workers a decent wage.
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
The next months/couple of years presents an amazing opportunity to a new Thatcher/Disraeli to come from nowhere to revive conservatism if it isn't to be Badenoch; almost no household names are still around.
It may take longer, and the person is even now polishing their interviewing skills for PPE at Brasenose/Balliol.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
It certainly isn't being accepted if the twitter posts I have seen are anything to go by, certainly plenty of students crying betrayal and going Green
Though the government also announced higher maintenance loans to ease the blow
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
The next months/couple of years presents an amazing opportunity to a new Thatcher/Disraeli to come from nowhere to revive conservatism if it isn't to be Badenoch; almost no household names are still around.
It may take longer, and the person is even now polishing their interviewing skills for PPE at Brasenose/Balliol.
Final TIPP poll in which they change their main headline to show the multi candidate one when they’ve on the previous 22 showed the head to head as the main headline !
Quite an interesting comment from Farage that Harris should pardon Trump, if she wins, so as to create national unity.
Suggests the Trump team have given some thought to what happens if he loses. The deal would he be, he goes quietly and tells his supporters not to cause any trouble in exchange for a pardon (presumably from Biden so Harris isn't sullied by it)
She can't can she? His was a State crime, not a Federal one.
I’ve seen nothing in the stuff overnight that has changed my mind that this will be a Harris win, with Trump taking NV and AZ and Harris the rest.
Trump should take Nevada, it has the highest unemployment rate in the US and probably Georgia which has above average inflation.
Harris will be helped in the blue wall though by the fact inflation in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is below the US average and unemployment in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is also below the US average too
Interesting post. I infer from that that you are forecasting a narrow Harris win? I rate you a lot as a tipster so would be keen to know.
Final TIPP poll in which they change their main headline to show the multi candidate one when they’ve on the previous 22 showed the head to head as the main headline !
The BIG question is is the improvement in the GOP early vote cannibalisation or expansion. The fact the early vote has gone more female than 2020 points to cannibalisation imv.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
I would be happier if I were a Democratic organiser in Georgia, than a Republican. But, there are two issues:
1. If turnout matches 2020, there are 750,000 votes still to come on the day. We don't know how those people will break. They might very well overturn a 166,000 vote firewall, among early voters.
2. We don't actually know how women in Georgia split. The split might be better than an 11% margin for Harris, or it might be worse. That's a major source of uncertainty.
You say it's not about race, but I would counter that race is always the elephant in the room in Southern State elections, some of which are close to ethnic headcounts.
Companies that poll Georgia might in fact, be quite correct.
Requires some special pleading for Harris to lose Georgia. It would have to be in a world all of its own.
That 750,000 still to vote would have to split better than 455k-295k Republican for Trump to win. Nowhere - but nowhere - is he getting splits above 60:40 in national polling. He can't get above 48%.
It's possible that turnout goes through the roof. But then ask yourself which is more likely - a wave of late-breaking Trump voters coming to the polls - or a wave of late-breaking Harris supporters boosting turnout? The polling is saying the late breakers are going decisively to Harris. I know which I think far more likely...
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
The BIG question is is the improvement in the GOP early vote cannibalisation or expansion. The fact the early vote has gone more female than 2020 points to cannibalisation imv.
But we shall see !
Haley Democrats voting early - get the deed done and move on - I think we will find.
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
The next months/couple of years presents an amazing opportunity to a new Thatcher/Disraeli to come from nowhere to revive conservatism if it isn't to be Badenoch; almost no household names are still around.
It may take longer, and the person is even now polishing their interviewing skills for PPE at Brasenose/Balliol.
Spare us anymore from that factory of fools.
The most interesting college to watch is Pembroke, where Buttigieg went. By Wed morning, after the shock of tonight's landslide victory, he'll probably be front runner in the betting for Secretary of state
In terms of national polling Harris has leads of between 1 and 4 points from all those released in the last few days barring the one Atlas Intel poll which has serious question marks over it .
I think the TIPP will do a final release later this morning but that’s another with a clear Trump agenda .
No, Hart and ActiVote put Trump ahead (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) - never heard of either of them, though. The more important issue, though, is whether the electoral college produces a different result. I've seen it said that Harris needs to be +3 to be safe, but recent state polling suggests that it's unclear. I think she should be clear favo(u)rite at this point, though not a guaranteed winner.
The BIG question is is the improvement in the GOP early vote cannibalisation or expansion. The fact the early vote has gone more female than 2020 points to cannibalisation imv.
But we shall see !
Haley Democrats voting early - get the deed done and move on - I think we will find.
I think the risk to Finland and the Baltics is higher with the democrats. If there is no strategic solution in Ukraine you are effectively supporting an endless war of attrition, with limited political will on the part of the US to back. This to my mind is an extremely dangerous outcome. The Biden administration has embarked on a project in Ukraine it has proven repeatedly it doesn't have the motivation to complete, despite it having the resources to do so. How many people have died? 1 million? For what purpose? A war of attrition in the hope of the Russian state collapsing? This strategy has failed. Russia is not collapsing, it is getting stronger, the west is getting weaker. But the strategy in Ukraine never changes, it is an afterthought in the back of the mind of an exhausted empire, an afghanistan like situation.
Disruption to the strategy under Trump comes with very many risks, including the risk that Ukraine would just be abandoned. But I put the risk of that as being low given the evident self interest on the part of the US of maintaining support from its European allies. There are many possible outcomes, including the possibility that the war could actually be escalated to try and create the conditions for a lasting solution, at least insofar as Ukraine is concerned.
So what your saying is: Boris Johnson bouncing the West into a war it wasn't prepared to actually win has dangerously weakened NATO, and we'd have been better off letting Russia win their 3-day war while strengthening NATO???
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
Final TIPP poll in which they change their main headline to show the multi candidate one when they’ve on the previous 22 showed the head to head as the main headline !
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
Tantrums? I think that is unfair. There are lots of pensioners who quite legitimately complain that they are not that far over the limit and will lose the WFA as well as facing higher bills. So it's not £200, it might be £400, £500 or even more that they need to save or find.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
The BIG question is is the improvement in the GOP early vote cannibalisation or expansion. The fact the early vote has gone more female than 2020 points to cannibalisation imv.
But we shall see !
Haley Democrats voting early - get the deed done and move on - I think we will find.
Given how painful voting on the day seems to be in the US I can understand why people will have tried to vote early.
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
I think the black vote is definitely not where the Democrats would like it to be generally. But the female vote certainly isn't where the Trump campaign wants it to be either...
Quite an interesting comment from Farage that Harris should pardon Trump, if she wins, so as to create national unity.
Suggests the Trump team have given some thought to what happens if he loses. The deal would he be, he goes quietly and tells his supporters not to cause any trouble in exchange for a pardon (presumably from Biden so Harris isn't sullied by it)
No matter what the result, there’s a desparate need to turn down the temperature of US politics.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
It certainly isn't being accepted if the twitter posts I have seen are anything to go by, certainly plenty of students crying betrayal and going Green
Though the government also announced higher maintenance loans to ease the blow
What's the view of HYUFD - whom I rate highly - on the proportion of young people who'll actually vote, given that the next (May) election is in term time?
Quite an interesting comment from Farage that Harris should pardon Trump, if she wins, so as to create national unity.
Suggests the Trump team have given some thought to what happens if he loses. The deal would he be, he goes quietly and tells his supporters not to cause any trouble in exchange for a pardon (presumably from Biden so Harris isn't sullied by it)
No matter what the result, there’s a desparate need to turn down the temperature of US politics.
I think the risk to Finland and the Baltics is higher with the democrats. If there is no strategic solution in Ukraine you are effectively supporting an endless war of attrition, with limited political will on the part of the US to back. This to my mind is an extremely dangerous outcome. The Biden administration has embarked on a project in Ukraine it has proven repeatedly it doesn't have the motivation to complete, despite it having the resources to do so. How many people have died? 1 million? For what purpose? A war of attrition in the hope of the Russian state collapsing? This strategy has failed. Russia is not collapsing, it is getting stronger, the west is getting weaker. But the strategy in Ukraine never changes, it is an afterthought in the back of the mind of an exhausted empire, an afghanistan like situation.
Disruption to the strategy under Trump comes with very many risks, including the risk that Ukraine would just be abandoned. But I put the risk of that as being low given the evident self interest on the part of the US of maintaining support from its European allies. There are many possible outcomes, including the possibility that the war could actually be escalated to try and create the conditions for a lasting solution, at least insofar as Ukraine is concerned.
So what your saying is: Boris Johnson bouncing the West into a war it wasn't prepared to actually win has dangerously weakened NATO, and we'd have been better off letting Russia win their 3-day war while strengthening NATO???
I think the risk to Finland and the Baltics is higher with the democrats. If there is no strategic solution in Ukraine you are effectively supporting an endless war of attrition, with limited political will on the part of the US to back. This to my mind is an extremely dangerous outcome. The Biden administration has embarked on a project in Ukraine it has proven repeatedly it doesn't have the motivation to complete, despite it having the resources to do so. How many people have died? 1 million? For what purpose? A war of attrition in the hope of the Russian state collapsing? This strategy has failed. Russia is not collapsing, it is getting stronger, the west is getting weaker. But the strategy in Ukraine never changes, it is an afterthought in the back of the mind of an exhausted empire, an afghanistan like situation.
Disruption to the strategy under Trump comes with very many risks, including the risk that Ukraine would just be abandoned. But I put the risk of that as being low given the evident self interest on the part of the US of maintaining support from its European allies. There are many possible outcomes, including the possibility that the war could actually be escalated to try and create the conditions for a lasting solution, at least insofar as Ukraine is concerned.
So what your saying is: Boris Johnson bouncing the West into a war it wasn't prepared to actually win has dangerously weakened NATO, and we'd have been better off letting Russia win their 3-day war while strengthening NATO???
I think the risk to Finland and the Baltics is higher with the democrats. If there is no strategic solution in Ukraine you are effectively supporting an endless war of attrition, with limited political will on the part of the US to back. This to my mind is an extremely dangerous outcome. The Biden administration has embarked on a project in Ukraine it has proven repeatedly it doesn't have the motivation to complete, despite it having the resources to do so. How many people have died? 1 million? For what purpose? A war of attrition in the hope of the Russian state collapsing? This strategy has failed. Russia is not collapsing, it is getting stronger, the west is getting weaker. But the strategy in Ukraine never changes, it is an afterthought in the back of the mind of an exhausted empire, an afghanistan like situation.
Disruption to the strategy under Trump comes with very many risks, including the risk that Ukraine would just be abandoned. But I put the risk of that as being low given the evident self interest on the part of the US of maintaining support from its European allies. There are many possible outcomes, including the possibility that the war could actually be escalated to try and create the conditions for a lasting solution, at least insofar as Ukraine is concerned.
So what your saying is: Boris Johnson bouncing the West into a war it wasn't prepared to actually win has dangerously weakened NATO, and we'd have been better off letting Russia win their 3-day war while strengthening NATO???
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
Tantrums? I think that is unfair. There are lots of pensioners who quite legitimately complain that they are not that far over the limit and will lose the WFA as well as facing higher bills. So it's not £200, it might be £400, £500 or even more that they need to save or find.
Far more working age people have such struggles than pensioners, both as a proportion and in absolute numbers. The "pensioner lobby" rarely exhibit much awareness of or concern for this.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
Re the US election, naturally enough I think Trump will win but thoughts.
Firstly, the clues are in plain sight. You only have to look at how Americans view the country, the Administration and the main concerns (economy / inflation, immigration etc) to see Trump will win. Especially when a lot of Americans view his Administration positively.
Then look at what the early voting data. Ralston (who, BTW, I have a lot of sympathy for) has said the R lead in NV is unprecedented in recent times. Bitzer has said the same for NC. Rurals are showing up but not in urban areas vs 4 years ago. Black voters are not coming out as they need to for the Democrats. Republicans are ahead by nearly 200K in Arizona, by over 800K in Florida. Sure, in states like PA, the Democrats are ahead but their advantage is far less than in 2020.
Then there is the mood music. @williamglenn was pillorised for reposting a tweet ( https://x.com/vickiefornyc/status/1853511569851982213) re a Democrat insider saying the election is lost but the same theme has played out several times in Politico and The Hill over the past 10 days. There are no similar articles on Trump.
Re the three great hopes of the Democrats - women, young voters and Haley Republicans - think again.
One of the most hilarious things has been an almost uniformly audience of men opining women only care about abortion. It is important but, in my conversations, two women 'specific' issues play well for Republicans - the "men in women's sports / locker rooms" argument and illegal immigrants committing crimes against women. Take a look at the New Yorker article on the Laken Riley murder and it is clear it will be a major factor in Georgia.
Re young voters, let's see but I suspect the pandemic has changed many young voters' perceptions about how they see the world and - for young male voters at least - that may not be positive for the Democrats. Joe Rogan endorsing Trump is a major plus but Trump's outreach efforts have targeted young men specifically.
Finally re Haley Republicans, they are not going to vote for Harris and Walz. To many Republicans, they stand for everything they detest. Harris' response on Proposition 36 in CA only reinforces what they thought. Look at the comments here about AZ and the McCain / Haley Republicans (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/arizona-presidential-election-harris-trump.html) - switchover will be minimal.
So where do I think it will go? Essentially a repeat of 2016 - Trump to essentially win all the states he did plus also NV. I think he will get close in Virginia (couldn't resist that for Anabob) and maybe win NH and NM. I think the Senate will be something like 54-46. The House is a bit more uncertain.
PS look out for NY - it won't go Trump but Hochul only beat Zeldin 54-46 in 2022
I hope that's wrong, but it's an entirely sound analysis.
Nothing sound about @WilliamGlenn's repostings they're clearly evidence-free partisan posts and you'd be a fool to bet based on them. The analyses of early-voting stats that others have posted do at least have some substance to them, we'll know who was right sometime tomorrow hopefully.
I think the risk to Finland and the Baltics is higher with the democrats. If there is no strategic solution in Ukraine you are effectively supporting an endless war of attrition, with limited political will on the part of the US to back. This to my mind is an extremely dangerous outcome. The Biden administration has embarked on a project in Ukraine it has proven repeatedly it doesn't have the motivation to complete, despite it having the resources to do so. How many people have died? 1 million? For what purpose? A war of attrition in the hope of the Russian state collapsing? This strategy has failed. Russia is not collapsing, it is getting stronger, the west is getting weaker. But the strategy in Ukraine never changes, it is an afterthought in the back of the mind of an exhausted empire, an afghanistan like situation.
Disruption to the strategy under Trump comes with very many risks, including the risk that Ukraine would just be abandoned. But I put the risk of that as being low given the evident self interest on the part of the US of maintaining support from its European allies. There are many possible outcomes, including the possibility that the war could actually be escalated to try and create the conditions for a lasting solution, at least insofar as Ukraine is concerned.
So what your saying is: Boris Johnson bouncing the West into a war it wasn't prepared to actually win has dangerously weakened NATO, and we'd have been better off letting Russia win their 3-day war while strengthening NATO???
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
If I was allowed to discuss this I think I could blow your mind with what I’ve discovered. But I’m not and so I can’t
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
£285 for each of 3 years - a total of £855 which will be needed to be paid back over decades, if ever.
Versus a minimum of £200 a year over 10, 15 or 20 years which has to be found immediately each year rather than being deferred perhaps indefinitely.
Edit - I actually agree with withdrawing the WFA in principle although I disagree with the way in which who should still get it is assessed. But the point is that the potential finacial impact of the two decisions are very different.
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
I think the black vote is definitely not where the Democrats would like it to be generally. But the female vote certainly isn't where the Trump campaign wants it to be either...
That's not the point. Undersampling a group which skews around 70/30 is almost certainly going to skew the poll.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
It’s a kind of mental laziness. “It does all this typing for me - why should I be responsible for making sure it is right?”
The junior we are having an issue with at work seems to have trouble with the idea that he is responsible for the code he commits - even if typed by an “AI”.
If Trump pulled out of NATO and withdrew the nuclear umbrella the EU (probably along with the UK) would develop an independent nuclear deterrent very quickly - using French tech I imagine
It's a lot bleaker than that. It would likely spur an increase in warhead numbers in France and the UK (which is already happening in our case). As well as prompt the question about a Euro-bomb, or other European countries pursuing the bomb independently. It's further afield that the real problems would arrise. Why would South Korea trust the US nuclear umbrella if Trump removes it from NATO? Likewise why would Japan? There are lots of countries in parts of the world that are less stable that might think "we need the bomb." And when one country makes that choice others will likely follow. The whole NNPT, imperfect as it is, would likely come to and end. In 10-20 years time there might be dozens of nuclear armed states.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
Good morning one and all. Mr MM I often disagree with your political views but I have a high regard for your assessment of how elections will go. I sincerely hope you are right this time.
What if the universe has run out of entropy or something and all the things that are supposed to be one random thing or another are just coming out at 50/50.
Quite an interesting comment from Farage that Harris should pardon Trump, if she wins, so as to create national unity.
Suggests the Trump team have given some thought to what happens if he loses. The deal would he be, he goes quietly and tells his supporters not to cause any trouble in exchange for a pardon (presumably from Biden so Harris isn't sullied by it)
She can't can she? His was a State crime, not a Federal one.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
What seems to be happening is that, due to skewed response groups (see the end of landlines etc) many polls are applying huge corrections.
Ariz D 4.3, R 1.29 Geor D 2.78, R 1.55 Mich D 1.53, R 2.84 Nev D 2.3, R 1.75 NCar D 2.88, R 1.52 Penn D 2.36, R 1.73 Wisc D 1.82, R 2.18
*If* the current favourite won each state 251 Dem 287 Rep would be the EV outcome.
Penn going the other way would make 270 Dem, 268 Rep.
I don't think those odds are massively wrong wrt each other tbh, all generally a bit too pro Trump - the only one I can see a bit short for Harris is Michigan. I mean I think she'll win there but not sure it's 1.53 for her. Similarly Trump looks a touch short in Arizona. Again I can't see much value outside the general odds though.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
£285 for each of 3 years - a total of £855 which will be needed to be paid back over decades, if ever.
Versus a minimum of £200 a year over 10, 15 or 20 years which has to be found immediately each year rather than being deferred perhaps indefinitely.
Only 1 year - next year the state pension increase more than covers the £200 lost thanks to the changes in average earnings...
If average earnings wasn't included the pension would have increased by 2.5% so your typical pensioner is going to be £500 better off than they otherwise would have been.
I can't make sense of the Tory shadow cabinet except in terms of party management. Kemi shoring up her position as leader.
120 MPs - many of whom don't want to be in the Shadow Cabinet or don't want the job offered. Next apply a filter for some experience as a minister / not completely insane and you don't have that many options.
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
I think the black vote is definitely not where the Democrats would like it to be generally. But the female vote certainly isn't where the Trump campaign wants it to be either...
There are MAGA types who want to rescind the 19th Amendment which gives insight as to where they’d like the female vote to be…
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
It’s a kind of mental laziness. “It does all this typing for me - why should I be responsible for making sure it is right?”
The junior we are having an issue with at work seems to have trouble with the idea that he is responsible for the code he commits - even if typed by an “AI”.
“But it’s quicker!!”
Ah we are going back to the bad old days of software engineering where we measure productivity in KLOC, and worry a lot less about correctness, bugs, or utility. Everyone can be a superprogrammer in our new AI accelerated future, but nothing will bloody work.
I'm placing some very small bets on landslide victories for both Trump and Harris. No reason, just feels like value.
I think very high ECV numbers are more difficult for Trump to achieve. Tbh that's what my New Mexico bet is about. If he's outperforming in the sunbelt it could go in a landslide whereas I think Minnesota (And Virginia) probably don't.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
PB is literally unaware of the existence of the best models. This is laughable
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
Tantrums? I think that is unfair. There are lots of pensioners who quite legitimately complain that they are not that far over the limit and will lose the WFA as well as facing higher bills. So it's not £200, it might be £400, £500 or even more that they need to save or find.
They're not facing higher bills though.
The Jan-Mar 2025 price cap is predicted to be £1,697 whereas it was £1,928 in Jan-Mar 2024.
Likewise the energy price was significantly lower throughout 2024 than it was in 2023:
Ariz D 4.3, R 1.29 Geor D 2.78, R 1.55 Mich D 1.53, R 2.84 Nev D 2.3, R 1.75 NCar D 2.88, R 1.52 Penn D 2.36, R 1.73 Wisc D 1.82, R 2.18
*If* the current favourite won each state 251 Dem 287 Rep would be the EV outcome.
Penn going the other way would make 270 Dem, 268 Rep.
I don't think those odds are massively wrong wrt each other tbh, all generally a bit too pro Trump - the only one I can see a bit short for Harris is Michigan. I mean I think she'll win there but not sure it's 1.53 for her. Similarly Trump looks a touch short in Arizona. Again I can't see much value outside the general odds though.
I think she has a better chance than 1.82 in Wisconsin.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
To be fair its a bit unfair 'arguing' the topic of AI with someone who is banned from responding.
My analysis of the election has changed. If I had a vote, it would be for Trump. The defining issue for me is Ukraine. I don't think that the democrats can solve this and I think they will end up gradually losing the war in Ukraine, as the conflict continues on its current trajectory with no apparent strategic direction. This could cause the rapid collapse of more countries, and significant consequential damage. My gut feeling is that Trump would be more likely to find a strategic solution to the issue of conflict with Russia. This puts me at odds with almost everyone, including everyone I know in Finland, but it is my assessment of the situation. There is too much familiarity bias and continuity bias which fuels the assumption that Harris would preserve NATO and the European security arrangement. With Trump there is the possibility of an updated solution to the security question, there is a risk that this fails, but the current direction of travel seems to lead to failure anyway. I have this view even accepting that Trump is a significant threat to democracy itself. But I was influenced a lot by Niall Ferguson's recent comments.
No there isn’t - Trump will simply cut off the supply of arms to the Ukraine and Russia will take over. Then wait a few years to rebuild their supplies before moving on to the next part of “mother Russia” that was stolen from Moscow
Which may include Finland.
More the Baltics. Plus a nice big land corridor to Kaliningrad.
Then Poland and East Germany, why stop there? Next stop Paris.
Putin is not going to invade Poland, Germany and France. For a start he knows that will trigger nuclear war and destroy Russia forever
You’re probably joking but it’s still good to keep Putin in perspective
Would it though? Against France maybe as it has its own independent nuclear weapons. The others don't though and if Trump pulled out of NATO would he even send troops to defend them if Putin invaded let alone US nukes?
He'll go for the Baltics. Small, formerly part of USSR itself, and with largeish Russian minorities. NATO members, but he'll take risk, as he gains enhanced access to Baltic.
Finland and Sweden give Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania a lot more strategic depth, plus the JEF troops including the largest UK overseas deployment which is in Estonia. If Putin did invade rather than subvert, he could lose even without any nuclear escalation. Its a hell of a risk to attack a NATO state directly. Russia is in a terrible mess, and as 10,000 North Koreans are fed into the mincing machine, one wonders if any further escalation might not bring about the collapse of Putin´s regime.
In Tallinn, the general view is that unless stabbed in the back by -say- Trump, we can hold out, and a Finnish/Swedish/Norwegian counter attack would leave St Petersburg and Murmansk incredibly vulnerable, while the Poles can handle Kaliningrad and keep the Suwalki gap open. We do not think the Russians can risk it.
By the way, the Baltics were Illegally occupied by the USSR in 1940, were never legitimately part of the Imperium and were never recognised as Soviet by the US, UK and several other states.
The Russian speaking minority in Estonia and Latvia are increasingly ANTI Putin, to the point that they are joining the Estonian army in order to defend against any Putinist incursion. They already saw what happened to the Russian speakers in Ukraine.
The Europe may have to get over its dislike of land mines and learn from the South Koreans. Otherwise some of these frontiers are just too large.
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
I think the black vote is definitely not where the Democrats would like it to be generally. But the female vote certainly isn't where the Trump campaign wants it to be either...
There are MAGA types who want to rescind the 19th Amendment which gives insight as to where they’d like the female vote to be…
There are MAGA types who'd be comfortable abolishing voting altogether.
Ariz D 4.3, R 1.29 Geor D 2.78, R 1.55 Mich D 1.53, R 2.84 Nev D 2.3, R 1.75 NCar D 2.88, R 1.52 Penn D 2.36, R 1.73 Wisc D 1.82, R 2.18
*If* the current favourite won each state 251 Dem 287 Rep would be the EV outcome.
Penn going the other way would make 270 Dem, 268 Rep.
I don't think those odds are massively wrong wrt each other tbh, all generally a bit too pro Trump - the only one I can see a bit short for Harris is Michigan. I mean I think she'll win there but not sure it's 1.53 for her. Similarly Trump looks a touch short in Arizona. Again I can't see much value outside the general odds though.
I think she has a better chance than 1.82 in Wisconsin.
You might be right but Wisconsin polling has been absolutely terrible the last few cycles - Biden was soooo far ahead for it to be a squeaker last time round !
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
To be fair its a bit unfair 'arguing' the topic of AI with someone who is banned from responding.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
Tantrums? I think that is unfair. There are lots of pensioners who quite legitimately complain that they are not that far over the limit and will lose the WFA as well as facing higher bills. So it's not £200, it might be £400, £500 or even more that they need to save or find.
They're not facing higher bills though.
The Jan-Mar 2025 price cap is predicted to be £1,697 whereas it was £1,928 in Jan-Mar 2024.
Likewise the energy price was significantly lower throughout 2024 than it was in 2023:
This fabricated link between energy bills and WFP winds me up. The kind of pensioner who is literally putting coins into a meter and can barely make the end of the month will almost certainly be eligible for pension credit, WFP and a host of other support measures.
The State Pension has increased faster than energy costs and CPI in general (and will continue to do so), more than making up for WFP for other pensioners.
I’ve seen nothing in the stuff overnight that has changed my mind that this will be a Harris win, with Trump taking NV and AZ and Harris the rest.
Trump should take Nevada, it has the highest unemployment rate in the US and probably Georgia which has above average inflation.
Harris will be helped in the blue wall though by the fact inflation in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is below the US average and unemployment in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is also below the US average too
Interesting post. I infer from that that you are forecasting a narrow Harris win? I rate you a lot as a tipster so would be keen to know.
Yes, I bet last night on Harris to win the EC but Trump to win the popular vote.
As I posted earlier the bluewall states doing better economically than the US average may save her but Trump for the same reason has a real chance of winning the popular vote with cost of living an issue in most of the US
If Harris won Nevada, as Ralston predicts, then she can afford to lose Penn as long as she gains either Georgia or N Carolina.
Bear in mind that Biden won 306 ECVs and Trump still dragged the process out into January, with violence on the streets. Harris does only need 270 ECVs to win but if she does land in the 270s, it'll get very ugly before it gets better - assuming that Trump doesn't manage to persuade Congress and/or the courts to fiddle the result for him (which is unlikely but certainly not impossible).
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
PB is literally unaware of the existence of the best models. This is laughable
I might be a little out of date but Claudia Schiffer for me.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
To be fair its a bit unfair 'arguing' the topic of AI with someone who is banned from responding.
He's been doing plenty of 'responding' on this thread.
But at least it's about AI, and not his view on white supremacism...
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
Tantrums? I think that is unfair. There are lots of pensioners who quite legitimately complain that they are not that far over the limit and will lose the WFA as well as facing higher bills. So it's not £200, it might be £400, £500 or even more that they need to save or find.
They're not facing higher bills though.
The Jan-Mar 2025 price cap is predicted to be £1,697 whereas it was £1,928 in Jan-Mar 2024.
Likewise the energy price was significantly lower throughout 2024 than it was in 2023:
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
He was the Minister of State for Crime, Policing and Fire before the election - so someone who knows the brief.
and I think once you go beyond the 6 candidates who stood for the leadership, Rishi and Hunt everyone else is going to be in the "who are they" department. The Tories have 120 MPs and many of the ones people know the name of lost their seats..
The big advantage this shadow cabinet has is that it mostly passes the "we told you to sling your hooks" test. Even someone like Mel Stride is a relatively fresh face to the electorate.
The bad news is that it does look awfully light on experience. How many of the bigger names turned offers down, if any? (Tom T isn't on the list, for example). It might well be the best shad cab Badenoch can assemble from the people available, but it doesn't exactly inspire. And if there are some big beasts to return in by-elections (Mordaunt, say), where do they slot in?
The next months/couple of years presents an amazing opportunity to a new Thatcher/Disraeli to come from nowhere to revive conservatism if it isn't to be Badenoch; almost no household names are still around.
It may take longer, and the person is even now polishing their interviewing skills for PPE at Brasenose/Balliol.
It is more likely the next Conservative Cabinet Ministers will be in a coalition government with Farage and Reform than leading a Tory majority government unless they can find a leader who can really squeeze Reform back in their box. Farage is making inroads and gains with white working class Leavers who voted for Boris and Labour in July but Badenoch is at most treading water and while keeping 2024 Tory voters not gaining either Reform voters or LD or Labour voters.
Having said that a Labour minority government reliant on LD confidence and supply is also more likely at the moment than another Labour majority if Labour keep plumbing the depths of unpopularity
Nigel Huddleston (I hadn't heard of him but wet Reform Group remainer) as Party Chairman doesn't bode awfully well for doing much about the CCHQ toxic swamp.
That's what Tories get writing a blank cheque to someone just because they once got into it on Twitter with an idiot luvvie.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
£285 for each of 3 years - a total of £855 which will be needed to be paid back over decades, if ever.
Versus a minimum of £200 a year over 10, 15 or 20 years which has to be found immediately each year rather than being deferred perhaps indefinitely.
Edit - I actually agree with withdrawing the WFA in principle although I disagree with the way in which who should still get it is assessed. But the point is that the potential finacial impact of the two decisions are very different.
It wouldn't surprise me if there's more fuss over the Fee increases, (which as you say, is small, and doesn't even affect most students ultimate repayments), and the loan changes the Tories made last year, which could easily add tens of thousands onto a typical students repayments.
The latter change didn't even put more money into universities.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
£285 for each of 3 years - a total of £855 which will be needed to be paid back over decades, if ever.
Versus a minimum of £200 a year over 10, 15 or 20 years which has to be found immediately each year rather than being deferred perhaps indefinitely.
Edit - I actually agree with withdrawing the WFA in principle although I disagree with the way in which who should still get it is assessed. But the point is that the potential finacial impact of the two decisions are very different.
But its not just the present oldies who will lose the WFA, its all the future oldies as well.
The present oldies may have already had 20+ more years of WFA than I'm ever going to get.
I have just noticed that Google Satellite images are not pure images. They are mucked about with.
Our village has had a number of new developments. To build one of them several houses were demolished for access to the plot and a road built through. On the image the development is there but so are the houses that shouldn't be and the road into the estate just fades away as it enters a non existent garden and house that are on the image.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
To be fair its a bit unfair 'arguing' the topic of AI with someone who is banned from responding.
He's been doing plenty of 'responding' on this thread.
But at least it's about AI, and not his view on white supremacism...
Well no. He has clearly been abiding by the rules onn discussing the details of AI unless you are claiming there should be some sort of super-injunction banning him from mentioning the fact he is banned.
I have just noticed that Google Satellite images are not pure images. They are mucked about with.
Our village has had a number of new developments. To build one of them several houses were demolished for access to the plot and a road built through. On the image the development is there but so are the houses that shouldn't be and the road into the estate just fades away as it enters a non existent garden and house that are on the image.
Various Chinese military installations are cropped ..
I have just noticed that Google Satellite images are not pure images. They are mucked about with.
Our village has had a number of new developments. To build one of them several houses were demolished for access to the plot and a road built through. On the image the development is there but so are the houses that shouldn't be and the road into the estate just fades away as it enters a non existent garden and house that are on the image.
Not all of it is updated at the same time, so you get discrepancies that are blended.
A revealing contrast between the way the £285 increase in university tuition fees is being accepted to the tantrums the oldies have had over losing their £200 WFA.
£285 for each of 3 years - a total of £855 which will be needed to be paid back over decades, if ever.
Versus a minimum of £200 a year over 10, 15 or 20 years which has to be found immediately each year rather than being deferred perhaps indefinitely.
Edit - I actually agree with withdrawing the WFA in principle although I disagree with the way in which who should still get it is assessed. But the point is that the potential finacial impact of the two decisions are very different.
But its not just the present oldies who will lose the WFA, its all the future oldies as well.
The present oldies may have already had 20+ more years of WFA than I'm ever going to get.
The WFA is more than covered by the VERY generous pension increase next year which was 8.5% thanks to the triple lock rather than the 2.6% it would otherwise have been.
Th WFA was £200 that extra 5.9% on the pension is worth over £600...
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
To be fair its a bit unfair 'arguing' the topic of AI with someone who is banned from responding.
He's been doing plenty of 'responding' on this thread.
But at least it's about AI, and not his view on white supremacism...
Well no. He has clearly been abiding by the rules onn discussing the details of AI unless you are claiming there should be some sort of super-injunction banning him from mentioning the fact he is banned.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
None of them are reliable - for the simple reason thar their source material is the corpus of the internet which is itself strewn with errors, satire and fake news. That is not to say that they cannot be a fun and useful tool. But one would be foolish to trust them without verification.
You can't talk to Leon about this - it's beyond his ken.
To be fair its a bit unfair 'arguing' the topic of AI with someone who is banned from responding.
He's been doing plenty of 'responding' on this thread.
But at least it's about AI, and not his view on white supremacism...
Comments
Certainly if Trump won the rest of NATO would have to rapidly increase defence spending and military production to provide more aid to Ukraine and its neighbours if needed
Suggests the Trump team have given some thought to what happens if he loses. The deal would he be, he goes quietly and tells his supporters not to cause any trouble in exchange for a pardon (presumably from Biden so Harris isn't sullied by it)
The French long wanted the U.K./US warhead designs. Apparently they never quite got there with spheroid secondaries.
And while the story isn't wrong - the issue is more one that employers are willing to use immigrants rather than pay their existing workers a decent wage.
Which put like that is also the story in the UK..
It may take longer, and the person is even now polishing their interviewing skills for PPE at Brasenose/Balliol.
Trump 48.6
Harris 48.3
H2H
Harris 48.4
Trump 48.3
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
But we shall see !
That 750,000 still to vote would have to split better than 455k-295k Republican for Trump to win. Nowhere - but nowhere - is he getting splits above 60:40 in national polling. He can't get above 48%.
It's possible that turnout goes through the roof. But then ask yourself which is more likely - a wave of late-breaking Trump voters coming to the polls - or a wave of late-breaking Harris supporters boosting turnout? The polling is saying the late breakers are going decisively to Harris. I know which I think far more likely...
me: "how many rs are there in the word raspberry?"
chatGPT: "The word "raspberry" contains two "r"s."
LOL - Atlas's last Pennsylvania poll simply eliminated half the state's black population from its likely voter screen.
https://x.com/AstorAaron/status/1853606079415894308
Of course, depending on their filters, some of that might be coincidence rather than deliberate. But 5% versus 10%, for a group which skews greatly Democratic, isn't good - and they also under sample the percentage of Hispanic voters.
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
Only a fool uses ChatGPT by choice - unless you really love AVM (which is fun, TBF)
Ariz D 4.3, R 1.29
Geor D 2.78, R 1.55
Mich D 1.53, R 2.84
Nev D 2.3, R 1.75
NCar D 2.88, R 1.52
Penn D 2.36, R 1.73
Wisc D 1.82, R 2.18
*If* the current favourite won each state 251 Dem 287 Rep would be the EV outcome.
Penn going the other way would make 270 Dem, 268 Rep.
But any result is very much going to depend on the dataset the LLM used in the first place..
Versus a minimum of £200 a year over 10, 15 or 20 years which has to be found immediately each year rather than being deferred perhaps indefinitely.
Edit - I actually agree with withdrawing the WFA in principle although I disagree with the way in which who should still get it is assessed. But the point is that the potential finacial impact of the two decisions are very different.
Undersampling a group which skews around 70/30 is almost certainly going to skew the poll.
The junior we are having an issue with at work seems to have trouble with the idea that he is responsible for the code he commits - even if typed by an “AI”.
“But it’s quicker!!”
Who is missing from the shadow cabinet who is a) a current MP, b) willing to serve and c) notably better?
When you add in biased people working in polling…
If average earnings wasn't included the pension would have increased by 2.5% so your typical pensioner is going to be £500 better off than they otherwise would have been.
The Jan-Mar 2025 price cap is predicted to be £1,697 whereas it was £1,928 in Jan-Mar 2024.
Likewise the energy price was significantly lower throughout 2024 than it was in 2023:
https://www.current-news.co.uk/cornwall-insight-predicts-january-price-cap-fall/
https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/
If Harris wins WI and MI then NV and either of those does it.
The State Pension has increased faster than energy costs and CPI in general (and will continue to do so), more than making up for WFP for other pensioners.
As I posted earlier the bluewall states doing better economically than the US average may save her but Trump for the same reason has a real chance of winning the popular vote with cost of living an issue in most of the US
But at least it's about AI, and not his view on white supremacism...
Having said that a Labour minority government reliant on LD confidence and supply is also more likely at the moment than another Labour majority if Labour keep plumbing the depths of unpopularity
Nigel Huddleston (I hadn't heard of him but wet Reform Group remainer) as Party Chairman doesn't bode awfully well for doing much about the CCHQ toxic swamp.
That's what Tories get writing a blank cheque to someone just because they once got into it on Twitter with an idiot luvvie.
The latter change didn't even put more money into universities.
The present oldies may have already had 20+ more years of WFA than I'm ever going to get.
Our village has had a number of new developments. To build one of them several houses were demolished for access to the plot and a road built through. On the image the development is there but so are the houses that shouldn't be and the road into the estate just fades away as it enters a non existent garden and house that are on the image.
Th WFA was £200 that extra 5.9% on the pension is worth over £600...
“Sone of my best friends are AIs. BUT…”