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What Americans are expecting the election result to be and when – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Taz said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Spotify has a few.

    Duran Duran and Election day and who was that guy who sang "i want to be elected" ? Ozzy Osborne ? That's another.
    Mr Bean did a 'I want to be elected'.

    I'm unsure if it should be a source of shame or pride, but I've got a copy somewhere.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLrwV_gIq3U
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @DataRepublican
    And the first few votes are live on the website. Updates every 5 minutes. Don't take any counts seriously for at least half an hour.

    https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1853770339240612007
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Spotify has a few.

    Duran Duran and Election day and who was that guy who sang "i want to be elected" ? Ozzy Osborne ? That's another.
    Duran Duran could also be Meet El Presidente
    I'll look it up on Spotify. I like Duran Duran, seen them live a few times, but that one has completely passed me by.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Florida live data up and running

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    edited November 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    What was twitter selling ? Technically it's been absolutely fine since he took over.
    Advertising. Twitter was selling a safe space for major brands to advertise to a reasonably well characterised audience. Musk trashed all of that by sacking all the moderation staff, leading to (e.g.) Disney ads being placed up against white supremacist bile. Unsurprisingly the major brands took fright & left en masse, leaving Twitter with the bottom of the barrel advertisers you now see on your feed & scratching about for subscriber income.

    Twitter lost a large chunk of it’s audience & income, all because Musk didn’t understand what he had bought & wasn’t interested in taking the time to learn. The technical side just about survived, but only because it had been very well engineered in the first place to deal with internal service failures. A more brittle system would have failed completely & perhaps never recovered.

    As it is, various Twitter systems still either don’t work or work only some of the time. It may well survive in it’s new form & it’s perfectly possible that Musk will turn it into some income generating powerhouse but that’s in the future: As it is now it’s merely a sad shadow of its former self.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    stjohn said:

    RCP average now +0.1 Harris. The polls have the race as a toss up. Evens the pair. The betting is almost 60:40 in Trump's favour. Harris almost 2.5 when the polls have her at 2.0. You could make 25% on your money if you backed Harris at 2.5 and were able to lay her back at 2.0. Will this prove to be the biggest Political Betting value opportunity ever? Huge liquidity available.

    +1
  • I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.

    This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.

    What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.

    Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.

    I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.

    The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
    It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
    The upside to the natural world from a falling population is overdone. What matters most in that respect is what technology we have, and how we use it. That's what we can change most quickly and will have the greatest impact.

    I get quite cross about people arguing against having children on an environmental basis.
    Well indeed. Environmentalism, to me, is all about creating and maintaining an environment that is best able to sustain human life. It is not about reducing the number of humans in order to leave the planet in some sort of pristine state.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,911
    Scott_xP said:

    My third man on the ground says

    I saw more Women

    Can you ask them whether they would say turnout is “brisk” or “steady”?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    maaarsh said:

    Florida live data up and running

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    It begins.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Confirmation (anecdote) from PA

    Yes more women
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 134

    I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.

    This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.

    What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.

    Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.

    I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.

    The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
    It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
    It really does depend on exactly *who* is having/raising the children. Or failing to have them.This is the uncomfortable truth.

    Our society has arguably been hyper-reproductive in the 'wrong' areas, and pretty barren amongst those whose offspring would, on balance, have the potential to make a more positive impact.

    I know this is a generalisation and I'd never argue for any forceful intervention of any kind, but it is the reality, however unpalatable.

    Genetics, background, culture, geography, money, time, intellect, consciousness, politics - all stuff that can make a difference.

    This is why it pisses me off when politicians say 'talent is evenly distributed but opportunity isn't '. What evidence is the first assertion based on? Has there been some big Trading Places-style experiment that we weren't told about.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,911

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/Vermeullarmine/status/1853763787133722639

    I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.

    The problem with 'fascism' is that it is relatively poorly-defined, as we've seen on previous discussions on here. It seems to be that people think they know it when they see it; but others disagree with those personal definitions and examples.

    I'm happy to call Putin a fascist, and think I can argue the point fairly well. But Trump? No, not yet. He and his ilk are happy to use some of the tactics fascists use: e.g. disagreement is treason; fear of difference; machismo and weaponry. Others are not much present: e.g. the cult of tradition.

    But Trump et al don't need to be fascist to do terrible things, and calling them 'fascists!' might well be counter-productive. They are bad on their own terms.
    I think it’s more that he and his ilk (including Farage but not Boris or Meloni) have parted ways with all aspects of the post war consensus and believe some things we all assumed were gone. We had all drunk the “end of history” koolaid and it doesn’t compute.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/Vermeullarmine/status/1853763787133722639

    I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.

    More Pound Shop Boulanger.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Ernest_Boulanger
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited November 5
    Billy Joel*, Allentown

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?539745-1/vp-harris-campaigns-allentown-pa&live
    (Worth a listen to Fat Joe's endorsement/introduction at the start.)

    (* In 2016, after his sarcastic dedication of "The Entertainer" to then-Republican candidate Donald Trump was taken as a serious endorsement, Joel told the New York Daily News in an email that he would be voting for Hillary Clinton.)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,771
    edited November 5
    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    I think that’s a very lazy characterisation, the US has had a large number of female elected officials including a female Speaker and VP, countless governors, Senators etc.
  • Andy_JS said:

    stjohn said:

    RCP average now +0.1 Harris. The polls have the race as a toss up. Evens the pair. The betting is almost 60:40 in Trump's favour. Harris almost 2.5 when the polls have her at 2.0. You could make 25% on your money if you backed Harris at 2.5 and were able to lay her back at 2.0. Will this prove to be the biggest Political Betting value opportunity ever? Huge liquidity available.

    +1
    It occurs to me than Trump Supporters are more likely to place bets on this election than Harris supporters? Apart from the people who bet to make money and have no political preference for either candidate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156

    On LLMs

    We have a problem with a junior developer, at the bank - who keeps trying to outsource his work to the various “AI”s he has subscribed to.

    Instead of using them as a code completion tool (which does work) he is trying to get them to do everything. Turns off his brain.

    He almost gets upset it’s pointed out that he is breaking confidentiality rules. Further, that the code often doesn’t work.

    The ability of LLMs to fluently generate gibberish is, as someone said, where the next Grenfell may well happen.

    We’ve already had fans of the Process State declaring that since a large chunk of the document mountains are computer generated, it’s all ok.

    Add in reading documents *by* LLM, and we have a bullshit feedback loop - generating bullshit from bullshit.

    Interesting post.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Jonathan said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Civil War Guns n Roses
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isCh4kCeNYU
    Let's Impeach the President - Neil Young
  • glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.
    Agreed!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Jonathan said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Civil War Guns n Roses
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isCh4kCeNYU
    Let's Impeach the President - Neil Young
    Mr President by DBMT, the band that was left when Dave Dee went off on his own.

    Not a bad track and the TOTP performance still exists as an orphan rather than being in a whole episode.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    Scott_xP said:

    Update from a different PA polling place

    Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

    So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,686
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea

    Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul

    These tiny things begin to grate

    Can't you just pop into a GS25 ?

    And who cares about Tabasco ?
    Dude. I care. I travel for a living
    isn't that what your concierge at your fancy hotel is for?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Scott_xP said:

    My third man on the ground says

    I saw more Women

    Men leave everything to the last minute.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,057
    It's interesting how the key demographic divide varies by country and election.

    In the UK we have had ages as the main division over recent years, for example. We've often see the right outperform as older people turn out.

    In the US the main division seems to be men versus women. Who will turn out in greater numbers?..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    maaarsh said:

    Florida live data up and running

    https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    He has calculated some sort of "Advantage" score based on relative turnout of Republican/Democrat registered voters compared to 2016 or 2020, and so puts Trump ahead by 18% in Pennsylvania, because being behind by 400k in early votes is a lot better than 2020.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,314

    Jonathan said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Civil War Guns n Roses
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isCh4kCeNYU
    Let's Impeach the President - Neil Young
    From Napoleon III to Napoleon XIV: "They're coming to take me away".
  • Scott_xP said:

    My third man on the ground says

    I saw more Women

    Men leave everything to the last minute.

    Scott_xP said:

    My third man on the ground says

    I saw more Women

    Men leave everything to the last minute.
    That sounds correct.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Jonathan said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Civil War Guns n Roses
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isCh4kCeNYU
    Let's Impeach the President - Neil Young
    The Room Where it Happens
    Lin-Manuel Miranda
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,911
    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.
    Let’s not pat ourselves too hard on the back, there are different pinch points. Khan wasn’t attacked for being Asian, but he was for being Muslim.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 38

    Scott_xP said:

    My third man on the ground says

    I saw more Women

    Men leave everything to the last minute.
    They are probably at work right now.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Update from a different PA polling place

    Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

    So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.
    It's not a problem to the people trying to reduce voting levels in urban areas. Long queues are the system working as intended.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    trukat said:

    Scott_xP said:

    My third man on the ground says

    I saw more Women

    Men leave everything to the last minute.
    They are probably at work right now.
    At least 3 of them are standing in line before they go to work
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Final call. I think Harris wins on greater female turnout.
    Don't have any evidence more than a hunch. Maybe wishcasting?
    Haven't bet on this as I'm aware I don't know.
    But you've got to make your choice.
    Billy Bragg "Which Side are you On?"
    Not confident there won't be trouble.
  • Ratters said:

    It's interesting how the key demographic divide varies by country and election.

    In the UK we have had ages as the main division over recent years, for example. We've often see the right outperform as older people turn out.

    In the US the main division seems to be men versus women. Who will turn out in greater numbers?..

    Women.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    edited November 5
    Leon said:

    The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea

    Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul

    These tiny things begin to grate

    I was there for a few days in Sep 2012. Seems like yesterday. Where's the time gone? We did the visiting the North Korean border tunnels trip. American soldiers everywhere in that area.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Update from a different PA polling place

    Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

    So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.
    It's not a problem to the people trying to reduce voting levels in urban areas. Long queues are the system working as intended.
    Yes. I think it's easy for PBers, who are generally office-based or retired, to not appreciate how precious a daytime hour is to shift workers, particularly if they have children. You might have to take time off work.

    And look at how early the polls close in some states.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    Super interesting video (first 20 mins)

    The Hidden Crisis in the UK Economy
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7po69QCHVs

    Which is backed up experience of this guy building a company

    From ROUGH School to $800 Million CEO?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbXmojTTzEk
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Cicero said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Donald where´s your troosers?
    Tears of a Clown, hopefully.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    edited November 5
    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.
    Outside the likes of the leftie race grifters and the far right, literally nobody mentioned Kwarteng or Sunak race or the sex of Truss. That was not the reason they failed electorally.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    edited November 5
    Spent the weekend cleaning the old bomb shelter in the garden, readying in case Trump wins.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    edited November 5
    Taz said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Spotify has a few.

    Duran Duran and Election day and who was that guy who sang "i want to be elected" ? Ozzy Osborne ? That's another.
    It was Simon Le Bon's side project Arcadia in 1985 with Election Day. (The other Duran Duran side project at the time was Power Station with Robert Palmer, whose biggest hit was Some Like It Hot).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W5aKwrsYIM

    Mr Bean recorded I Want To Be Elected in 1992.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLrwV_gIq3U
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,350
    Chris said:

    Cicero said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Donald where´s your troosers?
    Tears of a Clown, hopefully.
    REM - Orange Crush....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,596
    Scott_xP said:

    @DataRepublican
    And the first few votes are live on the website. Updates every 5 minutes. Don't take any counts seriously for at least half an hour.

    https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1853770339240612007

    Link to actual website (Penn):
    https://joeisdone.github.io/pennsylvania/
  • Spent the weekend cleaning the old bomb shelter in the garden, readying in case Trump wins.

    Do you have any more room there?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,057
    Ratters said:

    In totally-legitimate-political-betting news, there remains £2.5m looking to back Trump at 1.7 on Betfair. Just next to every other betting level where there is up to £0.05m ready to be staked.

    I think we may as well ignore betting odds as a guide to how well candidates are doing until polls close.

    The £2.5m firewall has moved into 1.65...

    My guess is Trump's odds shorten further over the course of today as someone tries to build a narrative around Trump winning on election day.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.
    Outside the likes of the leftie race grifters and the far right, literally nobody mentioned Kwarteng or Sunak race or the sex of Truss. That was not the reason they failed electorally.
    Does the necklace of TRUSS count ? Not that I know its significance.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185

    Chris said:

    Cicero said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Donald where´s your troosers?
    Tears of a Clown, hopefully.
    REM - Orange Crush....
    Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @johnmsides

    Happy Premature Analysis Based on Early Exit Polls Day to all who celebrate.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Update from a different PA polling place

    Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

    So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.
    Yes, but Uk elections will be max 3 things to vote for normally? I've never had to put an X in more than 4 boxes.

    Whereas in the US, there could be 20-40 different things to vote for.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    We have Florida election day vote breakdown by party affiliation now available
    👉 https://projects.votehub.com/pages/early-voting-tracker
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    It's a fiction he can sell to Red Wallers. Enough think that the public sector are all just layabouts. There are some here who regularly express that view. After its happened and their local services are almost entirely wiped out, then they'll realise their mistake.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    America may be about to become a very grim place. And those imagining that their lives would simply go on as before, untouched in any major way by the potential fear and chaos, are making a big mistake.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/opinion/trump-cheney-kennedy-kelly.html
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,178
    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

    It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    If Harris won Nevada, as Ralston predicts, then she can afford to lose Penn as long as she gains either Georgia or N Carolina.

    Bear in mind that Biden won 306 ECVs and Trump still dragged the process out into January, with violence on the streets. Harris does only need 270 ECVs to win but if she does land in the 270s, it'll get very ugly before it gets better - assuming that Trump doesn't manage to persuade Congress and/or the courts to fiddle the result for him (which is unlikely but certainly not impossible).
    Unless it is 268 each Congress has no power to intervene directly and in 2020 remember even most GOP Senators voted that Biden had won even if most GOP House Reps voted to challenge state results and say Trump had won.

    The courts cannot intervene either unless to stop the count but Trump would have to be ahead in that states count anyway at that point
    It's 269 for a tie. But leaving that aside:

    Congress has absolute discretion to count the votes, which also means validating the votes. It can throw out a state's votes if it considers those votes to be invalid - and it can use whatever argument it likes to come to such a determination. There is no obligation on Congress to produce a 538 total, or to 'find' votes in place of a set it doesn't like.

    The count in Congress has generally been entirely procedural but it isn't, necessarily: it's a functional part of the process and if there is dispute as to who the valid Electors are, or should be, or whether they have cast their votes correctly or not, Congress can choose not to count them.

    Now, I agree that it's unlikely that the GOP would have the votes to play such shenanigans and that Trump also actually lost the election. In reality, it'd take a Red Wave to give the Republicans the votes - and such a wave would almost certainly bring Trump victory via the normal route. Nonetheless, if he wants to play silly, it's an option.

    How the courts could intervene, and to do what, is pretty much unclear but US courts, and especially the Supreme Court, tend not to be shy about asserting their powers over pretty much everything else.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    KnightOut said:

    I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.

    This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.

    What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.

    Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.

    I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.

    The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
    It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
    It really does depend on exactly *who* is having/raising the children. Or failing to have them.This is the uncomfortable truth.

    Our society has arguably been hyper-reproductive in the 'wrong' areas, and pretty barren amongst those whose offspring would, on balance, have the potential to make a more positive impact.

    I know this is a generalisation and I'd never argue for any forceful intervention of any kind, but it is the reality, however unpalatable.

    Genetics, background, culture, geography, money, time, intellect, consciousness, politics - all stuff that can make a difference.

    This is why it pisses me off when politicians say 'talent is evenly distributed but opportunity isn't '. What evidence is the first assertion based on? Has there been some big Trading Places-style experiment that we weren't told about.
    Getting a ‘high status male’ vibe..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.

    It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/will-laken-rileys-murder-tip-georgia

    Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.

    Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
    But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.

    And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.

    "The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.

    Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.

    "The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."

    I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.

    So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.

    Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.

    ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.

    2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:

    Dem @ 55.5 = 1.252m female Democrat votes cast
    Rep @ 44.5 = 1.004m Republican votes cast

    1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:

    Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast
    Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast

    Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million
    Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million

    So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.

    Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes

    And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:

    Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:

    "More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."

    https://www.inquirer.com/news/early-voting-women-seniors-pennsylvania-20241101.html

    The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.

    A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.

    I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:

    KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.


    @MarqueeMark your enthusiasm is infectious but from a betting point of view I must confess I take all your posts with a very large pinch of salt!

    We need cold hard objectivity over the next 24 hours. Not to grasp the best bits of news we want to hear.
    My post is hard-nosed objectivity! Based on two data points: the very real actual polling numbers from the official Georgia website, showing how far ahead women voters are with 56% of all those entitled to vote having done so (so 100% objectivity); and the last ABC poll which showed how the female voters were breaking decisivley to Harris (with males beaking less solidly for Trump) - which you could argue with but it doesn't seem out of line with other pollsters you could choose.

    You really don't need other data points to go "bloody hell!"
    I hope you are not wishcasting like all our Trumpian friends, who claim not to be wishcasting.
    If you think so, attack the maths...
    No I am hoping you have this buttoned down.

    My heart says women will win it for Harris my head says (with lots of ramping from William Glenn) a similar win to 2016 for Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    FPT
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.

    @Steven_Swinford
    Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday

    Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines

    She must have leaked the news to someone in the first place.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    Do you speak to a lot of Reform voters?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Spent the weekend cleaning the old bomb shelter in the garden, readying in case Trump wins.

    Do you have any more room there?
    Has UK government got extra Visa staff on standby to process the exodus?

    And it is gonna be well busy at the Canada crossings in a day or two.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,781

    maaarsh said:

    https://x.com/Vermeullarmine/status/1853763787133722639

    I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.

    The problem with 'fascism' is that it is relatively poorly-defined, as we've seen on previous discussions on here. It seems to be that people think they know it when they see it; but others disagree with those personal definitions and examples.

    I'm happy to call Putin a fascist, and think I can argue the point fairly well. But Trump? No, not yet. He and his ilk are happy to use some of the tactics fascists use: e.g. disagreement is treason; fear of difference; machismo and weaponry. Others are not much present: e.g. the cult of tradition.

    But Trump et al don't need to be fascist to do terrible things, and calling them 'fascists!' might well be counter-productive. They are bad on their own terms.
    This has been my concern for a while, especially with the "end of democracy" paranoia.

    Because it's too easy for voters to see that he didn't do any of that really bad stuff last time, and you end up with wolf-crying.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    100%. That is the real appeal of Trump to the rednecks, incel types, Latino men, and young Black men.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.

    @Steven_Swinford
    Kemi Badenoch was left infuriated after The Times disclosed that she had appointed Robert Jenrick as her shadow justice secretary yesterday

    Badenoch had wanted to announce Jenrick’s appointment today so the appointments of Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary and Mel Stride as shadow chancellor would take the headlines

    She must have leaked the news to someone in the first place.
    Could have been BJ.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    98 yr old Dick van Dyke's endorsement.
    https://x.com/mylifeIMO/status/1853639242364137895
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @adamboultonTABB

    IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
    @KamalaHarris overcomes both.

    100%. That is the real appeal of Trump to the rednecks, incel types, Latino men, and young Black men.
    Probably why he uses Village People music - he associates it with Macho Man (obvs not realizing the true implications of the band or their music).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    theProle said:

    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

    It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.
    Many caught out in the reduction in headcount were the people who Musk stupidly thought did nothing, but actually did things like ensure that the brands who gave Twitter its money do not have their ads placed next to posts they might see as objectionable.

    This forced many brands off the platform, and has led to Musk blaming everyone else but himself.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    edited November 5
    Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

    They haven't.

    My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

    Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

    In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,781
    ToryJim said:

    Chris said:

    Cicero said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Donald where´s your troosers?
    Tears of a Clown, hopefully.
    REM - Orange Crush....
    Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman…
    Kamala reading Roger McGough's poem "The Leader"?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    BTW, still going with a comfortable win for Harris.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    edited November 5
    KnightOut said:

    I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.

    This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.

    What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.

    Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.

    I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.

    The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
    It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
    It really does depend on exactly *who* is having/raising the children. Or failing to have them.This is the uncomfortable truth.

    Our society has arguably been hyper-reproductive in the 'wrong' areas, and pretty barren amongst those whose offspring would, on balance, have the potential to make a more positive impact.

    I know this is a generalisation and I'd never argue for any forceful intervention of any kind, but it is the reality, however unpalatable.

    Genetics, background, culture, geography, money, time, intellect, consciousness, politics - all stuff that can make a difference.

    This is why it pisses me off when politicians say 'talent is evenly distributed but opportunity isn't '. What evidence is the first assertion based on? Has there been some big Trading Places-style experiment that we weren't told about.
    Kind of. You can look at adopted children, e.g. Sacerdote (2002, "The Nature and Nurture of Economic Outcomes," American Economic Review, 92 (2): 344–348). He concludes:

    I find that being raised in a high-SES family (or in a high-income town) greatly increases the probability that a child will attend college and increases the selectivity of the college attended. [...] These findings support the notion that environment can be incredibly potent in determining children’s outcomes and that environment’s potency may vary with the outcome considered.

    Black et al. (2020) also looked at adoptees, now in Sweden:

    Wealth is highly correlated between parents and their children; however, little is known about the extent to which these relationships are genetic or determined by environmental factors. We use administrative data on the net wealth of a large sample of Swedish adoptees merged with similar information for their biological and adoptive parents. Comparing the relationship between the wealth of adopted and biological parents and that of the adopted child, we find that, even prior to any inheritance, there is a substantial role for environment and a much smaller role for pre-birth factors and we find little evidence that nature/nurture interactions are important. When bequests are taken into account, the role of adoptive parental wealth becomes much stronger. Our findings suggest that wealth transmission is not primarily because children from wealthier families are inherently more talented or more able but that, even in relatively egalitarian Sweden, wealth begets wealth.

    Bjorklund et al. (2005) in Sweden came to similar conclusions on earnings comparing sibling types (monozygotic twins, dizygotic twins, other siblings).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    Andy_JS said:

    Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

    They haven't.

    My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

    Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

    In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.

    Can you follow up to ask for the source of that incorrect number?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    The weathers looking a bit wet for parts of the mid west . The current radar though does show a gap over Madison WI and Detroit MI . Perhaps it’s a sign !
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Super interesting video (first 20 mins)

    The Hidden Crisis in the UK Economy
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7po69QCHVs

    Which is backed up experience of this guy building a company

    From ROUGH School to $800 Million CEO?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbXmojTTzEk

    It's going to have to wait it's turn whilst we deal with the unhidden ones.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Andy_JS said:

    Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

    They haven't.

    My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

    Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

    In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.

    Accuracy is for low status people.

    Quickly generating, big, thick documents is much more important.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    If Harris wins, I Predict a Riot (in reality and the Kaiser Chiefs).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    theProle said:

    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

    It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.
    Twitter had started making profit a few years before Musk took over. It took time to get there, but was looking sustainable.

    Then Musk took over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited November 5
    This is the real Deep State that's being voted on.

    Neither candidate wants to talk about it, but the stakes today for the Supreme Court’s future are huge. A GOP win could cement this majority for another generation or two. A Dem win could protect theirs or shrink this majority. Divided gov’t means a R Senate could stymie Harris.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853791927738536132

    Imagine a 6/3 - or possibly 7/2 - court, to the right of the current one.
    For the next couple of decades.

    At best, President Harris might make it 5/4 to the liberals - but with a likely GOP Senate doing the confirming,
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Chris said:

    Cicero said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Donald where´s your troosers?
    Tears of a Clown, hopefully.
    REM - Orange Crush....
    Double figure likes for this post please kids. It's very clever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    If Harris won Nevada, as Ralston predicts, then she can afford to lose Penn as long as she gains either Georgia or N Carolina.

    Bear in mind that Biden won 306 ECVs and Trump still dragged the process out into January, with violence on the streets. Harris does only need 270 ECVs to win but if she does land in the 270s, it'll get very ugly before it gets better - assuming that Trump doesn't manage to persuade Congress and/or the courts to fiddle the result for him (which is unlikely but certainly not impossible).
    Unless it is 268 each Congress has no power to intervene directly and in 2020 remember even most GOP Senators voted that Biden had won even if most GOP House Reps voted to challenge state results and say Trump had won.

    The courts cannot intervene either unless to stop the count but Trump would have to be ahead in that states count anyway at that point
    It's 269 for a tie. But leaving that aside:

    Congress has absolute discretion to count the votes, which also means validating the votes. It can throw out a state's votes if it considers those votes to be invalid - and it can use whatever argument it likes to come to such a determination. There is no obligation on Congress to produce a 538 total, or to 'find' votes in place of a set it doesn't like.

    The count in Congress has generally been entirely procedural but it isn't, necessarily: it's a functional part of the process and if there is dispute as to who the valid Electors are, or should be, or whether they have cast their votes correctly or not, Congress can choose not to count them.

    Now, I agree that it's unlikely that the GOP would have the votes to play such shenanigans and that Trump also actually lost the election. In reality, it'd take a Red Wave to give the Republicans the votes - and such a wave would almost certainly bring Trump victory via the normal route. Nonetheless, if he wants to play silly, it's an option.

    How the courts could intervene, and to do what, is pretty much unclear but US courts, and especially the Supreme Court, tend not to be shy about asserting their powers over pretty much everything else.
    No it can't, Congress needs 2/3 majorities in both Chambers to invalidate state votes.

    As I said in 2020 not even a majority of GOP Senators voted for that let alone a majority of Democratic Congressional representatives and Senators so it is not happening.

    As I also said the Courts have no constitutional power to do anything but stop the count, as they did in Florida in 2000 but if Harris is ahead in a state already when they do that it makes no difference anyway
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia
    Re-reading the lyrics, perhaps not. The Devil gets beat …
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

    They haven't.

    My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

    Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

    In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.

    Can you follow up to ask for the source of that incorrect number?
    It doesn't know the source of the incorrect number it's an hallucination..
  • TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia
    Charlie Daniel's Band. A cracker of a song! Brillant!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

    They haven't.

    My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

    Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

    In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.

    Can you follow up to ask for the source of that incorrect number?
    It doesn't know the source of the incorrect number it's an hallucination..
    I was just curious how it would justify the number.
  • TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia
    The Devil was beat by Johnny.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    edited November 5

    theProle said:

    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

    It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.
    Twitter had started making profit a few years before Musk took over. It took time to get there, but was looking sustainable.

    Then Musk took over.
    This isn't really true. It made money in only 2 years its entire existence before dropping again to unprofitability, and it was really just accounting trickery. It doubled its head count during COVID, which was ridiculous.

    Now, under Musk ownership, a fair criticism is, is the company being improved?

    The underlying problem Twitter has always had, it doesn't know its users, which makes advertising value on the platform far less attractive and valuable than Facebook. The genius of Meta is they know so much about every user on all its platforms and has tech to find out more / monetarise this. Twitter has very poor tech behind the scenes and has had limited product development way before Musk.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Driver said:

    ToryJim said:

    Chris said:

    Cicero said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Donald where´s your troosers?
    Tears of a Clown, hopefully.
    REM - Orange Crush....
    Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman…
    Kamala reading Roger McGough's poem "The Leader"?
    Which brings us to the unmentionable Gary Glitter's Leader of the Gang.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,156
    edited November 5
    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    All very fascist? I thought they were lovers of bureaucracy and the big state (provided it was putting their policies into action). The one thing they weren't was libertarian individualists like Musk.
  • theProle said:

    Phil said:

    Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

    There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

    Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

    Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

    The Red Wallers he's after???

    I very much doubt it.

    This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

    The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
    I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

    It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.
    Twitter had started making profit a few years before Musk took over. It took time to get there, but was looking sustainable.

    Then Musk took over.
    This isn't true. It made money in only 2 years, and it was really just accounting trickery.
    That makes a change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,245
    Nigelb said:

    98 yr old Dick van Dyke's endorsement.
    https://x.com/mylifeIMO/status/1853639242364137895

    California, Harris' and van Dyke's home state, is the only one of the big 5 states by population where she is at least matching Biden's 2020 total. In Texas, Florida, New York and Pennsylvania she is down on Biden's total and Trump up, hence as I said a Trump popular vote win is very possible even if Harris scrapes an EC victory by holding the bluewall states even Kerry won in 2004 when Bush won the popular vote by 2%
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Update from a different PA polling place

    Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

    So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.
    Yes, but Uk elections will be max 3 things to vote for normally? I've never had to put an X in more than 4 boxes.

    Whereas in the US, there could be 20-40 different things to vote for.
    But that isn't a surprise. It's the same every election. The response should be: more polling places, open longer, so that people don't have to queue for so long to fill in the yard-long ballot paper.

    Instead they make the prices as difficult as possible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    edited November 5
    You need special pleading for a tie because something odd has to happen in either Maine-2 or Nebraska-2 to get there (Which indicates a landslide for either candidate). I can't see how to reach it without those both going the same way, and if they both do well it's not a tie.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    If Harris wins, I Predict a Riot (in reality and the Kaiser Chiefs).
    Great song!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,771
    Nigelb said:

    This is the real Deep State that's being voted on.

    Neither candidate wants to talk about it, but the stakes today for the Supreme Court’s future are huge. A GOP win could cement this majority for another generation or two. A Dem win could protect theirs or shrink this majority. Divided gov’t means a R Senate could stymie Harris.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853791927738536132

    Imagine a 6/3 - or possibly 7/2 - court, to the right of the current one.
    For the next couple of decades.

    At best, President Harris might make it 5/4 to the liberals - but with a likely GOP Senate doing the confirming,

    The battle for the Supreme Court has already been won by the right for the foreseeable future. Clinton was right in 2016 that it was going to be a very consequential election on that front, and so it proved.

    The only way that will change is when Democrats again win a government trifecta with clear majorities. That doesn’t look like having much chance of happening in the next few election cycles.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    edited November 5
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

    Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

    Kamala Chameleon
    Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....
    Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

    Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
    Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.
    The Lights Went out in Georgia
    The devil went down to Georgia
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,475

    Andy_JS said:

    Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

    They haven't.

    My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

    Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

    In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.

    Accuracy is for low status people.

    Quickly generating, big, thick documents is much more important.
    GPT: garbage produced textually
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