Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
I would be happier if I were a Democratic organiser in Georgia, than a Republican. But, there are two issues:
1. If turnout matches 2020, there are 750,000 votes still to come on the day. We don't know how those people will break. They might very well overturn a 166,000 vote firewall, among early voters.
2. We don't actually know how women in Georgia split. The split might be better than an 11% margin for Harris, or it might be worse. That's a major source of uncertainty.
You say it's not about race, but I would counter that race is always the elephant in the room in Southern State elections, some of which are close to ethnic headcounts.
Companies that poll Georgia might in fact, be quite correct.
Requires some special pleading for Harris to lose Georgia. It would have to be in a world all of its own.
That 750,000 still to vote would have to split better than 455k-295k Republican for Trump to win. Nowhere - but nowhere - is he getting splits above 60:40 in national polling. He can't get above 48%.
It's possible that turnout goes through the roof. But then ask yourself which is more likely - a wave of late-breaking Trump voters coming to the polls - or a wave of late-breaking Harris supporters boosting turnout? The polling is saying the late breakers are going decisively to Harris. I know which I think far more likely...
The voting intentions of Georgians who vote in person, on the day, may very well be quite different from those who have voted early. In fact we know quite well that they were in 2020.
What you're doing is taking the raw voting numbers, and then doing what no pollster would do. You're assuming that only one weighting (by sex) matters. Whereas income, religion, education, political affiliation race etc. are just as important influences on voting intention as sex.
We are about 15 hours away from finding out whether marqueemarkmethodology is a load of bollocks - or leaves pollsters trailing in his wake.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
Surely an old hand like you has a bottle of Lea & Perrins in your suitcase by default?
More than that
My always-with-me condiment bag has
Sea salt grinder (filled with halen mon)
Black pepper grinder (kampot black peppercorns)
A small bottle of sriracha
A small bottle of kikkomans soy
A bottle of plain Tabasco and a bottle habanero Tabasco
But I’ve been out here so long I’ve run out of both Tabascos! The horror! And it turns out you can only get Tabasco in big supermarkets and they apparently don’t exist in central Seoul
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
We have some sun forecast for early this afternoon. Must say, out of my study window, it doesn't look promising!
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
What's the point in being rich if you can't order both - then not touch the food?
I’ve found a really cool little Taiwanese sort-of izakaya and I’m having Taiwanese food ordered from a special ipad and using my iPhone to translate with photos
It’s all tremendous fun and Korea is brilliant
Never been yet. It's on the list.
Although it look like Mauritania first...
Envious! Sadly, my travelling days seem done.
Aw... I'll have to send postcards.
I suspect I will be the first pb-er to post from there.
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
What's the point in being rich if you can't order both - then not touch the food?
I’ve found a really cool little Taiwanese sort-of izakaya and I’m having Taiwanese food ordered from a special ipad and using my iPhone to translate with photos
It’s all tremendous fun and Korea is brilliant
Never been yet. It's on the list.
Although it look like Mauritania first...
Be careful. It is one of the dodgier places in North Africa to travel to. A few friends have worked there and do not have a good opinion of the place.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
I would be happier if I were a Democratic organiser in Georgia, than a Republican. But, there are two issues:
1. If turnout matches 2020, there are 750,000 votes still to come on the day. We don't know how those people will break. They might very well overturn a 166,000 vote firewall, among early voters.
2. We don't actually know how women in Georgia split. The split might be better than an 11% margin for Harris, or it might be worse. That's a major source of uncertainty.
You say it's not about race, but I would counter that race is always the elephant in the room in Southern State elections, some of which are close to ethnic headcounts.
Companies that poll Georgia might in fact, be quite correct.
Requires some special pleading for Harris to lose Georgia. It would have to be in a world all of its own.
That 750,000 still to vote would have to split better than 455k-295k Republican for Trump to win. Nowhere - but nowhere - is he getting splits above 60:40 in national polling. He can't get above 48%.
It's possible that turnout goes through the roof. But then ask yourself which is more likely - a wave of late-breaking Trump voters coming to the polls - or a wave of late-breaking Harris supporters boosting turnout? The polling is saying the late breakers are going decisively to Harris. I know which I think far more likely...
The voting intentions of Georgians who vote in person, on the day, may very well be quite different from those who have voted early. In fact we know quite well that they were in 2020.
What you're doing is taking the raw voting numbers, and then doing what no pollster would do. You're assuming that only one weighting (by sex) matters. Whereas income, religion, education, political affiliation race etc. are just as important influences on voting intention as sex.
We are about 15 hours away from finding out whether marqueemarkmethodology is a load of bollocks - or leaves pollsters trailing in his wake.
The question I posed was: "How many letter r's in the word raspberry?"
It answered two.
I just tried this. Five seconds ago
Answer:
“Let me count the r's explicitly:
r(1)aspber(2)r(3)y
There are 3 r's in "raspberry".”
It got it right on that occasion. It gets a lot wrong, frequently. Which is fine as long as you are prepared to use you own judgement as a check and balance. The worrying trend I’m seeing is otherwise intelligent, professional, sceptical folk treating its output as gospel. This is a thing.
If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I imagine you are using ChatGPT or Gemini. The first often gets this wrong the second very often gets this wrong
I’m using Anthropic Claude 3.6. By far the best model and the one closest to true AGI. It is absolutely outstanding - and breathtaking in its capabilities. Its amazing it is not better known
The other day I had a debate with it which changed my world view
But I can’t say any more because I’m not allowed. Ah well. Back to American politics! Also a shower after my gym visit and then a nice gin and tonic
Just tried Anthropic Claude 3.5
Unfortunately it has m1r purl and m1l purl reversed. This means it's giving instructions for a right-leaning increase instead of a left-leaning one.
It's actually a kinda impressive mistake. I can't quite work out how it's done it. All the training data will have it the right way round. But it's very wrong.
You need sonnet 3.5 (new) - we claudites call it 3.6
It may still make some of these mistakes but they are all slowly being ironed out
To me many of these so-called flaws remind me of the human blind spot. We literally have an area in our field of vision we cannot ever see (the fovea). So the brain hallucinates what is likely to be there (and maybe gets it wrong)
AI does similarly
If I am allowed to talk about this I could explain in detail why 3.6 is absolutely fucking astonishing
But I don’t want to be banned on the eve of the most important etc etc election in recent history
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
What's the point in being rich if you can't order both - then not touch the food?
I’ve found a really cool little Taiwanese sort-of izakaya and I’m having Taiwanese food ordered from a special ipad and using my iPhone to translate with photos
It’s all tremendous fun and Korea is brilliant
Never been yet. It's on the list.
Although it look like Mauritania first...
Envious! Sadly, my travelling days seem done.
Aw... I'll have to send postcards.
I suspect I will be the first pb-er to post from there.
After my first in posting from Somalia...
I never managed to get to anywhere in N Africa. Or Central, come to that. Big regret, though, is never going to South America.
How does childless South Korea bode for its long-term defence against North Korea?
What's the birth rate in North Korea ?
The death rate is probably more pertinent.
Not really, because being born is optional (decided by your would-be parents), but death is mandatory. It's like take-offs and landings with aeroplanes.
It's relevant if potential parents die before they get the chance to become parents.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
What's the point in being rich if you can't order both - then not touch the food?
I’ve found a really cool little Taiwanese sort-of izakaya and I’m having Taiwanese food ordered from a special ipad and using my iPhone to translate with photos
It’s all tremendous fun and Korea is brilliant
Never been yet. It's on the list.
Although it look like Mauritania first...
Be careful. It is one of the dodgier places in North Africa to travel to. A few friends have worked there and do not have a good opinion of the place.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
We have some sun forecast for early this afternoon. Must say, out of my study window, it doesn't look promising!
"Anticyclonic gloom" were the new words of the day for my daughter this morning.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
@MarqueeMark your enthusiasm is infectious but from a betting point of view I must confess I take all your posts with a very large pinch of salt!
We need cold hard objectivity over the next 24 hours. Not to grasp the best bits of news we want to hear.
But he did maths and everything.
Have the polls not already weighted for the male/female thing?
To an extent but they seem to have missed out the fact that the men aren't actually voting....
Hence the polls may be saying 50/50 but that's based on the inaccurate starting point of 2020 electoral voting patterns instead of the ones we are actually seeing in 2024..
Time zones bugger up some states I see, with differential times for closing the polls. So the Florida panhandle will delay things, but North Caroline being on the half hour means they might get in ahead.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
We have some sun forecast for early this afternoon. Must say, out of my study window, it doesn't look promising!
"Anticyclonic gloom" were the new words of the day for my daughter this morning.
Is she studying meteorology? I'm never sure how old colleagues here are (except Big G, of course) so never sure how old their children are.
How does childless South Korea bode for its long-term defence against North Korea?
What's the birth rate in North Korea ?
Dunno
Higher than in the south and above replacement level IIRC
Its not above replacement level.
Hard to force women to have more children even in an ultra repressive regime.
In addition, the birth rate feeds into size of population and number of young men available to be conscript soldiers. Which makes the birth rate an important military number - because NK has a 1950s style mass conscript army.
In the Soviet Union, because of similar considerations, the birth rate stars were lies. Further, people at the bottom of the system lied to those above etc. So the *leaders of the Soviet Union didn’t know the truth*
So the numbers on birth rate in North Korea are quite probably lies. Given they are below replacement and the state has acknowledged it, it is probably lower than the figures we are seeing.
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
We have some sun forecast for early this afternoon. Must say, out of my study window, it doesn't look promising!
"Anticyclonic gloom" were the new words of the day for my daughter this morning.
Is she studying meteorology? I'm never sure how old colleagues here are (except Big G, of course) so never sure how old their children are.
No lol, she was taking bunny, pink bunny, eagle, bear, Miss Polly and monkey's temperature this morning. She's 2.5.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
What's the point in being rich if you can't order both - then not touch the food?
I’ve found a really cool little Taiwanese sort-of izakaya and I’m having Taiwanese food ordered from a special ipad and using my iPhone to translate with photos
It’s all tremendous fun and Korea is brilliant
Never been yet. It's on the list.
Although it look like Mauritania first...
Envious! Sadly, my travelling days seem done.
Aw... I'll have to send postcards.
I suspect I will be the first pb-er to post from there.
After my first in posting from Somalia...
I never managed to get to anywhere in N Africa. Or Central, come to that. Big regret, though, is never going to South America.
Argentina and Brazil were both wonderful. The Patagonia Nationl Park was great. Galapogos was pretty much all I've done of Ecuador (other than when due to the most bizarre circumstances I ended up with a day to kill in Quito). In Colombia all I got to see was Bogota, but as that included the gold museum and lunch at the very colonial Gun Club, I was satisfied with my time there.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.
It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.
Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.
And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.
"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.
Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.
"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."
I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.
So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.
Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.
ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.
2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:
Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast
Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million
So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.
Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes
And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:
Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:
"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."
The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.
A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.
I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
@MarqueeMark your enthusiasm is infectious but from a betting point of view I must confess I take all your posts with a very large pinch of salt!
We need cold hard objectivity over the next 24 hours. Not to grasp the best bits of news we want to hear.
My post is hard-nosed objectivity! Based on two data points: the very real actual polling numbers from the official Georgia website, showing how far ahead women voters are with 56% of all those entitled to vote having done so (so 100% objectivity); and the last ABC poll which showed how the female voters were breaking decisivley to Harris (with males beaking less solidly for Trump) - which you could argue with but it doesn't seem out of line with other pollsters you could choose.
You really don't need other data points to go "bloody hell!"
I hope you are not wishcasting like all our Trumpian friends, who claim not to be wishcasting.
How does childless South Korea bode for its long-term defence against North Korea?
What's the birth rate in North Korea ?
Dunno
Higher than in the south and above replacement level IIRC
Its not above replacement level.
Hard to force women to have more children even in an ultra repressive regime.
In addition, the birth rate feeds into size of population and number of young men available to be conscript soldiers. Which makes the birth rate an important military number - because NK has a 1950s style mass conscript army.
In the Soviet Union, because of similar considerations, the birth rate stars were lies. Further, people at the bottom of the system lied to those above etc. So the *leaders of the Soviet Union didn’t know the truth*
So the numbers on birth rate in North Korea are quite probably lies. Given they are below replacement and the state has acknowledged it, it is probably lower than the figures we are seeing.
Sounds like the NorKs might be about to lose a few thousand of their best soldiers.
Apparently they can’t communicate too well with the Russians, and there’s already been friendly fire incidents. Meanwhile the Ukranians are love-bombing them with propoganda about defection - before bomb-bombing them with tanks and drones.
The vast majority of the NorK army has never encountered an actual enemy.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
Surely an old hand like you has a bottle of Lea & Perrins in your suitcase by default?
More than that
My always-with-me condiment bag has
Sea salt grinder (filled with halen mon)
Black pepper grinder (kampot black peppercorns)
A small bottle of sriracha
A small bottle of kikkomans soy
A bottle of plain Tabasco and a bottle habanero Tabasco
But I’ve been out here so long I’ve run out of both Tabascos! The horror! And it turns out you can only get Tabasco in big supermarkets and they apparently don’t exist in central Seoul
On Amazon Prime you could deliver to it your hotel as a present.
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
We have some sun forecast for early this afternoon. Must say, out of my study window, it doesn't look promising!
"Anticyclonic gloom" were the new words of the day for my daughter this morning.
Is she studying meteorology? I'm never sure how old colleagues here are (except Big G, of course) so never sure how old their children are.
No lol, she was taking bunny, pink bunny, eagle, bear, Miss Polly and monkey's temperature this morning. She's 2.5.
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.
This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.
What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.
Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.
I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.
The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
What's the point in being rich if you can't order both - then not touch the food?
I’ve found a really cool little Taiwanese sort-of izakaya and I’m having Taiwanese food ordered from a special ipad and using my iPhone to translate with photos
It’s all tremendous fun and Korea is brilliant
Never been yet. It's on the list.
Although it look like Mauritania first...
Envious! Sadly, my travelling days seem done.
Aw... I'll have to send postcards.
I suspect I will be the first pb-er to post from there.
After my first in posting from Somalia...
I never managed to get to anywhere in N Africa. Or Central, come to that. Big regret, though, is never going to South America.
Argentina and Brazil were both wonderful. The Patagonia Nationl Park was great. Galapogos was pretty much all I've done of Ecuador (other than when due to the most bizarre circumstances I ended up with a day to kill in Quito). In Colombia all I got to see was Bogota, but as that included the gold museum and lunch at the very colonial Gun Club, I was satisfied with my time there.
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
Reform aren't united in what they want at all, merely what they dislike. Modernity.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
If I understand the ruling correctly, the place had a culture of them all swearing like they were cabbies having an off day, and nobody knew what the dignity at work policy said, never mind followed it. They then picked on this particular bloke because someone got upset about something he said and sacked him, without much effort to follow due process.
I'm not supprised they were found to have unfairly dismissed. The rights and wrongs of that particular workplace culture don't really come into it - it's more about consistency and fairness.
Our solar panels had their worst week for energy production last week since January, and as I look out from our balcony at the vast wind farm in the Irish sea, the blades are barely turning
Good lord, yes my app tells me I've only generated 8.2 KwH in November so far lol.
We have some sun forecast for early this afternoon. Must say, out of my study window, it doesn't look promising!
"Anticyclonic gloom" were the new words of the day for my daughter this morning.
Is she studying meteorology? I'm never sure how old colleagues here are (except Big G, of course) so never sure how old their children are.
No lol, she was taking bunny, pink bunny, eagle, bear, Miss Polly and monkey's temperature this morning. She's 2.5.
The no booze without food thing does get really old very quickly, in Korea
Also it’s near impossible to buy Tabasco in central Seoul
These tiny things begin to grate
Surely an old hand like you has a bottle of Lea & Perrins in your suitcase by default?
More than that
My always-with-me condiment bag has
Sea salt grinder (filled with halen mon)
Black pepper grinder (kampot black peppercorns)
A small bottle of sriracha
A small bottle of kikkomans soy
A bottle of plain Tabasco and a bottle habanero Tabasco
But I’ve been out here so long I’ve run out of both Tabascos! The horror! And it turns out you can only get Tabasco in big supermarkets and they apparently don’t exist in central Seoul
On Amazon Prime you could deliver to it your hotel as a present.
Not sure if they do microbottles.
Amazon doesn't exist in Korea - their equalivant is Coupang which does have tabasco sauce.
Richard Hughes(OBR): "There was about £9.5b worth of net pressure on department budgets, which they (Tories) did not disclose to us as part of our usual budget preparation... which under the law & under the act they should have done.." https://x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1853758097099026446
Re the farms IHT in the budget, a small note. An NFU bloke speaking this morning, instead of attacking the whole thing majored on what is a very particular and limited difficulty - and which unlike the general hoohah has truth in it.
An ancient farmer - say now 87 - has, following law and custom, clung on to entire ownership while younger ones do the work and moan about their father. If he fails to live 7 years he can't plan for the IHT change effectively because either gift or a split ownership deal will fall foul of the 7 year rule.
This small anomaly won't last long and there should be a tapering adjustment to sort it. There may be ways round it (sale to family with farm itself as collateral?) but they are tricky.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
If I understand the ruling correctly, the place had a culture of them all swearing like they were cabbies having an off day, and nobody knew what the dignity at work policy said, never mind followed it. They then picked on this particular bloke because someone got upset about something he said and sacked him, without much effort to follow due process.
I'm not supprised they were found to have unfairly dismissed. The rights and wrongs of that particular workplace culture don't really come into it - it's more about consistency and fairness.
Yes, you seem to be the first to twig that this is about employment law and procedure, rather than what language is or isn't acceptable.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
How does childless South Korea bode for its long-term defence against North Korea?
What's the birth rate in North Korea ?
Dunno
Higher than in the south and above replacement level IIRC
Its not above replacement level.
Hard to force women to have more children even in an ultra repressive regime.
You’re quite right. Its much higher than the south but still below replacement: 1.8 per woman
Just goes to show how universal this crisis is
It's (grimly) fascinating, isn't it? No matter what the political and social framework, birth rates are falling massively. In Africa they are still high, but look at most thirty years behind Asia.
With apologies for banging on about a pet topic, my conclusion from this is that the reasons for the fall in birth rates aren't social or political, but something more fundamental.
My guess is it's simply a matter of more old people. No matter how you organise your society - individualist or collectivist, traditional or libertarian - the more old people you are having to look after, the fewer resources you have available to raise new people. And EVERYWHERE has a lot more old people than it did a generation ago.
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
Only the wasteful bits.
So pensions, healthcare and border security are safe.
Everything else, though...
(The polling on how people think the government spends money, compared with how it actually spends money, is always blooming terrifying.)
I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.
This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.
What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.
Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.
I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.
The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
Only the wasteful bits.
So pensions, healthcare and border security are safe.
Everything else, though...
(The polling on how people think the government spends money, compared with how it actually spends money, is always blooming terrifying.)
What Farage, Musk and his ilk really want is to transfer money from the poor to the rich.
They don't care about most of us; they only care about themselves.
In the southeast, of course, it would have been a 'facking mong'.
(My inlaws, who are from Croydon, are much, much swearier than my family.)
No idea who the Judge is, but he's got his head somewhere interesting:
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.
This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.
What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.
Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.
I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.
The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
You lament children that will not be born, of the very species that wrecks the planet?
Richard Hughes(OBR): "There was about £9.5b worth of net pressure on department budgets, which they (Tories) did not disclose to us as part of our usual budget preparation... which under the law & under the act they should have done.." https://x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1853758097099026446
The issue there is what time frame is he talking about. If it was March's budget then the NI cut was built on a pack of lies..
With one of the voters a Republican switching to Harris. Over 16% of the electorate. If that is anything like replicated nationally Trump will struggle to win a single state. Wow.
Re the farms IHT in the budget, a small note. An NFU bloke speaking this morning, instead of attacking the whole thing majored on what is a very particular and limited difficulty - and which unlike the general hoohah has truth in it.
An ancient farmer - say now 87 - has, following law and custom, clung on to entire ownership while younger ones do the work and moan about their father. If he fails to live 7 years he can't plan for the IHT change effectively because either gift or a split ownership deal will fall foul of the 7 year rule.
This small anomaly won't last long and there should be a tapering adjustment to sort it. There may be ways round it (sale to family with farm itself as collateral?) but they are tricky.
Searching for an edge case so that multi-millionaires can buy a farm and pass it on IHT exempt for their heirs to sell to the next multi-millionaire...
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
These people look at how things work and get inconvenienced by some stuff and jump to the conclusion that it’s all a shitshow. The reality is that 95% of the system works and you need to tinker at the margins rather than take a chainsaw to it. Unfortunately you can see the case for ‘everything is a hellscape, we need to burn it down to bedrock and start again’ being persuasive to people who don’t think too deeply about it.
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.
The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
Richard Hughes(OBR): "There was about £9.5b worth of net pressure on department budgets, which they (Tories) did not disclose to us as part of our usual budget preparation... which under the law & under the act they should have done.." https://x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1853758097099026446
The issue there is what time frame is he talking about. If it was March's budget then the NI cut was built on a pack of lies..
In broad terms, the NI cut was absolutely built on lies, which is why Hunt didn't even try to specify the consequences of his spending totals. They simply weren't attainable. (Most of the public sector pay rises that cause some to hyperventilate into their Daily Mails were the minimum needed to stop recruitment and retention getting any worse.)
On one level, the question of "how deliberately did Hunt lie- what did he know and when?" is interesting. But only as a historical question.
Meanwhile,
Tom Tugendhat declined a role - was not snubbed - according to Tory source
I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.
This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.
What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.
Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.
I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.
The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
The upside to the natural world from a falling population is overdone. What matters most in that respect is what technology we have, and how we use it. That's what we can change most quickly and will have the greatest impact.
I get quite cross about people arguing against having children on an environmental basis.
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.
The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
What was twitter selling ? Technically it's been absolutely fine since he took over.
I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.
This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.
What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.
Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.
I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.
The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.
You lament children that will not be born, of the very species that wrecks the planet?
Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.
The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
What was twitter selling ? Technically it's been absolutely fine since he took over.
I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.
I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.
I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.
The problem with 'fascism' is that it is relatively poorly-defined, as we've seen on previous discussions on here. It seems to be that people think they know it when they see it; but others disagree with those personal definitions and examples.
I'm happy to call Putin a fascist, and think I can argue the point fairly well. But Trump? No, not yet. He and his ilk are happy to use some of the tactics fascists use: e.g. disagreement is treason; fear of difference; machismo and weaponry. Others are not much present: e.g. the cult of tradition.
But Trump et al don't need to be fascist to do terrible things, and calling them 'fascists!' might well be counter-productive. They are bad on their own terms.
Comments
My always-with-me condiment bag has
Sea salt grinder (filled with halen mon)
Black pepper grinder (kampot black peppercorns)
A small bottle of sriracha
A small bottle of kikkomans soy
A bottle of plain Tabasco and a bottle habanero Tabasco
But I’ve been out here so long I’ve run out of both Tabascos! The horror! And it turns out you can only get Tabasco in big supermarkets and they apparently don’t exist in central Seoul
I suspect I will be the first pb-er to post from there.
After my first in posting from Somalia...
It may still make some of these mistakes but they are all slowly being ironed out
To me many of these so-called flaws remind me of the human blind spot. We literally have an area in our field of vision we cannot ever see (the fovea). So the brain hallucinates what is likely to be there (and maybe gets it wrong)
AI does similarly
If I am allowed to talk about this I could explain in detail why 3.6 is absolutely fucking astonishing
But I don’t want to be banned on the eve of the most important etc etc election in recent history
Hard to force women to have more children even in an ultra repressive regime.
Just goes to show how universal this crisis is
Try the Jindotgae hot sauce.
Orangish bottle with a dog on the label.
Should be able to get that along with your soju in most convenience stores.
Hence the polls may be saying 50/50 but that's based on the inaccurate starting point of 2020 electoral voting patterns instead of the ones we are actually seeing in 2024..
Time zones bugger up some states I see, with differential times for closing the polls. So the Florida panhandle will delay things, but North Caroline being on the half hour means they might get in ahead.
Ruling that the sacking was unfair, the judge noted that “swearing should not be acceptable in a workplace, although common everyday experience, particularly in the north, is that the F-word is used quite often, spoken in the public sphere.
They have a Dignity at Work policy:
Ogden highlighted a previous incident in which the shift manager was seen “pouring sweets” over the same woman’s head. He added there was “mutual horseplay” and inappropriate comments were routine, such as referring to the female colleague as “chubs”.
Delivery drivers behaving like cabbies really is not on in 2024.
https://archive.ph/iiwO5#selection-1711.0-1711.240
In the Soviet Union, because of similar considerations, the birth rate stars were lies. Further, people at the bottom of the system lied to those above etc. So the *leaders of the Soviet Union didn’t know the truth*
So the numbers on birth rate in North Korea are quite probably lies. Given they are below replacement and the state has acknowledged it, it is probably lower than the figures we are seeing.
Another mouth to feed & rather than look after you in old age, sons being sent to the Russian meat grinder.
Apparently they can’t communicate too well with the Russians, and there’s already been friendly fire incidents. Meanwhile the Ukranians are love-bombing them with propoganda about defection - before bomb-bombing them with tanks and drones.
The vast majority of the NorK army has never encountered an actual enemy.
Not sure if they do microbottles.
There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.
Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."
Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.
The Red Wallers he's after???
I very much doubt it.
I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.
The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.
Sounds great!
I'm not supprised they were found to have unfairly dismissed. The rights and wrongs of that particular workplace culture don't really come into it - it's more about consistency and fairness.
https://www.coupang.com/np/search?q=tabasco sauce&channel=auto&component=194176
I would recommend getting reception to order it though as that site is hard work...
Richard Hughes(OBR): "There was about £9.5b worth of net pressure on department budgets, which they (Tories) did not disclose to us as part of our usual budget preparation... which under the law & under the act they should have done.."
https://x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1853758097099026446
An ancient farmer - say now 87 - has, following law and custom, clung on to entire ownership while younger ones do the work and moan about their father. If he fails to live 7 years he can't plan for the IHT change effectively because either gift or a split ownership deal will fall foul of the 7 year rule.
This small anomaly won't last long and there should be a tapering adjustment to sort it. There may be ways round it (sale to family with farm itself as collateral?) but they are tricky.
Made a good headline, though.
With apologies for banging on about a pet topic, my conclusion from this is that the reasons for the fall in birth rates aren't social or political, but something more fundamental.
My guess is it's simply a matter of more old people. No matter how you organise your society - individualist or collectivist, traditional or libertarian - the more old people you are having to look after, the fewer resources you have available to raise new people. And EVERYWHERE has a lot more old people than it did a generation ago.
EDIT: just looked it up. Last time Joe B won it 5-0, and in 2014 Hillary won 4-2.
So pensions, healthcare and border security are safe.
Everything else, though...
(The polling on how people think the government spends money, compared with how it actually spends money, is always blooming terrifying.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07912lxx33o
"The incident at Jablonow near Warsaw took two hours to extinguish, according to Polish reports."
We are already at war.
They don't care about most of us; they only care about themselves.
The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.
On one level, the question of "how deliberately did Hunt lie- what did he know and when?" is interesting. But only as a historical question.
Meanwhile,
Tom Tugendhat declined a role - was not snubbed - according to Tory source
https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/1853743691061506489
Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....
I get quite cross about people arguing against having children on an environmental basis.
Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long
Enquiring minds want to know.
I saw more Women
Duran Duran and Election day and who was that guy who sang "i want to be elected" ? Ozzy Osborne ? That's another.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5rRZdiu1UE&pp=ygUVYmVhc3RpZSBib3lzIHNhYm90YWdl
I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.
He's already turning himself the right colour...
Good morning from Atlanta. There are lines out the doors for midtown’s polling places.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isCh4kCeNYU
I'm happy to call Putin a fascist, and think I can argue the point fairly well. But Trump? No, not yet. He and his ilk are happy to use some of the tactics fascists use: e.g. disagreement is treason; fear of difference; machismo and weaponry. Others are not much present: e.g. the cult of tradition.
But Trump et al don't need to be fascist to do terrible things, and calling them 'fascists!' might well be counter-productive. They are bad on their own terms.
Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.
https://youtu.be/kTdScE3Rqh8?si=7cy0_tBhe6dHB95Q