Aaron Bastani @AaronBastani · 7h This is basically ‘Occupy’ for the far right.
Particularly interesting since that proved incredibly underwhelming in the longer term.
Lord Miles @real_lord_miles · 14h A lot of the British nationalist group chats I'm in are mass organizing British person to refuses to come to work, bringing the economy to a standstill.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
If Labour want to sort out many of our social ills and also put 90% of the private sector out of business while at the same time going a long way to solving the teacher recruitment crisis that would certainly be one way to do it.
If parents were guaranteed a class size of no more than 20 in the state sector most of them would have their children out of private schools faster than the DfE can organise a works meeting.
“ ….the DfE can organise a works meeting”
You are claiming that the DfE could organise a piss up in a brewery?
Right
@SiteAdmins It looks certain @ydoethur has been kidnapped by OFSTED and is being held in a cellar somewhere. This is obviously a secret message to alert us.
Certainly not.
As if they would be able to find their way to a brewery.
When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.
He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?
If Twitter had any sort of moderation he'd be gone.
His last post I saw yesterday was that "Starmer was supporting the rape of thousands of British girls by immigrant barbarians." He's clearly gone off at the ( very ) deep end.
PB’s pro-riot squad claim tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of girls. Fox needs to up his rhetoric to compete.
Constantly repeating your lie doesn't make it anything other than a lie
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.
He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Would they ?
Looking at what the GOP now is, it's unclear that the nominee would have been someone 'normal' like Haley.
The two-tier Keir moniker / hashtag is really being pushed on twitter, how much is Russian bots and how much is organic, who knows.
Its why I said yesterday I think he made a small misstep by not addressing the counter "protesters" and saying let the police do their job, we are deploying extra resources, we can't have vigilante groups, if you do, you will also feel the full weight of the law.
Yes, I think "Two Tier Kier" is here to stay. Such a clever coinage
When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.
He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?
If Twitter had any sort of moderation he'd be gone.
His last post I saw yesterday was that "Starmer was supporting the rape of thousands of British girls by immigrant barbarians." He's clearly gone off at the ( very ) deep end.
Yes, as has been observed many times before, a lot of very thick people are drawn to acting.
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Still value at 2.26
The market will not be settled before the election on 5th November so it does mean tying money up. Note that Kamala remains 1.01 for the Democratic nomination which should be settled this week, possibly tomorrow.
As we regularly see with American elections, many of the markets are not settled for weeks afterwards, which should play into strategy calculations at this stage. The formal certification of elections will be on Jan 6th, and the inauguration on Jan 20th - those are most likely dates for Betfair to settle many of their markets.
When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.
He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?
Twitter ruins people.
It affected you too.
Why are you so personally offensive to fellow posters whose views are not your own?
Southam is one of the most measured posters on here.
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
Take a look at this morning's pre-market in the US, it's a bloodbath. I think we're moving into an overdue correction as investors and companies weigh up constant AI investment vs what kind of return it generates and market expectations of AI ROI being way, way too high. I think OpenAI would need to 10x their pricing overnight to start making money vs running costs for GPT4, there's no appetite for AI at those prices so something has got to give, right now it looks like investors are calling time on AI.
When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.
He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?
Twitter ruins people.
It affected you too.
I am pretty immune to personal attacks from someone with significant anger management issues and a total lack of self-knowledge.
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.
They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.
Many of the new generation of tech companies are, like in the dotcom bubble, hugely leveraged and unprofitable. They were flush with hedge fund money which needs to see a return now that money isn’t free any more.
The S&P 500 is absolutely the gold standard for long term investment, I have half my saving fund it in, with the other half split between the FTSE 100 and various tech and emerging stock markets.
Yes, I agree. Long term you never lose on it. I have half my SIPP/ISA in either that or a US General fund. I have a small portfolio of shares and the remainder I have in World trackers and Dividend based funds as I am moving towards retirement. I even bought more last week. Just regular buy and hold.
When I am looking at AI I guess my commentary is more skewed towards the larger companies riding the wave of it as they form such a large part of the market. I do not know sufficient about the smaller companies and would guess of these only a small percentage will survive.
Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.
Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.
It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
Cycle Parking.
Where is it?
If urban, there may be a list for people who want cycle hangars held by the Council.
If it is newbuild flat, there should be a requirement for cycle storage in the Planning Permission, perhaps as a Planning Condition. If that or similar exists, they can all ask the Council to enforce it as long as it is within X years.
My plan B would be a folder or e-folder.
Or if he has a parking space, he could SORN a van he puts there, and store his cycle in it. That's one tactic that is sometimes mentioned in connection with front curtilege parking spaces being Permitted Development, whilst a cycle locker needs Planning Permission.
Bikes increasingly being ebikes may be a problem as they run slap bang into the new fire safety regulations for flats after Grenfell. SORNing a van seems overkill, and a build it and they will come attitude to lockable cycle shelters has led to one near here that in the past two years, I've never seen house more than one bike. I can't guarantee it is not always the same one whose owner has died.
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Would they ?
Looking at what the GOP now is, it's unclear that the nominee would have been someone 'normal' like Haley.
If the shooter had caught Trump the nominee would be either Ramaswamy or Desantis I think.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
First, there needs to be immediate action to stop the riots, so whoever is reviewing video footage to identify rioters needs to be working round-the-clock with an eye to next day or even same day arrests, followed by short (days rather than years) prison sentences. Use of social media by anyone likely to have an influence, from politicians to footballers, might also be tried.
Second, in the longer term there needs to be serious action on levelling up, one of the few things Dominic Cummings was right about.
Third, it must be acknowledged it is not just economics. The immediate trigger was the slaughter of three young girls in Southport. This follows a number of similar crimes against children and young women whether by minorities or the great and good. As Foxy notes, old cases are whirring their way through the courts but paradoxically, these headlines can add to the impression the crimes are current.
Level up top what ?
The inequality, unaffordability and congestion of London and the waitrose belt ?
The reality is opportunities have never been better in northern England than they are now.
There is both affordable housing and plentiful jobs - all people require is a useful skillset.
And to get a useful skillset the big determinant is whether people want to make the effort to acquire one, because it does take effort. Governments can hand out educational certificates like confetti but they cannot hand out skillsets.
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
Take a look at this morning's pre-market in the US, it's a bloodbath. I think we're moving into an overdue correction as investors and companies weigh up constant AI investment vs what kind of return it generates and market expectations of AI ROI being way, way too high. I think OpenAI would need to 10x their pricing overnight to start making money vs running costs for GPT4, there's no appetite for AI at those prices so something has got to give, right now it looks like investors are calling time on AI.
Yep, a correction has been on the cards for quite a while. AI is a very clear part of the future but no-one yet knows in what ways. Just like the internet in 2000. Throw in a shedload of geopolitical uncertainty - which we did not have with the dotcom bubble - and hey presto.
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Would they ?
Looking at what the GOP now is, it's unclear that the nominee would have been someone 'normal' like Haley.
If the shooter had caught Trump the nominee would be either Ramaswamy or Desantis I think.
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Still value at 2.26
The market will not be settled before the election on 5th November so it does mean tying money up. Note that Kamala remains 1.01 for the Democratic nomination which should be settled this week, possibly tomorrow.
Sorry -- a gross error on my part. Kamala will not be settled until the DNC which is not this week, as I'd thought, but 19-22 August.
Reform voters are not generally the poor and the dispossessed slaving away on minimum wage jobs. The most Reform-supporting voter group is 'C2', the skilled working class - e.g. plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters. These are broadly middle income jobs.
Reform support is actually significantly lower among DEs, which is where many of the minimum wage occupations are found. What's more, most of this support is among the 55+. Turnout among DEs was just 22% among 18-34s and 42% among 35-45s, according to Ipsos. Pitifully low.
So among DEs under 55, according to Ipsos, about 33% turned out. And of these, about 16% voted Reform. ...That means about *5%* of people under 55 in the lowest social class voted for Reform. Not exactly an outcry of the dispossessed, is it?
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Still value at 2.26
The market will not be settled before the election on 5th November so it does mean tying money up. Note that Kamala remains 1.01 for the Democratic nomination which should be settled this week, possibly tomorrow.
As we regularly see with American elections, many of the markets are not settled for weeks afterwards, which should play into strategy calculations at this stage. The formal certification of elections will be on Jan 6th, and the inauguration on Jan 20th - those are most likely dates for Betfair to settle many of their markets.
Yes, and it does not help that I misstated Kamala's nomination to be this week. It should be 19-22 August. (Of course, this explains why 1.01 is available!)
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.
They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.
Many of the new generation of tech companies are, like in the dotcom bubble, hugely leveraged and unprofitable. They were flush with hedge fund money which needs to see a return now that money isn’t free any more.
The S&P 500 is absolutely the gold standard for long term investment, I have half my saving fund it in, with the other half split between the FTSE 100 and various tech and emerging stock markets.
The guy with four different products in his hair who looks after my money (and weeps real tears at some of my automotive purchases) told me that very few fund managers (or whatever those fucking coked up scumbags are called) will out perform the S&P 500 index.
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
Reform voters are not generally the poor and the dispossessed slaving away on minimum wage jobs. The most Reform-supporting voter group is 'C2', the skilled working class - e.g. plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters. These are broadly middle income jobs.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.
Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.
It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
Cycle Parking.
Where is it?
If urban, there may be a list for people who want cycle hangars held by the Council.
If it is newbuild flat, there should be a requirement for cycle storage in the Planning Permission, perhaps as a Planning Condition. If that or similar exists, they can all ask the Council to enforce it as long as it is within X years.
My plan B would be a folder or e-folder.
Or if he has a parking space, he could SORN a van he puts there, and store his cycle in it. That's one tactic that is sometimes mentioned in connection with front curtilege parking spaces being Permitted Development, whilst a cycle locker needs Planning Permission.
Bikes increasingly being ebikes may be a problem as they run slap bang into the new fire safety regulations for flats after Grenfell. SORNing a van seems overkill, and a build it and they will come attitude to lockable cycle shelters has led to one near here that in the past two years, I've never seen house more than one bike. I can't guarantee it is not always the same one whose owner has died.
All the private rental agreements I have signed prohibit bikes inside a property, so I don't see how that would change with e-bikes (and would be similarly unenforced). At least the new builds round here tend to have decent dedicated storage and local councillors kick up a fuss if they don't include that in the planning.
For existing tenements, the storage put in by my council are massively over-subscribed, and expensive enough for Matt's idea of parking a van and selling the space inside to actually make sense!
Reform voters are not generally the poor and the dispossessed slaving away on minimum wage jobs. The most Reform-supporting voter group is 'C2', the skilled working class - e.g. plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters. These are broadly middle income jobs.
Reform support is actually significantly lower among DEs, which is where many of the minimum wage occupations are found. What's more, most of this support is among the 55+. Turnout among DEs was just 22% among 18-34s and 42% among 35-45s, according to Ipsos. Pitifully low.
So among DEs under 55, according to Ipsos, about 33% turned out. And of these, about 16% voted Reform. ...That means about *5%* of people under 55 in the lowest social class voted for Reform. Not exactly an outcry of the dispossessed, is it?
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
At the present rates of immigration they are coming anyway
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.
They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.
Many of the new generation of tech companies are, like in the dotcom bubble, hugely leveraged and unprofitable. They were flush with hedge fund money which needs to see a return now that money isn’t free any more.
The S&P 500 is absolutely the gold standard for long term investment, I have half my saving fund it in, with the other half split between the FTSE 100 and various tech and emerging stock markets.
The guy with four different products in his hair who looks after my money (and weeps real tears at some of my automotive purchases) told me that very few fund managers (or whatever those fucking coked up scumbags are called) will out perform the S&P 500 index.
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
It’s absolutely true in the medium to long term.
Some fund managers will have good years, but very few will have a better decade than a basic S&P 500 tracker, once you take into account the fees charged by the fund managers.
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
I didn't get a specific answer from @leon about what the government should do other than "Denmark".
I think there a few great initiatives we could lift from the Danes. Taking our international quota of refugees. Allowing refugees to work. Creating asylum centres to house and feed refugees so that they are safe and protected from violent mobs. A scheme to fund refuge outside Europe *if and when their claim is refused having first been housed in and assessed by Denmark*
Good ideas worthy of discussion. Though I suspect the "Denmark" reference meant "send them to Rwanda" which is not what Denmark does.
There are challenges to "Denmark". Building refuge centres is something that gets attacked by NIMBY MPs and then by violent mobs. Allowing refugees to work is a great idea - so many skilled and talented people come as refugees. Won't be popular with the "Dey Terk Er Jerbs" mentality. And processing claims here? Radical.
On Lawrence Fox, I see that his most recent post not only mentions the inflmmatory language below, but then ends by saying "This is war".
Never mind Twitter and its failure to act, on that post alone he could probably quire easily be taken on for incitement.
For these online provocateurs there comes a point where the more outrageous you are the more money you make. All you have to do is avoid jail - otherwise you will get donations and supporters. Tommy Robinson seems to lead a nice life in Spain
Reform voters are not generally the poor and the dispossessed slaving away on minimum wage jobs. The most Reform-supporting voter group is 'C2', the skilled working class - e.g. plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters. These are broadly middle income jobs.
Reform support is actually significantly lower among DEs, which is where many of the minimum wage occupations are found. What's more, most of this support is among the 55+. Turnout among DEs was just 22% among 18-34s and 42% among 35-45s, according to Ipsos. Pitifully low.
So among DEs under 55, according to Ipsos, about 33% turned out. And of these, about 16% voted Reform. ...That means about *5%* of people under 55 in the lowest social class voted for Reform. Not exactly an outcry of the dispossessed, is it?
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
Fox have been doom and gloom about the market for a while now to the point that their commentary is of little value.
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.
They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.
Many of the new generation of tech companies are, like in the dotcom bubble, hugely leveraged and unprofitable. They were flush with hedge fund money which needs to see a return now that money isn’t free any more.
The S&P 500 is absolutely the gold standard for long term investment, I have half my saving fund it in, with the other half split between the FTSE 100 and various tech and emerging stock markets.
The guy with four different products in his hair who looks after my money (and weeps real tears at some of my automotive purchases) told me that very few fund managers (or whatever those fucking coked up scumbags are called) will out perform the S&P 500 index.
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
It is true. Most don't. Just buy a cheap S&P tracker and relax. That's Warren Buffet's advice. He knows his stuff.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
This question is being asked in Denmark. The main thing there is a criteria of x% per “area” of government social housing.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
In any case does the UK have the luxury of being able to destroy even barely habitable housing stock?
I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.
An example of believing what they are told most loudly?
On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.
They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.
Many of the new generation of tech companies are, like in the dotcom bubble, hugely leveraged and unprofitable. They were flush with hedge fund money which needs to see a return now that money isn’t free any more.
The S&P 500 is absolutely the gold standard for long term investment, I have half my saving fund it in, with the other half split between the FTSE 100 and various tech and emerging stock markets.
The guy with four different products in his hair who looks after my money (and weeps real tears at some of my automotive purchases) told me that very few fund managers (or whatever those fucking coked up scumbags are called) will out perform the S&P 500 index.
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
That’s been a standard trope since stockbrokers wore top hats, and probably before.
Actual tests generally seem to show it is true. With the exception of things like Warren Buffet’s pretty simple and logical rules for investing.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
At the present rates of immigration they are coming anyway
And you want even more by supporting FoM with the EU.
Do you know where the people in the 'ethnic ghetto' in Harehills originated ?
FTSE 100 off 2% in early trading, which almost doesn’t seem too bad given everything else that’s going on.
The sell off is largely focussed around AI and the industries that feed into it or are expected to show huge benefits from it. The FTSE100 doesn't really have any of these beyond the standard AI use case of "maybe we can increase productivity a bit", there's certainly no Nvidia, Palantir or Microsoft down 6.5%, 6.7% and 4% in pre-market trading respectively.
I didn't get a specific answer from @leon about what the government should do other than "Denmark".
I think there a few great initiatives we could lift from the Danes. Taking our international quota of refugees. Allowing refugees to work. Creating asylum centres to house and feed refugees so that they are safe and protected from violent mobs. A scheme to fund refuge outside Europe *if and when their claim is refused having first been housed in and assessed by Denmark*
Good ideas worthy of discussion. Though I suspect the "Denmark" reference meant "send them to Rwanda" which is not what Denmark does.
There are challenges to "Denmark". Building refuge centres is something that gets attacked by NIMBY MPs and then by violent mobs. Allowing refugees to work is a great idea - so many skilled and talented people come as refugees. Won't be popular with the "Dey Terk Er Jerbs" mentality. And processing claims here? Radical.
Yep, I would be very relaxed about a Denmark-style future in the round. Unfortunately, it is not going to happen.
Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.
Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.
It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
Cycle Parking.
Where is it?
If urban, there may be a list for people who want cycle hangars held by the Council.
If it is newbuild flat, there should be a requirement for cycle storage in the Planning Permission, perhaps as a Planning Condition. If that or similar exists, they can all ask the Council to enforce it as long as it is within X years.
My plan B would be a folder or e-folder.
Or if he has a parking space, he could SORN a van he puts there, and store his cycle in it. That's one tactic that is sometimes mentioned in connection with front curtilege parking spaces being Permitted Development, whilst a cycle locker needs Planning Permission.
Bikes increasingly being ebikes may be a problem as they run slap bang into the new fire safety regulations for flats after Grenfell. SORNing a van seems overkill, and a build it and they will come attitude to lockable cycle shelters has led to one near here that in the past two years, I've never seen house more than one bike. I can't guarantee it is not always the same one whose owner has died.
All the private rental agreements I have signed prohibit bikes inside a property, so I don't see how that would change with e-bikes (and would be similarly unenforced). At least the new builds round here tend to have decent dedicated storage and local councillors kick up a fuss if they don't include that in the planning.
For existing tenements, the storage put in by my council are massively over-subscribed, and expensive enough for Matt's idea of parking a van and selling the space inside to actually make sense!
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
The EU was always going to decline as a source of immigration, Brexit or no Brexit. The period between 2004 and 2016 was anomalous, not the norm.
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
The guy with four different products in his hair who looks after my money (and weeps real tears at some of my automotive purchases) told me that very few fund managers (or whatever those fucking coked up scumbags are called) will out perform the S&P 500 index.
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
It is true. Most don't. Just buy a cheap S&P tracker and relax. That's Warren Buffet's advice. He knows his stuff.
Buffett's vehicle has recently sold more stock than it did in the previous decade.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
At the present rates of immigration they are coming anyway
And you want even more by supporting FoM with the EU.
Do you know where the people in the 'ethnic ghetto' in Harehills originated ?
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
Former GOP Lt. Of Georgia GeoffDuncanGA on Donald Trump:
“He is a felon thug who walks down the street and throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists, Like John McCain…The Republican party is content sitting across the street watching it happen not calling him out not jumping into that fight saying you are wrong for us ." https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820129273946009641
Interesting that he's making the same point I did about how far gone the Republicans are and how difficult it will be to pull them back into the mainstream.
Could the man with terrible hair see them go the way of the Whigs?
Trump is a grifting narcissist with no real beliefs, but the party he has created behind him is looking increasingly like a religious movement which is pushing for state integralism.
That's completely antithetical to the US constitutional and political tradition, but it's undeniably a central element of current GOP doctrine. And epitomised by the selection of Vance as VP.
Bookmarking the above for @viewcode , as he's keen on broad political theories, and I don't think he's done this one ?
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
An article which is 2 years old. And says nothing about Danish policy other than they have the right to refuse asylum claims. Which is exactly what I posted above.
The guy with four different products in his hair who looks after my money (and weeps real tears at some of my automotive purchases) told me that very few fund managers (or whatever those fucking coked up scumbags are called) will out perform the S&P 500 index.
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
It is true. Most don't. Just buy a cheap S&P tracker and relax. That's Warren Buffet's advice. He knows his stuff.
Buffett's vehicle has recently sold more stock than it did in the previous decade.
Whilst neither an active investor nor a Warren Buffett groupie, I would note that recently Buffett's long-time partner, Charlie Munger, died, which might or might not have led to a change in investment strategy and partial sell-offs.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
There is Good News! Many of the people rioting already don’t have jobs. And anyone getting caught is likely to lose their job if they have one.
The bad news of course is that grinding poverty and deprivation gets worse in these communities. But as I have been assured that poverty isn’t the issue I would have to assume that won’t make a difference…
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
At the present rates of immigration they are coming anyway
And you want even more by supporting FoM with the EU.
Do you know where the people in the 'ethnic ghetto' in Harehills originated ?
I seem to remember reading that is was 'white people' who burned the bus in Harehills.
Iustin Dobre, 37, of Clifton Mount, Harehills, was on Saturday charged with arson and violent disorder. The other five people arrested on suspicion of violent disorder remain in police custody.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
Other way round. If they do go to work, they won't be free to riot during the week. This may be a factor in greater weekend disturbances.
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
An article which is 2 years old. And says nothing about Danish policy other than they have the right to refuse asylum claims. Which is exactly what I posted above.
Reform voters are not generally the poor and the dispossessed slaving away on minimum wage jobs. The most Reform-supporting voter group is 'C2', the skilled working class - e.g. plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters. These are broadly middle income jobs.
Reform support is actually significantly lower among DEs, which is where many of the minimum wage occupations are found. What's more, most of this support is among the 55+. Turnout among DEs was just 22% among 18-34s and 42% among 35-45s, according to Ipsos. Pitifully low.
So among DEs under 55, according to Ipsos, about 33% turned out. And of these, about 16% voted Reform. ...That means about *5%* of people under 55 in the lowest social class voted for Reform. Not exactly an outcry of the dispossessed, is it?
Reform voters are those impressed by Nigel Farage. Being denied mass affluent banking status with Coutts and making a big fuss about it is unlikely to be a concern for those worried they won't be able to afford a pack of chicken wings at Aldi.
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
An article which is 2 years old. And says nothing about Danish policy other than they have the right to refuse asylum claims. Which is exactly what I posted above.
What’s your point again?
My point is that you are idealising something you don't understand. If a British government really copied Denmark's policies you would be posting explitive-laden rants about them on here.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
Other way round. If they do go to work, they won't be free to riot during the week. This may be a factor in greater weekend disturbances.
I suspect any rioters arrested will be unable to go to work...for a very long time.
I didn't get a specific answer from @leon about what the government should do other than "Denmark".
I think there a few great initiatives we could lift from the Danes. Taking our international quota of refugees. Allowing refugees to work. Creating asylum centres to house and feed refugees so that they are safe and protected from violent mobs. A scheme to fund refuge outside Europe *if and when their claim is refused having first been housed in and assessed by Denmark*
Good ideas worthy of discussion. Though I suspect the "Denmark" reference meant "send them to Rwanda" which is not what Denmark does.
There are challenges to "Denmark". Building refuge centres is something that gets attacked by NIMBY MPs and then by violent mobs. Allowing refugees to work is a great idea - so many skilled and talented people come as refugees. Won't be popular with the "Dey Terk Er Jerbs" mentality. And processing claims here? Radical.
A lot of the resentment is around hotels*. Completely unnecessary if we allow them to work and process their claims swiftly, both of which are fully in our control, and would save us money too.
* Of course a life stuck within a hotel with little money, restricted movement and no opportunity for legal work is not actually pleasant at all, but it does create resentment.
Farage has been quiet for a bit, now he knows how to play this. Two tier keir, Keir taking the knee, Keir condemning Trump for trying to stop the riots in America in 2020, etc
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
The EU was always going to decline as a source of immigration, Brexit or no Brexit. The period between 2004 and 2016 was anomalous, not the norm.
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
One overlooked and undesirable side effect of the riots will be the inevitable rise of Islamic gangs, whether religious, criminal or both, as "protectors" of ordinary Muslims.
Historically this has always been a pattern in the development of protection rackets. Start out by protecting the community against genuine threats; move on to charging the community for protection from outside threats; then become parasites in a full-blown protection racket.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
Other way round. If they do go to work, they won't be free to riot during the week. This may be a factor in greater weekend disturbances.
I suspect any rioters arrested will be unable to go to work...for a very long time.
Picking oakum and sewing mailbags? Would that count as work?
Or do they do less useful stuff now?
There is a wonderful story told of Horatio Bottomley, the infamous Liberal MP and swindler, who after he was finally put away was visited in prison by a friend who was a former minister and had special privileges.
He found Bottomley at work on a mail bag.
'Ah, Horatio, are you sewing?' asked this Henry Morton Stanley style intellectual.
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
The EU was always going to decline as a source of immigration, Brexit or no Brexit. The period between 2004 and 2016 was anomalous, not the norm.
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
We always had control over non-EU immigration.
For some values of the word control. The government has always had the authority to control non-EU immigration. Whether and how any control has been exercised are up for debate.
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
An article which is 2 years old. And says nothing about Danish policy other than they have the right to refuse asylum claims. Which is exactly what I posted above.
An article more than 4 years old. Did you read past the headline? They are bulldozing ghettoes to rebuild and encourage integration. We do the exact same thing here when money is available- bulldoze tatty and deprived neighbourhoods and build new houses. Where I used to live in Stockton was exactly that. The new build homes being smashed over the weekend another example.
As I asked William, what is the point you are making? You said “Denmark”. This is Denmark. Do you support their policies of letting asylum seekers work and investing to integrate them into society?
Or was “Denmark” code for “Rwanda”. Which isn’t something they do. As you have had pointed out endlessly when you were the last person left supporting the Tory Rwanda crayon drawing.
Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.
Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.
It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
Cycle Parking.
Where is it?
If urban, there may be a list for people who want cycle hangars held by the Council.
If it is newbuild flat, there should be a requirement for cycle storage in the Planning Permission, perhaps as a Planning Condition. If that or similar exists, they can all ask the Council to enforce it as long as it is within X years.
My plan B would be a folder or e-folder.
Or if he has a parking space, he could SORN a van he puts there, and store his cycle in it. That's one tactic that is sometimes mentioned in connection with front curtilege parking spaces being Permitted Development, whilst a cycle locker needs Planning Permission.
Bikes increasingly being ebikes may be a problem as they run slap bang into the new fire safety regulations for flats after Grenfell. SORNing a van seems overkill, and a build it and they will come attitude to lockable cycle shelters has led to one near here that in the past two years, I've never seen house more than one bike. I can't guarantee it is not always the same one whose owner has died.
The fires one is I think to do with an unregulated battery supply chain - especially cheap and dangerous batteries from China via Ali Express or Ebay, and the previous Govt's failure to regulate. They would spend time on "dangerous cycling" for political reasons, but ignored something that was material in many times more deaths.
Brompton Bicycle reported to Parliament last spring that they have sold 50k->100k e-cycles, and never had a single report of a fire.
There was a consultation in 23-24 about cycle storage as permitted development, but the proposed sizes were smaller than adapted cycles or mobility scooters needed (responses were made), but I think the Election cut it off.
On the hangars, it sounds as though the Council need to run their scheme more effectively.
On hangars etc, I see it as a basic matter of equality. If we are to allow storage of private transport in the public realm, then it should be the same for motors, cycles, mobility scooters and all the rest, where needed. I'd expect schemes to pay for themselves in terms of road space used, and perhaps bias it towards more efficient forms of transport. I'd call it that in 5-8 years more integrated residents' parking schemes will be the norm,
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
The EU was always going to decline as a source of immigration, Brexit or no Brexit. The period between 2004 and 2016 was anomalous, not the norm.
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
We always had control over non-EU immigration.
It's so tedious to keep relitigating the EU referendum. You want to make Brexit the source of all our woes but it just isn't true.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
The rioters will all be dole scroungers anyway (would anyone want to employ these people?) so a completely silly notion.
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
I suspect the bit of Denmark some people want is the high tax, high spend part, but not the stuff like this.
It was obvious circa 2014 that it would end up like this. The elite just collectively lost its mind completely over refugees. The unthinking belief in progressivism "we can do it!":
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
An article which is 2 years old. And says nothing about Danish policy other than they have the right to refuse asylum claims. Which is exactly what I posted above.
What’s your point again?
My point is that you are idealising something you don't understand. If a British government really copied Denmark's policies you would be posting explitive-laden rants about them on here.
You see how I have just posted their polices and said there is a lot of good ideas here? You see where I have not advocated open door policies and demanded that we create processing centres here?
That you can just post that comment demonstrates that you don’t read. Or think.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
Other way round. If they do go to work, they won't be free to riot during the week. This may be a factor in greater weekend disturbances.
I suspect any rioters arrested will be unable to go to work...for a very long time.
That would be a stupid overreaction by the state and the lawyers that run it. A few days should be the sentence, but imposed immediately, not weeks or even months later. There has been a lamentable lack of urgency from the government. Even calling a symbolic Cobra meeting was delayed.
Away from the turmoil across global equities, the actual economy seems to be doing pretty well, I think we're on course for 0.6% growth in Q2. The index for July has just come in above expectations and shows growth of ~0.1-0.2% for the month, I think we could go into a very shallow single quarter downturn in Q4 or avoid it altogether and get around 1.5-1.7% growth for the year.
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
An article which is 2 years old. And says nothing about Danish policy other than they have the right to refuse asylum claims. Which is exactly what I posted above.
An article more than 4 years old. Did you read past the headline? They are bulldozing ghettoes to rebuild and encourage integration. We do the exact same thing here when money is available- bulldoze tatty and deprived neighbourhoods and build new houses. Where I used to live in Stockton was exactly that. The new build homes being smashed over the weekend another example.
As I asked William, what is the point you are making? You said “Denmark”. This is Denmark. Do you support their policies of letting asylum seekers work and investing to integrate them into society?
Or was “Denmark” code for “Rwanda”. Which isn’t something they do. As you have had pointed out endlessly when you were the last person left supporting the Tory Rwanda crayon drawing.
FTSE 100 off 2% in early trading, which almost doesn’t seem too bad given everything else that’s going on.
The sell off is largely focussed around AI and the industries that feed into it or are expected to show huge benefits from it. The FTSE100 doesn't really have any of these beyond the standard AI use case of "maybe we can increase productivity a bit", there's certainly no Nvidia, Palantir or Microsoft down 6.5%, 6.7% and 4% in pre-market trading respectively.
On topic.
Small caps have been underperforming for some time. The indices have only been held up by Mag7 which has masked how poor things really are under the hood.
On Biden: federal debt has grown more than nominal GDP. And even those gdp numbers are flattered at per capita levels by illegal immigration. His jobs miracle is a scam.
While US base rates may appear as though they’ve normalised, the economy has still been artificially pumped because with the other hand, the Fed has been feeding the liquidity frenzy more than ever. The Bank Term Funding Programme in 2023 was a far bigger bail out than 2008 and represented the back door recapitalisation of the entire US banking sector (less JP Morgan) through inflation.
So we’re now in a position where we have a fiscal deficit at scarcely conceivable levels when there is full employment. And little place left for the Fed to run. Contrary to what David says, they were actually flexing their muscles to raise again this month (60% likelihood at Friday’s close), because they are still seeing underlying inflation pressure (no wonder given the fiscal boom). Markets now flipped to a 60% chance of a cut next week. Panic much?
Stagflation here we come. Unless you think we are in the cusp of a technological breakthrough through AI and robotics. Which I personally believe we are, but that’s going to cause its own societal and economic problems.
Take away the element of Russia/Ukraine, which is seen as a remote (ie European) problem for many Americans, it shouldn’t be hard to see why a rational US voter would vote for Trump given the choice of continuity Biden or a reset. European revulsion of Trump as a person clouds better judgement on this elections odds.
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
The EU was always going to decline as a source of immigration, Brexit or no Brexit. The period between 2004 and 2016 was anomalous, not the norm.
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
We always had control over non-EU immigration.
It's so tedious to keep relitigating the EU referendum. You want to make Brexit the source of all our woes but it just isn't true.
This is the problem with jumping in on a conversation halfway through. I made my observations on Denmark because @Leon suggested we should emulate the Danes. I then responded to a question you asked. At no point did I seek to relitigate Brexit or to blame it for all our ills. But, as I say below, people will believe what they want to believe.
One overlooked and undesirable side effect of the riots will be the inevitable rise of Islamic gangs, whether religious, criminal or both, as "protectors" of ordinary Muslims.
Historically this has always been a pattern in the development of protection rackets. Start out by protecting the community against genuine threats; move on to charging the community for protection from outside threats; then become parasites in a full-blown protection racket.
I would have surprised myself a year ago to suggest Patel as the best candidate for the Conservative Party leader. She is the only serious politician amongst the candidates for a party that has been deeply unserious for years.
Why did Japanese stock market tumble so much over night? Is it weighted towards AI stocks?
Lots of companies in the supply chain. Plus Japan is very sensitive to a US downturn because domestic demand has been pretty poor for the last 30 years.
The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.
In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.
Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
People will believe what they want to believe.
Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!
You literally said it upthread.
Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
I literally said this:
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
They have explicit policies aimed at limiting the scale of "non-Western" communities. Are you saying you would be happy with that as long as Europeans could move freely?
We already have significant non-Western communities. Given that our economy is predicated on immigration, it always seemed silly to me to substitute immigration from countries that are similar to the UK for immigration from countries that are very different - especially as we enjoyed reciprocal benefits. But we are where we are.
The EU was always going to decline as a source of immigration, Brexit or no Brexit. The period between 2004 and 2016 was anomalous, not the norm.
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
We always had control over non-EU immigration.
For some values of the word control. The government has always had the authority to control non-EU immigration. Whether and how any control has been exercised are up for debate.
Absolutely.
In the end, it all boils down to the fact that we have built the UK economy on high levels of immigration. We can absolutely bring this to a halt - but it would be nice to hear those politicians who advocate it spelling out to the electorate what it will entail. I am not convinced that Boris Johnson opened the floodgates to non-EU immigration because he wanted the rub diversity in the noses of the right. He did it because he did not like what the alternative would lead to.
Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.
I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.
Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.
That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.
But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
So if you destroy the 'ethnic ghettoes' of this country where do their inhabitants move to ?
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
At the present rates of immigration they are coming anyway
And you want even more by supporting FoM with the EU.
Do you know where the people in the 'ethnic ghetto' in Harehills originated ?
I seem to remember reading that is was 'white people' who burned the bus in Harehills.
Iustin Dobre, 37, of Clifton Mount, Harehills, was on Saturday charged with arson and violent disorder. The other five people arrested on suspicion of violent disorder remain in police custody.
Iustin Dobre, not quite a name to go with Len, Fred, Brian, Geoff and Ray.
Roma, and Romanians, are White people too. In an old man yelling at cloud rant, I might deplore the general trend to treat foreigners in general as non-White.
Away from the turmoil across global equities, the actual economy seems to be doing pretty well, I think we're on course for 0.6% growth in Q2. The index for July has just come in above expectations and shows growth of ~0.1-0.2% for the month, I think we could go into a very shallow single quarter downturn in Q4 or avoid it altogether and get around 1.5-1.7% growth for the year.
This and the interest rate trajectory do suggest the fundamentals for both UK midcap equities and GBP are reasonable. UK equities have underperformed the rest of the world (particularly the US) for so long, and so deeply, that we are due a bit of a "correction" upwards. That may take the form of our market dropping less sharply than others and catching up with them on the way down, but nevertheless it's worth watching. I've been underweight on UK equity for years but am tempted to make some adjustments.
This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.
But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
Would they ?
Looking at what the GOP now is, it's unclear that the nominee would have been someone 'normal' like Haley.
If the shooter had caught Trump the nominee would be either Ramaswamy or Desantis I think.
Ramaswamy certainly ticks the boxes on election denialism, and allied conspiracy theories. Definitely an opinionated loon - and potential Nerd Reich guy - but has more business sense (and coherence) than Trump.
DeSantis is more like Trump, I think, in that he's a grifter interested in power. I get the sense that his ideological commitments are a result of following the new party orthodoxy, rather than from conviction ?
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
The rioters will all be dole scroungers anyway (would anyone want to employ these people?) so a completely silly notion.
It's not so much the rioters, as those who feel some support for them, but won't actually do anything violent. That could be a sizeable number. I remember during the Troubles (there's that comparison again) it was estimated that at any one time the IRA only had about 2000 or so fighters. BUT, crucially, they had the tacit support of at least 200,000 Catholics in Norn, people prepared to donate, or to look away at the right time, etc
If 500,000 people agree with the sentiments of the rioters, but decry the violence, and they all decided to stop work, that would be big (and way cleverer and less repulsive than actual violence)
On the same day as 'patriotic Brits' looted a Shoezone in the grand city of Kingston upon Hull, a 15 year old child of immigrants became Britain's youngest ever chess grandmaster just down the road.
A 15-year-old chess prodigy has become the youngest British grandmaster.
Shreyas Royal achieved the prestigious title at the British Chess Championships in Hull on Sunday, breaking David Howell’s UK record, at the age of 16, in 2007.
In 2018, Shreyas’s family faced a battle to remain in the country, after Singh’s work visa expired and his son faced having to leave the country he had lived in since he was three.
The family would have had to return to India and they were told there could be no exception unless Singh secured a job paying over £120,000. They appealed to the Home Office on the grounds that Shreyas was a national asset who could become England’s first world chess champion, but were declined.
The chancellor Rachel Reeves, a former junior chess champion and then a Labour MP, and Matthew Pennycook, the MP for Greenwich and Woolwich, where Shreyas lived, wrote to two cabinet ministers at the time urging them to let the boy stay.
The Home Office reconsidered the case and granted Singh a visa for skilled workers and leave to remain. The family are now British citizens.
I would have surprised myself a year ago to suggest Patel as the best candidate for the Conservative Party leader. She is the only serious politician amongst the candidates for a party that has been deeply unserious for years.
No-one cares what I think of course.
Boris is said to back Priti, although the man has form for promising support to all and any. Priti has two main obstacles. She did not go to Oxbridge which offends the PPE snobs in the media, and Rwanda.
There’s a proposal on TwiX that all those outraged.by southport/asylum/boats should stop going into work. A kind of general strike of the downtrodden
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
And everyone who isn't white in the NHS/social care could do the same.
Why did Japanese stock market tumble so much over night? Is it weighted towards AI stocks?
Lots of companies in the supply chain. Plus Japan is very sensitive to a US downturn because domestic demand has been pretty poor for the last 30 years.
Pretty credible theories that much of US tech boom was being funded by Japan carry trade. Yen was crashing, bank of Japan tried intervening directly in currency markets but has now raised rates twice to arrest currency collapse and the resultant inflation. On cue, bank stocks and now the whole Japanese equity market collapsing.
Comments
As if they would be able to find their way to a brewery.
"What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds."
Again, thank-you for proving my point so exquisitely.
Looking at what the GOP now is, it's unclear that the nominee would have been someone 'normal' like Haley.
https://x.com/rossmccaff/status/1820365498703327511?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Southam is one of the most measured posters on here.
Since then not a single gold for GB, and Germany now up to 6 after beating us soundly in the triathlon relay.
When I am looking at AI I guess my commentary is more skewed towards the larger companies riding the wave of it as they form such a large part of the market. I do not know sufficient about the smaller companies and would guess of these only a small percentage will survive.
The inequality, unaffordability and congestion of London and the waitrose belt ?
The reality is opportunities have never been better in northern England than they are now.
There is both affordable housing and plentiful jobs - all people require is a useful skillset.
And to get a useful skillset the big determinant is whether people want to make the effort to acquire one, because it does take effort. Governments can hand out educational certificates like confetti but they cannot hand out skillsets.
Reform voters are not generally the poor and the dispossessed slaving away on minimum wage jobs.
The most Reform-supporting voter group is 'C2', the skilled working class - e.g. plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters.
These are broadly middle income jobs.
Reform support is actually significantly lower among DEs, which is where many of the minimum wage occupations are found.
What's more, most of this support is among the 55+.
Turnout among DEs was just 22% among 18-34s and 42% among 35-45s, according to Ipsos. Pitifully low.
So among DEs under 55, according to Ipsos, about 33% turned out. And of these, about 16% voted Reform.
...That means about *5%* of people under 55 in the lowest social class voted for Reform.
Not exactly an outcry of the dispossessed, is it?
https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1820248864319844628
I've no idea if it is true or not and I don't really care enough to check but it sounds plausible.
Asking for a Prime Minister...
I'm not sure Yorkshire Dales villages want tens of thousands of Muslims to be relocated there.
For existing tenements, the storage put in by my council are massively over-subscribed, and expensive enough for Matt's idea of parking a van and selling the space inside to actually make sense!
"This is war".
Never mind Twitter and its failure to act, on that post alone he could probably quire easily be taken on for incitement.
Some fund managers will have good years, but very few will have a better decade than a basic S&P 500 tracker, once you take into account the fees charged by the fund managers.
https://x.com/Dorianlynskey/status/1820124183155917152
I think there a few great initiatives we could lift from the Danes. Taking our international quota of refugees. Allowing refugees to work. Creating asylum centres to house and feed refugees so that they are safe and protected from violent mobs. A scheme to fund refuge outside Europe *if and when their claim is refused having first been housed in and assessed by Denmark*
Good ideas worthy of discussion. Though I suspect the "Denmark" reference meant "send them to Rwanda" which is not what Denmark does.
There are challenges to "Denmark". Building refuge centres is something that gets attacked by NIMBY MPs and then by violent mobs. Allowing refugees to work is a great idea - so many skilled and talented people come as refugees. Won't be popular with the "Dey Terk Er Jerbs" mentality. And processing claims here? Radical.
And there's a lot of them well spread out across the country. Reform would win a lot of seats if this group voted reform en masse.
Actual tests generally seem to show it is true. With the exception of things like Warren Buffet’s pretty simple and logical rules for investing.
Do you know where the people in the 'ethnic ghetto' in Harehills originated ?
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fire-safety-legislation-guidance-for-those-with-legal-duties
You are also talking as if you are unaware of the fact that non-EU immigration massively outstripped EU immigration even during that period.
‘Zero asylum seekers’: Denmark forces refugees to return to Syria
Its an interesting idea and vastly preferable to smashing up your own town, beating up foreign types and attempting murder in hotels
But would it work?! Depends on the numbers
If it’s just 1000 people no. If they can get 10,000 people maybe. 100,000 (highly doubtful) would probably have a significant impact especially if it’s in particular industries
I’m wondering if it would be legal. Ironically starmer is looking at loosening the laws on strikes because of course he is
What’s your point again?
The bad news of course is that grinding poverty and deprivation gets worse in these communities. But as I have been assured that poverty isn’t the issue I would have to assume that won’t make a difference…
Iustin Dobre, 37, of Clifton Mount, Harehills, was on Saturday charged with arson and violent disorder. The other five people arrested on suspicion of violent disorder remain in police custody.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/leeds-riots-cause-harehills-violence-roma-community-news-b2583202.html
Iustin Dobre, not quite a name to go with Len, Fred, Brian, Geoff and Ray.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/how-denmarks-ghetto-list-is-ripping-apart-migrant-communities
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1820372750638239989
* Of course a life stuck within a hotel with little money, restricted movement and no opportunity for legal work is not actually pleasant at all, but it does create resentment.
Two tier keir, Keir taking the knee, Keir condemning Trump for trying to stop the riots in America in 2020, etc
Historically this has always been a pattern in the development of protection rackets. Start out by protecting the community against genuine threats; move on to charging the community for protection from outside threats; then become parasites in a full-blown protection racket.
Or do they do less useful stuff now?
There is a wonderful story told of Horatio Bottomley, the infamous Liberal MP and swindler, who after he was finally put away was visited in prison by a friend who was a former minister and had special privileges.
He found Bottomley at work on a mail bag.
'Ah, Horatio, are you sewing?' asked this Henry Morton Stanley style intellectual.
'No,' came the reply. 'Reaping.'
As I asked William, what is the point you are making? You said “Denmark”. This is Denmark. Do you support their policies of letting asylum seekers work and investing to integrate them into society?
Or was “Denmark” code for “Rwanda”. Which isn’t something they do. As you have had pointed out endlessly when you were the last person left supporting the Tory Rwanda crayon drawing.
Brompton Bicycle reported to Parliament last spring that they have sold 50k->100k e-cycles, and never had a single report of a fire.
There was a consultation in 23-24 about cycle storage as permitted development, but the proposed sizes were smaller than adapted cycles or mobility scooters needed (responses were made), but I think the Election cut it off.
On the hangars, it sounds as though the Council need to run their scheme more effectively.
On hangars etc, I see it as a basic matter of equality. If we are to allow storage of private transport in the public realm, then it should be the same for motors, cycles, mobility scooters and all the rest, where needed. I'd expect schemes to pay for themselves in terms of road space used, and perhaps bias it towards more efficient forms of transport. I'd call it that in 5-8 years more integrated residents' parking schemes will be the norm,
The unthinking belief in progressivism "we can do it!":
That you can just post that comment demonstrates that you don’t read. Or think.
An article from << checks notes >> six weeks ago
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/26/justice-must-prevail-against-denmarks-ghetto-laws
As @williamglenn correctly notes, you haven't got a clue what you're talking about and now you're just flailing. Embarrassing
Small caps have been underperforming for some time. The indices have only been held up by Mag7 which has masked how poor things really are under the hood.
On Biden: federal debt has grown more than nominal GDP. And even those gdp numbers are flattered at per capita levels by illegal immigration. His jobs miracle is a scam.
While US base rates may appear as though they’ve normalised, the economy has still been artificially pumped because with the other hand, the Fed has been feeding the liquidity frenzy more than ever. The Bank Term Funding Programme in 2023 was a far bigger bail out than 2008 and represented the back door recapitalisation of the entire US banking sector (less JP Morgan) through inflation.
So we’re now in a position where we have a fiscal deficit at scarcely conceivable levels when there is full employment. And little place left for the Fed to run. Contrary to what David says, they were actually flexing their muscles to raise again this month (60% likelihood at Friday’s close), because they are still seeing underlying inflation pressure (no wonder given the fiscal boom). Markets now flipped to a 60% chance of a cut next week. Panic much?
Stagflation here we come. Unless you think we are in the cusp of a technological breakthrough through AI and robotics. Which I personally believe we are, but that’s going to cause its own societal and economic problems.
Take away the element of Russia/Ukraine, which is seen as a remote (ie European) problem for many Americans, it shouldn’t be hard to see why a rational US voter would vote for Trump given the choice of continuity Biden or a reset. European revulsion of Trump as a person clouds better judgement on this elections odds.
No-one cares what I think of course.
In the end, it all boils down to the fact that we have built the UK economy on high levels of immigration. We can absolutely bring this to a halt - but it would be nice to hear those politicians who advocate it spelling out to the electorate what it will entail. I am not convinced that Boris Johnson opened the floodgates to non-EU immigration because he wanted the rub diversity in the noses of the right. He did it because he did not like what the alternative would lead to.
Making any man who pays a prostitute for sex sign the Sex Offenders Register.
DeSantis is more like Trump, I think, in that he's a grifter interested in power. I get the sense that his ideological commitments are a result of following the new party orthodoxy, rather than from conviction ?
If 500,000 people agree with the sentiments of the rioters, but decry the violence, and they all decided to stop work, that would be big (and way cleverer and less repulsive than actual violence)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/aug/05/boy-15-shreyas-royal-becomes-youngest-british-chess-grandmaster
Shreyas Royal achieved the prestigious title at the British Chess Championships in Hull on Sunday, breaking David Howell’s UK record, at the age of 16, in 2007.
In 2018, Shreyas’s family faced a battle to remain in the country, after Singh’s work visa expired and his son faced having to leave the country he had lived in since he was three.
The family would have had to return to India and they were told there could be no exception unless Singh secured a job paying over £120,000. They appealed to the Home Office on the grounds that Shreyas was a national asset who could become England’s first world chess champion, but were declined.
The chancellor Rachel Reeves, a former junior chess champion and then a Labour MP, and Matthew Pennycook, the MP for Greenwich and Woolwich, where Shreyas lived, wrote to two cabinet ministers at the time urging them to let the boy stay.
The Home Office reconsidered the case and granted Singh a visa for skilled workers and leave to remain. The family are now British citizens.