Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

It’s the economy, stupid – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,159
edited August 26 in General
It’s the economy, stupid – politicalbetting.com

pic.twitter.com/kbkm9lP6EC

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    Trump won two of the three states you quote polling for though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Second!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    If Haley was Republican candidate the fact many swing voters feel the economy is not great in terms of interest rates for example and US unemployment at 4% would likely
    ensure her victory. As it is though Trump still turns off many Independents some of whom will still therefore vote for Harris.

    In 2020 though Trump still won Iowa and Florida even if Biden won Pennsylvania
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,862
    FPT and bang on-topic.
    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Well the Nikkei just closed down 12.4% on the day, Monday is going to be a wild ride on the global markets.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,620
    Certainly a recession or even a stock market correction will not help the Democrats

    The return to historically normal interest rates is not going to be comfortable for many people or businesses, and true pretty much across the globe. Since 2008 we have got very used to interest rates so low that borrowing was essentially free. It isn't any more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    HYUFD said:

    If Haley was Republican candidate the fact many swing voters feel the economy is not great in terms of interest rates for example and US unemployment at 4% would likely
    ensure her victory. As it is though Trump still turns off many Independents some of whom will still therefore vote for Harris.

    In 2020 though Trump still won Iowa and Florida even if Biden won Pennsylvania

    It would be nice to think that Republicans would ask themselves that question if they lose.

    'How, when voters were not happy about the economy and liked our policies better, did we still manage to lose?

    Could it have anything to do with putting forward a 78 year old criminal who had lost the previous election and was clearly off his head as our candidate?

    If so, should we put somebody sane and middle aged forward next time and see if that makes a difference?'

    Unfortunately, they seem too far gone for that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,047
    Former GOP Lt. Of Georgia GeoffDuncanGA on Donald Trump:

    “He is a felon thug who walks down the street and throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists, Like John McCain…The Republican party is content sitting across the street watching it happen not calling him out not jumping into that fight saying you are wrong for us ."

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820129273946009641
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    FPT and bang on-topic.

    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
    The linked article doesn't say markets think the US is headed for recession.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,620
    Sandpit said:

    Well the Nikkei just closed down 12.4% on the day, Monday is going to be a wild ride on the global markets.

    I thought the FTSE a bit toppy earlier in the year so sold a quarter of my SIPP to cash. I did wonder if that was a mistake, but might do quite well. Markets generally over react so could be some bargains to be had.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    Nigelb said:

    Former GOP Lt. Of Georgia GeoffDuncanGA on Donald Trump:

    “He is a felon thug who walks down the street and throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists, Like John McCain…The Republican party is content sitting across the street watching it happen not calling him out not jumping into that fight saying you are wrong for us ."

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820129273946009641

    Interesting that he's making the same point I did about how far gone the Republicans are and how difficult it will be to pull them back into the mainstream.

    Could the man with terrible hair see them go the way of the Whigs?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    There should be a German compound noun for that melancholy moment, after a month in the sunny south, when you take off the shorts, and put on your proper strides, for a return to the north

    I suggest: Sonnenurlaubshosenwehmut

    I have got Sonnenurlaubshosenwehmut
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Former GOP Lt. Of Georgia GeoffDuncanGA on Donald Trump:

    “He is a felon thug who walks down the street and throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists, Like John McCain…The Republican party is content sitting across the street watching it happen not calling him out not jumping into that fight saying you are wrong for us ."

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820129273946009641

    Interesting that he's making the same point I did about how far gone the Republicans are and how difficult it will be to pull them back into the mainstream.

    Could the man with terrible hair see them go the way of the Whigs?
    Just over a decade ago the Republicans nominated centrists McCain and Romney but both lost. It was Trump's surprise win in 2016 that ensured his grip on the current Republican party and it would likely take defeat for him and Vance in November and say DeSantis in 2028 for more moderate Republicans to be viable again as nominee for President.

    The Whigs didn't disappear, indeed most of the Northern Whigs merged into the Republican Party. At the time it was the Democrats under Andrew Jackson who were more Trump like
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,047

    FPT and bang on-topic.

    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
    The linked article doesn't say markets think the US is headed for recession.
    A Fed rate cut is pretty likely this month.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,549
    Leon said:

    There should be a German compound noun for that melancholy moment, after a month in the sunny south, when you take off the shorts, and put on your proper strides, for a return to the north

    I suggest: Sonnenurlaubshosenwehmut

    I have got Sonnenurlaubshosenwehmut

    What could possibly be meloncholy about returning to a land of grey skies, rising taxes and flaming Travel Lodges?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,047
    Interesting argument.

    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-68b
    ...Richard Hanania is a pundit whose work I generally do not like. His typical analysis relies heavily on racial and gender stereotypes, and he gets a lot of stuff wrong. But ever since a major expose thrust him into the limelight last year, Hanania’s takes have at least, occasionally been more measured and reasonable. And I must give credit where credit is due here, because I think that he had a very good take on the recent “White Women for Kamala” and “White Dudes for Harris” events.

    Basically, Hanania argues that after a decade of singling White people out for collective castigation, the progressive movement is accepting White people as just another racial interest group worthy of inclusion in the coalition:

    One thing right-wingers love is to complain that you can only have affinity groups for blacks and other minorities…Along comes the Kamala campaign and says it’s ok to be white. That is, as long as you’re a good person, which means supporting reproductive freedom, not being “weird,” and voting Democrat. We’re all in this together.

    It seems “woke” on the surface, but it’s actually a sign that liberals are moving away from woke...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,862

    FPT and bang on-topic.

    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
    The linked article doesn't say markets think the US is headed for recession.
    Yes it does, and in any case the fall is the point even if there is no recession.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Jeez, how dirty is that water they are doing the triathlon mixed relay?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    FPT and bang on-topic.

    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
    The linked article doesn't say markets think the US is headed for recession.
    Yes it does, and in any case the fall is the point even if there is no recession.
    No, it says they fear there might be, which is a different thing.

    I don't mean that to disagree with your point, I just think it's bad to amplify wrong information like the comment you were quoting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,047
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Former GOP Lt. Of Georgia GeoffDuncanGA on Donald Trump:

    “He is a felon thug who walks down the street and throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists, Like John McCain…The Republican party is content sitting across the street watching it happen not calling him out not jumping into that fight saying you are wrong for us ."

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820129273946009641

    Interesting that he's making the same point I did about how far gone the Republicans are and how difficult it will be to pull them back into the mainstream.

    Could the man with terrible hair see them go the way of the Whigs?
    Trump is a grifting narcissist with no real beliefs, but the party he has created behind him is looking increasingly like a religious movement which is pushing for state integralism.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integralism

    That's completely antithetical to the US constitutional and political tradition, but it's undeniably a central element of current GOP doctrine. And epitomised by the selection of Vance as VP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    Leon said:

    There should be a German compound noun for that melancholy moment, after a month in the sunny south, when you take off the shorts, and put on your proper strides, for a return to the north

    I suggest: Sonnenurlaubshosenwehmut

    I have got Sonnenurlaubshosenwehmut

    What could possibly be meloncholy about returning to a land of grey skies, rising taxes and flaming Travel Lodges?
    I know, I don't understand why I'm not aching to get home, in time for the next brutal race riot, before the autumn rains extinguish them. If I'm lucky I might actually see a whole town go up
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    How sad on a morning of bad news. One of the greats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    Charge pensioners national insurance to help pay for social care, Reeves told

    Sir Andrew Dilnot says another review of care funding will delay finding a solution

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/04/charge-pensioners-national-insurance-help-pay-social-care/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,126
    edited August 5
    Good morning everyone.

    I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.

    An example of believing what they are told most loudly?

    On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    WTF? He can't have been much over 50, surely?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,018
    Cricketer Graham Thorpe has died aged 55
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Nigelb said:

    FPT and bang on-topic.

    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
    The linked article doesn't say markets think the US is headed for recession.
    A Fed rate cut is pretty likely this month.
    Almost inevitable, it might even by 0.5%. The Fed doesn't like mucking about with interest rates too close to an election because it challenges their neutral stance but the sharp falls in inflation, like here, more than justify the move, they almost demand it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Former GOP Lt. Of Georgia GeoffDuncanGA on Donald Trump:

    “He is a felon thug who walks down the street and throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists, Like John McCain…The Republican party is content sitting across the street watching it happen not calling him out not jumping into that fight saying you are wrong for us ."

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1820129273946009641

    Interesting that he's making the same point I did about how far gone the Republicans are and how difficult it will be to pull them back into the mainstream.

    Could the man with terrible hair see them go the way of the Whigs?
    Just over a decade ago the Republicans nominated centrists McCain and Romney but both lost. It was Trump's surprise win in 2016 that ensured his grip on the current Republican party and it would likely take defeat for him and Vance in November and say DeSantis in 2028 for more moderate Republicans to be viable again as nominee for President.

    The Whigs didn't disappear, indeed most of the Northern Whigs merged into the Republican Party. At the time it was the Democrats under Andrew Jackson who were more Trump like
    I agree with your first paragraph. Indeed, I've said as much before.

    I'm disappointed you missed the awesome and subtle pun in the second paragraph.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,126

    Jeez, how dirty is that water they are doing the triathlon mixed relay?

    How dare you !

    It's the cleaned up, washed out, filtered Seine.

    The have to have a shower before they get *in* to make sure they don't pollute it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    ydoethur said:

    WTF? He can't have been much over 50, surely?
    55.

    He had been ill for some time, this is from 2022.

    https://www.thepca.co.uk/press-release/pca-statement-graham-thorpe/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Cricketer Graham Thorpe has died aged 55

    Oh, wow - that is horrible, shocking news. So young. He was a very fine player. I thought he should have bene in our 2005 team ahead of Ian Bell.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Jonathan said:

    How sad on a morning of bad news. One of the greats.
    Cricketers often seem to die young, or maybe that is perception. Certainly there is evidence they are more prone to suicide (I have no idea if this is the case with Graham Thorpe: RIP)

    "Statistic’s from David Friths’ (2001) book ‘Silence of the Heart: Cricket Suicides’
    indicates cricket players are almost twice as likely as the average male to commit
    suicide, and furthermore have a higher rate of suicide than participants of any other
    sports"

    https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/315057/shaun mcnee.pdf;jsessionid=82F80332405A234CF95B0104362FAF8A?sequence=6
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    People will believe what they want to believe.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Jeez, how dirty is that water they are doing the triathlon mixed relay?

    I've been swimming in a local lake that is, apparently, very clean and safe to swim in (and I trust them on this...). But the water is very cloudy, filled with reeds, and tastes awful.

    'Dirty' looking water isn't always unsafe, and 'clean' looking water not always safe. But in the case of the Seine, I think it's neither clean nor safe.

    Incidentally, I'm not used to wild swimming, and I find it odd how water temperature can appear to change by a few degrees in a few metres, with no obvious reason.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    Do we think parliament will be recalled?

    I do hope not.

    Let ministers get on with it.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    How sad on a morning of bad news. One of the greats.
    Cricketers often seem to die young, or maybe that is perception. Certainly there is evidence they are more prone to suicide (I have no idea if this is the case with Graham Thorpe: RIP)

    "Statistic’s from David Friths’ (2001) book ‘Silence of the Heart: Cricket Suicides’
    indicates cricket players are almost twice as likely as the average male to commit
    suicide, and furthermore have a higher rate of suicide than participants of any other
    sports"

    https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/315057/shaun mcnee.pdf;jsessionid=82F80332405A234CF95B0104362FAF8A?sequence=6

    A game so focused on individual performance within a team format must create incredible mental stress. I am not sure there is any sport more brutal from that perspective. Even in baseball you get a few opportunities to bat in one game, for example. In cricket, it's a maximum of two.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
    Specifics?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.

    An example of believing what they are told most loudly?

    On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?

    The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,126
    boulay said:
    I do like the "deadly crushes on dinghies" line, in a strange way.

    "Why did you jump off the bridge?"
    "I loved a Topper Topaz, but it rejected me."

    Strange morning.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    An (imv) disappointing silver in the swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run competition.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    An (imv) disappointing silver in the swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run competition.

    I fear we are reverting to "plucky brit" status again, settling for silver or bronze. We should have kicked up an unholy fuss about the skeet silver we ended up with.
    I feel for Amber
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
    Specifics?
    Their much higher tax take than the UK.

    More Lego museums.

    First country to legalise same-sex unions.

    Very high rates of cycling.

    No mountains.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    How sad on a morning of bad news. One of the greats.
    Cricketers often seem to die young, or maybe that is perception. Certainly there is evidence they are more prone to suicide (I have no idea if this is the case with Graham Thorpe: RIP)

    "Statistic’s from David Friths’ (2001) book ‘Silence of the Heart: Cricket Suicides’
    indicates cricket players are almost twice as likely as the average male to commit
    suicide, and furthermore have a higher rate of suicide than participants of any other
    sports"

    https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/315057/shaun mcnee.pdf;jsessionid=82F80332405A234CF95B0104362FAF8A?sequence=6

    A game so focused on individual performance within a team format must create incredible mental stress. I am not sure there is any sport more brutal from that perspective. Even in baseball you get a few opportunities to bat in one game, for example. In cricket, it's a maximum of two.

    Perhaps it is that. I've also read an alternative theory. That professional cricket is such a wonderful sport, however stressful, life afterwards becomes unbearably mundane

    I can see some sense in that. Cricket is great fun to play if you're good at it (so I am told, I am not)

    Plus you get the buzz of personal performance AND the amazing thrill of camaraderie. And all of this happens in elegant little grounds in beautiful sunny weather, and if you are a top player your life is one endless summer as you travel the world seeking the sun. And then suddenly, that ends

    Maybe they pay a price for the joys of the truly beautiful game
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    Do we think parliament will be recalled?

    I do hope not.

    Let ministers get on with it.

    This will calm down within a week or so without the government doing very much more than backing the police and upholding the rule of law. Excess attention to it will very probably be counterproductive.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    FTSE down below 8000.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,970
    edited August 5
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    How sad on a morning of bad news. One of the greats.
    Cricketers often seem to die young, or maybe that is perception. Certainly there is evidence they are more prone to suicide (I have no idea if this is the case with Graham Thorpe: RIP)

    "Statistic’s from David Friths’ (2001) book ‘Silence of the Heart: Cricket Suicides’
    indicates cricket players are almost twice as likely as the average male to commit
    suicide, and furthermore have a higher rate of suicide than participants of any other
    sports"

    https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/315057/shaun mcnee.pdf;jsessionid=82F80332405A234CF95B0104362FAF8A?sequence=6

    A game so focused on individual performance within a team format must create incredible mental stress. I am not sure there is any sport more brutal from that perspective. Even in baseball you get a few opportunities to bat in one game, for example. In cricket, it's a maximum of two.

    Perhaps it is that. I've also read an alternative theory. That professional cricket is such a wonderful sport, however stressful, life afterwards becomes unbearably mundane

    I can see some sense in that. Cricket is great fun to play if you're good at it (so I am told, I am not)

    Plus you get the buzz of personal performance AND the amazing thrill of camaraderie. And all of this happens in elegant little grounds in beautiful sunny weather, and if you are a top player your life is one endless summer as you travel the world seeking the sun. And then suddenly, that ends

    Maybe they pay a price for the joys of the truly beautiful game
    It wasn't that long ago that most cricketers had a winter job, even really good players. Now you just chase the sun all around the world playing T20 for millions.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,128
    Moning PB.

    When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    boulay said:
    The implication being they want more boats.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    An (imv) disappointing silver in the swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run-swim-bike-run competition.

    I fear we are reverting to "plucky brit" status again, settling for silver or bronze. We should have kicked up an unholy fuss about the skeet silver we ended up with.
    I feel for Amber
    I don't think any of out four athletes this morning 'settled' for silver; they seemed to give it all 100%. It's just that both Germany and the US were as good. From our perspective, it was a clean race, and no reason to complain. It's just that we were not 'quite' good enough, though the first three to be within a second or two of each other after ninety minutes of racing is quite something.

    Oh, and kudos to the French team. Their first rider was taken out by the New Zealand rider, putting them a minute behind. Yet they ended up fourth.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    People will believe what they want to believe.

    Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,126
    OT:
    Very interesting video by Hiking Vlogger Paul Painswick, touching on questions of land ownership, transparency and access rights.

    Guest appearance by Guy Shrubsole - the ideal name for a hiker.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HZ8J61zC4M

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    DavidL said:

    That's really sad. He wasn't that old, born 8 years after me in fact. Superb batsman and genuinely nice guy.
    Very sad news - far too young
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

    But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Haley was Republican candidate the fact many swing voters feel the economy is not great in terms of interest rates for example and US unemployment at 4% would likely
    ensure her victory. As it is though Trump still turns off many Independents some of whom will still therefore vote for Harris.

    In 2020 though Trump still won Iowa and Florida even if Biden won Pennsylvania

    It would be nice to think that Republicans would ask themselves that question if they lose.

    'How, when voters were not happy about the economy and liked our policies better, did we still manage to lose?

    Could it have anything to do with putting forward a 78 year old criminal who had lost the previous election and was clearly off his head as our candidate?

    If so, should we put somebody sane and middle aged forward next time and see if that makes a difference?'

    Unfortunately, they seem too far gone for that.
    The real problem is that 40%+ of the American voters are on the MAGA train and like it.

    Another term of Donald Fucking Trump is not the end of this.

    One reason I liked Biden was that he put forward a plan to reinvest in American manufacturing and infrastructure. Which was, in part, based on the idea of *really* draining the swamp. Getting rid of the ground conditions for the MAGA pitch.

    That is the kind of positive, liberal and sensible response to idiot populism that I’ve been talking about.

    Admiring there is a problem is not surrendering to populism. Failing to come up with an alternative solution is.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting argument.

    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-68b
    ...Richard Hanania is a pundit whose work I generally do not like. His typical analysis relies heavily on racial and gender stereotypes, and he gets a lot of stuff wrong. But ever since a major expose thrust him into the limelight last year, Hanania’s takes have at least, occasionally been more measured and reasonable. And I must give credit where credit is due here, because I think that he had a very good take on the recent “White Women for Kamala” and “White Dudes for Harris” events.

    Basically, Hanania argues that after a decade of singling White people out for collective castigation, the progressive movement is accepting White people as just another racial interest group worthy of inclusion in the coalition:

    One thing right-wingers love is to complain that you can only have affinity groups for blacks and other minorities…Along comes the Kamala campaign and says it’s ok to be white. That is, as long as you’re a good person, which means supporting reproductive freedom, not being “weird,” and voting Democrat. We’re all in this together.

    It seems “woke” on the surface, but it’s actually a sign that liberals are moving away from woke...

    Bill Clinton did a bit of this in 2016, talking about his pride in his Scots Irish heritage, how that demographic made up the majority of police and firefighters etc. It didn't seem to cut through much but I remember at the time thinking it was a good message to counter Trump's 'American carnage' narrative (which George Bush dubbed 'Weird shit' so Kamala can thank Bush for that!).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
    Class sizes of 15?
    I like it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,970
    edited August 5

    Moning PB.

    When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.

    The social media vortex sucks people in to more and more attention seeking. There is definitely an issue with minor celebs who star fades in midlife and they find social media and then become addicted to the ego boosting of attention. That doesn't mean they all go burn the speed cameras etc.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,862

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    First, there needs to be immediate action to stop the riots, so whoever is reviewing video footage to identify rioters needs to be working round-the-clock with an eye to next day or even same day arrests, followed by short (days rather than years) prison sentences. Use of social media by anyone likely to have an influence, from politicians to footballers, might also be tried.

    Second, in the longer term there needs to be serious action on levelling up, one of the few things Dominic Cummings was right about.

    Third, it must be acknowledged it is not just economics. The immediate trigger was the slaughter of three young girls in Southport. This follows a number of similar crimes against children and young women whether by minorities or the great and good. As Foxy notes, old cases are whirring their way through the courts but paradoxically, these headlines can add to the impression the crimes are current.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,047
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT and bang on-topic.

    Good for Trump, perhaps, since Americans are more likely than us to have invested in the stock market and notice they are getting poorer.
    The linked article doesn't say markets think the US is headed for recession.
    A Fed rate cut is pretty likely this month.
    Almost inevitable, it might even by 0.5%. The Fed doesn't like mucking about with interest rates too close to an election because it challenges their neutral stance but the sharp falls in inflation, like here, more than justify the move, they almost demand it.
    Not reacting would also count as 'mucking about' with interest rates.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

    But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies

    Fine by me. And all done within the context of Danish membership of the ECHR.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    dixiedean said:

    FTSE down below 8000.

    Its back over 8k now. A year ago is was about 7.5k so we have some way to go before it is down in the year.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    People will believe what they want to believe.

    Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
    It would appear to be a demonstrable fact that leaving the single market and free movement did not solve the mass migration and integration challenges.

    We took back control of our border. Slashed resources and opened the door with nobody left to actually control it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    People will believe what they want to believe.

    Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.

    But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Sad. When England were crap he was one of the few highspots.

    RIP
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

    But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies

    Fine by me. And all done within the context of Danish membership of the ECHR.

    There we are. Sorted. We've just sorted politics. The whole site can move on to different topics, now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,351
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
    Class sizes of 15?
    I like it.
    If Labour want to sort out many of our social ills and also put 90% of the private sector out of business while at the same time going a long way to solving the teacher recruitment crisis that would certainly be one way to do it.

    If parents were guaranteed a class size of no more than 20 in the state sector most of them would have their children out of private schools faster than the DfE can organise a works meeting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    MattW said:

    OT:
    Very interesting video by Hiking Vlogger Paul Painswick, touching on questions of land ownership, transparency and access rights.

    Guest appearance by Guy Shrubsole - the ideal name for a hiker.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HZ8J61zC4M

    Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.

    Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.

    It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Moning PB.

    When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.

    He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    edited August 5
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

    But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
    Strangely the two most racist people I know, and have ever known in real life, are both Danes. Both are otherwise urbane, successful, very well educated but unapologetically racist. I’m no snowflake but some of the content in work related messages is a bit of a shock where they don’t find it remotely inappropriate to use racial epithets and in conversations they are brutally straightforward about anyone who isn’t white.

    Not sure this adds anything to whether the Danish solution is the one, I always have thought it probably is, but an observation all the same.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,970
    Taz said:

    Sad. When England were crap he was one of the few highspots.

    RIP
    Growing up I always used to love watching him and Robin Smith...just checked in what Robin Smith got up to post cricket, he had a mental breakdown....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,114
    On topic:

    This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.

    But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,128

    Moning PB.

    When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.

    He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?

    If Twitter had any sort of moderation he'd be gone.

    His last post I saw yesterday was that "Starmer was supporting the rape of thousands of British girls by immigrant barbarians." He's clearly gone off at the ( very ) deep end.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic:

    This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.

    But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.

    Still value at 2.26
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    People will believe what they want to believe.

    Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.

    But that's just what you want to believe I said. Thank-you for proving my point so perfectly!

    You literally said it upthread.

    Either you're trolling, or you're just not very bright.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,126
    edited August 5

    MattW said:

    OT:
    Very interesting video by Hiking Vlogger Paul Painswick, touching on questions of land ownership, transparency and access rights.

    Guest appearance by Guy Shrubsole - the ideal name for a hiker.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HZ8J61zC4M

    Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.

    Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.

    It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
    Yes - correct. I have a lifelong habit of swapping bits of names around either by mistake or by taking a slight flier, as has been seen on here occasionally.

    When I was 13 I couldn't quite remember who all the Pretenders were so I turned "Perkin Warbeck" into "Marvin Purbeck".

    People need more memorable names !
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
    Class sizes of 15?
    I like it.
    If Labour want to sort out many of our social ills and also put 90% of the private sector out of business while at the same time going a long way to solving the teacher recruitment crisis that would certainly be one way to do it.

    If parents were guaranteed a class size of no more than 20 in the state sector most of them would have their children out of private schools faster than the DfE can organise a works meeting.
    So it would take considerable time then, and millions of emails.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

    But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
    A friend is going through the long process to become Danish. Doing a masters in being a Dane, as he puts it.

    As an Indian, he sees some interesting reactions. Both from native Danes and other immigrants.

    A big driver of the lack of integration of some is the language and the requirements for citizenship. Many immigrants (as he sees it) can’t find the time or money for all the courses/practise

    The driver behind the citizenship requirements was protecting Danish language and culture - a long standing issue.

    So many immigrants learn to speak English off the TV and internet. Since many, many Danes speak fluent, colloquial English and business is often conducted in English, they can get by without doing more. But as a result, they inevitably form a separate society within the country. Equally they see the Danish speakers chatting to each other - a separate group and one that has all the top jobs. Resentment is inevitable.

    The measures @SouthamObserver speaks of are fairly new and contentious. In particular, the politicians who proposed and implemented the attempts to break up “ghettos” in public housing are considered anti-immigrant. Several are quite Faragist.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,693

    Aaron Bastani
    @AaronBastani
    ·
    7h
    This is basically ‘Occupy’ for the far right.

    Particularly interesting since that proved incredibly underwhelming in the longer term.


    Lord Miles
    @real_lord_miles
    ·
    14h
    A lot of the British nationalist group chats I'm in are mass organizing British person to refuses to come to work, bringing the economy to a standstill.

    Thoughts?

    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/1820248871781466313

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,862
    Nigel Farage calls for an end to violence, a recall of Parliament, and blames two-tier policing and immigration (quelle surprise).
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1820347660538204565

    Two-tier Keir could hurt Starmer if it takes off.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.

    An example of believing what they are told most loudly?

    On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?

    The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
    It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.

    They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Moning PB.

    When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.

    He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?

    If Twitter had any sort of moderation he'd be gone.

    His last post I saw yesterday was that "Starmer was supporting the rape of thousands of British girls by immigrant barbarians." He's clearly gone off at the ( very ) deep end.
    PB’s pro-riot squad claim tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of girls. Fox needs to up his rhetoric to compete.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,970
    edited August 5

    Nigel Farage calls for an end to violence, a recall of Parliament, and blames two-tier policing and immigration (quelle surprise).
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1820347660538204565

    Two-tier Keir could hurt Starmer if it takes off.

    The two-tier Keir moniker / hashtag is really being pushed on twitter, how much is Russian bots and how much is organic, who knows.

    Its why I said yesterday I think he made a small misstep by not addressing the counter "protesters" and saying let the police do their job, we are deploying extra resources, we can't have vigilante groups, if you do, you will also feel the full weight of the law.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    People will believe what they want to believe.

    Like you do that rejoining the single market and free movement is a solution to mass migration and integration challenges.
    It would appear to be a demonstrable fact that leaving the single market and free movement did not solve the mass migration and integration challenges.

    We took back control of our border. Slashed resources and opened the door with nobody left to actually control it.
    Because the Conservatives opened it up, and then paid the penalty.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,126
    edited August 5

    MattW said:

    OT:
    Very interesting video by Hiking Vlogger Paul Painswick, touching on questions of land ownership, transparency and access rights.

    Guest appearance by Guy Shrubsole - the ideal name for a hiker.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HZ8J61zC4M

    Paul Whitwick, surely? I'll watch that later thanks; his videos are usually good.

    Incidentally, yesterday I was talking to a chap (in his late thirties) who lives in a newbuild flat. He wants to have a bike, but there is nowhere to store it aside from in his flat, and he lives on the second floor. Residents have been keeping their bikes in a communal area outside, but the owners have told them that they cannot, and the bikes will have to be removed by the end of next month.

    It's fine talking about the need for active travel, but it's pointless if people cannot actually have bikes.
    Cycle Parking.

    Where is it?

    If urban, there may be a list for people who want cycle hangars held by the Council.

    If it is newbuild flat, there should be a requirement for cycle storage in the Planning Permission, perhaps as a Planning Condition. If that or similar exists, they can all ask the Council to enforce it as long as it is within X years.

    My plan B would be a folder or e-folder.

    Or if he has a parking space, he could SORN a van he puts there, and store his cycle in it. That's one tactic that is sometimes mentioned in connection with front curtilege parking spaces being Permitted Development, whilst a cycle locker needs Planning Permission.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark
    Class sizes of 15?
    I like it.
    If Labour want to sort out many of our social ills and also put 90% of the private sector out of business while at the same time going a long way to solving the teacher recruitment crisis that would certainly be one way to do it.

    If parents were guaranteed a class size of no more than 20 in the state sector most of them would have their children out of private schools faster than the DfE can organise a works meeting.
    “ ….the DfE can organise a works meeting”

    You are claiming that the DfE could organise a piss up in a brewery?

    Right

    @SiteAdmins It looks certain @ydoethur has been kidnapped by OFSTED and is being held in a cellar somewhere. This is obviously a secret message to alert us.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Good morning, everyone.

    In the year 1381 there was some disgruntlement, which included the murder of various Flemish people in London as they were deemed to be an economic threat by some of those involved in the short-lived uprising.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Its the Economy Stupid is also the key driver as to why people are rioting. The migrants are the scapegoats. Why do people want the migrants gone? Because they are poor and think the migrants are to blame.

    I am open to suggestions from our more aggressive right wing commentators as to the specific actions that Cooper and the government should action this morning to stop this.

    Specifics. "We shouldn't start here" isn't specific.

    Copy Denmark

    Rejoin the Single Market. Let's do it!

    Mate, I've said it again and I'll say it 100 times, I personally have no problem with the SM or FoM. That is not why I voted Leave

    But you are backing a solution that almost all those who are rioting - and the far-right politicians and influencers egging them on - would oppose.

    That said, I am with you on Denmark - a high tax, redistributive society with a strong welfare state inside the single market that also, coincidentally or not, is currently home to Europe's most valuable company. What Denmark cannot do, though, is control immigration. Just certain kinds.

    But they are ruthless on asylum and they destroy ethnic ghettoes. And they seem to have some of the happiest people on earth and suffer much less ethnic friction than very similar Sweden. We can do a swap, you accept their ghetto and asylum policies and I will accept their tax and welfare policies
    They're probably linked: small countries with high levels of social affinity and control can (and do) do this.

    I suspect it'd be much harder here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,862

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic:

    This is why, if the Republican candidate was anyone other than Trump, they would be walking this election.

    But Trump is utterly loathed by about 40% of the electorate (and not without good reason), which gives Ms Harris an excellent shot at winning the election.

    Still value at 2.26
    The market will not be settled before the election on 5th November so it does mean tying money up. Note that Kamala remains 1.01 for the Democratic nomination which should be settled this week, possibly tomorrow.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I'm interested to know how all these "middle Americans" believe they will be better off under Mr Trump when aiui he has pledged to reverse the Biden reforms that have removed financial burdens from them - cost of medical treatment for one, but also other things.

    An example of believing what they are told most loudly?

    On the stock market, has that not increased significantly under Biden?

    The Stock market has increased to a record high under Biden. Indeed, the fear is that this is a bubble caused by frankly insane optimism about the earning potential of AI. I am not suggesting for a moment that AI will not be economically significant but the multipliers for many of the tech firms are simply unsustainable.
    It is not the Dotcom bubble, alot of the froth in this market was due to expectations of growth but these are companies that are already delivering earnings and earnings growth and in some cases paying a dividend. Many of the Dotcom companies had nothing really behind them.

    They may have got ahead of themselves, as you say, on the expectation of future growth and the P/E of the S&P 500 has been at a historic high. Once they start to falter in growth then we will see what happens. This earnings season has been less than good so far. It is pointless dipping in and out on a short term basis.. I am in it for the long term. Over the long term the S&P 500 delivers.

    Many of the new generation of tech companies are, like in the dotcom bubble, hugely leveraged and unprofitable. They were flush with hedge fund money which needs to see a return now that money isn’t free any more.

    The S&P 500 is absolutely the gold standard for long term investment, I have half my saving fund it in, with the other half split between the FTSE 100 and various tech and emerging stock markets.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,129
    edited August 5
    DavidL said:

    The US media, and in particular Fox, have been talking the US economy down throughout Biden's period in office and it has clearly distorted perceptions of how the economy is doing. The estimate for GDP growth in Q2 of 2024 is 2.8% on an annualised basis, really not bad at all. Real wages are growing strongly after a fairly prolonged period where they were not (like here), job growth was exceptionally strong until last Friday (hence the panic on the markets) and the stock market was at a record high.

    In short, Biden has a fairly excellent record, certainly better than Trump's whose major tax cut was very heavily weighted towards the much better off. The CHIPs and Science Act may well have skirted the edges of what is permissible in terms of state support but it has undoubtedly encouraged US based production. The additional, and way overdue, expenditure on infrastructure has been significant and helped to drive US growth to the top of the G7.

    Of course, peoples' perceptions matter when it comes to their choice of who to vote for and a significant proportion of America are being fed alternative facts. Like us, the US is borrowing far too much and has a serious trade deficit (the 2 are, of course, linked in both cases because consumption is being driven by the excess borrowing). Not everything is great. The perception that it would be better under Trump really needs to be challenged.

    On the flip side, there's an argument that voting for Trump's policy of 10% tariffs on everything and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports would be voting to make yourself worse off, at least in the short term. But that's the kind of nerdy economist argument that plays well on centrist dad podcasts and doesn't really cut through with the wider electorate...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    Moning PB.

    When did Lawrence Fox move from provocateur to out-and-out fascist loon ? I haven't been following his case, but he seems very prominent in some of fhe most noxious stuff, along with Sunlounger Tommy.

    He's an actor. He's found an echo chamber that delivers him applause and pays him money. What is not to like?

    Twitter ruins people.

    It affected you too.
This discussion has been closed.