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Are we underestimating the chances of James Cleverly? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,516
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    The guy who has appeared in court for torching the bus is Roma. Are Roma people white? Aren't they a bit like Jews, in that they are a distinct race, i think originally from India.
    I believe if they choose to mark something distinct they would probably be categorised as White (other), which is a pretty broad category. I know people from North Africa who would (or have previously) ticked it.
    The UK (E&W) census categories are…

    Code Name
    1 Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Bangladeshi
    2 Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Chinese
    3 Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Indian
    4 Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Pakistani
    5 Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: Other Asian
    6 Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African: African
    7 Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African: Caribbean
    8 Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African: Other Black
    9 Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups: White and Asian
    10 Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups: White and Black African
    11 Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups: White and Black Caribbean
    12 Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups: Other Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups
    13 White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British
    14 White: Irish
    15 White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller
    16 White: Roma
    17 White: Other White
    18 Other ethnic group: Arab
    19 Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group

    I presume someone identifying as Roma would select (15).
    Eh? Not 16? (sorry - just waiting for the minestrone to cook)
    Sorry, didn’t notice they’ve split these recently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited August 3

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    The guy who has appeared in court for torching the bus is Roma. Are Roma people white? Aren't they a bit like Jews, in that they are a distinct race, i think originally from India.
    Sure! But the supposed cause of the rioting is "mass immigration and unchecked boat people". It isn't It's poverty. Migrants get the blame for poverty, but do you think the people kicking off would bother if they were well off? If their communities were thriving and prosperous?
    Certainly poverty is a factor. It is much easier to rile people up if their life is already shit, they ain't got much to lose anyway. They are also most likely to encounter crime and we know the police are doing a very poor job in many of these communities solving any crime at all.
    And the other contributing factor for why now surely has to be that the criminal justice system is broken. Which prisons are we going to send racist scum rioters to? They're so full that they're letting people out early. Just as a lack of police encourages petty crimes to blossom unchecked, we can see the same effect as it all kicks off.

    As I said earlier, why can't we round up these patriotic English perpetrators and send them to Rwanda? Ship the scum abroad.
    I think again contributing factor.

    What isn't clear to me, are these riots just the far-right knuckle draggers going town to town causing trouble, or is there local people also coming to protest and effectively being the useful idiots acting as cover for the knuckle draggers to kick off, or is it local scallies fancying a bit of mayhem as well (I saw a bit of the footage from Sunderland and there looked like a lot of youngish kids up to no good).

    It seems hard to judge how much are people who think they are coming to protest against poor policing, high knife crime, enough is enough seems to be the slogan, and how many are using that as cover for some football hooliganism style disorder.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    Officially the most metro liberal wankery I've read on here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Ms. Harris has had a great run in the last couple of weeks but she is still one point behind Mr. Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average and three points behind in my last poll. The easy polling lift from energizing women, Black Americans and young voters and consolidating the Democratic constituencies have now been deposited in the political bank. But the next few points, like improving her standing among white men, will be harder to come by.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/03/opinion/kamala-harris-josh-shapiro.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited August 3
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great atmosphere at these Olympics.

    For many of us the Track and Field is the highlight of the Olympics, and the 100m final tomorrow night the biggest event of the whole Games.

    Women’s 100m final tonight, where we could see one of the most controversial world records ever set finally consigned to history after 36 years.
    Track and field is always the big ticket item at the Olympics. By far the biggest crowds, and the stadium is ther centrepiece of the event.

    I have to say, though, the joy of the Olympics for me is the sports you don't really see at other times and suddenly intensely enjoy for a few days. Athletics (and other things like tennis and football) are ones where there are major events every year.
    Tbf. The other sports do have major events every year. They just aren't covered in this country.
    True - should have said we don't see major events every year. Although I don't think the UK is unique in giving limited coverage to the modern pentathlon between Olympics.

    Bring back Grandstand!
    Yes, Grandstand! The sort of thing the BBC should be doing, highlighting major events in minor sports.
    Transworld sport early on a Saturday morning on Ch4 used to be good for this as well.
    Yes, very good. I was trying to think of the name earlier, used to watch it loads back in the ‘90s.

    If we’re going to have a BBC this is the sort of thing they should be doing, highlighting minor sports that don’t get coverage anywhere else. Many of them produce their own coverage anyway, so the marginal cost of the programme is almost nothing.
    If i remember correctly, a number of minor sports actually pay towards being on Sky. So it isn't like there are mega billion rights package to fork out for.
    That sounds exactly like how a commercial operator would work, auctioning spots on TV for the minor sports to compete with each other for Sky’s eyeballs, at a cost to the sports probably out of proportion to the number of eyeballs.

    Which is why the BBC should bring back Grandstand, doing what the commercial broadcasters generally won’t.
    The thing is now with iPlayer, there isn't even the argument that well we would have to weigh that against a repeat of Celebrity Pointless (or whatever nonsense they show on Saturday these day). There is no restriction on channels that used to be a genuine issue in the past.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,811

    Ms. Harris has had a great run in the last couple of weeks but she is still one point behind Mr. Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average and three points behind in my last poll. The easy polling lift from energizing women, Black Americans and young voters and consolidating the Democratic constituencies have now been deposited in the political bank. But the next few points, like improving her standing among white men, will be harder to come by.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/03/opinion/kamala-harris-josh-shapiro.html

    What has been gained can also be lost again.

    Votes aren't money in the bank but more like water in a bath - easily lost if its rocked or holed.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited August 3

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    Officially the most metro liberal wankery I've read on here.
    That's one Britain, and yours might be another. But there are many ideals in a pluralistic country with one of the world's oldest liberal traditions, not a "real" Britain and a metro one.

    Luckily we live in a plural country.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,976
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    Unexpectedly, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves disagrees with you. In fact in 2016 she explicitly predicted these riots unless immigration was controlled

    “Rachel Reeves warns in 2016 that riots could sweep the streets of Britain if immigration is not controlled.

    She compares her constituency in Leeds to a “tinder box” and fears that voters’ concerns over immigration could “explode” on to the streets if unaddressed.”

    lol

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1819283997161046453?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    And what happened? Concerns about migration were not addressed. And now we have riots exploding across the country as she foresaw
    Can we at least agree that the guy at the nexus of all this is neither muslim nor a migrant? Born and raised here and is Christian. So obviously the far right want to start riots shouting about migration and muslims.

    Why are *you* talking about it? This started off with the horrific murder of girls with the suspect a British Christian. What the proverbial does migration and muslims have to do with it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,968
    Relaxing watching the windsurfing at the Olympics.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    Unexpectedly, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves disagrees with you. In fact in 2016 she explicitly predicted these riots unless immigration was controlled

    “Rachel Reeves warns in 2016 that riots could sweep the streets of Britain if immigration is not controlled.

    She compares her constituency in Leeds to a “tinder box” and fears that voters’ concerns over immigration could “explode” on to the streets if unaddressed.”

    lol

    https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1819283997161046453?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    And what happened? Concerns about migration were not addressed. And now we have riots exploding across the country as she foresaw
    It's competition for scarce resources. More migration equals more competition for scarce resources. Look at the UK's appalling gdp per capita growth post 2008. Or how hard it is to get a gp's appointment, or a council house...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,300
    edited August 3
    ‘Free money’: £4bn lost to fraud and error on flagship HMRC ‘innovation’ scheme
    UK tax credits to promote research and development were claimed by a pub for changing its menus and by window cleaners for hanging their buckets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/03/free-money-4bn-lost-to-and-error-on-flagship-hmrc-innovation-scheme
    ..New figures published in HM Revenue and Customs’ annual report last week reveal that the estimated cost of fraud and error in the scheme was more than £4.1bn from 2020-21 to 2023-24. HMRC says expenditure on the reliefs in 2023-24 was £7.7bn.

    The scale of the abuse of tax credits has emerged as Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pledges to crack down on tax fraud and non-compliance. Labour hopes to raise £5bn by the end of this parliament by recovering more tax revenues. Tax officials said that the error and fraud in R&D tax relief revealed in the report was “clearly unacceptable” and the public would expect action.

    Colin Hailey, a technology tax expert who has given evidence to parliament on the tax reliefs, said he and other advisers were warning about the abuses in the scheme more than six years ago. ..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Andy_JS said:

    Relaxing watching the windsurfing at the Olympics.

    Blimey are they shifting. Nothing like what I ever did.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited August 3
    Nigelb said:

    ‘Free money’: £4bn lost to fraud and error on flagship HMRC ‘innovation’ scheme
    UK tax credits to promote research and development were claimed by a pub for changing its menus and by window cleaners for hanging their buckets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/03/free-money-4bn-lost-to-and-error-on-flagship-hmrc-innovation-scheme
    ..New figures published in HM Revenue and Customs’ annual report last week reveal that the estimated cost of fraud and error in the scheme was more than £4.1bn from 2020-21 to 2023-24. HMRC says expenditure on the reliefs in 2023-24 was £7.7bn.

    The scale of the abuse of tax credits has emerged as Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pledges to crack down on tax fraud and non-compliance. Labour hopes to raise £5bn by the end of this parliament by recovering more tax revenues. Tax officials said that the error and fraud in R&D tax relief revealed in the report was “clearly unacceptable” and the public would expect action.

    Colin Hailey, a technology tax expert who has given evidence to parliament on the tax reliefs, said he and other advisers were warning about the abuses in the scheme more than six years ago. ..

    The headline is a bit misleading, window cleaners claim for hanging their buckets was thrown out. Its a bit Daily Mail where they got two terrible examples, of which one didn't even qualify. However, the HMRC being dysfunctional, anybody with a small business will tell you that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,968
    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    60% dislike after a month, that’s a little harsh.

    The fact remains that the finances are screwed for everyone in the West at the moment, and it looks like we are entering a bear market in the City.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,597

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ..

    Scott_xP said:

    I don't doubt events on Monday will make Labour more worried about the impact of the small boats issue. Will they make any policy change? Not sure.

    How does torching a CAB help Stop the Boats?

    It doesn't.

    If Labour change any policies to appease these racists fukwits then democracy is dead.
    Do you not know the days of the week? Monday was the day three girls were stabbed to death and many more could have been by the son of Rwandan migrants. You're a fool if you don't think that won't influence the public at all.
    The narrative was created on Twitter by a right wing agent provocateur. A woman who has form for fake news. Farage, either by cockup or conspiracy ran with that narrative.

    Loads of people calling LBC later this week were sticking with the alleged murderer being a Syrian (Muslim) Refugee. The notion that a lie gets half way around the world before the truth has got it's boots on is a truism.
    It wouldn't surprise me if LBC deliberately put those people through. But again do we have any hard data on how many believed the Syrian refugee story?

    Anyway the rioters are thugs from what I can see. If people really want to draw attention to migration problems they can glue themselves to the road which I'd suggest would be more effective.
    The mindless violence and boorishness of the Yaxley Lennon brigade is the biggest asset their opponents have.
    Fckn hell, sort your quotes out!
    Those are my words. Since sorted that quoting clusterfuck in any case before the six minute hammer dropped.
    Post election come down, innit? Blue vermin sent packing and we now contemplate the new reality.

    Hopefully we'll have a really good, blood drenched and flame wreathed riot season. Then the tory conference should be a laugh, then we're into the US Presidential carnage, then Strictly then it's the Holidays.
    Got a bet on Gove doing Strictly before 2026.

    He'd f-ing better.
    JRM could make quite a good ballroom dancer, I think. Not sure how he'd get on doing a Salsa though... 😂
    I could see Truss doing SCD in a search for rehabilitation as a Portillo style National Treasure.
    There is no sense in which Michael Portillo is a "national treasure".

    I don't say that because I particularly dislike him - some of his programmes are quite watchable. But Grand Designs is quite watchable without making Kevin McCloud a "national treasure".
    Huw Edwards was also seen as a ‘national treasure’ until very recently. Don’t go there on Jimmy Savile either, who died thinking that he was a mad eccentric Englishman, before his scandal was revealed.
    I don't think Edwards ever was. Savile probably was - but, as you say, was stripped of the status posthumously.

    For me, national treasure status has elements of prominance and public affection, but the big factor is irreplacability. When David Attenborough dies, others will do nature programmes, and some will do it well, but it won't be like-for-like. Anyone else will either be a pale imitation or, if wise, do it in a different way.

    For Portillo, where this started, I think his programmes are quite good, and he may well be a professional person to work with in making them. But wearing pastel jackets doesn't, frankly, make him irreplacable. Various other people could do the same in a similar way and to a similar standard.
    I've got a friend who is a train conductor. He says Portillo is a bloody nuisance glad-handing his fans while he is trying to get a train to leave on time.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited August 3
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    60% dislike after a month, that’s a little harsh.

    The fact remains that the finances are screwed for everyone in the West at the moment, and it looks like we are entering a bear market in the City.
    The economic figures for the UK have been quite good recently. Not sure why we'd be entering a bear market.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Way off topic.

    An inspiring video of a woman telling the world about her breast cancer diagnosis.

    Her name is Christina Pazsitzky, and she’s a 48-year-old American.

    She’s also a professional comedian, as is her husband, and here they spend 16 minutes together talking about the diagnosis, the treatment, the way that your body changing can affect your relationship, and why it’s a really bad idea to go for a mammogram just before your holiday, because it totally f***s up your summer plans.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC3HQo9CWi8 (contains some NSFW language).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Nigelb said:

    ‘Free money’: £4bn lost to fraud and error on flagship HMRC ‘innovation’ scheme
    UK tax credits to promote research and development were claimed by a pub for changing its menus and by window cleaners for hanging their buckets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/03/free-money-4bn-lost-to-and-error-on-flagship-hmrc-innovation-scheme
    ..New figures published in HM Revenue and Customs’ annual report last week reveal that the estimated cost of fraud and error in the scheme was more than £4.1bn from 2020-21 to 2023-24. HMRC says expenditure on the reliefs in 2023-24 was £7.7bn.

    The scale of the abuse of tax credits has emerged as Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pledges to crack down on tax fraud and non-compliance. Labour hopes to raise £5bn by the end of this parliament by recovering more tax revenues. Tax officials said that the error and fraud in R&D tax relief revealed in the report was “clearly unacceptable” and the public would expect action.

    Colin Hailey, a technology tax expert who has given evidence to parliament on the tax reliefs, said he and other advisers were warning about the abuses in the scheme more than six years ago. ..

    I find this super deduction thing ridiculous. Of course we want more investment. Raising corporation tax and having fully tax deductible expenses is the way to go.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,948
    edited August 3

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    Ditto. It probably won't last too long so let's enjoy it while we can without all these pretend posts that the honeymoon is over. It will be sooner or later, there is no need to rush it.

    Sorry not a comment on Andy's post but others who are repeatedly telling us it is a disaster.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,512

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    Officially the most metro liberal wankery I've read on here.
    You obviously did not read my post from this time last year, when I went for a 10K run into Nottingham and ended up (to my surprise) in the middle of their Pride celebrations. Which, despite being straight and very, very sweaty, I joined in with.

    Fun.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Atlantic currents that warm Europe sizable risk of collapse in next couple of decades, potentially devastating British agriculture.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,300

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Free money’: £4bn lost to fraud and error on flagship HMRC ‘innovation’ scheme
    UK tax credits to promote research and development were claimed by a pub for changing its menus and by window cleaners for hanging their buckets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/03/free-money-4bn-lost-to-and-error-on-flagship-hmrc-innovation-scheme
    ..New figures published in HM Revenue and Customs’ annual report last week reveal that the estimated cost of fraud and error in the scheme was more than £4.1bn from 2020-21 to 2023-24. HMRC says expenditure on the reliefs in 2023-24 was £7.7bn.

    The scale of the abuse of tax credits has emerged as Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pledges to crack down on tax fraud and non-compliance. Labour hopes to raise £5bn by the end of this parliament by recovering more tax revenues. Tax officials said that the error and fraud in R&D tax relief revealed in the report was “clearly unacceptable” and the public would expect action.

    Colin Hailey, a technology tax expert who has given evidence to parliament on the tax reliefs, said he and other advisers were warning about the abuses in the scheme more than six years ago. ..

    I find this super deduction thing ridiculous. Of course we want more investment. Raising corporation tax and having fully tax deductible expenses is the way to go.
    Agreed.

    If they want extra funding for high impact research in specific areas, then channel it through something like DARPA/ARPA
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great atmosphere at these Olympics.

    For many of us the Track and Field is the highlight of the Olympics, and the 100m final tomorrow night the biggest event of the whole Games.

    Women’s 100m final tonight, where we could see one of the most controversial world records ever set finally consigned to history after 36 years.
    Track and field is always the big ticket item at the Olympics. By far the biggest crowds, and the stadium is ther centrepiece of the event.

    I have to say, though, the joy of the Olympics for me is the sports you don't really see at other times and suddenly intensely enjoy for a few days. Athletics (and other things like tennis and football) are ones where there are major events every year.
    Tbf. The other sports do have major events every year. They just aren't covered in this country.
    True - should have said we don't see major events every year. Although I don't think the UK is unique in giving limited coverage to the modern pentathlon between Olympics.

    Bring back Grandstand!
    Yes, Grandstand! The sort of thing the BBC should be doing, highlighting major events in minor sports.
    Transworld sport early on a Saturday morning on Ch4 used to be good for this as well.
    Yer carnt even call a sports programme Transworld Sport any more..
    Not at all obsessed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173

    GIN1138 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ..

    Scott_xP said:

    I don't doubt events on Monday will make Labour more worried about the impact of the small boats issue. Will they make any policy change? Not sure.

    How does torching a CAB help Stop the Boats?

    It doesn't.

    If Labour change any policies to appease these racists fukwits then democracy is dead.
    Do you not know the days of the week? Monday was the day three girls were stabbed to death and many more could have been by the son of Rwandan migrants. You're a fool if you don't think that won't influence the public at all.
    The narrative was created on Twitter by a right wing agent provocateur. A woman who has form for fake news. Farage, either by cockup or conspiracy ran with that narrative.

    Loads of people calling LBC later this week were sticking with the alleged murderer being a Syrian (Muslim) Refugee. The notion that a lie gets half way around the world before the truth has got it's boots on is a truism.
    It wouldn't surprise me if LBC deliberately put those people through. But again do we have any hard data on how many believed the Syrian refugee story?

    Anyway the rioters are thugs from what I can see. If people really want to draw attention to migration problems they can glue themselves to the road which I'd suggest would be more effective.
    The mindless violence and boorishness of the Yaxley Lennon brigade is the biggest asset their opponents have.
    Fckn hell, sort your quotes out!
    Those are my words. Since sorted that quoting clusterfuck in any case before the six minute hammer dropped.
    Post election come down, innit? Blue vermin sent packing and we now contemplate the new reality.

    Hopefully we'll have a really good, blood drenched and flame wreathed riot season. Then the tory conference should be a laugh, then we're into the US Presidential carnage, then Strictly then it's the Holidays.
    Got a bet on Gove doing Strictly before 2026.

    He'd f-ing better.
    JRM could make quite a good ballroom dancer, I think. Not sure how he'd get on doing a Salsa though... 😂
    I could see Truss doing SCD in a search for rehabilitation as a Portillo style National Treasure.
    Portillo's rehabilitation started on election night when he stood in front of the people and accepted their verdict with that memorable speech.

    Truss, as the coward she is, flitted in at the last possible moment before the declaration and refused to give a speech.

    She'd have to do something much more "intense" than SCD to earn rehabilitation from GBP. It's the Jungle for her, I think... ;)
    She didn't refuse to make a speech. The losers in South West Norfolk don't make speeches. Whatever else we accuse Truss of being, coward is pretty low on the list. Apart from that, great post.
    Doubtless a practice introduced by Norfolk Tories to make sure they never had to listen to a speech from a non-Tory?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    60% dislike after a month, that’s a little harsh.

    The fact remains that the finances are screwed for everyone in the West at the moment, and it looks like we are entering a bear market in the City.
    The economic figures for the UK have been quite good recently. Not sure why we'd be entering a bear market.
    One of the stats I like to check is the number of job postings on indeed - biggest job site in UK/US for professional/office type work.

    A quick look on there tells you that the economies of the US and UK are both in the toilet and have been for some time. I find data like this more useful than government tractor stats.

    https://data.indeed.com/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,512

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    That's a bit unfair on May. She was very good at striking the right tine in many areas, including after Salisbury. Her issues were more to do with the loony fringe of her own party.

    SKS is only a short period into his PMship, and has yet to face any significant crisis - that#s when you really need to set the right tone to the nation.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    Noteworthy lots of families at the Edinburgh Pride. Clearly parents thinking this is normal activity to involve children in.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    I'm inclined to think that in my area gently increasing diversity will gradually wash away the foundations of the tendency Reform & fellow travellers are trying to exploit.

    "White British" came down a little in 2011->2021 and is now 91.8% !

    I may be being too optimistic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Free money’: £4bn lost to fraud and error on flagship HMRC ‘innovation’ scheme
    UK tax credits to promote research and development were claimed by a pub for changing its menus and by window cleaners for hanging their buckets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/03/free-money-4bn-lost-to-and-error-on-flagship-hmrc-innovation-scheme
    ..New figures published in HM Revenue and Customs’ annual report last week reveal that the estimated cost of fraud and error in the scheme was more than £4.1bn from 2020-21 to 2023-24. HMRC says expenditure on the reliefs in 2023-24 was £7.7bn.

    The scale of the abuse of tax credits has emerged as Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pledges to crack down on tax fraud and non-compliance. Labour hopes to raise £5bn by the end of this parliament by recovering more tax revenues. Tax officials said that the error and fraud in R&D tax relief revealed in the report was “clearly unacceptable” and the public would expect action.

    Colin Hailey, a technology tax expert who has given evidence to parliament on the tax reliefs, said he and other advisers were warning about the abuses in the scheme more than six years ago. ..

    I find this super deduction thing ridiculous. Of course we want more investment. Raising corporation tax and having fully tax deductible expenses is the way to go.
    Is there something there about too much laissez-faire at Companies House?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    edited August 3

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    I agree. Whether you think Starmer's policies are the right ones, it's refreshing simply to have serious people in charge. The Conservatives abdicated all responsibility years ago and don't seem minded to start again now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    60% dislike after a month, that’s a little harsh.

    The fact remains that the finances are screwed for everyone in the West at the moment, and it looks like we are entering a bear market in the City.
    The economic figures for the UK have been quite good recently. Not sure why we'd be entering a bear market.
    The stock market is a leading indicator for the economy, and the last few days on the markets have been terrible everywhere. It started with the Japanese central bank raising rates earlier in the week, albeit from 0.1% to 0.25%, then the Fed unexpectedly held as the BoE cut. The large tech companies’ results have all been way below expectations, and there’s an almost September 2008 feeling around the markets this week, from those old enough to remember those events.

    As someone said, interest rates going up is like the tide going out, we quickly get to see who’s swimming naked. It’s only a matter of time until Thames Water goes bust, and that failure is like to expose a whole load more companies leveraged up to their necks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,300

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    That's a bit unfair on May. She was very good at striking the right tine in many areas, including after Salisbury. Her issues were more to do with the loony fringe of her own party.

    SKS is only a short period into his PMship, and has yet to face any significant crisis - that#s when you really need to set the right tone to the nation.
    Failed miserably striking the 'right' tone with Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    edited August 3
    So we get to see what Leon looks like.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,512
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    That's a bit unfair on May. She was very good at striking the right tine in many areas, including after Salisbury. Her issues were more to do with the loony fringe of her own party.

    SKS is only a short period into his PMship, and has yet to face any significant crisis - that#s when you really need to set the right tone to the nation.
    Failed miserably striking the 'right' tone with Brexit.
    That's because it was an impossible task, as the loons within her party wanted someone else to strike the same 'tone'.

    If I was to rank the post-2010 PMs from best to worst:

    Cameron
    May
    Sunak
    Johnson
    Truss

    It's far too early to say where SKS will appear on this list.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955
    edited August 3
    This is a list from Guido this week (source Dan Neidle - big Labour advisor aiui) of things that may be on Rachel Reeves' "where to find money" laundry list.

    It looks like quite a good list of places to start. To me the main thing missing is probably around property companies & charities used as tax shelters, and trusts.

    To repeat a question I asked earlier this week - does anyone have a number for how much the interest cut will save out Government?

    It will a tricky balance to strike, and the DM will be all shrieked out.

    Pension Reforms:

    Scrap the pension tax relief.
    End the pension tax free lump sum.

    Inheritance and Wealth Taxes:

    Limiting inheritance tax reliefs.
    Increase inheritance tax on trusts.
    Wealth tax – targetting those with assets.
    Gift tax.

    Capital Gains and Investment Taxes

    Increase capital gains tax.
    Abolish business asset disposal relief.
    Cap tax relief on ISAs.

    Property and Real Estate Taxes

    Eliminate the stamp duty “loophole” for enveloped commercial property.
    Increase ATED.
    Council tax increases for valuable property.
    Consumption Taxes

    Reverse the Tories’ cancellation of the fuel duty rise.

    Increase vehicle excise duty.
    Tax gambling winnings.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    edited August 3
    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,512
    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited August 3
    Out of hours emergency GP update.
    Brilliant service. 20 minutes of listening and advice. Got a temporary scrip.
    Go to GP at opening time Monday and get an emergency appointment.
    So. By talking to an actual doctor I've been assessed as critical needing urgent intervention. Told them nowt that wasn't on the original Online form. Which was to be judged worthy of a telephone call, almost certainly not from a doctor, on the 20th!!
    Bits of NHS working well. 111. Out of hours. Regular GP system in utter chaos.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    So we have British and Irish flags on one side, Pride and Palestine flags on the other.

    How are the Belfast police supposed to deal with that one, given the long history of protest in their city?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,170
    tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    Quite possible to imagine some concatenation of the Blueshirts and the BUF flying the tricolour and the UJ together. No one has exclusive ownership of a flag.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,300
    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,313
    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,166
    tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    NI is the only part of the UK where the police are authorised to use water cannon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,313
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
    If that's the case he should have realised what they were up to and taken the short-term hit from pulling out.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    That's a bit unfair on May. She was very good at striking the right tine in many areas, including after Salisbury. Her issues were more to do with the loony fringe of her own party.

    SKS is only a short period into his PMship, and has yet to face any significant crisis - that#s when you really need to set the right tone to the nation.
    Failed miserably striking the 'right' tone with Brexit.
    That's because it was an impossible task, as the loons within her party wanted someone else to strike the same 'tone'.

    If I was to rank the post-2010 PMs from best to worst:

    Cameron
    May
    Sunak
    Johnson
    Truss

    It's far too early to say where SKS will appear on this list.
    Started out above Cameron, currently sitting somewhere between Johnson and Truss. But that is probably temporary.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,195
    a

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    The guy who has appeared in court for torching the bus is Roma. Are Roma people white? Aren't they a bit like Jews, in that they are a distinct race, i think originally from India.
    Sure! But the supposed cause of the rioting is "mass immigration and unchecked boat people". It isn't It's poverty. Migrants get the blame for poverty, but do you think the people kicking off would bother if they were well off? If their communities were thriving and prosperous?
    Certainly poverty is a factor. It is much easier to rile people up if their life is already shit, they ain't got much to lose anyway. They are also most likely to encounter crime and we know the police are doing a very poor job in many of these communities solving any crime at all.
    And the other contributing factor for why now surely has to be that the criminal justice system is broken. Which prisons are we going to send racist scum rioters to? They're so full that they're letting people out early. Just as a lack of police encourages petty crimes to blossom unchecked, we can see the same effect as it all kicks off.

    As I said earlier, why can't we round up these patriotic English perpetrators and send them to Rwanda? Ship the scum abroad.
    I think again contributing factor.

    What isn't clear to me, are these riots just the far-right knuckle draggers going town to town causing trouble, or is there local people also coming to protest and effectively being the useful idiots acting as cover for the knuckle draggers to kick off, or is it local scallies fancying a bit of mayhem as well (I saw a bit of the footage from Sunderland and there looked like a lot of youngish kids up to no good).

    It seems hard to judge how much are people who think they are coming to protest against poor policing, high knife crime, enough is enough seems to be the slogan, and how many are using that as cover for some football hooliganism style disorder.
    As far as I can tell - all of the above
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    a

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    The guy who has appeared in court for torching the bus is Roma. Are Roma people white? Aren't they a bit like Jews, in that they are a distinct race, i think originally from India.
    Sure! But the supposed cause of the rioting is "mass immigration and unchecked boat people". It isn't It's poverty. Migrants get the blame for poverty, but do you think the people kicking off would bother if they were well off? If their communities were thriving and prosperous?
    Certainly poverty is a factor. It is much easier to rile people up if their life is already shit, they ain't got much to lose anyway. They are also most likely to encounter crime and we know the police are doing a very poor job in many of these communities solving any crime at all.
    And the other contributing factor for why now surely has to be that the criminal justice system is broken. Which prisons are we going to send racist scum rioters to? They're so full that they're letting people out early. Just as a lack of police encourages petty crimes to blossom unchecked, we can see the same effect as it all kicks off.

    As I said earlier, why can't we round up these patriotic English perpetrators and send them to Rwanda? Ship the scum abroad.
    I think again contributing factor.

    What isn't clear to me, are these riots just the far-right knuckle draggers going town to town causing trouble, or is there local people also coming to protest and effectively being the useful idiots acting as cover for the knuckle draggers to kick off, or is it local scallies fancying a bit of mayhem as well (I saw a bit of the footage from Sunderland and there looked like a lot of youngish kids up to no good).

    It seems hard to judge how much are people who think they are coming to protest against poor policing, high knife crime, enough is enough seems to be the slogan, and how many are using that as cover for some football hooliganism style disorder.
    As far as I can tell - all of the above
    Yep. The looting of a vape shop suggests some opportunism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,195
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    So we have British and Irish flags on one side, Pride and Palestine flags on the other.

    How are the Belfast police supposed to deal with that one, given the long history of protest in their city?
    With great skill. Three way riots are not unknown in NI.

    There was one, many years back, when an Alliance event peace march was attacked by yobs of both brands of sectarianism.

    On of the Alliance marchers was a semi-professional rugby player. There was actually whining, afterwards, by some of the sectarian yobs that he (the rugby guy) had kicked the shit out of someone attacking the march.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,731

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not much of a honeymoon for Starmer if these YouGov figures are right.

    "Keir Starmer

    fame -> 98%
    popularity -> 22%
    disliked -> 60%
    neutral -> 16%"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

    The suspicion was always that Sir Kier was a dud and nothing he's done so far has done anything to change that perception...
    I voted LibDem, but my impression is that he's started very well.

    Focused, sober, full of new plans, and also most often, and significantly. I would say, knowing how to strike the right tone in many different areas. unlike all four of his preceding Prime Ministers.
    That's a bit unfair on May. She was very good at striking the right tine in many areas, including after Salisbury. Her issues were more to do with the loony fringe of her own party.

    SKS is only a short period into his PMship, and has yet to face any significant crisis - that#s when you really need to set the right tone to the nation.
    Failed miserably striking the 'right' tone with Brexit.
    That's because it was an impossible task, as the loons within her party wanted someone else to strike the same 'tone'.

    If I was to rank the post-2010 PMs from best to worst:

    Cameron
    May
    Sunak
    Johnson
    Truss

    It's far too early to say where SKS will appear on this list.
    I’d put Truss above Johnson. She was at least honest.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 813
    edited August 3

    Time to recycle another Cold War joke:

    “Did you hear about the burglary in Venezuela?”
    “No, what was stolen?”
    “The results of the next presidential election.”

    Maduro's offering an even better return on Polymarket now. Over 30% in - presumably - days or weeks. Maybe cover with "Other" as well.

    There's still something stopping me pulling the trigger but I can't rationally say what so it's still my recommendation on a "do as I say not as I do" basis to go stick a bunch of money into it.

    Like it or not Venezuela has certified the obviously fraudulent option so that's the option that should win imo. Regardless of it being fraudulent.

    See also this tweet by Polymarket themselves
    I'd also lean that way but the rules are very weirdly phrased. "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice." The consensus of credible reporting is that Maduro lost. But official information from Venezuela is that he won.

    The resolution uses UMA, which basically resolves using a vote of UMA tokenholders, an unknown number of whom will have bets on this market or be open to bribes from people who do. The famous Polymarket intern may have an opinion that it should settle to Maduro but it's not up to him.
    (FPT) yeah imo it all comes down to what "primary resolution" means. And as you say whether market agrees with my interpretation.

    IMO the fact it's still 75% for him is probably a sign more people think like me on a weighted basis.

    But I remain cowardly and uninvolved.

    Alternatively they could settle both at 100 I think....
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    MattW said:

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    I'm inclined to think that in my area gently increasing diversity will gradually wash away the foundations of the tendency Reform & fellow travellers are trying to exploit.

    "White British" came down a little in 2011->2021 and is now 91.8% !

    I may be being too optimistic.
    Isn't that what conspiracists call "replacement theory"?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    .
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
    Unfair of the Dems to choose a candidate that might win against their opponents.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,195
    tlg86 said:

    a

    Leon said:

    Awful scenes yesterday in Sunderland, and my friend in Newcastle has been told by their friend at the RVI that they are on alert for a potential riot in Newcastle today.

    Time that we crack down on these micro-brain “patriots”. We can’t jail them as they are full, and they are a menace to society. So why not deport them to Rwanda? We already spent the money on that, let’s get best value for the taxpayer

    These riots could now become a feature not a bug

    Why? Because the underlying cause - mass immigration and unchecked boat people - is not going away. It might easily get worse. There will be another Southport, another Manchester arena - tragically. And next time the explosion will be instant

    Starmer doesn’t appear to remotely understand this. He thinks it’s a passing issue of civil disorder
    Da Libz (and @RochdalePioneers is one) will only ever think it's the far-right and a crackdown will sort it and make it go away.

    They have zero desire to engage any further than that because it would require them to ask some difficult questions.
    This is in response to both of you. The underlying cause is *poverty*. Not mass migration or boat people. The alleged perp in Southport is a born and raised Welshman, in a very religious Christian family. Its kicking off because people with no hope can be whipped into a frenzy by manipulative fucks to believe said Christian was shouting about Allah.

    Before the Southport horror it kicked off in dirty Leeds, with initially an incident where Romanian kids were being taken away, which then led to the residents torching a bus. The people filmed torching the bus in supposed protest? White.

    I want to engage on issues of poverty. It is you two fine gentlemen who do not. Easier to blame the forrin. Even when the supposed Forrin is British.
    The guy who has appeared in court for torching the bus is Roma. Are Roma people white? Aren't they a bit like Jews, in that they are a distinct race, i think originally from India.
    Sure! But the supposed cause of the rioting is "mass immigration and unchecked boat people". It isn't It's poverty. Migrants get the blame for poverty, but do you think the people kicking off would bother if they were well off? If their communities were thriving and prosperous?
    Certainly poverty is a factor. It is much easier to rile people up if their life is already shit, they ain't got much to lose anyway. They are also most likely to encounter crime and we know the police are doing a very poor job in many of these communities solving any crime at all.
    And the other contributing factor for why now surely has to be that the criminal justice system is broken. Which prisons are we going to send racist scum rioters to? They're so full that they're letting people out early. Just as a lack of police encourages petty crimes to blossom unchecked, we can see the same effect as it all kicks off.

    As I said earlier, why can't we round up these patriotic English perpetrators and send them to Rwanda? Ship the scum abroad.
    I think again contributing factor.

    What isn't clear to me, are these riots just the far-right knuckle draggers going town to town causing trouble, or is there local people also coming to protest and effectively being the useful idiots acting as cover for the knuckle draggers to kick off, or is it local scallies fancying a bit of mayhem as well (I saw a bit of the footage from Sunderland and there looked like a lot of youngish kids up to no good).

    It seems hard to judge how much are people who think they are coming to protest against poor policing, high knife crime, enough is enough seems to be the slogan, and how many are using that as cover for some football hooliganism style disorder.
    As far as I can tell - all of the above
    Yep. The looting of a vape shop suggests some opportunism.
    Ah, the shopping phase of street protest. The choice of target matches - run by someone of darker hue than the rioters, no doubt.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    WillG said:

    Atlantic currents that warm Europe sizable risk of collapse in next couple of decades, potentially devastating British agriculture.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/

    Doomsters and Gloomsters. Millenarian standard stuff.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited August 3
    FF43 said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
    Unfair of the Dems to choose a candidate that might win against their opponents.
    “Choose” is doing a lot of work there, given the way in which one candidate was swapped for another, with very little process getting in the way of the coronation of Harris.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955

    MattW said:

    On a brighter note, I've just returned from watching the Pride Parade that precedes a weekend of decadent debauchery in Brighton. Many, many thousands lining the streets enjoying the outrageous costumes and thumping music, smiling, laughing and cheering as the parade meanders past in all its tawdry glory. It's all a bit old hat now, but people still seem to love it. And, dare I say it, many of the floats represented the multicultural nation we live in.

    The best of tolerant, open-minded Britain.

    I'm inclined to think that in my area gently increasing diversity will gradually wash away the foundations of the tendency Reform & fellow travellers are trying to exploit.

    "White British" came down a little in 2011->2021 and is now 91.8% !

    I may be being too optimistic.
    Isn't that what conspiracists call "replacement theory"?
    That has too many syllables.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Obviously not been convicted, but what the hell has happened in the intervening years? The line about autism and unwillingness to leave the house or communicate with his family is completely different to what is seen in that trailer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689
    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    ie he will only do a debate if it's not a debate.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955
    dixiedean said:

    Out of hours emergency GP update.
    Brilliant service. 20 minutes of listening and advice. Got a temporary scrip.
    Go to GP at opening time Monday and get an emergency appointment.
    So. By talking to an actual doctor I've been assessed as critical needing urgent intervention. Told them nowt that wasn't on the original Online form. Which was to be judged worthy of a telephone call, almost certainly not from a doctor, on the 20th!!
    Bits of NHS working well. 111. Out of hours. Regular GP system in utter chaos.

    My experience of 111 over years has been good for myself and relatives. But also has my experience of my GP, the out-of-hours GP service near the local hospital, and the local MIU.

    The one that struggles ime is the ER at the district hospital, and the service is rated above average.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Oh, come on. Six years ago he would have been 11!

    You're surely not arguing he was destined to be arrested for multiple stabbings six years ago.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 813
    MattW said:



    Tax gambling winnings.

    What????????
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955
    edited August 3

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Oh, come on. Six years ago he would have been 11!

    You're surely not arguing he was destined to be arrested for multiple stabbings six years ago.
    I'd say poor judgement from the BBC on that one. If they were attacked by some of the more ludicrous pols, they could have fired straight back.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    ie he will only do a debate if it's not a debate.
    He’s nervous. He knows he’s bad at one to one debates despite being the world’s greatest mass debater
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Oh, come on. Six years ago he would have been 11!

    You're surely not arguing he was destined to be arrested for multiple stabbings six years ago.
    So the BBC is withdrawing images of a kid aged 11 who went on to do something bad, but not withdrawing film of their own newsreader who ended up with a conviction for having images of 11-year-olds on his phone?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955

    MattW said:



    Tax gambling winnings.

    What????????
    Heh. I'm not so sure about that one :smile: .

    I'd be interested to see what the numbers are, especially in cost:benefit terms bearing in mind the many jobs created.

    Isn't the owner of BET365 our largest single personal tax payer?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
    Unfair of the Dems to choose a candidate that might win against their opponents.
    “Choose” is doing a lot of work there, given the way in which one candidate was swapped for another, with very little process getting in the way of the coronation of Harris.
    So what? Is it any business of the Republicans who the Dems choose as their candidate?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
    Unfair of the Dems to choose a candidate that might win against their opponents.
    “Choose” is doing a lot of work there, given the way in which one candidate was swapped for another, with very little process getting in the way of the coronation of Harris.
    So what? Is it any business of the Republicans who the Dems choose as their candidate?
    Of course not, but Trump agreed to debate Biden and now the Dems are trying to change their participant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,968
    On topic, Cleverly will be one of the top two to go through to the members imo. Not sure about the other one: probably Jenrick or Badenoch.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,195
    tlg86 said:

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Obviously not been convicted, but what the hell has happened in the intervening years? The line about autism and unwillingness to leave the house or communicate with his family is completely different to what is seen in that trailer.
    There is a noted and known phenomenon of mid/late teens developing a combination of anxiety combined with ADHD and/autism. This leads to some quite bright and apparently happy children turning inwards and self isolating. Known a couple of examples among parents I know. As in refusing to leave their room for anything. Or talk to anyone.

    If the schools aren’t very supportive, this ends up with exclusion for non-attendance and the spiral gets worse.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,968
    MattW said:

    This is a list from Guido this week (source Dan Neidle - big Labour advisor aiui) of things that may be on Rachel Reeves' "where to find money" laundry list.

    It looks like quite a good list of places to start. To me the main thing missing is probably around property companies & charities used as tax shelters, and trusts.

    To repeat a question I asked earlier this week - does anyone have a number for how much the interest cut will save out Government?

    It will a tricky balance to strike, and the DM will be all shrieked out.

    Pension Reforms:

    Scrap the pension tax relief.
    End the pension tax free lump sum.

    Inheritance and Wealth Taxes:

    Limiting inheritance tax reliefs.
    Increase inheritance tax on trusts.
    Wealth tax – targetting those with assets.
    Gift tax.

    Capital Gains and Investment Taxes

    Increase capital gains tax.
    Abolish business asset disposal relief.
    Cap tax relief on ISAs.

    Property and Real Estate Taxes

    Eliminate the stamp duty “loophole” for enveloped commercial property.
    Increase ATED.
    Council tax increases for valuable property.
    Consumption Taxes

    Reverse the Tories’ cancellation of the fuel duty rise.

    Increase vehicle excise duty.
    Tax gambling winnings.

    The last one is unacceptable.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 436
    edited August 3
    Touch wood, police look to be doing an excellent job.

    Starmer/Cooper know exactly what they’re doing.

    I’m definitely not regretting my labour vote last month.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    So we have British and Irish flags on one side, Pride and Palestine flags on the other.

    How are the Belfast police supposed to deal with that one, given the long history of protest in their city?
    It's fascinating that's where we're heading: political identities versus national ones.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,195
    edited August 3

    MattW said:



    Tax gambling winnings.

    What????????
    I feel the need to go shoe shopping.

    What is the fashionable brick type for riots these days? A cheap brick seems wrong, but a quality engineering brick seems like posing.

    Edit: I have it! I’ll get https://barnthespoon.com/ to run a course on making traditional English cudgels.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 436
    edited August 3

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    So we have British and Irish flags on one side, Pride and Palestine flags on the other.

    How are the Belfast police supposed to deal with that one, given the long history of protest in their city?
    It's fascinating that's where we're heading: political identities versus national ones.
    Astute point.

    Have a like!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    On the latest no toss up maps by RCP Trump is still winning but if Harris can flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Harris wins 270-268.

    If, as expected, she chooses Shapiro as her running mate she will likely be half way there. Anything else, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada are strictly bonus points.

    Personally, I think Harris is now the favourite.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited August 3
    Telegraph have got the big BBC story for tomorrow, and are running it on Saturday lunchtime because they don’t care who else runs it on Sunday.

    “Complaints about high-profile BBC stars are often “ignored”, staff have claimed as the controversy in the wake of the Huw Edwards scandal spreads.

    “The outrage surrounding the disgraced presenter has revealed widespread discontent over internal HR processes at the publicly funded broadcaster.

    “Insiders have claimed that concerns about “talent” or more senior BBC figures are routinely frustrated, giving the impression that “some staff are worth more than others”.

    “Sources describe a ponderous complaints system and say staff have no confidence that issues raised will be resolved, prompting some not to bother.

    “The Telegraph understands these concerns over the HR system were raised with Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, by a group of employees before her meeting last Thursday with Tim Davie, the director-general.

    “More widespread discontent has emerged after several whistleblowers who made complaints about Edwards complained that nothing was done with the evidence they submitted to an internal inquiry.

    “One senior member of staff said that raising concerns within the BBC was both “useless” and “incredibly stressful”.

    “They added: “There is nothing even vaguely supportive about it. It’s cold and heartless and if the behaviour you are complaining about wasn’t witnessed, you are on a hiding to nothing.”

    “Another source said: “Young, junior staff complaining about older, senior, on-screen, so-called ‘talent’, are ignored.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/03/complaints-bbc-talent-ignored-claim-huw-edwards/

    Telegraph *wants* everyone else to be running with this tomorrow.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,968
    This is new to me, although the article is from 2017.

    "'Controlled spontaneity': The secret UK government blueprints shaping post-terror planning

    The British government has prepared for terrorist incidents by pre-planning social media campaigns which are designed to appear to be a spontaneous public response to attacks, Middle East Eye has learned. Hashtags are carefully tested before attacks happen, Instagram images selected, and “impromptu” street posters are printed. In operations that contingency planners term “controlled spontaneity”, politicians’ statements, vigils and inter-faith events are also negotiated and planned in readiness for any terrorist attack."

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mind-control-secret-british-government-blueprints-shaping-post-terror-planning
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    tlg86 said:

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Obviously not been convicted, but what the hell has happened in the intervening years? The line about autism and unwillingness to leave the house or communicate with his family is completely different to what is seen in that trailer.
    There is a noted and known phenomenon of mid/late teens developing a combination of anxiety combined with ADHD and/autism. This leads to some quite bright and apparently happy children turning inwards and self isolating. Known a couple of examples among parents I know. As in refusing to leave their room for anything. Or talk to anyone.

    If the schools aren’t very supportive, this ends up with exclusion for non-attendance and the spiral gets worse.
    There was a guy I went to school with who, on first encountering him in Year 7, was a bit intimidating because he seemed so advanced with his maths and English. Five years later and his GCSEs were nothing special and he was a bit rebellious by 16. My guess is his parents pushed him hard at junior school and it burnt him out. But, that's nothing compared with what you're describing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    edited August 3

    Touch wood, police look to be doing an excellent job.

    Starmer/Cooper know exactly what they’re doing.

    I’m definitely not regretting my labour vote last month.

    Me neither. A reasonable start. Few errors but not a disaster. Sort this out quickly and it’s a great opportunity for them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited August 3
    Andy_JS said:

    This is new to me, although the article is from 2017.

    "'Controlled spontaneity': The secret UK government blueprints shaping post-terror planning

    The British government has prepared for terrorist incidents by pre-planning social media campaigns which are designed to appear to be a spontaneous public response to attacks, Middle East Eye has learned. Hashtags are carefully tested before attacks happen, Instagram images selected, and “impromptu” street posters are printed. In operations that contingency planners term “controlled spontaneity”, politicians’ statements, vigils and inter-faith events are also negotiated and planned in readiness for any terrorist attack."

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mind-control-secret-british-government-blueprints-shaping-post-terror-planning

    It’s why you often hear “victims’ families” trotting out remarkably similar and pacifying statements. “Please don’t use the death of X to create more tension” etc etc

    They are coached into doing it. Those that refuse dont get broadcast. See the present case in Ireland
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Alors. Allez. Béziers!!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689
    DavidL said:

    On the latest no toss up maps by RCP Trump is still winning but if Harris can flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Harris wins 270-268.

    If, as expected, she chooses Shapiro as her running mate she will likely be half way there. Anything else, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada are strictly bonus points.

    Personally, I think Harris is now the favourite.

    Harris is the current betting fav for all 3 rustbelt swing states.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,724
    tlg86 said:

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Obviously not been convicted, but what the hell has happened in the intervening years? The line about autism and unwillingness to leave the house or communicate with his family is completely different to what is seen in that trailer.
    puberty
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Plus ancienne ville de France!!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Andy_JS said:

    MattW said:

    This is a list from Guido this week (source Dan Neidle - big Labour advisor aiui) of things that may be on Rachel Reeves' "where to find money" laundry list.

    It looks like quite a good list of places to start. To me the main thing missing is probably around property companies & charities used as tax shelters, and trusts.

    To repeat a question I asked earlier this week - does anyone have a number for how much the interest cut will save out Government?

    It will a tricky balance to strike, and the DM will be all shrieked out.

    Pension Reforms:

    Scrap the pension tax relief.
    End the pension tax free lump sum.

    Inheritance and Wealth Taxes:

    Limiting inheritance tax reliefs.
    Increase inheritance tax on trusts.
    Wealth tax – targetting those with assets.
    Gift tax.

    Capital Gains and Investment Taxes

    Increase capital gains tax.
    Abolish business asset disposal relief.
    Cap tax relief on ISAs.

    Property and Real Estate Taxes

    Eliminate the stamp duty “loophole” for enveloped commercial property.
    Increase ATED.
    Council tax increases for valuable property.
    Consumption Taxes

    Reverse the Tories’ cancellation of the fuel duty rise.

    Increase vehicle excise duty.
    Tax gambling winnings.

    The last one is unacceptable.
    Not if losses are tax deductible...

    ...which is the whole reason gambling winnings are not taxed at present.

    Most people lose, so this would not be a net positive for the exchequer...
  • Why is London Bridge Station full of police and people singing "We are Millwall. No one likes us. We don't care"

    Time to head ba
    MattW said:

    Well.

    Ending Israel’s occupation of Palestine is moral necessity, says Justin Welby

    Archbishop of Canterbury calls for UK to support United Nations court ruling that annexation is ‘unlawful’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/02/end-israel-occupation-of-palestine-justin-welby/

    (First of all noting that this is from the Telegrunt.)

    I think both the ECJ and Welby (of whom I'm generally a fan) are being naif here.

    He called on all United Nations member states – which includes the UK – to “respond positively” to the non-binding ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and for the “realisation of the Palestinian people’s fundamental right to self-determination”.

    IMO that can't happen practically until the wider conflict in the ME - especially 'Iran' vs 'Saudi Arabia' - is in some way defused. Palestinian territories are a war zone, and imo a cause of the recent Hamas initiated conflict was Israel's progress in coming to normalisation agreements with Arab countries.

    Iran can't be having that.

    Israel withdrew from Gaza to the 1967 Green Line in 2005, and look what happened.
    Well if they will use Green Line. Not that there are many Green Line services left.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,968
    edited August 3
    "Labour MP Rachel Reeves: Riots could sweep streets of Britain if immigration is not curbed after Brexit
    Former Shadow Cabinet minister says voters want end to freedom of movement

    Caroline Mortimer
    Wednesday 28 September 2016 16:07 BST


    Speaking at a fringe event at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool on Tuesday afternoon, the Leeds West MP said the party must listen to voters’ concerns. She said: "We have got to get this right because there are bubbling tensions in this country that I just think could explode. "You had those riots in 2011... If riots started again in Leeds and bits of my constituency - it's like a tinderbox.""

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-reeves-brexit-immigration-labour-mp-riots-uk-conference-speech-a7334266.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,195
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Obviously not been convicted, but what the hell has happened in the intervening years? The line about autism and unwillingness to leave the house or communicate with his family is completely different to what is seen in that trailer.
    There is a noted and known phenomenon of mid/late teens developing a combination of anxiety combined with ADHD and/autism. This leads to some quite bright and apparently happy children turning inwards and self isolating. Known a couple of examples among parents I know. As in refusing to leave their room for anything. Or talk to anyone.

    If the schools aren’t very supportive, this ends up with exclusion for non-attendance and the spiral gets worse.
    There was a guy I went to school with who, on first encountering him in Year 7, was a bit intimidating because he seemed so advanced with his maths and English. Five years later and his GCSEs were nothing special and he was a bit rebellious by 16. My guess is his parents pushed him hard at junior school and it burnt him out. But, that's nothing compared with what you're describing.
    Yup - that sounds like teenagers being teenagers.

    The kids who go through this describe being full of anger and fear. Both are almost without target - they feel inadequate and quite self loathing, but it is far more than that.

    The school my youngest goes to (private) is trying all the staff to deal with a wave of socialisation problems like this. Usually goes undiagnosed in most state schools - apart from excluding the children if they get really bad.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,462
    edited August 3

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Free money’: £4bn lost to fraud and error on flagship HMRC ‘innovation’ scheme
    UK tax credits to promote research and development were claimed by a pub for changing its menus and by window cleaners for hanging their buckets
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/03/free-money-4bn-lost-to-and-error-on-flagship-hmrc-innovation-scheme
    ..New figures published in HM Revenue and Customs’ annual report last week reveal that the estimated cost of fraud and error in the scheme was more than £4.1bn from 2020-21 to 2023-24. HMRC says expenditure on the reliefs in 2023-24 was £7.7bn.

    The scale of the abuse of tax credits has emerged as Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pledges to crack down on tax fraud and non-compliance. Labour hopes to raise £5bn by the end of this parliament by recovering more tax revenues. Tax officials said that the error and fraud in R&D tax relief revealed in the report was “clearly unacceptable” and the public would expect action.

    Colin Hailey, a technology tax expert who has given evidence to parliament on the tax reliefs, said he and other advisers were warning about the abuses in the scheme more than six years ago. ..

    The headline is a bit misleading, window cleaners claim for hanging their buckets was thrown out. Its a bit Daily Mail where they got two terrible examples, of which one didn't even qualify. However, the HMRC being dysfunctional, anybody with a small business will tell you that.
    Aiui the problem is that anything done for the first time, like a new menu, could be classed as research and development. (eta which to be fair is roughly what the article says but if HMRC accepted these claims, in what sense are they abuse?)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    DavidL said:

    On the latest no toss up maps by RCP Trump is still winning but if Harris can flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Harris wins 270-268.

    If, as expected, she chooses Shapiro as her running mate she will likely be half way there. Anything else, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada are strictly bonus points.

    Personally, I think Harris is now the favourite.

    Alex Thompson
    @AlexThomp
    ·
    1h
    New: Pennsylvania is the new Florida/Ohio.

    Harris and Trump have been going all in—they have spent or booked >$210 million in TV/digital/radio ads so far.

    More than 2x any other swing state.
  • WillG said:

    Atlantic currents that warm Europe sizable risk of collapse in next couple of decades, potentially devastating British agriculture.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/

    Doubt China and India care. They are more worried about running out of coal in a few years
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    NEW THREAD

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038

    DavidL said:

    On the latest no toss up maps by RCP Trump is still winning but if Harris can flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Harris wins 270-268.

    If, as expected, she chooses Shapiro as her running mate she will likely be half way there. Anything else, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada are strictly bonus points.

    Personally, I think Harris is now the favourite.

    Alex Thompson
    @AlexThomp
    ·
    1h
    New: Pennsylvania is the new Florida/Ohio.

    Harris and Trump have been going all in—they have spent or booked >$210 million in TV/digital/radio ads so far.

    More than 2x any other swing state.
    I (and many others) have been saying this for weeks. Its why Shapiro will be VP too. It is the key to door for Harris and it is hard for Trump to get to 269 without it.
This discussion has been closed.