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Are we underestimating the chances of James Cleverly? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.”
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1819702668756918525

    The old criminal appears to believe that there's a "conflict of interest" with ABC, so is demanding that the notoriously impartial Fox News hosts, and a crowd of his choice.

    He really must be kicking himself that he didn't skip the first debate with Biden. He should have waited until he was the confirmed nominee.
    The suggestion is that the Dems orchestrated that debate to allow them to switch candidate. It was held at their instigation, outside of the usual debate schedule. Trump was always going to agree to debate Biden at any time and anywhere, so they took advantage of him to enable the switch to Harris.
    Unfair of the Dems to choose a candidate that might win against their opponents.
    “Choose” is doing a lot of work there, given the way in which one candidate was swapped for another, with very little process getting in the way of the coronation of Harris.
    Choose us exactly what they've done.

    It's frankly bizarre that conservatives seem to think they get a say in how their opponents choose their candidate. All the polls suggest that Harris has the overwhelming support of Democratic voters for the nomination.

    If the GOP are sore about it, that's tough.

    And I don't think you understand what coronation means.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is new to me, although the article is from 2017.

    "'Controlled spontaneity': The secret UK government blueprints shaping post-terror planning

    The British government has prepared for terrorist incidents by pre-planning social media campaigns which are designed to appear to be a spontaneous public response to attacks, Middle East Eye has learned. Hashtags are carefully tested before attacks happen, Instagram images selected, and “impromptu” street posters are printed. In operations that contingency planners term “controlled spontaneity”, politicians’ statements, vigils and inter-faith events are also negotiated and planned in readiness for any terrorist attack."

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mind-control-secret-british-government-blueprints-shaping-post-terror-planning

    It’s why you often hear “victims’ families” trotting out remarkably similar and pacifying statements. “Please don’t use the death of X to create more tension” etc etc

    They are coached into doing it. Those that refuse dont get broadcast. See the present case in Ireland
    You have remarkably little faith in your own profession.
  • tlg86 said:

    Someone mentioned on here that Britain is beginning to resemble the sectarianism of Northern Ireland. Well...

    https://x.com/TVconormac/status/1819693623581315090

    Angry scenes at Belfast City Hall as pro and anti-immigrant protests face off. Public order police now being brought in

    Note the Irish and British flags on the same side.

    My enemies enemy is my friend.

    Actually, delve back into Irish history and you will find that the United Irishmen rebellion which precipitated the union was led by a nonconformist Protestant, Wolfe Tone. It was a revolt by Catholics and nonconformist protestants against the British (C of I and Landowners) Establishment.

    Extensive use of divide and rule by the British was used to split this alliance up.

    The chuckle brothers did have a historical precedent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    edited August 3

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Oh dear...

    "The BBC has removed a 2018 Children in Need campaign video from its websites after it emerged it featured the Southport stabbing suspect."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced3dxeplp9o

    Obviously not been convicted, but what the hell has happened in the intervening years? The line about autism and unwillingness to leave the house or communicate with his family is completely different to what is seen in that trailer.
    There is a noted and known phenomenon of mid/late teens developing a combination of anxiety combined with ADHD and/autism. This leads to some quite bright and apparently happy children turning inwards and self isolating. Known a couple of examples among parents I know. As in refusing to leave their room for anything. Or talk to anyone.

    If the schools aren’t very supportive, this ends up with exclusion for non-attendance and the spiral gets worse.
    There was a guy I went to school with who, on first encountering him in Year 7, was a bit intimidating because he seemed so advanced with his maths and English. Five years later and his GCSEs were nothing special and he was a bit rebellious by 16. My guess is his parents pushed him hard at junior school and it burnt him out. But, that's nothing compared with what you're describing.
    Yup - that sounds like teenagers being teenagers.

    The kids who go through this describe being full of anger and fear. Both are almost without target - they feel inadequate and quite self loathing, but it is far more than that.

    The school my youngest goes to (private) is trying all the staff to deal with a wave of socialisation problems like this. Usually goes undiagnosed in most state schools - apart from excluding the children if they get really bad.
    Yes. There's a lot in this. It's about growing up, hormones and the rest, and also medical conditions and social conditions / conditioning.

    In addition to Aristotle's “Give me a child until he is 7 and I will show you the man.” and the Jesuit (and anybody else's) similar statements, the same goes for the ages 15 through the end of University - when we are all finding our attitudes for the first time.

    Which is why everybody from mainstream political parties and religions and any other groups, through the edgy (Hunt Sabs, fringe religions or religious sects) and over the edge (SWP, Al-Muhajiroun, far right groups etc) all aim for University age, with the aim of getting disciples and making them into committed members. At the edge cult-recruitment techniques apply.

    Most grow up, ask questions, and get a perspective and a balance. Some do not.

    Later life converts to whatever can be similar, especially if the recruiters seek to manipulate via social isolation etc.

    Turning someone into a killer by age 17 is probably unusual, if this is what happened here.

    A very perceptive comment I heard back in 1991 from a now-retired Church of England bishop called Graham Cray, who's lens into youth culture was via his interest in rock music, was that recruits at 15-18 were likely to be driven by fashion, and the things that make teenagers, teenagers, and so may not last. So that for understanding developing culture in order to relate to it (for him as an open evangelical Christian) it was wiser to work with young adults aged 18-30, who were in a position to make mature decisions and evaluate whether a particular weltanschauung ("philosophy of life") was for them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    The usual pinch of salt needed, but Ukraine claim to have hit a submarine again:

    "The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian submarine and an S-400 missile system in occupied Crimea. Four S-400 launchers were significantly damaged. The B-237 "Rostov-on-Don" submarine, hit in Sevastopol port, sank immediately. The submarine, valued at $300 million, was undergoing repairs after a previous attack in September 2023"

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1819731752924975447
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,860
    FWIW: In the last two US censuses, I have checked "other", and then filled in "American" in the space provided for an explanation. It's a mild protest, but I was pleased to see that others have joined me.
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