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If only Sunak had waited a fortnight? – politicalbetting.com
If only Sunak had waited a fortnight? – politicalbetting.com
No. I really don’t like this at all. https://t.co/9Pd5sGQ0y5
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No. I really don’t like this at all. https://t.co/9Pd5sGQ0y5
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So he was really keen to do SOMETHING
Or maybe not quite yet!
The nasty bit where the killer is slotted has been blurred out, so it's SFW
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87rvg61vrxo
Sandpit?
'@groundrush
RIP Thomas Crooks. An American hero who died trying to take out the garbage.'
https://x.com/groundrush/status/1812509555986772256
6-2, 6-2, 7-6
@FrankLuntz
·
34m
The political fallout from yesterday:
• Trump supporters will be energized.
• Biden supporters will be demoralized.
• Every Trump supporter will now be a Trump voter. But some Democrats will end up staying home.
Biden was already in serious trouble on the swing states.
I think if he hammers home that he won’t impose a Federal ban on abortion, then he’s probably home and dry. The “probably” is because there is still a window for a non Biden/Harris Dem candidate that beats him.
Hopefully it's the end of the mutual tugfest the bedwetting broadly liberal media and Democrats petrified of being a couple of points behind in polls had.
It is where the remaining 4% go who voted for Biden in 2020 that will decide the election
Biden could be shot himself. Biden could have a stroke and be replaced. Trump could have a mental issue in a debate that makes him appear the one with serious mental decline. Trump's minor wound could get infected.
I'd make Trump a 60-70% chance of winning the election... and that's moved very slightly up on where it was last week. But given "events" there is no high and dry about it.
Attempted assassinations (and even actual assassinations) move media narratives more than actual votes. Go back and read the PB comments from 2016 when Jo Cox was murdered: there was dismay (almost pathological dismay in retrospect) from the Brexit side that this was going to result in their defeat at the hands of Remain. It did not.
"Woke up thinking about this and I’m still stunned. I’ve been as big a Trump critic as anyone else on the right over the past couple of years, but what happened last night, Trump’s brave, defiant reaction, and especially the stunning photos that captured it, stirred something in me that I never knew was there. Somehow, I want to run through a wall for someone I worked against the entire primary cycle. If this didn’t change the world, it certainly changed me."
https://x.com/SKMorefield/status/1812462961996202442
If this is representative, then Luntz is right. The effect of the sassytempt will be to energize and unify theAmerican Right. They will come together, and be much more fierce in taking on the Dems
Because the guy didn't succeed?
There's a lot we still don't know here.
Sorry, excitement junkies.
Are you OK?
This is the most consequential act of political violence in the USA since the Kennedys got shot
At the same time it likely means Biden stays, at least for now, because all the momentum to remove him will be diffused as the focus falls on Trump
And they will be scared by the united anger of the GOP
Predictions are hard esp about the future. Maybe this will bring home to the Dems the reality of mortality to really old fucks and they will sack Biden. Maybe Biden will express regret about the recent death of president Lincoln. We don't know.
However I agree that this does not make Trump 2.0 a certainty. Surely, if we've learned anything in recent months and years, it's that the drama never stops. Malheureusement. There could be multiple new twists before November 2024
Like you I'd make Trump about a 70% chance to win right now. If nothing else major happens and it is Trump v Biden in November I'd make Trump 95% likely to win. But that relies on NOTHING ELSE HAPPENING
Sporting rivalry is at the heart of football.
It was a daft comment, but I'm sure you will recover your wits
I am having a chilled-out day on PB, coz I've been working hard on flints all week, but now they're done. Also, this is a genunely dramatic day in politics - one of the most dramatic any of us can recall - and like all PBers I am fascinated by the details and ramifications of political events
You'll be pleased to hear I am returning to work and life tomorrow
It's a brilliant book, because Laura talks about the history, the politics and the GBU of the network. And about a lot of people she met along the way.
She did a presentation at Active Travel Cafe last week, but I missed most of it because reasons, and the video is not up yet. There's talk about a rebrand at some point to include walking, as the journeys are much of both. But there are thousand of signs saying "NCN", so it's either some way off or someone needs a good thesaurus.
I've just got the e-book as my free trial for audible.
I'm quite impressed with Louise Haigh so far, as she seems open to changing her mind. She went from "Cycle in Sheffield - have you seen the hills?" to "E-cycles are great!" after borrowing one.
I need to know what colour her hair is though, she's just gone from ginger to blonde.
https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/
However, The National’s headline is unacceptable, and no better than something printed by the Sun or the Star. I haven’t read The National for years, and wouldn’t mourn it’s demise, any more than I would mourn the demise of the Mail, the Express or even the Flint Knappers Gazette.
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MEGHAN SCHILLER
@MeghanKDKA
#NEW: We are hearing from the first classmate of Thomas Crooks. His Bethel Park classmate described him as a loner who was bullied relentlessly and wore “hunting” outfits often in class.
@KDKA
"So, has anyone found any legitimate accounts or profiles for Thomas Matthew Crooks on any online platform?"
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1812391799782019519
WTF is going on?
That's the nature of the beast.
Remember when Prince Charles was attacked on stage? That happened despite the security around him, and the fact he was an obvious target for Irish terrorists. One failure, and fortunately the perpetrator did not have fatal intent. But how many schemes did the security prevent? We cannot know; they probably cannot be sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kang
"Open-source intelligence analysts reported that Crooks didn’t appear to use mainstream social media channels such as Facebook or Instagram and had an almost negligible internet footprint, which is highly unusual for a 20-year-old. Instead, analysts said that Crooks corresponded with friends and associates on a Discord server that they were now trying to access"
Telegraph
I also like the idea of "terrorism football" winning a tournament to irritate everyone who thinks Pep's Barca is the only way to play the game.
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump declares that he cannot trust law enforcement to keep him safe while Biden is president, and therefore he is employing his own mercs for the job. Now THAT would be a notable plot point, if you believe the worst about DJT.
Also a 20 year old who tried to assassinate a president turns out to be socially a bit atypical. What are the odds?
Reagan's attempted assassination was by a lone wolf - but even in his case, there were warning signs. It should also be noted that he also considered killing Carter as well - it was not a party=political act as such. The same was true for the murder of David Amess a few years ago, where the attacker looked at killing MPs from several parties.
That's why it'll be interesting to know what sort of comms this guy had beforehand. If he was a lone wolf, then that makes the security service's job much harder.
But surely the most obvious way of preventing this sort of thing would be to make guns much, much harder to access. Which would also have the advantage of saving thousands of other lives. But I guess that's too obvious.
Top Democratic sources believe that Democrats who had thoughts about challenging President Biden are now standing down "because of this fragile political moment," @CostaReports reports.
Concerns about Biden's debate performance "faded almost instantly" after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, with Democratic sources say the party should stay cool at a turbulent time.
In a show of solidarity, Farage said he will travel to the U.S. in the coming days to meet with Trump. Previous plans by Farage to attend the Pennsylvania rally where the shooting took place were cancelled due to Reform UK leader’s recent election to the British parliament.
That must be the most nakedly xenophobic newspaper front cover I've ever seen.
Some misguided, unfortunate 20 year old loser in a land of freely available automatic weapons unfortunately took someone's life, grazed Trump's ear and died during his foolish misadventure. Other than the Trump's ear bit it's a story that plays out in the USA day in day out.