Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
Whom do they envisage be promoted as deputy speaker from the LD bench? Should be a senior MP with experience and the only one is Tim Farron. Can’t see it.
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Dreadful news re the Trump assassination attempt. Sadly it has to improve his chances of being next POTUS. And it moves the discussion away from Biden’s infirmity so helps Biden’s chances and weakens those of Kamala. I’ve reversed most of my bets on Kamala and backed Biden at 7.6. So I’m now more GREEN Biden than Harris, RED on Trump but I might be able to get out near quits once it’s a two horse race, depending on how the market settles.
Why?
My guess is it makes no difference and by November this won't seem significant at all.
I've laid Trump a bit this morning. 1.5 is just too short.
It’s a fair question. How does this help Trump?
Perhaps
1. It makes trump-maybe voters more determined to vote?
2. It means Biden probably stays as the focus moves away from his infirmity = good for trump
Yes.
1. It depicts Trump in the role of hero. A voter who is hesitating whether to vote for Trump or Biden and who feels that the legal system has wrongly been trying to stop Trump's candidacy will, like all of us, be outraged by this assassination attempt and may now tip in favour of Trump to reward his bravery in standing and as a vote for democracy.
2. It increases the likelihood of Biden staying in the race and it's hard to see Biden winning with his infirmity. But ironically it may also strengthen Biden's candidacy. As the incumbent and Commander in Chief at a time of national peril his waning authority may get a boost.
Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
It looks like Conservative Fears so far, but how relevant do they think a party with 130 MPs ought to be? Especially when you rule out the ones who are too young and callow, too old and silly and to associated with the last government and discredited?
On the specific issue, is there any precedent for the third party being a bit more than half the size of the second? Council proportionality rules would probably point to C1:LD1 for the opposition speakers.
Finally, wasn't there a doctrine proposed in the Brexit Wars that the executive controlled the agenda and that anything else was an abomination?
But mostly- yes, the Conservatives are irrelevant for the next four years at least. That's what happens when you have had a landslide defeat.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
What a bizarre threader as America unravels. Really?
Stay off the tw@tter machine, repeat stay off the tw@tter machine...
TwiX just needs to be used with intelligence, and it’s a wonderful source
SO ABOUT THOSE CONSPIRACY THEORIES
I see at least six. It’s delicious
1. The Dems actually did it, hiring some incel shooter and using the secret service
2. The secret service, with the tacit encouragement of the Dems, kinda allowed it with lax security
3. It’s a lone lucky gunman that missed, fired up by anti Trump Dem rhetoric
4. It’s an anti-Trump REPUBLICAN or patriot, but fired up by same Dem rhetoric
5. It was all staged by Trump to make him a martyr
6. Just a complete loony and random, might easily have shot at Biden or Taylor Swift
Right now I’d say a mix of 3 or 4. But could be 2 or 6
Of those options it's 3, 4 or an outside chance of 6.
As for the "it was a Ukrainian" theory it's not, the gunman has been identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a local from Pennsylvania.
I think this helps Trump in the short term but it also takes the focus off Biden's deteriorating mental faculties and any momentum there was to get rid of him has now stalled which I think is what gets Trump over the line.
Yes, 3 or 4 seem most likely. It's hard to escape the "this man is a threat to all you hold dear/Hitler" narrative which has been ramped up in the last month or so. He had four years to start putting people in concentrations camps, invading the Sudetenland, burning down democratic chambers and waging war on foreign states. He didnt do any of that, he just had on obnoxious twitter account and acted like a petulant child.
I wonder what the optimum time would have been for Hitler to have died and be remembered as a great leader ?
Late 1938 after gaining the Sudentenland Spring 1939 after gaining Bohemia-Moravia Late 1939 after defeating Poiland Summer 1940 after defeating France Autumn 1941 after the Kyiv or Vyazma encirclements.
Perhaps I’m reading it wrong, but your question seems to infer, to me at least, a feeling that Hitler was essentially right but, unfortunately, he just went a bit too far.
But it prompts me to say, so you think the 1933 Enabling Act and everything that flowed from it denote a great leader? Slinging political opponents into Dachau without trial? That murdering political opponents, including let’s not forget erstwhile allies such as Rohm, is great? Ending democracy and free speech is simply strong leadership? You would overlook the Aktion T4 programme and embryonic stirrings of Aktion Rheinhardt and Auschwitz? The relentless, all pervasive anti-semitism? The Nazification and indoctrination of an entire society?
At the very least, even if he had died after the Sudetenland, his legacy would be problematic. It’s not just about territorial gains.
Hitler thanked divine providence for saving him from multiple assassination attempts, claiming fate was protecting him is he could complete his historic mission. Expect similar rhetoric from Trump and his deranged supporters. And a similar reining in of freedom and forced conformity if he’s re-elected.
Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
Whom do they envisage be promoted as deputy speaker from the LD bench? Should be a senior MP with experience and the only one is Tim Farron. Can’t see it.
What a bizarre threader as America unravels. Really?
Stay off the tw@tter machine, repeat stay off the tw@tter machine...
TwiX just needs to be used with intelligence, and it’s a wonderful source
SO ABOUT THOSE CONSPIRACY THEORIES
I see at least six. It’s delicious
1. The Dems actually did it, hiring some incel shooter and using the secret service
2. The secret service, with the tacit encouragement of the Dems, kinda allowed it with lax security
3. It’s a lone lucky gunman that missed, fired up by anti Trump Dem rhetoric
4. It’s an anti-Trump REPUBLICAN or patriot, but fired up by same Dem rhetoric
5. It was all staged by Trump to make him a martyr
6. Just a complete loony and random, might easily have shot at Biden or Taylor Swift
Right now I’d say a mix of 3 or 4. But could be 2 or 6
Of those options it's 3, 4 or an outside chance of 6.
As for the "it was a Ukrainian" theory it's not, the gunman has been identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a local from Pennsylvania.
I think this helps Trump in the short term but it also takes the focus off Biden's deteriorating mental faculties and any momentum there was to get rid of him has now stalled which I think is what gets Trump over the line.
Why so dismissive of 6?
Seems to me to be the same as the loonies who shoot up a school or a cinema - suicide by cop, but going out with a bang
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
I think Trump raising his fist and shouting fight , fight , fight as he’s whisked away looks pathetic IMO.
Trump has done many many odious and repulsive and pathetic things, but that REALLY REALLY wasn't one of them
The photo is an image of iconic defiance, and it will be seen as such by tens of millions of Americans (and others around the world). And the VIDEO of him. bleeding, and saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" is even more powerful
This tweet has been seen by 13 million people. so far
Dreadful news re the Trump assassination attempt. Sadly it has to improve his chances of being next POTUS. And it moves the discussion away from Biden’s infirmity so helps Biden’s chances and weakens those of Kamala. I’ve reversed most of my bets on Kamala and backed Biden at 7.6. So I’m now more GREEN Biden than Harris, RED on Trump but I might be able to get out near quits once it’s a two horse race, depending on how the market settles.
Why?
My guess is it makes no difference and by November this won't seem significant at all.
I've laid Trump a bit this morning. 1.5 is just too short.
It’s a fair question. How does this help Trump?
Perhaps
1. It makes trump-maybe voters more determined to vote?
2. It means Biden probably stays as the focus moves away from his infirmity = good for trump
Yes.
1. It depicts Trump in the role of hero. A voter who is hesitating whether to vote for Trump or Biden and who feels that the legal system has wrongly been trying to stop Trump's candidacy will, like all of us, be outraged by this assassination attempt and may now tip in favour of Trump to reward his bravery in standing and as a vote for democracy.
2. It increases the likelihood of Biden staying in the race and it's hard to see Biden winning with his infirmity. But ironically it may also strengthen Biden's candidacy. As the incumbent and Commander in Chief at a time of national peril his waning authority may get a boost.
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
They will try and kill Trump AGAIN, quite possibly
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
I'm glad you've cleared up the case so quickly Miss Marple.
It has by no means been demonstrated either that the would-be assassin was a Republican supporter, or that this wasn't 'a conspiracy' - given that it was a plot to shoot a hated and feared Presidential candidate.
On topic, I'm sure there's a distinction between Great Leaders and Good Leaders. A lot of Great Leaders turn out disastrously for their nations, whereas Good Leaders get on with quiet improvements. But we hear about the Great Leaders, because they're more fun to write about and read about.
That line from The Third Man feels relevant;
You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.
Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
Whom do they envisage be promoted as deputy speaker from the LD bench? Should be a senior MP with experience and the only one is Tim Farron. Can’t see it.
An independent? Corbyn? Don’t be silly.
Alistair Carmichael?
Andrew George?
Could it be a ScotNat?
I don't remember that happening even when the SNP were a third party in the last Parliament.
Meanwhile back home, here’s my picture for today, taken from a tweet:
That’s Britain-Anchorage, right there.
See? I’m even right about long term, geographically specific climate change
10 months, so I wouldn’t ascribe it to climate change just yet (I bloody hope not).
The whole effort to attribute weather events to climate change is so tedious and based on very little actual scientific underpinning. It's little more than blaming the angry sun gods. Climate is a many decade thing. So many weather patterns are just completely beyond our understanding other than observational. If we have a very wet summer, then some how this would have been predicted by climate change, a very dry one, a very hot one, a very cold one. It just allows the normal fluctuation of the weather, even in what seem to be extremes to be put down to climate change. And for every one of these scenarios there's someone out there saying the reason it is XYZ is because of ABC. But ABC that predicted XYZ is only ever after the fact.
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
We've seen bits of that here already, and we only get little bits of bubble floating across the Atlantic.
Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
Whom do they envisage be promoted as deputy speaker from the LD bench? Should be a senior MP with experience and the only one is Tim Farron. Can’t see it.
An independent? Corbyn? Don’t be silly.
The cupboard may not be quite that bear.
I haven't got a handle either on how much MP experience is appropriate before becoming a Deputy Speaker, or (which may be relevant) how many "new" LD MPs are old ones returning.
Lindsay Hoyle was first elected in 1997, and a Deputy Speaker from 2010. So perhaps ~10 years is a good yardstick.
In returning former LD MPs, there are people like Tessa Munt (2010-2015), Andrew George (1997-2015) - but I don't know LDs well enough then or now to pick them all out. There are also existing MPs with experience from 2017, plus the 2015 "taxi-cab plus a trandem" batch.
Ed Davey has to think about at least: MPs needing to fortify their constituencies, front bench spokespeople, and resource to mentoring of new MPs to be effective Lib Dem Parliamentarians. LD Lords will have things to do on the last of those as mentors, I expect.
Reading the "new LD MP" summaries, there are people with very significant life, political and organisational experience.
It's a Chinese puzzle. I wish them luck.
On the T, this could just be the next bit of pathetic frothing as the Conservatives whine about being subject the same rules they happily imposed on everyone else.
Good morning everyone. I think we need a bit of OT today.
So my question: who is your most 'differently interesting' famous local? For cities I'll give you within one mile, for everyone else within 5 miles.
I'll have two:
- Percy Toplis the Monocled Mutineer, from South Normanton / Blackwell. - Harold Lloyd, the cricketer, from Nuncargate, Kirkby-in-Ashfield. It has a very good working class not-at-all-poncy butcher, which I appreciate.
My photo for the day is Larwood bowling to a full "Leg Theory" field.
Gazza is from less than a mile away from where I was brought up.
Is he sufficiently 'differently interesting'?
We’re spoilt for choice of differently interesting people who lived in Brockley. My top 3 would be Lily Langtry, mistress of Edward VII; Kate Bush, the archetype of differently interesting; and Spike Milligan.
With an honourable mention for death metal band Pagan Altar, who penned the track The Devil Came Down to Brockley.
I'm spoiled for choice in Barnes too.
Chris Patton Gyles Brandreth (same road) Gary Lineker Brian May Patricia Hodge Stanley Tucci (opposite my daughter) Holly Willoughby Duffy Niamh Cusack Ronan Keating Peter Snow Zac Goldsmith
No longer alive: Ninette de Valois Jan Pienkowski Clive Dunn Jimmy Edwards Rik Mayall John Pertwee Terry Thomas Marc Bolan Carl Davis Gustav Holst (music teacher at St Pauls) Freddie Mercury Henry Fielding
I'd do not share Max's optimism if either of those two make it through to the run off.
The real question is the make up of the Tory MPs, and will they put two more moderate candidates forward?
I suspect Braverman has soiled herself so publicly post election that she doesn't make the cut. Jenrick on the other hand has been more measured in his critique of the government to which he belonged, although he does seem to have misremembered that he was an immigration minister.
He will falsely spin the claim that he resigned from the post because he was not being allowed to do what was necessary.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
Perhaps you agree with CNN here, that 5 seconds after nearly dying by a gunshot Trump should have "tamped down the rhetoric"
"CNN's Jamie Gangel attacks Trump for saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" after someone tried to murder him.
Literally, she complains about what he did 5 seconds after he was shot
"That's not the message that we want to being sending right now. We want to tamp it down""
lol. Lefties hate Trump so much they are mental. They are more dangerous than Trump. That is the takeaway here
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
Perhaps you agree with CNN here, that 5 secinds after nearly dying by a gunshot Trump should have "tamped down the rhetoric"
"CNN's Jamie Gangel attacks Trump for saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" after someone tried to murder him.
Literally, she complains about what he did 5 seconds after he was shot
"That's not the message that we want to being sending right now. We want to tamp it down""
lol. Lefties hate Trump so much they are mental. They are more dangerous than Trump. That is the takeaway here
I think Trump is now likely to win the elections. Being bloodied but surviving an assassination attempt is a `black swan` event.
Let's see how it looks this time next week (hint: ancient history).
Sure. Things do change but four months to the election, this puts him on the front foot. In most nations, the sympathy vote would win him the election.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
The odd thing about the shooting is that Trump is stood up and walked to a car by the Secret Service, presenting a larger target than if they'd kept him on stage, on the ground.
Reminds me this:
Or the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand: First assassin fails to act, second assassin fails to act, third assassin's bomb bounces off and hits the next car, driver takes a wrong turn, stalls trying to reverse and gets his guy shot by the fourth assassin.
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
I'm glad you've cleared up the case so quickly Miss Marple.
It has by no means been demonstrated either that the would-be assassin was a Republican supporter, or that this wasn't 'a conspiracy' - given that it was a plot to shoot a hated and feared Presidential candidate.
The shooter has been identified. Unless you're suggesting that his GOP / Gun stuff is a cover story to hide the truth?
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
I think Trump raising his fist and shouting fight , fight , fight as he’s whisked away looks pathetic IMO.
Trump has done many many odious and repulsive and pathetic things, but that REALLY REALLY wasn't one of them
The photo is an image of iconic defiance, and it will be seen as such by tens of millions of Americans (and others around the world). And the VIDEO of him. bleeding, and saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" is even more powerful
This tweet has been seen by 13 million people. so far
Quite, the juxtaposition of him defiantly standing up after been hit by a bullet in an assassination attempt in total defiance, the determination and strength of someone half his age, compared to Biden, who not soiling himself on camera is considered a successful event wont be missed.
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
I largely, if reluctantly, agree with this. In particular the UK needs to coordinate with the rest of Europe to ensure that if the worst happens in January next year Europe can support Ukraine sufficiently for them to drive the Russians from their soil. That requires significant investment in arms manufacture and it requires it now. We cannot wait until November and hope.
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
I'm glad you've cleared up the case so quickly Miss Marple.
It has by no means been demonstrated either that the would-be assassin was a Republican supporter, or that this wasn't 'a conspiracy' - given that it was a plot to shoot a hated and feared Presidential candidate.
The shooter has been identified. Unless you're suggesting that his GOP / Gun stuff is a cover story to hide the truth?
There are also hints he has recently donated to the Dems. As yet unproven. We shall see
Mr. Romford, while much diminished, the Conservatives are the Official Opposition. Edited extra bit: Holding the Government of the account is their job now, and reducing their capacity to do that with a Lab-Lib deal, should such a thing exist, would be to reduce the effectiveness of Parliament.
Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
Whom do they envisage be promoted as deputy speaker from the LD bench? Should be a senior MP with experience and the only one is Tim Farron. Can’t see it.
An independent? Corbyn? Don’t be silly.
Alistair Carmichael?
Not a Lib Dem, but Pete Wishart would love the job.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
Perhaps you agree with CNN here, that 5 seconds after nearly dying by a gunshot Trump should have "tamped down the rhetoric"
"CNN's Jamie Gangel attacks Trump for saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" after someone tried to murder him.
Literally, she complains about what he did 5 seconds after he was shot
"That's not the message that we want to being sending right now. We want to tamp it down""
lol. Lefties hate Trump so much they are mental. They are more dangerous than Trump. That is the takeaway here
Both sides hate each other - and for good reason. The right hate what the left are turning America into, the left fear what the right want to turn America into.
As for "Fight Fight Fight". Trump is a politician instinctively seizing the opportunity given to him by his brush with death. Him saying that won't incite violence. Him nearly being assassinated IS violence and we're going to see a lot more of it now whether he says "Fight Fight Fight" or not.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
No sane European country is ever going to engage with a UK government containing Ed Miliband.
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
I'm glad you've cleared up the case so quickly Miss Marple.
It has by no means been demonstrated either that the would-be assassin was a Republican supporter, or that this wasn't 'a conspiracy' - given that it was a plot to shoot a hated and feared Presidential candidate.
The shooter has been identified. Unless you're suggesting that his GOP / Gun stuff is a cover story to hide the truth?
There are also hints he has recently donated to the Dems. As yet unproven. We shall see
EDF are looking for investors to put another £5 billion into Hinkley C nuclear power station. Good luck with that!
Those EDF Board members who resigned before the morning before the decision to go ahead was taken are looking like the smartest guys in the room. (It now won't start production until at least 2029 BTW.)
This video is somewhat unfortunate....we are under fire, under fire, we are taking cover...in the background people wandering about slowly without a care in the world, cars drive by at normal speeds, etc.
The odd thing about the shooting is that Trump is stood up and walked to a car by the Secret Service, presenting a larger target than if they'd kept him on stage, on the ground.
(And that he asked for his shoes. Does he take his shoes off to speak?)
The shoes thing, i think that is just the weird thing people do / say after shock.
Them getting him up, you here one who is clearly in charge saying ahooter down, shooter down...then they are surrounding him as a human shield. I am guessing this is the procedure.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
I'm not sure if it would make much difference over what MAGA have planned in anyway.
It's hard to make them loopier, or more deranged, or more corrupt, or more criminal, or more hypocritical, or more generally poisonous for the USA, unless they become a full on 3rd world style operation; that is who they are. It's about what would happen if they lose their figurehead / mascot.
The effect on the status of the GOP - having been turned into a Trump family business / slush fund - may be significant. There would perhaps be more money around, Trump not needing to steal it any more for dodgy purposes.
Who else is waiting in the wings? And what would they be able to achieve?
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
I'm glad you've cleared up the case so quickly Miss Marple.
It has by no means been demonstrated either that the would-be assassin was a Republican supporter, or that this wasn't 'a conspiracy' - given that it was a plot to shoot a hated and feared Presidential candidate.
The shooter has been identified. Unless you're suggesting that his GOP / Gun stuff is a cover story to hide the truth?
There are also hints he has recently donated to the Dems. As yet unproven. We shall see
Doesn't matter what else he might have done though does it. You can't ascribe blame to anyone just because they're connected by a one way action on his part.
In the end, voters will settle down and return to their candidate of choice. The people who move towards Trump out of sympathy will probably move back.
But what happened in PA will definitely impact the final vote, guaranteeing that every Trump voter will actually vote. Biden, or any other candidate the Democrats put up, will not have the same participation certainty.
That participation gap is worth at least 1% and as much as 2%. And because it happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be highest in Pennsylvania.
EDF are looking for investors to put another £5 billion into Hinkley C nuclear power station. Good luck with that!
Those EDF Board members who resigned before the morning before the decision to go ahead was taken are looking like the smartest guys in the room. (It now won't start production until at least 2029 BTW.)
How is this taking so long, over budget erc. I thought the point was this was what EDF knew how to do as they have loads in France?
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
No sane European country is ever going to engage with a UK government containing Ed Miliband.
I have Good News! Milliband is sane compared to so many European politicians. And compares favourably to the idiots just thrown out of office.
Give it 48 hours and see what actual Americans have to say about this. For starters this is America. Someone shooting at Starmer would be shocking news, in the States it's no more notable than being in a car crash (literally gun deaths outnumber car deaths).
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
It won’t be a sympathy vote that carries Trump. It’ll be a rage vote. They’ll be angrier than ever that the liberals tried to kill America.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
They will try and kill Trump AGAIN, quite possibly
Tories fear Labour-Lib Dem Parliament pact could leave them ‘irrelevant’
Concerns that two parties will informally agree to elect a Liberal Democrat deputy speaker, leaving Conservatives with little influence
Senior Conservatives fear being locked out of democracy if Labour and the Liberal Democrats work together to stitch up key positions that control the workings of Parliament.
The Tories believe that, as the biggest party on the opposition benches, they should have two deputy speakers to maintain the traditional 50/50 split between Labour and Conservatives in the Speaker’s Office, which has one speaker and three deputies.
But there are concerns within the Tory party that Labour and the Lib Dems will agree an informal pact to elect a Lib Dem deputy speaker, which would leave the Tories with little influence over parliamentary business.
The speaker and his deputies have control over choosing which amendments to legislation are debated and put to a vote.
The Tories fear that, if they only have one deputy speaker – and possibly the most junior of the three – it will affect their ability to provide a robust opposition to Labour and leave them effectively locked out of democracy for the next five years.
The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was a Labour MP before he was elected to the post in 2019 and resigned from the party.
Convention dictates that the most senior deputy comes from the opposition, the second most senior from the speaker’s former party and the most junior from the opposition.
But the rules define the opposition as anyone who is not on the government benches, meaning a Lib Dem – or even in theory an independent MP – could be chosen.
Whom do they envisage be promoted as deputy speaker from the LD bench? Should be a senior MP with experience and the only one is Tim Farron. Can’t see it.
An independent? Corbyn? Don’t be silly.
By the Telegraph’s own logic that presumably means the Lib Dems have been “locked out of democracy” for rather longer than the last 5 years.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
Dreadful news re the Trump assassination attempt. Sadly it has to improve his chances of being next POTUS. And it moves the discussion away from Biden’s infirmity so helps Biden’s chances and weakens those of Kamala. I’ve reversed most of my bets on Kamala and backed Biden at 7.6. So I’m now more GREEN Biden than Harris, RED on Trump but I might be able to get out near quits once it’s a two horse race, depending on how the market settles.
Why?
My guess is it makes no difference and by November this won't seem significant at all.
I've laid Trump a bit this morning. 1.5 is just too short.
One of the main reasons I quit gambling on politics was a general discomfort at betting on the probability of violence affecting political outcomes.
There's no way around it. If you're taking it seriously, you need to account for this stuff in your betting and shift your positions in response.
It is not optional.
Anyway, now as a non-punter, I can opine in good conscience;
Laying Trump for Potus @ 1.5 is an excellent bet.
Good luck to all you sick bastards.
May your riches eat away at your soul.
I have built up such a store of virtue by being poor and diligent over many decades that I think my soul can withstand a period of decadent wealth. I'm not quite sure what it involves but I'm looking forward to finding out: purely for research purposes, you understand 😎
However, to address the points you are making, I try not to bet on politics until closer to the election: weeks and days, not years and months. November will come soon enough... ☹️
Good morning everyone. I think we need a bit of OT today.
So my question: who is your most 'differently interesting' famous local? For cities I'll give you within one mile, for everyone else within 5 miles.
I'll have two:
- Percy Toplis the Monocled Mutineer, from South Normanton / Blackwell. - Harold Lloyd, the cricketer, from Nuncargate, Kirkby-in-Ashfield. It has a very good working class not-at-all-poncy butcher, which I appreciate.
My photo for the day is Larwood bowling to a full "Leg Theory" field.
Here in the Flatlands there be Wesley et al, but probably the most relevant to an internet forum - George Boole taught in a local school and developed his theories on binary arithmetic whilst walking on Doncaster's Town Fields.
Most of the memorials are in Lincoln though.
Maybe doesn't qualify as 'differently interesting' though.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel jstified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and thjink it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
FFS. This is a perfect opportunity for your to expound on your ultra-right-wing-male-zoomer-incel theory but you've gone for THE LIBS. Not very original.
At least we've been spared the video games chat (so far).
Rome wasn’t a republic in the sense of a full democracy. Power was explicitly given to the rich. Using system of “voting tribes” their votes overwhelmed the others. In addition, membership of the Senate was by wealth - landed wealth at that. In all its history, no one was elected to the senate.
The job of the Censors was to make sure that no poor people snuck in.
All public offices were open only to the rich. Yes you could become rich and try and join the race to Consul…
Roman was an oligarchy, moderated by some of the rich and powerful who gave a voice to the powerless. Who weren’t just The Plebs (the lower middle class) but the Head Count. Those right at the bottom, with nothing.
Caesar headed the popular party - and set the pattern that the Emperors claimed to listen to the plebs and head count and protect them from the still existing oligarchy of the Senate.
Yes, that was pretty much horse manure, but this is why the Republic was never restored. People didn’t want to exchange a single master for the violent squabbling of the oligarchs.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
No sane European country is ever going to engage with a UK government containing Ed Miliband.
I have Good News! Milliband is sane compared to so many European politicians. And compares favourably to the idiots just thrown out of office.
He is an econutter. Destroying domestic oil and gas production -which apart from anything else is the second greenest form of oil and gas supply - the first being pipeline from Norway, is the act of a complete madman. Unless he's at it - that would be the other explanation.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
No sane European country is ever going to engage with a UK government containing Ed Miliband.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
No sane European country is ever going to engage with a UK government containing Ed Miliband.
I have Good News! Milliband is sane compared to so many European politicians. And compares favourably to the idiots just thrown out of office.
I’m spotting a new derangement syndrome. The Telegraph has been exhibiting it for a while.
Derangement syndromes were generally found on the centre left since 2016 but now we have a Labour government I fear we may be facing the next phase of the pandemic.
There is a somewhat crackpot idea that Kennedy was killed when one of his SS guys got up in the car after the first shot - and accidentally fired a round into JFKs head. The "magic bullet" theory solved.
There was undoubtedly pandemonium in his security detail at the time.
Anyway....I shall be taking a leave of absence from pb.com for a while. Nothing to do with the election result. I have taken on a consultancy role - and part of my requirements are to comply with a strict clampdown on social media postings. (They are cool about the moths, but not my having a take on current affairs.)
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Understanding consequences and second system effects is hard for many people.
“But I want a good thing”, “but it will have bad consequences”, “no it won’t, it makes you a bad person to even think that”….
In the case of a martyred Trump, a young, articulate 2025er with crazy eyes would Mark Antony his/her way to the presidency. Someone worse than Trump. And with the whole MAGA machine raging behind them.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
I think Biden's strategy of portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, while justified, is now unworkable, being too inflammatory. Another reason why he should step aside.
There is no Dem tacit approval of political murder! That is OTT, even for you. Though on the other side, I could see tacit approval of political murder from Trump - e.g. hang Mike Pence.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
No sane European country is ever going to engage with a UK government containing Ed Miliband.
I have Good News! Milliband is sane compared to so many European politicians. And compares favourably to the idiots just thrown out of office.
I’m spotting a new derangement syndrome. The Telegraph has been exhibiting it for a while.
Derangement syndromes were generally found on the centre left since 2016 but now we have a Labour government I fear we may be facing the next phase of the pandemic.
Its been building for a while. The libertarian right won! Truss was PM! The best budget ever! And then it all fell apart because it turns out that the best budget ever was fucking mental, and Truss had about as much political leadership as you'd expect.
They can't have had their prize snatched away because it was politically and economically illiterate - that would make *them* politically and economically illiterate. So it must be the blob's fault. And now that the Tories have had their worst result ever? With Labour gifted a landslide on the voting system they favour to keep Labour out? The blob again.
When you are that right you can't be wrong. So it must be everyone else who is mad. Milliband? Elected with a large mandate to tackle the climate emergency? The same climate emergency which roasts people alive (literally) and drowns our fields so that we can't grow crops? Well as none of that is true - yes, especially because of the evidence proving it - then it must be Milliband.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
I think Biden's strategy of portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, while justified, is now unworkable, being too inflammatory. Another reason why he should step aside.
There is no Dem tacit approval of political murder! That is OTT, even for you. Though on the other side, I could see tacit approval of political murder from Trump - e.g. hang Mike Pence.
Are you joking?
if you paint someone as Satan, and the epitome of evil, and an American Hitler, then yes, you are cueing up violent people to take him out, and you are making them feel morally correct in doing so
The US election is 4 months away . If you hated Trump yesterday you’re not suddenly going to like him today and vote for him.
Gerald Ford had two assassination attempts made on him and he still lost the election.
The remarkable thing wasn't that Ford lost but that he almost won.
After Watergate, Saigon and recession. Plus with Carter sweeping all the southern states apart from Virginia.
The division in the US back then wasn’t entirely different to what we have now.
It’s hard to see now, as he’s labelled a weak and unsuccessful president, but at the time Carter was a very strong candidate. If they’d picked differently, the Democrats might easily have lost.
Anyway....I shall be taking a leave of absence from pb.com for a while. Nothing to do with the election result. I have taken on a consultancy role - and part of my requirements are to comply with a strict clampdown on social media postings. (They are cool about the moths, but not my having a take on current affairs.)
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
Toodle-pip!
Thats a shame. Are they able to identify you from your ID on here? I am doxxed but most people are not. How could your client know it was you?
There is a somewhat crackpot idea that Kennedy was killed when one of his SS guys got up in the car after the first shot - and accidentally fired a round into JFKs head. The "magic bullet" theory solved.
There was undoubtedly pandemonium in his security detail at the time.
The magic bullet was solved when someone built a 3D model of the car and the people in it, from the film. The bullet holes in various people lined up perfectly. And led back to a couple of windows in the book repository….
Anyway....I shall be taking a leave of absence from pb.com for a while. Nothing to do with the election result. I have taken on a consultancy role - and part of my requirements are to comply with a strict clampdown on social media postings. (They are cool about the moths, but not my having a take on current affairs.)
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
Toodle-pip!
Enjoy the restaurants.
You could choose a pseudonym as a Leonese monarch, which fits with Farewell and Adieu, being Spanish.
There are at least 40 to choose from, including The Fat, The Wicked, The Cruel, The Gouty, The Learned, The Brave, The Summoned, The Impotent, The Mad ...
Anyway....I shall be taking a leave of absence from pb.com for a while. Nothing to do with the election result. I have taken on a consultancy role - and part of my requirements are to comply with a strict clampdown on social media postings. (They are cool about the moths, but not my having a take on current affairs.)
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
Toodle-pip!
Hey mate, sad to see you go!
Like @RochdalePioneers says, can't you post even more anonymously? There aren't many righties remaining on here, we need voices like yours
If not, fare thee well. Hope to see you again, some day
Dreadful news re the Trump assassination attempt. Sadly it has to improve his chances of being next POTUS. And it moves the discussion away from Biden’s infirmity so helps Biden’s chances and weakens those of Kamala. I’ve reversed most of my bets on Kamala and backed Biden at 7.6. So I’m now more GREEN Biden than Harris, RED on Trump but I might be able to get out near quits once it’s a two horse race, depending on how the market settles.
Why?
My guess is it makes no difference and by November this won't seem significant at all.
I've laid Trump a bit this morning. 1.5 is just too short.
One of the main reasons I quit gambling on politics was a general discomfort at betting on the probability of violence affecting political outcomes.
There's no way around it. If you're taking it seriously, you need to account for this stuff in your betting and shift your positions in response.
It is not optional.
Anyway, now as a non-punter, I can opine in good conscience;
There is a somewhat crackpot idea that Kennedy was killed when one of his SS guys got up in the car after the first shot - and accidentally fired a round into JFKs head. The "magic bullet" theory solved.
There was undoubtedly pandemonium in his security detail at the time.
It's not that crackpot. It explains a lot of weird features of the event and what followed.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
I think Biden's strategy of portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, while justified, is now unworkable, being too inflammatory. Another reason why he should step aside.
There is no Dem tacit approval of political murder! That is OTT, even for you. Though on the other side, I could see tacit approval of political murder from Trump - e.g. hang Mike Pence.
Are you joking?
if you paint someone as Satan, and the epitome of evil, and an American Hitler, then yes, you are cueing up violent people to take him out, and you are making them feel morally correct in doing so
You do know that *both sides* are doing this. Surely. Its a little odd to complain that the Democrats are agitating for political violence when the Republicans stormed the Capitol wanting to lynch the Vice-President as a traitor.
Both sides need to calm the fuck down. But can't do because its a battle for the soul of America. One side wants to make everyone trans and flood the country with illegals, the other side wants to ban women travelling interstate having banned birth control and abortion.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
I think Biden's strategy of portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, while justified, is now unworkable, being too inflammatory. Another reason why he should step aside.
There is no Dem tacit approval of political murder! That is OTT, even for you. Though on the other side, I could see tacit approval of political murder from Trump - e.g. hang Mike Pence.
I guess we can hope that Trump (and everyone else) eases up on saying things along those lines. He must be really quite shaky after such a close call. Quite remarkable that he was so in control in the moments after, but no doubt as he has time to think on it it'll have a strong influence.
Just had an in-law on the phone - a Cambridge educated lawyer, no less - sincerely lamenting that the shooter missed Trump. What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
Yes. This is why I think the Dems are at least implicated in this, even if they didn't conspire to hire a shooter. They have raised the rhetoric against Trump to such a high level "he is an American Hitler, he will destroy democracy" they have certainly enabled any nutter, to feel justified in shooting Trump. As with your friend: lots now want him dead and think it is morally correct that he is slain
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
I think Biden's strategy of portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, while justified, is now unworkable, being too inflammatory. Another reason why he should step aside.
There is no Dem tacit approval of political murder! That is OTT, even for you. Though on the other side, I could see tacit approval of political murder from Trump - e.g. hang Mike Pence.
Are you joking?
if you paint someone as Satan, and the epitome of evil, and an American Hitler, then yes, you are cueing up violent people to take him out, and you are making them feel morally correct in doing so
You do know that *both sides* are doing this. Surely. Its a little odd to complain that the Democrats are agitating for political violence when the Republicans stormed the Capitol wanting to lynch the Vice-President as a traitor.
Both sides need to calm the fuck down. But can't do because its a battle for the soul of America. One side wants to make everyone trans and flood the country with illegals, the other side wants to ban women travelling interstate having banned birth control and abortion.
Fair
But the Dems have done a brilliant job of making this Alien V Predator, rather than good v bad
I largely, if reluctantly, agree with this. In particular the UK needs to coordinate with the rest of Europe to ensure that if the worst happens in January next year Europe can support Ukraine sufficiently for them to drive the Russians from their soil. That requires significant investment in arms manufacture and it requires it now. We cannot wait until November and hope.
Labour hasn't even truly committed to 2.5% of GDP for defence by 2030, making it contingent on a review and economic circumstances.
Compared to the likes of Germany and Poland we are doing nothing.
Maybe the government is presenting a calm exterior, but I'd be a hell of a lot more reassured by some immediate action, as it is already overdue.
Dreadful news re the Trump assassination attempt. Sadly it has to improve his chances of being next POTUS. And it moves the discussion away from Biden’s infirmity so helps Biden’s chances and weakens those of Kamala. I’ve reversed most of my bets on Kamala and backed Biden at 7.6. So I’m now more GREEN Biden than Harris, RED on Trump but I might be able to get out near quits once it’s a two horse race, depending on how the market settles.
Why?
My guess is it makes no difference and by November this won't seem significant at all.
I've laid Trump a bit this morning. 1.5 is just too short.
Yes, might be a time to top up on Kamala too. Within a week Bidens capacity will be the big talking point again.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
If it wasn't already clear before yesterday, Trump is going to win the election. With all the terrible consequences of that happening.
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
Its not more talking in 'planning and cooperation' that is required but a willingness to spend at least 1% more of GDP on defence and at least 1% more of GDP on industrial investment.
Money to come from:
Higher taxes on the rich and property Recued spending on the poor and oldies Increased productivity and retirement age for workers
Good morning everyone. I think we need a bit of OT today.
So my question: who is your most 'differently interesting' famous local? For cities I'll give you within one mile, for everyone else within 5 miles.
I'll have two:
- Percy Toplis the Monocled Mutineer, from South Normanton / Blackwell. - Harold Lloyd, the cricketer, from Nuncargate, Kirkby-in-Ashfield. It has a very good working class not-at-all-poncy butcher, which I appreciate.
My photo for the day is Larwood bowling to a full "Leg Theory" field.
Here in the Flatlands there be Wesley et al, but probably the most relevant to an internet forum - George Boole taught in a local school and developed his theories on binary arithmetic whilst walking on Doncaster's Town Fields.
Most of the memorials are in Lincoln though.
Maybe doesn't qualify as 'differently interesting' though.
Good morning everyone. I think we need a bit of OT today.
So my question: who is your most 'differently interesting' famous local? For cities I'll give you within one mile, for everyone else within 5 miles.
I'll have two:
- Percy Toplis the Monocled Mutineer, from South Normanton / Blackwell. - Harold Lloyd, the cricketer, from Nuncargate, Kirkby-in-Ashfield. It has a very good working class not-at-all-poncy butcher, which I appreciate.
My photo for the day is Larwood bowling to a full "Leg Theory" field.
Here in the Flatlands there be Wesley et al, but probably the most relevant to an internet forum - George Boole taught in a local school and developed his theories on binary arithmetic whilst walking on Doncaster's Town Fields.
Most of the memorials are in Lincoln though.
Maybe doesn't qualify as 'differently interesting' though.
A bit late but Harold LARWOOD was born in Kirkby-in-Ashfield, not Harold Lloyd.
Anyway....I shall be taking a leave of absence from pb.com for a while. Nothing to do with the election result. I have taken on a consultancy role - and part of my requirements are to comply with a strict clampdown on social media postings. (They are cool about the moths, but not my having a take on current affairs.)
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
Toodle-pip!
Thats a shame. Are they able to identify you from your ID on here? I am doxxed but most people are not. How could your client know it was you?
I think most of us post enough info to be identified. I think @MarqueeMark certainly does. Whether anyone cares enough to do the research is another matter.
Good luck @MarqueeMark , you will be missed, especially your humour.
Good morning everyone. I think we need a bit of OT today.
So my question: who is your most 'differently interesting' famous local? For cities I'll give you within one mile, for everyone else within 5 miles.
I'll have two:
- Percy Toplis the Monocled Mutineer, from South Normanton / Blackwell. - Harold Lloyd, the cricketer, from Nuncargate, Kirkby-in-Ashfield. It has a very good working class not-at-all-poncy butcher, which I appreciate.
My photo for the day is Larwood bowling to a full "Leg Theory" field.
Three who attended Marlborough Grammar School
Henry Moule - a priest who invented a dry earth toilet. I like the idea of moule being a verb if he'd been as successful as Crapper
Trump made jokes about the attack on Nanci Pelosis husband and orchestrated a mob to storm Congress where some wanted to hang Mike Pence.
The GOP trying to blame the left should stfu.
I have to say that the word "petard" has been featuring in my thoughts more than average today. Along with the thought that the second amendment puts gun violence at the heart of US democracy.
I largely, if reluctantly, agree with this. In particular the UK needs to coordinate with the rest of Europe to ensure that if the worst happens in January next year Europe can support Ukraine sufficiently for them to drive the Russians from their soil. That requires significant investment in arms manufacture and it requires it now. We cannot wait until November and hope.
Labour hasn't even truly committed to 2.5% of GDP for defence by 2030, making it contingent on a review and economic circumstances.
Compared to the likes of Germany and Poland we are doing nothing.
Maybe the government is presenting a calm exterior, but I'd be a hell of a lot more reassured by some immediate action, as it is already overdue.
King's Speech this week. With 30+ bills, reportedly.
By Friday we may be reeling in the whirlwind of activity.
Parliament will not rise until the end of July, so there's a couple of weeks for "rapid change" markers to be laid down. I'd expect some rapid change with a bit of an impact now, then a slow burn for the iceberg to be revealed.
On defence, there seems to be a big overhaul * of procurement coming, and perhaps budget increases beyond the "essential now" would be calibrated with that working through. 2.1-2.2% for years 1 and 2 (currently 2.07%), then a build to 2.5% or more by end of term?
* @Dura_Ace will have a view on how possible that will be .
Anyway....I shall be taking a leave of absence from pb.com for a while. Nothing to do with the election result. I have taken on a consultancy role - and part of my requirements are to comply with a strict clampdown on social media postings. (They are cool about the moths, but not my having a take on current affairs.)
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
There is a somewhat crackpot idea that Kennedy was killed when one of his SS guys got up in the car after the first shot - and accidentally fired a round into JFKs head. The "magic bullet" theory solved.
There was undoubtedly pandemonium in his security detail at the time.
I think such incidents always come as an almighty shock to everyone, no matter how much the security team trains for every scenario. Every day usually passes off without serious incident.
Driving him in an open car around a city was (with the benefit of hindsight) an obvious sign that JFK’s security wasn’t as good as it should have been! His brother’s murder was another one with more questions than answers.
Yesterday’s incident says that the security team messed up by allowing a low building within target range of the stage to be unguarded. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Trump’s rallies going forward; he’ll obviously want them to continue just as before, and the SS will want to keep him indoors where they can have every inch of the building covered and guarantee everyone gets searched for weapons.
Trump's "fight, fight, fight" and raised fist reaction to his shooting was objectively extraordinary. But I am not sure it is going to do him any favours. If you are non-MAGA - ie, you are in the majority among Americans - what you saw encouraged there was a violent response to violence. Combine that with the Year 2025 stuff and the course of a second Trump Presidency is very clearly set out. It will lead to more division and more danger. Independents may not find that particularly attractive.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
Perhaps you agree with CNN here, that 5 seconds after nearly dying by a gunshot Trump should have "tamped down the rhetoric"
"CNN's Jamie Gangel attacks Trump for saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" after someone tried to murder him.
Literally, she complains about what he did 5 seconds after he was shot
"That's not the message that we want to being sending right now. We want to tamp it down""
lol. Lefties hate Trump so much they are mental. They are more dangerous than Trump. That is the takeaway here
Nope, I am merely saying that Trump's response revealed his way of seeing the world. It was the natural response of someone who believes that political violence is OK. A lot of Americans, many of them independent voters, do not share that view and may not want to live in an America where it is the view of the government.
Comments
After Watergate, Saigon and recession. Plus with Carter sweeping all the southern states apart from Virginia.
Yes I know the shooter was GOP and that Trump isn’t America. But inside the bubble? It’s all a conspiracy isn’t it.
Question now is what does the half of America that fears Trump do? Their candidate was already losing and likely now will get to go on and lose. And they can’t shift him. Can they?
Does sane America have any options left?
1. It depicts Trump in the role of hero. A voter who is hesitating whether to vote for Trump or Biden and who feels that the legal system has wrongly been trying to stop Trump's candidacy will, like all of us, be outraged by this assassination attempt and may now tip in favour of Trump to reward his bravery in standing and as a vote for democracy.
2. It increases the likelihood of Biden staying in the race and it's hard to see Biden winning with his infirmity. But ironically it may also strengthen Biden's candidacy. As the incumbent and Commander in Chief at a time of national peril his waning authority may get a boost.
On the specific issue, is there any precedent for the third party being a bit more than half the size of the second? Council proportionality rules would probably point to C1:LD1 for the opposition speakers.
Finally, wasn't there a doctrine proposed in the Brexit Wars that the executive controlled the agenda and that anything else was an abomination?
But mostly- yes, the Conservatives are irrelevant for the next four years at least. That's what happens when you have had a landslide defeat.
However, a Trump stumble is predicated entirely on Biden departing the stage. His only possible route to victory is to make voters more scared of Trump than they are of him. That means highly divisive language that can only inflame. This will not work so will deliver Trump victory. A new Democratic candidate offers the opportunity of a total reset in rhetoric and focus. Will it happen? Probably not, unfortunately.
The other thing about what happened yesterday is that it shines a light once again on Europe's total failure to plan for a second Trump term. The UK, Germany and France have been tragically and shamefully complacent. The consequences for our continent could well be catastrophic. Our only hope is that Trump loses. We are entirely dependent on events completely out of our control. What a terrible place to be.
He had four years to start putting people in concentrations camps, invading the Sudetenland, burning down democratic chambers and waging war on foreign states.
He didnt do any of that, he just had on obnoxious twitter account and acted like a petulant child.
But it prompts me to say, so you think the 1933 Enabling Act and everything that flowed from it denote a great leader? Slinging political opponents into Dachau without trial? That murdering political opponents, including let’s not forget erstwhile allies such as Rohm, is great? Ending democracy and free speech is simply strong leadership? You would overlook the Aktion T4 programme and embryonic stirrings of Aktion Rheinhardt and Auschwitz? The relentless, all pervasive anti-semitism? The Nazification and indoctrination of an entire society?
At the very least, even if he had died after the Sudetenland, his legacy would be problematic. It’s not just about territorial gains.
Hitler thanked divine providence for saving him from multiple assassination attempts, claiming fate was protecting him is he could complete his historic mission. Expect similar rhetoric from Trump and his deranged supporters. And a similar reining in of freedom and forced conformity if he’s re-elected.
Seems to me to be the same as the loonies who shoot up a school or a cinema - suicide by cop, but going out with a bang
The photo is an image of iconic defiance, and it will be seen as such by tens of millions of Americans (and others around the world). And the VIDEO of him. bleeding, and saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" is even more powerful
This tweet has been seen by 13 million people. so far
https://x.com/L0m3z/status/1812254026140193153
It has by no means been demonstrated either that the would-be assassin was a Republican supporter, or that this wasn't 'a conspiracy' - given that it was a plot to shoot a hated and feared Presidential candidate.
That line from The Third Man feels relevant;
You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.
If we have a very wet summer, then some how this would have been predicted by climate change, a very dry one, a very hot one, a very cold one. It just allows the normal fluctuation of the weather, even in what seem to be extremes to be put down to climate change.
And for every one of these scenarios there's someone out there saying the reason it is XYZ is because of ABC. But ABC that predicted XYZ is only ever after the fact.
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Bob says it all, as usual.
I haven't got a handle either on how much MP experience is appropriate before becoming a Deputy Speaker, or (which may be relevant) how many "new" LD MPs are old ones returning.
Lindsay Hoyle was first elected in 1997, and a Deputy Speaker from 2010. So perhaps ~10 years is a good yardstick.
In returning former LD MPs, there are people like Tessa Munt (2010-2015), Andrew George (1997-2015) - but I don't know LDs well enough then or now to pick them all out. There are also existing MPs with experience from 2017, plus the 2015 "taxi-cab plus a trandem" batch.
Ed Davey has to think about at least: MPs needing to fortify their constituencies, front bench spokespeople, and resource to mentoring of new MPs to be effective Lib Dem Parliamentarians. LD Lords will have things to do on the last of those as mentors, I expect.
Reading the "new LD MP" summaries, there are people with very significant life, political and organisational experience.
It's a Chinese puzzle. I wish them luck.
On the T, this could just be the next bit of pathetic frothing as the Conservatives whine about being subject the same rules they happily imposed on everyone else.
Chris Patton
Gyles Brandreth (same road)
Gary Lineker
Brian May
Patricia Hodge
Stanley Tucci (opposite my daughter)
Holly Willoughby
Duffy
Niamh Cusack
Ronan Keating
Peter Snow
Zac Goldsmith
No longer alive:
Ninette de Valois
Jan Pienkowski
Clive Dunn
Jimmy Edwards
Rik Mayall
John Pertwee
Terry Thomas
Marc Bolan
Carl Davis
Gustav Holst (music teacher at St Pauls)
Freddie Mercury
Henry Fielding
Not bad for a village with 10,000 residents.
But which ones are differently interesting?
"CNN's Jamie Gangel attacks Trump for saying "Fight! Fight! Fight!" after someone tried to murder him.
Literally, she complains about what he did 5 seconds after he was shot
"That's not the message that we want to being sending right now. We want to tamp it down""
lol. Lefties hate Trump so much they are mental. They are more dangerous than Trump. That is the takeaway here
https://x.com/RealSaavedra/status/1812317905935020049
Biden simply cannot beat Trump. So if they leave him on the ticket Trump wins. But removing him from the ticket needs to happen quickly - only a month to go until the convention and we can't have it brokered if a new nominee is to stand any chance.
You are right - the west needs to plan for what happens to the world when Trump removes the US from the world stage. The defence implications are dire. So are the economic ones.
Never mind the bleating about Brexit I read this morning, Starmer needs to tell the European meeting that we want back in. Not to the EU as such, into "Europe" from a planning and cooperation perspective. We hang together or we will surely hang separately as Putin picks us off cheered on by Trump.
This is how the Secret Service reacted in 1981 when Ronald Reagan was shot.
https://x.com/keithboykin/status/1812266345695998109
Or the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand: First assassin fails to act, second assassin fails to act, third assassin's bomb bounces off and hits the next car, driver takes a wrong turn, stalls trying to reverse and gets his guy shot by the fourth assassin.
Leon Posts: 50,745
June 28
Actually, joking aside, I would not be surprised if America’s political impasse was resolved with violence. America is a very violent society. Lots of politicians have been shot over the decades
It does arguably “solve” an insoluble problem.
And you could argue either makes a good target for those so minded
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4861702#Comment_4861702
What does she think would have happened? MAGA types would have just gone "oh, ok, you've convinced us, you were right after all? "
People are frustratingly unable to think through the consequences of these things.
As for "Fight Fight Fight". Trump is a politician instinctively seizing the opportunity given to him by his brush with death. Him saying that won't incite violence. Him nearly being assassinated IS violence and we're going to see a lot more of it now whether he says "Fight Fight Fight" or not.
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-07-10-project-2025-republican-presidencies-tradition/
Those EDF Board members who resigned before the morning before the decision to go ahead was taken are looking like the smartest guys in the room. (It now won't start production until at least 2029 BTW.)
Them getting him up, you here one who is clearly in charge saying ahooter down, shooter down...then they are surrounding him as a human shield. I am guessing this is the procedure.
It's hard to make them loopier, or more deranged, or more corrupt, or more criminal, or more hypocritical, or more generally poisonous for the USA, unless they become a full on 3rd world style operation; that is who they are. It's about what would happen if they lose their figurehead / mascot.
The effect on the status of the GOP - having been turned into a Trump family business / slush fund - may be significant. There would perhaps be more money around, Trump not needing to steal it any more for dodgy purposes.
Who else is waiting in the wings? And what would they be able to achieve?
@FrankLuntz
In the end, voters will settle down and return to their candidate of choice. The people who move towards Trump out of sympathy will probably move back.
But what happened in PA will definitely impact the final vote, guaranteeing that every Trump voter will actually vote. Biden, or any other candidate the Democrats put up, will not have the same participation certainty.
That participation gap is worth at least 1% and as much as 2%. And because it happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be highest in Pennsylvania.
I now believe the Dems are, marginally, a greater threat than Trump, with their demented leader and this tacit approval of political murder
However, to address the points you are making, I try not to bet on politics until closer to the election: weeks and days, not years and months. November will come soon enough... ☹️
Most of the memorials are in Lincoln though.
Maybe doesn't qualify as 'differently interesting' though.
At least we've been spared the video games chat (so far).
Rome wasn’t a republic in the sense of a full democracy. Power was explicitly given to the rich. Using system of “voting tribes” their votes overwhelmed the others. In addition, membership of the Senate was by wealth - landed wealth at that. In all its history, no one was elected to the senate.
The job of the Censors was to make sure that no poor people snuck in.
All public offices were open only to the rich. Yes you could become rich and try and join the race to Consul…
Roman was an oligarchy, moderated by some of the rich and powerful who gave a voice to the powerless. Who weren’t just The Plebs (the lower middle class) but the Head Count. Those right at the bottom, with nothing.
Caesar headed the popular party - and set the pattern that the Emperors claimed to listen to the plebs and head count and protect them from the still existing oligarchy of the Senate.
Yes, that was pretty much horse manure, but this is why the Republic was never restored. People didn’t want to exchange a single master for the violent squabbling of the oligarchs.
Derangement syndromes were generally found on the centre left since 2016 but now we have a Labour government I fear we may be facing the next phase of the pandemic.
There was undoubtedly pandemonium in his security detail at the time.
"Yes, I’m absolutely serious. I can see [assassination] happening to either candidate for multiple reasons
Clearly I pray I’m wrong but America has an awful lot of guns, a history of assassinations, and plenty of angry or bad or desperate people"
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4861731/#Comment_4861731
So farewell and adieu. I shall continue to lurk, but keep my thoughts to myself until such time as I can again spout off.
Toodle-pip!
“But I want a good thing”, “but it will have bad consequences”, “no it won’t, it makes you a bad person to even think that”….
In the case of a martyred Trump, a young, articulate 2025er with crazy eyes would Mark Antony his/her way to the presidency. Someone worse than Trump. And with the whole MAGA machine raging behind them.
There is no Dem tacit approval of political murder! That is OTT, even for you. Though on the other side, I could see tacit approval of political murder from Trump - e.g. hang Mike Pence.
They can't have had their prize snatched away because it was politically and economically illiterate - that would make *them* politically and economically illiterate. So it must be the blob's fault. And now that the Tories have had their worst result ever? With Labour gifted a landslide on the voting system they favour to keep Labour out? The blob again.
When you are that right you can't be wrong. So it must be everyone else who is mad. Milliband? Elected with a large mandate to tackle the climate emergency? The same climate emergency which roasts people alive (literally) and drowns our fields so that we can't grow crops? Well as none of that is true - yes, especially because of the evidence proving it - then it must be Milliband.
He's a bad un.
if you paint someone as Satan, and the epitome of evil, and an American Hitler, then yes, you are cueing up violent people to take him out, and you are making them feel morally correct in doing so
It’s hard to see now, as he’s labelled a weak and unsuccessful president, but at the time Carter was a very strong candidate. If they’d picked differently, the Democrats might easily have lost.
You could choose a pseudonym as a Leonese monarch, which fits with Farewell and Adieu, being Spanish.
There are at least 40 to choose from, including The Fat, The Wicked, The Cruel, The Gouty, The Learned, The Brave, The Summoned, The Impotent, The Mad ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Leonese_monarchs
Like @RochdalePioneers says, can't you post even more anonymously? There aren't many righties remaining on here, we need voices like yours
If not, fare thee well. Hope to see you again, some day
The GOP trying to blame the left should stfu.
Both sides need to calm the fuck down. But can't do because its a battle for the soul of America. One side wants to make everyone trans and flood the country with illegals, the other side wants to ban women travelling interstate having banned birth control and abortion.
Fair
But the Dems have done a brilliant job of making this Alien V Predator, rather than good v bad
Compared to the likes of Germany and Poland we are doing nothing.
Maybe the government is presenting a calm exterior, but I'd be a hell of a lot more reassured by some immediate action, as it is already overdue.
Are you betting in Player of the tournament? Volumes on bf are low unfortunately.
I have a bit on Rodri at 5.7 - I think he should be favourite over Yamal.
But does it change things in England win? Perhaps.
Bellingham is strongest in bf market at 9.2. He doesn't justified that IMO; best England player over all the games is Saka.
I backed him at 29 after the last game and he is now 18.5. Still value I think.
Biden sent the orders [to assassinate Trump]
https://x.com/MikeCollinsGA/status/1812257581655531669
Money to come from:
Higher taxes on the rich and property
Recued spending on the poor and oldies
Increased productivity and retirement age for workers
Good luck @MarqueeMark , you will be missed, especially your humour.
Henry Moule - a priest who invented a dry earth toilet. I like the idea of moule being a verb if he'd been as successful as Crapper
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Moule
Phil Harding - Time Team presenter, archaeologist and actual flint knapper
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Harding_(archaeologist)
Frederick Maddison - footballer who played for England in the very first international football match
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Maddison_(footballer)
Joe Biden on 7.8.2024: "We’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye."
Whatever your take on all this, that is an extremely unfortunate comment by Biden, in the circumstances
By Friday we may be reeling in the whirlwind of activity.
Parliament will not rise until the end of July, so there's a couple of weeks for "rapid change" markers to be laid down. I'd expect some rapid change with a bit of an impact now, then a slow burn for the iceberg to be revealed.
On defence, there seems to be a big overhaul * of procurement coming, and perhaps budget increases beyond the "essential now" would be calibrated with that working through. 2.1-2.2% for years 1 and 2 (currently 2.07%), then a build to 2.5% or more by end of term?
* @Dura_Ace will have a view on how possible that will be
https://x.com/brianklaas/status/1812328254499647796?s=46
Driving him in an open car around a city was (with the benefit of hindsight) an obvious sign that JFK’s security wasn’t as good as it should have been! His brother’s murder was another one with more questions than answers.
Yesterday’s incident says that the security team messed up by allowing a low building within target range of the stage to be unguarded. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Trump’s rallies going forward; he’ll obviously want them to continue just as before, and the SS will want to keep him indoors where they can have every inch of the building covered and guarantee everyone gets searched for weapons.
"We're done with this campaign, it's time to put Biden in a bullseye"
And then a week later a gunman very nearly kills Biden at a rally - very nearly gets him with a bullseye?
Would the lefties on here be so forgiving, so "oh it's just a figure of speech"???