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Can I Tell You a Secret? – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206

    Whats the betting the Commission rolls over and France keeps spending ?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/11/eu-warns-france-to-cut-deficit-by-12bn-or-face-punishment/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649
    edited July 12
    Penddu2 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Not sure if there is a betting opportunity here... But latest developments in Vaughan Gething saga means he must be toast by now......

    Couldn't happen to a more self serving arrogant condescending c*** - with the possible exception of Nigel Farage..

    Racist Welsh, like the Scots getting rid of their first non white First Minister at the first opportunity?
    I absolutely reject your accusation. I have no problem with his skin colour or place of birth. I have a huge problem with his corruption and arrogance.
    You forgot his incompetence.

    Mind you, that's par for the course with Welsh politicians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 680
    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Not sure if there is a betting opportunity here... But latest developments in Vaughan Gething saga means he must be toast by now......

    Couldn't happen to a more self serving arrogant condescending c*** - with the possible exception of Nigel Farage..

    Racist Welsh, like the Scots getting rid of their first non white First Minister at the first opportunity?
    I absolutely reject your accusation. I have no problem with his skin colour or place of birth. I have a huge problem with his corruption and arrogance.
    You forgot his incompetence.

    Mind you, that's par for the course with Welsh politicians.
    And his misogyny... (ditto)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649
    Andy_JS said:

    Jimmy is on 703 wickets with 4 left. Maybe 707 would be a nice number to end with.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/c98qxp15y55o

    Still short of Shane Warne.

    They should have given him three more Tests so he could go past Warne. Really annoy the Aussies.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003

    .

    maaarsh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "'I don't want to jinx it' - PM on Euros bank holiday"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd197zdxv52o

    Bizarre kite to fly - impossible to do the following day and weirdly after the Lord Mayors any later
    Next day is utterly impossible, only day to make sense would be to pick a date a month or so later to have as a bank holiday and have a victory parade/celebrations then.
    more likely to be a wake having seen Spanish play.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206
    edited July 12
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649
    edited July 12
    malcolmg said:

    .

    maaarsh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "'I don't want to jinx it' - PM on Euros bank holiday"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd197zdxv52o

    Bizarre kite to fly - impossible to do the following day and weirdly after the Lord Mayors any later
    Next day is utterly impossible, only day to make sense would be to pick a date a month or so later to have as a bank holiday and have a victory parade/celebrations then.
    more likely to be a wake having seen Spanish play.
    Are you Kydding?
  • Leon said:

    It's seldom I have felt frightened for the West. For all of the lives of almost everyone on here, bar @JackW and @Big_G_NorthWales who can remember WW2, the West has been secure and fairly dominant. The USSR threatened but never really menacds; we were so much richer and more glamorous and successful. They could never compete with the Beatles then the internet

    But now? I am anxious, for the first time in my life. Our system may be in terminal decay, and we face rivals - esp China - with equal power and maybe more persuasive systems, even if we find them abhorrent

    If we want westerm democracy to endure, we need a rough tough able America. That needs a sane president (and much else, but let's start there)

    Perilous times. Even in sibilant Provence. Bon nuit

    US spending on nstional debt interest has overtaken US spending on Military. That is *THE* end of empire Klaxon.

    As to Biden. Who benefits from him being in post as opposed to another (Democrat), whos financial interests, whos cover for things they don't want aired, whos ability to carry out their own policies by manipulating Biden?

    Answer that question and the desperate efforts to cover his dementia up will be explained.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,708

    Leon said:

    It's seldom I have felt frightened for the West. For all of the lives of almost everyone on here, bar @JackW and @Big_G_NorthWales who can remember WW2, the West has been secure and fairly dominant. The USSR threatened but never really menacds; we were so much richer and more glamorous and successful. They could never compete with the Beatles then the internet

    But now? I am anxious, for the first time in my life. Our system may be in terminal decay, and we face rivals - esp China - with equal power and maybe more persuasive systems, even if we find them abhorrent

    If we want westerm democracy to endure, we need a rough tough able America. That needs a sane president (and much else, but let's start there)

    Perilous times. Even in sibilant Provence. Bon nuit

    US spending on nstional debt interest has overtaken US spending on Military. That is *THE* end of empire Klaxon.

    As to Biden. Who benefits from him being in post as opposed to another (Democrat), whos financial interests, whos cover for things they don't want aired, whos ability to carry out their own policies by manipulating Biden?

    Answer that question and the desperate efforts to cover his dementia up will be explained.
    One version is that Obama has been carrying out quasi-Presidential duties, Cameron style. If that's true, it does make me wonder if a Michelle Obama run could happen if Biden goes.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I'm hoping that he is playing a long game, knowing he can't upset the left of the party *too* much too quickly so is giving Millipede Minor enough rope to hang himself.

    If not we are looking at a thoroughly hung parliament in 2029 with Farage having three figures in number of seats and an unstable Lab-Con Coalition.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I had missed until this morning that David Lammy is now Foreign Secretary, replacing David Cameron. Good luck to the diplomats with that one!
  • Very quiet on here this morning. Did half our regular posters get raided overnight after regaling us with their anecdotes about the best way to transport dismembered corpses?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649

    Very quiet on here this morning. Did half our regular posters get raided overnight after regaling us with their anecdotes about the best way to transport dismembered corpses?

    I assumed all versions of SeanT were sleeping it off after all that typing in different IDs while drunk.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I had missed until this morning that David Lammy is now Foreign Secretary, replacing David Cameron. Good luck to the diplomats with that one!
    Yes I can see him and President Trump really hitting it off.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited July 12
    Nigelb said:



    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.

    It doesn't look like he's going to stand down and they aren't going to 25th him so, absent a donor strike, he's the candidate. I'm not even sure a donor strike would shift him at this point.

    The election is Lennie Small vs Eric Cartman. LOL.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    edited July 12

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I had missed until this morning that David Lammy is now Foreign Secretary, replacing David Cameron. Good luck to the diplomats with that one!
    Yes I can see him and President Trump really hitting it off.
    If Trump is elected, Starmer should do what Sunak did with Cameron, and either appoint Blair as FS or as the Ambassador to the US. Even David Miliband as Ambassador would work, two men with a load of experience in the States and who would know the right things to say and do.

    Lammy is such a lightweight in that role, and with a history of gaffes. Trump’s team would totally railroad him over the important stuff like aid to Ukraine.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:


    Lammy is such a lightweight in that role, and with a history of gaffes. Trump’s team would totally railroad him over the important stuff like aid to Ukraine.

    Strong Richard Splett energy from DL. He did work and practice law in the US for years so he knows America as well as anybody in the cabinet. I don't think Trump will give the slightest fuck who the British Foreign Sec is or what they say. He's gonna do what he's gonna do.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I had missed until this morning that David Lammy is now Foreign Secretary, replacing David Cameron. Good luck to the diplomats with that one!
    Yes I can see him and President Trump really hitting it off.
    If Trump is elected, Starmer should do what Sunak did with Cameron, and either appoint Blair as FS or as the Ambassador to the US. Even David Miliband as Ambassador would work, two men with a load of experience in the States and who would know the right things to say and do.

    Lammy is such a lightweight in that role, and with a history of gaffes. Trump’s team would totally railroad him over the important stuff like aid to Ukraine.
    Starmer certainly has options, though slick Blair as ambassador might be a culture clash In any event the person most likely to get through to Trump is Farage, all sorts of fun can come from that connection.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,480
    I see that overnight Biden referred to Harris as Vice-President Trump.

    As I said last night, individually each of these gaffes could be explained. Individually, had it been Boris or George W Bush etc having these verbal slips their critics would be loving it and sharing it on social media and nobody would be suggesting dementia.

    But cumulatively its just way, way too much now.

    Biden is just an old man who is deteriorating. But he is an old man who is deteriorating. The President of the United States of America has to be someone else.

    Its time for a resignation or the 25th Amendment.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206

    I see that overnight Biden referred to Harris as Vice-President Trump.

    As I said last night, individually each of these gaffes could be explained. Individually, had it been Boris or George W Bush etc having these verbal slips their critics would be loving it and sharing it on social media and nobody would be suggesting dementia.

    But cumulatively its just way, way too much now.

    Biden is just an old man who is deteriorating. But he is an old man who is deteriorating. The President of the United States of America has to be someone else.

    Its time for a resignation or the 25th Amendment.

    Couldnt he just step back and let Vice President Trump replace him ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,649
    Interesting article in the Economist (so treat with care) on the international crisis in teacher retention.

    https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/07/07/the-rich-worlds-teachers-are-increasingly-morose
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I had missed until this morning that David Lammy is now Foreign Secretary, replacing David Cameron. Good luck to the diplomats with that one!
    Yes I can see him and President Trump really hitting it off.
    If Trump is elected, Starmer should do what Sunak did with Cameron, and either appoint Blair as FS or as the Ambassador to the US. Even David Miliband as Ambassador would work, two men with a load of experience in the States and who would know the right things to say and do.

    Lammy is such a lightweight in that role, and with a history of gaffes. Trump’s team would totally railroad him over the important stuff like aid to Ukraine.
    Starmer certainly has options, though slick Blair as ambassador might be a culture clash In any event the person most likely to get through to Trump is Farage, all sorts of fun can come from that connection.
    LOL, as if Starmer would appoint Farage to anything.

    One interesting thing would be if Trump visited the UK as president or before the election, he’d almost certainly meet with Farage, which would be a nightmare for the diplomats.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting article in the Economist (so treat with care) on the international crisis in teacher retention.

    https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/07/07/the-rich-worlds-teachers-are-increasingly-morose

    Should we worry ? I thought we were about to run out of pupils.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting article in the Economist (so treat with care) on the international crisis in teacher retention.

    https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/07/07/the-rich-worlds-teachers-are-increasingly-morose

    That’s properly paywalled. I gave up on the Economist when it became really obvious that it was written by a bunch of 25-year-old arts graduates with a very tight style guide, who know almost nothing about either economics or world affairs.

    Anecotal evidence: teachers in my part of the world are complaining about wages not going up, because the schools here have no problem whatsoever recruiting British-qualified educators in any subject.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
    No, I'm just saying I think your comparison is wrong.
    Starmer was calling for Sunak to call an election and put an end to the government for many months. Trump is staying quiet on Biden's predicament while his close family publicly brief that Biden is fine to carry on.

    That's really not the same dynamic,
    If I were being obtuse, I might say you were suffering from 'Starmeritis', but that would be silly..
    Not quite. I wish Starmer well in sorting out big issues like economy, housing etc. as if he succeeds it's to all our benefits.

    However when he appoints dorks like Ed Miliband to frontline positions I just cant see how he will succeed.
    I had missed until this morning that David Lammy is now Foreign Secretary, replacing David Cameron. Good luck to the diplomats with that one!
    Yes I can see him and President Trump really hitting it off.
    If Trump is elected, Starmer should do what Sunak did with Cameron, and either appoint Blair as FS or as the Ambassador to the US. Even David Miliband as Ambassador would work, two men with a load of experience in the States and who would know the right things to say and do.

    Lammy is such a lightweight in that role, and with a history of gaffes. Trump’s team would totally railroad him over the important stuff like aid to Ukraine.
    Starmer certainly has options, though slick Blair as ambassador might be a culture clash In any event the person most likely to get through to Trump is Farage, all sorts of fun can come from that connection.
    LOL, as if Starmer would appoint Farage to anything.

    One interesting thing would be if Trump visited the UK as president or before the election, he’d almost certainly meet with Farage, which would be a nightmare for the diplomats.
    yes fish and chips on Clacton pier and then a deluge of madness as Trump spouts forth. Possibly a few bodies as the US security team shoot people with milkshakes and Starmer has to hand Sadiq Khan over for rendition to Guantanamo to maintain good relations.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    ...

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His opponents apparently share that analysis.

    All signs point to Trump allies now working strategically to keep Biden in the race. Case in point: Trump himself has been uncharacteristically disciplined not to upend the Dem infighting by piling on, or by reclaiming the news cycle with a VP. They do not want Biden to drop out.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1811616095498842548

    Don Jr says Biden did well enough to stay in the race. Jesse Watters guesses this may keep him in for weeks/months. The Heritage Foundation says they'll sue to keep Biden on the ballot (Trump hasn't even selected a VP yet, this isn't a thing). Pretty obvious what they're doing!
    https://x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1811564038838423986

    A curious absence of statements that the White House staff have acted criminally in hiding Biden's 'dementia'.
    Though I'm reasonably sure Leon's Twitter feed will carry on saying so.
    Kamala Harris has known the state of play for years. She now has to defend why she has participated in a cover up.
    Covering up Presidential weakness is not new.
    FDR, late Reagan and the entire four years of Trump's insane presidency.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,969
    Poor Joe!
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,625
    malcolmg said:

    .

    maaarsh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "'I don't want to jinx it' - PM on Euros bank holiday"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd197zdxv52o

    Bizarre kite to fly - impossible to do the following day and weirdly after the Lord Mayors any later
    Next day is utterly impossible, only day to make sense would be to pick a date a month or so later to have as a bank holiday and have a victory parade/celebrations then.
    more likely to be a wake having seen Spanish play.
    Indeed. It is not coming home.

  • TazTaz Posts: 13,625

    ...

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His opponents apparently share that analysis.

    All signs point to Trump allies now working strategically to keep Biden in the race. Case in point: Trump himself has been uncharacteristically disciplined not to upend the Dem infighting by piling on, or by reclaiming the news cycle with a VP. They do not want Biden to drop out.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1811616095498842548

    Don Jr says Biden did well enough to stay in the race. Jesse Watters guesses this may keep him in for weeks/months. The Heritage Foundation says they'll sue to keep Biden on the ballot (Trump hasn't even selected a VP yet, this isn't a thing). Pretty obvious what they're doing!
    https://x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1811564038838423986

    A curious absence of statements that the White House staff have acted criminally in hiding Biden's 'dementia'.
    Though I'm reasonably sure Leon's Twitter feed will carry on saying so.
    Kamala Harris has known the state of play for years. She now has to defend why she has participated in a cover up.
    Covering up Presidential weakness is not new.
    FDR, late Reagan and the entire four years of Trump's insane presidency.
    It may not be new, but he is right, that does not excuse it if it is indeed the case.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,650
    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    ‘Voters in the UK got poorer in the last five years because wages didn’t keep up with inflation. (Something that is true in essentially every developed country in the last five years thanks to Covid and commodity prices.)’

    Smithson Jr is always very careful to omit any mention of Brexit. He’s said before he simply doesn’t see any negative economic impact from Brexit.

    I find this intensely frustrating. There is none so blind as those that shall not see.

    All it needs is a simple google search. Here’s one: ‘Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable

    By almost every economic and financial measure, parting ways with the EU almost eight years ago has been disastrous for the UK. Is there no end in sight?’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/brexit-s-lasting-economic-and-financial-damage-looks-inescapable

    I suppose Bloomberg is a festering hotbed of traitorous Remainerism.

    There’s plenty more of that stuff is you care to look.

    At least have the balls to acknowledge, even fleetingly, the damage Brexit is doing to the UK. It’s a wonderful added UK-only extra that is making the impact of all these events worse and longer lasting in this country. If Labour had implemented something that had a comparable economic impact you would have page after page of the self-selected right-leaning majority of this site, year after year, bitching about it.

    Yet Brexit is poo-pooed, waved away, it’s just Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206

    ‘Voters in the UK got poorer in the last five years because wages didn’t keep up with inflation. (Something that is true in essentially every developed country in the last five years thanks to Covid and commodity prices.)’

    Smithson Jr is always very careful to omit any mention of Brexit. He’s said before he simply doesn’t see any negative economic impact from Brexit.

    I find this intensely frustrating. There is none so blind as those that shall not see.

    All it needs is a simple google search. Here’s one: ‘Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable

    By almost every economic and financial measure, parting ways with the EU almost eight years ago has been disastrous for the UK. Is there no end in sight?’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/brexit-s-lasting-economic-and-financial-damage-looks-inescapable

    I suppose Bloomberg is a festering hotbed of traitorous Remainerism.

    There’s plenty more of that stuff is you care to look.

    At least have the balls to acknowledge, even fleetingly, the damage Brexit is doing to the UK. It’s a wonderful added UK-only extra that is making the impact of all these events worse and longer lasting in this country. If Labour had implemented something that had a comparable economic impact you would have page after page of the self-selected right-leaning majority of this site, year after year, bitching about it.

    Yet Brexit is poo-pooed, waved away, it’s just Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine.

    Robert is correct. Brexit impact has been marginal the main drivers of UK economic performance have been the financial crisis and Covid.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206

    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.

    Trump - a man who struggles to keep it in his trousers - - is now running a Theocracy ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,478
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting article in the Economist (so treat with care) on the international crisis in teacher retention.

    https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/07/07/the-rich-worlds-teachers-are-increasingly-morose

    That’s properly paywalled. I gave up on the Economist when it became really obvious that it was written by a bunch of 25-year-old arts graduates with a very tight style guide, who know almost nothing about either economics or world affairs.

    (Snip)
    The Economist is still very very good at providing news from around the world in an intelligible form. I don't always agree with their stance, but it's mostly well-written and informative. It's head and shoulders above most newspapers in breadth and depth. And it's blooming brilliant on tech - for a non-tech news source.

    And since you seem to maintain the ludicrous position of being pro-Trump and pro-Ukraine, I might suggest you change your reading patterns. Whatever you're reading appears to be rotting your brain. ;)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,650

    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.

    Trump - a man who struggles to keep it in his trousers - - is now running a Theocracy ?
    Sure! And the theocrats all love him as delivering God's message. Its insane but its true.

    The GOP have gone to war against women and they will step it up if He is reelected. Simply remove women's rights to birth control and abortion and to travel out of state. Its God's will and God's chosen emissary is Mr Grab Em By the Pornstar Pussy.

    I don't think the Theocrats have yet realised that they guy they are following is down below, not up above.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,478

    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.

    Trump - a man who struggles to keep it in his trousers - - is now running a Theocracy ?
    Sure! And the theocrats all love him as delivering God's message. Its insane but its true.

    The GOP have gone to war against women and they will step it up if He is reelected. Simply remove women's rights to birth control and abortion and to travel out of state. Its God's will and God's chosen emissary is Mr Grab Em By the Pornstar Pussy.

    I don't think the Theocrats have yet realised that they guy they are following is down below, not up above.
    I do wonder if many know, but don't care, as they see Trump as a stepping-stone. In the medium and long term, he'll remove many of the barriers that stop their worldview from prevailing. The stupid believe Trump. The intelligent see him as a tool - in every possible meaning of that word.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,206

    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.

    Trump - a man who struggles to keep it in his trousers - - is now running a Theocracy ?
    Sure! And the theocrats all love him as delivering God's message. Its insane but its true.

    The GOP have gone to war against women and they will step it up if He is reelected. Simply remove women's rights to birth control and abortion and to travel out of state. Its God's will and God's chosen emissary is Mr Grab Em By the Pornstar Pussy.

    I don't think the Theocrats have yet realised that they guy they are following is down below, not up above.
    Oh dont be silly, a theocracy is Iran or a council run by the DUP. Trump is too erratic to be able maintain position consistently.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,100

    ...

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His opponents apparently share that analysis.

    All signs point to Trump allies now working strategically to keep Biden in the race. Case in point: Trump himself has been uncharacteristically disciplined not to upend the Dem infighting by piling on, or by reclaiming the news cycle with a VP. They do not want Biden to drop out.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1811616095498842548

    Don Jr says Biden did well enough to stay in the race. Jesse Watters guesses this may keep him in for weeks/months. The Heritage Foundation says they'll sue to keep Biden on the ballot (Trump hasn't even selected a VP yet, this isn't a thing). Pretty obvious what they're doing!
    https://x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1811564038838423986

    A curious absence of statements that the White House staff have acted criminally in hiding Biden's 'dementia'.
    Though I'm reasonably sure Leon's Twitter feed will carry on saying so.
    Kamala Harris has known the state of play for years. She now has to defend why she has participated in a cover up.
    Covering up Presidential weakness is not new.
    FDR, late Reagan and the entire four years of Trump's insane presidency.
    FDR was physical rather than mental. Both he and Churchill were unwell for much of the war but still had all their faculties. Reagan's issues, as far as I know, didn't materialise until well into his second term at which point there was not much anyone around him could do anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553

    NEW THREAD

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,511
    The best plan after the debate was likely to get Biden to announce he’s standing down in Jan 25, keep a low profile, and have a contested convention.

    There’s still JUST a small window left for him to stay to Jan and hence keep the non-Kamala candidates on the table. But not much of one. Which of course the cynic in me says is by design. The same muppets that have been running this catastrophic administration will largely keep the keys to power if there’s a handover to Kamala.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567

    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.

    Trump - a man who struggles to keep it in his trousers - - is now running a Theocracy ?
    Plenty of stories of Top Religious People doing terrible things with their tummy bananas.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,761

    ‘Voters in the UK got poorer in the last five years because wages didn’t keep up with inflation. (Something that is true in essentially every developed country in the last five years thanks to Covid and commodity prices.)’

    Smithson Jr is always very careful to omit any mention of Brexit. He’s said before he simply doesn’t see any negative economic impact from Brexit.

    I find this intensely frustrating. There is none so blind as those that shall not see.

    All it needs is a simple google search. Here’s one: ‘Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable

    By almost every economic and financial measure, parting ways with the EU almost eight years ago has been disastrous for the UK. Is there no end in sight?’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/brexit-s-lasting-economic-and-financial-damage-looks-inescapable

    I suppose Bloomberg is a festering hotbed of traitorous Remainerism.

    There’s plenty more of that stuff is you care to look.

    At least have the balls to acknowledge, even fleetingly, the damage Brexit is doing to the UK. It’s a wonderful added UK-only extra that is making the impact of all these events worse and longer lasting in this country. If Labour had implemented something that had a comparable economic impact you would have page after page of the self-selected right-leaning majority of this site, year after year, bitching about it.

    Yet Brexit is poo-pooed, waved away, it’s just Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine.

    Brexit is deeply unpopular simply because it has failed to deliver, particularly failing to deliver for the areas now supporting Reform or regained by Labour in the North and Midlands.

    I always said that the economic damage of Brexit would be rust rather than bust. Just a decade ago everything bad was blamed on the EU, now everything bad is blamed on Brexit and those who pushed it. It's going to be a long time before the Tories can shed the dead albatross of Brexit around their necks.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,480

    ‘Voters in the UK got poorer in the last five years because wages didn’t keep up with inflation. (Something that is true in essentially every developed country in the last five years thanks to Covid and commodity prices.)’

    Smithson Jr is always very careful to omit any mention of Brexit. He’s said before he simply doesn’t see any negative economic impact from Brexit.

    I find this intensely frustrating. There is none so blind as those that shall not see.

    All it needs is a simple google search. Here’s one: ‘Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable

    By almost every economic and financial measure, parting ways with the EU almost eight years ago has been disastrous for the UK. Is there no end in sight?’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/brexit-s-lasting-economic-and-financial-damage-looks-inescapable

    I suppose Bloomberg is a festering hotbed of traitorous Remainerism.

    There’s plenty more of that stuff is you care to look.

    At least have the balls to acknowledge, even fleetingly, the damage Brexit is doing to the UK. It’s a wonderful added UK-only extra that is making the impact of all these events worse and longer lasting in this country. If Labour had implemented something that had a comparable economic impact you would have page after page of the self-selected right-leaning majority of this site, year after year, bitching about it.

    Yet Brexit is poo-pooed, waved away, it’s just Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine.

    Yes it's waved away as its a load of crap.

    Looking over the long term of the Tories time in office, 2010-2024, which includes the whole time from before a referendum was scheduled through to it being announced, campaigned on, the referendum, the negotiations and the actual exit ... through all that the UK grew faster than the Eurozone. Both on a nominal and per capita basis.

    To pretend that the UK would have grown even faster than the Eurozone than we already have, were it not for Brexit, is unsubstantiated nonsense.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,045

    Its the middle of the night in Washington. I wonder how many late into the night crisis meetings have been held?

    They'll go for him today. Problem is that they need to put someone in who not only can spin past the shitshow which has been the final weeks of the Biden presidency *and* them not removing him who can then go and attack Project Giliad 2025 effectively.

    I don't follow US politics enough to be able to know who could do that. But someone has to. We're about to lose the US to a Theocracy.

    Trump - a man who struggles to keep it in his trousers - - is now running a Theocracy ?
    Not yet! But God moves in mysterious ways.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,227
    DavidL said:

    ‘Voters in the UK got poorer in the last five years because wages didn’t keep up with inflation. (Something that is true in essentially every developed country in the last five years thanks to Covid and commodity prices.)’

    Smithson Jr is always very careful to omit any mention of Brexit. He’s said before he simply doesn’t see any negative economic impact from Brexit.

    I find this intensely frustrating. There is none so blind as those that shall not see.

    All it needs is a simple google search. Here’s one: ‘Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable

    By almost every economic and financial measure, parting ways with the EU almost eight years ago has been disastrous for the UK. Is there no end in sight?’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/brexit-s-lasting-economic-and-financial-damage-looks-inescapable

    I suppose Bloomberg is a festering hotbed of traitorous Remainerism.

    There’s plenty more of that stuff is you care to look.

    At least have the balls to acknowledge, even fleetingly, the damage Brexit is doing to the UK. It’s a wonderful added UK-only extra that is making the impact of all these events worse and longer lasting in this country. If Labour had implemented something that had a comparable economic impact you would have page after page of the self-selected right-leaning majority of this site, year after year, bitching about it.

    Yet Brexit is poo-pooed, waved away, it’s just Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine. Covid and Ukraine.

    Robert is correct. Brexit impact has been marginal the main drivers of UK economic performance have been the financial crisis and Covid.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

    It is bizarre how so many are determined to blame Brexit for things that were well in place during our membership of the EU. Our horrendous trade deficit grew whilst we were in the SM. Our poor productivity is a long standing problem, as is the lack of capital investment in infrastructure and our complete inability to produce such infrastructure at a sane cost. The failures of our education system to produce the skills that we need resulting in us having to import skills through immigration. Our long term problems with not building enough housing for that immigration making job mobility much poorer. Our tendency to overregulate things and overreact to instances where regulation has failed.

    All of these factors reduce our capacity for growth. There are some counterbalancing factors, in fairness. Our elite education is world leading. We have the advantage of using English. This is an attractive place for people to come and work. You only need to watch a series of Masterchef Professionals to see how we attract able, motivated people from around the world. The ease with which people can be hired and fired in the UK compared to the rest of the continent gives us a fairly high employment activity rate. We are very good at financial services and some other service industries. We continue to attract a lot of inward investment in those areas.

    Brexit has been as equally irrelevant to our strengths as our weaknesses. It is a chimera to suggest getting back in the SM, for example, would help when our most chronic problems evolved when we were in it. What we need is a government that focuses on our weaknesses and our strengths without irrelevant distractions. I continue to hope, if not expect, the new government to do that. I wish them well in that endeavour.
    The bitterness from some is that Brexit hasn't resulted in what they predicted.

    For some leavers they wanted 'Singapore on Severn'.

    For some remainers they wanted the mass unemployment etc that was predicted.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,429
    That’s actually an interesting one. There are a number of spats between Germany and France in the economic sphere at the moment. And never forget the German worship of sound money.

    For example, days before the first launch of Ariane 6, Eumetsat cancelled a planned launch with Ariane 6, moving it to the cheaper and proven SpaceX F9.

    On the face of it an arguable decision - the satellite is unique and expensive and it would have been the first flight of that configuration of Ariane 6. When originally booked it would have flown years after A6 went into service. But A6 was delayed. And delayed.

    But Ariane is seen as a French controlled EU champion. To the the French this is something like treason.

    Worse, the vote by the controlling countries in Eumetsat was everyone vs France. Germany has orchestrated the votes before the meeting to get a 14-1 result.

    https://europeanspaceflight.com/cnes-chief-responds-harshly-to-eumetsats-decision-to-ditch-ariane-6/

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