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Can I Tell You a Secret? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Turning on the US news media channels who usually run defence for Democrats are talking consistently about when, not if.

    Their sheepishness in changing their opinions has made them look weak and ridiculous.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Imagine Biden comes out and just starts attacking the media..and says the media made this all up and he ain't going anywhere!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Good point
    PMQs, general HoC work, proper cabinet meetings, the weekly audience with the monarch.

    It would very quickly become apparent to too many people to keep quiet.

    I don't even think many people would keep it quiet even if they could do so.

    What's remarkable is that so many leading Dems have done so for so long.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    I do wonder if my and @kinabalu ’s fabled but somewhat outre prediction that neither Biden nor Trump would run might still have legs?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589
    Andy_JS said:

    Turning on the US news media channels who usually run defence for Democrats are talking consistently about when, not if.

    Their sheepishness in changing their opinions has made them look weak and ridiculous.
    And possibly culpable.

    Many must have know and kept quiet.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited July 11
    CNN thought the news conference was starting any minute well over 30 mins ago. Ever since then it's been expected "any moment".

    I'm starting to wonder if it's actually going to take place.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 11

    I do wonder if my and @kinabalu ’s fabled but somewhat outre prediction that neither Biden nor Trump would run might still have legs?

    How Trump be stopped? He won't be in prison come the GE (his court cases are just going to get bogged down in the legal process), he is ahead in the polls, he controls the Republican base.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 11
    MikeL said:

    CNN thought the news conference was starting any minute well over 30 mins ago. Ever since then it's been expected "any moment".

    I'm starting to wonder if it's actually going to take place.

    I presume after a busy couple of days he is probably gone into debate Biden mode. Remember he normally only works 11-4.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Good point
    PMQs, general HoC work, proper cabinet meetings, the weekly audience with the monarch.

    It would very quickly become apparent to too many people to keep quiet.

    I don't even think many people would keep it quiet even if they could do so.

    What's remarkable is that so many leading Dems have done so for so long.
    The problem is the system there as you pointed out . At this time I think they have no choice but to come out in force and ask him to stand down.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    I do wonder if my and @kinabalu ’s fabled but somewhat outre prediction that neither Biden nor Trump would run might still have legs?

    How Trump be stopped? He won't be in prison come the GE (his court cases are just going to get bogged down in the legal process), he is ahead in the polls, he controls the Republican base.
    I can think of a few ways. I’m no longer forecasting it. But, who knows?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Not entirely sure this is the right time for the Telegraph to publish this article.

    "Let’s think twice before banning crossbows
    Knee-jerk legislation has a long history of being ineffective, indeed counterproductive, in tackling the problem it is purporting to solve
    MICHAEL MOSBACHER"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/11/lets-think-twice-before-banning-crossbows/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 11
    Andy_JS said:

    Turning on the US news media channels who usually run defence for Democrats are talking consistently about when, not if.

    Their sheepishness in changing their opinions has made them look weak and ridiculous.
    That hasn't stopped the media in the past.....they ran Trump is a Russian agent for 2+ years, jumping on all sorts of crazy conspiracy theories. Rather than focusing on Trump being an ego-maniac who is really only out for himself, making him ill suited for POTUS.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Biden is speaking.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 11
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden is speaking.

    Is news these days....breaking news...Biden can actually speak a sentence.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited July 11
    Seems I nodded off waiting for the press conference, past my bedtime I think. Up now though
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden is speaking.

    Incoherent, slurred words.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 11
    And he has malfunctioned.....I wouldn't have picked Vice President Trump if I didn't think he could win..
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591
    "Vice President Trump"
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden is speaking.

    Incoherent, slurred words.
    What's worse, calling Zelensky "President Putin" or calling Harris "Vice President Trump"?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Starting to think Jill Biden might be nasty piece of work.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    He is confusing himself over the confusing Putin story....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    What is he prattling on about.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591
    edited July 11

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden is speaking.

    Incoherent, slurred words.
    What's worse, calling Zelensky "President Putin" or calling Harris "Vice President Trump"?
    Definitely calling Zelensky Putin.

    I don't think for a minute he thinks his Vice President is Trump. But he can't articulate what he is thinking clearly any more.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    mwadams said:

    "Vice President Trump"

    Did he say that??!?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    mwadams said:

    "Vice President Trump"

    Did he actually say that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    mwadams said:

    "Vice President Trump"

    Did he actually say that?
    Yes.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591

    And he has malfunctioned.....I wouldn't have picked Vice President Trump if I didn't think he could win..

    He did say "she could win". It's the names he's muddling not the concepts. But it is not good.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591

    mwadams said:

    "Vice President Trump"

    Did he actually say that?
    Sadly, yes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    mwadams said:

    "Vice President Trump"

    Did he actually say that?
    Yes.
    Just seen the clip.

    Good grief, it gets worse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    I don't think the I did amazing on economy is going to fly in US, economists says so. Inflation, particularly on daily goods in the US has been huge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 11
    I was told not to go over to New York (to get the chip industry sorted)....I think you mean Taiwan.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964

    mwadams said:

    "Vice President Trump"

    Did he actually say that?
    Yes.
    Please make it stop.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    This is really weird, his bragging is as bad as Trump.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Jill Stein should be ashamed of herself.
  • SkiddertonSkidderton Posts: 15
    I think Jimmy Carter has as much chance of a second term as Joe Biden does now
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Biden could deliver what he most feared .

    Both Houses to Trump and loads of state legislatures. Sad that he’s now going to trash his legacy and refuse to stand down .

    I suspect Jill and Hunter Biden are the problem and keep telling him to run .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    I have no idea what he is talking about...my staff...love my staff....they add things to the end...my wife...she give me hell...erhh well...errhhh...that's enough.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591

    This is really weird, his bragging is as bad as Trump.

    This whispering to us is really odd. Does he do that often?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    I got advice from my Commander in Chief...errh....is that what he calls Jill?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    He is the Polish version of Prof Peston....5 minutes and still not go to the question.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Did I hear correctly that it's now President Putin and Vice President Trump?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    Did I hear correctly that it's now President Putin and Vice President Trump?

    Yes. Scary world.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited July 11
    Journalists are starting to ask Biden two questions each - to see if he can remember the 2nd question after he has answered the 1st one.
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67
    If all this doesn't do it, nothing will.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Is Biden toast, then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 12
    I honestly have no idea what he is talking about. Words are coming out, but it is just rambling. Its like ChatGPT v2
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    Is Biden toast, then?

    This isn't the worst Biden, but I can't believe anybody thinks this bloke is in a fit state to be leader of the free world.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Big_Ian said:

    If all this doesn't do it, nothing will.

    I think the dam bursting will turn into a flood after NATO
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Donald Trump, Jr has praised Joe Biden’s performance at the Nato summit, saying he is “doing ok” and “could stay in if he wanted to. He’s not too bad.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    He is telling the same story again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Is Biden toast, then?

    No, his press conference is fine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Did I hear correctly that it's now President Putin and Vice President Trump?

    Just warning of what the US risks under a Trump presidency I assume!
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Biden favourite again for the nomination!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    He has just mixed up Gaza and West Bank.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited July 12
    Just watched tonight's Newsnight.

    Bonnie Greer started off as a Biden supporter and about 15 mins later she changed her mind after seeing the footage of the Putin mix-up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0021096/newsnight-the-pressure-mounts-on-joe-biden
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    He is now randomly shouting.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    He has just mixed up Gaza and West Bank.

    As does half of SOAS and Oxbridge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Andy_JS said:

    Just watched tonight's Newsnight.

    Bonnie Greer started off as a Biden supporter and about 15 mins later she changed her mind after seeing the footage of the Putin mix-up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0021096/newsnight-the-pressure-mounts-on-joe-biden

    Yes Bonnie Greer, that well known resident of a rustbelt swing state!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 12
    Trump will still eat this version of Biden alive in another debate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    SoCal Virginia

    Biden 47% Trump 44%

    Harris 47% Trump 47%
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1G2DxZyffDhUSzWfGmbkJeuxgqMJkDdY1/view
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    He is now randomly shouting.

    That shouty moment wasn't good for him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    stjohn said:

    He is now randomly shouting.

    That shouty moment wasn't good for him.
    It was really weird.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 12
    stjohn said:

    He is now randomly shouting.

    That shouty moment wasn't good for him.
    It was really weird, he was mumbling some unconnected story that I didn't follow, next my headphones were exploding with him shouting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just watched tonight's Newsnight.

    Bonnie Greer started off as a Biden supporter and about 15 mins later she changed her mind after seeing the footage of the Putin mix-up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0021096/newsnight-the-pressure-mounts-on-joe-biden

    Yes Bonnie Greer, that well known resident of a rustbelt swing state!
    She's representative of the type of voice that will be important in deciding whether Biden goes or not,
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964

    He has just mixed up Gaza and West Bank.

    A key strategy. Make so many mistakes the media can't concern a single one of them
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Nunu5 said:

    He has just mixed up Gaza and West Bank.

    A key strategy. Make so many mistakes the media can't concern a single one of them
    That is the Trump strategy to lying :-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    stjohn said:

    He is now randomly shouting.

    That shouty moment wasn't good for him.
    It was really weird.
    It was emphasising his support for gun control
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    HYUFD said:

    stjohn said:

    He is now randomly shouting.

    That shouty moment wasn't good for him.
    It was really weird.
    It was emphasising his support for gun control
    He goes from whispering into the mic, to rambling stories that are unconnected to the question, to rage shouting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 12
    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    On a good day that is true. The first 30 minutes of the debate, no, he was absolutely out of it. He couldn't speak. I think its probably both, he is old and on a good day struggles, on a bad day, he has no clue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Trump will still eat this version of Biden alive in another debate.

    There is only 1 more debate due in the same month Trump potentially could be sent to prison.

    Biden also has such low expectations now if he does even slightly better than the first debate that is a win for him
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    And back to the weird whispering into the mic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    He is now randomly shouting.

    The only bit he shouted about was when talking about kids being killed by guns.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Pulpstar said:

    He is now randomly shouting.

    The only bit he shouted about was when talking about kids being killed by guns.
    Sure, but it was weird...he was mumbling and all of a sudden yelling, then back to whispering.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    He still has a far better grasp of policies than Trump has ever had. But he can't express himself particularly clearly generally, and at times it is painful to listen to. You can't win a close election like that even if you can do the day job. And the question of whether he could still do the day job in 4 years time is impossible for him to answer sufficiently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    One of the last questions asked by a reporter is about whether the campaign showed Biden polling that suggested Harris could beat Trump if the president steps aside. Biden dismissed the question and said the polling doesn't exist.

    Well it does.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625

    One of the last questions asked by a reporter is about whether the campaign showed Biden polling that suggested Harris could beat Trump if the president steps aside. Biden dismissed the question and said the polling doesn't exist.

    Well it does.

    He ended up saying he'd only drop out if they say it's impossible for him to win.

    [Cue weird whisper] "They're not saying that..."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 12
    The bar is now so low, talking words for an hour is seen as passed the bar. I think back to Obama vs McCain, and they said well McCain is too old, too out of it, not smart enough, Christ how standards have fallen.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    He still has a far better grasp of policies than Trump has ever had. But he can't express himself particularly clearly generally, and at times it is painful to listen to. You can't win a close election like that even if you can do the day job. And the question of whether he could still do the day job in 4 years time is impossible for him to answer sufficiently.
    Yes. This is the point. He showed an excellent grasp of policy - and off the cuff when asked. But it isn't good enough is it? It's whether you can lead in the toughest job. I think he may well have put to bed the idea he's senile. But he's just, old? He's a guy of a certain age who struggles with the rigours of the presidency. No disparagement. I'd be delighted if I am like Biden at 81. I have huge sympathy with him and his politics and he was the right man in 2020. But come on. It's not about him. It's not good enough.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Unless the congressional Black caucus moves away from Biden publicly then Biden could survive
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I'm covered green Harris, level overall Trump beating Harris Nd long Biden. Happier after the presser than before it.
    He did not exhibit senility or dementia on that performance.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    He certainly did much better tonight than I expected.

    And Betfair agrees. Nomination:

    Pre press conference: 3.15
    Post press conference: 2.34

    The thing is that at least most polls show him doing better than Harris.

    And will the debate performance just drop out of memories, just like Trump's conviction has. There is another debate but it's two months before polling day - so may just drop away as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    MikeL said:

    He certainly did much better tonight than I expected.

    And Betfair agrees. Nomination:

    Pre press conference: 3.15
    Post press conference: 2.34

    The thing is that at least most polls show him doing better than Harris.

    And will the debate performance just drop out of memories, just like Trump's conviction has. There is another debate but it's two months before polling day - so may just drop away as well.

    I think this will come down to a "Whose side are you on" election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Jimmy is on 703 wickets with 4 left. Maybe 707 would be a nice number to end with.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/c98qxp15y55o
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Biden at NATO summit.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 <<—-posted on HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543 <<— not from his own account this time!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    He certainly did much better tonight than I expected.

    And Betfair agrees. Nomination:

    Pre press conference: 3.15
    Post press conference: 2.34

    The thing is that at least most polls show him doing better than Harris.

    And will the debate performance just drop out of memories, just like Trump's conviction has. There is another debate but it's two months before polling day - so may just drop away as well.

    I think this will come down to a "Whose side are you on" election.
    And if they're sensible, it'll be "Trump, or the American People" not "Trump or Biden"
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689

    Penddu2 said:

    Not sure if there is a betting opportunity here... But latest developments in Vaughan Gething saga means he must be toast by now......

    Couldn't happen to a more self serving arrogant condescending c*** - with the possible exception of Nigel Farage..

    Racist Welsh, like the Scots getting rid of their first non white First Minister at the first opportunity?
    I absolutely reject your accusation. I have no problem with his skin colour or place of birth. I have a huge problem with his corruption and arrogance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    edited July 12
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689
    AlsoLei said:

    Taz said:

    PB brains trust: If I wanted to go somewhere in Europe for a week on my own, wanting some sunshine and perhaps some socialising with 25-35 year olds, for not a large sum of money, where should I go?

    But not Magaluf/Ibiza vibes.

    Maybe one for @Leon

    Krakow.
    Not great for sunshine, though!

    How about Napoli? Plenty of sun, cheaper than most other parts of western europe, a young crowd in the centre (older folk go to Sorrento or Capri), plenty of buzzy cafes and bars, v.good transport, and lots to see and do.
    And where you will be remembered for eternity as your lifeless body will be entombed in ash and lava when Campi Flegrei erupts (95% chance of eruption in next 12 months!!)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His opponents apparently share that analysis.

    All signs point to Trump allies now working strategically to keep Biden in the race. Case in point: Trump himself has been uncharacteristically disciplined not to upend the Dem infighting by piling on, or by reclaiming the news cycle with a VP. They do not want Biden to drop out.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1811616095498842548

    Don Jr says Biden did well enough to stay in the race. Jesse Watters guesses this may keep him in for weeks/months. The Heritage Foundation says they'll sue to keep Biden on the ballot (Trump hasn't even selected a VP yet, this isn't a thing). Pretty obvious what they're doing!
    https://x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1811564038838423986

    A curious absence of statements that the White House staff have acted criminally in hiding Biden's 'dementia'.
    Though I'm reasonably sure Leon's Twitter feed will carry on saying so.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    edited July 12
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His opponents apparently share that analysis.

    All signs point to Trump allies now working strategically to keep Biden in the race. Case in point: Trump himself has been uncharacteristically disciplined not to upend the Dem infighting by piling on, or by reclaiming the news cycle with a VP. They do not want Biden to drop out.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1811616095498842548

    Don Jr says Biden did well enough to stay in the race. Jesse Watters guesses this may keep him in for weeks/months. The Heritage Foundation says they'll sue to keep Biden on the ballot (Trump hasn't even selected a VP yet, this isn't a thing). Pretty obvious what they're doing!
    https://x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1811564038838423986

    A curious absence of statements that the White House staff have acted criminally in hiding Biden's 'dementia'.
    Though I'm reasonably sure Leon's Twitter feed will carry on saying so.
    Kamala Harris has known the state of play for years. She now has to defend why she has participated in a cover up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Rep Jim Himes.

    https://x.com/jahimes/status/1811558379661185359
    Joe Biden’s record of public service is unrivaled. His accomplishments are immense. His legacy as a great president is secure.

    He must not risk that legacy, those accomplishments and American democracy to soldier on in the face of the horrors promised by Donald Trump.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    Nigelb said:

    Rep Jim Himes.

    https://x.com/jahimes/status/1811558379661185359
    Joe Biden’s record of public service is unrivaled. His accomplishments are immense. His legacy as a great president is secure.

    He must not risk that legacy, those accomplishments and American democracy to soldier on in the face of the horrors promised by Donald Trump.

    What has this guy got against the Vice President ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    MJW said:

    My view on Biden. As someone who has grandparents and a parent struggle with their brain going. He's not senile. He responds to questions well. Quicker than many would. But...he's too old and it's a struggle to deal with the quickness and work of the presidency.

    It's not physicality, it's dexterity. Maybe those who doubt him are wrong. But he's the President. And running against the greatest threat to Western Peace, ever. Time to get off the stage Joe and help others.

    I agree, I've always thought it's just old age. He's probably slightly better than most 82 year olds.
    On the one hand, it's not the performance of someone who can credibly ask for four more years; on the other hand it makes the hyperbole from the likes of @Leon look a bit stupid - but not enough to rebut it in a politically useful manner.

    And he's only going to get worse. A few days back I posted a White House clip of him back in February this year; the decline since then is quite clear.

    He's a very stubborn old guy, and that leaves the Democrats with a big problem. If he doesn't step down between now and the convention, he's just gambling with all that he's achieved for what's very likely an illusory chance of another four years.
    His decline has been obvious for several years but covered up by his team who now look like a bunch of liars.

    On the other hand not much being said by Trump he is following the Starmer approach of keeping shtum while his opponent makes mistakes.
    While Trump's surrogates say in plain terms it's fine for Biden to carry on.
    That's really not the Starmer approach.
    Oh dont be silly, Starmer had his outriders much like Trump. Youre just letting your Trumpitis cloud your judgement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    nico679 said:

    In terms of VP picks in case Harris becomes the nominee .

    Much depends on whether Dems think the Senate is salvageable. You’d want to avoid giving up a Senator from a tough state to win in Georgia if Ossoff was in the frame .

    If Biden does withdraw then I can only see Harris in contention . The Dems can’t win if they piss off black voters and the optics would look terrible if they tried to put someone else in .

    Of course, if Harris did become the nominee one person we could firmly rule out as her VP pick is Gavin Newsom. Both Californians.

    Obvious candidates would then become Whitmer, Beshear, Buttigieg.

    Beshear would be the best at balancing a Harris ticket from most points of view if he could be persuaded to put himself forward, but given his commitment to Kentucky and lack of interest in national office he may well not.
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