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Some more election stats – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415

    OnboardG1 said:

    I should thank @Quincel for all the excellent betting tips I did absolutely nothing with.

    I followed tips by @Quincel @Peter_the_Punter @Heathener @Sean_F @Foxy @viewcode and @Andy_JS. There were one or two others as well.

    You can learn something from everyone in politicalbetting.
    @PedestrianRock deserves a very honourable mention for pointing out the value on Refuk just before the Faragasm kicked off in earnest.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,416
    BBC news making a big play of the inequatable vote share.

    It's 6.35, Starmer must have knocked off for the weekend.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    Sean_F said:

    I think the dividing line between fash and non-fash is violence vs a willingness to accept the rules of democracy.

    Yes, I hate to think how the snowflakes on here would react if an ACTUAL Fascist came along and started shooting people he didnt like, and passing an Enabling Act to cancel the democratic process

    Having already used up the word Fascist for people on the normal conservative right, what would they call this new person? Super-duper-mega-totes-Fascist, honestly? The childishness epitomises THEIR childishness

    Try asking someone in Iran what it is like to live under a REAL Fascist regime
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,527
    edited July 5
    Sean_F said:

    I think the dividing line between fash and non-fash is violence vs a willingness to accept the rules of democracy.

    Hmmm. I did look into it a while ago. I came up with my own definition:

    Order, discipline, obedience, regimentation, loyalty to one’s group, the virtue of strength and critically, investing in an all powerful leader who has the will to revitalise the social fabric of the nation.

    I think Reform are some way off. To start with they need to get themselves a uniform.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,841
    Interestingly, the Mail seems to have already decided that it likes the look of Starmer and his wife. as a couple for public events.

    Shades of the Blair era.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701

    Sean_F said:

    I think the dividing line between fash and non-fash is violence vs a willingness to accept the rules of democracy.

    Hmmm. I did look into it a while ago. I came up with my own definition:

    Order, discipline, obedience, regimentation, loyalty to one’s group, the virtue of strength and critically, investing in an all powerful leader who has the will to revitalise the social fabric of the nation.

    I think Reform are some way off. To start with they need to get themselves a uniform.
    That's all true, but @Sean_F's further point is crucial. Actual fascists despise democracy, and do all they can to subvert it, or simply overthrow it
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,157

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Its what they get done in office which will matter not how many diversity boxes they tick.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,070
    Andy_JS said:

    Raducanu has just started her match against Sakkari of Greece on centre court.

    And looking good. Along with Heathener I'm on her pre tourny at 40/1. That was value. She's a serious talent and dedicated to tennis. Big mistake to think otherwise just because of the commercial contracts etc.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,088

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Tokenism. Are any of them any good at their jobs ?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Looks like I might just miss out on the Turnout bet. You win some...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,710

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Yes but nobody in the administration is talking of rejoining the EU not least their leader who says not in his lifetime

    Must hurt Ian Dunt and others who are rejoiners
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    edited July 5
    Far from being a Fascist, Farage is just a classic old school rightwing Tory, with a populist streak, a libertarian bent, and a fair bit of charisma

    It's just that almost everyone to the left of this has the analytical skills of a toddler (cf @Nigel_Foremain and @BartholomewRoberts, and a toddler possessed of a one word vocabulary: FASCIST!!!!
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box..

    ..or if you use it as a code word for
    "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place"
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,902

    Tres said:

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?

    Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
    No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
    In the UK you can, but the Labour Party is a bit more choosy.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,150

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Now that the Brexit era is over, can we have a change of pundits? Especially if it involves an extended period of silence from Ian Dunt.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,157
    There seemed to be rather more Conservative losses by small majorities than holds.

    Has anyone got a list of majorities of under 100, under 500, under 1000 ?

    Any Conservative loss to a majority less than 100, possibly higher, can be directly attributed to those imbeciles who bet on the election date.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,251
    edited July 5

    SNP guy has just conceded the Inverness Skye and Lochaber contest. Will be the 72nd LD seat tomorrow

    Incredible victory. Justice for Charles Kennedy too after the way the Fat Crofter treated him in the 2015 election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,673
    edited July 5
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
    Cameron is the alleged behind the scenes leader of the outgoing Government, and he's as elected as Viscount Castlereagh.
    Can a life peer renounce their life peerage?
    Vide Lady Mone (but not sure of the details).
    Yes, by retiring or resigning.

    Getting on for 200 have done it since 2014:

    Text of the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 as in force today (including any amendments) within the United Kingdom, from legislation.gov.uk. As of May 2024, 178 peers have resigned or retired, and a further ten peers were removed under the Act's provisions regarding non-attendance.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    edited July 5
    One thing I like about Spain is that they consistently play the ball in front of their team-mates.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Andy_JS said:

    There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.

    I would just include those people. They were labelled as what they were labelled.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,439
    carnforth said:

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Now that the Brexit era is over, can we have a change of pundits? Especially if it involves an extended period of silence from Ian Dunt.
    Any deal that involves Peston on a long holiday to a very small island without a return ticket is fine with me.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,016

    So enjoying the Right suddenly discovering electoral reform and how FPTP actually works.

    Can I just point out that as someone vaguely on the Right I still don't agree with PR.

    Though I do find it ironic that Labour talk about a fairer voting system right up until they win a stonking majority with FPTP and then they drop it like a hot potato.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Just listened to the Starmer speech. Good on him to acknowledge the extra effort it would have taken someone of Asian origin to become the PM. He went up in my estimation briefly after that.

    In the end after all the doomsday warnings. Rishi did poorly but OK.

    A new chapter begins.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 387
    edited July 5
    Great result for Labour in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

    Complete SNP Implosion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_h-Eileanan_an_Iar_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Still taking the piss, I see, with their absurdly small number of constituents. Gotta love the Western Isles!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45
    I find it astonishing a tenth of Reform voters would have voted Lib Dem. Presumably this was the 'get rid of Tory' choice in their area
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,727
    Omnium said:

    carnforth said:

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Now that the Brexit era is over, can we have a change of pundits? Especially if it involves an extended period of silence from Ian Dunt.
    Any deal that involves Peston on a long holiday to a very small island without a return ticket is fine with me.
    He would miss the plane as it would take him so long to answer the questions at check in.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    If we’re going all four Yorkshiremen, I expect that Macdonald’s and Attlee’s governments contained a lot more people who’d experienced real privation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    1 - 1

    Jammy bastards....
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,716
    That net difference of 22% would probably have saved a fair number of seats.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,273

    Interestingly, the Mail seems to have already decided that it likes the look of Starmer and his wife. as a couple for public events.

    Shades of the Blair era.

    No shades of the Blair era, Lady Starmer is a good looking woman ripe for the photo spreads of the Daily Mail whilst Cherie was a better fit for radio.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,527
    edited July 5
    Two numerical points to ponder. The vote share of the two biggest parties combined is the lowest since? Ever? The gap in seats between the second and third party is the lowest since?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Yes but nobody in the administration is talking of rejoining the EU not least their leader who says not in his lifetime

    Must hurt Ian Dunt and others who are rejoiners
    A pint of bitter, perhaps BigG?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,673

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
    Sorry, that's baloney.

    Literally sentence two of Starmer's first speech as PM:

    "I want to thank the outgoing Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak; his achievement as the first British Asian Prime Minister of our country ..."
    https://youtu.be/g6YJ0GMi0hk?t=35
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Hadn't realised how close Reform ran Labour in Llanelli.
    An early tip for next time, if Reform bed in, Lowestoft will crack next time out. I'll keep you informed.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,273
    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I just want football to be the winner.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,651

    SNP guy has just conceded the Inverness Skye and Lochaber contest. Will be the 72nd LD seat tomorrow

    At Holyrood the area is represented by Kate Forbes. This means that she will now have a fight on her hands as unionists get behind her LibDem challenger in 2026.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701

    Great result for Labour in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

    Complete SNP Implosion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_h-Eileanan_an_Iar_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Still taking the piss, I see, with their absurdly small number of constituents. Gotta love the Western Isles!

    2024 really is the death of Scottish independence, for a generation. Thankfully
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,841
    edited July 5
    boulay said:

    Interestingly, the Mail seems to have already decided that it likes the look of Starmer and his wife. as a couple for public events.

    Shades of the Blair era.

    No shades of the Blair era, Lady Starmer is a good looking woman ripe for the photo spreads of the Daily Mail whilst Cherie was a better fit for radio.
    This is more in the mood music surrounding a couple, I would say.

    The Mail briefly enjoyed the Cool Britannia milieu around the Blairs, and today it has an enthusiastic article about "Lady Vic" Starmer which seems similarly enamoured of the people and milieu around her, as much as the lady herself.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 256

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    There's more to fascism than you just not liking them. Politics of division are the bread and butter of all democracies and all political parties.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I just want football to be the winner.
    And it isn't. ANOTHER boring game

    Awful tournament
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141
    Leon said:

    Far from being a Fascist, Farage is just a classic old school rightwing Tory, with a populist streak, a libertarian bent, and a fair bit of charisma

    It's just that almost everyone to the left of this has the analytical skills of a toddler (cf @Nigel_Foremain and @BartholomewRoberts, and a toddler possessed of a one word vocabulary: FASCIST!!!!

    Na, because you, and some like you, are of his ilk, right wing, narcissistic and probably slightly insane. The natural heirs to Oswald Mosely
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I just want football to be the winner.
    Sod that. I want them to have 17 bookings and six sendings off, to deplete the winner when we meet them.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    He clearly lacked political nous but isn`t what what Isaac Levido and others supposed to be good at? Potentially lots of seats lost with own goals.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5

    I find it astonishing a tenth of Reform voters would have voted Lib Dem. Presumably this was the 'get rid of Tory' choice in their area
    That’s exactly what I said both last night and this morning.

    If Reform disappears, just under a third of them would have stayed in their armchair, just over a third would have backed the Tories, and exactly the same just over a third would have voted Labour, LibDem or Green. Given the efficiency of tactical voting, there’s next to nothing there for the Tories.

    The idea that you can add Ref + Con and suddenly the blues get all their seats back is for the birds. The right wasn’t split. The government was crap. JRM got this terribly wrong in his interview with the C4 election programme shortly before he lost his seat.

    If the Tories fall for the line that “we just need to get the Reform voters back” they will be denying the gravity of their predicament and risk going up a blind alley.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Sean_F said:

    That net difference of 22% would probably have saved a fair number of seats.
    But not a long term strategic aim, there's too little reward. It's the stay at homes and blue wallers they need back first
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    edited July 5

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I just want football to be the winner.
    Sod that. I want them to have 17 bookings and six sendings off, to deplete the winner when we meet them.
    That needs to happen to the winner of the semi-final v. France/Portugal.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,527

    Hadn't realised how close Reform ran Labour in Llanelli.
    An early tip for next time, if Reform bed in, Lowestoft will crack next time out. I'll keep you informed.

    I wouldn't have expected that but it's a Labour/Plaid battleground so might not require the highest vote share.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    He clearly lacked political nous but isn`t what what Isaac Levido and others supposed to be good at? Potentially lots of seats lost with own goals.
    Maybe dozens. It was almost as if they were afraid Farage would give them a Chinese burn and take their dinner money if they even looked at him in a funny way.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    There's more to fascism than you just not liking them. Politics of division are the bread and butter of all democracies and all political parties.
    Duh, no shit Sherlock. I am so grateful for being educated by you, oh purveyor of great political insight.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    IanB2 said:

    I find it astonishing a tenth of Reform voters would have voted Lib Dem. Presumably this was the 'get rid of Tory' choice in their area
    That’s exactly what I said both last night and this morning.

    If Reform disappears, just under a third of them would have stayed in their armchair, just over a third would have backed the Tories, and exactly the same just over a third would have voted Labour, LibDem or Green. Given the efficiency of tactical voting, there’s next to nothing there for the Tories.

    The idea that you can add Ref + Con and suddenly the blues get all their seats back is for the birds. The right wasn’t split. The government was crap.
    Be interesting to know what the second preferences of Labour voters were. That might be key to the 2029 election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,673

    kle4 said:

    Yarmouth Reform MP donating his salary as MP every month to local organisations

    Loaded I assume?
    Yes. He's flush.
    I don’t see Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hint doing the same.

    I know there's no reason why they should, but were I Rishi, I would have set aside a yearly budget to splash cash around worthy causes - why not?
    Lee Anderson donated his salary increases to local charities. He was used to not being flush, which is the other option.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Yes, but you're what is techinically known, to professional neuroscientists, as a "fucking tragic old weirdo" - so with all due respect that slightly detracts froim your argument

    Listening to what you say is like paying attention to the guy who shouts loudly, on his own, at the front of the bus, every time a bird goes by
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,070
    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,463

    SNP guy has just conceded the Inverness Skye and Lochaber contest. Will be the 72nd LD seat tomorrow

    At Holyrood the area is represented by Kate Forbes. This means that she will now have a fight on her hands as unionists get behind her LibDem challenger in 2026.
    I see the SNP will only prosper with Forbes in government lads have gone a bit quiet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    No.

    He needed to be called out on it, every day, for the past four weeks. Now he has a seat in Westminster.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    Shame about the weather
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    ... Mrs P. Premium Bonds jackpot.

    (Am I taking this too far?)
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 256
    Sean_F said:

    I think the dividing line between fash and non-fash is violence vs a willingness to accept the rules of democracy.

    Political violence to achieve aims, if i seem to remember is quite widely supported amongst under 25s. It might have been an American survey.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Anybody would think the Tories over the past 14 years had just been rich white men....checks notes....The problem with the Tories wasn't diversity, it was too many where a bit shit across the board, men, women, white, non-white, etc, particularly in recent years.

    The real problem the Tories have now is a lot of the better ones have stepped down or lost their seat. A bit like Labour 2010, they lost a lot of their better MPs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    And then the tax rises kicked in....
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,273
    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I just want football to be the winner.

    boulay said:

    Interestingly, the Mail seems to have already decided that it likes the look of Starmer and his wife. as a couple for public events.

    Shades of the Blair era.

    No shades of the Blair era, Lady Starmer is a good looking woman ripe for the photo spreads of the Daily Mail whilst Cherie was a better fit for radio.
    This is more in the mood music surrounding a couple, I would say.

    The Mail briefly enjoyed the Cool Britannia milieu around the Blairs, and today it has an enthusiastic article about "Lady Vic" Starmer which seems similarly enamoured of the people around her, as much as her.
    It’s tricky because people will be saying “use Lady S for publicity and soft power” but it doesn’t take into account that she frankly probably doesn’t want to be a political or diplomatic prop. Much like Mrs Rishi, she would clearly be a great ambassador for the UK, especially with the commonwealth and global south - and no I’m not being a racist but pointing out that her background would clearly change perceptions of the UK with a lot of the world - but I guess she really didn’t want to because both women are their own selves and not ornaments or pawns.

    However I think the Starmers do have that freshness and telegenic appeal which will be helpful. One of the benefits of leaving the office early on a Friday and getting a good sleep I guess.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494

    IanB2 said:

    I find it astonishing a tenth of Reform voters would have voted Lib Dem. Presumably this was the 'get rid of Tory' choice in their area
    That’s exactly what I said both last night and this morning.

    If Reform disappears, just under a third of them would have stayed in their armchair, just over a third would have backed the Tories, and exactly the same just over a third would have voted Labour, LibDem or Green. Given the efficiency of tactical voting, there’s next to nothing there for the Tories.

    The idea that you can add Ref + Con and suddenly the blues get all their seats back is for the birds. The right wasn’t split. The government was crap.
    Be interesting to know what the second preferences of Labour voters were. That might be key to the 2029 election.
    We already know that a quarter of them didn’t even have Labour as their first preference!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Anecdata point from last night.

    Just picking up our ballots in the polling station. A guy comes in behind us, 50ish, had no polling card, didn’t know whether he was registered or not, gave his name and address and was told he needed to be at the other polling station in our village,

    I’d bet the lot that he was a RefUK voter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753

    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    41m
    Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1809269957663789275

    Anybody would think the Tories over the past 14 years had just been rich white men....checks notes....The problem with the Tories wasn't diversity, it was too many where a bit shit.

    The real problem the Tories have now is a lot of the better ones have stepped down or lost their seat. A bit like Labour 2010, they lost a lot of their better MPs.
    They’ll be fine with Chope and Swayne. No white coats flapping there, no sirreee.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Yes, but you're what is techinically known, to professional neuroscientists, as a "fucking tragic old weirdo" - so with all due respect that slightly detracts froim your argument

    Listening to what you say is like paying attention to the guy who shouts loudly, on his own, at the front of the bus, every time a bird goes by
    Nice bit of psychological projection there @Leon. How are you getting on with Dale Carnegie's book by the way. Which bit do you find the hardest; the influencing bit or the making friends?
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Oh well. His housemaster called him one when he was a teenager. That settles it then.

    Presumably you are appalled that the Pabloist Trotskyist Starmer is prime minister. After all he was editor of an extremist left wing magazine for the Pabloists in younger days and went to a strength Through Joy Camp in Communist Czecholslovskia as a youth, so he must be a dangerous commie traitor that should be called out on it every day because no one ever moderates when they grow up?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,673

    Sean_F said:

    I think the dividing line between fash and non-fash is violence vs a willingness to accept the rules of democracy.

    Hmmm. I did look into it a while ago. I came up with my own definition:

    Order, discipline, obedience, regimentation, loyalty to one’s group, the virtue of strength and critically, investing in an all powerful leader who has the will to revitalise the social fabric of the nation.

    I think Reform are some way off. To start with they need to get themselves a uniform.
    I posted Nigel Farage in Blackshorts a few days ago.

    All he needs now is a raised arm, and a shout of "Hi de Hi".
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,273

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    Alex chalk surely before Penny if he wants it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    He clearly lacked political nous but isn`t what what Isaac Levido and others supposed to be good at? Potentially lots of seats lost with own goals.
    How many tory ex-mps who lapped up and whooped over the arrival of GB News and the BBC's endless Farage exposure are now having regrets?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    The jostling for his seat is going to be immense!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,439

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Oh well. His housemaster called him one when he was a teenager. That settles it then.

    Presumably you are appalled that the Pabloist Trotskyist Starmer is prime minister. After all he was editor of an extremist left wing magazine for the Pabloists in younger days and went to a strength Through Joy Camp in Communist Czecholslovskia as a youth, so he must be a dangerous commie traitor that should be called out on it every day because no one ever moderates when they grow up?
    Can this be true? A housemaster describing a pupil as fascist? Really?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,273

    Anecdata point from last night.

    Just picking up our ballots in the polling station. A guy comes in behind us, 50ish, had no polling card, didn’t know whether he was registered or not, gave his name and address and was told he needed to be at the other polling station in our village,

    I’d bet the lot that he was a RefUK voter.

    That’s how Reform will be crushed. No doubt about it, patronise and be snobbish about them. Can’t fail.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    No.

    He needed to be called out on it, every day, for the past four weeks. Now he has a seat in Westminster.
    Indeed, and that is a tragedy for our country.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,439
    edited July 5
    --
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    boulay said:

    Anecdata point from last night.

    Just picking up our ballots in the polling station. A guy comes in behind us, 50ish, had no polling card, didn’t know whether he was registered or not, gave his name and address and was told he needed to be at the other polling station in our village,

    I’d bet the lot that he was a RefUK voter.

    That’s how Reform will be crushed. No doubt about it, patronise and be snobbish about them. Can’t fail.
    I’m not being snobbish. Just reporting what I saw. YOUR party indulged them. That was foolish. That’s why you’ve been so utterly fucked over.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Oh well. His housemaster called him one when he was a teenager. That settles it then.

    Presumably you are appalled that the Pabloist Trotskyist Starmer is prime minister. After all he was editor of an extremist left wing magazine for the Pabloists in younger days and went to a strength Through Joy Camp in Communist Czecholslovskia as a youth, so he must be a dangerous commie traitor that should be called out on it every day because no one ever moderates when they grow up?
    Can this be true? A housemaster describing a pupil as fascist? Really?
    Whether he was condemining him or was a Spode type praising him I have no idea.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,520

    Sean_F said:

    I think the dividing line between fash and non-fash is violence vs a willingness to accept the rules of democracy.

    Hmmm. I did look into it a while ago. I came up with my own definition:

    Order, discipline, obedience, regimentation, loyalty to one’s group, the virtue of strength and critically, investing in an all powerful leader who has the will to revitalise the social fabric of the nation.

    I think Reform are some way off. To start with they need to get themselves a uniform.
    Nigel Farage in footer bags. Here's where he makes his bloomer.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Leon said:

    Far from being a Fascist, Farage is just a classic old school rightwing Tory, with a populist streak, a libertarian bent, and a fair bit of charisma

    It's just that almost everyone to the left of this has the analytical skills of a toddler (cf @Nigel_Foremain and @BartholomewRoberts, and a toddler possessed of a one word vocabulary: FASCIST!!!!

    Na, because you, and some like you, are of his ilk, right wing, narcissistic and probably slightly insane. The natural heirs to Oswald Mosely
    Mosley
  • LeonLeon Posts: 52,701

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Yes, but you're what is techinically known, to professional neuroscientists, as a "fucking tragic old weirdo" - so with all due respect that slightly detracts froim your argument

    Listening to what you say is like paying attention to the guy who shouts loudly, on his own, at the front of the bus, every time a bird goes by
    Nice bit of psychological projection there @Leon. How are you getting on with Dale Carnegie's book by the way. Which bit do you find the hardest; the influencing bit or the making friends?
    Well, in terms of influencing people, my regular articles in the Knapper's Gazette are read by hundreds of thousands of people, and in terms of friends I am setting off tomorrow to go and stay in a famously beautiful house in Provence loaned to me by a friend, because he's my friend

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,416

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    There was absolutely no Conservative hostility towards Farage and the Putinistas throughout the campaign. Zahawi was on C4 last night, and really didn't understand that the Faragistas are not his friends. He was very hostile to Labour but acquiesced to Reform.

    I think the Conservative campaign worked very well in suppressing the Labour vote, particularly the super majority scare tactic, but no attempt to discredit the fash-lite Farage party. Perhaps they had an eye on Farage joining them. I don't know?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,673
    Leon said:

    Great result for Labour in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

    Complete SNP Implosion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_h-Eileanan_an_Iar_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Still taking the piss, I see, with their absurdly small number of constituents. Gotta love the Western Isles!

    2024 really is the death of Scottish independence, for a generation. Thankfully
    Swinney was back on it in about 10 minutes.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Just think of all the trouble the Tories could have saved themselves if they had asked the King to confer the title of "Lord Farage of Sidcup" on Farage a year ago.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    He clearly lacked political nous but isn`t what what Isaac Levido and others supposed to be good at? Potentially lots of seats lost with own goals.
    How many tory ex-mps who lapped up and whooped over the arrival of GB News and the BBC's endless Farage exposure are now having regrets?
    If Channel 4 hadn`t done an expose` of the Clacton activists, Con would have been sub 100 I think.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,273
    Omnium said:

    boulay said:

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    Rishi shortly resigns as an MP.

    Penny Mordaunt gets the call for the by-election. Which she wins comfortably. And then the Party leadership.

    You heard it here first.
    Alex chalk surely before Penny if he wants it?
    - deleted - suspect I commented without the context.
    Ha - just had to delete my bloody reply.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,141

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

    There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
    Do you believe Reform are fascists?
    It depends on whether you view a Fascist as a party that also uses violent paramilitaries as well as the ballot box or if you use it as a code word for "Ghastly lower order Oiks who don't know their place
    Total bollocks. Farage is a fascist and he is, how can I break it to you, not an oik. He is a privately educated ex-city trader. Modern fascists or neo-fascists are politicians who use populist politics of division. Maybe you are someone who doesn't believe election-denying would be dictator Trump, an ally of Farage, is not a fascist. He is most certainly is. Maybe you might describe Putin as someone to be admired though he is a "bad man" (why not say naughty boy?) rather than a fascist murderous despot.

    Farage was described by his housemaster as a fascist when he was a young man. He was described as a racist by the founder of UKIP. He indulges in division and stirs hatred. He is an apologist for Putin and Trump. He is a fucking fascist and is scum like all other fascists. He needs to be called out as such.
    Oh well. His housemaster called him one when he was a teenager. That settles it then.

    Presumably you are appalled that the Pabloist Trotskyist Starmer is prime minister. After all he was editor of an extremist left wing magazine for the Pabloists in younger days and went to a strength Through Joy Camp in Communist Czecholslovskia as a youth, so he must be a dangerous commie traitor that should be called out on it every day because no one ever moderates when they grow up?
    A ludicrous response. I am no fan of Kier-Corbyn-would-be-a-great-PM anyway, so your whataboutery is an absolute fail. People do sometimes have extreme views when they are kids. Obviously you are ok with someone being a putin apologist, so I guess you must be one too
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    He clearly lacked political nous but isn`t what what Isaac Levido and others supposed to be good at? Potentially lots of seats lost with own goals.
    How many tory ex-mps who lapped up and whooped over the arrival of GB News and the BBC's endless Farage exposure are now having regrets?
    That been said the Tories are really the architects of their own downfall. Incompetence, combined with right wing rherotic, left wing action on things like immigration. Its a free hit and one (from my limited viewing of GB News) they are happy to tee up.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 387
    It'll be interesting to see what these Gaza independents get up to in parliament.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we get one or more by-elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534

    Just think of all the trouble the Tories could have saved themselves if they had asked the King to confer the title of "Lord Farage of Sidcup" on Farage a year ago.

    Wouldn't have made a bit of difference. His long term ambition is not to be in the Lords.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,349

    SMukesh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
    Just think, if the Tories had taken the gloves off and attacked Reform, instead of pretending they were fellow travellers, how many more seats would they have won?
    Absolutely. Anyone with the political brain of a bird would have realised that. Except the recently ex-PM it seems. They even gave him opportunity to fight back with Farage attacking his background.
    You do have to ask: what the FUCK were they thinking?
    Well indeed. Exactly my point. Of course that analytical political genius known as @Leon would like the Tories to cosy up to them and doesn't agree. The Tories need to hit them hard, but they need an articulate leader who has the balls to do it. Not sure who that would be.
    It's not just the singer, it's the lack of a song.

    How do you bash Farage without driving even more on the right into his hands? After all there are people who would like nothing better than to have an excuse to flounce off to the Blackshorts.

    The Conservatives can't bash him for being phoney, though he is. Not for being a fantasist, though he is. Not for promising that people can have what they want with no downside. All those passes were sold long ago.

This discussion has been closed.