I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
If the Tories pick Tugendhat, Atkins or Hunt then yes I can see them leaking further to Reform (though I can't see Tory members voting for any of those 3). However if they pick Braverman, Badenoch or Patel or Jenrick as next leader they might equally lose some centrist voters Rishi held to Starmer Labour or the LDs.
Which is why Barclay or Cleverly would be my preferred picks as best able to appeal to both wings of the party. Above all the party needs a unifier leader and both of them were loyal to Boris and loyal to Rishi
Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up
Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
Didn't the government release the land?
No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.
Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.
And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
The solution for Heathrow is to plan to close it and use the area for housing as the Transport Infrastucture is there. And then build a new Heathrow somewhere in North Kent connecting it to HS1..
I have an idea. Shall we spend a few tens of millions exploring the possibility of a an airport in the Thames Estuary?
On the previous thread, I asked if 13 parties was a record. Almost 14, of course, plus a small party sized bloc of like-minded independents.
AlsoLei suggested 1945-50 reached 15 parties, but I don't see how unless we include the non-party candidates retrospectively classified under different Independent etiquette by, IIRC, F.W.S. Craig.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
Tactical vote unwind = gains from a standing start
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
It is already clear that as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top, you just have to ignore all the mansplaining.
Thanks for mansplaining how women can get to the top by ignoring mansplaining. I’m sure they will be grateful for that help.
Just going to jump in here to offer a clear explanation of “mansplaining” for any women on here who are not sure.
I would say “DM me” but first you might need me to help you with that.
Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.
Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."
3 Members of the Cabinet have previous Cabinet experience, not surprising given how long it as been.
The oldest by far and with the most Cabinet experience is Hilary Benn. The Ken Clarke of the first part of this government?
It's interesting how young and high flying Cooper and Miliband were, as they are only in their mid 50s now.
It is I think a more experienced Cabinet in terms of parliamentary service than we have had for a long time - Keir Startmer is one of the least experienced, and there are quite a few from the pre 2000s.
I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
Yes but the one UUP MP? Are they taking the Tory whip like they used to in old days with Trimble? Might help them a bit in NI to say they are the only ones (if TUV don’t) to have that sort of position.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
This isn't going to be popular on PB, but can we all step back and applaud Farage
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
I rate Baker, and this adds to that. He's one of the good ones and I'm sad he's out.
One thing I would pick him up on though. Austerity was a choice back in 2010, especially with interest rates as low as they were. It's less of a choice now, because of both interest rates and post-covid debt levels. I don't envy Reeves.
I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
Yes but the one UUP MP? Are they taking the Tory whip like they used to in old days with Trimble? Might help them a bit in NI to say they are the only ones (if TUV don’t) to have that sort of position.
UUP are basically Cameroon Tories now, DUP ERG Tories and TUV Reform
I should thank @Quincel for all the excellent betting tips I did absolutely nothing with.
You are too kind. For what it's worth I ended up reinvesting most of my (actually quite modest) winnings on trading the news from the Basildon South recount so haven't left my computer or slept since 10pm last night. I don't have anything on Inverness so, finally, I'm going to bed!
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Maybe the Conservative MP’s will simply beg Nigel to lead them.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
I sense that Wes was prepared to be brave, and sitting in an East London seat that was never going to be lost to the opposition, and with his boundless self-confidence in his own presentational skills and willingness to take a few flesh wounds for his party, you could argue that he was the ideal person for the job.
It will be interesting to see whether losing most of his Muslim vote and coming within a few hundred votes of being decapitated from his political dream changes him at all. Positively, it might bring a bit of humility, but it might also knock the edge off his willingness to be so bold and combative. At the least, he won’t be able to take what should be a comfortable safe seat, just forty minutes tube ride from Westminster, for granted.
Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up
Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
Didn't the government release the land?
No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.
Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.
And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
The solution for Heathrow is to plan to close it and use the area for housing as the Transport Infrastucture is there. And then build a new Heathrow somewhere in North Kent connecting it to HS1..
I have an idea. Shall we spend a few tens of millions exploring the possibility of a an airport in the Thames Estuary?
Nah Put it at Didcot. That lot all vote Liberal now so you can ignore their nimbyish whining, no bird issues like the Thames Estuary and the rail infrratructure to divert the Heathrow Express from Paddington exist
Suitable plans alreadg exist that can be dusted off.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
In terms of votes though the Tories lost more votes to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Here's a thought. Reform are not a party but a limited company. Perhaps the Tories could buy them out.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Maybe the Conservative MP’s will simply beg Nigel to lead them.
A couple of them might. If they'd had an even worse night a lot more would have.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
It is already clear that as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top, you just have to ignore all the mansplaining.
Thanks for mansplaining how women can get to the top by ignoring mansplaining. I’m sure they will be grateful for that help.
This isn't going to be popular on PB, but can we all step back and applaud Farage
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
I wonder how many seats the media scandals in the last week lost him. I wouldn't be surprised if it increased thr numbers who sat on their hands that might have gone and voted for him at least as a protest vote
I hope Liz Kendall isn't too ideological to deal with the DWP.
Her ultra-Blairite record doesn't necessarily inspire confidence that she will force the release of the *seven* Dwp internal investigations suppressed by Therese Coffey, on the absolute expensive failure of benefir sanctions and associated policies.They have actually cost the DWP more money, not less, while simultaneously adding to mental health costs.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
Fair, but what experience would be suitable for such a task? I'm not sure there is any. With politicians and leading departments I don't think experience is key, its ability, judgement, and luck.
This isn't going to be popular on PB, but can we all step back and applaud Farage
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
I largely agree with this, except that I think you misconstrue the nature of Farage's political ambitions. He is fundamentally a disruptor - to take one example look at the way Reform is incorporated as a not-party. That isn't the actions of someone seeking to answer yes to the question in your last paragraph.
I believe (but am not at all sure) that he will put most of his eggs into merging with or returning to the Conservative party. I suspect Reform itself will disappear quite quickly as UKIP has, even if Farage and his politics become more prominent.
Just the Scots result to come now, then. Not too surprised at the Basildon/Thurrock result. If ever an area and its people have been poorly treated ....... Eldest grandson teaches in the area....
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
That is most of the cabinet. Has any of them for instance every setup / run a business?
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Brilliant diagnosis, Ignore the millions and millions of votes on the right and instead bicker with the Lib Dems over a few rich seats in southwest London. A sure and certain path to power in 2028
I see Lab managed to get less votes than in 2019. That wwould have been available at some enormous price a few weeks ago
Everyone got less votes. Turnout down across the board.
BUT there were (I surmise) significant differentials re: turnout between different groups of voters. In particular the VERY Shy Tory Syndrome, but also demographic & other differences.
What do you think, based on your experiences up on the far edge of creation in ANME?
Can imagine that up there, despite the dynamics of the race, there were some formerly SNP and Tory who went fishing (or psephological equivalent) instead of voting?
I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
Yes but the one UUP MP? Are they taking the Tory whip like they used to in old days with Trimble? Might help them a bit in NI to say they are the only ones (if TUV don’t) to have that sort of position.
UUP are basically Cameroon Tories now, DUP ERG Tories and TUV Reform
Yes but are they taking the whip like Trimble used to? I can’t find anything. Doesn’t change the price of fish right now, but interesting in the medium term.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
In terms of votes though the Tories lost more votes to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
I am not sure that you can conclude that all Reform voters switched from Conservative. Fundamentally the conservatives need a proper leader who doesn't try to appease Farage (please excuse irony). They need to start hitting him hard. Expose him for what he is and take the risk in doing so. They have nothing to lose where they are now. A proper leader will look to kill off Reform and return them to the gutter fringes where they should be.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
That is most of the cabinet. Has any of them for instance every setup / run a business?
Nope. Most of them would struggle to run a bath. We have to hope that some of the people that are left over from the last Labour administration guide them.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
Fair, but what experience would be suitable for such a task? I'm not sure there is any. With politicians and leading departments I don't think experience is key, its ability, judgement, and luck.
What you can do is spend your time in opposition really understanding the brief. I think that was true of incoming in 1997 and 2010. Since 2015, quality has been very poor. We will see this time around.
I liked Camerons analysis that you shouldn't be chopping and changing as you will never understand the job. Where as Tony Blair got obsessed with reshuffling the pack.
I thought Sunak's and Starmer's speeches were good. A little bit of civility and mutual respect in our politics is long overdue.
Starmer's was obviously the more important and I really liked his emphasis on service. But I have still no idea what he is actually going to do.
I know the 'I respect my opponent and wish him well' stuff is a bit of a cliche, but as we know from other places in the (currently) democratic world, that is no longer always done, and I really appreciated the tone Sunak and Starmer took as part of the transfer of power. Respect for our opponents is an increasingly rare commodity.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
I find myself having a strange amount of respect for him. He is the antithesis of what I want in a politician because of the whole student politics by way of no business or serious work experience and he’s a golden boy of current Labour so he could easily take the path of least resistance with the NHs but he’s surprisingly made a pitch to be radical to fix it.
It’s something only a Labour gov could do but how many Labour politicians would be brave enough to threaten the sacred cow.
So all power to him despite his big fat smug face and I wish him every success for the sake of the country.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
Fair, but what experience would be suitable for such a task? I'm not sure there is any. With politicians and leading departments I don't think experience is key, its ability, judgement, and luck.
What you can do is spend your time in opposition really understanding the brief. I think that was true of incoming in 1997 and 2010. Since 2015, quality has been very poor. We will see this time around.
I liked Camerons analysis that you shouldn't be chopping and changing as you will never understand the job. Where as Tony got obsessed with reshuffling the pack.
Sure, understanding the brief will help, but I'd question if even that is much of a preparation for actually governing and being responsible for a department.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
Fair, but what experience would be suitable for such a task? I'm not sure there is any. With politicians and leading departments I don't think experience is key, its ability, judgement, and luck.
Great courage. He has to dismantle the NHS at least in part. Things that are free will always, in the long term, be abused. Look at poor old Mrs Fresh Air!
This isn't going to be popular on PB, but can we all step back and applaud Farage
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
I wonder how many seats the media scandals in the last week lost him. I wouldn't be surprised if it increased thr numbers who sat on their hands that might have gone and voted for him at least as a protest vote
Which in the long term will be of great benefit as only five "grown ups" got elected so he hasn't got the problem of short notice picked sundry nutters unexpectedly winning and then gobbing off and causing all manner of scandals.
They have five elected MPs and just ten councillors so can now build a professional party organisation over five years without having to semi permanentiy play whack a mole.
One interesting feature of this general election is that all the Lib Dem by-election winners held their seats (or its successor) - a first I think. A special mention of Helen Morgan- an astonishing result in North Shropshire.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
In terms of votes though the Tories lost more votes to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
I am not sure that you can conclude that all Reform voters switched from Conservative. Fundamentally the conservatives need a proper leader who doesn't try to appease Farage (please excuse irony). They need to start hitting him hard. Expose him for what he is and take the risk in doing so. They have nothing to lose where they are now. A proper leader will look to kill off Reform and return them to the gutter fringes where they should be.
You are an idiot. You don't kill off Reform by pointing at them and saying "Ugh, look at the fascists and all the fascists who supported them". That's 4 million voters you've just entirely alienated, and if they never win those voters, it means the Tories are doomed to permanent irrelevance or extinction. Also the centre, centre left and left is now occupied by the LDs, Labour, SNP, Plaid, Greens, there is no room there
The space is on the right. The way you take on Reform is by stealing the best of their policies, and do it blatantly, and install a leader who looks like he/she REALLY means to enact that manifesto
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
I find myself having a strange amount of respect for him. He is the antithesis of what I want in a politician because of the whole student politics by way of no business or serious work experience and he’s a golden boy of current Labour so he could easily take the path of least resistance with the NHs but he’s surprisingly made a pitch to be radical to fix it.
It’s something only a Labour gov could do but how many Labour politicians would be brave enough to threaten the sacred cow.
So all power to him despite his big fat smug face and I wish him every success for the sake of the country.
Yes, student politicians deserve the scorn they get, but Streeting has made some very interesting comments, and if he follows through in that vein it will be even more interesting.
This isn't going to be popular on PB, but can we all step back and applaud Farage
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
As Nigel himself said 'Labour are not scared yet, but they will be by the time I've finished with them.' It's now crucial for Nigel that he destroys Sir Keir's Labour from within parliament. If he fails - and Sir Keir crushes him like an insect beneath his lawyerly shoe - then Nigel will look all piss and wind and his supporters may skulk off disappointed.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
I think you will find that the three Tory women PMs for some inexplicable loony left reason do not count for anything.
Yarmouth Reform MP donating his salary as MP every month to local organisations
Loaded I assume?
Yes. He's flush.
I don’t see Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hint doing the same.
I know there's no reason why they should, but were I Rishi, I would have set aside a yearly budget to splash cash around worthy causes - why not?
I think some really rich MPs might even worry it looks patronising to be splashing the cash because it means so little to them, as if they were trying to buy votes, but many already probably give to charity and no reason they couldn't do so a lot more if they wanted, and of course most people as a whole just don't give money to others.
Both the Con and Lab candidates in Havant looked a bit shocked at the declaration as the Conservative majority was reduced from 21,792 to just 92, the Tory because he didn't expect to come so close to losing, and the Labour candidate who probably didn't expect to come anywhere near winning.
Yarmouth Reform MP donating his salary as MP every month to local organisations
Loaded I assume?
Yes. He's flush.
I don’t see Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hint doing the same.
I know there's no reason why they should, but were I Rishi, I would have set aside a yearly budget to splash cash around worthy causes - why not?
I believe that in his self published book available free on kindle Rishi will reveal the charitable donations he made whilst PM. He just didn’t want to brag whilst in office. The scales will fall from your eyes, lucky, and you will shed a tear for being so cruel about him but I will be there to pick you up and together we will sit on the sidelines and carp and criticise Labour.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Reform are pathetic nobodies, not the future.
Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
Heh. Next general election bets. Tory Gvt, Labour minority, and Lib/Lab are all 1000 on Betfair. That’s almost tempting as a way to extract decent cash in about two years.
Edit- hah, of course it’s still this time for now.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Brilliant diagnosis, Ignore the millions and millions of votes on the right and instead bicker with the Lib Dems over a few rich seats in southwest London. A sure and certain path to power in 2028
Well it is unless you are a swiveleyed nutjob far right tw*t such as yourself. And forgive me, if I need any analysis of my "analysis" I won't be coming to a minor novelist who writes travel articles. The laughable thing is that you, who along with your other childish and downright loony obsessions, bang on about "woke" then say you are going to vote for a party led by the most "woke" leader we have ever had in this country. You don't analyse anything. You spin around like a demented weathervane, desperately trying to point in the direction that you think serves your unscientific, contrarian attention seeking persona the most response from perfect strangers on a political blob. Sorry if that is harsh, but it is the truth.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Reform are pathetic nobodies, not the future.
Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
I don't think they are the future, but I think managing to win multiple seats is significantly more notable than managing to get one. Random nutters can occasionally win one.
I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
Yes but the one UUP MP? Are they taking the Tory whip like they used to in old days with Trimble? Might help them a bit in NI to say they are the only ones (if TUV don’t) to have that sort of position.
UUP are basically Cameroon Tories now, DUP ERG Tories and TUV Reform
Yes but are they taking the whip like Trimble used to? I can’t find anything. Doesn’t change the price of fish right now, but interesting in the medium term.
The UCUNF alliance from 2009-2011 is long dead. Their only MP at the time, Sylvia Hermon, resigned from the UUP rather than take the Tory whip in 2009. And the matter didn't arise when Danny Kinahan won South Antrim in 2015.
Current UUP leader Doug Beattie went to the last Tory conference, but that was the first one the UUP were at for a while - the previous 4(?) UUP leaders were against it. The new South Antrim MP, Robin Swann, was one of those leaders so I don't see him changing his mind.
Maybe if Col Tim Collins had won in North Down, things might be different - but he came a poor third after the Ind Unionist and Alliance.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
I find myself having a strange amount of respect for him. He is the antithesis of what I want in a politician because of the whole student politics by way of no business or serious work experience and he’s a golden boy of current Labour so he could easily take the path of least resistance with the NHs but he’s surprisingly made a pitch to be radical to fix it.
It’s something only a Labour gov could do but how many Labour politicians would be brave enough to threaten the sacred cow.
So all power to him despite his big fat smug face and I wish him every success for the sake of the country.
Yes, student politicians deserve the scorn they get, but Streeting has made some very interesting comments, and if he follows through in that vein it will be even more interesting.
Absolutely. I'm extremely relieved he didn't join the list of victims to single issue Gaza imbeciles. Who at least will get a nasty shock once that first bundle of casework hits their desks and they discover that the job involves more than intimidating women and shouting about the Middle East
This isn't going to be popular on PB, but can we all step back and applaud Farage
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
As Nigel himself said 'Labour are not scared yet, but they will be by the time I've finished with them.' It's now crucial for Nigel that he destroys Sir Keir's Labour from within parliament. If he fails - and Sir Keir crushes him like an insect beneath his lawyerly shoe - then Nigel will look all piss and wind and his supporters may skulk off disappointed.
Yes, it could easily go that way. Farage gets ignored, he blusters to no effect, Reform fizzles out. Perfectly possible
But Farage has an amazing track record. He's probably been the canniest politician in Britain for the last 20-30 years. Only Alex Salmond compares, the difference is Farage WON his crucial referendum and Salmond lost his
But the Commons is a very different place to Strasbourg, and the hard graft of British politics is very different to short sharp campaigns on single subjects. He might struggle, or simply get bored. If Trump looks like winning he might be tempted to cross the pond
On the other hand he will now have plenty of money: £1m alone from HMG plus - I suspect - a lot from donors and Vladimir Pu-no I'm joking. Probably
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Brilliant diagnosis, Ignore the millions and millions of votes on the right and instead bicker with the Lib Dems over a few rich seats in southwest London. A sure and certain path to power in 2028
Well it is unless you are a swiveleyed nutjob far right tw*t such as yourself. And forgive me, if I need any analysis of my "analysis" I won't be coming to a minor novelist who writes travel articles. The laughable thing is that you, who along with your other childish and downright loony obsessions, bang on about "woke" then say you are going to vote for a party led by the most "woke" leader we have ever had in this country. You don't analyse anything. You spin around like a demented weathervane, desperately trying to point in the direction that you think serves your unscientific, contrarian attention seeking persona the most response from perfect strangers on a political blob. Sorry if that is harsh, but it is the truth.
It's OK, your comment wasn't harsh, just immensely tedious and badly written, so you're fine
My take on the last 24 hours is I am greatly relieved that the conservative administration is over and the icing on the cake was the electorate showing Truss the red card, along with JRM and others
I am pleased Sunak called the election, notwithstanding that the reasons are not apparent though will no doubt be revealed in due course and to be fair he gave a gracious resignation speech in Downing Street
Keir Starmer is 'king of the castle' for at least 5 years, health and events allowing, and whilst he is boring I genuinely hope he can make a difference and certainly I am very willing to give him a generous honeymoon period whilst he puts in place his plans which will not really have any weight until Reeves delivers her autumn statement in October
I am also determined to ignore any more polls, which need a period of reflection, nor am I even thinking into the future on how Starmer ensures the 10 year term he wants
Re Reform my wife was surprised to receive a what's app message from her niece's son in Scotland (mid 20s) on how he and his friends voted 'Reform' there and they are very committed to the Reform movement.
Actually one of our other relatives in his 40s expressed the same sentiments, even referring to the movement across Europe with some approval
These may well be worrying developments especially if a young cohort is turning to Reform and the right
Finally thanks to everyone who contributed throughout the night with excellent 'repartee' and information that far surpassed the media plus thanks to those responsible for this forum and congratulations to all those who improved their bank balance
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Brilliant diagnosis, Ignore the millions and millions of votes on the right and instead bicker with the Lib Dems over a few rich seats in southwest London. A sure and certain path to power in 2028
Well it is unless you are a swiveleyed nutjob far right tw*t such as yourself. And forgive me, if I need any analysis of my "analysis" I won't be coming to a minor novelist who writes travel articles. The laughable thing is that you, who along with your other childish and downright loony obsessions, bang on about "woke" then say you are going to vote for a party led by the most "woke" leader we have ever had in this country. You don't analyse anything. You spin around like a demented weathervane, desperately trying to point in the direction that you think serves your unscientific, contrarian attention seeking persona the most response from perfect strangers on a political blob. Sorry if that is harsh, but it is the truth.
It's OK, your comment wasn't harsh, just immensely tedious and badly written, so you're fine
No he's not, from that description he's after my brand.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He's not my darjeeling
I think he is a complete lightweight who has done nothing in life other than be a politician and a student union activist. That said, the point about the NHS is well made. Whether someone with so little experience can deal with something so complex I think might be amusing to watch.
I find myself having a strange amount of respect for him. He is the antithesis of what I want in a politician because of the whole student politics by way of no business or serious work experience and he’s a golden boy of current Labour so he could easily take the path of least resistance with the NHs but he’s surprisingly made a pitch to be radical to fix it.
It’s something only a Labour gov could do but how many Labour politicians would be brave enough to threaten the sacred cow.
So all power to him despite his big fat smug face and I wish him every success for the sake of the country.
Yes, student politicians deserve the scorn they get, but Streeting has made some very interesting comments, and if he follows through in that vein it will be even more interesting.
Absolutely. I'm extremely relieved he didn't join the list of victims to single issue Gaza imbeciles. Who at least will get a nasty shock once that first bundle of casework hits their desks and they discover that the job involves more than intimidating women and shouting about the Middle East
They shall have their chance to prove themselves, but if they do an O'Mara because they only care about one issue, they will not last.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Reform are pathetic nobodies, not the future.
Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
5 not 4. And the first time any new party (not in a formal electoral pact with an existing party) has broken through and done that since Kier Hardy and a Colleague did it with Labour in the 1900 election.
Not to mention getting 3rd place in the popular vote by a half million margin with almost half as many votes as the winning party and two thirds of the votes of the second placed party.
It is an astonishing achievement under first past the post and you difmiss it at your peril.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
In terms of votes though the Tories lost more votes to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
I am not sure that you can conclude that all Reform voters switched from Conservative. Fundamentally the conservatives need a proper leader who doesn't try to appease Farage (please excuse irony). They need to start hitting him hard. Expose him for what he is and take the risk in doing so. They have nothing to lose where they are now. A proper leader will look to kill off Reform and return them to the gutter fringes where they should be.
You are an idiot. You don't kill off Reform by pointing at them and saying "Ugh, look at the fascists and all the fascists who supported them". That's 4 million voters you've just entirely alienated, and if they never win those voters, it means the Tories are doomed to permanent irrelevance or extinction. Also the centre, centre left and left is now occupied by the LDs, Labour, SNP, Plaid, Greens, there is no room there
The space is on the right. The way you take on Reform is by stealing the best of their policies, and do it blatantly, and install a leader who looks like he/she REALLY means to enact that manifesto
I assume you mean one without a brown skin. And no, not an idiot. Political idiots are right wing turds who try to appeal to the lowest common denominator of human decency; pathetic small minded individuals who scribble pointless articles about travel, knowing full well their mind numbingly tedious little efforts will soon be replaced by someone combining ChatGPT with Google Maps and are angry with the world because most people do not share the sad negative backward looking views that provide them masturbatory fantasies about white English supremacy.
I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
Yes but the one UUP MP? Are they taking the Tory whip like they used to in old days with Trimble? Might help them a bit in NI to say they are the only ones (if TUV don’t) to have that sort of position.
UUP are basically Cameroon Tories now, DUP ERG Tories and TUV Reform
There's still an 'old-school farmer' element within the UUP, who would be much closer to a traditional 'knight of the shires' form of Toryism.
But, yes, most of the party today are fishing in the same waters as the previous generation of the Alliance party (the Alderdices et al). It's a crowded field, and Robin Swann did very well to gain South Antrim.
I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
No - Allister is TUV, and is theoretically in an alliance with Refuk.
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
Yes but the one UUP MP? Are they taking the Tory whip like they used to in old days with Trimble? Might help them a bit in NI to say they are the only ones (if TUV don’t) to have that sort of position.
UUP are basically Cameroon Tories now, DUP ERG Tories and TUV Reform
Yes but are they taking the whip like Trimble used to? I can’t find anything. Doesn’t change the price of fish right now, but interesting in the medium term.
The UCUNF alliance from 2009-2011 is long dead. Their only MP at the time, Sylvia Hermon, resigned from the UUP rather than take the Tory whip in 2009. And the matter didn't arise when Danny Kinahan won South Antrim in 2015.
Current UUP leader Doug Beattie went to the last Tory conference, but that was the first one the UUP were at for a while - the previous 4(?) UUP leaders were against it. The new South Antrim MP, Robin Swann, was one of those leaders so I don't see him changing his mind.
Maybe if Col Tim Collins had won in North Down, things might be different - but he came a poor third after the Ind Unionist and Alliance.
This was a fairly good election for the UUP. They’re within striking distance of taking East Antrim, and a strong third in Lagan Valley. If they come back into contention, they could take votes from Alliance, as the DUP never could.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Do you believe Reform are fascists?
Pretty close. I am also convinced the hecklers he swatted away with some well rehearsed lines this afternoon were ringers. Isn't that straight out of the fash-lite playbook?
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Reform are pathetic nobodies, not the future.
Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
Where to even begin with this level of idiocy?
UKIP's good showing in 2015 proved that Farage is a brilliant campaigner with a one issue party - and with that 2015 vote, by the way, he terrified the Tories into offering the referendum the following year and then Farage went and won it. Thus, Brexit (which you voted for). Without Farage, no Brexit. That makes him potentially the most significant British politician of the 21st century (and maybe the best?)
He's now done it again, but - even more impressively - without that single burning issue but with a proper party with a range of poliicies. You may think the policies are insane but then Ed Davey just got 70 seats by lighting his bottom on fire
Fools like you will continue to underestimate Farage; he surely gains from that
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
In terms of votes though the Tories lost more votes to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
I am not sure that you can conclude that all Reform voters switched from Conservative. Fundamentally the conservatives need a proper leader who doesn't try to appease Farage (please excuse irony). They need to start hitting him hard. Expose him for what he is and take the risk in doing so. They have nothing to lose where they are now. A proper leader will look to kill off Reform and return them to the gutter fringes where they should be.
You are an idiot. You don't kill off Reform by pointing at them and saying "Ugh, look at the fascists and all the fascists who supported them". That's 4 million voters you've just entirely alienated, and if they never win those voters, it means the Tories are doomed to permanent irrelevance or extinction. Also the centre, centre left and left is now occupied by the LDs, Labour, SNP, Plaid, Greens, there is no room there
The space is on the right. The way you take on Reform is by stealing the best of their policies, and do it blatantly, and install a leader who looks like he/she REALLY means to enact that manifesto
I assume you mean one without a brown skin. And no, not an idiot. Political idiots are right wing turds who try to appeal to the lowest common denominator of human decency; pathetic small minded individuals who scribble pointless articles about travel, knowing full well their mind numbingly tedious little efforts will soon be replaced by someone combining ChatGPT with Google Maps and are angry with the world because most people do not share the sad negative backward looking views that provide them masturbatory fantasies about white English supremacy.
Class discrimination against ignorant oiks who don't know their place is fine and dandy though?
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
In terms of votes though the Tories lost more votes to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
I am not sure that you can conclude that all Reform voters switched from Conservative. Fundamentally the conservatives need a proper leader who doesn't try to appease Farage (please excuse irony). They need to start hitting him hard. Expose him for what he is and take the risk in doing so. They have nothing to lose where they are now. A proper leader will look to kill off Reform and return them to the gutter fringes where they should be.
You are an idiot. You don't kill off Reform by pointing at them and saying "Ugh, look at the fascists and all the fascists who supported them". That's 4 million voters you've just entirely alienated, and if they never win those voters, it means the Tories are doomed to permanent irrelevance or extinction. Also the centre, centre left and left is now occupied by the LDs, Labour, SNP, Plaid, Greens, there is no room there
The space is on the right. The way you take on Reform is by stealing the best of their policies, and do it blatantly, and install a leader who looks like he/she REALLY means to enact that manifesto
I assume you mean one without a brown skin. And no, not an idiot. Political idiots are right wing turds who try to appeal to the lowest common denominator of human decency; pathetic small minded individuals who scribble pointless articles about travel, knowing full well their mind numbingly tedious little efforts will soon be replaced by someone combining ChatGPT with Google Maps and are angry with the world because most people do not share the sad negative backward looking views that provide them masturbatory fantasies about white English supremacy.
Have you considered having, perhaps, a bit of a lie down?
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Here's a thought. Reform are not a party but a limited company. Perhaps the Tories could buy them out.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Brilliant diagnosis, Ignore the millions and millions of votes on the right and instead bicker with the Lib Dems over a few rich seats in southwest London. A sure and certain path to power in 2028
For all of @Scott_P 's euphoria this election has probably saved Brexit for good.
SKS is in a weak position. Any move to Rejoin and he'd be eviscerated.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
There should be no deals with fascists. The Tories lost far more seats to LDs. It is the middle ground that they have vacated that they need to regain. Lurching further to the right is plain stupid are well as being morally repugnant. I hope the Conservative Party returns to be a pragmatic party of the centre right and leaves the far right to gutter politicians like Putin apologist Farage.
Brilliant diagnosis, Ignore the millions and millions of votes on the right and instead bicker with the Lib Dems over a few rich seats in southwest London. A sure and certain path to power in 2028
Well it is unless you are a swiveleyed nutjob far right tw*t such as yourself. And forgive me, if I need any analysis of my "analysis" I won't be coming to a minor novelist who writes travel articles. The laughable thing is that you, who along with your other childish and downright loony obsessions, bang on about "woke" then say you are going to vote for a party led by the most "woke" leader we have ever had in this country. You don't analyse anything. You spin around like a demented weathervane, desperately trying to point in the direction that you think serves your unscientific, contrarian attention seeking persona the most response from perfect strangers on a political blob. Sorry if that is harsh, but it is the truth.
It's OK, your comment wasn't harsh, just immensely tedious and badly written, so you're fine
It was perfectly well written. Perhaps because it was a little rushed and had an element of "stream of consciousness" that might have lacked a little finesse. It could have been as rushed and poor as, say, some trashy airport novel by, say Sean Thomas, but I wouldn't think it stooped that low.
Good evening all. Have spent the day reading all the posts and threads posted since I went to bed at 5.30am. This site is a tremendous fount of knowledge, far better than the BBC, ITV or Sky. Thank you @TSE@rcs1000 and OGH. I am looking forward to reading @RochdalePioneers campaign memoirs. And thank you @Peter_the_Punter for the profitable Tewkesbury tip.
Comments
That alliance was negotiated when Tice was in charge, and Farage has since shafted them by endorsing Allister's rival.
Given that the TUV's entire shtick is based on not being swindled by English disloyalists, the chances of them actually taking the Refuk whip seem fairly slim to me.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/02/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel/
Which is why Barclay or Cleverly would be my preferred picks as best able to appeal to both wings of the party. Above all the party needs a unifier leader and both of them were loyal to Boris and loyal to Rishi
AlsoLei suggested 1945-50 reached 15 parties, but I don't see how unless we include the non-party candidates retrospectively classified under different Independent etiquette by, IIRC, F.W.S. Craig.
You can learn something from everyone in politicalbetting.
I would say “DM me” but first you might need me to help you with that.
The oldest by far and with the most Cabinet experience is Hilary Benn. The Ken Clarke of the first part of this government?
It's interesting how young and high flying Cooper and Miliband were, as they are only in their mid 50s now.
It is I think a more experienced Cabinet in terms of parliamentary service than we have had for a long time - Keir Startmer is one of the least experienced, and there are quite a few from the pre 2000s.
He made one momumental error: his comments on Ukraine, and that might have cost him 1m votes, who knows, but, nonetheless, he has otherwise played a blinder
He said he wasn't going to stand. Indeed I wonder if he signalled this before hand to try and coax Sunak into a stupidly timed election. But then a week into the election, to everyone's total surprise, he did a 180 and said Yes I am going to stand AND lead the party. This dramatic intervention made sure he got maximum attention at a crucial time, and got the media all excited: in him and Reform, and it banjaxed the Tories entirely
But he then had to win Clacton, or his political career was finished - after an 8th defeat it would have been curtains. Instead he went to Clacton A LOT, made sure the media came too, and the locals obviously enjoyed the circus because they kept showing up in large numbers to his events. Still, a lot of people predicted his failure there (some PBers on here, for instance "he will lose again and that's it, bye bye Nige")
At the same time he went around the country drawing more large crowds, north and south. Working hard, selling his party
In a few short weeks he made Reform credible and serious as an alternative, thereby, in the end, gaining 4 MILLION votes, which is really quite astonishing. AND he won in Clacton
His superb campaign is one of the more interesting subplots of this election. He really is a cunning operator - and a brilliant campaigner. And yet PBers still insist he is thick (@mwadams did it yesterday IIRC). He's in a different league to a maverick like Galloway or an eccentric like Corbyn. He's the real deal, and people always underestimate him
So now the big question: can he use those skills to turn Reform into a major party in seats as well as votes? It will be seriously hard. But with a roiled and enfeebled Torty party, and a Woke Labour government with a weak mandate (in votes) and non-charismatic leader, he will never get a better chance. Also, he's 60. So it's his last chance
One thing I would pick him up on though. Austerity was a choice back in 2010, especially with interest rates as low as they were. It's less of a choice now, because of both interest rates and post-covid debt levels. I don't envy Reeves.
i'm noticing a lot of orange belt that would be well-suited for some housing development with transport links into Oxford, Cambridge and London
https://x.com/matthewlesh/status/1809266254043070705
It will be interesting to see whether losing most of his Muslim vote and coming within a few hundred votes of being decapitated from his political dream changes him at all. Positively, it might bring a bit of humility, but it might also knock the edge off his willingness to be so bold and combative. At the least, he won’t be able to take what should be a comfortable safe seat, just forty minutes tube ride from Westminster, for granted.
Suitable plans alreadg exist that can be dusted off.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-oxfordshire-23642682
Though yes you need both sets of lost voters back for a Conservative majority again
If he wants to do that don't publicise it , just do it privately and don't claim gift aid.
Starmer's was obviously the more important and I really liked his emphasis on service. But I have still no idea what he is actually going to do.
Her ultra-Blairite record doesn't necessarily inspire confidence that she will force the release of the *seven* Dwp internal investigations suppressed by Therese Coffey, on the absolute expensive failure of benefir sanctions and associated policies.They have actually cost the DWP more money, not less, while simultaneously adding to mental health costs.
I believe (but am not at all sure) that he will put most of his eggs into merging with or returning to the Conservative party. I suspect Reform itself will disappear quite quickly as UKIP has, even if Farage and his politics become more prominent.
Not too surprised at the Basildon/Thurrock result. If ever an area and its people have been poorly treated .......
Eldest grandson teaches in the area....
What do you think, based on your experiences up on the far edge of creation in ANME?
Can imagine that up there, despite the dynamics of the race, there were some formerly SNP and Tory who went fishing (or psephological equivalent) instead of voting?
I liked Camerons analysis that you shouldn't be chopping and changing as you will never understand the job. Where as Tony Blair got obsessed with reshuffling the pack.
It’s something only a Labour gov could do but how many Labour politicians would be brave enough to threaten the sacred cow.
So all power to him despite his big fat smug face and I wish him every success for the sake of the country.
They have five elected MPs and just ten councillors so can now build a professional party organisation over five years without having to semi permanentiy play whack a mole.
The space is on the right. The way you take on Reform is by stealing the best of their policies, and do it blatantly, and install a leader who looks like he/she REALLY means to enact that manifesto
I know there's no reason why they should, but were I Rishi, I would have set aside a yearly budget to splash cash around worthy causes - why not?
Ensuring 100% of the money goes to the worthy cause you choose rather than giving it to the state to waste is a key incentive to donate.
https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/watch-alan-mak-pledges-to-continue-to-work-hard-after-narrow-election-victory-4692262?dicbo=v2-wOBgXUT
https://x.com/StefHarv4Havant/status/1809063863855288725
Contrast Reform yesterday with UKIP 2015. They gained 230k extra votes, not millions of extra votes, and 4 extra MPs.
Edit- hah, of course it’s still this time for now.
Current UUP leader Doug Beattie went to the last Tory conference, but that was the first one the UUP were at for a while - the previous 4(?) UUP leaders were against it. The new South Antrim MP, Robin Swann, was one of those leaders so I don't see him changing his mind.
Maybe if Col Tim Collins had won in North Down, things might be different - but he came a poor third after the Ind Unionist and Alliance.
But Farage has an amazing track record. He's probably been the canniest politician in Britain for the last 20-30 years. Only Alex Salmond compares, the difference is Farage WON his crucial referendum and Salmond lost his
But the Commons is a very different place to Strasbourg, and the hard graft of British politics is very different to short sharp campaigns on single subjects. He might struggle, or simply get bored. If Trump looks like winning he might be tempted to cross the pond
On the other hand he will now have plenty of money: £1m alone from HMG plus - I suspect - a lot from donors and Vladimir Pu-no I'm joking. Probably
If he uses that money in a clever way....
My take on the last 24 hours is I am greatly relieved that the conservative administration is over and the icing on the cake was the electorate showing Truss the red card, along with JRM and others
I am pleased Sunak called the election, notwithstanding that the reasons are not apparent though will no doubt be revealed in due course and to be fair he gave a gracious resignation speech in Downing Street
Keir Starmer is 'king of the castle' for at least 5 years, health and events allowing, and whilst he is boring I genuinely hope he can make a difference and certainly I am very willing to give him a generous honeymoon period whilst he puts in place his plans which will not really have any weight until Reeves delivers her autumn statement in October
I am also determined to ignore any more polls, which need a period of reflection, nor am I even thinking into the future on how Starmer ensures the 10 year term he wants
Re Reform my wife was surprised to receive a what's app message from her niece's son in Scotland (mid 20s) on how he and his friends voted 'Reform' there and they are very committed to the Reform movement.
Actually one of our other relatives in his 40s expressed the same sentiments, even referring to the movement across Europe with some approval
These may well be worrying developments especially if a young cohort is turning to Reform and the right
Finally thanks to everyone who contributed throughout the night with excellent 'repartee' and information that far surpassed the media plus thanks to those responsible for this forum and congratulations to all those who improved their bank balance
Only missing the faux humility.
Not to mention getting 3rd place in the popular vote by a half million margin with almost half as many votes as the winning party and two thirds of the votes of the second placed party.
It is an astonishing achievement under first past the post and you difmiss it at your peril.
But, yes, most of the party today are fishing in the same waters as the previous generation of the Alliance party (the Alderdices et al). It's a crowded field, and Robin Swann did very well to gain South Antrim.
UKIP's good showing in 2015 proved that Farage is a brilliant campaigner with a one issue party - and with that 2015 vote, by the way, he terrified the Tories into offering the referendum the following year and then Farage went and won it. Thus, Brexit (which you voted for). Without Farage, no Brexit. That makes him potentially the most significant British politician of the 21st century (and maybe the best?)
He's now done it again, but - even more impressively - without that single burning issue but with a proper party with a range of poliicies. You may think the policies are insane but then Ed Davey just got 70 seats by lighting his bottom on fire
Fools like you will continue to underestimate Farage; he surely gains from that
Thanks. Just picked up a few £ from BF.
SKS is in a weak position. Any move to Rejoin and he'd be eviscerated.