Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Some more election stats – politicalbetting.com

2456712

Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Another huge mistake the Dems have made is claiming “all the rumours about Biden being senile are right wing conspiracy theories”

    Just like they told us the lab leak was also a “racist conspiracy theory”

    And yet both of these things are true. They are thereby FUELLING the conspiracy theories
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    edited July 5
    Nunu5 said:

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
    Will HS2 to Leeds make a comeback - that route desperately needs improvements...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
    Some of the articles in the press the last couple of days are quite clear. The White House hasn't been protecting Biden, they have been hiding his problems, but they obviously couldn't do that during the debate, and without the teleprompters, recorded interviews, and aides giving him a nudge or a whipser in his ear, it has all blown up.

    I could just about see Biden continuing as President in such a fashion until inauguration of the next President, but I do not understand how anyone could think it right for him to run on the basis that he will serve all the way to January 2029. The Democrats are now taking US voters for fools.
    Yes. Exactly. And so they risk destroying the Democrat party AS WELL and all for a clearly demented President. It’s fucking bats

    Get rid of him ASAFP
    He had another couple of malfunctions yesterday. How is he going to be able to campaign?

    The conspiracy of silence by the media is the real scandal. They have known, they must have done, but so obsessed by what if, it will help Trump. So much for truth to power.

    The thing by covering it up, they probably made Trump more likely.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211
    Andy_JS said:

    Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.

    No - not Hunt either.

    I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Foxy said:

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    It will be quite funny when the investigation shows that these missing voters were down to the ID rules.
    We asked every polling station if they had had any issues. Every one said zero. Great! And then at the next polling station we get there with two people arguing with the staff about their lack of ID...
    At our local polling station there was a member of staff at the door checking if we had id before we got in. I asked him whether he noted down any details of anyone who was refused for lack of id. He said that the electoral commission will produce a report.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 5
    There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211

    Andy_JS said:

    Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.

    He .looks like a character from Balamory
    Miss Hoolie?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It could have been even worse for the SNP:

    Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency

    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
    SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
    Aberdeen North
    SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
    Dundee Central
    SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
    SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
    ----
    Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
    Aberdeen South
    SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.


    https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Andy_JS said:

    There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.

    Not for betting purposes, but we always get the confusion in reporting of UK vs GB figures in the media.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Leon said:

    Another huge mistake the Dems have made is claiming “all the rumours about Biden being senile are right wing conspiracy theories”

    Just like they told us the lab leak was also a “racist conspiracy theory”

    And yet both of these things are true. They are thereby FUELLING the conspiracy theories

    This was before the recent more obvious declining and so he now supports replacing him, but this former GOP nevertrumper was arguing for leaning into it previously, including in other ones suggesting being more open in admitting Biden was not as fresh as others claimed.

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,078

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    It's not that binary, and it needs to be a broad church.

    Competence, sleaze, behaviour and the cost of living crisis amount to most of the Conservative defeat, and failure on immigration on top.

    I'd also include a big slice of simply having been there for too many years. I believe that produces the internal party issues you cite, and it's hard to see how they could overcome it.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    It could have been even worse for the SNP:

    Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency

    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
    SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
    Aberdeen North
    SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
    Dundee Central
    SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
    SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
    ----
    Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
    Aberdeen South
    SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.


    https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?

    Bloody Ross.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    It could have been even worse for the SNP:

    Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency

    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
    SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
    Aberdeen North
    SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
    Dundee Central
    SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
    SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
    ----
    Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
    Aberdeen South
    SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.


    https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?

    You're missing the big picture.

    Last night's result was great for Scottish independence.

    Not sure how, but I saw some Nats on Twitter saying it was.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Eabhal said:

    The Right Hon. Yvette Cooper MP is now Secretary of State for the Home Department.

    Who was it who kept claiming/ramping she was in jeopardy of losing her seat?

    She ended up with 47.5% of the vote in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, compared with Reform 29.1% and Conservative 15.0%.

    Meaning YC got more votes that Ref + Con combined = 44.1%


    There was always going to be a Susan Hall moment

    Tbf, there were a number of weird broadcaster errors during the night. Bits of Suffolk going to the Greens and so on
    The "error" re: Yvette Cooper's alleged political demise, was NOT from a broadcaster IIRC.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    It could have been even worse for the SNP:

    Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency

    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
    SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
    Aberdeen North
    SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
    Dundee Central
    SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
    SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
    ----
    Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
    Aberdeen South
    SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.


    https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?

    For the top two maybe. The others, naah.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    The lib dems won seats off the tories in lots of seats where planning is a big issue, ie wealthy areas that are anti housebuilding, a phenomenon which began with the by election in 2021 with the Chesham and Amersham by election (a seat held again by the lib dems in 2024).

    "Local opposition to the HS2 rail line, which is being built through the constituency, and the government's planning reforms, which could see more homes being built in rural areas, were major factors in the poll."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

    The tories need to be the party of the NIMBY's if they want to win sets back in the south east.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Labour concede Basildon. Reform have 5
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.

    No - not Hunt either.

    I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
    Things won't be right till the membership is disenfranchised from the leadership election. I would sooner disembowel myself with a pair of nail clippers than research the point but I strongly suspect that this cannot happen without the approval of the membership. Houston we have a problem.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211
    edited July 5
    tlg86 said:

    I went to bed after Truss so missed this. Moment of the night for me - Baker has Balls and Osborne bang to rights:

    https://x.com/GMB/status/1809114873894228261

    Absolutely brilliant. He was ace last night, a top quality guy who will be sadly missed. Look up his interview on Nick Robinson's podcast.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.

    Is BBC, and others, counting the publicly-disclaimed rogue (or rather over-candid) Reform candidates?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    darkage said:

    The lib dems won seats off the tories in lots of seats where planning is a big issue, ie wealthy areas that are anti housebuilding, a phenomenon which began with the by election in 2021 with the Chesham and Amersham by election (a seat held again by the lib dems in 2024).

    "Local opposition to the HS2 rail line, which is being built through the constituency, and the government's planning reforms, which could see more homes being built in rural areas, were major factors in the poll."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

    The tories need to be the party of the NIMBY's if they want to win sets back in the south east.

    Lib Dem are quite brilliant at being anti and pro house building at the same time....depending on who they talk to.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    tlg86 said:

    I went to bed after Truss so missed this. Moment of the night for me - Baker has Balls and Osborne bang to rights:

    https://x.com/GMB/status/1809114873894228261

    He's probably sleep deprived and sore at having lost, so prepared to extend some slack. He's actually talking bollocks. Baker didn't get voted out because of what Labour did more than 15 years ago. And even if it was partly due to what Osborne did, Baker supported him at the time and says he still supports what he did.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808

    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf

    Everything Counts!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211

    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.

    No - not Hunt either.

    I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
    Things won't be right till the membership is disenfranchised from the leadership election. I would sooner disembowel myself with a pair of nail clippers than research the point but I strongly suspect that this cannot happen without the approval of the membership. Houston we have a problem.
    I agree. It should be up to MPs to select their leader in our system of rep dem.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
    Cameron is the alleged behind the scenes leader of the outgoing Government, and he's as elected as Viscount Castlereagh.
    Can a life peer renounce their life peerage?
    Vide Lady Mone (but not sure of the details).
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    tlg86 said:

    I went to bed after Truss so missed this. Moment of the night for me - Baker has Balls and Osborne bang to rights:

    https://x.com/GMB/status/1809114873894228261

    One of the few who gets it that the can they have been kicking since 2008 has reached the end of the road and unpleasant, hard, economic times are incoming shortly (whoever is in power)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf

    Everything Counts!
    I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    MattW said:

    3rd like ... er ...

    >Ed Miliband at DESNZ. Prepare for climate chaos.

    California Burning, as we type.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cllyzngqp0go

    The world is burning and we’re not learning.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211
    He's talking widely about the state of the country not why he in particular has been voted out..

  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Stocky said:

    tlg86 said:

    I went to bed after Truss so missed this. Moment of the night for me - Baker has Balls and Osborne bang to rights:

    https://x.com/GMB/status/1809114873894228261

    Absolutely brilliant. He was ace last night, a top quality guy who will be sadly missed. Look up his interview on Nick Robinson's podcast.
    Fab. Scotch play opportunity: Nothing in his life became him like the leaving of it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 5
    Sky now reporting Reform has won Basildon South & East Thurrock by +98 votes over Con.

    CORRECTION - Reform took Con seat BUT it was Labour in 2nd place yesterday.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211
    edited July 5

    Labour concede Basildon. Reform have 5

    Darn it. That's one of my bets down (under 4.5).
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485

    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf

    As if Lee didn’t have enough work to do as whip with four of them. Labour just trolling reform by making him have to manage five.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    edited July 5

    Nunu5 said:

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
    Didn't the government release the land?
    No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.

    Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.

    And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
    Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808

    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf

    Everything Counts!
    I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
    Steady on, the other half of Basildon (the bit with Billericay) stayed Tory by 20 votes!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Home of Depeche Mode.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 5

    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf

    Everything Counts!
    I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
    Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.

    If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.

    (Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,237

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    A loss worse than Varus
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    It could have been even worse for the SNP:

    Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency

    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
    SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
    Aberdeen North
    SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
    Dundee Central
    SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
    SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
    ----
    Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
    Aberdeen South
    SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.


    https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?

    For the top two maybe. The others, naah.
    Reform took voters off both Lab & Con, and two of the three Labour seats had lower Lab majorities than in the Con seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    Voting was not brisk....some seats had incredibly low turnout. Regardless of who you want to win, that isn't good for democracy.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059
    Folks, can I ask if anybody noted/screenshotted/scraped the Sporting Index seat ranges before 10pm last night (ie 10pm 4th July)?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    boulay said:

    Keir must be looking forward to finishing work in 40 minutes. Luckily it’s been one of those quiet Fridays at work so nothing much on his desk.

    Time for the usual Downing Street party?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    It could have been even worse for the SNP:

    Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency

    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
    SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
    Aberdeen North
    SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
    Dundee Central
    SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
    SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
    ----
    Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
    Aberdeen South
    SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.


    https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?

    For the top two maybe. The others, naah.
    Reform took voters off both Lab & Con, and two of the three Labour seats had lower Lab majorities than in the Con seats.
    Yes, but its a little different in Scotland.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037

    FUKers just won Basildon Sarf

    Everything Counts!
    I can assure people that Basildon is indeed full of FUKers
    Good. That puts them ahead of Greens in the pecking order.

    If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.

    (Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
    On that, is the UUP taking the Tory whip like the old days?
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 5
    biggles said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
    Didn't the government release the land?
    No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.

    Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.

    And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
    Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
    The choice is reinstate already approved by parliament and designed HS2 phase 2a to Crewe.

    Or pay to design and get through Parliament an entirely new scheme to grade separate Colwich Junction and build two new tracks from Colwich Junction to north of Norton Bridge, that provides far less capacity than HS2 phase 2a

    Its a bit of a no brainer and none of the land needed has been sold off yet.

    HS2 is about capacity, speed is a nice to have. The canned bits were also nice to haves where new capacity wasnt essential, except phase 2a to Crewe.

    The dirty secret about HS2 is that the real reason for it is that previous governments built three whacking great new towns along the busiest rail artery in the country (Euston to Rugby) at Hemel, MK and Northampton.

    The prime reason for HS2 is to free up paths for more commuter trains to MK and Northampton plus more freight paths south of Rugby. The rest is spin and gilding.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    boulay said:

    Keir must be looking forward to finishing work in 40 minutes. Luckily it’s been one of those quiet Fridays at work so nothing much on his desk.

    Why not hey? 11,000 of his voters in Old Holborn didn't show up for work yesterday!
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,456

    Foxy said:

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    It will be quite funny when the investigation shows that these missing voters were down to the ID rules.
    We asked every polling station if they had had any issues. Every one said zero. Great! And then at the next polling station we get there with two people arguing with the staff about their lack of ID...
    Yeah, I worry about this. I know they're meant to record them but at the elections in May I saw two people being turned away before giving their name & address, and no obvious note being taken by the polling station workers.

    And, of course, there are the people who have been put off from even trying to vote in the first place.

    Even in Islington North - which was fought incredibly hard, at by-election intensity - the turnout dropped 4.1pp.

    We should be making voting as easy as possible, not doing anything to suppress it.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    Greetings/ I am hungover and sleep deprived but still feeling rather chipper. I have not been on the winning side very often. It is quite discombobulating.

    Anyway, just popping in to blow my own trumpet slightly:

    1. I was a bit off with the vote shares (36 to 26) but I got the 10 point margin between Labour and the Tories spot on.

    2. My two seat tips both came in: Corbyn to win in Islington North, the LibDems to win in Honiton & Sidmouth.

    Yes, I know there are plenty of potential potholes ahead for Labour. But I thought Starmer's speech outside Number 10 was spot on and I have to have at least a bit of faith in the political nous of the team that organised and rolled-out what was probably the most effective first-past-the-post election campaign in British history. The LibDem's campaign probably up there as well.

    I am in the same position!

    I agree on your last paragraph. This win for Labour was not an accident, it was a deliberate victory and those in the Conservative Party who think they can sit back and rely on the swing to save them in 2029 need to understand that Starmer's electoral coalition is incredibly efficient, helped massively by Reform, but Starmer would have won even without them. I also expect a hardening of Labour support for 2029, assuming Labour don't fuck up too bad in Government. Potholes, like you say, but this is a stunning victory given the context, Starmer's equivalent of the 100 Days Offensive.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808
    OnboardG1 said:

    boulay said:

    Keir must be looking forward to finishing work in 40 minutes. Luckily it’s been one of those quiet Fridays at work so nothing much on his desk.

    If anyone deserves a quiet Friday evening with his kids right now, it's Keir Starmer.
    Given they are both teenagers, what has he done wrong now.......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    President Biden, who at 81 is the oldest person ever to hold the office, has displayed signs of accelerated aging in recent months, said numerous aides, foreign officials, members of Congress, donors and others who have interacted with Biden over the last 3½ years, noting that he moves more slowly, speaks more softly and has moments when he loses his train of thought more often than even just a year ago

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/biden-aging-recent-months/
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485
    I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    viewcode said:

    Folks, can I ask if anybody noted/screenshotted/scraped the Sporting Index seat ranges before 10pm last night (ie 10pm 4th July)?

    Hopefully you get a better answer, but I'm pretty sure that the labour seats were about 420 bid.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    This Inverness thing is both intriguing and annoying cause means a bunch of settlements aren't going to take place today no doubt, and I wants to collects all my winnings...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.

    Would anybody want to read it? 6am imaginary peloton ride. Started the day with a coke, did some excel spreadsheet work, sandwiches for lunch. I then had to talk to some members of the public, I didn't really know what to say to them....then back to some more spreadsheets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Mid Beds the only by election gain not to stick? (Hartlepool the other way of course)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
    TSE = pound shop Rishi Sunak :lol:

    #Justkiddin'
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    Just realised that, with a majority this huge, it's unlikely anyone will have to care about the West Lothian Question for the whole term.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    This Inverness thing is both intriguing and annoying cause means a bunch of settlements aren't going to take place today no doubt, and I wants to collects all my winnings...

    It's very frustrating.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    Alcaraz through, spoiling my 250/1 bet on Tiafoe. It was close, though.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485

    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.

    Would anybody want to read it? 6am imaginary peloton ride. Started the day with a coke, did some excel spreadsheet work, sandwiches for lunch. I then had to talk to some members of the public, I didn't really know what to say to them....
    I imagine all those involved in promoting chess around the world would for starters.

    Also probably a good guide how not to do a political campaign.

    He should self publish and make it available for free on kindle.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
    Hopefully now we have ticked off chancellor. We can stop this nonsense. The likes of Sunak, Truss, Kwarteng proved that being non-white / non-male and a bit shit is no handicap to getting top jobs in Britain today.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540

    Mid Beds the only by election gain not to stick? (Hartlepool the other way of course)

    Although there were boundary changes which may have affected it.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?

    Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    Why exclude middle classes kids from this?

    Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.

    Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."

    https://x.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1809254286804611482
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    carnforth said:

    Just realised that, with a majority this huge, it's unlikely anyone will have to care about the West Lothian Question for the whole term.

    Good. We can start off sound ecomomic management by abolishing the Barnett Formula and dividing public spending up equally per head of population regardless of which part of the UK.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,097
    carnforth said:

    Alcaraz through, spoiling my 250/1 bet on Tiafoe. It was close, though.

    His best game is sublime really. Very special.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Breaking - Wes has sold the NHS
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    Tres said:

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?

    Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
    No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    5 MPs from 4m votes. It is quite absurd

    However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time

    4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government

    HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen

    But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand

    If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
    Hopefully now we have ticked off chancellor. We can stop this nonsense. The likes of Sunak, Truss, Kwarteng proved that being non-white / non-male and a bit shit is no handicap to getting top jobs in Britain today.
    Indeed they showed that being non white and non male means you can be easily as useless as white men
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    Breaking - Wes has sold the NHS

    I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5

    Why exclude middle classes kids from this?

    Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.

    Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."

    https://x.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1809254286804611482

    But what is a working person....
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Mid Beds the only by election gain not to stick? (Hartlepool the other way of course)

    Although there were boundary changes which may have affected it.
    Yes, Alistair Strathearn, the winner in the Mid Beds by election won handsomely in next door Hitchin because the bit of Mid Beds where he lives (and comes from) got moved to Hitchin.

    Tories got a dull centrist squeaking in in residual Mid Beds because the vote split between Labour and Reform. Said dull centrist at least lives locally and is a local councillor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.

    Would anybody want to read it? 6am imaginary peloton ride. Started the day with a coke, did some excel spreadsheet work, sandwiches for lunch. I then had to talk to some members of the public, I didn't really know what to say to them....
    I imagine all those involved in promoting chess around the world would for starters.

    Also probably a good guide how not to do a political campaign.

    He should self publish and make it available for free on kindle.
    The thing is I am not sure he will have any great insights one way or another. He just wandered around doing what he was told, quite badly. I would be more interested to know what the team behind him were thinking, as it seemed mad.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Why exclude middle classes kids from this?

    Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.

    Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."

    https://x.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1809254286804611482

    Because it would invite the question why she had just fucked up their lives with the vat thing
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    Leon said:

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
    Hopefully now we have ticked off chancellor. We can stop this nonsense. The likes of Sunak, Truss, Kwarteng proved that being non-white / non-male and a bit shit is no handicap to getting top jobs in Britain today.
    Indeed they showed that being non white and non male means you can be easily as useless as white men
    I am hoping perhaps we can stop the failing upwards across the public and private institutions regardless of race or gender.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    Tres said:

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?

    Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
    No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
    It is already clear that as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top, you just have to ignore all the mansplaining.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    biggles said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
    Didn't the government release the land?
    No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.

    Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.

    And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
    Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
    The solution for Heathrow is to plan to close it and use the area for housing as the Transport Infrastucture is there. And then build a new Heathrow somewhere in North Kent connecting it to HS1..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    No surprises in the new Cabinet. Almost all posts just taken up by the previous Shadow Cabinet holder apart from the Culture Secretary position
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    5 MPs from 4m votes. It is quite absurd

    However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time

    4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government

    HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen

    But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand

    If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
    I suspect Farage is quite pleased. He has got 5 members, all "grown ups" and they can now in his words professionalise and democratise the party without sundry nutters selected at short notice winning and causing all sorts of scandals.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Breaking - Wes has sold the NHS

    I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
    He's not my darjeeling
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    This Inverness thing is both intriguing and annoying cause means a bunch of settlements aren't going to take place today no doubt, and I wants to collects all my winnings...

    A nice problem to have

    Thanks to whoever tipped Con Harrow East btw. That plus an I wish I'd had more on back of lab maj 2 years ago bring me out ahead by about the price of a meal deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited July 5

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?

    Yes, it is a moment worthy of note because she is the first, but it is not as big a deal as her post makes it seem in terms of showing no limit etc, given we've had PMs.

    It's like when some people promoting Star Trek Discovery were trying to make a big deal about a black female lead. It was technically true, but there had been black female main cast, black leads, and female leads, so it was not really that noteworthy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5

    Breaking - Wes has sold the NHS

    I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
    He has impressed me the most. Its a super difficult job, but I find it tiresome that the argument always descends into NHS good, or well its not going well, but look look, US is crap, as if there aren't loads of other models of healthcare, many which work extremely well and there is nothing to learn from them.

    One thing I remember talking to a former colleague from Sweden telling me that he found it very confusing when people always point to Sweden as high tax, high quality public services and miss the bit that a lot of those services are provided by private companies, where government provides the funding / vouchers. That the Swedes didn't see it as hard and fast as public vs private as good vs bad, it was more pragmatic about what was best in each circumstance.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    They'd have certainly taken 5 seats before yesterday but I wonder what Farage really thought he could get.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,655
    I see Lab managed to get less votes than in 2019. That wwould have been available at some enormous price a few weeks ago
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?

    Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
    No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
    It is already clear that as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top, you just have to ignore all the mansplaining.
    Thanks for mansplaining how women can get to the top by ignoring mansplaining. I’m sure they will be grateful for that help.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".

    "To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."

    I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.

    They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.

    Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.

    See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.

    Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
    At least now we can see how Labour will be able to unlock the potential of BAME people, who until now had no other options.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Andy_JS said:

    South Basildon & East Thurrock (result 649/650) -> RefUK gain from Con

    RefUK 12,178
    Lab 12,080
    Con 10,159
    Ind 1,928
    Grn 1,718
    LD 1,071
    Ind 275
    SDP 140

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480

    Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
This discussion has been closed.