Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up
Greetings/ I am hungover and sleep deprived but still feeling rather chipper. I have not been on the winning side very often. It is quite discombobulating.
Anyway, just popping in to blow my own trumpet slightly:
1. I was a bit off with the vote shares (36 to 26) but I got the 10 point margin between Labour and the Tories spot on.
2. My two seat tips both came in: Corbyn to win in Islington North, the LibDems to win in Honiton & Sidmouth.
Yes, I know there are plenty of potential potholes ahead for Labour. But I thought Starmer's speech outside Number 10 was spot on and I have to have at least a bit of faith in the political nous of the team that organised and rolled-out what was probably the most effective first-past-the-post election campaign in British history. The LibDem's campaign probably up there as well.
This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.
Read this. Astonishing and alarming
“In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:
Some of the articles in the press the last couple of days are quite clear. The White House hasn't been protecting Biden, they have been hiding his problems, but they obviously couldn't do that during the debate, and without the teleprompters, recorded interviews, and aides giving him a nudge or a whipser in his ear, it has all blown up.
I could just about see Biden continuing as President in such a fashion until inauguration of the next President, but I do not understand how anyone could think it right for him to run on the basis that he will serve all the way to January 2029. The Democrats are now taking US voters for fools.
Yes. Exactly. And so they risk destroying the Democrat party AS WELL and all for a clearly demented President. It’s fucking bats
Get rid of him ASAFP
He had another couple of malfunctions yesterday. How is he going to be able to campaign?
The conspiracy of silence by the media is the real scandal. They have known, they must have done, but so obsessed by what if, it will help Trump. So much for truth to power.
The thing by covering it up, they probably made Trump more likely.
Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.
No - not Hunt either.
I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024 Con 13.97m > 6.81m Lab 10.27m > 9.69m LD 3.70m > 3.50m
Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...
It will be quite funny when the investigation shows that these missing voters were down to the ID rules.
We asked every polling station if they had had any issues. Every one said zero. Great! And then at the next polling station we get there with two people arguing with the staff about their lack of ID...
At our local polling station there was a member of staff at the door checking if we had id before we got in. I asked him whether he noted down any details of anyone who was refused for lack of id. He said that the electoral commission will produce a report.
There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562 Aberdeen North SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781 Dundee Central SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800 ---- Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote. Aberdeen South SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.
Not for betting purposes, but we always get the confusion in reporting of UK vs GB figures in the media.
Another huge mistake the Dems have made is claiming “all the rumours about Biden being senile are right wing conspiracy theories”
Just like they told us the lab leak was also a “racist conspiracy theory”
And yet both of these things are true. They are thereby FUELLING the conspiracy theories
This was before the recent more obvious declining and so he now supports replacing him, but this former GOP nevertrumper was arguing for leaning into it previously, including in other ones suggesting being more open in admitting Biden was not as fresh as others claimed.
You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.
One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.
It's not that binary, and it needs to be a broad church.
Competence, sleaze, behaviour and the cost of living crisis amount to most of the Conservative defeat, and failure on immigration on top.
I'd also include a big slice of simply having been there for too many years. I believe that produces the internal party issues you cite, and it's hard to see how they could overcome it.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562 Aberdeen North SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781 Dundee Central SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800 ---- Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote. Aberdeen South SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562 Aberdeen North SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781 Dundee Central SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800 ---- Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote. Aberdeen South SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562 Aberdeen North SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781 Dundee Central SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800 ---- Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote. Aberdeen South SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
The lib dems won seats off the tories in lots of seats where planning is a big issue, ie wealthy areas that are anti housebuilding, a phenomenon which began with the by election in 2021 with the Chesham and Amersham by election (a seat held again by the lib dems in 2024).
"Local opposition to the HS2 rail line, which is being built through the constituency, and the government's planning reforms, which could see more homes being built in rural areas, were major factors in the poll."
Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.
No - not Hunt either.
I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
Things won't be right till the membership is disenfranchised from the leadership election. I would sooner disembowel myself with a pair of nail clippers than research the point but I strongly suspect that this cannot happen without the approval of the membership. Houston we have a problem.
There seems to be confusion over how many votes Labour have overall, and I'm guessing it's down to whether or not you include their votes in Central Suffolk, because the candidate was disowned but still appeared on the ballot paper. The sort of thing that could affect bets.
Is BBC, and others, counting the publicly-disclaimed rogue (or rather over-candid) Reform candidates?
The lib dems won seats off the tories in lots of seats where planning is a big issue, ie wealthy areas that are anti housebuilding, a phenomenon which began with the by election in 2021 with the Chesham and Amersham by election (a seat held again by the lib dems in 2024).
"Local opposition to the HS2 rail line, which is being built through the constituency, and the government's planning reforms, which could see more homes being built in rural areas, were major factors in the poll."
He's probably sleep deprived and sore at having lost, so prepared to extend some slack. He's actually talking bollocks. Baker didn't get voted out because of what Labour did more than 15 years ago. And even if it was partly due to what Osborne did, Baker supported him at the time and says he still supports what he did.
Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.
No - not Hunt either.
I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
Things won't be right till the membership is disenfranchised from the leadership election. I would sooner disembowel myself with a pair of nail clippers than research the point but I strongly suspect that this cannot happen without the approval of the membership. Houston we have a problem.
I agree. It should be up to MPs to select their leader in our system of rep dem.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
If it's a fairer system so be it.
If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are
The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again
All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028
Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem
Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person
But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.
In order to form a government you have to be elected.
Cameron is the alleged behind the scenes leader of the outgoing Government, and he's as elected as Viscount Castlereagh.
One of the few who gets it that the can they have been kicking since 2008 has reached the end of the road and unpleasant, hard, economic times are incoming shortly (whoever is in power)
Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up
Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
Didn't the government release the land?
No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.
Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.
And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
I know we have all lived and breathed this election for ages. And the results since 22:00 yesterday. But as Sky News plays out more bits I still have FUCK ME moments where you struggle to comprehend what just happened.
It really has been sensational. Yes, another 60 seats taken off the Tories could have been fun, but none of us could quite believe that the Con / LD crossover could actually happen. Even if we wanted it. Even so, its an election they will study for ever.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562 Aberdeen North SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781 Dundee Central SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800 ---- Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote. Aberdeen South SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562 Aberdeen North SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781 Dundee Central SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800 ---- Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote. Aberdeen South SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up
Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
Didn't the government release the land?
No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.
Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.
And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
The choice is reinstate already approved by parliament and designed HS2 phase 2a to Crewe.
Or pay to design and get through Parliament an entirely new scheme to grade separate Colwich Junction and build two new tracks from Colwich Junction to north of Norton Bridge, that provides far less capacity than HS2 phase 2a
Its a bit of a no brainer and none of the land needed has been sold off yet.
HS2 is about capacity, speed is a nice to have. The canned bits were also nice to haves where new capacity wasnt essential, except phase 2a to Crewe.
The dirty secret about HS2 is that the real reason for it is that previous governments built three whacking great new towns along the busiest rail artery in the country (Euston to Rugby) at Hemel, MK and Northampton.
The prime reason for HS2 is to free up paths for more commuter trains to MK and Northampton plus more freight paths south of Rugby. The rest is spin and gilding.
Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024 Con 13.97m > 6.81m Lab 10.27m > 9.69m LD 3.70m > 3.50m
Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...
It will be quite funny when the investigation shows that these missing voters were down to the ID rules.
We asked every polling station if they had had any issues. Every one said zero. Great! And then at the next polling station we get there with two people arguing with the staff about their lack of ID...
Yeah, I worry about this. I know they're meant to record them but at the elections in May I saw two people being turned away before giving their name & address, and no obvious note being taken by the polling station workers.
And, of course, there are the people who have been put off from even trying to vote in the first place.
Even in Islington North - which was fought incredibly hard, at by-election intensity - the turnout dropped 4.1pp.
We should be making voting as easy as possible, not doing anything to suppress it.
Greetings/ I am hungover and sleep deprived but still feeling rather chipper. I have not been on the winning side very often. It is quite discombobulating.
Anyway, just popping in to blow my own trumpet slightly:
1. I was a bit off with the vote shares (36 to 26) but I got the 10 point margin between Labour and the Tories spot on.
2. My two seat tips both came in: Corbyn to win in Islington North, the LibDems to win in Honiton & Sidmouth.
Yes, I know there are plenty of potential potholes ahead for Labour. But I thought Starmer's speech outside Number 10 was spot on and I have to have at least a bit of faith in the political nous of the team that organised and rolled-out what was probably the most effective first-past-the-post election campaign in British history. The LibDem's campaign probably up there as well.
I am in the same position!
I agree on your last paragraph. This win for Labour was not an accident, it was a deliberate victory and those in the Conservative Party who think they can sit back and rely on the swing to save them in 2029 need to understand that Starmer's electoral coalition is incredibly efficient, helped massively by Reform, but Starmer would have won even without them. I also expect a hardening of Labour support for 2029, assuming Labour don't fuck up too bad in Government. Potholes, like you say, but this is a stunning victory given the context, Starmer's equivalent of the 100 Days Offensive.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
President Biden, who at 81 is the oldest person ever to hold the office, has displayed signs of accelerated aging in recent months, said numerous aides, foreign officials, members of Congress, donors and others who have interacted with Biden over the last 3½ years, noting that he moves more slowly, speaks more softly and has moments when he loses his train of thought more often than even just a year ago
I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.
This Inverness thing is both intriguing and annoying cause means a bunch of settlements aren't going to take place today no doubt, and I wants to collects all my winnings...
I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.
Would anybody want to read it? 6am imaginary peloton ride. Started the day with a coke, did some excel spreadsheet work, sandwiches for lunch. I then had to talk to some members of the public, I didn't really know what to say to them....then back to some more spreadsheets.
This Inverness thing is both intriguing and annoying cause means a bunch of settlements aren't going to take place today no doubt, and I wants to collects all my winnings...
I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.
Would anybody want to read it? 6am imaginary peloton ride. Started the day with a coke, did some excel spreadsheet work, sandwiches for lunch. I then had to talk to some members of the public, I didn't really know what to say to them....
I imagine all those involved in promoting chess around the world would for starters.
Also probably a good guide how not to do a political campaign.
He should self publish and make it available for free on kindle.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.
They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.
Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.
See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.
Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
Hopefully now we have ticked off chancellor. We can stop this nonsense. The likes of Sunak, Truss, Kwarteng proved that being non-white / non-male and a bit shit is no handicap to getting top jobs in Britain today.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.
Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."
Just realised that, with a majority this huge, it's unlikely anyone will have to care about the West Lothian Question for the whole term.
Good. We can start off sound ecomomic management by abolishing the Barnett Formula and dividing public spending up equally per head of population regardless of which part of the UK.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.
They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.
Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.
See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.
Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
Hopefully now we have ticked off chancellor. We can stop this nonsense. The likes of Sunak, Truss, Kwarteng proved that being non-white / non-male and a bit shit is no handicap to getting top jobs in Britain today.
Indeed they showed that being non white and non male means you can be easily as useless as white men
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.
Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."
Mid Beds the only by election gain not to stick? (Hartlepool the other way of course)
Although there were boundary changes which may have affected it.
Yes, Alistair Strathearn, the winner in the Mid Beds by election won handsomely in next door Hitchin because the bit of Mid Beds where he lives (and comes from) got moved to Hitchin.
Tories got a dull centrist squeaking in in residual Mid Beds because the vote split between Labour and Reform. Said dull centrist at least lives locally and is a local councillor.
I wonder if Sunak will be the first PM for a while who doesn’t churn out a book about his time as PM etc? He doesn’t need the money and doesn’t seem very egotistical so maybe he will be content just to crack on with a third career in his life.
Would anybody want to read it? 6am imaginary peloton ride. Started the day with a coke, did some excel spreadsheet work, sandwiches for lunch. I then had to talk to some members of the public, I didn't really know what to say to them....
I imagine all those involved in promoting chess around the world would for starters.
Also probably a good guide how not to do a political campaign.
He should self publish and make it available for free on kindle.
The thing is I am not sure he will have any great insights one way or another. He just wandered around doing what he was told, quite badly. I would be more interested to know what the team behind him were thinking, as it seemed mad.
Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.
Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc.
They do not count for Labour/lefties because those 3 PMs were Tories.
Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.
See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.
Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
Hopefully now we have ticked off chancellor. We can stop this nonsense. The likes of Sunak, Truss, Kwarteng proved that being non-white / non-male and a bit shit is no handicap to getting top jobs in Britain today.
Indeed they showed that being non white and non male means you can be easily as useless as white men
I am hoping perhaps we can stop the failing upwards across the public and private institutions regardless of race or gender.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
It is already clear that as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top, you just have to ignore all the mansplaining.
Whether the Conservatives can make significant gains from Labour depends in part on whether the next Tory leader can come to a deal with Farage so that where Reform or the Tories were second to Labour the other party doesn't spend significant resources contesting that seat.
Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up
Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
Didn't the government release the land?
No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.
Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.
And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
Suits everyone. Labour gets to switch back on a totemic project the country needs, and the Tories get to go full on nimby in the Midlands and North to try and reconnect. See also Heathrow. Freed from actually having to govern, the Tories can use that to be nimby and also pretend they are green. Meanwhile Labour gets it through, which is what the country needs.
The solution for Heathrow is to plan to close it and use the area for housing as the Transport Infrastucture is there. And then build a new Heathrow somewhere in North Kent connecting it to HS1..
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
I suspect Farage is quite pleased. He has got 5 members, all "grown ups" and they can now in his words professionalise and democratise the party without sundry nutters selected at short notice winning and causing all sorts of scandals.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
This Inverness thing is both intriguing and annoying cause means a bunch of settlements aren't going to take place today no doubt, and I wants to collects all my winnings...
A nice problem to have
Thanks to whoever tipped Con Harrow East btw. That plus an I wish I'd had more on back of lab maj 2 years ago bring me out ahead by about the price of a meal deal.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Yes, it is a moment worthy of note because she is the first, but it is not as big a deal as her post makes it seem in terms of showing no limit etc, given we've had PMs.
It's like when some people promoting Star Trek Discovery were trying to make a big deal about a black female lead. It was technically true, but there had been black female main cast, black leads, and female leads, so it was not really that noteworthy.
I like Wes, he made the excellent point that we need to stop thinking there's only two extreme options when it comes to healthcare in the UK, only the NHS or American style healthcare which is pretty much limited to the wealthy.
He has impressed me the most. Its a super difficult job, but I find it tiresome that the argument always descends into NHS good, or well its not going well, but look look, US is crap, as if there aren't loads of other models of healthcare, many which work extremely well and there is nothing to learn from them.
One thing I remember talking to a former colleague from Sweden telling me that he found it very confusing when people always point to Sweden as high tax, high quality public services and miss the bit that a lot of those services are provided by private companies, where government provides the funding / vouchers. That the Swedes didn't see it as hard and fast as public vs private as good vs bad, it was more pragmatic about what was best in each circumstance.
She has also posted on social media that being the first female chancellor comes with "historic responsibility".
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
Every single Chancellor of Exchequer in history until today has been a man and you think this is not worthy of comment. It's a view.....
No not really no. If we hadn't had female PMs and other big jobs, yes. But not now, no. Particularly the part about you can dream that you can achieve. We have had 3 female PMs. It is already clear that you as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top.
It is already clear that as a woman in the UK that you can get right to the top, you just have to ignore all the mansplaining.
Thanks for mansplaining how women can get to the top by ignoring mansplaining. I’m sure they will be grateful for that help.
Close 3 way there between Tories, Reform and Labour, pity about Stephen Metcalfe who was a good MP and a former EDFC councillor and his mother a Buckhurst Hill county councillor
Comments
Just like they told us the lab leak was also a “racist conspiracy theory”
And yet both of these things are true. They are thereby FUELLING the conspiracy theories
Anyway, just popping in to blow my own trumpet slightly:
1. I was a bit off with the vote shares (36 to 26) but I got the 10 point margin between Labour and the Tories spot on.
2. My two seat tips both came in: Corbyn to win in Islington North, the LibDems to win in Honiton & Sidmouth.
Yes, I know there are plenty of potential potholes ahead for Labour. But I thought Starmer's speech outside Number 10 was spot on and I have to have at least a bit of faith in the political nous of the team that organised and rolled-out what was probably the most effective first-past-the-post election campaign in British history. The LibDem's campaign probably up there as well.
The conspiracy of silence by the media is the real scandal. They have known, they must have done, but so obsessed by what if, it will help Trump. So much for truth to power.
The thing by covering it up, they probably made Trump more likely.
I can image one being put through by MPs but the membership wouldn't choose either. Of course if both were put through then the membership would have to choose one. But that's very unlikely IMO.
Scottish seats won by the SNP with majorities less than the Reform vote by constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
SNP maj 1001 over Tories. Reform vote was 3,490
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
SNP maj 942 over Tories. Reform vote was 5,562
Aberdeen North
SNP maj 1760 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,781
Dundee Central
SNP maj 675 over Labour. Reform vote was 2,363
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
SNP maj 859 over Labour. Reform vote was 3,800
----
Seats where SNP majority was only marginally greater than Reform vote.
Aberdeen South
SNP majority 3758 over Labour (11,455) & Tory (11,300). Reform vote was 3,199.
https://x.com/deanmthomson/status/1809251555520250082?
I'd also include a big slice of simply having been there for too many years. I believe that produces the internal party issues you cite, and it's hard to see how they could overcome it.
Last night's result was great for Scottish independence.
Not sure how, but I saw some Nats on Twitter saying it was.
"Local opposition to the HS2 rail line, which is being built through the constituency, and the government's planning reforms, which could see more homes being built in rural areas, were major factors in the poll."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032
The tories need to be the party of the NIMBY's if they want to win sets back in the south east.
CORRECTION - Reform took Con seat BUT it was Labour in 2nd place yesterday.
If Jim Allister takes the whip that also means more short funds.
(Didnt realise they also get £42.82 per 200 votes. So they will get £0.9 million a year plus £21,000 per MP
It really has been sensational. Yes, another 60 seats taken off the Tories could have been fun, but none of us could quite believe that the Con / LD crossover could actually happen. Even if we wanted it. Even so, its an election they will study for ever.
What a privilege to have been part of it!
Or pay to design and get through Parliament an entirely new scheme to grade separate Colwich Junction and build two new tracks from Colwich Junction to north of Norton Bridge, that provides far less capacity than HS2 phase 2a
Its a bit of a no brainer and none of the land needed has been sold off yet.
HS2 is about capacity, speed is a nice to have. The canned bits were also nice to haves where new capacity wasnt essential, except phase 2a to Crewe.
The dirty secret about HS2 is that the real reason for it is that previous governments built three whacking great new towns along the busiest rail artery in the country (Euston to Rugby) at Hemel, MK and Northampton.
The prime reason for HS2 is to free up paths for more commuter trains to MK and Northampton plus more freight paths south of Rugby. The rest is spin and gilding.
And, of course, there are the people who have been put off from even trying to vote in the first place.
Even in Islington North - which was fought incredibly hard, at by-election intensity - the turnout dropped 4.1pp.
We should be making voting as easy as possible, not doing anything to suppress it.
I agree on your last paragraph. This win for Labour was not an accident, it was a deliberate victory and those in the Conservative Party who think they can sit back and rely on the swing to save them in 2029 need to understand that Starmer's electoral coalition is incredibly efficient, helped massively by Reform, but Starmer would have won even without them. I also expect a hardening of Labour support for 2029, assuming Labour don't fuck up too bad in Government. Potholes, like you say, but this is a stunning victory given the context, Starmer's equivalent of the 100 Days Offensive.
RefUK 12,178
Lab 12,080
Con 10,159
Ind 1,928
Grn 1,718
LD 1,071
Ind 275
SDP 140
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001480
"To every young girl and woman reading this, let today show that there should be no limits on your ambitions."
I find this of a bit weird statement...we have had 3 female PMs, women is most of the top jobs, etc. The same with non-white people. We have had PM, chancellor, etc. It is ticks off the chancellor job, and?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/biden-aging-recent-months/
Same way Sunak's wealth means he really wasn't the UK's first non white PM.
See we're class traitors for being middle class/wealthy.
Looks like this cabinet is so working class, nowt but class warfare from this lot.
#Justkiddin'
Also probably a good guide how not to do a political campaign.
He should self publish and make it available for free on kindle.
Saying all kids should have their potentials realised would be great.
Reeves tells Treasury: "I will judge my time in office a success if I know that, at the end of it, there are working-class kids from ordinary backgrounds living richer lives, their horizons expanded, and their potential realised."
https://x.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1809254286804611482
However, if the Tories do what I expect, appoint some pathetic centrist as leader and make unconvincing noises about migration and tax, and offer no credible policies, and all of it preseented by some spineless thick twat or weird lame nerd that obviously doesn't believe any of it anyway, then they have a tremendous opportunity to break through next time
4m could become 6m or 8m and they displace the Tories and win 200 seats. And if Labour absolutely implode into Woke nonsense they could win 350 seats and be the next government
HOWEVER this does depend on some tricky manuevers by Farage and Co. He has to see that HE is not the man. He's disliked by too many. For a bloke with a big mouth and an oversized ego that won't be easy. But it needs to be done, over this parliament he has to step back and recruit younger, plausible people as candidates. Acquire disenchanted Tories. Get donors, follow the path of Meloni and Le Pen
But at least, for Reform, there is now a clear if difficult path. The first necessary step was getting ELECTED MPs into the Commons, especually Farage. They've done that (despite many on here and elsewhere who predicted Farage would fail, I should have taken that Farage-will-fail bet!). They are like the first Allied Forces landing on Utah beach on Hour 1 of D Day, it is perilous but it is a necessary beginning, from here they can expand
If they are clever, and if they are lucky, it might happen
Tories got a dull centrist squeaking in in residual Mid Beds because the vote split between Labour and Reform. Said dull centrist at least lives locally and is a local councillor.
Thanks to whoever tipped Con Harrow East btw. That plus an I wish I'd had more on back of lab maj 2 years ago bring me out ahead by about the price of a meal deal.
It's like when some people promoting Star Trek Discovery were trying to make a big deal about a black female lead. It was technically true, but there had been black female main cast, black leads, and female leads, so it was not really that noteworthy.
One thing I remember talking to a former colleague from Sweden telling me that he found it very confusing when people always point to Sweden as high tax, high quality public services and miss the bit that a lot of those services are provided by private companies, where government provides the funding / vouchers. That the Swedes didn't see it as hard and fast as public vs private as good vs bad, it was more pragmatic about what was best in each circumstance.