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Some more election stats – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 6 in General
Some more election stats – politicalbetting.com

I know we all knew this was coming, but it’s still remarkable to see how deep into very, very safe Conservative seats Labour (and Lib Dems and Reform) made gains.Plotted here against Blair’s 1997 landslide for scale.Just an extraordinarily motivated anti-Tory vote ?? pic.twitter.com/VpsXdLARNe

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    edited July 5
    Ed Miliband at DESNZ. Prepare for climate chaos.

    Edit: And First like Labour in over 400 seats.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    The whole country has become marginal?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,487
    edited July 5
    3rd like ... er ...

    >Ed Miliband at DESNZ. Prepare for climate chaos.

    California Burning, as we type.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cllyzngqp0go
  • Options
    All the more remarkable when Labour only got 35% of the vote.

    Morgan McSweeney has run possibly the most efficient Labour campaign in terms of seats, ever.

    It shows that Corbyn's strategy in 2017 and 2019 was fundamentally flawed. They didn't need to win millions more voters, they needed to win more voters in the right seats. And McSweeney has managed that perfectly.

    With this approach he's been able to allow the Lib Dems to take the Tories away in their target seats with further efficiency and ease.

    So I take my hat off to him, this has been an incredible campaign.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Wonder how many of the ERG survived? Hopefully they have so few members the one's left wind it up?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    How low could Labour's vote share have gone and the party still have won an overall majority?
  • Options
    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 314
    Why have William Hill not settled two of my bets on the Election, Reform to win more than 3.5 seats, and Labour less than 418.5 seats, and before anyone thinks I'm a shrewdie, I lost plenty of others, they have paid up on others Farage to win in Clacton etc
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122
    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Agreed. What I saw of the BBC coverage was poor. C4 much better apart from Nadine Dorries who I had to switch away from whenever she was given the microphone.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    GIN1138 said:

    The whole country has become marginal?

    There are very few super safe seats for any party now - inner city Manchester and Liverpool for Labour plus the totemic London seats, that's it. Harrow and Richmond Tories safest, LDs have a handful of super safe seats now everything else is up for grabs. Next election will see seats changing hands all over the shop even if 'nothing has changed'
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131

    Foss said:

    Electionpolling.co.uk already has a nice set of marginal seat lists for 2029.

    Quote interestingly on a swing of 5% against the Tories lose 70 seats (over half) but the lib dems only lose 20. The lib dems need to get the ground game going now to keep hold of those votes leant to them for this election.
    I note York Central is Labour's 8th safest seat now!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Andy_JS said:

    How low could Labour's vote share have gone and the party still have won an overall majority?

    I was playing with Baxter to test exactly this, yesterday. With the correct split in the opposition Labour could have won with 27-28% of the vote. Maybe less
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
  • Options
    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    TSE, can you translate your final sentence above?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    Leon isn't in the party.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 5
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    edited July 5

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    I don't think the Tories can ever win back seats like Guildford and Winchester no matter how One Nation they are, so they might as well join Reform in attempting to win over Labour voters in places like Pontefract.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    mickydroy said:

    Why have William Hill not settled two of my bets on the Election, Reform to win more than 3.5 seats, and Labour less than 418.5 seats, and before anyone thinks I'm a shrewdie, I lost plenty of others, they have paid up on others Farage to win in Clacton etc

    maybe as part of wider seat market betting they are not yet finalised
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    I wonder if the Tories are going the way of Les Republicains in France. Once an impregnable bastion of the right. Now down to a rump with about 8-10% of the vote
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Thread:

    Opinium conducted an On The Day poll with @itn for Channel 4 to explain the results of the #GE24 .

    Find out what 4,500 UK adults said on polling day about the parties, leaders, and their vote. 👇


    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1809247043535470946
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    MaxPB said:

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    Leon isn't in the party.
    Damn right I’m not
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Huh?

    "NO FEELS SEAT GIVEN LAST NIGHT'S RESULTS"
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231

    Huh?

    "NO FEELS SEAT GIVEN LAST NIGHT'S RESULTS"

    No seat feels safe
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Perhaps the most shocking results of yesterday, was Labour winning Cities of London and Westminster, which (I think) is a first.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Yep. There are 10 to 15 London seats, a swathe of South and South west seats and the Kent corridor plus East Anglian rural seats to target. The rural NE seats should be targettable on a centrist strategy
  • Options
    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 314

    mickydroy said:

    Why have William Hill not settled two of my bets on the Election, Reform to win more than 3.5 seats, and Labour less than 418.5 seats, and before anyone thinks I'm a shrewdie, I lost plenty of others, they have paid up on others Farage to win in Clacton etc

    maybe as part of wider seat market betting they are not yet finalised
    Thanks
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,743

    Huh?

    "NO FEELS SEAT GIVEN LAST NIGHT'S RESULTS"

    I didn't know Biden was writing the articles.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    TSE, can you translate your final sentence above?

    Should read 'No seat feels safe given last night's results.'
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foss said:

    Electionpolling.co.uk already has a nice set of marginal seat lists for 2029.

    Quote interestingly on a swing of 5% against the Tories lose 70 seats (over half) but the lib dems only lose 20. The lib dems need to get the ground game going now to keep hold of those votes leant to them for this election.
    I note York Central is Labour's 8th safest seat now!
    Very impressive Labour win in York Outer too - Labour up 15pp, Tories down 23pp.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Yep. There are 10 to 15 London seats, a swathe of South and South west seats and the Kent corridor plus East Anglian rural seats to target. The rural NE seats should be targettable on a centrist strategy
    Yup, that's the target, not promises of labour camps for black and brown people.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Quite. There is so much absurdity in current fashionable politics that it's enough to be faintly sensible to reap the rewards.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,403
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    He fought and won his seat when he could have easily been this elections Portillo. That honour went to the lettuce loser instead.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    It will be quite funny when the investigation shows that these missing voters were down to the ID rules.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
    Why Liz Truss bothered to run for re-election, as a Tory anyway, is puzzling. Seeing as how her loss will NOT have helped her waning brand, in the UK or beyond.

    Wonder how long before she's Lady Truss of Whiplash in the County of Whatevershire?

    Or better yet . . ."Arise, Dame Dingleberry!"
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How low could Labour's vote share have gone and the party still have won an overall majority?

    I was playing with Baxter to test exactly this, yesterday. With the correct split in the opposition Labour could have won with 27-28% of the vote. Maybe less
    Once you have five reasonably plausible players, the winning post in FPTP moves very low, and the national outcome is something of a crapshoot. But the Lab/Con ratio last night was pretty much the same as on 1997; both times, Labour got 1.4 votes for every 1 Conservative vote.

    And while the Lib Dem and Reform seat figures look silly, they do capture something meaningful. Few people really mind the Lib Dems, lots of people really don't like Reform.

    And the problem for the next Conservative leader is that they really need to win voters currently to their left and their right. That's going to need a plan a cunning as a fox with a PhD in Cunning from Cunning College Cambridge, and that course has been axed because of university funding problems.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
    Cameron is the alleged behind the scenes leader of the outgoing Government, and he's as elected as Viscount Castlereagh.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    mickydroy said:

    Why have William Hill not settled two of my bets on the Election, Reform to win more than 3.5 seats, and Labour less than 418.5 seats, and before anyone thinks I'm a shrewdie, I lost plenty of others, they have paid up on others Farage to win in Clacton etc

    Hills have been shit all round.

    Their website was also down all night long, and they also limit punters to pennies.

    Shit.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Andy_JS said:

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    I don't think the Tories can ever win back seats like Guildford and Winchester no matter how One Nation they are, so they might as well join Reform in attempting to win over Labour voters in places like Pontefract.
    I don't agree with that.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    It's not that binary, and it needs to be a broad church.

    Competence, sleaze, behaviour and the cost of living crisis amount to most of the Conservative defeat, and failure on immigration on top.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    edited July 5
    For all you future-history revisionists, note that a century ago (close enough) the Asquithian Liberal "Wee Frees" were likewise full of hope and good cheer (ditto piss & vinegar) in immediate aftermath of 1923 GE.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Yep. There are 10 to 15 London seats, a swathe of South and South west seats and the Kent corridor plus East Anglian rural seats to target. The rural NE seats should be targettable on a centrist strategy
    Yup, that's the target, not promises of labour camps for black and brown people.
    Yes. A shrewd Tory Party will vote for Starmer policies his backbenches hate to sew division, and actively encourage him to get caught up in a northern fights with Reform in seats the Tories can’t win.

    They then give themselves a chance to come through the middle as a the united and sensible voice.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,403
    edited July 5
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    Yes, the tory volunteers I was speaking to at the count last night all hated Farage and his MAGA like grifting. If they walk away the party will cease to be an effective campaigning operation.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,487
    I wonder who will be in Davey's spokespeople team?

    He will need to allow a lot of "digging in" time.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782

    Andy_JS said:

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    I don't think the Tories can ever win back seats like Guildford and Winchester no matter how One Nation they are, so they might as well join Reform in attempting to win over Labour voters in places like Pontefract.
    I don't agree with that.
    Yup, if the Tories go back to being the party of low taxes and small government then winning back seats across the south is not only possible, it's probable.

    The Boris coalition was built on the back of unrealistic policies - namely low taxes and high spending. It fell apart when Rishi tried to introduce reality of, you know, having to pay for that high spending.

    We need a leader who tells the truth to voters, we have run out of money and we've got to live within our means so the government is going to have to do less.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 5
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    I’m basically agreeing with you!

    But I don’t think Hunt is the man. He’s too spineless and lame and too tarnished
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Taking from wikipedia which has not filled in all info yet, so some of tihs might change a bit, but it is interesting to look at the minor parties who did not win seat to see how many votes per candidate they received on average (rounded).

    UKIP down to less than 7k votes, how much longer can this fringe group survive?

  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    Leon isn't in the party.
    No he isn't but he's not the only one.

    I think you do understand that you need to win back voters like me. But I am not convinced your candidates for leadership do.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Hat tip to James Bagge who's 14% in SW Norfolk was the unadulterated revenge of the Turnip Taliban.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231
    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
    It would of course help if these tools who have Randy angry protests at Farage rallies etc would just stop. It’s not going to change a single mind against Farage but solidifies his position with his support as he can just say “see, they all want to shut down your voice by shutting me down.”

    The protests are more about the protesters than the target and they need to just stop and stop making Farage an outsider - he needs to be made mainstream so he’s just like all the others.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    For those (like me) without a PhD in stats and psephology this would seem to be the simple formula:

    More significant parties + more tactical voting + less loyal demographic = more volatile seats + more marginal seats
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    MattW said:

    I wonder who will be in Davey's spokespeople team?

    I know how he can decide who gets the job
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvSnllyBc4c
  • Options
    The ECHR isn't on the list of priorities, goodness me when are the Tories going to understand this.

    It's simple: build houses.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231
    Leon said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    I’m basically agreeing with you!

    But I don’t think Hunt is the man. He’s too spineless and lame and too tarnished
    I quite fancy Geoffrey Cox. He would show SKS at pmqs what forensic really looks like, if nothing else
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    algarkirk said:

    For those (like me) without a PhD in stats and psephology this would seem to be the simple formula:

    More significant parties + more tactical voting + less loyal demographic = more volatile seats + more marginal seats

    I have a feeling that low turnout saved the Tories. It'd be very interesting to see polling as to if pressed what the non-voters would have voted. I suspect there were a big number of unenthused, but if pressed, Labour voters.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
    Cameron is the alleged behind the scenes leader of the outgoing Government, and he's as elected as Viscount Castlereagh.
    Can a life peer renounce their life peerage?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foss said:

    Electionpolling.co.uk already has a nice set of marginal seat lists for 2029.

    Quote interestingly on a swing of 5% against the Tories lose 70 seats (over half) but the lib dems only lose 20. The lib dems need to get the ground game going now to keep hold of those votes leant to them for this election.
    I note York Central is Labour's 8th safest seat now!
    Very impressive Labour win in York Outer too - Labour up 15pp, Tories down 23pp.
    The donut and the Timbit.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    Yes but Hunt held his seat while your girl Truss surprised on the downside.

    In order to form a government you have to be elected.
    Cameron is the alleged behind the scenes leader of the outgoing Government, and he's as elected as Viscount Castlereagh.
    Can a life peer renounce their life peerage?
    Yes,,they can now resign. They couldn't under the Benn and Home Act.
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,766
    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
    It would of course help if these tools who have Randy angry protests at Farage rallies etc would just stop. It’s not going to change a single mind against Farage but solidifies his position with his support as he can just say “see, they all want to shut down your voice by shutting me down.”

    The protests are more about the protesters than the target and they need to just stop and stop making Farage an outsider - he needs to be made mainstream so he’s just like all the others.
    He is also very good at dealing with hecklers and turning it to his advantage.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    edited July 5
    Foxy said:

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    It will be quite funny when the investigation shows that these missing voters were down to the ID rules.
    We asked every polling station if they had had any issues. Every one said zero. Great! And then at the next polling station we get there with two people arguing with the staff about their lack of ID...
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    Leon said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    I’m basically agreeing with you!

    But I don’t think Hunt is the man. He’s too spineless and lame and too tarnished
    I quite fancy Geoffrey Cox. He would show SKS at pmqs what forensic really looks like, if nothing else
    Agree - and better still anyone listening to the radio would think that Brian Blessed was leader of the Tories which would have to be good.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    Anyway, one of the best two teams in the Euros so far is about to be knocked out. England to face, and beat, the winners of Spain v. Germany in the final?
    The feelgood factor throughout the nation would be immense.

    And, of course, Starmer would be, yet again, a lucky general.
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,766
    kle4 said:

    Taking from wikipedia which has not filled in all info yet, so some of tihs might change a bit, but it is interesting to look at the minor parties who did not win seat to see how many votes per candidate they received on average (rounded).

    UKIP down to less than 7k votes, how much longer can this fringe group survive?

    The Liberal Party and SDP are still going.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    The ECHR isn't on the list of priorities, goodness me when are the Tories going to understand this.

    It's simple: build houses.

    The liberals did just steal some of their votes by promising to build zero houses.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    MaxPB said:

    You see above though how the Tories are fairly doomed at the moment.

    One user is saying they need to go anti-woke and other are saying they need to appeal to people in the South where these woke culture wars go down like a cup of cold sick.

    Leon isn't in the party.
    No he isn't but he's not the only one.

    I think you do understand that you need to win back voters like me. But I am not convinced your candidates for leadership do.
    We do joke about parties rejecting the electorate and indulging themselves after a loss - "The public voted in Keir Starmer, they must want us to do the opposite!" - but I can see some amount of logic in that without a solid core to a party you cannot build on it, so you might need a period of navel gazing to establish why you have a party at all, before you can realistically go after more centrist voters, as otherwise it looks too cynical.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    A quote

    “Those who encountered the president in social settings sometimes left their interactions disturbed. Longtime friends of the Biden family, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, were shocked to find that the president did not remember their names. At a White House event last year, a guest recalled, with horror, realizing that the president would not be able to stay for the reception because, it was clear, he would not be able to make it through the reception. The guest wasn’t sure they could vote for Biden, since the guest was now open to an idea that they had previously dismissed as right-wing propaganda: The president may not really be the acting president after all.”
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    kle4 said:

    Taking from wikipedia which has not filled in all info yet, so some of tihs might change a bit, but it is interesting to look at the minor parties who did not win seat to see how many votes per candidate they received on average (rounded).

    UKIP down to less than 7k votes, how much longer can this fringe group survive?

    The SDP fielded 122 candidates (up from 22 in 2019) and got about 35,000 votes. So a low votes-to-candidate ratio. Maybe in 2028/29...
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    BBC News Channel has Lab 33%, Con 24% in the bottom corner, although I don't know why they're rounding 33.7% down to 33%.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
    It would of course help if these tools who have Randy angry protests at Farage rallies etc would just stop. It’s not going to change a single mind against Farage but solidifies his position with his support as he can just say “see, they all want to shut down your voice by shutting me down.”

    The protests are more about the protesters than the target and they need to just stop and stop making Farage an outsider - he needs to be made mainstream so he’s just like all the others.
    He is also very good at dealing with hecklers and turning it to his advantage.
    Yes, like a coked up twat going to the Apollo thinking they are going to out heckle Jimmy Carr. Farage loves it and feeds off it.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,231
    Leon said:

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
    I really think he will now. They will say he was superhumanly lucid until yesterday when he had this awful stroke, nobody will have the bad taste to question this, and the caravan moves on. Yes I read that and the Axios article.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    Leon said:

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
    Some of the articles in the press the last couple of days are quite clear. The White House hasn't been protecting Biden, they have been hiding his problems, but they obviously couldn't do that during the debate, and without the teleprompters, recorded interviews, and aides giving him a nudge or a whipser in his ear, it has all blown up.

    I could just about see Biden continuing as President in such a fashion until inauguration of the next President, but I do not understand how anyone could think it right for him to run on the basis that he will serve all the way to January 2029. The Democrats are now taking US voters for fools.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Leon said:

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
    He will; only a matter of time now.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
    It would of course help if these tools who have Randy angry protests at Farage rallies etc would just stop. It’s not going to change a single mind against Farage but solidifies his position with his support as he can just say “see, they all want to shut down your voice by shutting me down.”

    The protests are more about the protesters than the target and they need to just stop and stop making Farage an outsider - he needs to be made mainstream so he’s just like all the others.
    He is also very good at dealing with hecklers and turning it to his advantage.
    He's a good politician. I don't mean that he has good ideas or is competent, although no doubt he has people who might think that too, but instead that he is pretty decent on TV, he has proven able to handle people in person, he can think on his feet. It doesn't work on everyone, but he's not an idiot and he's not without political skill.
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
    It would of course help if these tools who have Randy angry protests at Farage rallies etc would just stop. It’s not going to change a single mind against Farage but solidifies his position with his support as he can just say “see, they all want to shut down your voice by shutting me down.”

    The protests are more about the protesters than the target and they need to just stop and stop making Farage an outsider - he needs to be made mainstream so he’s just like all the others.
    The trouble with that kind of self aggrandizing idiot is that "you're not helping your own cause" is by definition not an argument likely to have much cutthrough with them. (See also tour de france spectators who are more mugging for the TV cameras than actually watching or supporting the riders...)
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,067
    In the spirit of the new Axel F movie after a hiatus of 40 years, then surely a small crumb of having Labour back in power is it's only fair that Lord Falconer be gifted a role somewhere in Government and then we can recommence his resignation vigil once again....
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 630

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    pm215 said:

    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    The BBC cuts from the construction of an actual Labour Cabinet to watch Nigel Farage shouting at hecklers. The BBC has, sadly, had a terrible election.

    Honestly, morons like you spreading crap like are what will kill the BBC. The live news cut from shots of people walking up Downing St at random intervals, with no news yet on their new roles, to an actual news story (Farage being heckled).

    That’s the right live news call. Obviously later on the actual package will be a condensed version of the Cabinet being formed and Farage will come much later.
    It would of course help if these tools who have Randy angry protests at Farage rallies etc would just stop. It’s not going to change a single mind against Farage but solidifies his position with his support as he can just say “see, they all want to shut down your voice by shutting me down.”

    The protests are more about the protesters than the target and they need to just stop and stop making Farage an outsider - he needs to be made mainstream so he’s just like all the others.
    The trouble with that kind of self aggrandizing idiot is that "you're not helping your own cause" is by definition not an argument likely to have much cutthrough with them. (See also tour de france spectators who are more mugging for the TV cameras than actually watching or supporting the riders...)
    I just realised I had an autocorrect to Randy instead of ranty but on reflection maybe some sort of Randy protest might put him off his balance.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,766
    edited July 5
    Tres said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    Yes, the tory volunteers I was speaking to at the count last night all hated Farage and his MAGA like grifting. If they walk away the party will cease to be an effective campaigning operation.
    It is Labour voters he is after now principally. The ones in places like Barnsley and Hartlepool who gave Starmer the benefit of the doubt this time, but will be ripe for picking in 2029 if Labour run into the sand.

    It isn't to say that there are not more Tory votes to be squeeezed, but most of the remaining Tory voters would more likely break for the Libdems and the rest are selfish rich Tossers who only care about stopping the state stealing their silver spoons.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Nunu5 said:

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
    Didn't the government release the land?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    If this game was ref'ed by the Turkish guy who ref the last England game, there would have been a sending off and 3 booking already.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    The Right Hon. Yvette Cooper MP is now Secretary of State for the Home Department.

    Who was it who kept claiming/ramping she was in jeopardy of losing her seat?

    She ended up with 47.5% of the vote in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, compared with Reform 29.1% and Conservative 15.0%.

    Meaning YC got more votes that Ref + Con combined = 44.1%
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372

    Have just noticed the national vote tallies 2019 > 2024
    Con 13.97m > 6.81m
    Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
    LD 3.70m > 3.50m

    Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...

    Cons won a lot fewer votes than Michael "longest suicide note" Foot in 1983, both by number and percentage share - 8.5 million and 28%


  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    boulay said:

    Leon said:


    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.

    It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.

    PR is a requirement now.
    I'd be extremely concerned.
    In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
    Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
    If it's a fairer system so be it.
    If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
    Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH

    NEW: At least five Tory MPs are expected to enter the next Tory leadership election

    Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat

    [@benrileysmith]


    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090

    If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?

    The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked

    They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right

    Patel?
    The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
    They don’t have to go all out fash. They just have to offer CREDIBLE plans to cut immigration, stop the boats, lower taxes, shrink the state, promote integration, deconstruct Woke. These should be basic Conservative principles - indeed they are

    The problem with the last 14 years of Tories is that they promised to do all these things then did the opposite, time and again

    All they need is a credible leader with conviction and principles, who will avow the above and tell us how she’s going to plausibly do it. They don’t need a Nazi, they just need credibility. Then the Tory abstainers and softer Reformers will return. And they win in 2028

    Yes, but that means no Braverman or anyone from the nutter wing of the party. Jeremy Hunt is the answer for them right now. Steady the ship, put together a policy base to win back voters in the SE/London suburbs/South/East and go from there.
    Hunt will be a wet pathetic disaster. He’s basically Lib Dem

    Ideally they should find a fresh face. Someone from the ranks, untainted by the last years of calamity. I’ve no idea if there is such a person

    But I predict they will likely follow your foolish advice and elect Hunt or Tugendhat. And from that point, Farage will start to destroy them
    No he won't. The people who voted Tory this time around are the core Tory voters, they aren't going to vote for Nige whatever the weather. The danger for the Tories right now is that they go down the copy Reform playbook and push away the people who stuck around. The way to increase the number of voters is to take a few select policies from Reform (I like the higher payroll tax rate for immigrant employees and maybe a manifesto commitment to reform the ECHR or leave if there's no reform) and push into winning back seats from the Lib Dems and Labour.
    I’m basically agreeing with you!

    But I don’t think Hunt is the man. He’s too spineless and lame and too tarnished
    I quite fancy Geoffrey Cox. He would show SKS at pmqs what forensic really looks like, if nothing else
    Agree - and better still anyone listening to the radio would think that Brian Blessed was leader of the Tories which would have to be good.
    Does anyone have a clip of him at the dispatch box in the dog days of the 2017 government? Shagger had fired half his MPs to not have a majority, was demanding an election and not getting it. Cox was roaring away at the dispatch box, screaming at the Commons to put itself out of its misery.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
    Some of the articles in the press the last couple of days are quite clear. The White House hasn't been protecting Biden, they have been hiding his problems, but they obviously couldn't do that during the debate, and without the teleprompters, recorded interviews, and aides giving him a nudge or a whipser in his ear, it has all blown up.

    I could just about see Biden continuing as President in such a fashion until inauguration of the next President, but I do not understand how anyone could think it right for him to run on the basis that he will serve all the way to January 2029. The Democrats are now taking US voters for fools.
    Yes. Exactly. And so they risk destroying the Democrat party AS WELL and all for a clearly demented President. It’s fucking bats

    Get rid of him ASAFP
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Leon said:

    This is all waffle. Been reading PB from 2021 to answer the question who really called peak Johnson at that time (a rebarbative poster called Ishmael) and the talk is all hur hur SKS loser, lab maj 7/1 no value, he won't last the year. Whereof we cannot speak thereof we must be silent. Whereof we can speak is Biden's accelerating decline. I think we have been lucky and he is going to implode in time to be replaced. If he isn't he is sure af going to implode during the campaign itself, giving Trump a landslide.

    Read this. Astonishing and alarming

    “In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I
    wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president:

    https://x.com/olivianuzzi/status/1808924240529535352?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    HE HAS TO QUIT
    He will; only a matter of time now.
    I thought he would a few days ago. I also thought that him doing so would also weaken Trump's chances - I laid some 1.73s on Trump. As it turns out a dreadful bet. The fact that Biden hasn't faced up to the truth has made a Trump victory more likely, and is continuing to do so.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Andy_JS said:

    Would anyone stake money on Tom Tugendhat winning a leadership contest? I don't think I would.

    He .looks like a character from Balamory
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    edited July 5

    The Right Hon. Yvette Cooper MP is now Secretary of State for the Home Department.

    Who was it who kept claiming/ramping she was in jeopardy of losing her seat?

    She ended up with 47.5% of the vote in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, compared with Reform 29.1% and Conservative 15.0%.

    Meaning YC got more votes that Ref + Con combined = 44.1%


    There was always going to be a Susan Hall moment

    Tbf, there were a number of weird broadcaster errors during the night. Bits of Suffolk going to the Greens and so on
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC News Channel has Lab 33%, Con 24% in the bottom corner, although I don't know why they're rounding 33.7% down to 33%.

    SKY says 33.8%

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/general-election-2024
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,766
    edited July 5

    Nunu5 said:

    Congratulations to @AngelaRayner on taking over such a wonderful department with a truly great team of civil servants - wishing her all the best on Levelling Up

    https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1809248714436825474

    Let's hope Labour actually do some real levelling up. Will HS2 to Manchester make a comeback?
    Didn't the government release the land?
    No. The early election nixed that. I suspect HS2 to Crewe will be back in short order. Not sure about Manchester.

    Ending it at Lichfield so you have six tracks (two HS2 and four Trent Valley) feeding into a two track bottleneck through Shugborough Tunnel between Colwich and Stafford is madness.

    And importantly phase 2a from Lichfield to Crewe already has parliamentary approval.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    I went to bed after Truss so missed this. Moment of the night for me - Baker has Balls and Osborne bang to rights:

    https://x.com/GMB/status/1809114873894228261
This discussion has been closed.