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Some more election stats – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Foxy said:

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
    If fewer people are banged up Suella will be writing articles in the Mail every five minutes.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    Foxy said:

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
    I think everyone in Labour knows we have had 14 years of quick fixes and look where we've ended up - in a far worse place than we could have been.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    They would have to grapple with the problem of people retiring early if this happens which is why the lifetime contributions limit was removed recently?. It may be easier for labour to just tax pension wealth when it is being withdrawn and/or upon inheritance.
    That's already been done. The 25% you can withdraw tax free is limited now and on inheritance the tax scheme was changed recently...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,128
    edited July 5
    Foxy said:

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
    Indeed, it's the opposite of the Blair/Blunkett approach, more like Rory Stewart's, and warms me.

    If Kendall can avoid similar popular gimmicks that don't work, in other areas like welfare , like sanctions, then we might really be starting to get somewhere.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    edited July 5

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    NI is deducted *before* other deductions such as pensions contribs IIRC.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    edited July 5

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    We are back to an argument I had earlier this week (with a payroll software provider) - employee pension contributions are already subject to NI but not Income tax...

    Edit to add - this is one reason why pensions are not subject to National Insurance on payment because they have (partly) already been taxed for NI on the way into the pension scheme.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Foxy said:

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
    If fewer people are banged up Suella will be writing articles in the Mail every five minutes.
    And they will have Reform howling for prisoners to be housed on disused military bases, one of their manifesto ideas. The thing is though that this gets a lot of airtime but doesn't really affect how people vote, which explains why it was not a big issue in the campaign.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
    If fewer people are banged up Suella will be writing articles in the Mail every five minutes.
    I have tired eyes and read that as “if fewer people banged Suella she will be writing articles in the Mail every five minutes”.

    This is what elections do to a man.
    Me too. I see now that you wrote "elections".
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    England last longer than Germany....

    As per 1918 and 1945.




    (Too soon?)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,116
    edited July 5
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    I'd say that distinction is a red herring tbh.

    Thursday, 1 May 1997: General Election.
    Tuesday 6 May 1997: B of E operational independence announced.
    June 1st 1997: B of E operational Independence comes into force.
    July 2nd 1997: Gordon Brown first budget introduced to Parliament.

    Scaremongering? Really?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    "Every Labour Prime Minister has now had a member of the Benn family serve in their Cabinet at some point"

    https://x.com/allanholloway/status/1809277229441921197
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Smart disciplined strategy leading to a staggeringly efficient vote.
    A very efficient vote under FPTP is very close to being a very inefficient vote under FPTP. Ultimately, Labour got lucky.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    We knew that Labour needed to appoint a shitton of working peers. Interesting that Starmer is utilising that as an opportunity to install external experts and heavy hitters to his government.

    Lord Timpson? Prison reform minister? Fantastic idea.

    I think Starmer recognises the wisdom of Douglas Hurd's aphorism "Prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse"

    Cutting the re-offending rate is the sort of productivity improvement that our criminal justice system needs.

    If this is a sign that Starmer isn't interested in populist gimmicks, but rather in the hard work of serious improvement then I may change my mind over him.
    If fewer people are banged up Suella will be writing articles in the Mail every five minutes.
    I have tired eyes and read that as “if fewer people banged Suella she will be writing articles in the Mail every five minutes”.

    This is what elections do to a man.
    Me too. I see now that you wrote "elections".
    Again, tired eyes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    Probably not right now, no.

    It’s a weird result. Labours huge poll leads were fake. Reform are shafted by being spread too thin and the Lib Dems are celebrating as if they had won the election…
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    NI is deducted *before* other deductions such as pensions contribs IIRC.
    Not if salary sacrifice is used to make the pension contribution IIRC.
  • escape_artist2escape_artist2 Posts: 6
    edited July 5

    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    This triumphalism is a bit icky. The last labour landslide led to the country being complicit in the murder of at least hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians, which was unaccountably fine with the sort of twat who mightily battled apartheid by not eating Cape oranges. Wrong sort of non white person, I suppose. And led to people still being in prison today on indefinite sentences for crimes worth 5 years max because of the insane undemocratic populism of good old Tony's government. I'm sure there's every hope this lot will be an improvement, but Yay! 1997 again! really doesn't sound too good.
    Now, now, don’t be mean to Benpointer. He was honest enough to post that he would be happy to pay more tax under Starmer. I am certain that we won’t hear a peep from him when those extra taxes aren’t just taking what he gave in charitable contributions and become meaningful amounts and levied on wealth and assets he thought wouldn’t t be caught up in tax rises, after all its others who will pay in this glorious starmerite new world.

    So allow him his gloat. He will gracefully not utter a word of complaint when the realities of a Labour gov aren’t what he thought and that all give are crap because they aren’t bespoke service providers for each and every person”s needs and desires.

    I predict Casino will have the last laugh.
    I think that Brexit cost my family around £5k in citizenship applications to get back the same rights as we had whilst Britain was in the EU. Annoying but one of those things. One thing I would say is that I am not too clear about the societal benefits Brexit achieved. Whereas tax rises under labour do have the potential of sorting structural problems out, ie building public housing, infrastructure etc if they can be done in such a way that does not scupper growth. That will be the test.
    Anyone who has supported Brexit or has supported those that gave us Brexit and complains about Labour tax rises is disingenuous.
    Rubbish. Brexit has not cost me money. Tax rises (depending on what they are) will. There is nothing disingenuous about that.
    My guy here with the profile photo looking like he walked off the set of American History X saying Brexit has no impact on tax revenues… let’s hope Labour have a serious plan on education reform

    And yeah first post, thanking this entire community for poll watching over the past few months, some very exciting debate, the occasional off pisteness but most of all being on the pulse enough to save me from having to download Twitter.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    edited July 5
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    I'd say that distinction is a red herring tbh.

    Thursday, 1 May 1997: General Election.
    Tuesday 6 May 1997: B of E operational independence announced.
    June 1st 1997: B of E operational Independence comes into force.
    July 2nd 1997: Gordon Brown first budget introduced to Parliament.

    Scaremongering? Really?
    The Bank of England is already independent. You were talking about tax changes which are budget items.

    And it's already been stated that the Budget will be in September / October because of the OBR lead time..

    Equally retrospective tax changes have been legal for over 14 years - why do you think David Davis / Ian Duncan Smith complained so much about the loan charge....
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Are you not a fan of FPTP Casino?
    Probably not right now, no.

    It’s a weird result. Labours huge poll leads were fake. Reform are shafted by being spread too thin and the Lib Dems are celebrating as if they had won the election…
    I’m not sure why the Lib Dem’s are so excited. They’ve come third in seats to what many posters have decried as the worst government, the worst party, a party that needs to be destroyed. A party smashed by the rise of reform, tactical voting. A party tarnished and tired from 14 years in power and they couldn’t beat them.

    They’ve come fourth in votes to real life Indiana Jones Nazis.

    It must be like being one of three men left alive in the world where one of them is Brad Pitt, one is you and the other looks like Cyril Smith and you discover that all the women who Brad Pitt has discarded would still rather shag Cyril’s twin than you. And you are still fist pumping at the sky shouting “I’m a fucking god”.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    carnforth said:

    "Every Labour Prime Minister has now had a member of the Benn family serve in their Cabinet at some point"

    https://x.com/allanholloway/status/1809277229441921197

    Presumably if that is true today then it was also true last week.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,116
    Listening to Any Questions.

    Matt Godwin comes across to me as spinning for Reform in some measure.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    NI is deducted *before* other deductions such as pensions contribs IIRC.
    Not if salary sacrifice is used to make the pension contribution IIRC.
    Employee contributions are subject to both Employer and Employee NI. Salary Sacrifice and Employer contributions are not however subject to NI..

    However, the risk is that it would discourage companies from contributing more than the absolutely bear minimum into pensions so I can't see any changes there...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,343
    boulay said:

    New Statesman mag, which arrived early yesterday, has piece about Bristol Central and Green fight for Labour seat.

    Concludes it will be v close - a few hundred votes either way.

    Green Carla has a 10K majority today.

    Life comes fast sometimes...

    Carla seems very vacuous, but my interest was peaked when I learned she was "pansexual". I wasn't entirely sure what that meant but I've had a good guess.
    She gets turned on by a Dutch oven?
    Carla Does Clifton
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,116
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Que? What have they said?
    I'd expect things as early as tomorrow, or perhaps Monday. And it will be from the time it is announced. I'd suggest sorting out tax cliff edges would be good to be done simultaneously.

    When El Gordo made the BoE independent, it was on the Monday.
    Um - it's already been said that the Budget is will be in September / October because thats the time frame the OBR requires. But nice to see you scaremongering already.
    I'd say that distinction is a red herring tbh.

    Thursday, 1 May 1997: General Election.
    Tuesday 6 May 1997: B of E operational independence announced.
    June 1st 1997: B of E operational Independence comes into force.
    July 2nd 1997: Gordon Brown first budget introduced to Parliament.

    Scaremongering? Really?
    The Bank of England is already independent. You were talking about tax changes which are budget items.

    And it's already been stated that the Budget will be in September / October because of the OBR lead time..

    Equally retrospective tax changes have been legal for over 14 years - why do you think David Davis / Ian Duncan Smith complained so much about the loan charge....
    Let's review this on the 1st of August.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,579
    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    Wrong.

    Pension contributions are not taxable income at the moment.

    If this is replaced with a 20p tax credit on pension contributions then pension contributions become taxable income.

    Example 1:

    Earn £30k pay £5k towards Pension, employer pays £3k towards your pension. Taxable income /£25k. Universal credit means tested on income of £20k.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £33k. £30k income and £3k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax but Universal Credit asssessed on taxable income now £33k not £25k and student loan parental contribution assessed on £33k not £25k.

    -------

    Example 2:

    Earn £55k pay £8k towards Pension, employer pays £5k towards your pension. Taxable income /£50k. All in 20% band so taxed at 20p and marriage allowance kept.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £68k. £60k income and £5k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax on earnings of up to £50k but £18k in 40% band and 20p credit only cancels half of it so £3,600 tax bill . Plus marriage allowance lost and 40% of child benefit lost.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    Pension contributions already are NI able unless you use salary sacrifice.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    In other random news, Milan Malpensa to be renamed Silvio Berlusconi airport.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    We are back to an argument I had earlier this week (with a payroll software provider) - employee pension contributions are already subject to NI but not Income tax...

    Edit to add - this is one reason why pensions are not subject to National Insurance on payment because they have (partly) already been taxed for NI on the way into the pension scheme.
    Not if your employer does it via salary sacrifice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,796

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Arrgh. 4 more years of Trump. We live in interesting times.

    A priority for the new government is to push arms production so we can keep Ukraine going if the US drops the ball.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    Wrong.

    Pension contributions are not taxable income at the moment.

    If this is replaced with a 20p tax credit on pension contributions then pension contributions become taxable income.

    Example 1:

    Earn £30k pay £5k towards Pension, employer pays £3k towards your pension. Taxable income /£25k. Universal credit means tested on income of £20k.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £33k. £30k income and £3k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax but Universal Credit asssessed on taxable income now £33k not £25k and student loan parental contribution assessed on £33k not £25k.

    -------

    Example 2:

    Earn £55k pay £8k towards Pension, employer pays £5k towards your pension. Taxable income /£50k. All in 20% band so taxed at 20p and marriage allowance kept.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £68k. £60k income and £5k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax on earnings of up to £50k but £18k in 40% band and 20p credit only cancels half of it so £3,600 tax bill . Plus marriage allowance lost and 40% of child benefit lost.
    Point taken. But this presupposes no other changes. We'll see.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    We are back to an argument I had earlier this week (with a payroll software provider) - employee pension contributions are already subject to NI but not Income tax...

    Edit to add - this is one reason why pensions are not subject to National Insurance on payment because they have (partly) already been taxed for NI on the way into the pension scheme.
    Not if your employer does it via salary sacrifice.
    True, but how would you identify what money has been paid into the pension pot via salary sacrifice and what part has already been subjected to NI?
  • Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    How can you ‘tax the shit’ out of something which is already taxed in line with the highest rate of tax (ie income)?

    Do tories think before they speak?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    Wrong.

    Pension contributions are not taxable income at the moment.

    If this is replaced with a 20p tax credit on pension contributions then pension contributions become taxable income.

    Example 1:

    Earn £30k pay £5k towards Pension, employer pays £3k towards your pension. Taxable income /£25k. Universal credit means tested on income of £20k.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £33k. £30k income and £3k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax but Universal Credit asssessed on taxable income now £33k not £25k and student loan parental contribution assessed on £33k not £25k.

    -------

    Example 2:

    Earn £55k pay £8k towards Pension, employer pays £5k towards your pension. Taxable income /£50k. All in 20% band so taxed at 20p and marriage allowance kept.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £68k. £60k income and £5k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax on earnings of up to £50k but £18k in 40% band and 20p credit only cancels half of it so £3,600 tax bill . Plus marriage allowance lost and 40% of child benefit lost.
    Won't happen - because why would you bother to save into a pension on that basis...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,485
    FF43 said:

    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
    A lot assumes that reform”s happiest hunting grounds next election are Tory voters. If Labour doesn’t take care of a big part of their trad vote then it’s easier oickings for reform than just gutting the Tories.

    Labour should in no way be complacent about reform being “my enemy”s enemy is my friend”.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    How can you ‘tax the shit’ out of something which is already taxed in line with the highest rate of tax (ie income)?

    Do tories think before they speak?
    Nothing stopping the government taxing something twice.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    MattW said:

    Listening to Any Questions.

    Matt Godwin comes across to me as spinning for Reform in some measure.

    Goodwin. Or was that an intentional slip?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    Pro_Rata said:

    In other random news, Milan Malpensa to be renamed Silvio Berlusconi airport.

    Zero chance your suitcase meets you on arrival, and not a safe airport for women to fly in to…
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    Wrong.

    Pension contributions are not taxable income at the moment.

    If this is replaced with a 20p tax credit on pension contributions then pension contributions become taxable income.

    Example 1:

    Earn £30k pay £5k towards Pension, employer pays £3k towards your pension. Taxable income /£25k. Universal credit means tested on income of £20k.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £33k. £30k income and £3k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax but Universal Credit asssessed on taxable income now £33k not £25k and student loan parental contribution assessed on £33k not £25k.

    -------

    Example 2:

    Earn £55k pay £8k towards Pension, employer pays £5k towards your pension. Taxable income /£50k. All in 20% band so taxed at 20p and marriage allowance kept.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £68k. £60k income and £5k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax on earnings of up to £50k but £18k in 40% band and 20p credit only cancels half of it so £3,600 tax bill . Plus marriage allowance lost and 40% of child benefit lost.
    Won't happen - because why would you bother to save into a pension on that basis...
    Isn't it obligatory now ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Its not up to him. Its up to the donors...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    edited July 5
    Wouldn't it be far more sensible to raise income tax rather than messing around with all this stuff.

    It does feel like New Labour all over again.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    FF43 said:

    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
    They need to think about non-voters, some LibDem voters, and the fact that a decent proportion of their actual voters this time round did it under sufferance and with no great love.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,796
    I do think that there is a good argument for restricting or eliminating the tax free lump sum on pensions. That money has gone in on the basis that it is deferred income which is why it gets tax relief at the time but is taxed on payment. Where does the tax free lump sum fit into that. Deferred income that is not taxed at all. And the money is substantial.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037

    Wouldn't it be far more sensible to raise income tax rather than messing around with all this stuff.

    It does feel like New Labour all over again.

    Yes. And anyway I just don’t believe Starmer is going to spend four years trying everything to win back professionals, and then immediately attack them with this.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    Wrong.

    Pension contributions are not taxable income at the moment.

    If this is replaced with a 20p tax credit on pension contributions then pension contributions become taxable income.

    Example 1:

    Earn £30k pay £5k towards Pension, employer pays £3k towards your pension. Taxable income /£25k. Universal credit means tested on income of £20k.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £33k. £30k income and £3k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax but Universal Credit asssessed on taxable income now £33k not £25k and student loan parental contribution assessed on £33k not £25k.

    -------

    Example 2:

    Earn £55k pay £8k towards Pension, employer pays £5k towards your pension. Taxable income /£50k. All in 20% band so taxed at 20p and marriage allowance kept.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £68k. £60k income and £5k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax on earnings of up to £50k but £18k in 40% band and 20p credit only cancels half of it so £3,600 tax bill . Plus marriage allowance lost and 40% of child benefit lost.
    Point taken. But this presupposes no other changes. We'll see.
    Sorting out the Universal Credit ought to be straightforward enough (if they want to do that).

    The tax liability when the change in the way it is done tips you into a higher band or over a cliffedge is much more complex and is I suspect the only reason Hunt didn't do it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Trump is going to win if he stays in.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    boulay said:

    FF43 said:

    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
    A lot assumes that reform”s happiest hunting grounds next election are Tory voters. If Labour doesn’t take care of a big part of their trad vote then it’s easier oickings for reform than just gutting the Tories.

    Labour should in no way be complacent about reform being “my enemy”s enemy is my friend”.
    Farage has already said quite bluntly that he is going for Labour voters in 2029.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790

    AlsoLei said:

    A couple of interesting appointments:

    James Timpson OBE
    @JamesTCobbler
    has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation) in the Ministry of Justice
    @MoJGovUK
    .

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742

    Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
    @SciTechgovuk

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809292602124173456

    Timpson is an excellent choice for job. I'd assumed he was a Tory, though, like his brother...
    I met them a couple of times at charity functions. Got the impression that their thing was old fashioned Liberalism charity - if you have money, build schools and hospices and setup charities to do so. See Peabody etc etc
    Are the Timpsons Quakers?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    boulay said:

    FF43 said:

    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
    A lot assumes that reform”s happiest hunting grounds next election are Tory voters. If Labour doesn’t take care of a big part of their trad vote then it’s easier oickings for reform than just gutting the Tories.

    Labour should in no way be complacent about reform being “my enemy”s enemy is my friend”.
    It does assume that Reform's happiest hunting grounds are Tory voters as current data indicates. Fair point, but you are putting up a hypothetical problem for Labour against an actual and very large problem for the Tories.

    As a general comment my enemy's enemy is actually my friend in the zero sum world of elections.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    So he's fighting on? And fighting to win?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    DavidL said:

    I do think that there is a good argument for restricting or eliminating the tax free lump sum on pensions. That money has gone in on the basis that it is deferred income which is why it gets tax relief at the time but is taxed on payment. Where does the tax free lump sum fit into that. Deferred income that is not taxed at all. And the money is substantial.

    I don’t necessarily disagree but I have two thoughts:

    a) they always paid tax on it at sources; and

    b) let’s check where the lump sums tend to go- we don’t want to stop them if they get spent on things like building works.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Did he follow that with ho ho ho?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,097

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Smart disciplined strategy leading to a staggeringly efficient vote.
    A very efficient vote under FPTP is very close to being a very inefficient vote under FPTP. Ultimately, Labour got lucky.
    It was the plan. Target the votes where needed. Worry less about the nice-to-haves. The locals showed it working and the GE confirmed it (but more so). Labour were smart and disciplined.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Wouldn't it be far more sensible to raise income tax rather than messing around with all this stuff.

    It does feel like New Labour all over again.

    That's built in already via fiscal drag.

  • RobD said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    How can you ‘tax the shit’ out of something which is already taxed in line with the highest rate of tax (ie income)?

    Do tories think before they speak?
    Nothing stopping the government taxing something twice.
    That would be a wealth tax, not a tax on savings income. Why are we creating straw bogey men on day 0? Nobody would be more appalled than I, as a ‘lefty’, if starmer announced some standing charge on savings. It’s not going to happen.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Portugal knocking on the door...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    DavidL said:

    I do think that there is a good argument for restricting or eliminating the tax free lump sum on pensions. That money has gone in on the basis that it is deferred income which is why it gets tax relief at the time but is taxed on payment. Where does the tax free lump sum fit into that. Deferred income that is not taxed at all. And the money is substantial.

    Already limited as I reported earlier. And you can't really change the tax regime of money already in the pension pot so it's another item where change is impossible.

    Basically there is sod all you can do to pensions that won't have serious consequences elsewhere.

    It would be way more interesting looking at DanNeidle's list of tax reform ideas https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1808919260300710187 and how they may raise rather than reduce revenue..

    Oh and fix council tax (which I know is in that list)
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    National insurance is another form of income tax too, so if income is made taxable then NI would apply too which is a difference that needs taking into account.
    We are back to an argument I had earlier this week (with a payroll software provider) - employee pension contributions are already subject to NI but not Income tax...

    Edit to add - this is one reason why pensions are not subject to National Insurance on payment because they have (partly) already been taxed for NI on the way into the pension scheme.
    Not if your employer does it via salary sacrifice.
    True, but how would you identify what money has been paid into the pension pot via salary sacrifice and what part has already been subjected to NI?
    They don't.

    At the moment. Some people pay NI on their pension contributions. Others (mostly those in large corporations with the resources to set up the salary sacrifice) don't and neither do their employers.

    Its a bit unfair to be honest.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    So he's fighting on? And fighting to win?
    He's turning up the volume.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    RobD said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    How can you ‘tax the shit’ out of something which is already taxed in line with the highest rate of tax (ie income)?

    Do tories think before they speak?
    Nothing stopping the government taxing something twice.
    That would be a wealth tax, not a tax on savings income. Why are we creating straw bogey men on day 0? Nobody would be more appalled than I, as a ‘lefty’, if starmer announced some standing charge on savings. It’s not going to happen.

    Why not do both? Nunu5’s comment wasn’t specific about how they would be taxed, but they certainly think savers will be.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,543
    This game has got better!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777
    DavidL said:

    I do think that there is a good argument for restricting or eliminating the tax free lump sum on pensions. That money has gone in on the basis that it is deferred income which is why it gets tax relief at the time but is taxed on payment. Where does the tax free lump sum fit into that. Deferred income that is not taxed at all. And the money is substantial.

    It gets people of that age spending. Removing the lump sum would hurt the economy quite badly, home renovations and car sales will both be hit. Our economy doesn't have enough spare capacity to take that kind of demand out of it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Smart disciplined strategy leading to a staggeringly efficient vote.
    A very efficient vote under FPTP is very close to being a very inefficient vote under FPTP. Ultimately, Labour got lucky.
    It was the plan. Target the votes where needed. Worry less about the nice-to-haves. The locals showed it working and the GE confirmed it (but more so). Labour were smart and disciplined.
    And losing a few seats to independents was a price worth paying in order to make many more gains elsewhere.

    Although Jonathan Ashworth may disagree.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    In his opening statement the new Health Secretary Wes Streeting has said the stance of his department will change.

    The government will be honest about the challenges facing the country and serious about tackling them, he has said.

    Streeting adds that “from today the policy of this department is that the NHS is broken”.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,097

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can't work out who I'd prefer to lose

    Spain because rhey are the better team = more of a threat

    Or Germany because they are the hosts so it would be schadenfreudian

    I'd favour us over either in the final.

    Labour landslide
    England Euros
    Emma Wimbo
    Harris

    It's that sort of spooky special July.
    BTW you know that, in the end, I really did vote for Starmer?

    I could never work out whether you were geninely horrified by the idea I would do that, or playing some secret game whereby you wanted me to vote Starmer, so you enticed me do to it by telling me it would annoy you

    In the end I thought "Fuck it, give the boring old twit a chance", and voted for Starmer

    Also his wife is genuinely hot and I don't mind seeing her on my screen every so often

    You can tell I am a deep thinker
    It's my gift and my curse that I see through your shtick. The game here is to (falsely) say you voted Labour rather than Reform just so as to taint our landslide. It hasn't worked.
    "Taint our landslide".

    Lol. You got 33.8% of the vote on 59% turnout.

    It's like trying to taint a few tins of Heinz soup that have slipped down a grassy knoll.
    Smart disciplined strategy leading to a staggeringly efficient vote.
    If you mean the LDs, then yes.
    Them too. Pincer movement.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,060
    71 LD MPs

    71

    Dafuq???

    (Scratches head in amazement)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Foxy said:

    Wouldn't it be far more sensible to raise income tax rather than messing around with all this stuff.

    It does feel like New Labour all over again.

    That's built in already via fiscal drag.

    To a degree but I would look at raising the basic income tax percentage. Not least with the cut in employee NI.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    viewcode said:

    71 LD MPs

    71

    Dafuq???

    (Scratches head in amazement)

    Will be 72 tomorrow.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    biggles said:

    FF43 said:

    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
    They need to think about non-voters, some LibDem voters, and the fact that a decent proportion of their actual voters this time round did it under sufferance and with no great love.
    I suspect there isn't a short cut for the Tories from the traditional route of getting previous Labour voters to switch. Maybe wrong about that.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    carnforth said:

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    So he's fighting on? And fighting to win?
    He's turning up the volume.
    Just like a premier league manager whos lost the last six matches. And we all know how that ends.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,579

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Did he follow that with ho ho ho?

    At least he didn't do it as a soundbite, otherwise the bit following 'let me say this as clearly as I can' might not have been intelligible.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Trump is going to win if he stays in.
    The incredible thing about the debate performance is that since then Biden's circle and the Democratic Party have not only failed to reassure the electorate but they've made things worse with their "he had a cold", "it was jetlag" after 12 days, "he needs to be in bed by 8 pm". Biden himself has made further gaffes reinforcing the image of someone who simply can not be expected to do the job for much longer.

    I have criticised Sunak's political ineptness but he now has some challengers.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    I do think that there is a good argument for restricting or eliminating the tax free lump sum on pensions. That money has gone in on the basis that it is deferred income which is why it gets tax relief at the time but is taxed on payment. Where does the tax free lump sum fit into that. Deferred income that is not taxed at all. And the money is substantial.

    I don’t necessarily disagree but I have two thoughts:

    a) they always paid tax on it at sources; and

    b) let’s check where the lump sums tend to go- we don’t want to stop them if they get spent on things like building works.
    Or paying off/down mortgages so that ongoing living costs are less.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.
    Its the classic man running away from a bear scenario though.

    Just need to run faster than the other guy, and boy did they do that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Please can one of these sides win in 90 minutes. I need my bed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    edited July 5
    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    FF43 said:

    The "we will win in 2029 because we will take over the Reform vote" thing will only happen if the Tories either crush Reform totally or Reform decide to go away of their own will. Reform have no intention going away right now and trying to crush Reform is high risk. Half way house is the worst of all worlds. Dilemma!
    They need to think about non-voters, some LibDem voters, and the fact that a decent proportion of their actual voters this time round did it under sufferance and with no great love.
    I suspect there isn't a short cut for the Tories from the traditional route of getting previous Labour voters to switch. Maybe wrong about that.
    Oh that too, but I would advise them to also start from the fact that even some* of their rock bottom 25% core only voted for them while holding their noses. Stabilise, consolidate, then worry about expanding.

    *perhaps all?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    carnforth said:

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    So he's fighting on? And fighting to win?
    He's turning up the volume.
    Just like a premier league manager whos lost the last six matches. And we all know how that ends.
    He has the full backing of the board...

    (Meaning sacked next game)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    edited July 5

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    Yes, which won't do much for investment, which won't do much for growth. But they need the cash, big time.
    I think aligning taxing capital gains with income tax and taxing dividends at the same rate is nailed on.

    Maybe reduce the annual ISA limit

    And reduce the pensions annual allowance to £30,000

    And the big one. Restrict pensions tax relief to 20%

    Lots of revenue raising opportunities for LAB!
    I will be immediately handing in my notice and retiring if they do that.

    It also will have huge repercussions for the low paid and employers.

    It means ending the tax free status of income put into pensions and giving a 20p tax credit.

    So suddenly all pension contributions become taxable and employer contributions become benefits in kind. So taxable pay far higher, so far more money means tested for Universal Credit and a slew of extra people find themselves in the 40p band and over the marriage allowance, child benefit withdrawal / childcare withdrawal cliffedge.
    Hang on, the basic rate of income tax *is* 20p in the pound. 20%. Won't make any difference to low paid.

    And this is in any case typical Tory doomcasting.
    Wrong.

    Pension contributions are not taxable income at the moment.

    If this is replaced with a 20p tax credit on pension contributions then pension contributions become taxable income.

    Example 1:

    Earn £30k pay £5k towards Pension, employer pays £3k towards your pension. Taxable income /£25k. Universal credit means tested on income of £20k.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £33k. £30k income and £3k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax but Universal Credit asssessed on taxable income now £33k not £25k and student loan parental contribution assessed on £33k not £25k.

    -------

    Example 2:

    Earn £55k pay £8k towards Pension, employer pays £5k towards your pension. Taxable income /£50k. All in 20% band so taxed at 20p and marriage allowance kept.

    New regime. Taxable income is now £68k. £60k income and £5k taxable benefits (employer contributions. 20p tax credit cancels out the extra tax on earnings of up to £50k but £18k in 40% band and 20p credit only cancels half of it so £3,600 tax bill . Plus marriage allowance lost and 40% of child benefit lost.
    Point taken. But this presupposes no other changes. We'll see.
    Sorting out the Universal Credit ought to be straightforward enough (if they want to do that).

    The tax liability when the change in the way it is done tips you into a higher band or over a cliffedge is much more complex and is I suspect the only reason Hunt didn't do it.
    Oh , agreed abiout sharp transitions and stupid anomalies.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.
    So will Steve Bray now go after Labour and the unfairness of FPTP? Thought not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777
    Yes, as I pointed out earlier today, Labour have won just just over 20% of the electorate and under 10m votes. It's a landslide, but not as we've seen them. It is going to make Labour very timid over the next few years and fundamentally the country are going to feel the same as it has over the last 3 years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,543
    viewcode said:

    71 LD MPs

    71

    Dafuq???

    (Scratches head in amazement)

    And they have as much role in Government for five years as being, well, a side-lines observing paddle-boarder.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,097
    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Trump is going to win if he stays in.
    Harris is betting fav for the Nom now and I agree with that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,796
    edited July 5
    Really good piece in Politico about Starmer: https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-results-keir-starmer-profile-britain-incoming-prime-minister-complex-unknowable-aggrieved/

    We just don't know him. I can't think of any political leader in modern times that has been such an enigma by the time he or she took the most senior position in government.

    Edit, an example:
    "“So much of politics has been a spectacle,” Baldwin told me. “Tony Blair with paper castles in the air that didn’t get beyond artist’s impression. [Boris] Johnson set fire to whatever we had. Starmer moves the building blocks around. ‘You can have one here and you can put another one here and maybe we should turn it around.’ It’s boring to watch but at the end of it, you get a fucking house.”
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.
    Its the classic man running away from a bear scenario though.

    Just need to run faster than the other guy, and boy did they do that.
    My friend really upset some fat Americans with that one on safari. They did not take the idea that my thin, fit friend would simply need to outpace the waddling fatties to escape the clutches of the nasty lions. Tour guide was in hysterics.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    In his opening statement the new Health Secretary Wes Streeting has said the stance of his department will change.

    The government will be honest about the challenges facing the country and serious about tackling them, he has said.

    Streeting adds that “from today the policy of this department is that the NHS is broken”.

    Could Bridget Philipson follow up by saying, 'from today, the philosophy of this department is that all personnel within it are lying drunken subhuman twats who are so ignorant they make Cummings look clever?'

    If she does, we might start to get somewhere with the mess in education.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.

    When Cameron became PM of a majority govt in 2015 on 36.9% of the vote I don't remember quite so much concern about vote shares.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour are going to tax the shit out of savers aren't they?

    How can you ‘tax the shit’ out of something which is already taxed in line with the highest rate of tax (ie income)?

    Do tories think before they speak?
    Well, no, savings are not already taxed in line with the highest rate of tax (ie income). Firstly there's an additional savings allowance if your other income is less than £17,500, meaning you could have up to £5,000 additional personal allowance if your olny income is savings interest.

    More importantly you don't pay NI on savings (or other unearned income).

    The net effect of these two features is that a person earning £40,000pa would pay c. £7,680 in ICT and NI (20% ICT + 8% NI above £12570).

    A person receiving £40,000pa from savings interest, and no other income would pay £4,486 ICT.

    However, I am not sure bringing them into line (which should be done) really counts as 'taxing the shit out of savers'.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/joebiden/status/1809310761933525304

    Let me say this as clearly as I can:

    I’m the sitting President of the United States.

    I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

    I’m staying in the race.

    Trump is going to win if he stays in.
    Harris is betting fav for the Nom now and I agree with that.
    Could it be that the Bidens out of sheer spite try to fix it for Harris and not give a chance to those 'disloyal' Democrats who've tried to get him to stand down.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.
    So will Steve Bray now go after Labour and the unfairness of FPTP? Thought not.
    And given SKS has ruled out rejoining the EU/SM/CU will he continue his REJOIN protests and target Labour politicians?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    viewcode said:

    71 LD MPs

    71

    Dafuq???

    (Scratches head in amazement)

    And they have as much role in Government for five years as being, well, a side-lines observing paddle-boarder.
    The same as every other opposition party.

    In the meantime consolidating those seats, maybe 72 by tomorrow evening.

    I guess those Brixhamites might not turn out for you next time either.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, as I pointed out earlier today, Labour have won just just over 20% of the electorate and under 10m votes. It's a landslide, but not as we've seen them. It is going to make Labour very timid over the next few years and fundamentally the country are going to feel the same as it has over the last 3 years.
    They ought to feel timid, but we’ve seen on here certain labour superfans don’t recognise this yet. A landslide built on a vote of 45% or more of the vote is substantially different from one from 34%. The latter is a lot more susceptible to being eroded.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    GIN1138 said:

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.
    So will Steve Bray now go after Labour and the unfairness of FPTP? Thought not.
    And given SKS has ruled out rejoining the EU/SM/CU will he continue his REJOIN protests and target Labour politicians?
    Let him have a couple of days off first.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    eek said:

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.

    When Cameron became PM of a majority govt in 2015 on 36.9% of the vote I don't remember quite so much concern about vote shares.
    He didn’t have a 176 majority. Essentially untrammelled power.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,796
    It is seriously disappointing that 2 such fine sides can once again not produce a goal between them in more than 80 minutes. I really don't know what has gone wrong at these Euros but a spectacle of football it isn't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, as I pointed out earlier today, Labour have won just just over 20% of the electorate and under 10m votes. It's a landslide, but not as we've seen them. It is going to make Labour very timid over the next few years and fundamentally the country are going to feel the same as it has over the last 3 years.
    They ought to feel timid, but we’ve seen on here certain labour superfans don’t recognise this yet. A landslide built on a vote of 45% or more of the vote is substantially different from one from 34%. The latter is a lot more susceptible to being eroded.
    Not for 5 years, and not by a party who have just had a record low vote in a GE.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    eek said:

    He's right of course. The result is utterly mental. A landslide off a third of the vote.

    When Cameron became PM of a majority govt in 2015 on 36.9% of the vote I don't remember quite so much concern about vote shares.
    He didn’t have a 176 majority. Essentially untrammelled power.
    A majority is a majority - the rest is just internal party management....
This discussion has been closed.