That was then. This is now. I ask again. Which political party is a position to overturn a 170 majority in five years?
Asking the wrong question. Who has a voter coalition so clearly fragile they could lose a majority of 170 in five years?
Labour have wolves at the door everywhere - green for the anti-semites and trots, RFM for the working class, and Con/LD for the middleclasses+. Providing they deliver they could be fine, but it doesn't feel that different to 2019.
Yeah but that applies now. You've gotta choose one. Which one?
Constituency by constituency comparison table of various MRPs and models with the exit poll (and real results as available), for those interested in where the predictions differed from each other and from reality: https://jonskeet.uk/election2024/interactive?colour
If Labour is seen to get a huge majority on fewer votes/ lower vote share than Corbyn in 2019 I do think there will be pressure to move leftward in government. Sure, the big story will be Reform overperforming - but the way to beat Reform will be to do left wing politics and not to lean into immigrant bashing.
Or listen to sensible concerns on immigration. A Conservative party that did this would be 10 points or more higher in the polls right now. A Labour party that ignores it, ignores it at all our peril.
Immigration will bring down Labour in either 5 or 10 years time. They can't help themselves bring in as many of their core voting demographics as possible.
Starmer is a lucky General, though, because even if Labour does nothing, then net immigration will come right down because of (a) the raised income threshold, and (b) students coming to the end of their visas and returning home.
That was then. This is now. I ask again. Which political party is a position to overturn a 170 majority in five years?
Asking the wrong question. Who has a voter coalition so clearly fragile they could lose a majority of 170 in five years?
Labour have wolves at the door everywhere - green for the anti-semites and trots, RFM for the working class, and Con/LD for the middleclasses+. Providing they deliver they could be fine, but it doesn't feel that different to 2019.
Yeah but that applies now. You've gotta choose one. Which one?
What do you mean? All three could go wrong at once - Hamas rumbles on, Labour can't get the economy growing so raid taxes and keep immigration high - all of a sudden all of their marginal majorities are in trouble.
Whatever it looks like the next election will feature 16/17 year olds.
I highly doubt its photo id. Much more like it will be the voters of the "none of the above" party.
If Labour try to gerrymander staying in power by allowing kids to vote, it will be deeply immoral.
At least they’re here and do or will pay their way here, unlike the hundreds of thousands of expats who haven’t set foot - in terms of residence or tax paying - in the country for years that the Tories have sent votes to!
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
Turn to Reform and the Tories can aspire to win 13 seats themselves.
You win elections by being a big tent, not reaching for extremes.
On what grounds is over 40% for Tories and Reform extreme?
Decent speeches from winner and loser in Swindon South. Isn't democracy great?
Indeed... we await the less gracious ones.
I think both Hall and Khan were utterly shameful in their speeches following the London result. Street and Parker in the West Midlands - despite it actually being FAR closer - were extremely gracious and it was good to see.
Whatever it looks like the next election will feature 16/17 year olds.
I highly doubt its photo id. Much more like it will be the voters of the "none of the above" party.
If Labour try to gerrymander staying in power by allowing kids to vote, it will be deeply immoral.
If Labour go through with votes at 16 they (a) aren't taking note of RFM in their heartlands, and (b) haven't talked to any teachers that have ran a mock election in school. There's a reason why RFM have bought lots of advertising on streamja and other youth-dominated goal clip sites.
Jeez why the hell can’t the BBC at least give us the declarations when there’s not a lot of seats declaring . It’s not like we’re overwhelmed with excitement.
Whatever it looks like the next election will feature 16/17 year olds.
I highly doubt its photo id. Much more like it will be the voters of the "none of the above" party.
If Labour try to gerrymander staying in power by allowing kids to vote, it will be deeply immoral.
If Labour go through with votes at 16 they (a) aren't taking note of RFM in their heartlands, and (b) haven't talked to any teachers that have ran a mock election in school. There's a reason why RFM have bought lots of advertising on streamja and other youth-dominated goal clip sites.
All else equal, more Labour and Reform votes are good for Labour. When Reform get up to 33% and start meeting people like generals and the OBR, we can reconsider that.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
Turn to Reform and the Tories can aspire to win 13 seats themselves.
You win elections by being a big tent, not reaching for extremes.
On what grounds is over 40% for Tories and Reform extreme?
The Tories got what they got because they are not Reform.
Abandon your current voters to chase after the Reform phantom, and you'll lose your current voters.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
Turn to Reform and the Tories can aspire to win 13 seats themselves.
You win elections by being a big tent, not reaching for extremes.
On what grounds is over 40% for Tories and Reform extreme?
You just cannot reconcile "smash the system" RefUKers with moderate, conservative Conservatives. You think you've hit your floor with the moderates but you're wrong - there are plenty who will have just about swallowed it today but won't again.
Suspect you'll learn this the hard way - good news for the Lib Dems.
Comments
You've gotta choose one.
Which one?
NEW: Steve Baker tells me that he expects to lose his seat of Wycombe overnight and will be swept away in the Labour tsunami
https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
Nice thing about the next five years is seeing the shoe on the other foot, even if it's still a shady shoe.
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1809003315398574115
Exit poll is 96% /4% Lab/SNP
I think both Hall and Khan were utterly shameful in their speeches following the London result. Street and Parker in the West Midlands - despite it actually being FAR closer - were extremely gracious and it was good to see.
I think Labour will beat Blair's 1997 majority.
A fairytale I know.
https://x.com/Anton1Ferreira/status/1807427443583492422
Abandon your current voters to chase after the Reform phantom, and you'll lose your current voters.
NEW THREAD
She obviously doesn't read PB
Suspect you'll learn this the hard way - good news for the Lib Dems.
NEW THREAD