As we await the first result – politicalbetting.com

System · July 4

As we await the first result – politicalbetting.com

Labour types slightly disappointed with staggeringly large majority; Cons delighted to be alive with potentially worst result in history. Expectations are weird things

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tlg86 · July 4

First.

Pulpstar · July 4

I don't think voters in Barnsley give a monkeys tbh.

carnforth · July 4

Farage to add an MP pension to his MEP pension?

mwadams · July 4

Please let the Tories win Clacton.

BatteryCorrectHorse · July 4

It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

GIN1138 · July 4

carnforth said:
Farage to add an MP pension to his MEP pension?

It's always about the money...

WhisperingOracle · July 4

mwadams said:
Please let the Tories win Clacton.

Reform to win Eric Clapton.

Greens to win Bournemouth.

pigeon · July 4

Continue to be very encouraged by the return of the Liberal Democrats. They will be very valuable indeed if they can dig into those Southern gains and get as hard to shift as they traditionally were pre-Coalition.

Sunil_Prasannan · July 4

Pulpstar said:
I don't think voters in Barnsley give a monkeys tbh.

That would be Hartlepool.

williamglenn · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

The centre ground under Starmer will be the furthest right it’s been for over a decade.

Scott_xP · July 4

@donaeldunready

Whisper it but Rishi Sunak is making an incredible sandwich

turbotubbs · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

Totally agree. Sadly the centrists were driven out for their lack of Brexit purity.

numbertwelve · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

Prepare yourself for 3-4 years of “well if you add CON+REF they’re an unstoppable force”.

I think the danger for the Tories will be that every time they try and tack to the centre REF will drag them right back.

biggles · July 4

He we go. Movement in the first counts.

Andy_JS · July 4

Another MRP abysmal failure: their suggestion the Tories would do well in the outer London suburbs.

tlg86 · July 4

https://x.com/Samfr/status/1808985661057478724

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
Exit poll seats by liklihood:

80%+ Lab 369
80%+ Con 80
80%+ LD 45
80%+ Reform 5
80%+ SNP 4
80%+ PC 3
80%+ Green 2

Too close to call 124 seats

dixiedean · July 4

Have the Mackems won?
Gutted!!

Nunu5 · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.

BatteryCorrectHorse · July 4

williamglenn said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
The centre ground under Starmer will be the furthest right it’s been for over a decade.

Eh?

Labour have probably won an election on a manifesto far to the left of Blair. Railway nationalisation for a start.

IanB2 · July 4

BFE LDs 59 seats or fewer is 2.68

Monksfield · July 4

Spot on from Neil Kinnock

Mexicanpete · July 4

David TC Davies is suggesting he has lost Monmouth which I think was a hold on the exit poll.

IanB2 · July 4

Scott_xP said:
@donaeldunready

Whisper it but Rishi Sunak is making an incredible sandwich

He appears to be inside one?

AlsoLei · July 4

Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28

Eabhal · July 4

tlg86 said:
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1808985661057478724

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
Exit poll seats by liklihood:

80%+ Lab 369
80%+ Con 80
80%+ LD 45
80%+ Reform 5
80%+ SNP 4
80%+ PC 3
80%+ Green 2

Too close to call 124 seats

Worth staying up! Look at that SNP number. Crazy.

GIN1138 · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

This is a VERY odd election if Labour have got a landslide on 36% of the vote and it would be extraordinary for these odd circumstances to be repeated in 2029 so where that leaves us in five years remains to be seen...

Scott_xP · July 4

The picture editor FTW

Andy_JS · July 4

Mexicanpete said:
David TC Davies is suggesting he has lost Monmouth which I think was a hold on the exit poll.

Very surprised the exit poll suggesting that.

williamglenn · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

williamglenn said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
The centre ground under Starmer will be the furthest right it’s been for over a decade.
Eh?

Labour have probably won an election on a manifesto far to the left of Blair. Railway nationalisation for a start.

Cutting immigration, staying out of the single market, prioritising British workers. It's a turn away from the internationalism that the Tories are known for.

rkrkrk · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Another MRP abysmal failure: their suggestion the Tories would do well in the outer London suburbs.

Maybe we should wait for results before declaring which polls have bene correct?

FrancisUrquhart · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

I think the public have collectively probably come to the right overall conclusion. Labour get a big majority, ball is in there court to sort out the mess, put the Tories / SNP on blast but not totally killed them off Tories and given more influence to Lib Dems.

It sets things up that Labour screw up, it wouldn't take a huge amount of switching to see their majority go, so not totally Sion Simon, we will never be defeated, stuff.

Monksfield · July 4

Predicting both Wights for Labour then

Andy_JS · July 4

Tory share

North -24%
Midlands -29%
South -23%
London -16%
Scotland -10%
Wales -18%

Doubling your seat tally with a 10% drop is lucky.

BatteryCorrectHorse · July 4

Lib Dems 12%, per the exit poll. It looks like they have Labour in somewhere in the mid or high 30s, Reform 16 or 17%, Greens about 7% (my calculations based on the bits and pieces the BBC has shown)

https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/1808986616934891626

Since we can add Reform to the Tory vote, add the Lib Dems to the Labour vote and surprise surprise you have over 40%.

That's how it works, right? lol

CatMan · July 4

Is it possible that calling the election now has actually saved the Tories some seats, because some of the recent rise in Reform's share of the vote is partly coming from Labour, which wouldn't have happened later in the year with Farage off in America?

nico679 · July 4

Labour might have suffered because of the narrative that it was a done deal . So the normal Green to Labour shift close to the election didn’t happen .

Pulpstar · July 4

Devon South 79% Lib Dem
Tories 21%

Torbay Yellow

biggles · July 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Lib Dems 12%, per the exit poll. It looks like they have Labour in somewhere in the mid or high 30s, Reform 16 or 17%, Greens about 7% (my calculations based on the bits and pieces the BBC has shown)

https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/1808986616934891626

Since we can add Reform to the Tory vote, add the Lib Dems to the Labour vote and surprise surprise you have over 40%.

That's how it works, right? lol

I don’t follow?

Andy_JS · July 4

nico679 said:
Labour might have suffered because of the narrative that it was a done deal . So the normal Green to Labour shift close to the election didn’t happen .

Owen Jones was saying the opposite today, vote Green because Labour are bound to win easily.

Scott_xP · July 4

@LOS_Fisher
Absence of gongs for any Tory aides beyond Liam Booth-Smith is already sparking fury

One special adviser messages to say they're angry not to be recognised, while a Downing Street aide is said by friends to be 'incandescent' with rage

Suspect this will accelerate the recriminations over the party's crushing defeat

eristdoof · July 4

WhisperingOracle said:

mwadams said:
Please let the Tories win Clacton.
Reform to win Eric Clapton.

Greens to win Bournemouth.

Labour to hold Eric Morecombe.

RandallFlagg · July 4

Still staggered at the Reform winning the two Barnsley seats prediction

Sunil_Prasannan · July 4

Here we go!

carnforth · July 4

Declaration!

Casino_Royale · July 4

If the Exit Poll is right I should be between £650-£800 up depending on if Corbyn wins and Mordaunt wins.

Can't remember if I bet on Dorset West for the LDs or not. Hope I did.

algarkirk · July 4

Predict Tories to do worse than exit poll.

Mexicanpete · July 4

Andy_JS said:
Tory share

North -24%
Midlands -29%
South -23%
London -16%
Scotland -10%
Wales -18%

Doubling your seat tally with a 10% drop is lucky.

They are saying the exit polls are less accurate in Scotland.

Eabhal · July 4

Result!

IanB2 · July 4

First declaration Houghton & Sund S

Reform clear of the Tories in a solid second

Dumbosaurus · July 4

AlsoLei said:
Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28

The "big move" is on about 50p. There's nowt in the market.

turbotubbs · July 4

Pulpstar said:
Devon South 79% Lib Dem
Tories 21%

Torbay Yellow

That’ll be the sewage discharge…

El_Capitano · July 4

Retreating for now…

carnforth · July 4

51.2% turnout

MisterBedfordshire · July 4

Reform - Sunderland South 11,668

Game on

Taz · July 4

51.2% turnout !

FrancisUrquhart · July 4

Dumbosaurus said:

AlsoLei said:
Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28
The "big move" is on about 50p. There's nowt in the market.

Alister Jack getting his big betting money on?

Monksfield · July 4

Well done Bridget but 51% turnout!

Sunil_Prasannan · July 4

Brigitte re-elected but Reform second in Houghton!

Cookie · July 4

Whoah! 11000 for Reform!

pigeon · July 4

Bloody Hell, you see where that Reform projection has come from now.

PedestrianRock · July 4

Reform on 11k in Bridget's seat

tlg86 · July 4

green 1723 4%
con 5514 14%
ld 2290 6%
lab 18847 47%
reform 11668 29%

DougSeal · July 4

Nunu5 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.

The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.

Flatlander · July 4

REF 11k in Sunderland. Hmm.

Skidderton · July 4

There is a special place in hell for Returning Officers who refuse to read out which party the candidates represent

nico679 · July 4

Poor turnout in Sunderland South . Only 51% .

MikeL · July 4

Sunderland turnout 51%!

Foxy · July 4

51% turnout in Sunderland South

must have helped with the counting

Leon · July 4

C'mon BIG NIGE

numbertwelve · July 4

That Reform figure is stunning. Uh oh.

SeaShantyIrish2 · July 4

Sky "journalist" just fucked up broadcast of first declaration. Thanks NOT.

CatMan · July 4

Reform second in Sunderland South? I fear for the future

Christopher · July 4

PedestrianRock said:
Reform on 11k in Bridget's seat

Excellentvresult for Reform. Labour barely up.

Taz · July 4

Acceptance speeches are so dull.

Nunu5 · July 4

MikeL said:
Sunderland turnout 51%!

Just pathetic

MisterBedfordshire · July 4

I said that the first declaration would be more significant than the exit poll

IanB2 · July 4

I remember a time when Labour getting less than half the vote in Sunderland would have been a dreadful result for them

BatteryCorrectHorse · July 4

Reform vote very worrying for Labour.

I am getting similar warnings to the result in 2017.

Paristonda · July 4

I think this performance is enough for Reform to be a significant force in future politics, but with the tories on 131 they are too high to consider merging with them. An electoral pact could be possible, but reform and tories are really quite far apart on a lot of stuff. Tories could end up losing more to the LDs next time if they do so. Think a sort of unofficial tactical voting between the two could be quite possible though

Nunu5 · July 4

No love for Keir in Sunderland

Pro_Rata · July 4

Lab +7%

Drutt · July 4

AlsoLei said:
Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28

That market's pretty thin - £20 would have moved it that far.

biggles · July 4

How many good second places are Reform getting…..?

johnt · July 4

Curtis on reform was interesting. The seat projection comes from adding the probabilities. That works fine when you have a mix of probabilities but not if they are all the same. If Reform have a 10% chance in 130 seats it is it really likely that they will win 13 seats? It will be interesting to see, but maybe the projection is optimistic for them.

Andy_JS · July 4

My forecast in Houghton & Sunderland South was Lab 18000, Ref 14750, Con 5000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.

The result was Lab 18847, Ref 11668, Con 5514, LD 2290, Grn 1723.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=1283546375#gid=1283546375

Artist · July 4

The Electoral Calculus for Houghton was Lab 46.3%, Reform 27.5%

So pretty much as expected.

Eabhal · July 4

MisterBedfordshire said:
I said that the first declaration would be more significant than the exit poll

There is going to be some silly money on Reform based on this. DYOR.

Taz · July 4

At least she can pronounce Houghton.

Stark_Dawning · July 4

CatMan said:
Reform second in Sunderland South? I fear for the future

Yes. Makes the Labour win there a hollow mockery.

tlg86 · July 4

Still a swing to Labour there. Con plus Brexit got 47% last time, only 43% this time. Labour 47% up from 41%.

Leon · July 4

DougSeal said:

Nunu5 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.

A hard right Reform-Tory party will win in 2029. if Starmer fucks up. which he will

As I have told this site a trillion times, the British are not excpetional, we are merely following the western patten

FrankBooth · July 4

Priti Patel would seem an odd one.

Casino_Royale · July 4

Have politicians worked out the British people want immigration brought under control yet?

Nunu5 · July 4

DougSeal said:

Nunu5 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.

I think we need to move past right or left. Many reform voters are left wing on many issues

TheScreamingEagles · July 4

Scott_xP said:
@LOS_Fisher
Absence of gongs for any Tory aides beyond Liam Booth-Smith is already sparking fury

One special adviser messages to say they're angry not to be recognised, while a Downing Street aide is said by friends to be 'incandescent' with rage

Suspect this will accelerate the recriminations over the party's crushing defeat

They should calm the fuck down.

Rishi's got a resignation honours list to come where they will get their gongs.

RandallFlagg · July 4

Christ, if Starmer doesn't deliver over the next 5 years...

DavidL · July 4

CatMan said:
Reform second in Sunderland South? I fear for the future

Anyone who thinks Reform are just a threat to the Tories is deluding themselves. Tory vote just collapsed.

FrancisUrquhart · July 4

IanB2 said:
I remember a time when Labour getting less than half the vote in Sunderland would have been a dreadful result for them

Less than half....more like less than 90% ;-)

biggles · July 4

Andy_JS said:
My forecast in Houghton & Sunderland South was Lab 18000, Ref 14750, Con 5000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.

The result was Lab 18847, Ref 11668, Con 5514, LD 2290, Grn 1723.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=1283546375#gid=1283546375

Hmmmm

state_go_away · July 4

Reform are going to win more than 13 seats. Vindication for Farage

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As we await the first result – politicalbetting.com

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