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As we await the first result – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,645
edited July 2024 in General
As we await the first result – politicalbetting.com

Labour types slightly disappointed with staggeringly large majority; Cons delighted to be alive with potentially worst result in history. Expectations are weird things

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,117
    First.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,004
    I don't think voters in Barnsley give a monkeys tbh.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,834
    Farage to add an MP pension to his MEP pension?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    carnforth said:

    Farage to add an MP pension to his MEP pension?

    It's always about the money...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,538
    mwadams said:

    Please let the Tories win Clacton.

    Reform to win Eric Clapton.

    Greens to win Bournemouth.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think voters in Barnsley give a monkeys tbh.

    That would be Hartlepool.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    The centre ground under Starmer will be the furthest right it’s been for over a decade.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,705
    @donaeldunready

    Whisper it but Rishi Sunak is making an incredible sandwich
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,974
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    Totally agree. Sadly the centrists were driven out for their lack of Brexit purity.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,815
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    Prepare yourself for 3-4 years of “well if you add CON+REF they’re an unstoppable force”.

    I think the danger for the Tories will be that every time they try and tack to the centre REF will drag them right back.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,829
    He we go. Movement in the first counts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,102
    edited July 2024
    Another MRP abysmal failure: their suggestion the Tories would do well in the outer London suburbs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,117
    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1808985661057478724

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    Exit poll seats by liklihood:

    80%+ Lab 369
    80%+ Con 80
    80%+ LD 45
    80%+ Reform 5
    80%+ SNP 4
    80%+ PC 3
    80%+ Green 2

    Too close to call 124 seats
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,489
    Have the Mackems won?
    Gutted!!
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    williamglenn said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    The centre ground under Starmer will be the furthest right it’s been for over a decade.
    Eh?

    Labour have probably won an election on a manifesto far to the left of Blair. Railway nationalisation for a start.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,667
    BFE LDs 59 seats or fewer is 2.68
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Spot on from Neil Kinnock
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,711
    David TC Davies is suggesting he has lost Monmouth which I think was a hold on the exit poll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,667
    Scott_xP said:

    @donaeldunready

    Whisper it but Rishi Sunak is making an incredible sandwich

    He appears to be inside one?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,527
    Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,617
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1808985661057478724

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    Exit poll seats by liklihood:

    80%+ Lab 369
    80%+ Con 80
    80%+ LD 45
    80%+ Reform 5
    80%+ SNP 4
    80%+ PC 3
    80%+ Green 2

    Too close to call 124 seats

    Worth staying up! Look at that SNP number. Crazy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    This is a VERY odd election if Labour have got a landslide on 36% of the vote and it would be extraordinary for these odd circumstances to be repeated in 2029 so where that leaves us in five years remains to be seen...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,705
    The picture editor FTW


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,102
    Mexicanpete said:

    David TC Davies is suggesting he has lost Monmouth which I think was a hold on the exit poll.

    Very surprised the exit poll suggesting that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    williamglenn said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    The centre ground under Starmer will be the furthest right it’s been for over a decade.
    Eh?

    Labour have probably won an election on a manifesto far to the left of Blair. Railway nationalisation for a start.
    Cutting immigration, staying out of the single market, prioritising British workers. It's a turn away from the internationalism that the Tories are known for.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,770
    Andy_JS said:

    Another MRP abysmal failure: their suggestion the Tories would do well in the outer London suburbs.

    Maybe we should wait for results before declaring which polls have bene correct?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,028
    edited July 2024
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    I think the public have collectively probably come to the right overall conclusion. Labour get a big majority, ball is in there court to sort out the mess, put the Tories / SNP on blast but not totally killed them off Tories and given more influence to Lib Dems.

    It sets things up that Labour screw up, it wouldn't take a huge amount of switching to see their majority go, so not totally Sion Simon, we will never be defeated, stuff.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Predicting both Wights for Labour then
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,102
    edited July 2024
    Tory share

    North -24%
    Midlands -29%
    South -23%
    London -16%
    Scotland -10%
    Wales -18%

    Doubling your seat tally with a 10% drop is lucky.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Lib Dems 12%, per the exit poll. It looks like they have Labour in somewhere in the mid or high 30s, Reform 16 or 17%, Greens about 7% (my calculations based on the bits and pieces the BBC has shown)

    https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/1808986616934891626

    Since we can add Reform to the Tory vote, add the Lib Dems to the Labour vote and surprise surprise you have over 40%.

    That's how it works, right? lol
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Labour might have suffered because of the narrative that it was a done deal . So the normal Green to Labour shift close to the election didn’t happen .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,004
    Devon South 79% Lib Dem
    Tories 21%

    Torbay Yellow
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,829
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Lib Dems 12%, per the exit poll. It looks like they have Labour in somewhere in the mid or high 30s, Reform 16 or 17%, Greens about 7% (my calculations based on the bits and pieces the BBC has shown)

    https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/1808986616934891626

    Since we can add Reform to the Tory vote, add the Lib Dems to the Labour vote and surprise surprise you have over 40%.

    That's how it works, right? lol

    I don’t follow?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,102
    nico679 said:

    Labour might have suffered because of the narrative that it was a done deal . So the normal Green to Labour shift close to the election didn’t happen .

    Owen Jones was saying the opposite today, vote Green because Labour are bound to win easily.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,705
    @LOS_Fisher
    Absence of gongs for any Tory aides beyond Liam Booth-Smith is already sparking fury

    One special adviser messages to say they're angry not to be recognised, while a Downing Street aide is said by friends to be 'incandescent' with rage

    Suspect this will accelerate the recriminations over the party's crushing defeat
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    WhisperingOracle said:

    mwadams said:

    Please let the Tories win Clacton.

    Reform to win Eric Clapton.

    Greens to win Bournemouth.
    Labour to hold Eric Morecombe.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    Still staggered at the Reform winning the two Barnsley seats prediction
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    Here we go!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,834
    Declaration!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    If the Exit Poll is right I should be between £650-£800 up depending on if Corbyn wins and Mordaunt wins.

    Can't remember if I bet on Dorset West for the LDs or not. Hope I did.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,711
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory share

    North -24%
    Midlands -29%
    South -23%
    London -16%
    Scotland -10%
    Wales -18%

    Doubling your seat tally with a 10% drop is lucky.

    They are saying the exit polls are less accurate in Scotland.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,332
    Predict Tories to do worse than exit poll.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,617
    Result!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,667
    edited July 2024
    First declaration Houghton & Sund S

    Reform clear of the Tories in a solid second
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 881
    AlsoLei said:

    Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28

    The "big move" is on about 50p. There's nowt in the market.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,974
    Pulpstar said:

    Devon South 79% Lib Dem
    Tories 21%

    Torbay Yellow

    That’ll be the sewage discharge…
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Retreating for now…


  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,834
    51.2% turnout
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Reform - Sunderland South 11,668

    Game on
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,028
    Dumbosaurus said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28

    The "big move" is on about 50p. There's nowt in the market.
    Alister Jack getting his big betting money on?
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,649
    51.2% turnout !
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Well done Bridget but 51% turnout!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    Brigitte re-elected but Reform second in Houghton!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,875
    Whoah! 11000 for Reform!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Bloody Hell, you see where that Reform projection has come from now.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 589
    Reform on 11k in Bridget's seat
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,117
    green 1723 4%
    con 5514 14%
    ld 2290 6%
    lab 18847 47%
    reform 11668 29%
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,818
    Nunu5 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
    The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,224
    REF 11k in Sunderland. Hmm.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Poor turnout in Sunderland South . Only 51% .

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Sunderland turnout 51%!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,705
    edited July 2024
    51% turnout in Sunderland South

    must have helped with the counting

  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,582
    C'mon BIG NIGE
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,815
    That Reform figure is stunning. Uh oh.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sky "journalist" just fucked up broadcast of first declaration. Thanks NOT.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,395
    Reform second in Sunderland South? I fear for the future :(
  • ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    PedestrianRock said:

    Reform on 11k in Bridget's seat

    Excellentvresult for Reform. Labour barely up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,649
    Acceptance speeches are so dull.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    MikeL said:

    Sunderland turnout 51%!

    Just pathetic
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    I said that the first declaration would be more significant than the exit poll
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,667
    I remember a time when Labour getting less than half the vote in Sunderland would have been a dreadful result for them
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Reform vote very worrying for Labour.

    I am getting similar warnings to the result in 2017.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    I think this performance is enough for Reform to be a significant force in future politics, but with the tories on 131 they are too high to consider merging with them. An electoral pact could be possible, but reform and tories are really quite far apart on a lot of stuff. Tories could end up losing more to the LDs next time if they do so. Think a sort of unofficial tactical voting between the two could be quite possible though
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    No love for Keir in Sunderland
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    Lab +7%
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    AlsoLei said:

    Sudden big move towards Corbyn on betfair - now in to 1.28

    That market's pretty thin - £20 would have moved it that far.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    Curtis on reform was interesting. The seat projection comes from adding the probabilities. That works fine when you have a mix of probabilities but not if they are all the same. If Reform have a 10% chance in 130 seats it is it really likely that they will win 13 seats? It will be interesting to see, but maybe the projection is optimistic for them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,829
    How many good second places are Reform getting…..?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The Electoral Calculus for Houghton was Lab 46.3%, Reform 27.5%

    So pretty much as expected.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,617
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    I said that the first declaration would be more significant than the exit poll

    There is going to be some silly money on Reform based on this. DYOR.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,649
    At least she can pronounce Houghton.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,263
    CatMan said:

    Reform second in Sunderland South? I fear for the future :(

    Yes. Makes the Labour win there a hollow mockery.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,117
    Still a swing to Labour there. Con plus Brexit got 47% last time, only 43% this time. Labour 47% up from 41%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,582
    DougSeal said:

    Nunu5 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
    The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.
    A hard right Reform-Tory party will win in 2029. if Starmer fucks up. which he will

    As I have told this site a trillion times, the British are not excpetional, we are merely following the western patten
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Priti Patel would seem an odd one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Have politicians worked out the British people want immigration brought under control yet?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    DougSeal said:

    Nunu5 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.

    But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?

    The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.

    Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
    The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.
    I think we need to move past right or left. Many reform voters are left wing on many issues
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,407
    Scott_xP said:

    @LOS_Fisher
    Absence of gongs for any Tory aides beyond Liam Booth-Smith is already sparking fury

    One special adviser messages to say they're angry not to be recognised, while a Downing Street aide is said by friends to be 'incandescent' with rage

    Suspect this will accelerate the recriminations over the party's crushing defeat

    They should calm the fuck down.

    Rishi's got a resignation honours list to come where they will get their gongs.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    Christ, if Starmer doesn't deliver over the next 5 years...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,214
    CatMan said:

    Reform second in Sunderland South? I fear for the future :(

    Anyone who thinks Reform are just a threat to the Tories is deluding themselves. Tory vote just collapsed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,028
    edited July 2024
    IanB2 said:

    I remember a time when Labour getting less than half the vote in Sunderland would have been a dreadful result for them

    Less than half....more like less than 90% ;-)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,829
    Andy_JS said:

    My forecast in Houghton & Sunderland South was Lab 18000, Ref 14750, Con 5000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.

    The result was Lab 18847, Ref 11668, Con 5514, LD 2290, Grn 1723.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=1283546375#gid=1283546375

    Hmmmm
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,857
    edited July 2024
    Reform are going to win more than 13 seats. Vindication for Farage
This discussion has been closed.

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