These reform encroachments are in seats held by labour and didn't fall in 2019, it could be even more interesting in former 'red wall' seats that fell to the tories in 2019.
Aberdeen South is held by Stephen Flynn, leader of the SNP in Westminster. The exit poll has 44% chance of a Tory gain, 39% Labour. Flynn looks like he may be in 3rd.
Washington and Sunderland South should be Reform's best result in the NorthEast. I have a fiver on them at 14-1, think it's lost but will be interesting to see how close they are.
RiP the Tories...not quite a quick death,. but reduced to a fringe movement representing some wealthy areas...but there is no way the Tories are coming back from this
Labour landslide then but for Tories it could have been worse. 131 seats is better than most of the MRP forecasts. Good for the LDs back to Charles Kennedy levels, abysmal for SNP collapsing to just 10. Positive for Reform with 13 seats forecast and already second in both northern seats declared
RiP the Tories...not quite a quick death,. but reduced to a fringe movement representing some wealthy areas...but there is no way the Tories are coming back from this
Oh give over.
The Tories will come back when they can appeal to the centre of the country once more and the pendulum swings again.
It'll probably take about 14 years, but it'll happen.
RiP the Tories...not quite a quick death,. but reduced to a fringe movement representing some wealthy areas...but there is no way the Tories are coming back from this
Too soon to say that. Tories were meant to be heading to their second Boris term...m
Who on Earth did any of you expect to come second in B+A or H+SS? Is that really a surprise? The extent of Tory unpopularity up here has been underestimated. Cos it must have been them you'd thought. If not, who?
Zahawi soiling himself on C4. He hasn't understood that the Conservatives are being spanked by Reform and is still fighting Labour. He seems to think Reform are the Tories friends. They really are not.
This must be the most negative media coverage of a landslide election win ever.
Another reason there should be a ban on polls during an election campaign.
You can't ban polling, you can only ban publication of polling. If you ban publication of polling then it's only those people and organisations wealthy enough to commission them that will have knowledge that the general public cannot have and they will use that to make money off the rest of us.
This will tee up tactical voting on the right next time.
ie in Red Wall, lots of Con 2024 voters will go Reform in 2029.
It depends what happens to Reform, They aren’t grounded in these seats with stable, experienced memberships, and if the parliamentary party tears itself apart or contains a brace of O’Maras, or Farage gets tired and pisses off, the whole thing could go pop.
Can the Tories outperform the exit poll and squeak past the 156??
Too early to say. We've had two results where the Tories have done less badly than expected according to the exit poll, but these are Labour holds not Con defences. Let's see if they've done less badly than expected in their defences as well when those results begin to come through.
Jeremy Hunt chose the wrong seat. He is going to lose in Goldalming and Ash but Farnham and Bordon is much closer and the LibDem candidate is quite weak, though the LD will just win probably I reckon Hunt would have beaten him.
No. SNP won 6 seats in 2005. There was an independence referendum less than ten years later. The direction of travel is in the opposite direction right now, but that can change back again.
True, but the SNP's guiding stars are more friendly with the clink than your neighbourhood dealer, and they're about to lose a massive amount of their revenue despite being broke.
Zahawi soiling himself on C4. He hasn't understood that the Conservatives are being spanked by Reform and is still fighting Labour. He seems to think Reform are the Tories friends. They really are not.
They all believe this is a family falling out. It’s not. Reform are a different animal altogether - a gaggle of conspiracists and Putinists whose entire raison d’être is to divide and weaken the west.
This must be the most negative media coverage of a landslide election win ever.
Another reason there should be a ban on polls during an election campaign.
You can't ban polling, you can only ban publication of polling. If you ban publication of polling then it's only those people and organisations wealthy enough to commission them that will have knowledge that the general public cannot have and they will use that to make money off the rest of us.
I don't think you'd want to, but I don't inherently see why you couldn't ban carrying out polling if you wanted to. If you did none of the reputable companies would touch it with a bargepole, and the nature of conducting a poll is that you would be contacting thousands of people to tell them you're committing a criminal offence, which is usually not advisable.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 14m Said it before, will say it again. The Supermajority strategy was insanity. Actively gave Tory voters licence to vote Reform. Madness.
Zahawi soiling himself on C4. He hasn't understood that the Conservatives are being spanked by Reform and is still fighting Labour. He seems to think Reform are the Tories friends. They really are not.
They all believe this is a family falling out. It’s not. Reform are a different animal altogether - a gaggle of conspiracists and Putinists whose entire raison d’être is to divide and weaken the west.
Yup. I'd vote Conservative in a trice to keep Reform out. These people are dangerous.
This must be the most negative media coverage of a landslide election win ever.
Another reason there should be a ban on polls during an election campaign.
You can't ban polling, you can only ban publication of polling. If you ban publication of polling then it's only those people and organisations wealthy enough to commission them that will have knowledge that the general public cannot have and they will use that to make money off the rest of us.
I don't think you'd want to, but I don't inherently see why you couldn't ban carrying out polling if you wanted to. If you did none of the reputable companies would touch it with a bargepole, and the nature of conducting a poll is that you would be contacting thousands of people to tell them you're committing a criminal offence, which is usually not advisable.
Would you ban political parties from getting Voter ID? Just set up a shell political party and commission a poll.
Can the Tories outperform the exit poll and squeak past the 156??
Too early to say. We've had two results where the Tories have done less badly than expected according to the exit poll, but these are Labour holds not Con defences. Let's see if they've done less badly than expected in their defences as well when those results begin to come through.
That’s a good point . The interest is on Con defences .
Comments
And it isn't Blyth. It's Blyth and Ashington. Don't leave the Bronx out. Or we'll whack ya
This is just like all those people who wrote Labour off in 2019.
Curtice suggesting Reform numbers so far have not matched the Exit Poll expectations and 13 could be a bit toppy.... early days
Another reason there should be a ban on polls during an election campaign.
https://x.com/yuanyi_z/status/1808995238771396775
Good for the LDs back to Charles Kennedy levels, abysmal for SNP collapsing to just 10. Positive for Reform with 13 seats forecast and already second in both northern seats declared
The Tories will come back when they can appeal to the centre of the country once more and the pendulum swings again.
It'll probably take about 14 years, but it'll happen.
ie in Red Wall, lots of Con 2024 voters will go Reform in 2029.
One special adviser messages to say they're angry not to be recognised, while a Downing Street aide is said by friends to be 'incandescent' with rage
Suspect this will accelerate the recriminations over the party's crushing defeat
https://x.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1808986436286259323
They wanted to be rewarded for failure?
We'll see.
Is that really a surprise?
The extent of Tory unpopularity up here has been underestimated.
Cos it must have been them you'd thought. If not, who?
Yes.
Will they?
I doubt it.
I had great bets selling turnout beneath 60% a few hours ago, and then killed it all because I got the impression instead it was "brisk".
Like reading tea leaves.
has traded >1.3 in last couple of minutes.
Not with point 2.
Fucking mental...
Probably another generation now before the SNP come back.
I've had a very small taste
Hint: It's better for them if they've gone backwards.
@DPJHodges
·
14m
Said it before, will say it again. The Supermajority strategy was insanity. Actively gave Tory voters licence to vote Reform. Madness.
@georgeeaton
How has Labour won a landslide majority with c. 36-37% of the vote?
1. Stunning vote efficiency (the McSweeney strategy).
2. Double-digit lead over the Tories.
Yeeeahhhhhhh wellllllllllll IIIIIIIIIII hhhavvvveeeee beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnn hearrrrrrringggggggg....
Outside Scotland these are unimpressive results for Labour. Barely inched forwards.
Looks to me like MiC forecast Lab 31.9 in Blyth, and they actually got 47% which looks way out?
However Reform may have beaten Richard Holden in Basildon and Billericay