Good evening from the P&J live in Aberdeen. Must say that the exit poll greatly entertained. I had posted that Survation poll and been laughed out of town by the SNP.
Interesting analysis from a top Tory: "The Conservative MP numbers are better than some expected, it is not clinically dead but need a massive surgery to recover. The Reform numbers are higher than I thought. That's the problem of a divided Right. "But this is all down to Rishi and the Conservative Ministers who thought massive immigration, massive spending and it's associated inflation and taxation were a good way to run the country." More analysis and reporting now at @GBNEWS . 10:37 PM · Jul 4, 2024 · 31.7K Views
Is photo ID the dog that didn’t bark? I thought it was a terrible idea because it would disenfranchise people for no reason, but maybe it was actually just a terrible idea because it wasted money achieving sod all.
Looks like the Tories are absolutely nowhere in the Northeast tbh. The romance lasted a single election.
Yes.
I wonder where the Tories would be if Reform slipped back to 5-7% and just in the NE and places like that, tbh.
My guess is they'd regain 20 or so seats from the LDs and maybe the same from Labour too once the ejection revulsion in their heartlands has worked its way through.
The baseline for them at the next election, all things being equal, should really be near 200 seats or so.
I think the Tory vote will collapse further next election where they're a long way behind Reform.
Interesting analysis from a top Tory: "The Conservative MP numbers are better than some expected, it is not clinically dead but need a massive surgery to recover. The Reform numbers are higher than I thought. That's the problem of a divided Right. "But this is all down to Rishi and the Conservative Ministers who thought massive immigration, massive spending and it's associated inflation and taxation were a good way to run the country." More analysis and reporting now at @GBNEWS . 10:37 PM · Jul 4, 2024 · 31.7K Views
In what way? Reform have underperformed here. Very simplistically, Labour have increased their vote share, and combined CON + REF are down. I don’t get your analysis.
How on Earth are the Tories meant to get sackloads of votes back from pissed off Reform voters in the North, and recover heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in the South, AT THE SAME TIME?
Answers on a postcard.
Maybe just let Reform mop up the anti-Labour vote in Labour seats, and then look at confidence and supply.
Going into an election with exciting posters of the tiny Tory leader in Farage's pocket, a la Miliband and Sturgeon.
I know these are not typical seats, but anyone else thinking this might show this could be an election that is more proportional swing than uniform swing?
Blyth prediction is Lab 18750, Ref 10500, Con 8000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.
Green>Lab?
I've overestimated turnout everywhere I suspect, wishful thinking that it would only drop by around 1.5% overall when it's clearly going to be down considerably more than that.
If the Exit Poll is right, this feels like Nigel Farage’s dream scenario. He’s got enough MPs to make a racket in Westminster, and the party he shares the closest space with could be reduced to a long period of soul searching. He’s both in the tent, and pissing wherever he wants
The goddamn Sky announcer did it again, talked over the declaration.
Shut the fuck up! Especially as you appear to know next to nothing.
Especially as she talked over the most statistically interesting bit. Honestly, Sky are utter fuckwits. I'd turn over but I'm a guest ata friend's house.
If the Exit Poll is right, this feels like Nigel Farage’s dream scenario. He’s got enough MPs to make a racket in Westminster, and the party he shares the closest space with could be reduced to a long period of soul searching. He’s both in the tent, and pissing wherever he wants
The Conservatives job will be to bury Farage not welcome him in.
The goddamn Sky announcer did it again, talked over the declaration.
Shut the fuck up! Especially as you appear to know next to nothing.
Especially as she talked over the most statistically interesting bit. Honestly, Sky are utter fuckwits. I'd turn over but I'm a guest ata friend's house.
Sky sacked off many of their best people 5 or so years ago.
In what way? Reform have underperformed here. Very simplistically, Labour have increased their vote share, and combined CON + REF are down. I don’t get your analysis.
If there are small swings in safe Lab seats, that does rather mean larger swings elsewhere
Blyth prediction is Lab 18750, Ref 10500, Con 8000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.
Green>Lab?
I've overestimated turnout everywhere I suspect, wishful thinking that it would only drop by around 1.5% overall when it's clearly going to be down considerably more than that.
Very shy Tory syndrome. So shy about it they did NOT vote.
What did you expect? They are down on both exit polls. William Glenn has been telling us Reform would be winning Northern seats. They are nowhere near. The Con vote has collapsed up here. That is the story v expectations against 2 samples.
Blyth prediction is Lab 18750, Ref 10500, Con 8000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.
Green>Lab?
I've overestimated turnout everywhere I suspect, wishful thinking that it would only drop by around 1.5% overall when it's clearly going to be down considerably more than that.
Comments
The Conservative said the party will NOT be winning seats like Stirling or Aberdeen South.
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1808978362599121123
"But this is all down to Rishi and the Conservative Ministers who thought massive immigration, massive spending and it's associated inflation and taxation were a good way to run the country." More analysis and reporting now at
@GBNEWS
.
10:37 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
31.7K
Views
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1808978430836314296
Reform a solid second on >10,000
A chunk of Tory will have gone to Reform.
A chunk of Labour will have gone to Reform.
A chunk of Tory will have gone to Labour.
Part C exceeds Part B.
Unless we do a "Logan's Run" or "Soylent Green"
I voted for a winner.
con 6,121 15%
green 1,960 5%
reform 10,857 27%
ld 1,433 4%
All very genteel, Summer garden party here.
Shut the fuck up! Especially as you appear to know next to nothing.
A little difficult to tune into.
Check out Ian Lavery.
Work tomorrow, night all and enjoy!
Stephen Collins
@stephen_collins
Having Kwarteng and Dorries on the C4 panel is like having a true crime podcast presented by the actual fucking murderers
If the Exit Poll is right, this feels like Nigel Farage’s dream scenario. He’s got enough MPs to make a racket in Westminster, and the party he shares the closest space with could be reduced to a long period of soul searching. He’s both in the tent, and pissing wherever he wants
I don't think they will piece together a majority in one term. I think their direction of travel will help the Lib Dems retain southern seats.
Honestly, Sky are utter fuckwits. I'd turn over but I'm a guest ata friend's house.
Lab holding up.
2 out of 2 seats so far if I'm reading @Pulpstar spreadsheet accurately, Lab has exceeded the MRPs forecast?
They are down on both exit polls.
William Glenn has been telling us Reform would be winning Northern seats. They are nowhere near.
The Con vote has collapsed up here. That is the story v expectations against 2 samples.
Do not do it. Abort.
https://x.com/lmaginnis91/status/1808983092138553375?s=61
*Labour numbers in line with exit poll
*Reform a little less than expected
*Tory less bad than expected
Matter of fine details rather than major issues with the model
Turnout is down
Sky and BBC a bit shit (except when His Excellency Sir John Curtice is on screen.)