There is a real possibility IMHO that every seat where Reform comes second will be won by them at the next election
no chance
Why? I hope they don't, but after five years of Labour, disgruntled Labour and Tory voters could easily switch to them if they think they can win the seat.
It looks like some of the RefUK candidates that might win will be wallopers of the first order
Thought to be in with a realistic chance in a couple of the Barnsley seats, where one of their candidates has already been disowned by Farage for interesting views.
Think I may have read that on here earlier, actually.
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
There are some nasty articles standing for Reform but I certainly wouldn’t disregard their voters or characterise them as ‘jackboot brigade’. Reform, who I am certainly no fan of, are talking to people on the level who are sick of politics. I can understand the motivation to vote for them.
I still feel that a lot of this goes back to the expenses scandal.
It is like Nigel says. they are just saying what a lot of people think. In the end you either have a democracy or you don't. If you want to live in a democracy you have to come to terms with things like the reform party.
John McDonnell on channel 4 right now saying Labour have to be far more radical than the manifesto let on - and hinting that Keir will be.
I think McDonnell is right, to be honest. The media and political class are so dead set already on Labour’s majority being flimsy and set to be overturned in 5 years, that the party would be well advised to get on with some properly transformational policies.
There is a real possibility IMHO that every seat where Reform comes second will be won by them at the next election
no chance
Don't see it either. Unless the UK genuinely splits into a multiparty system (which I doubt while there is FPTP), the pendulum will always swing back to 2 major parties: one centre right, the other centre left. If the Tories opt for far right, either Labour or the Libs will become centre right (the other taking the role of centre left within what by then is the Overton window).
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
I think we can trace the discontent back many years. Some areas have obviously never recovered from de-industrialisation, and we have had 20 years of very poor growth. The political settlement isn't working for chunks of people and they see the centrist Labour and Tories having failed them. We then got Brexit, kick over the apple cart, Corbyn, lurch to the left, I have easy fixes to these problems, Boris, get Brexit done properly and big state-ism, and now Farage, just stop all the immigrants.
I've written on here before about historical Labour Party corruption at all stratas of government post war. T. Dan Smith etc. while the peasants starved. Labour were punished last time by the Tories who in turn were no less corrupt than Labour and now these voters are to rely on an absolute shower of corrupt Faragista s***.
John McDonnell on channel 4 right now saying Labour have to be far more radical than the manifesto let on - and hinting that Keir will be.
I think McDonnell is right, to be honest. The media and political class are so dead set already on Labour’s majority being flimsy and set to be overturned in 5 years, that the party would be well advised to get on with some properly transformational policies.
It depends what radical means. Lots of radical things would be bad, but some radical things are good. And most of those radical good things take longer than 5 years to deliver success.
John McDonnell on channel 4 right now saying Labour have to be far more radical than the manifesto let on - and hinting that Keir will be.
I think McDonnell is right, to be honest. The media and political class are so dead set already on Labour’s majority being flimsy and set to be overturned in 5 years, that the party would be well advised to get on with some properly transformational policies.
Yep. If they just fiddle about around the edges, people will be just as pissed off next time. By 2028/9 they at least need to point to progress, and campaign on “let us finish the job”
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
The competition for 'centrists' is very fierce, there are more votes to be won on the right.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
There are some nasty articles standing for Reform but I certainly wouldn’t disregard their voters or characterise them as ‘jackboot brigade’. Reform, who I am certainly no fan of, are talking to people on the level who are sick of politics. I can understand the motivation to vote for them.
I still feel that a lot of this goes back to the expenses scandal.
It is like Nigel says. they are just saying what a lot of people think. In the end you either have a democracy or you don't. If you want to live in a democracy you have to come to terms with things like the reform party.
Yes - and in turn they have to do the actual hard work and accountability of politics instead of promising whatever they feel like.
There is a real possibility IMHO that every seat where Reform comes second will be won by them at the next election
There is a real possibility that the Reform party barely exists by 2029
Agree. Farage has a low boredom threshold. There's nobody else, except a few chancers. There may well be a realignment of the right, but it will be focused on the Tories, not Reform.
If Labour is seen to get a huge majority on fewer votes/ lower vote share than Corbyn in 2019 I do think there will be pressure to move leftward in government. Sure, the big story will be Reform overperforming - but the way to beat Reform will be to do left wing politics and not to lean into immigrant bashing.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
I think we can trace the discontent back many years. Some areas have obviously never recovered from de-industrialisation, and we have had 20 years of very poor growth. The political settlement isn't working for chunks of people and they see the centrist Labour and Tories having failed them. We then got Brexit, kick over the apple cart, Corbyn, lurch to the left, I have easy fixes to these problems, Boris, get Brexit done properly and big state-ism, and now Farage, just stop all the immigrants.
I've written on here before about historical Labour Party corruption at all stratas of government post war. T. Dan Smith etc. while the peasants starved. Labour were punished last time by the Tories who in turn were no less corrupt than Labour and now these voters are to rely on an absolute shower of corrupt Faragista s***.
As people might know I am from Stoke. Absolute corrupt shit show of a Labour in charge for ages. If you remember at one point they even had a bit of a surge for the BNP. And the big thing I remember about Brexit, they did Vox Pops and asked his guy, why are you going to vote for Brexit, the economics say it will make your life worse and he was said look around, f##king look around, how much f##king worse can it get.
@Leon is perfectly correct that SKS will be booted out in 2029 if he fails in government. But what if this Labour government turns out to be good, in 2028 people feel richer, the country seems to work better. Then surely there will be people too disillusioned to vote Labour this time might join/rejoin the Labour camp and an increased vote share (if not an increased majority) next time.
Labour gain Swindon South, Sir Robert Buckland loses his seat
Source?
ITV
They announce results before they're declared. Always been their policy.
Where are they getting the results from?
They have agents in the counting room and when nearly everyone seems to believe the result is obvious they announce it, but everyone else — BBC, Sky, Press Association — wait for the formal declaration. ITV have got egg on their faces over the years with incorrect calls, the most famous being Edinburgh South in 2010 which they called for the LDs about an hour after the polls closed and then Labour held it after a recount a few hours later.
This must be the most negative media coverage of a landslide election win ever.
Another reason there should be a ban on polls during an election campaign.
It's a landslide by mathematics.
Outside Scotland these are unimpressive results for Labour. Barely inched forwards.
Yes, it's been a fucking awful night for Labour. Dismal.
I'm sure Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will be most distressed
Labour should be disappointed that they haven't won that many people over to vote for them. But they should be delighted that they have held their vote share from a 2-way election into a 4-way one, as the actresses said to the bishops
There is a real possibility IMHO that every seat where Reform comes second will be won by them at the next election
no chance
Don't see it either. Unless the UK genuinely splits into a multiparty system (which I doubt while there is FPTP), the pendulum will always swing back to 2 major parties: one centre right, the other centre left. If the Tories opt for far right, either Labour or the Libs will become centre right (the other taking the role of centre left within what by then is the Overton window).
Both Labour and the Lib Dems are far too committed institutionally to being socially left for that to happen.
Big shortening now on conservatives 50 to 99 seats. Implies Tories may have 29 or so less seats than exit poll forecasts.
Is it possible the Reform share is gonna throw up some more volatility vs the exit poll, compared to a ‘normal’ election?
Yes, Curtice and co are excellent, and I think the poll will still be near enough spot on, but surely some weird 3 and 4 way marginals may make it harder to get right?
John McDonnell on channel 4 right now saying Labour have to be far more radical than the manifesto let on - and hinting that Keir will be.
I think McDonnell is right, to be honest. The media and political class are so dead set already on Labour’s majority being flimsy and set to be overturned in 5 years, that the party would be well advised to get on with some properly transformational policies.
It depends what radical means. Lots of radical things would be bad, but some radical things are good. And most of those radical good things take longer than 5 years to deliver success.
- liberalisation of planning laws - massive investment in infrastructure and green energy - overhaul business rates system and replace with land taxation - meaningful reconnection with the EU
If Labour is seen to get a huge majority on fewer votes/ lower vote share than Corbyn in 2019 I do think there will be pressure to move leftward in government. Sure, the big story will be Reform overperforming - but the way to beat Reform will be to do left wing politics and not to lean into immigrant bashing.
Or listen to sensible concerns on immigration. A Conservative party that did this would be 10 points or more higher in the polls right now. A Labour party that ignores it, ignores it at all our peril.
@Leon is perfectly correct that SKS will be booted out in 2029 if he fails in government. But what if this Labour government turns out to be good, in 2028 people feel richer, the country seems to work better. Then surely there will be people too disillusioned to vote Labour this time might join/rejoin the Labour camp and an increased vote share (if not an increased majority) next time.
I'm actually pretty optimistic on economics in the next five years, thanks to collapsing energy prices. (Sorry @Richard_Tyndall.)
I don't think it should frighten them at all. I'd rather be a Labour MP with RefUK in second than the Tories (or indeed Lib Dems or Greens) in second. Lower ceiling.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
Why are you adding Tory and Reform?
Because it helps them draw the simpler but less productive conclusions.
@Leon is perfectly correct that SKS will be booted out in 2029 if he fails in government. But what if this Labour government turns out to be good, in 2028 people feel richer, the country seems to work better. Then surely there will be people too disillusioned to vote Labour this time might join/rejoin the Labour camp and an increased vote share (if not an increased majority) next time.
It could happen, but it is much much tougher ask than 1997.
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
I think we can trace the discontent back many years. Some areas have obviously never recovered from de-industrialisation, and we have had 20 years of very poor growth. The political settlement isn't working for chunks of people and they see the centrist Labour and Tories having failed them. We then got Brexit, kick over the apple cart, Corbyn, lurch to the left, I have easy fixes to these problems, Boris, get Brexit done properly and big state-ism, and now Farage, just stop all the immigrants.
I've written on here before about historical Labour Party corruption at all stratas of government post war. T. Dan Smith etc. while the peasants starved. Labour were punished last time by the Tories who in turn were no less corrupt than Labour and now these voters are to rely on an absolute shower of corrupt Faragista s***.
As people might know I am from Stoke. Absolute corrupt shit show of a Labour in charge for ages. If you remember at one point they even had a bit of a surge for the BNP. And the big thing I remember about Brexit, they did Vox Pops and asked his guy, why are you going to vote for Brexit, the economics say it will make your life worse and he was said look around, f##king look around, how much f##king worse can it get.
And it has got even worse.....
It's of course the political strategy they are playing to elicit the answer, of course it could be worse, because then they say, the elites think you deserve worse. But indeed a low-growth economy would, eventually, be especially bad for areas with high dependency on state spend.
That was then. This is now. I ask again. Which political party is a position to overturn a 170 majority in five years?
Asking the wrong question. Who has a voter coalition so clearly fragile they could lose a majority of 170 in five years?
Labour have wolves at the door everywhere - green for the anti-semites and trots, RFM for the working class, and Con/LD for the middleclasses+. Providing they deliver they could be fine, but it doesn't feel that different to 2019.
If Labour is seen to get a huge majority on fewer votes/ lower vote share than Corbyn in 2019 I do think there will be pressure to move leftward in government. Sure, the big story will be Reform overperforming - but the way to beat Reform will be to do left wing politics and not to lean into immigrant bashing.
To be honest I’ve generally found that sort of sentiment annoying but there is so much “Labour need to reflect on this terrible landslide and turn to the far right” that a bit of leftwards pressure might not be a bad thing.
If Labour is seen to get a huge majority on fewer votes/ lower vote share than Corbyn in 2019 I do think there will be pressure to move leftward in government. Sure, the big story will be Reform overperforming - but the way to beat Reform will be to do left wing politics and not to lean into immigrant bashing.
Or listen to sensible concerns on immigration. A Conservative party that did this would be 10 points or more higher in the polls right now. A Labour party that ignores it, ignores it at all our peril.
Immigration will bring down Labour in either 5 or 10 years time. They can't help themselves bring in as many of their core voting demographics as possible.
Extraordinary story potentially brewing in Bassetlaw, where, according to the exit poll, Reform UK have a good chance of winning. Their candidate is 86 year-old Frank Ward, father of the newly elected Labour mayor of the East Midlands, Claire Ward. 😮
There is a real possibility IMHO that every seat where Reform comes second will be won by them at the next election
I think it is highly unlikely it will happen in *every* seat!
There are a wide range of possible outcomes for Reform in the next five years, from disappearance to Government.
Yes, I should have said "a lot", not "every"!
But people here seem to be very dismissive of their results. Getting second place, above the Tories, is a great result for them to springboard from. Winning enough seats to form a government in 2029 is maybe just a bit too far, but they could win dozens of seats.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
On the exit poll Tories and Reform are on over 40%, Labour on 36%.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
Turn to Reform and the Tories can aspire to win 13 seats themselves.
You win elections by being a big tent, not reaching for extremes.
@Leon is perfectly correct that SKS will be booted out in 2029 if he fails in government. But what if this Labour government turns out to be good, in 2028 people feel richer, the country seems to work better. Then surely there will be people too disillusioned to vote Labour this time might join/rejoin the Labour camp and an increased vote share (if not an increased majority) next time.
Agree here. Labour have a hell of a job on their hands, but with luck, judgement and hard work they can actually make a substantive positive difference to people’s lives.
Still, the positive thing for the Tories if RefUK do pick up a dozen seats is that's half a dozen by-elections in the next couple of years where they have a decent chance of a gain.
Comments
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Whatever it looks like the next election will feature 16/17 year olds.
Think I may have read that on here earlier, actually.
Disenchanted ex-Tories who didn't want to vote Labour, but didn't want to vote Tory either.
There are a wide range of possible outcomes for Reform in the next five years, from disappearance to Government.
Now yes they may lose a few to the LDs and Labour but at the moment the main votes to be gained for the Tories are from Reform on the right
Edit: percentages on Pulpstar's spreadie now
Edit/here it is, the victory speech
I ask again. Which political party is a position to overturn a 170 majority in five years?
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1809001644580798956
There may well be a realignment of the right, but it will be focused on the Tories, not Reform.
And it has got even worse.....
https://x.com/TSEofPB/status/1809003232095842635
Yes, Curtice and co are excellent, and I think the poll will still be near enough spot on, but surely some weird 3 and 4 way marginals may make it harder to get right?
- massive investment in infrastructure and green energy
- overhaul business rates system and replace with land taxation
- meaningful reconnection with the EU
Distortion on a speech microphone: awful.
Well done Swindon.
Labour have wolves at the door everywhere - green for the anti-semites and trots, RFM for the working class, and Con/LD for the middleclasses+. Providing they deliver they could be fine, but it doesn't feel that different to 2019.
Lab +8
Con -25
https://x.com/petesaull/status/1809004334610288675
But people here seem to be very dismissive of their results. Getting second place, above the Tories, is a great result for them to springboard from. Winning enough seats to form a government in 2029 is maybe just a bit too far, but they could win dozens of seats.
And just to clarify, I don't support Reform.
You win elections by being a big tent, not reaching for extremes.
As per Prof Cowley.
Absolute battering for the Tories.
The south is going to be a bloodbath for them.
that 410 might be an underestimate
Word from Labour is that they have lost Sheffield Hallam (Nick Clegg’s former seat) to the Lib Dems.