This must be the most negative media coverage of a landslide election win ever.
Another reason there should be a ban on polls during an election campaign.
It's the sheer madness of the expectations game. Labour and Lib Dems would have bitten your hand off for the exit poll projection when the election was called and informed Labour and Lib Dem people would have taken it yesterday.
If reflected in results - and it's clearly quite hard to model RefUK so more uncertainty than there normally would be - that's very good for them. And it's interesting as it's a real Parliamentary group and that is relevant in terms of how the Tories go forward. But let's be real for a moment - it's one out of every fifty MPs - it's less than the Lib Dems PRE-election.
For the Tories, maybe they can be relieved it isn't extinction level. But it's an incredibly deep hole.
Again if the exit poll is right, it's really grim for the SNP. They might steady things in the next Scottish Parliamentary elections... but they might not as news could get worse before it gets better.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 14m Said it before, will say it again. The Supermajority strategy was insanity. Actively gave Tory voters licence to vote Reform. Madness.
Tory voters supporting Reform, where the Tories can’t win, is sensible.
Can the Tories outperform the exit poll and squeak past the 156??
Too early to say. We've had two results where the Tories have done less badly than expected according to the exit poll, but these are Labour holds not Con defences. Let's see if they've done less badly than expected in their defences as well when those results begin to come through.
BBC says Tory vote is down by far more in Tory held seats
Have not been following the polls or this election campaign as real life is exceptionally busy (selling the farm and moving all the animals to another). But have I got this right: the Tories are getting wiped out, but are having their best result in Scotland since Maggie?
Can the Tories outperform the exit poll and squeak past the 156??
Too early to say. We've had two results where the Tories have done less badly than expected according to the exit poll, but these are Labour holds not Con defences. Let's see if they've done less badly than expected in their defences as well when those results begin to come through.
BBC says Tory vote is down by far more in Tory held seats
Yes, this is where it gets annoying as the early seats are not representative enough
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
Question for @Pulpstar about his excellent spreadsheets: Are the figures alongside the predicted seat winners by each pollster (e.g. cols I, K , M etc) the percent that the winning party was predicted by that pollster to get?
Can the person who said tradesmen were rushing to vote Tory over private school VAT please make themselves known to the front desk for your explanation.
This is an early half-formed thought to be followed up when we have the data to do so. But could it best be understood as Con - Reform as protest and Con - LibDem as long term shift which in electoral (seat) terms is more damaging
Nicola Sturgeon basically blaming the SNP, or as she call it ‘they’, for not putting independence front and centre of campaigning in the election! #Election2024
If Reform gets seats everybody gonna do a deep dive into the MPs' twitter history and that is virtually bound to put them in an existential crisis within weeks.
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
I think we can trace the discontent back many years. Some areas have obviously never recovered from de-industrialisation, and we have had 20 years of very poor growth. The political settlement isn't working for chunks of people and they see the centrist Labour and Tories having failed them. We then got Brexit, kick over the apple cart, Corbyn, lurch to the left, I have easy fixes to these problems, Boris, get Brexit done properly and big state-ism, and now Farage, just stop all the immigrants.
Can the Tories outperform the exit poll and squeak past the 156??
Too early to say. We've had two results where the Tories have done less badly than expected according to the exit poll, but these are Labour holds not Con defences. Let's see if they've done less badly than expected in their defences as well when those results begin to come through.
BBC says Tory vote is down by far more in Tory held seats
I know, that's what the exit poll suggests, but we lack corroboration from actual returns.
Blyth prediction is Lab 18750, Ref 10500, Con 8000, LD 3000, Grn 1500.
Green>Lab?
I've overestimated turnout everywhere I suspect, wishful thinking that it would only drop by around 1.5% overall when it's clearly going to be down considerably more than that.
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
The competition for 'centrists' is very fierce, there are more votes to be won on the right.
This is an early half-formed thought to be followed up when we have the data to do so. But could it best be understood as Con - Reform as protest and Con - LibDem as long term shift which in electoral (seat) terms is more damaging
Have the Lib Dems gone forwards or backwards in the two seats so far.
Hint: It's better for them if they've gone backwards.
I don't know, but ISRC they were behind the Greens in the second declaration.
And here's a little piece of LD evidence from Sunderland Central, which was contested on unchanged boundaries. Lib Dem vote up by a fraction, but not sure you can read too much into that as it was already low in a safe Labour seat.
No real evidence here either way about likely Lib Dem performance down South. We are probably going to have to wait a while for their first gain.
If Reform gets seats everybody gonna do a deep dive into the MPs' twitter history and that is virtually bound to put them in an existential crisis within weeks.
why ? Reform MPs are nto supposed to be woke - its why they are getting elected - unless its full on nazi (i doubt it) it will probably do then good to be accused on some PC offence
This is a kick the Tories out election. That’s about all you need to know.
I think the rise of the jackboot brigade is more than just kick out the Tories. Very concerning.
There are some nasty articles standing for Reform but I certainly wouldn’t disregard their voters or characterise them as ‘jackboot brigade’. Reform, who I am certainly no fan of, are talking to people on the level who are sick of politics. I can understand the motivation to vote for them.
I still feel that a lot of this goes back to the expenses scandal.
Have the Lib Dems gone forwards or backwards in the two seats so far.
Hint: It's better for them if they've gone backwards.
I don't know, but ISRC they were behind the Greens in the second declaration.
And here's a little piece of LD evidence from Sunderland Central, which was contested on unchanged boundaries. Lib Dem vote up by a fraction, but not sure you can read too much into that as it was already low in a safe Labour seat.
No real evidence here either way about likely Lib Dem performance down South. We are probably going to have to wait a while for their first gain.
Labour share hardly changed, and large swings from Tory to Reform ... makes you wonder what would have happened if the Brexit Party hadn't stood down against the Torys in 2019
Already comments from Leadsom and JRM about retreating to the right.
They won’t win from there.
Unfortunately I'm not sure about that. I suspect the takeaway from tonight will be Reform doing well in votes if not in seats, and tacking to the right will be the default choice of the Conservatives.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
They tack rightwards to appease Reform defectors, they lose more votes from centrists. They're in a right pickle.
The competition for 'centrists' is very fierce, there are more votes to be won on the right.
I certainly think the Conservatives would do better if they had not lost votes to Reform. But the right needs to find a platform that unites people from Rory Stewart to Nigel Farage. It has to be a big tent, otherwise the Left will be in power for a very long time.
Early days, but I predicted that Labour would lose votes (compared with opinion polls over the last year) to both Reform and the Greens - I could be right, and predict Greens comfortably on their highest % ever, even if they only win a couple of seats.
By contrast, the Tories are losing votes to everybody.
Comments
Reform apparently doing much more damage to the Government up North than down South (though they're advancing everywhere.)
If reflected in results - and it's clearly quite hard to model RefUK so more uncertainty than there normally would be - that's very good for them. And it's interesting as it's a real Parliamentary group and that is relevant in terms of how the Tories go forward. But let's be real for a moment - it's one out of every fifty MPs - it's less than the Lib Dems PRE-election.
For the Tories, maybe they can be relieved it isn't extinction level. But it's an incredibly deep hole.
Again if the exit poll is right, it's really grim for the SNP. They might steady things in the next Scottish Parliamentary elections... but they might not as news could get worse before it gets better.
They won’t win from there.
Blyth 3.55%
Houghton 5.72%
Lib Dems 5% in Blyth, 4.4% Houghton last time round according to EC. So very marginally backwards.
THIS is what is missing from modern day politics!
THIS is why everyone is flocking to podcasts, social media etc.
Nuanced discussion of issues, debating the pros and cons of e.g. immigration properly - not being afraid of being caught on soundbites.
If only politics in general was more like this. Give us thoughtful debates and people happy to disagree with the party line…
(1) Indy dead for now
(2) Rejoin also dead
There are going to be so many close results. Bit of incumbency for decent Tory MPs might make the difference.
(Exit poll has Devon South "too close to call". Fingers crossed for my guy.)
Tired.
"We lost half our vote to the anti immigration fashy party, let's move towards the centre" doesn't sound like what's going to happen, sadly.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/constituencies/E14001107/
Under 100 more likely than over 150.
https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
Fucking suicidal about a 170 majority.
Only ten years in government.
Gutted.
https://x.com/p_surridge/status/1808999594618945587
The Lib Dems have been on track for this since 2019, it was all clear then.
Reform a solid second on 10,700
Blyth is pronounces like Blythe
Nicola Sturgeon basically blaming the SNP, or as she call it ‘they’, for not putting independence front and centre of campaigning in the election! #Election2024
https://x.com/holyroodmandy/status/1808997381779669148
Lab 16,852
Reform 10,779
Con 5,731
LD 3,602
Grn 2,993
Lab maj 6,073
reform 10779 27%
green 2993 7%
ld 3602 9%
con 5731 14%
Labour 16,852
Reform 10,779
Cons 5731
LDs 3602
Greens 2993
Suella Braverman has called in sick to her own count.
Whoever was first when the race ended won.
No real evidence here either way about likely Lib Dem performance down South. We are probably going to have to wait a while for their first gain.
I still feel that a lot of this goes back to the expenses scandal.
Clearly there must be some large scale tactical voting to get those Lib Dem gains in the exit poll.
Also. Who's gonna beat us?
Lab nc
Ref +15.4%
Con -21.1%
LD +2.0%
Grn +4.7%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001531
@Samfr
·
2m
I think Labour will win Hartlepool fwiw. (Heard Labour are still relatively confident at the count.)
By contrast, the Tories are losing votes to everybody.