Curtis on reform was interesting. The seat projection comes from adding the probabilities. That works fine when you have a mix of probabilities but not if they are all the same. If Reform have a 10% chance in 130 seats it is it really likely that they will win 13 seats? It will be interesting to see, but maybe the projection is optimistic for them.
Yes, if the error is systemic rather than random, you can’t do maths on the probabilities like that, as if all the events are independent
The story of the night looks like less about tory swingback in the last days, or scares of supermajority, but rather potential Tory—lab switches going reform instead, and letting tories hold on to a split opposition.
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.
But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?
The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.
Labour can't afford to **** up or we are going full Marine Le Pen in five years time. The Tories however, where do they go?
I think this performance is enough for Reform to be a significant force in future politics, but with the tories on 131 they are too high to consider merging with them. An electoral pact could be possible, but reform and tories are really quite far apart on a lot of stuff. Tories could end up losing more to the LDs next time if they do so. Think a sort of unofficial tactical voting between the two could be quite possible though
It's clearly possible for the Tories to come back in 2029.
But does anyone honestly think the current front-runners (assuming any keep their seats), will do what is needed?
The Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
Do they? Reform are taking 18% from them and Labour are only taking a few %. We need to move past this centre ground takes.
The Conservatives are going to move to the right. That is a racing certainty. Whether it gets them back in 2029 remains to be seen. I don’t think it will but I’m not a Tory.
Yes, but will they move to the actual right or the 'right' as defined by the left, based on whatever they happen to dislike at the time?
Reform vote in H and SS slightly lower than the exit poll suggested according to Prof. Cowley. Quite what folk down South were expecting is a little baffling.
I said that the first declaration would be more significant than the exit poll
There is going to be some silly money on Reform based on this. DYOR.
Indeed, we were always expecting big Reform results in the first few seats. Labour have actually outperformed according to the magic sheets (I might be misreading that). And I think Reform underpeformed, I had figures >30% in my head. But maybe misremebering, DYOR indeed...
How on Earth are the Tories meant to get sackloads of votes back from pissed off Reform voters in the North, and recover heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in the South, AT THE SAME TIME?
Curtis on reform was interesting. The seat projection comes from adding the probabilities. That works fine when you have a mix of probabilities but not if they are all the same. If Reform have a 10% chance in 130 seats it is it really likely that they will win 13 seats? It will be interesting to see, but maybe the projection is optimistic for them.
Yes, if the error is systemic rather than random, you can’t do maths on the probabilities like that, as if all the events are independent
How on Earth are the Tories meant to get sackloads of votes back from pissed off Reform voters in the North, and recover heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in the South, AT THE SAME TIME?
Good evening from the P&J live in Aberdeen. Must say that the exit poll greatly entertained. I had posted that Survation poll and been laughed out of town by the SNP.
Curtis on reform was interesting. The seat projection comes from adding the probabilities. That works fine when you have a mix of probabilities but not if they are all the same. If Reform have a 10% chance in 130 seats it is it really likely that they will win 13 seats? It will be interesting to see, but maybe the projection is optimistic for them.
Yes, if the error is systemic rather than random, you can’t do maths on the probabilities like that, as if all the events are independent
Are you claiming that Sir JC doesn't know this?
Neither he nor I yet know how and where the error arises, or indeed whether there is one.
Good evening from the P&J live in Aberdeen. Must say that the exit poll greatly entertained. I had posted that Survation poll and been laughed out of town by the SNP.
Have politicians worked out the British people want immigration brought under control yet?
Of course they haven't.
It's the same across Europe...if established parties don't figure out how to manage migration (not some hare brained Rwanda scheme)...the rise of the populist right is inexorable....
Comparing the exit poll to the models, two things stand out: • Labour underperformed the forecasts • Reform exceeded them...
...Going to be a fun one for the narratives. • Massive Labour landslide and huge majority (but weaker than expected) • Very punchy performance from the radical right (but they will be a very small presence in parliament)
Good evening from the P&J live in Aberdeen. Must say that the exit poll greatly entertained. I had posted that Survation poll and been laughed out of town by the SNP.
They’re not laughing now
Good to see you're posting on PB despite worrying about your own election. Keep us informed!
Starmer's going to get a lot of grief over the coming years. Interesting to wonder whether Labour would have won with someone like Long Bailey as leader. They'll think they'd have won. They might be right.
I would expect Reform votes to be quite concentrated, with one of the concentrations being in Sunderland. They have clearly done well but I wouldn't read too much into this one result.
How on Earth are the Tories meant to get sackloads of votes back from pissed off Reform voters in the North, and recover heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in the South, AT THE SAME TIME?
Answers on a postcard.
The majority of pissed off Reform voters will be in the South. Specifically the East. I keep saying this. But nobody listens.
How on Earth are the Tories meant to get sackloads of votes back from pissed off Reform voters in the North, and recover heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in the South, AT THE SAME TIME?
Answers on a postcard.
Maybe just let Reform mop up the anti-Labour vote in Labour seats, and then look at confidence and supply.
Have politicians worked out the British people want immigration brought under control yet?
I think the Tories offer a manifesto commitment to leave the ECHR if no reform is forthcoming within the 5 year term.
Ludicrous. It will have to be way more severe than that. Look at France and Italy
It will have to be near-zero migration and severely hostile policies towards ghettoes and communities unwilling to integrate
Look at what the successful leftwing Danes are doing, bulldozing ghetto communities, that will happen everywhere. Native white populations are saying: This far, and no more
Looks like the Tories are absolutely nowhere in the Northeast tbh. The romance lasted a single election.
Yes.
I wonder where the Tories would be if Reform slipped back to 5-7% and just in the NE and places like that, tbh.
My guess is they'd regain 20 or so seats from the LDs and maybe the same from Labour too once the ejection revulsion in their heartlands has worked its way through.
The baseline for them at the next election, all things being equal, should really be near 200 seats or so.
How on Earth are the Tories meant to get sackloads of votes back from pissed off Reform voters in the North, and recover heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in the South, AT THE SAME TIME?
Answers on a postcard.
The majority of pissed off Reform voters will be in the South. Specifically the East. I keep saying this. But nobody listens.
Comments
Among the relatively few cabinet members likely to KEEP their seats, it looks as if:
Kemi Badenoch
Suella Braverman
Robert Jenrick
Tom Tugendhat
…have the best chance of holding their seats and entering the leadership race.
Yes, but will they move to the actual right or the 'right' as defined by the left, based on whatever they happen to dislike at the time?
Quite what folk down South were expecting is a little baffling.
Could be an interesting point of detail.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dissolution-peerages-2024
Labour have actually outperformed according to the magic sheets(I might be misreading that). And I think Reform underpeformed, I had figures >30% in my head. But maybe misremebering, DYOR indeed...But I'm not terribly keen on using the exit poll to discuss individual seats - not really designed for that.
Let's wait and see.
https://x.com/philipjcowley/status/1808988277942128900
Do not fuck up in five years or Reform will eat your heartlands.
So a Con to Ref swing but also a Con to Lab swing.
a bedthe vote.She won, with an increased %
Answers on a postcard.
Was the Reform vote just Tories or was it Labour too? In which case it's a 2017-style warning.
My entry was based off sums from the Yougov MRP I had in my spreadsheet.
Labour ........ 414
Tories ...........127
LibDems ........ 61
It will be interesting to see how these move, if at all, over the coming hours.
They’re not laughing now
And while I despise people saying Con+Ref its worth noting Con+Ref is a lower total than last time.
The future is not Reform. Thank goodness!
Lab 37%
Con 23%
Reform 17%
LD 12%
Green 7%
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1808990483013591477
So YouGov was within MoE, Opinium just out? Can I understand how this is a polling "miss"?
SW Wiltshire: 83% likelihood Tory
https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
• Labour underperformed the forecasts
• Reform exceeded them...
...Going to be a fun one for the narratives.
• Massive Labour landslide and huge majority (but weaker than expected)
• Very punchy performance from the radical right (but they will be a very small presence in parliament)
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1808983009426649127
Although its not "Labour" underperforming, but the forecasts....
I keep saying this. But nobody listens.
It will have to be near-zero migration and severely hostile policies towards ghettoes and communities unwilling to integrate
Look at what the successful leftwing Danes are doing, bulldozing ghetto communities, that will happen everywhere. Native white populations are saying: This far, and no more
I wonder where the Tories would be if Reform slipped back to 5-7% and just in the NE and places like that, tbh.
My guess is they'd regain 20 or so seats from the LDs and maybe the same from Labour too once the ejection revulsion in their heartlands has worked its way through.
The baseline for them at the next election, all things being equal, should really be near 200 seats or so.
Let's wait and see
🌹 LAB: 47.1% (+6.7)
➡️ RFM: 29.1% (+13.4)
🌳 CON: 13.8% (-19.1)
🔶 LDM: 5.7% (-0.2)
🌍 GRN: 4.3% (+1.6)
Labour HOLD.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808989123786502412
Feels eerily similar to 2017 to me.