Does anyone have a list of the 15 Reform seats forecast by the latest Survation MRP? I looked on their map but could only find about 3. Maybe the map wasn't updated or something.
That link leads back to the same map again. Thanks anyway.
I've extracted the data tables and Survation only make RefUK favourites in Clacton, Boston and Skegness, Gainsborough, Ashfield and Great Yarmouth. Their win probability is only significant in a small handful of other seats, so I'm not at all sure where the central forecast of 15 comes from, unless the published tables simply haven't been fully updated.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Ok thats’s a good question
How bad does it have to get for the Tories for us to wonder if this is it, they are doomed
Under 100 seats? I dunno. They could come back from that; indeed they probably would, slowly
There are three thresholds which, I suggest, could be read as fatal movements:
1. Falling behind the LDs in seats so they become the third party and lose opposition status
2. Falling behind Reform in votes
3. Falling below 50 seats
For me, any of those constitutes a potentially lethal blow. If they get two or three of these they’re finished for sure
Yeah I would agree with that. In particular, if they fall behind the Lib Dem’s in seats and lose LOTO they will seriously struggle to be heard or a part of the conversation.
Something will probably rise from the ashes but it won’t be the Tory party as we have known it.
Hold on one second though, the Tories could have 200 seats and the next Tory government won't be the Tory party as we have known it.
Quite rightly too, the Tory party as we have known it is getting kicked out.
Cameron won by modernising the party. Whoever is the next Tory PM will win by doing the same, when the party is ready (and the country is ready to kick out Labour).
That’s true. The Tories need to remember what they are for. Small government, low taxes, sound finances, small businesses, equality of opportunity, compassion, meaningful defence and a united country working together.
They need to get over the obsession with Europe, it’s done, fighting “woke” nonsense and performative cruelty. They have lost sight of their purpose, their base and the national interest.
We're actually not a million miles away in the outcomes we want. We are vastly different in how we think they can be achieved.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
Small anecdote. My sister and her husband have not voted in years (definitely didn't in 2019) have gone out and voted. It's for Reform, they spend most of their lives looking at Tiktok, which probably explains it. There constituency is Caerphilly.
The Lib Dems really fucked this up. If they’d offered a rejoin referendum and immediate single market membership I am sure they would have got 1-2m more votes and overtaken the Tories. They still might. But they missed a massive open goal
Nah, that's for the next GE. Always leave something in the tank.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
They were all too busy campaigning in their own seats !!
Have been working for the Lib Dems in Cheltenham. Mainly telling. No Conservative tellers. One lady turned away with no id. Numerous people told me they had voted Lib Dem - I did not ask but had a nice yellow rosette. The one that creased me up - Couple arrived. Husband said we are both Conservatives and refused to give polling numbers. No problem as their right. Husband left first, wife followed and mouthed at me "I voted for you." Obviously for our candidate and not me personally!
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
No it won't. We'll know the result at 10pm, and it'll almost definitely be either a huge Labour majority or a smaller than expected but perfectly servicable Labour majority. I mean, there will be much interest to be had in the seat by seat detail, but you won't need to stay up to know who'll be in Number 10 tomorrow.
1992 is a poor comparator. It looked, throughout, like a close election on the polls and the narrative. The only surprise was that it wasn't quite a close as people thought and the Tories won a small but working majority. There might have been some differential turnout in that but it was largely polling methodology error.
Sure, if the bongs go at ten and the headline is "Labour majority of 4" then it will indeed be squeaky bums all round. But that is extremely unlikely. If they go and it says "Labour majority of 40" then that's a big surprise and the Tories will be pleased to have defied expectations - but it won't be a tense night and the removal van will still be at Downing Street at dawn as expected.
The exit poll is much more likely to say “Labour majority of three figures” at which point we know this is a massive election and we need to know; if the Tories are dead, if the Lib Dem’s are the opposition, if reform have massively broken through - in seats or votes - and if the SNP are crushed, and also smaller but intense dramas like Cabinet ministers losing seats
This is a site for politics geeks. We love this stuff. Generally we get overexcited - but not this time. This is a genuinely pivotal election which could transform our politics. I’ve no idea why you are playing it down like it’s normal and boring. It isn’t
I assume that like last time they will give predicted seat numbers for all the parties so we should have a good handle on a lot of those questions straight away.... in 2 hours 42 minutes time
Unless the polling is so mad even the exit poll struggles to define it? Is that possible? I don’t know the science of exit polls - are they always deadly accurate?
It’s gonna be SO boring if Labour get a 57 seat majority and the Tories get 203 and it’s all as you were, just a change of management, same as the old boss
That WILL be disappointing (albeit not for Tories)
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
No it won't. We'll know the result at 10pm, and it'll almost definitely be either a huge Labour majority or a smaller than expected but perfectly servicable Labour majority. I mean, there will be much interest to be had in the seat by seat detail, but you won't need to stay up to know who'll be in Number 10 tomorrow.
1992 is a poor comparator. It looked, throughout, like a close election on the polls and the narrative. The only surprise was that it wasn't quite a close as people thought and the Tories won a small but working majority. There might have been some differential turnout in that but it was largely polling methodology error.
Sure, if the bongs go at ten and the headline is "Labour majority of 4" then it will indeed be squeaky bums all round. But that is extremely unlikely. If they go and it says "Labour majority of 40" then that's a big surprise and the Tories will be pleased to have defied expectations - but it won't be a tense night and the removal van will still be at Downing Street at dawn as expected.
The exit poll is much more likely to say “Labour majority of three figures” at which point we know this is a massive election and we need to know; if the Tories are dead, if the Lib Dem’s are the opposition, if reform have massively broken through - in seats or votes - and if the SNP are crushed, and also smaller but intense dramas like Cabinet ministers losing seats
This is a site for politics geeks. We love this stuff. Generally we get overexcited - but not this time. This is a genuinely pivotal election which could transform our politics. I’ve no idea why you are playing it down like it’s normal and boring. It isn’t
I assume that like last time they will give predicted seat numbers for all the parties so we should have a good handle on a lot of those questions straight away.... in 2 hours 42 minutes time
My observation is that they tend to lightly underestimate Tory seats.
I'm slightly surprised at the talk of high turnout, the story yesterday was that turnout was likely to be down. Perhaps the voter ID requirements are slowing things up?
Your surprise is surprising. On turnout there are three possibilities, up, down and static. On zero information this is sufficient for an outpouring of thousands of opinions both about the unknowns of this and also the possibilities which arise from each of the unknown and unknowable possibilities. Triple and quadruple hypotheticals can occasionally arise.
This is pretty sound on lawyers, but TSE is wrong to suggest that all great lawyers have to be quick on their feet. Barristers and others who centre on court appearance are indeed so - and a mighty bunch they are too. But there is a unsung body of lawyers, mostly solicitors but barristers also, who are still essentially characters out of Dickens who spend their time thinking about strict settlements made with regard to the heirs of Lord Emsworth in 1345 and whether cattle taken in withernam are irreplevisable. They are mostly slow on their feet, take their time over lunch and Lincoln's Inn would not be the same without them.
As we’ve seen at the Post Office Inquiry, there’s a long line of internal counsel, internal prosecutors, internal investigators, and many layers of management lawyers above them, all of whom have all completely failed to live up to the standards expected of their profession.
Although we’ve also seen Jason Beer KC, who should be Sir Jason as soon as the inquiry is complete.
Failing upwards....we have to stop this trend.
Look at Mrs MET, Mr Natwest, etc....everything they have touched has been a shit show. Howard Davies literally went from f##k up to f##k up. FSA, LSE, Natwest.
I thought of the Post Office situation when I was reading the story of the British WWII agents in the Netherlands, which I mentioned earlier. Like the German ones in the UK, they were all captured and either turned or impersonated. They’d be sent out with various security precautions - words or formats to use in their early morse messages which they were supposed to use to indicate that they were at liberty - when they (or some German imposter) failed to use them, SOE would radio back things like “you’ve forgotten to use your security code”. As the war went on, the Germans had great fun sending back all sorts of nonsense - which they called Englandspiel - as more and more bits of evidence accumulated back at SOEHQ that there was something dodgy about the Dutch agents, it was always dismissed because the truth was too awful for anyone to face up to. Until eventually what was really a scandal was finally acknowledged.
iirc it was the same chap running the show who let Kim Philby escape.
Well, they were ‘Good chaps’ weren’t they. Eton, etc. All that sort of background.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4h New York Times: "Trump Stays Quiet (Relatively), Hoping Biden Stays in the Race". The Democrats need to end this quickly.
I mean, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by this. And yet it still does surprise me.
The tories are cooked, aren’t they?
p.s. no need to pour opprobrium on Anna. That’s not the point really.
She's an ex leader of a centrist split party and implacabbly opposed to toryism, it's not remotely surprising
I'm surprised she was ever a Conservative tbh.
This is where your Party will need to reflect, and probably for a long time.
You drove out an important half, a half which kept you closer to power.
As you know, I suspect that you will have a long time to consider this.
Fightback begins tomorrow.
Prepare yourself.
We will give you no respite.
Hope Starmer's not reading this. He'll be quaking in his boots.
He should be. His majority and mandate is based on sand.
Watch the hubris.
Hubris is thinking your opposition will fail automatically without you needing to address why you've lost.
The Tories only came back under Cameron when they were willing to modernise.
“Modernise” is a frankly meaningless word, or if it means anything it means “be generally progressive and centre left and yawn blah yuk”. The Tories have done that for 14 years and now they are facing oblivion
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
No it won't. We'll know the result at 10pm, and it'll almost definitely be either a huge Labour majority or a smaller than expected but perfectly servicable Labour majority. I mean, there will be much interest to be had in the seat by seat detail, but you won't need to stay up to know who'll be in Number 10 tomorrow.
1992 is a poor comparator. It looked, throughout, like a close election on the polls and the narrative. The only surprise was that it wasn't quite a close as people thought and the Tories won a small but working majority. There might have been some differential turnout in that but it was largely polling methodology error.
Sure, if the bongs go at ten and the headline is "Labour majority of 4" then it will indeed be squeaky bums all round. But that is extremely unlikely. If they go and it says "Labour majority of 40" then that's a big surprise and the Tories will be pleased to have defied expectations - but it won't be a tense night and the removal van will still be at Downing Street at dawn as expected.
The exit poll is much more likely to say “Labour majority of three figures” at which point we know this is a massive election and we need to know; if the Tories are dead, if the Lib Dem’s are the opposition, if reform have massively broken through - in seats or votes - and if the SNP are crushed, and also smaller but intense dramas like Cabinet ministers losing seats
This is a site for politics geeks. We love this stuff. Generally we get overexcited - but not this time. This is a genuinely pivotal election which could transform our politics. I’ve no idea why you are playing it down like it’s normal and boring. It isn’t
My feel is that the exit poll will be good on vote share and on Labour seats, but could be very flaky when it comes to LibDem, Green, Reform seats - and hence the Tory total, from whom these seats will be gained (or not) could be flaky too. We shall see.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
They were all too busy campaigning in their own seats !!
Quite. This completely unnecessary election was the final betrayal of the PCP by Sunak, who came in promising to save MPs' jobs. The amount of people prepared to portray him as the victim of his party as opposed to the other way around is extraordinary.
My polling station is pretty quiet this evening. I voted this morning, when it was busier, but just walked past.
It's surprised me a bit - I conjectured that Labour voters were more likely in the early evening. Having rather set my betting cap at Labour outperforming the polls (due to pollsters making things more reasonable) I think this may be evidence that I'm not in for a terribly profitable night. Too late to change horses now of course, and I'm connecting a very long train of dots.
Meanwhile in the states Biden seems to be doing even more damage to Dems chances by refusing to go. Also not necessarily to my betting benefit!
Tonight's rather nice Riesling might be the last I can afford for a while!
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
You keep saying the future belongs to me.
But this is neither a Putinist nor a fascist country.
Reform have nothing to do with the future of this country.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
No it won't. We'll know the result at 10pm, and it'll almost definitely be either a huge Labour majority or a smaller than expected but perfectly servicable Labour majority. I mean, there will be much interest to be had in the seat by seat detail, but you won't need to stay up to know who'll be in Number 10 tomorrow.
1992 is a poor comparator. It looked, throughout, like a close election on the polls and the narrative. The only surprise was that it wasn't quite a close as people thought and the Tories won a small but working majority. There might have been some differential turnout in that but it was largely polling methodology error.
Sure, if the bongs go at ten and the headline is "Labour majority of 4" then it will indeed be squeaky bums all round. But that is extremely unlikely. If they go and it says "Labour majority of 40" then that's a big surprise and the Tories will be pleased to have defied expectations - but it won't be a tense night and the removal van will still be at Downing Street at dawn as expected.
The exit poll is much more likely to say “Labour majority of three figures” at which point we know this is a massive election and we need to know; if the Tories are dead, if the Lib Dem’s are the opposition, if reform have massively broken through - in seats or votes - and if the SNP are crushed, and also smaller but intense dramas like Cabinet ministers losing seats
This is a site for politics geeks. We love this stuff. Generally we get overexcited - but not this time. This is a genuinely pivotal election which could transform our politics. I’ve no idea why you are playing it down like it’s normal and boring. It isn’t
My feel is that the exit poll will be good on vote share and on Labour seats, but could be very flaky when it comes to LibDem, Green, Reform seats - and hence the Tory total, from whom these seats will be gained (or not) could be flaky too. We shall see.
SJC knows this too, though, and will have chosen his sample stations accordingly.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
We had a mock General Election at my school in 1987. The “Kent Independence Party” won. Suffice to say they did not have the future.
I mean, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by this. And yet it still does surprise me.
The tories are cooked, aren’t they?
p.s. no need to pour opprobrium on Anna. That’s not the point really.
She's an ex leader of a centrist split party and implacabbly opposed to toryism, it's not remotely surprising
I'm surprised she was ever a Conservative tbh.
This is where your Party will need to reflect, and probably for a long time.
You drove out an important half, a half which kept you closer to power.
As you know, I suspect that you will have a long time to consider this.
Fightback begins tomorrow.
Prepare yourself.
We will give you no respite.
Hope Starmer's not reading this. He'll be quaking in his boots.
He should be. His majority and mandate is based on sand.
Watch the hubris.
Hubris is thinking your opposition will fail automatically without you needing to address why you've lost.
The Tories only came back under Cameron when they were willing to modernise.
“Modernise” is a frankly meaningless word, or if it means anything it means “be generally progressive and centre left and yawn blah yuk”. The Tories have done that for 14 years and now they are facing oblivion
Which part of "... generally progressive and centre left ..." describes Braverman et al.?
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
I mentioned a wee while ago that they should have changed the name of the party to 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party'. Selebian's anecdote backs that up a bit.
My polling station is pretty quiet this evening. I voted this morning, when it was busier, but just walked past.
It's surprised me a bit - I conjectured that Labour voters were more likely in the early evening. Having rather set my betting cap at Labour outperforming the polls (due to pollsters making things more reasonable) I think this may be evidence that I'm not in for a terribly profitable night. Too late to change horses now of course, and I'm connecting a very long train of dots.
Meanwhile in the states Biden seems to be doing even more damage to Dems chances by refusing to go. Also not necessarily to my betting benefit!
Tonight's rather nice Riesling might be the last I can afford for a while!
Maybe the paradox is resolved by people not turning out in Lab safe seats, but joining in for the pile on in Tory (formerly) safe seats.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
They were all too busy campaigning in their own seats !!
Quite. This completely unnecessary election was the final betrayal of the PCP by Sunak, who came in promising to save MPs' jobs. The amount of people prepared to portray him as the victim of his party as opposed to the other way around is extraordinary.
Perhaps you're mistaking the UK for another country in thinking that elections are optional here.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
I think it depends on the precise level they reach as to whether they replace or merge with the Tories or if the latter fight them off. But I think we might find some middle of the road types got excited at helping destroy the Tories by voting Reform.
I mean, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by this. And yet it still does surprise me.
The tories are cooked, aren’t they?
p.s. no need to pour opprobrium on Anna. That’s not the point really.
She's an ex leader of a centrist split party and implacabbly opposed to toryism, it's not remotely surprising
I'm surprised she was ever a Conservative tbh.
This is where your Party will need to reflect, and probably for a long time.
You drove out an important half, a half which kept you closer to power.
As you know, I suspect that you will have a long time to consider this.
Fightback begins tomorrow.
Prepare yourself.
We will give you no respite.
Hope Starmer's not reading this. He'll be quaking in his boots.
He should be. His majority and mandate is based on sand.
Watch the hubris.
Hubris is thinking your opposition will fail automatically without you needing to address why you've lost.
The Tories only came back under Cameron when they were willing to modernise.
“Modernise” is a frankly meaningless word, or if it means anything it means “be generally progressive and centre left and yawn blah yuk”. The Tories have done that for 14 years and now they are facing oblivion
Which part of "... generally progressive and centre left ..." describes Braverman et al.?
Braverman resigned in despair after Rishi failed to implement the vaguely right wing policies that she got him to agree to in exchange for her support.
As I said before, if Corbyn loses to Starmer in his seat and Starmer loses to Corbyn nationwide then SKS fans and Corbyn fans will both have to explain this to each other.
I imagine Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will be rather too busy governing the country to be engaging with nerdy stat scoring.
I mean, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by this. And yet it still does surprise me.
The tories are cooked, aren’t they?
p.s. no need to pour opprobrium on Anna. That’s not the point really.
She's an ex leader of a centrist split party and implacabbly opposed to toryism, it's not remotely surprising
I'm surprised she was ever a Conservative tbh.
This is where your Party will need to reflect, and probably for a long time.
You drove out an important half, a half which kept you closer to power.
As you know, I suspect that you will have a long time to consider this.
Fightback begins tomorrow.
Prepare yourself.
We will give you no respite.
Hope Starmer's not reading this. He'll be quaking in his boots.
He should be. His majority and mandate is based on sand.
Watch the hubris.
Hubris is thinking your opposition will fail automatically without you needing to address why you've lost.
The Tories only came back under Cameron when they were willing to modernise.
“Modernise” is a frankly meaningless word, or if it means anything it means “be generally progressive and centre left and yawn blah yuk”. The Tories have done that for 14 years and now they are facing oblivion
Which part of "... generally progressive and centre left ..." describes Braverman et al.?
You do remember that @Leon is in the provisional wing of Reform. Of course Braverman appears a soft centrist. He desperately wants blood and soil (though not to actually live here).
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
I mentioned a wee while ago that they should have changed the name of the party to 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party'. Selebian's anecdote backs that up a bit.
Oh yeah, that's just what we need. The man's a complete ego-maniac as it is...
Does anyone have a list of the 15 Reform seats forecast by the latest Survation MRP? I looked on their map but could only find about 3. Maybe the map wasn't updated or something.
That link leads back to the same map again. Thanks anyway.
I've extracted the data tables and Survation only make RefUK favourites in Clacton, Boston and Skegness, Gainsborough, Ashfield and Great Yarmouth. Their win probability is only significant in a small handful of other seats, so I'm not at all sure where the central forecast of 15 comes from, unless the published tables simply haven't been fully updated.
I suspect the answer is something like this:
There is a tranche of constituencies which are close where Reform are slight underdogs. While they are not favourites in any of these constituencies, probabilistically they should win some of them.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I said before, if Corbyn loses to Starmer in his seat and Starmer loses to Corbyn nationwide then SKS fans and Corbyn fans will both have to explain this to each other.
I imagine Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will be rather too busy governing the country to be engaging with nerdy stat scoring.
I'm packing up at work, will be out by 7:45. Go to the shop for vittles and sweeties, KFC for chicken, then back to weekday digs. It's been an odd day. I won't be sorry to see Con go (see previous posts), but I have no hopes in and some fear of the incoming Lab administration (see previous posts), I don't think anybody knows how to run the country and this is the worst election for decades. I'm typing this in a nearly-empty office with "Duck Shoot" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J87-KfmgAtw ) on the soundtrack, which adds to the end-of-an-era vibe. Ah, well...
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
Getting into power is only half the job.
Staying there and doing things are often the harder bit.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
I mentioned a wee while ago that they should have changed the name of the party to 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party'. Selebian's anecdote backs that up a bit.
Oh yeah, that's just what we need. The man's a complete ego-maniac as it is...
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
They were all too busy campaigning in their own seats !!
Quite. This completely unnecessary election was the final betrayal of the PCP by Sunak, who came in promising to save MPs' jobs. The amount of people prepared to portray him as the victim of his party as opposed to the other way around is extraordinary.
I think the fairest description someone gave was that he played a bad hand badly.
That is, there was plenty not his fault, but he then made things worse.
Everyone adamant that ‘the polls / MRPs always underestimate the Tories’
Surely if this was such an inevitability, it would be already built in to many of the polls/MRPs?
I’m still saying Labour 470+ and Lib Dems second place in seats.
The fact is we don’t know. We don’t know if the methodology is right. We don’t know if it’s measured the swing from 2019 right. We don’t know if the methodology has adapted to the change in circumstances (a 2 party election in 2019 to a multiparty one now).
We all just have to surmise from the trends shown. The fact the pollsters are all showing similar results gives some comfort as to accuracy, but truth be told we can never discount a polling error either way.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
Can you imagine the carnage if they had shown up?
Sure, but they should have made an effort.
It's hard for them to bray about fightback afterwards when they would have been shot at dawn in the trenches.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
Does it belong to them?
Well, I just walked through Regent's Park and up the Hill and the branch of the linden is leafy and green, so take that as you will
Everyone adamant that ‘the polls / MRPs always underestimate the Tories’
Surely if this was such an inevitability, it would be already built in to many of the polls/MRPs?
I’m still saying Labour 470+ and Lib Dems second place in seats.
The fact is we don’t know. We don’t know if the methodology is right. We don’t know if it’s measured the swing from 2019 right. We don’t know if the methodology has adapted to the change in circumstances (a 2 party election in 2019 to a multiparty one now).
We all just have to surmise from the trends shown. The fact the pollsters are all showing similar results gives some comfort as to accuracy, but truth be told we can never discount a polling error either way.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
Very hard to even say when they lost their 'last' election, due to the split between Asquith and Lloyd-George Liberals. Asquith was practically wiped out in 1918 (so was it that election?), but Lloyd-George's Coalition Liberals were fine and the man himself remained PM. In 1922, Squiffy had a bit of a recovery but Lloyd-George was out. So was it the 'last' election then?
1922 was pretty ominous to say the least for them, because Labour came second. But then there was an uneasy truce and they came pretty close to regaining second in 1923 - so it was ominous in 1922 but perhaps not obvious they were doomed. Then, in 1924, they were trounced and never looked seriously like getting back in the game.
As I mentioned, Labour were hammered in 1931 but still won over 30% of the vote - it was Baldwin's total dominance that did for them. They didn't really need to look to threats over their shoulder, it was just they were on the bad end of a savage difference between first and second place.
Perhaps the lesson is that, if the Tories do take a very bad beating, they aren't doomed but aren't safe either. A few things need to happen - but things that aren't vanishingly unlikely.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4h New York Times: "Trump Stays Quiet (Relatively), Hoping Biden Stays in the Race". The Democrats need to end this quickly.
And have a big glass of whisky in standby just in case!
I threw up last time.
Not sure how I'll be this time.
Start with your very worst expectation and then everything will look better. I went into the last exit poll with the figure “Corbyn majority 60” in my head:
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
We had a mock General Election at my school in 1987. The “Kent Independence Party” won. Suffice to say they did not have the future.
Dunno, the KIP might just have been the germ of UKIP
My polling station is pretty quiet this evening. I voted this morning, when it was busier, but just walked past.
It's surprised me a bit - I conjectured that Labour voters were more likely in the early evening. Having rather set my betting cap at Labour outperforming the polls (due to pollsters making things more reasonable) I think this may be evidence that I'm not in for a terribly profitable night. Too late to change horses now of course, and I'm connecting a very long train of dots.
Meanwhile in the states Biden seems to be doing even more damage to Dems chances by refusing to go. Also not necessarily to my betting benefit!
Tonight's rather nice Riesling might be the last I can afford for a while!
Maybe the paradox is resolved by people not turning out in Lab safe seats, but joining in for the pile on in Tory (formerly) safe seats.
Yes. Queen's Park and Maida Vale (the old Westminster North) isn't likely to deliver surprises.
On senior people not showing up for the campaign it feels like that's been said every election of my adult life. A sign of our presidential focus perhaps, it all goes on the leaders.
I still think Rishi might be toast in his own seat. After all, he cannot stay put to campaign in his own seat only.
Robert Colvile @rcolvile · 1h As a Tory, I'm approaching tonight in the same spirit as watching 'Titanic'. You know what's going to happen, the drama is seeing who survives.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
Can you imagine the carnage if they had shown up?
TBF Mr Johnson makes his regular disquisitions in the DM/MailOnline.
And have a big glass of whisky in standby just in case!
I threw up last time.
Not sure how I'll be this time.
I remember on the last election night I was laid up with an absolutely horrible flu type thing (have never been completely sure it was Covid already spreading around before anyone knew it) so I was in bed by midnight and missed all the fun.
In 2010 I put my back out and couldn;'t really enjoy that election night either (though I did manage to watch the show)
I generally don't have a very good record when it comes to election nights lol!
In the unlikely event that Sir John Curtice had a betting account, and the morals of a Tory strategist, he would be filling his boots now, by now he would have a very strong opinion of the outcome
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
You keep saying the future belongs to me.
But this is neither a Putinist nor a fascist country.
Reform have nothing to do with the future of this country.
Lockdown changed my view on that. The willingness of people to tattle on their neighbours, the % who were happy with nightclubs being shuttered forever, the pot-banging displays of patriotism, and the unchecked aggressiveness of the police - arresting people who were more than five miles from their home, or the violent arrest of that girl at the peaceful protest for Sarah Everard, for example - suggests this country could descend into fascism in months, not years, if conditions were favourable.
The authoritarian creeps are just waiting for an opportunity. Which is why, like vampires, we must never invite them in.
My polling station is pretty quiet this evening. I voted this morning, when it was busier, but just walked past.
It's surprised me a bit - I conjectured that Labour voters were more likely in the early evening. Having rather set my betting cap at Labour outperforming the polls (due to pollsters making things more reasonable) I think this may be evidence that I'm not in for a terribly profitable night. Too late to change horses now of course, and I'm connecting a very long train of dots.
Meanwhile in the states Biden seems to be doing even more damage to Dems chances by refusing to go. Also not necessarily to my betting benefit!
Tonight's rather nice Riesling might be the last I can afford for a while!
Maybe the paradox is resolved by people not turning out in Lab safe seats, but joining in for the pile on in Tory (formerly) safe seats.
I think the paradox may be resolved by people working from home and therefore voting more during the day. Certainly likely to be an effect on the professional desk-based graduate vote, ie Labour and Lib Dem.
Meanwhile here in ultra safe Lewisham North (Lab Maj 33k, Brexit vote 76% remain) I bring you anecdata from the school parents.
One I spoke to has voted Labour - she is at heart a Lib Dem - because her mother had convinced her not to risk it in case the Tory gets in. So no complacency there.
And one of the mums is holding an election early evening (9-11) party with the big screen in the garden, which may mean I don’t get to be on here for the bongs, sadly.
Tonight I will be at the count where Douglas Ross, Andrew Bowie and hopefully Stephen Flynn all lose…
Good luck, but go prepared to be disappointed. Standing in a GE is an activity with very little relationship between effort and reward, let alone merit and reward.
As a matter of simple mathematics, if the LibDems are forecast to win a shedload of MPs on barely more than a tenth of the vote, LibDems everywhere else are going to poll extraordinarily badly. Just think of your lack of votes as doing your bit to make the sums work out better for the target seats!
Point of order. Where did I claim that we would beat these three candidates? Ross is toast. When people are raising Duguid outside the polling station as their motivation to vote you know that Ross is toast.
I got introduced to a member of Banff and Buchan Tory Association. Across the square from their HQ. He was not voting for Ross either…
The new MRP has just said that the Tories will hold ANME, as one of only two Con seats in Scotland, so they may have egg on their faces if the SNP are going to win.
Its possible, but it doesn't feel like it. From what we can see the usual Tory machine has been entirely absent today. Have seen signs of Reform and SNP out and active, but nothing from the Tories. Unless they are only in Moray?
Genuinely I don't think Ross will win this. Remember that MRP does not take into account local issues. And oh boy have we had those here...
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
Sailing analogy: turning out to campaign is like taking the 4 a.m. watch or it being your turn to clean the heads today. You are going to do it, but not from an excess of desire for the job and therefore not unless someone has drawn up a rota and told you where you are on it. This is mainly lack of or incompetence at admin plus hating Sunak and wanting him to fail, and not being tainted by association with the national campaign, and being too desperate trying to save ones own constituency to look at the bigger picture
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
No it won't. We'll know the result at 10pm, and it'll almost definitely be either a huge Labour majority or a smaller than expected but perfectly servicable Labour majority. I mean, there will be much interest to be had in the seat by seat detail, but you won't need to stay up to know who'll be in Number 10 tomorrow.
1992 is a poor comparator. It looked, throughout, like a close election on the polls and the narrative. The only surprise was that it wasn't quite a close as people thought and the Tories won a small but working majority. There might have been some differential turnout in that but it was largely polling methodology error.
Sure, if the bongs go at ten and the headline is "Labour majority of 4" then it will indeed be squeaky bums all round. But that is extremely unlikely. If they go and it says "Labour majority of 40" then that's a big surprise and the Tories will be pleased to have defied expectations - but it won't be a tense night and the removal van will still be at Downing Street at dawn as expected.
Yes, of course I accept that. However, I do think the Don´t Knows coming out to vote injects major league uncertainty, especially into the seat spreads. It is not just the result itself that matter for many on here, it is exactly how the cookie crumbles.
Do we actually know turnout is high, or is this all anecdotal? This quite often happens at General Elections - people go to the polling station, it's a lot busier than when they voted in the locals two months ago, and they over-interpret. Yes, it will be busier than in May, fairly obviously.
It's anecdotal. Could all be bullshit and a false alarm, and either higher or lower than usual or just "usual".
However, I no longer think it'll be a sub 60% washout based on what I've seen today and above 70% was value IMHO, so I bought.
I also had a tickle at 25-1 this morning. I don't think we'll be up on 2019, in fact, but did feel it was fairly good value for a small flutter at those odds.
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
They were all too busy campaigning in their own seats !!
Quite. This completely unnecessary election was the final betrayal of the PCP by Sunak, who came in promising to save MPs' jobs. The amount of people prepared to portray him as the victim of his party as opposed to the other way around is extraordinary.
I think the fairest description someone gave was that he played a bad hand badly.
That is, there was plenty not his fault, but he then made things worse.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
You keep saying the future belongs to me.
But this is neither a Putinist nor a fascist country.
Reform have nothing to do with the future of this country.
Lockdown changed my view on that. The willingness of people to tattle on their neighbours, the % who were happy with nightclubs being shuttered forever, the pot-banging displays of patriotism, and the unchecked aggressiveness of the police - arresting people who were more than five miles from their home, or the violent arrest of that girl at the peaceful protest for Sarah Everard, for example - suggests this country could descend into fascism in months, not years, if conditions were favourable.
The authoritarian creeps are just waiting for an opportunity. Which is why, like vampires, we must never invite them in.
I had exactly the same epiphany. Thankfully people did seem to emerge from the spell in 2021, but for a while it was a bit unnerving.
I didn’t object to lockdowns per se, but the relish with which some embraced them was a bit weird.
I've not really done it before, but to ensure I'm fresh for the whole count I've had a couple hours nap.
The Spanish are right about a daytime snooze, I feel much better already.
A well executed nap is an absolute thing of beauty. I find there are two kinds - forty winks (actually 20 minutes). Or the full 2-3 hours. From either you can wake up truly invigorated. But if you fuck it up and sleep for one hour or four hours then it can screw your sleep pattern for a week, and you're all groggy. So well done
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Ok thats’s a good question
How bad does it have to get for the Tories for us to wonder if this is it, they are doomed
Under 100 seats? I dunno. They could come back from that; indeed they probably would, slowly
There are three thresholds which, I suggest, could be read as fatal movements:
1. Falling behind the LDs in seats so they become the third party and lose opposition status
2. Falling behind Reform in votes
3. Falling below 50 seats
For me, any of those constitutes a potentially lethal blow. If they get two or three of these they’re finished for sure
Yeah I would agree with that. In particular, if they fall behind the Lib Dem’s in seats and lose LOTO they will seriously struggle to be heard or a part of the conversation.
Something will probably rise from the ashes but it won’t be the Tory party as we have known it.
Hold on one second though, the Tories could have 200 seats and the next Tory government won't be the Tory party as we have known it.
Quite rightly too, the Tory party as we have known it is getting kicked out.
Cameron won by modernising the party. Whoever is the next Tory PM will win by doing the same, when the party is ready (and the country is ready to kick out Labour).
That’s true. The Tories need to remember what they are for. Small government, low taxes, sound finances, small businesses, equality of opportunity, compassion, meaningful defence and a united country working together.
They need to get over the obsession with Europe, it’s done, fighting “woke” nonsense and performative cruelty. They have lost sight of their purpose, their base and the national interest.
How about young people being able to afford a house. Just a thought.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
The 'old style' Liberal Party split during the First World War and the two wings separately contested the 1918 election, one in government, one in opposition. In December 1923 they fielded 450 candidates - more than Labour - and came a fairly close third in seats.
It was obvious after 1924, when they lost 116 seats and were reduced to a mere 40 MPs, that they were not coming back, something that proved highly problematic for first Lloyd George in 1929 and then Herbert Samuel in 1935.
But if you take 1918 as the benchmark, it wasn't obvious.
Higher than expected turn out is ringing very big 1992 bells to me.
This is going to be a long and tense night.
No it won't. We'll know the result at 10pm, and it'll almost definitely be either a huge Labour majority or a smaller than expected but perfectly servicable Labour majority. I mean, there will be much interest to be had in the seat by seat detail, but you won't need to stay up to know who'll be in Number 10 tomorrow.
1992 is a poor comparator. It looked, throughout, like a close election on the polls and the narrative. The only surprise was that it wasn't quite a close as people thought and the Tories won a small but working majority. There might have been some differential turnout in that but it was largely polling methodology error.
Sure, if the bongs go at ten and the headline is "Labour majority of 4" then it will indeed be squeaky bums all round. But that is extremely unlikely. If they go and it says "Labour majority of 40" then that's a big surprise and the Tories will be pleased to have defied expectations - but it won't be a tense night and the removal van will still be at Downing Street at dawn as expected.
The exit poll is much more likely to say “Labour majority of three figures” at which point we know this is a massive election and we need to know; if the Tories are dead, if the Lib Dem’s are the opposition, if reform have massively broken through - in seats or votes - and if the SNP are crushed, and also smaller but intense dramas like Cabinet ministers losing seats
This is a site for politics geeks. We love this stuff. Generally we get overexcited - but not this time. This is a genuinely pivotal election which could transform our politics. I’ve no idea why you are playing it down like it’s normal and boring. It isn’t
My feel is that the exit poll will be good on vote share and on Labour seats, but could be very flaky when it comes to LibDem, Green, Reform seats - and hence the Tory total, from whom these seats will be gained (or not) could be flaky too. We shall see.
SJC knows this too, though, and will have chosen his sample stations accordingly.
That could well be part of the problem - as they try and use the same stations each time, so that they can identity the changes from last time and assume these apply also to the postal votes, which aren’t exit polled. The spread of polling stations you’d need to get a full fix on this time’s results is surely significantly different from the previous election, and yet their ability to redeploy is probably limited.
A friend who’s prominent in Reform, and has been campaigning in Clacton, thinks Farage could win 50%. Otherwise, he thinks predictions of 7 - 15 seats are ridiculous, and 4 is the maximum they could win.
In the unlikely event that Sir John Curtice had a betting account, and the morals of a Tory strategist, he would be filling his boots now, by now he would have a very strong opinion of the outcome
I don't know if he does have a betting account, but why would it be immoral for him to bet if he did? He's an expert in just the same way that someone who is unusually knowledgable about horseracing is an expert.
In general, I think the whole episode on political betting in this campaign will be seen, with hindsight, as a daft moral panic. Bookies don't have to offer odds and don't have to take bets - indeed, they regularly limit bets for individuals or across the board.
Comments
I'm done until 10pm, unless strong evidence emerges of Tories going below 50.
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1808925075984560295?s=61
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
Watch the hubris. No, hubris is pride before a fall.
It’s gonna be SO boring if Labour get a 57 seat majority and the Tories get 203 and it’s all as you were, just a change of management, same as the old boss
That WILL be disappointing (albeit not for Tories)
So if the poll says 95 Tory seats, buy 100+ etc
Alone.
If the Tories don't modernise then 2028 will probably be to 2024, what 2001 was to 1997.
@DPJHodges
·
4h
New York Times: "Trump Stays Quiet (Relatively), Hoping Biden Stays in the Race". The Democrats need to end this quickly.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1808861365987164630
In fact, that still even happens after 10pm when real results start coming in.
It's surprised me a bit - I conjectured that Labour voters were more likely in the early evening. Having rather set my betting cap at Labour outperforming the polls (due to pollsters making things more reasonable) I think this may be evidence that I'm not in for a terribly profitable night. Too late to change horses now of course, and I'm connecting a very long train of dots.
Meanwhile in the states Biden seems to be doing even more damage to Dems chances by refusing to go. Also not necessarily to my betting benefit!
Tonight's rather nice Riesling might be the last I can afford for a while!
The Spanish are right about a daytime snooze, I feel much better already.
Surely if this was such an inevitability, it would be already built in to many of the polls/MRPs?
I’m still saying Labour 470+ and Lib Dems second place in seats.
But this is neither a Putinist nor a fascist country.
Reform have nothing to do with the future of this country.
And have a big glass of whisky in standby just in case!
https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/electoral-disaster-metaphor-guide
I do think there's enough to suggest the Tories are on around 20%, and that could easily mean a number which gets them close to second at least.
Not sure how I'll be this time.
"Oh no, what went wrong?"
"Rishi is a socialist. If only we had been actual Conservatives, the whole Reform vote would've flooded over to us and we'd have won 414%"
"Agreed. You don't win Clacton by being a wet, woke Trot."
"Too right! Rishi to Rwanda! All hail Suella!"
End of introspection.
There is a tranche of constituencies which are close where Reform are slight underdogs. While they are not favourites in any of these constituencies, probabilistically they should win some of them.
See y'all later this evening.
Staying there and doing things are often the harder bit.
That is, there was plenty not his fault, but he then made things worse.
We all just have to surmise from the trends shown. The fact the pollsters are all showing similar results gives some comfort as to accuracy, but truth be told we can never discount a polling error either way.
We will find out in 2.5 hours or so anyway.
It's hard for them to bray about fightback afterwards when they would have been shot at dawn in the trenches.
1922 was pretty ominous to say the least for them, because Labour came second. But then there was an uneasy truce and they came pretty close to regaining second in 1923 - so it was ominous in 1922 but perhaps not obvious they were doomed. Then, in 1924, they were trounced and never looked seriously like getting back in the game.
As I mentioned, Labour were hammered in 1931 but still won over 30% of the vote - it was Baldwin's total dominance that did for them. They didn't really need to look to threats over their shoulder, it was just they were on the bad end of a savage difference between first and second place.
Perhaps the lesson is that, if the Tories do take a very bad beating, they aren't doomed but aren't safe either. A few things need to happen - but things that aren't vanishingly unlikely.
I still think Rishi might be toast in his own seat. After all, he cannot stay put to campaign in his own seat only.
Robert Colvile
@rcolvile
·
1h
As a Tory, I'm approaching tonight in the same spirit as watching 'Titanic'. You know what's going to happen, the drama is seeing who survives.
https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1808917566095503389
In 2010 I put my back out and couldn;'t really enjoy that election night either (though I did manage to watch the show)
I generally don't have a very good record when it comes to election nights lol!
The authoritarian creeps are just waiting for an opportunity. Which is why, like vampires, we must never invite them in.
Meanwhile here in ultra safe Lewisham North (Lab Maj 33k, Brexit vote 76% remain) I bring you anecdata from the school parents.
One I spoke to has voted Labour - she is at heart a Lib Dem - because her mother had convinced her not to risk it in case the Tory gets in. So no complacency there.
And one of the mums is holding an election early evening (9-11) party with the big screen in the garden, which may mean I don’t get to be on here for the bongs, sadly.
NEW THREAD
Genuinely I don't think Ross will win this. Remember that MRP does not take into account local issues. And oh boy have we had those here...
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
Watching Jaws tonight - set around July 4th, and deeply political, it seems appropriate.
I didn’t object to lockdowns per se, but the relish with which some embraced them was a bit weird.
It was obvious after 1924, when they lost 116 seats and were reduced to a mere 40 MPs, that they were not coming back, something that proved highly problematic for first Lloyd George in 1929 and then Herbert Samuel in 1935.
But if you take 1918 as the benchmark, it wasn't obvious.
But yes, he probably does have a fair idea of the result.
In general, I think the whole episode on political betting in this campaign will be seen, with hindsight, as a daft moral panic. Bookies don't have to offer odds and don't have to take bets - indeed, they regularly limit bets for individuals or across the board.