1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
You keep saying the future belongs to me.
But this is neither a Putinist nor a fascist country.
Reform have nothing to do with the future of this country.
No party has really been speaking to the young, that I've seen. Those looking for first jobs, first homes (or renting) and trying to start a family. They're pissed off and rightly so - those of us on here who are relatively comfortable and further in careers don't really get it, I think.
Reform don't have the answers, of course, but it seems they might be successful in talking to this group, talking about the issues, even if the solutions are bullshit. I think Farage has a ceiling, but if they can find a successor who is younger, more apparently modern and moderate (like the RN in France) then they could become a danger.
Of course, responding to polling and actually voting are two different things, reform may well undershoot the polling and I suspect neither of the two people I mentioned actually got round to voting. But we need labour (and other parties) to find real solutions that don't just come down to blaming immigrants.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
We had a mock General Election at my school in 1987. The “Kent Independence Party” won. Suffice to say they did not have the future.
In 1997 there were six seats up for grabs at Newent Community School.
The Liberal Democrats led by Emma Cook and assisted by Alison Goldsworthy (later a national party organiser and now a professor of economics at Stanford) won four.
The Monster Raving Loony Party on a manifesto of 'jelly jelly jelly' won the other two.
1. Polled our builders today. Main contractor in 50s voted labour although IDs as more lib dem (none of this a surprise to me, I know him fairly well). His assistant, former apprentice, expressed preference for Nigel, but hadn't linked that to reform, was not sure would vote. Two brickies in 40s voted labour. One in twenties would vote reform but again hadn't be voted at that point.
2 Friend's sister is teacher and they did poll in school. Reform won every class. Green second in year 7, lab second elsewhere.
Maybe Leon's on to something. Lab had better delivery for the young before they start voting in large numbers!
As I keep saying. Reform have the future
You keep saying the future belongs to me.
But this is neither a Putinist nor a fascist country.
Reform have nothing to do with the future of this country.
Lockdown changed my view on that. The willingness of people to tattle on their neighbours, the % who were happy with nightclubs being shuttered forever, the pot-banging displays of patriotism, and the unchecked aggressiveness of the police - arresting people who were more than five miles from their home, or the violent arrest of that girl at the peaceful protest for Sarah Everard, for example - suggests this country could descend into fascism in months, not years, if conditions were favourable.
The authoritarian creeps are just waiting for an opportunity. Which is why, like vampires, we must never invite them in.
I had exactly the same epiphany. Thankfully people did seem to emerge from the spell in 2021, but for a while it was a bit unnerving.
I didn’t object to lockdowns per se, but the relish with which some embraced them was a bit weird.
Yes. Extraordinary times can justify Extraordinary measures, I still believe that, but it should also be scrutinised in Extraordinary fashion and extremely limited.
And we need to be cautious about limitations generally. Banning stuff or restricting is a cudgel wielded too easily.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
The 'old style' Liberal Party split during the First World War and the two wings separately contested the 1918 election, one in government, one in opposition. In December 1923 they fielded 450 candidates - more than Labour - and came a fairly close third in seats.
It was obvious after 1924, when they lost 116 seats and were reduced to a mere 40 MPs, that they were not coming back, something that proved highly problematic for first Lloyd George in 1929 and then Herbert Samuel in 1935.
But if you take 1918 as the benchmark, it wasn't obvious.
was it or could it have been predicted at that point that the Labour Party were going to be more of a challenger from then on. as with all smaller parties they gained a lot of new votes in 1918 but didn't gain that many seats. but did continue to win seats and votes in the two elections afterwards.
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
The 'old style' Liberal Party split during the First World War and the two wings separately contested the 1918 election, one in government, one in opposition. In December 1923 they fielded 450 candidates - more than Labour - and came a fairly close third in seats.
It was obvious after 1924, when they lost 116 seats and were reduced to a mere 40 MPs, that they were not coming back, something that proved highly problematic for first Lloyd George in 1929 and then Herbert Samuel in 1935.
But if you take 1918 as the benchmark, it wasn't obvious.
was it or could it have been predicted at that point that the Labour Party were going to be more of a challenger from then on. as with all smaller parties they gained a lot of new votes in 1918 but didn't gain that many seats. but did continue to win seats and votes in the two elections afterwards.
It was predicted by some, eg. Arthur Balfour as early as 1906. But it still was not obvious. All other considerations aside, the state of politics was so chaotic in 1918 it was hard to read any trend.
The one harbinger that might perhaps have been noted was Asquith losing his seat to an independent Unionist even though Bonar Law himself went to Fife to first read the riot act to the Unionist association and then actually campaign for Asquith. But given Asquith's failures had made him personally enormously unpopular it's understandable people missed it.
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
You can’t call anywhere in the Yorkshire coalfield ‘South’. It’s blasphemous.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
And as much as the Tory Party and the ineptitude within it frustrates me, it's still the only realistic option for a centre right moderate like me. I'm not a socialist so cannot vote Labour or Lib Dem, nor am I some deranged Faragist loon.
Without a mainstream winnable centre right option then I'm disenfranchised and democracy dies for me.
That's why I'm praying for 150 and Farage sinking in the sea in Clacton but that looks fanciful and I really fear total wipeout.
Just chatting to Mrs Foxy over tea.
One of the striking things about this election was the failure of so many Tory Ministers to turn up. Penny gets the plaudits for the debates, but otherwise it was just Rishi.
We heard next to nothing from Braverman, Badenoch, Truss, Johnson, Tugendhat, Jenrick, May or Cameron.
They all deserted in the face of the enemy. It was no defence of Rourkes drift.
They were all too busy campaigning in their own seats !!
Quite. This completely unnecessary election was the final betrayal of the PCP by Sunak, who came in promising to save MPs' jobs. The amount of people prepared to portray him as the victim of his party as opposed to the other way around is extraordinary.
I think the fairest description someone gave was that he played a bad hand badly.
That is, there was plenty not his fault, but he then made things worse.
I think he's been buffeted by terrible advice as well as circumstances and has not been strong enough to go with his own instincts. I don't think he's a terrible person even if he's rubbish at day to day politics.
The problem throughout has been that the only person who could legitimately be in charge of "Boris Johnson's Conservative Party" as it became in 2019 was Boris Johnson.
No other leader could attain any authority without a vote and so Rishi hasn't really been able to go his own way.
The Tories should have called an election much earlier. They'd have lost but at least they wouldn't have ceased to be the opposition.
Well I hope whoever is PM, one of their first acts is to pass a law standardising the names of constituencies. Why is it South West Norfolk, but Barnsley South? Makes it unnecessarily inefficient to find them on the exchange.
In my brave new world it will South Barnsley and so on.
The cardinal direction should always be last so all places named for a local area are together in an alphabetical list.
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
I would agree with that, except that Norfolk South West doesn’t scan as well. Norfolk south scans, as does Norfolk west, but not Norfolk South West. Well not to my ear anyway.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
I believe shire constituencies are "North West Barsetshire" and borough constituencies are "Borchester North West"
I think I've voted every time I could for 61 years. Councils, Referenda, General Elections. The only time I can remember not doing so was when the Returning Officer wouldn't accept my signature on a postal ballot earlier this year. The first vote I cast was in the GE of 1959, when the qualifying age was 21.
I have missed only one in my voting life, because my wife was in labour (the childbirth process, not the party) which I feel is an OK excuse. It was a foregone-conclusion mayoral election, but even so it still annoys my inner completist.
I boycotted the first PCC election because I didn’t agree with it. That’s the only time I knowingly didn’t vote.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
When the old-style Liberal Party lost their 'last' election was it obvious at the time? I'm not up in GE history.
Very hard to even say when they lost their 'last' election, due to the split between Asquith and Lloyd-George Liberals. Asquith was practically wiped out in 1918 (so was it that election?), but Lloyd-George's Coalition Liberals were fine and the man himself remained PM. In 1922, Squiffy had a bit of a recovery but Lloyd-George was out. So was it the 'last' election then?
1922 was pretty ominous to say the least for them, because Labour came second. But then there was an uneasy truce and they came pretty close to regaining second in 1923 - so it was ominous in 1922 but perhaps not obvious they were doomed. Then, in 1924, they were trounced and never looked seriously like getting back in the game.
As I mentioned, Labour were hammered in 1931 but still won over 30% of the vote - it was Baldwin's total dominance that did for them. They didn't really need to look to threats over their shoulder, it was just they were on the bad end of a savage difference between first and second place.
Perhaps the lesson is that, if the Tories do take a very bad beating, they aren't doomed but aren't safe either. A few things need to happen - but things that aren't vanishingly unlikely.
This really could be the day the Tory party dies as a national party. Even now its quite hard to get one’s head around that.
Scary times.
I plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Which isn't ideal when you're trying to bet on this election.
I’m 62. The Tories have completely dominated my adult life politically. There was the Blair intromission but he never really looked to change the status quo.
The idea that they might not be around anymore, like the SDP of my youth, is quite startling. Anything less than 120 and they are gone for good.
Comments
Con -1
Labour =1
Lib Dem +3
Reform +1
SNP -2
Green no change
Reform don't have the answers, of course, but it seems they might be successful in talking to this group, talking about the issues, even if the solutions are bullshit. I think Farage has a ceiling, but if they can find a successor who is younger, more apparently modern and moderate (like the RN in France) then they could become a danger.
Of course, responding to polling and actually voting are two different things, reform may well undershoot the polling and I suspect neither of the two people I mentioned actually got round to voting. But we need labour (and other parties) to find real solutions that don't just come down to blaming immigrants.
The Liberal Democrats led by Emma Cook and assisted by Alison Goldsworthy (later a national party organiser and now a professor of economics at Stanford) won four.
The Monster Raving Loony Party on a manifesto of 'jelly jelly jelly' won the other two.
And we need to be cautious about limitations generally. Banning stuff or restricting is a cudgel wielded too easily.
NEW THREAD
I think that is generally the case with towns but not rural areas (eg East Wiltshire and South West Wiltshire)
Cons -1
Labour -1
Lib Dem +3 (10 to 13)
SNP =2
Greens no change
Reform +1
4 things appears certain tonight
1. Labour have a massive win
2. Cons have a massive defeat
3. Lib Dems increase seats
4. Reform increase seats
The one harbinger that might perhaps have been noted was Asquith losing his seat to an independent Unionist even though Bonar Law himself went to Fife to first read the riot act to the Unionist association and then actually campaign for Asquith. But given Asquith's failures had made him personally enormously unpopular it's understandable people missed it.
I would prefer your suggestion over the status quo though.
The problem throughout has been that the only person who could legitimately be in charge of "Boris Johnson's Conservative Party" as it became in 2019 was Boris Johnson.
No other leader could attain any authority without a vote and so Rishi hasn't really been able to go his own way.
The Tories should have called an election much earlier. They'd have lost but at least they wouldn't have ceased to be the opposition.