Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

History suggests lawyer Starmer was always going to win this election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 7 in General
imageHistory suggests lawyer Starmer was always going to win this election – politicalbetting.com

Writing a piece about why lawyers are awesome is a piece of epic tautology but it does have important betting related implications both today and in the future.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    There's always a place for lawyers.
  • Options
    Oh great more tripe.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,232
    PRIMA inter pares
  • Options
    DopermeanDopermean Posts: 126
    I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    With zis tripe you are really trolling us, Mr Eagles.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034

    PRIMA inter pares

    Blooming autocorrect
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,034
    Pulpstar said:

    With zis tripe you are really trolling us, Mr Eagles.

    Hey, since when is using facts trolling.

    Tell me where I am wrong with this header?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Dart beats Boulter
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    kle4 said:

    There's always a place for lawyers.

    One of Dante's nine circles? :wink:
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Selebian said:

    kle4 said:

    There's always a place for lawyers.

    One of Dante's nine circles? :wink:
    So many options. That's why I only put in the set up.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....

    I've got to go out just after 7, hoping to be back for the exit poll
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    edited July 4
    FPT

    Been to vote in Flatland Central. Pointless really - the Red Team will accumulate > 50%. I have still not seen a single election poster in the constituency and voting was anything but brisk.

    Our soon to be new MP was previously a prison officer but it seems to be a union connection that got her the job which is not particularly encouraging.

    I don't really want to be responsible for what comes next so I voted Con because their candidate isn't terrible and the Lib Dems are absent.

    Reform are likely to be competing for second with the Tories in any case and with the longer term in mind I'd rather they were beaten into third (this is probably a forlorn hope).

    If it was a marginal seat I'd have had a much more difficult choice.

    If Starmer surprises on the upside I'll be as pleased as anyone but I can't say I want him to have a 250 seat majority on 38% of the vote.

    I'm not aware of a former prisoner officer being an MP before, so maybe this will be a first in that way.

    Found this.

    https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/labour-choose-prison-officer-sally-24386004
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    I'll go for:

    Lab - 385
    Con - 148
    Lib Dem - 60
    SNP - 30
    PC - 3
    Reform - 3
    Greens - 2
    NI - 18
    Speaker - 1
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,478
    kle4 said:

    There's always a place for lawyers.

    Can you imagine a world without lawyers?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG3uea-Hvy4
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    Dart beats Boulter

    By ‘180’ votes…..
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

    By a distance
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Taz said:

    Dart beats Boulter

    By ‘180’ votes…..
    Monster raving Murrays in third
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    Farooq said:

    Ever since Germany surrendered in World War II every time at a UK general election when Labour or the Tories have been led by a lawyer facing a non lawyer as their opponent the lawyer has always won except when both parties were led by lawyers.

    This was clearly written by a lawyer and not a logistician.

    How many times has a lawyer faced a non lawyer while both parties were led by lawyers?

    is a "logistician" half logician, half magician?
    A logistician is someone who works in the field of logistics, but yes that's a silly autocorrect error I meant logician.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30

    Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/04/manchester-teacher-who-groomed-two-boys-jailed
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    tlg86 said:

    I'll go for:

    Lab - 385
    Con - 148
    Lib Dem - 60
    SNP - 30
    PC - 3
    Reform - 3
    Greens - 2
    NI - 18
    Speaker - 1

    looking at the present odds the yougov mrp could be pretty bang on with the conservatives around 100 seats.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited July 4
    On the banks of the Arno, the hotel doormen and gelateria pistachio-packers speak of nothing else but Keir “toolmaker” Starmer.
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    Tories are sending this message to supporters.

    "We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

    Yours,
    CCHQ Data Team"
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    Yay, only six more hours of this padding before we can get serious....

    So two days then?
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    Dopermean said:

    I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.

    I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.

    Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.

    The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
  • Options
    EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 67
    Afternoon
    .Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1 Loser

    Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

    Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

    Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

    ANME SNP £25 13/8
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Checks... Yep, looks like a disinterested source. Must be legit :lol:

    Could still be true, of course!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories are sending this message to supporters.

    "We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

    Yours,
    CCHQ Data Team"

    Odd message to send out, pretty much all psephologists generally agree low turnout is better for the Conservatives as the incumbent party defending their record.
  • Options
    ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 44

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Seems like a reliable source...
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited July 4
    Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

    And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics. Struggling to care.

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Lol a random Reform account 'hearing reports'
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022

    Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

    And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics.

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.
    Almost as believable as the CCHQ messaging.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296

    Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

    And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics. Struggling to care.

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.
    And that's being polite!
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Massive lolz @TSE

    Thread of the campaign :smiley:
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772

    Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

    But that doesn't affect the basis of TSE's thesis as none of his opponents were lawyers either.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    edited July 4
    If we had the French voting system the Tories would possibly be in danger of being reduced to 25 to 50 seats.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories are sending this message to supporters.

    "We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

    Yours,
    CCHQ Data Team"

    Odd message to send out, pretty much all psephologists generally agree low turnout is better for the Conservatives as the incumbent party defending their record.
    Bog standard GOTV messaging
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,639
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories are sending this message to supporters.

    "We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

    Yours,
    CCHQ Data Team"

    Odd message to send out, pretty much all psephologists generally agree low turnout is better for the Conservatives as the incumbent party defending their record.
    Given that the Tory campaign has been essentially a negative one, I do find it difficult to believe that high turnout is a good sign for them.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Apart from Labour winning but a decent margin, this election is impossible to call.

    And yet, I think I’ve had too much politics. Struggling to care.

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    Sounds like total bollocks, to be honest.
    Which bit? I can believe Tory HQ are in meltdown and Ministers blaming each other, but I think everyone was resigned to that already and so I don't believe senior staff have gone to ground or the PM refusing calls.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109

    Afternoon
    .Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1 Loser

    Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

    Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

    Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

    ANME SNP £25 13/8

    If the Lib Dems can’t take Frome, why do they even bother.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772

    It's one of the most enduring principles in our great unwritten constitution that the Cambridge educated are no longer allowed to be prime minister.

    And rightly so. ;)
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    I’d trust that twitter feed as soon as I’d trust a lunatic with my John Thomas and a pair of rusty shears.
  • Options
    I hope Farage gets voted in as an MP, as that is going to blow the minds of the Reform voting conspiracy loons that have been giving me jip all day about pencils in polling booths and how a vote for STARNAK is a vote for Ukrainian domination and the WEF.
    Ol' Nige becoming part of the gravy train just won't compute.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627
    edited July 4
    Taz said:

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    I’d trust that twitter feed as soon as I’d trust a lunatic with my John Thomas and a pair of rusty shears.
    ...love the turn of phrase there...

    :blush:
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449

    Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?

    It started out "brisk", passed "lively" and is heading towards "coquettish".
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,250
    edited July 4
    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    Andy_JS said:

    If we had the French voting system the Tories would possibly be in danger of being reduced to 25 to 50 seats.

    Les RepublicaTories.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372

    Harold Wilson wasn't a lawyer, and was one of the best, and most successful, leaders Labour have ever had.

    Non lawyer Harold Wilson won elections against two other non lawyers ( and lost one to the same non-lawyer)

    @TheScreamingEagles analysis still (just about) holds.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited July 4
    Has anyone considered what a Reform “Shadow Cabinet” looks like?

    Anne Widdecome surely overdue a position in the Lords as Shadow Minister for Being Fucking Batshit.

    Though I fancy she’d face stiff competition among her fellow Refukkers for that role.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Dopermean said:

    I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.

    I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.

    Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.

    The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
    I think its some weird transplanting of second hand ideas of american elections to the British context, where everything can be challenged (and even then it's not as though any potential error would mean voiding a result). I don't think even most political people have any idea how an election is actually challeneged, and that it seems very improbable entire elections get thrown out due to minor errors which don't meaningfully affect things.

    See also any pseudo Jan 6th scenario - albeit much more a fringe idea - even though our election will be done and dusted by this time tomorrow, making any kind of 'stop the steal' kind of movement much harder to organise.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    edited July 4
    kle4 said:

    There's always a place for lawyers.

    Can you imagine a world without lawyers?



    Edit: Beaten to it by kyf_100, but I'm leaving the picture up!
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

    Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

    Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772

    Dopermean said:

    I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.

    I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.

    Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.

    The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
    Is it not possible taht she wins by a few hundred votes and her opponent makes the protest and forces the petition?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.

    Makes sense to me - polling could be wrong, but a lot of it would suggest under 100 but people struggle to believe it.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited July 4
    Leon said:

    Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

    I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
    I don’t know if it’s any good though.

    Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568
    mwadams said:

    Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?

    It started out "brisk", passed "lively" and is heading towards "coquettish".
    Dunny-on-the-wold ?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Leon said:

    Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30

    Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/04/manchester-teacher-who-groomed-two-boys-jailed

    Aren't the rules different in France?
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,907
    edited July 4

    Afternoon
    .Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1 Loser

    Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

    Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

    Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

    ANME SNP £25 13/8

    With you on ANME, also keeping an eye on thye tasty Alloa & Grangemouth Lab £28 15/8. I am convinced that the ultra-woke John Nicholson will lose votes to Alba's Kenny MacAskill (on a chicken run) and ex-Alba (!) Eva Comrie, the womens' rights champion.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    277th ranked Jacob Fearnley going toe-to-toe with Djokovic at the end of set four.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

    I guarantee if they are the only two they will not be in the same party in 5 years time. Anderson has gone from party to party in the last 7 years, Farage doesn't like to share the spotlight, and Reform even compared to other parties is not cohesive politically.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    Taz said:

    This may fir in with reform shortening odds.

    Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback
    12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024
    ·
    10.7K
    Views

    https://x.com/BrexitFutureUK/status/1808832402845806648

    I’d trust that twitter feed as soon as I’d trust a lunatic with my John Thomas and a pair of rusty shears.
    ...love the turn of phrase there...

    :blush:
    Shamelessly nicked from Blackadder III? As I’m sure viewcode would know.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

    Anderson will have defected to the Workers Party by Christmas.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Heathener said:

    Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

    Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

    Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.

    The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.

    After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

    Anderson will have defected to the Workers Party by Christmas.
    Or defecated.

    One or t’other.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    edited July 4
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

    I think Anderson will win. BCS is, contrary to my earlier thoughts in the month, going to outperform here (Still doubt he wins mind) picking up Reform voters as he's the incumbent and quite Reformy - Anderson will surely pick up all the Reform votes (He is Reform after all) and the Tory vote rather than the official Tory candidate as he's the incumbent.
  • Options
    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    kle4 said:

    Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.

    Makes sense to me - polling could be wrong, but a lot of it would suggest under 100 but people struggle to believe it.
    Yeah i think the yougov mrp could be pretty much dead on. That leaves the question of how well reform will do though.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

    Anderson will have defected to the Workers Party by Christmas.
    Nah, he'll form his own party.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617

    Does anyone know if the voting is brisk?

    It was in my case - I've been writing the letter "X" since I was a little boy, and am damned good at it. So I was in and out of there in seconds.
    Even I, with my damaged hand-and -finger control can manage an X. Might not manage a repeatable signature though!
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    Leon said:

    Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

    I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
    I don’t know if it’s any good though.

    Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
    Jonathan Meades On France is a superb dissection of the country.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories are sending this message to supporters.

    "We’re getting reports from our teams on the ground. And the more reports we get, the more it looks like turnout is higher than expected. That means we could have a MUCH better chance than polls have suggested So if you haven’t voted yet, now’s the time to get out > Don't forget to bring Photo ID. You can see which forms of ID are acceptable (here).

    Yours,
    CCHQ Data Team"

    "Seems like a reliable source"...
  • Options
    EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 67
    Farage and Anderson means 5 more years of Steve Bray. Careful what you wish for.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    carnforth said:

    277th ranked Jacob Fearnley going toe-to-toe with Djokovic at the end of set four.

    Toe to toe? Nice to see two players coming to the net.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Farooq said:

    21:59. London. Sir Keir Starmer is speaking.

    "During this campaign, I've talked often about the fact my father was a toolmaker."
    [amused glances between various journalists]

    "Well, I thought I'd bring a couple of his old tools along with me this evening..."
    [assistant walks onto the stage bearing a large black duffel bag; puzzled smiles from the journalists]

    "...so you can see what my Labour government..."
    [Starmer reaches into the bag with both hands. The clock ticks over to 10pm]

    "...will do"
    [He holds aloft a hammer and a sickle]

    For one horrible moment I thought it was going to be product placement for a couple of Leon's creations.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson — the odd couple. Farage might privately prefer to be the only RefUK MP rather than being saddled with Anderson for 5 years on the Commons benches.

    I guarantee if they are the only two they will not be in the same party in 5 years time. Anderson has gone from party to party in the last 7 years, Farage doesn't like to share the spotlight, and Reform even compared to other parties is not cohesive politically.
    But it is Nigel who keeps creating parties, each successively designed to grant him more control.

    I’m expecting him to run for the “Nigel Farage’s True Reform, Featuring Nigel Farage, Performed and And Written by Nigel Farage…Party.” in the 2030s.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

    I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
    I don’t know if it’s any good though.

    Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
    I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one

    If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    edited July 4

    Heathener said:

    Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

    Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

    Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.

    The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.

    After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
    After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.

    Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022

    kle4 said:

    Conservatives 100 to 149 seat band has just moved out in price only marginally but still. Sub 100 seats now gone to most likely.

    Makes sense to me - polling could be wrong, but a lot of it would suggest under 100 but people struggle to believe it.
    Yeah i think the yougov mrp could be pretty much dead on. That leaves the question of how well reform will do though.
    We'll know fairly early on I think, Basildon and Billericay was projected reform by an earlier MRP of theirs (Not sure if the current one does) and they're projected 18% in Blyth and Ashington - though that might be up in their latest MRP now.
  • Options
    SteveSSteveS Posts: 145
    No lawyer has ever lost to a non-lawyer, until: https://xkcd.com/1122/
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 4
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30

    Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/04/manchester-teacher-who-groomed-two-boys-jailed

    Aren't the rules different in France?
    The rumours surrounding the couple are wild. And I am hearing them direct from French people with knowledge

    I won’t trouble your legal dept but if half of them are true…
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

    I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
    I don’t know if it’s any good though.

    Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
    I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one

    If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories
    My go to book for travelling in France is "The Wines and Winelands of France - Geological Journeys". Wine and rocks. What more can you ask for :)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….

    I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback.
    I don’t know if it’s any good though.

    Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
    I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one

    If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories
    I've read that one. A good read, and it felt very even handed about his complex character.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    So, will the far right break through in the election?

    In France?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    A Lawyer with his briefcase can steal as much as a hundred men with guns.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    edited July 4
    🔴 Trump 49% (+11)
    🔵 Harris 38%

    🔴 Trump 43% (+6)
    🔵 Biden 37%

    This will probably shorten Gavin Gruesome to evens or some such in the presidential market. In reality polls like this strengthen Biden, he only has to outperform Harris !
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,893
    edited July 4
    While we're waiting:

    Markets nervous as we wait the exit poll

    https://web.archive.org/web/20061022231659/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/05/markets-nervous-as-we-wait-the-exit-poll/

    (Comment 300 is a classic of the genre.)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429
    Farooq said:

    21:59. London. Sir Keir Starmer is speaking.

    "During this campaign, I've talked often about the fact my father was a toolmaker."
    [amused glances between various journalists]

    "Well, I thought I'd bring a couple of his old tools along with me this evening..."
    [assistant walks onto the stage bearing a large black duffel bag; puzzled smiles from the journalists]

    "...so you can see what my Labour government..."
    [Starmer reaches into the bag with both hands. The clock ticks over to 10pm]

    "...will do"
    [He holds aloft a hammer and a sickle]

    You mean this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOV32P59-yI
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,637

    Heathener said:

    Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.

    Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.

    Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.

    The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.

    After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
    After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.

    Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
    I pay good money for an enforced hour in a rubber suit :#
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    edited July 4
    With over four hours to go, anybody who thinks they have a clue about turnout is probably talking nonsense.

    Having said that: I'd expect voting between 6pm and 10pm to be significantly higher than it was in 2019. Much easier to be motivated to wander down to the polling station on a summer evening than in mid-December. The parties' late knocker-uppers may also be more successful in persuading recalcitrant voters to get off their backsides.
This discussion has been closed.