We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
Hearing reports it's all kicking off at Tory HQ as they are in meltdown. Cabinet ministers are trying to blame each other and potential rivals for whatever is left. Senior staff gone to ground and Sunak refusing to answer calls too. Tories on the ground reporting v dire feedback 12:57 PM · Jul 4, 2024 · 10.7K Views
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
It struck me earlier that the perfect setting to watch the election, live, would be on a longhaul overnight flight (in business or first for comfort reasons). It would need live TV on the screen and access to WiFi.
Election watching is essentially a solitary affair. It's also one that suits a bit of sedentary binging on food and drink. On a flight you're seated somewhere comfortable where you can drift in and out of sleep with the screen in front of you. Have a nice dinner in the lounge or onboard with a range of wines. Then watch the exit poll. Have a nap for a couple of hours. Wake up and watch the seat announcements cascading in. You can order drinks and snacks whenever you fancy just by pressing a button. Champagne or whisky, or if it's a really bad night a few shots of vodka.
Then roll out half asleep at Heathrow and head to the arrivals lounge for a reviving shower and breakfast.
Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30
Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Fenby’s history of France is a good, readable wide-ranging overview, steady rather than juicy. I’d also recommend Humbert’s memoirs of occupied France. Gildea has written the definitive, almost academic history of the French resistance, but the book is heavy going. And there’s always Schama’s study of the French Revolution, which essentially made his name as a popular historian.
Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30
Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)
What are you on about? No one disputes that Mme Macron was a teacher at a school when she met schoolboy Manny Macron. Memories differ as to his precise age - somewhere between 14-17
In most countries this would be a scandal, possibly a court case. In France they are the first couple, tho the darker rumours swirl closer
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
However, I will be heading out soon for my haircut, so will be seeing the action at two polling stations when I'm out and about. If there is anything to report, I'll report it.
I can report that the chair of Shipley CLP's dog has been to the polling station, and was duly photographed.
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.
Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.
The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
Is it not possible taht she wins by a few hundred votes and her opponent makes the protest and forces the petition?
The petition would have virtually no chance of success for the reasons I've said, and she'd remain an MP unless and until it was successful.
The courts just aren't going to uphold an election petition for errors by the returning officer (with no misconduct by the elected member) unless the effect of that error is clear and obvious, which it just can't be in these circumstances. There is a long history of election petitions and the position is clear. No election is perfectly run (indeed, some returning officers are negligent), and some are very close. That's not enough to uphold an election petition unless it is wholly clear that it changed the result.
It's journos not knowing the law and getting carried away.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
Nobody sane could keep it up that long.
I believe he is being paid. That probably means he'll find something else to protest about after the election.
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback. I don’t know if it’s any good though.
Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one
If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories
I read a fantastic book about the myth of the French Resistance, but I can't remember what it was called.
Apparently, lawyers also need good proof readers ?
..In 1945 and 1950, Clement Attlee defeated non lawyer and Winston Churchill which included the landslide of 1945. Attlee also won the popular vote in 1951 which counts as a victory for the purpose of this article.
Starmer is set to continue prove lawyers are awesome trend by winning potentially Labour’s greatest ever victory tonight...
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Alastair Horne's trilogy on 1871, 1914 and 1940? I wonder what other PBers would think?
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Big warning because I haven't actually read it. Fernand Braudel who wrote Mediterranean, widely regarded as the most important history book published in the last 100 years, produced two volumes before he died on The Identity of France. Might be worth a read.
I think lawyers are fairly divided as to whether Braverman counts as a lawyer, though she would be my pick from that list. Particularly if Badenoch is prevented from standing for leader by the postal ballot fiasco.
I wasn't on PB for that thread but the election petition stuff strikes me as complete twaddle. Election petitions (outside the area of misconduct by the winning candidate) have succeeded due to obvious counting/transcription errors and for wrongful exclusion or inclusion of votes where, quantifiably, the impact on the result is clear. An error in sending out postal votes simply wouldn't fall into that.
Returning officers can run elections more or less well... unless it's obvious how it would have affected the result, the courts are incredibly reluctant to intervene and just aren't going to uphold the petition. In this case, even less so as evidence tends to suggest postal votes tend to favour the Tories.
The only way this could affect Badenoch, realistically, is if she narrowly lost on the night when a few more postal votes might have helped her - which is possible at the very worst end of some MRPs, but highly unlikely.
Is it not possible taht she wins by a few hundred votes and her opponent makes the protest and forces the petition?
The petition would have virtually no chance of success for the reasons I've said, and she'd remain an MP unless and until it was successful.
The courts just aren't going to uphold an election petition for errors by the returning officer (with no misconduct by the elected member) unless the effect of that error is clear and obvious, which it just can't be in these circumstances. There is a long history of election petitions and the position is clear. No election is perfectly run (indeed, some returning officers are negligent), and some are very close. That's not enough to uphold an election petition unless it is wholly clear that it changed the result.
It's journos not knowing the law and getting carried away.
Wasn't the last candidate to try that one Gerry Malone in Winchester? That didn't turn out well for him!
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
Woman teacher goes to jail for “grooming” two 15 year old schoolboys when she was 30
Awkwardly, teacher Mme Macron was more like 40 when she allegedly “groomed” the then 15 year old schoolboy Emanuel Macron (some claim he was 16, others actually 14)
What are you on about? No one disputes that Mme Macron was a teacher at a school when she met schoolboy Manny Macron. Memories differ as to his precise age - somewhere between 14-17
In most countries this would be a scandal, possibly a court case. In France they are the first couple, tho the darker rumours swirl closer
No it wouldn't. It would be a talking point for opposition parties who have run out of mud.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
Yep but not to incite violence against him.
Straight out of the Nazi playbook, but you’d expect that from our Faragist
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
Yes I’d have five at the top of their expectations. It would be quite eye opening in itself. 15 would be a minor earthquake. The birth of a serious new party
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Fenby’s history of France is a good, readable wide-ranging overview, steady rather than juicy. I’d also recommend Humbert’s memoirs of occupied France.
Slightly more offbeat, but I enjoyed "The Ancient Paths" by Graham Robb. The kind of all encompassing mega theory that Leon would probably like, a bit like the style of Thor Heyrdahl. It's about the Celtic pre-Roman world, but overwhelmingly focused on Gaul.
My general election voting record now looks like this:
1997 - Lab
2001 - Didn't vote
2005 - Lib-Dem
2010 - Con
2015 - Con
2017 - Con
2019 - Con
2024... Lab
Welcome back, Comrade!
To be fair I was genuinely torn in the end and my pencil did hover over the Conservative box. Not because I want them to form the government but I want them to survive and be a decent Opposition to Labour. And I most certainly don't want that horrible grifter Farage to become the voice of the Right.
But in the end I decided I had to lend my vote to Labour this time as fundamentally it IS time for a change.
I would say this is the hardest general election for me though. I've been genuinely torn over the past few days and even up to casting my vote...
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
Yep but not to incite violence against him.
Straight out of the Nazi playbook, but you’d expect that from our Faragist
I’ve seen him be violently aggressive and intimidating to people - bullying and shouting. He’s quite a big guy and he’s threatening and boorish. I’m therefore amazed no one has turned around and punched his lights out. He could have no grounds for complaint, he dishes it out all the time
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Hilary Mantel is your friend. If you don't want the classics.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Fenby’s history of France is a good, readable wide-ranging overview, steady rather than juicy. I’d also recommend Humbert’s memoirs of occupied France.
Slightly more offbeat, but I enjoyed "The Ancient Paths" by Graham Robb. The kind of all encompassing mega theory that Leon would probably like, a bit like the style of Thor Heyrdahl. It's about the Celtic pre-Roman world, but overwhelmingly focused on Gaul.
The same author also wrote “The Discovery of France” which I’ve heard good things about.
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Have you done France: An Adventure History by Graham Robb, the bloke who wrote The Discovery of France?
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Fenby’s history of France is a good, readable wide-ranging overview, steady rather than juicy. I’d also recommend Humbert’s memoirs of occupied France.
Slightly more offbeat, but I enjoyed "The Ancient Paths" by Graham Robb. The kind of all encompassing mega theory that Leon would probably like, a bit like the style of Thor Heyrdahl. It's about the Celtic pre-Roman world, but overwhelmingly focused on Gaul.
I tried it but deeply disliked it. Too woo woo
I LOVED his book “the Discovery of France”. A masterpiece
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
It struck me earlier that the perfect setting to watch the election, live, would be on a longhaul overnight flight (in business or first for comfort reasons). It would need live TV on the screen and access to WiFi.
Election watching is essentially a solitary affair. It's also one that suits a bit of sedentary binging on food and drink. On a flight you're seated somewhere comfortable where you can drift in and out of sleep with the screen in front of you. Have a nice dinner in the lounge or onboard with a range of wines. Then watch the exit poll. Have a nap for a couple of hours. Wake up and watch the seat announcements cascading in. You can order drinks and snacks whenever you fancy just by pressing a button. Champagne or whisky, or if it's a really bad night a few shots of vodka.
Then roll out half asleep at Heathrow and head to the arrivals lounge for a reviving shower and breakfast.
Just as JRM was about to lose at his declaration, they’d turn the screens off for the captain’s safety announcement,..
With over four hours to go, anybody who thinks they have a clue about turnout is probably talking nonsense.
Having said that: I'd expect voting between 6pm and 10pm to be significantly higher than it was in 2019. Much easier to be motivated to wander down to the polling station on a summer evening than in mid-December. The parties' late knocker-uppers may also be more successful in persuading recalcitrant voters to get off their backsides.
On that basis, turnout in the West of Scotland should be about 30%. It’s like December here.
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.
Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
I pay good money for an enforced hour in a rubber suit
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
Big warning because I haven't actually read it. Fernand Braudel who wrote Mediterranean, widely regarded as the most important history book published in the last 100 years, produced two volumes before he died on The Identity of France. Might be worth a read.
How about Judt's The Burden of Responsibility ? Only a couple of hundred pages, and three biographies in one.
However, I will be heading out soon for my haircut, so will be seeing the action at two polling stations when I'm out and about. If there is anything to report, I'll report it.
I can report that the chair of Shipley CLP's dog has been to the polling station, and was duly photographed.
There’s a storm incoming, it’s breezy here already, and there’s a severe wind warning out for early tomorrow morning.
By my calculations Labour should pass the winning post of 326 seats at around 4:15 to 4:30am
And how many seats will the Tories have by then? That would be some heaping of the humiliation if Labour cross the winning post with Tories yet to get off the mark. Don't know if that's remotely plausible....
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
From an interesting Commons Library briefing I was surprised to see the number of lawyers in the House of Commons has reduced from 117 in the 1951-55 Parliament (93 Barristers and 24 Solicitors) to 89 in the 2015-17 Parliament (38 Barristers and 51 Solicitors). There were still 7 former miners in the 2015-17 Parliament which seems quite high.
Can anyone recommend a really good book about French history, politics or military or sex, or a biography of some amazing French person, or just about any great non fiction book on France? I’m off there on Sunday and I’d love some thematic reading….
I’ve just bought that Petain on trial book in paperback. I don’t know if it’s any good though.
Otherwise, if you’re interested at all in French politics since 1900, La Vie en Bleu by Rod Kedward is excellent.
I was just considering that Petain book! Thanks - I’ll check the politics one
If you need a biography of Napoleon I thoroughly recommend Zamoyski. Smart and evocative and full of juicy stories
I read a fantastic book about the myth of the French Resistance, but I can't remember what it was called.
Kochanski’s recent European overview of wartime resistance is a good, authoritative read, covering France thoroughly as well as Italy, Poland, Norway and Yugoslavia, among others. Some fascinating nuggets in there. The story of the disastrous British espionage in the Netherlands was a new one for me.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
The Liberals formed the government(s) of 1910. Both Asquith and Lloyd George were lawyers. The period between 1916 and 1922 is complex but however you play it out, both lost to the non-lawyers Bonar Law, Baldwin and MacDonald.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
But he DOES abuse people and threaten assault. He also goes around people’s houses and shouts at their families with his stupid foghorn
He’s not a protestor he’s a public nuisance and I’m amazed he hasn’t been arrested
He’s a such a fucking arse ache. I hope someone decks him, tbh
Totally, but typically, uncalled for by you and @Taz
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
There is a right to protest, but protest has its limits, like anything else. I believe he is mentally unwell, genuinely. And someone is presumably paying him to do what he does.
I’m all for good honest protest but he’s crossed the line into being an obnoxious prat. I’m frankly amazed no one has given him a slap. He’s certainly earned one
There is a right to protest plus a right to criticise the protester, surely.
criticise yes, but not abuse him or even threaten assault, or even use anti-terrorism law to shut him up.
What if he's causing a public nuisance?
one person's view of a public nuisance is not the same as another....
I still remember the absolute disbelief here at the exit poll of 2017. That was hilarious.
it's a shame the comment numbers aren't there nowadays, it made it easier to bookmark a position if you had to leave for a few minutes.
The timestamp under the name in each comment is a link, you can use that instead.
yes, but sometimes we say so much in the same minute...
No, it’s an actual hyperlink to that specific comment. So simply copy the link somewhere, and browsing to it will take you back to exactly the same comment.
I still remember the absolute disbelief here at the exit poll of 2017. That was hilarious.
it's a shame the comment numbers aren't there nowadays, it made it easier to bookmark a position if you had to leave for a few minutes.
The timestamp under the name in each comment is a link, you can use that instead.
yes, but sometimes we say so much in the same minute...
No, it’s an actual hyperlink to that specific comment. So simply copy the link somewhere, and browsing to it will take you back to exactly the same comment.
Comments
I dislike the Tories but I despise this prick. Once the Tories are toast hopefully he soda,off and gets a job.
https://x.com/snb19692/status/1808867114805019012?s=61
MRP Final Update
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5)
Conservative: 68 (+4)
Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 14 (+1)
Reform UK: 15 (+2)
Green Party: 4 (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today.
https://x.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600
Election watching is essentially a solitary affair. It's also one that suits a bit of sedentary binging on food and drink. On a flight you're seated somewhere comfortable where you can drift in and out of sleep with the screen in front of you. Have a nice dinner in the lounge or onboard with a range of wines. Then watch the exit poll. Have a nap for a couple of hours. Wake up and watch the seat announcements cascading in. You can order drinks and snacks whenever you fancy just by pressing a button. Champagne or whisky, or if it's a really bad night a few shots of vodka.
Then roll out half asleep at Heathrow and head to the arrivals lounge for a reviving shower and breakfast.
My general election voting record now looks like this:
1997 - Lab
2001 - Didn't vote
2005 - Lib-Dem
2010 - Con
2015 - Con
2017 - Con
2019 - Con
2024... Lab
I'd suggest that a possibly-paedophile-adjacent-POTUS is a more awkward question than the WIFE of a nearly-wrapped-up President of France.
Especially as new files continue to be released on Trump's Epstein association.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/14/teen-models-powerful-men-when-donald-trump-hosted-look-of-the-year
2005 - LD, Cov South
2010 - Tory, Sheffield Central
2015 - Green, NE Derbs
2017 - Tory, NE Derbs
2019 - Tory, Bassetlaw
2024 - Tory, Bassetlaw
Have voted Con, LD, UKIP and Labour in locals.
This is a democracy and Steve Bray is allowed to protest.
Besides, he should be knighted (if you believe in honours, which I don’t) for the brilliant accompaniment to Rishi Sunak’s election announcement.
Thank goodness for the right to protest. Something those of you on the Far Right like Leon would suppress. Black shirts here we come.
In most countries this would be a scandal, possibly a court case. In France they are the first couple, tho the darker rumours swirl closer
I'm referring to the breeze, not the voting.
However, I will be heading out soon for my haircut, so will be seeing the action at two polling stations when I'm out and about. If there is anything to report, I'll report it.
I can report that the chair of Shipley CLP's dog has been to the polling station, and was duly photographed.
The courts just aren't going to uphold an election petition for errors by the returning officer (with no misconduct by the elected member) unless the effect of that error is clear and obvious, which it just can't be in these circumstances. There is a long history of election petitions and the position is clear. No election is perfectly run (indeed, some returning officers are negligent), and some are very close. That's not enough to uphold an election petition unless it is wholly clear that it changed the result.
It's journos not knowing the law and getting carried away.
I believe he is being paid. That probably means he'll find something else to protest about after the election.
..In 1945 and 1950, Clement Attlee defeated non lawyer and Winston Churchill which included the landslide of 1945. Attlee also won the popular vote in 1951 which counts as a victory for the purpose of this article.
Starmer is set to continue prove lawyers are awesome trend by winning potentially Labour’s greatest ever victory tonight...
Jesus, 2005 was another world
She's not the President.
Straight out of the Nazi playbook, but you’d expect that from our Faragist
Just wondered where she went to. So sad for the Party, and country, that these capable One Nation tories were hounded out.
But in the end I decided I had to lend my vote to Labour this time as fundamentally it IS time for a change.
I would say this is the hardest general election for me though. I've been genuinely torn over the past few days and even up to casting my vote...
But now, it is done. Time for tea.
The Hollly Willoughby case is both bizarre and disturbing, and I'm glad this arsehole was caught.
But, you know the weirdest thing? I wrote a story, last year, which is almost a word for word account of what took place here.
Sunak: 34.5%
Labour: 25.7%
Reform: 22.8%
I LOVED his book “the Discovery of France”. A masterpiece
Only a couple of hundred pages, and three biographies in one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
2010 - Lib Dem
2015 - Lib Dem
2017 - Con
2019 - Lib Dem
2024 - Lab
"Survation.
@Survation
MRP Final Update
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5)
Conservative: 68 (+4)
Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 14 (+1)
Reform UK: 15 (+2)
Green Party: 4 (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
https://x.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600
Quite surprised tbh and I'm not sure how to interpret it. So I won't
He’s not a protestor he’s a public nuisance and I’m amazed he hasn’t been arrested
*I am joking, I have no idea if this means a Reform surge.
that's democracy...
If Labour are handed a blank cheque, they will use their supermajority to tax you more for the rest of your life.
3:23 PM · Jul 4, 2024
·
310.9K
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https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1808869283637678140