Happy 4th of July to my American friends. Please know that should your republic experiment prove unsuccessful as it is already looking, we, the magnanimous citizens of Great Britain, will welcome you back into the realm provided you never defile our tea again you absolute plebs."
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.
Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
Okay, anyone who can sleep in helicopters is officially mad. You must have the world’s best noise-cancelling headphones.
Not allowed them. We wear the provided ear defenders and ear plugs as well. The vibration is a bigger issue but once you get used to it it is not so bad. A few yeasr ago I worked out I had done somewhere north of 750 chopper flights.
Any splashdowns? A colleague was on a chopper in GOM and a local told him he'd had 2 or 3 on GOM trips.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Probably between that and ITV, then I'll settle on one.
I'll be drinking coffee and painting futuristic toy soldiers to pass the time.
I'll have coffee (plus more in a flask so I don't have to leave the room), nibbles and all my bets laid out on the table, powerbank to keep my phone charged, calculator and pencil, sharpener in case it goes blunt, alarm clock in case I nod off - at which point Mrs Stocky will come in , roll her eyes, and go to bed.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
A compliment for the UK: I have always enjoyed the announcements of results, with the candidates standing side by side, with their rosettes, as if they were school children waiting for awards.
It's the lack of excitement and hoopla that I like, as if everyone there was saying we're so good at elections that we don't need to make a big fuss.
(Sadly, something similar doesn't seem practical in the US, because of -- among other things -- scale problems.)
I think I'm correct in stating that the UK and Ireland are the only countries in the world where election results are announced in this way, and where all the votes for a particular constituency/district are counted in one room.
Happy 4th of July to my American friends. Please know that should your republic experiment prove unsuccessful as it is already looking, we, the magnanimous citizens of Great Britain, will welcome you back into the realm provided you never defile our tea again you absolute plebs."
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
Two takes from Survation - who are on the outer edge of the predictors (Labour high, Tory low), for innumerates like me who want early result indications:
Basildon: Survation say Labour squeak home. Broxbourne: Tory and Labour chances dead level.
LOL. Thanks for that. I had forgotten that minute after the exit poll and the reactions. Really funny to see them again. So many expletives from all sides.
They'd kill for the same result now. Being left as the largest party in a hung parliament would be seen as an unebelievable success rather than an epochal failure.
I reckon right now they would kill to be the second largest party in a hung Parliament to be honest.
LOL. Thanks for that. I had forgotten that minute after the exit poll and the reactions. Really funny to see them again. So many expletives from all sides.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
NordVPN probably.
BBC America is not showing the election, weirdly.
Sky News Youtube channel should be available everywhere.
21:59. Yorkshire. Rishi Sunak is speaking to some journalists [who really wish they were at the Labour presser instead]
"The important thing is that a vote for Labour is a mandate for higher taxes. That's what's at stake here. Labour will raise taxes. You will pay higher taxes under Labour. Labour is the party of high tax and their high tax plans mean you will be paying higher taxes. If you don't want higher taxes, you must not give a mandate to high tax Labour, the party of high tax." [It's now 22:00. Rishi's phone buzzes. It's the exit poll. Labour have a huge majority]
"I'm disappointed by the outcome but it's important to say that this result is in no way a mandate for them to raise taxes"
Rishi's wife will pay higher taxes is what he means.
Rishi’s wife will never be paying higher taxes - she’ll be formally living somewhere else by next week.
both of them I suspect. If he isn't PM he can become a Non Dom
No - he can become non resident. He was born here so his domicile is the UK - it can be given up, but it takes time & effort - and acquiring a domicile somewhere else will involve being taxed there.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
Yes and dont forget that many elections have been relatively boring think 2001, 2005.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Tonight I will be at the count where Douglas Ross, Andrew Bowie and hopefully Stephen Flynn all lose…
Good luck, but go prepared to be disappointed. Standing in a GE is an activity with very little relationship between effort and reward, let alone merit and reward.
As a matter of simple mathematics, if the LibDems are forecast to win a shedload of MPs on barely more than a tenth of the vote, LibDems everywhere else are going to poll extraordinarily badly. Just think of your lack of votes as doing your bit to make the sums work out better for the target seats!
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
Nah. 2016 Referendum was most dramatic and important.
Had it gone a different way, this would have been an election for a glorified County Council.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
1. You only have to be 18 months older than my mother, to have been alive for the 1945 election. 2. We all want to see the photo of that 30yo Macallan.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I haven't been drinking a lot this year, and 2pm is too early to start.
So I'm planning on opening a bottle of California chardonnay at 4pm when I settle down to watch the TV coverage seriously.
How wil you watch it from California? VPN? Os is BBC America showing it?
NordVPN probably.
NordVPN is the best right now. I dunno what happened to ExpressVPN, I guess someone cracked their code. It's useless now
Edit to add: I'm slightly surprised there isn't a tiny cable channel showing the British elex live. With 340 million people there must be a few hundred thousand politics geeks and UK expats who would like to follow it in real time, with all the drama, and in the English language - and at a more friendly hour than in the UK itself
Enough to garner a small but profitable slice of advertising?
It is surprising because he's spent the last 20 years saying that the Tory party needs to be destroyed. Now that it might be happening, he's changed his mind.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
Two takes from Survation - who are on the outer edge of the predictors (Labour high, Tory low), for innumerates like me who want early result indications:
Basildon: Survation say Labour squeak home. Broxbourne: Tory and Labour chances dead level.
If the Tories can't win Broxbourne they might as well give up completely.
It is surprising because he's spent the last 20 years saying that the Tory party needs to be destroyed. Now that it might be happening, he's changed his mind.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
I’ve a bottle of Champagne to be opened when you lose your bet, you should take the first shot of your Macallan 30yo at the same time.
I'm hoping my bet with @TimS will pay for my pricey Rioja
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote) 2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority! 3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW 4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc 5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them 6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still) 7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
Nah. 2016 Referendum was most dramatic and important.
Had it gone a different way, this would have been an election for a glorified County Council.
I wouldn't argue with that, but I specifically said ELECTION
The Brexit ref was indeed bigger, it shook the world, not just the UK
By my calculations Labour should pass the winning post of 326 seats at around 4:15 to 4:30am
And how many seats will the Tories have by then? That would be some heaping of the humiliation if Labour cross the winning post with Tories yet to get off the mark. Don't know if that's remotely plausible....
Oddly enough the Tories will probably have won about two-thirds of the seats they're going to win overall at that time, however many that is.
Happy 4th of July to my American friends. Please know that should your republic experiment prove unsuccessful as it is already looking, we, the magnanimous citizens of Great Britain, will welcome you back into the realm provided you never defile our tea again you absolute plebs."
"Our tea"? IRC the stuff was shipped from India or China by the monopolistic East India Company, via the connivance of corrupt mostly Tory British insiders.
And "citizens of Great Britain"? Or does KK not recognize UK claim to Northern Ireland? And replacing "subjects" with "citizens "is copy-catting American usage since 1776.
Finally, note that MAGA Republicans led by Trump and his fellow travelers including most of SCOTUS are ideologically opposed to democracy, arguing that USA is properly a non-democratic (small d) REPUBLIC. Thus such nutbaggery as giving POTUS (at least Republican ones) monarchical powers, and wanting to let go back to having state legislatures elect US Senators AND presidential electors.
Tonight I will be at the count where Douglas Ross, Andrew Bowie and hopefully Stephen Flynn all lose…
I like the way they hold all the counts for Aberdeenshire in the same room.
It takes a very long time to count them all though. I preferred it when it was just Gordon and the count was in Inverurie Academy or the town hall. Declaration closer to 2am than 5.30 like last time.
What's the oddest polling station people here have voted at? I once voted in a polling station that was literally someone's front room.
On my bike ride at 11.00 this morning I passed a local village pub (The White Swan, Conington), which is also the polling station. A couple of people were sitting on a bench outside drinking something. And on a drive through rural Bedfordshire, there were polling station signs outside a church and another outside a village hall.
My own polling station is a cricket pavilion. In fact, both the village's cricket pavilions are polling station today, as is what passes for the village hall.
My polling station is a tiny portacabin outside the DVLA building. Can we swap?!
Voting done. It was the most brisk I've ever seen it in any election I've ever voted in, but then again it was about 5:30pm.
For the first time in twenty years voted red instead of blue.
As well as a negative vote against Sunak and the incompetence of the Tories in recent years, that's a positive vote for Starmer and Reeves promising planning reform and more housing.
I fully expect to be disappointed, but if we get planning reform, its exactly what this country needs - and policies over party, I'm willing to lend my vote to Labour if they're going to do the right thing.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
No itv is generally better and faster though i will watch the exit poll on the bbc.
I’m somewhat off-put by the the 3 panellists they have selected:
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Nicola Sturgeon
Sturgeon is an inspired choice. I LOATHE her Nat politics but she's articulate and smart, even as she is quite provocative (which is a good thing on TV). I am genuinely interested to hear her opinion and I cannot predict what it will be, whereas I can with the other two centrist dads. She's a great recruit
It is surprising because he's spent the last 20 years saying that the Tory party needs to be destroyed. Now that it might be happening, he's changed his mind.
He just says whatever can make him the most miserable.
Happy 4th of July to my American friends. Please know that should your republic experiment prove unsuccessful as it is already looking, we, the magnanimous citizens of Great Britain, will welcome you back into the realm provided you never defile our tea again you absolute plebs."
Happy 4th of July to my American friends. Please know that should your republic experiment prove unsuccessful as it is already looking, we, the magnanimous citizens of Great Britain, will welcome you back into the realm provided you never defile our tea again you absolute plebs."
Finally, note that MAGA Republicans led by Trump and his fellow travelers including most of SCOTUS are ideologically opposed to democracy, arguing that USA is properly a non-democratic (small d) REPUBLIC. Thus such nutbaggery as giving POTUS (at least Republican ones) monarchical powers, and wanting to let go back to having state legislatures elect US Senators AND presidential electors.
You mean they want them "elected" much the same way that EU commissioners are "elected"
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
We've been through this, petal. I earn more than the PM (by salary!). I just had lunch with my agent at the Groucho, today, where we discussed the likely screen adaptation of my flint knapping memoirs, and the worldwide sales of my new flint knapping guide, already bought by several territories (Poland, Finland, Germany, etc). Sorry
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
I was thinking of trying C4 coverage. As well as Rory and Alistair Campbell, they will have Emily Maitlis, whom I like a lot.
Question is whether they deploy the infrastructure to stay on top of the results and analysis, or whether you’re basically watching a chat show with the news being fed from someone in the next room watching the BBC?
The Conservative Party Seats market with bf will be worth keeping tabs on.
Currently:
50-99 2.02 100-149 2.84 150-199 9.2
Hmm… quite tempted by that 150-199. My own prediction is below that - in the 120s - but enough could go just right in just enough seats to get them to 150, fairly easily.
Voting done. It was the most brisk I've ever seen it in any election I've ever voted in, but then again it was about 5:30pm.
For the first time in twenty years voted red instead of blue.
As well as a negative vote against Sunak and the incompetence of the Tories in recent years, that's a positive vote for Starmer and Reeves promising planning reform and more housing.
I fully expect to be disappointed, but if we get planning reform, its exactly what this country needs - and policies over party, I'm willing to lend my vote to Labour if they're going to do the right thing.
You, Bart, are my bellwether. I don't need opinion polls.
I've been telling everybody I know: Barty Bobs is voting Labour. Extraordinary. It's in the bag. Kudos to you.
But also well odds on (1.61) to get over 60 seats.
Obviously both are entirely possible but would seem extraordinarily efficient.
The sick thing is, that "efficiency" is still low. 9.5% of the seats on 11% of the vote. Shows how unbalanced our system really is that this is an achievement (and it really is).
That still strikes me as unlikely in terms of vote efficiency for the Lib Dems. Their high water mark was 62 seats in 2005, but that was on 22%. Conservatives are much lower now with the RefUK fissure, and Labour have been helpful in terms of tacit support for tactical voting and avoiding more than a couple of red on gold scraps. But it would be VERY efficient and there is value in below 60.
Tonight I will be at the count where Douglas Ross, Andrew Bowie and hopefully Stephen Flynn all lose…
Good luck, but go prepared to be disappointed. Standing in a GE is an activity with very little relationship between effort and reward, let alone merit and reward.
As a matter of simple mathematics, if the LibDems are forecast to win a shedload of MPs on barely more than a tenth of the vote, LibDems everywhere else are going to poll extraordinarily badly. Just think of your lack of votes as doing your bit to make the sums work out better for the target seats!
Point of order. Where did I claim that we would beat these three candidates? Ross is toast. When people are raising Duguid outside the polling station as their motivation to vote you know that Ross is toast.
I got introduced to a member of Banff and Buchan Tory Association. Across the square from their HQ. He was not voting for Ross either…
Managed an hour’s sleep. Would have liked a bit more. I may cat nap before 10pm. Or rather dog nap as I have two little doggies next to me in bed as I type.
Can I pull an all-nighter from here? Going to try.
Feeling it in my bones that this is going to be seismic for the tories.
The only time I can sleep in the daytime is after an overnight flight back from the US or Canada where I've been awake all the way. I stare with bafflement at those who doze off on the train in the middle of the afternoon.
After a poor night's sleep last night, little or none tonight, then having to stay up tomorrow evening for the footy, I might be getting a bit of a lie-in on Saturday.
After 36 years of shift working and 24/7 on call I can sleep anywhere, anytime. Helicopters are great - an hour or two's enforced napping in a rubber suit. Trains, although the fear of missing my stop causes some sleep issues. Cars as my wife normally drives and I doze.
Though oddly I never sleep more than about 5 hours in any 24. my normal non-travelling sleep pattern is 2am to 6 or 7 am.
Okay, anyone who can sleep in helicopters is officially mad. You must have the world’s best noise-cancelling headphones.
Not allowed them. We wear the provided ear defenders and ear plugs as well. The vibration is a bigger issue but once you get used to it it is not so bad. A few yeasr ago I worked out I had done somewhere north of 750 chopper flights.
Any splashdowns? A colleague was on a chopper in GOM and a local told him he'd had 2 or 3 on GOM trips.
Once in the Mediterranean off Tunisia. Not something I would like to repeat. Nearly had one off Norway about 20 years ago but we managed to limp to a nearby platform.
I've got a big TV, an iPad, a laptop, and my phone, all tuned to different aspects of the election. It's like NASA, but with much better wine
My dilemma is when to start drinking. I can't wait til the exit poll that's too far away. I think a gentle couple of G&Ts before supper ariund 8, then a hefty Malbec to go with the Singapore laksa (yes I know, non-canonical, sue me). Then I might go for a Grand Cru Bordeaux or a Gran Reserva Rioja to be slowly imbibed through the night, finishing with a slug of Macallan 30 year old and a Valium to knock me out til noon
TV. BBC for the theme tune. Mobile on PB.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
Don't you want to see the drama written on all those faces?
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
Firstly, of course we will return although it’s true that you may be dead before it happens, old man.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
We've been through this, petal. I earn more than the PM (by salary!). I just had lunch with my agent at the Groucho, today, where we discussed the likely screen adaptation of my flint knapping memoirs, and the worldwide sales of my new flint knapping guide, already bought by several territories (Poland, Finland, Germany, etc). Sorry
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
Petal???? Even for a seedy old roue like yourself that´s unneccessarily patronising..
The Groucho´s Bernard Manning, Ladies and Gentlemen... slightly less dead, but he´s here all week.
Voting done. It was the most brisk I've ever seen it in any election I've ever voted in, but then again it was about 5:30pm.
For the first time in twenty years voted red instead of blue.
As well as a negative vote against Sunak and the incompetence of the Tories in recent years, that's a positive vote for Starmer and Reeves promising planning reform and more housing.
I fully expect to be disappointed, but if we get planning reform, its exactly what this country needs - and policies over party, I'm willing to lend my vote to Labour if they're going to do the right thing.
You, Bart, are my bellwether. I don't need opinion polls.
I've been telling everybody I know: Barty Bobs is voting Labour. Extraordinary. It's in the bag. Kudos to you.
Barty and Gin voted Labour. Wish I'd had a bet on that double three years ago!
Tonight I will be at the count where Douglas Ross, Andrew Bowie and hopefully Stephen Flynn all lose…
Good luck, but go prepared to be disappointed. Standing in a GE is an activity with very little relationship between effort and reward, let alone merit and reward.
As a matter of simple mathematics, if the LibDems are forecast to win a shedload of MPs on barely more than a tenth of the vote, LibDems everywhere else are going to poll extraordinarily badly. Just think of your lack of votes as doing your bit to make the sums work out better for the target seats!
Point of order. Where did I claim that we would beat these three candidates?
I was simply referring to the vote shares. I don’t think anyone including yourself is expecting a win. I just think that LibDems away from the top targets are going to be seriously squeezed.
But also well odds on (1.61) to get over 60 seats.
Obviously both are entirely possible but would seem extraordinarily efficient.
The sick thing is, that "efficiency" is still low. 9.5% of the seats on 11% of the vote. Shows how unbalanced our system really is that this is an achievement (and it really is).
That still strikes me as unlikely in terms of vote efficiency for the Lib Dems. Their high water mark was 62 seats in 2005, but that was on 22%. Conservatives are much lower now with the RefUK fissure, and Labour have been helpful in terms of tacit support for tactical voting and avoiding more than a couple of red on gold scraps. But it would be VERY efficient and there is value in below 60.
The most insanely efficient was SNP in 2015. 56 seats on 4.7% of the vote.
Average winning vote share say 45%. That's 4.5% of total national vote in seats they win.
If their national vote share is 11%, that means they get 6.5% of total national vote in the other 90% of seats which is an average vote share of 7.2%.
Plausible but seems a stretch. Especially bearing in mind they are bound to have a fair number of near misses where their share is in the 30% area.
I don't believe their average winning share is going to be anywhere near 45%. If you look at Scotland - which was a four way split in 2019 and is probably the best comparison - they got:
37% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 40% in Edinburgh West 43% in North East Fife 45% in Orkney & Shetland (albeit the constituency is very small)
41% is probably a better average. And it may well be lower.
We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.
Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.
Final probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)"
Two takes from Survation - who are on the outer edge of the predictors (Labour high, Tory low), for innumerates like me who want early result indications:
Basildon: Survation say Labour squeak home. Broxbourne: Tory and Labour chances dead level.
If the Tories can't win Broxbourne they might as well give up completely.
Whatever the result there, it will be interesting, if it comes early. Labour (notional) need a 20 point swing; Reform are in the mix; predictors are all over the place, as here (a few days out of date)
I think I've voted every time I could for 61 years. Councils, Referenda, General Elections. The only time I can remember not doing so was when the Returning Officer wouldn't accept my signature on a postal ballot earlier this year. The first vote I cast was in the GE of 1959, when the qualifying age was 21.
With respect to your rejected postal ballot, IF you had been voting in Washington State, you would have received an official letter telling you your ballot was rejected due to mismatched signature, along with a form you could return with your signature, affirming that you were you and that your current scrawl is indeed your John Hancock.
Then if that sig matched the one on your return ballot envelope, your ballot would be accepted for counting, provided your response was received prior to official certification of the election.
Sorry you were disenfranchised due to your age & medical condition; unfortunately (and IMHO unnecessarily) you are NOT alone.
Tonight I will be at the count where Douglas Ross, Andrew Bowie and hopefully Stephen Flynn all lose…
Good luck, but go prepared to be disappointed. Standing in a GE is an activity with very little relationship between effort and reward, let alone merit and reward.
As a matter of simple mathematics, if the LibDems are forecast to win a shedload of MPs on barely more than a tenth of the vote, LibDems everywhere else are going to poll extraordinarily badly. Just think of your lack of votes as doing your bit to make the sums work out better for the target seats!
Point of order. Where did I claim that we would beat these three candidates? Ross is toast. When people are raising Duguid outside the polling station as their motivation to vote you know that Ross is toast.
I got introduced to a member of Banff and Buchan Tory Association. Across the square from their HQ. He was not voting for Ross either…
Comments
@KonstantinKisin
Happy 4th of July to my American friends. Please know that should your republic experiment prove unsuccessful as it is already looking, we, the magnanimous citizens of Great Britain, will welcome you back into the realm provided you never defile our tea again you absolute plebs."
https://x.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1808843921918747040
A colleague was on a chopper in GOM and a local told him he'd had 2 or 3 on GOM trips.
Probably switch the volume off on the TV unless something worth watching.
Or switch it off. During the referendum I switched off TV and got all my reports from PB as I got irritated by the windbags on the panel. You don't really need anything else.
I'm more confident than I was but far from certain
The way I see it this election is epochal and remarkable on several levels:
1. We may see the largest majority in British parliamentary history (and on a fairly modest vote)
2. We may see the death or near death of the most sucessful party in western democratic history, and from an 80 Seat majority!
3. We may see that same party overtaken as the Government or Opposition for the first time since the Jurassic Era, or the birth of @JackW
4. We may see a new Opposition party for the first time since etc etc
5. We may see the first birth of a genuine new big party, with a hefty vote, since the SDP, and with the potential to go further than them
6. We may see the crushing of the SNP (which seems relatively minor, in this context, but still)
7. We may see the sitting Prime Minister lose his seat, for the first time ever
Any more?
Potentially the the most dramatic election in anyone's lifetime. THIS IS IT
Basildon: Survation say Labour squeak home.
Broxbourne: Tory and Labour chances dead level.
Vote share band 10% to 11.99% is favourite.
But also well odds on (1.61) to get over 60 seats.
Obviously both are entirely possible but would seem extraordinarily efficient.
It's gonna be a very long 4 hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJUvTVdTMyY
2 screens scrambles my ADHD brain.
I LOVED the anguish of the Remainers, I drank their tears. It was cold cold lovely revenge after all their cheating and lying for decades
They will get their own revenge now, but I don't give a fuck. We Brexited, and we will never return
"WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT???????????"
https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1808561349884010933
As a matter of simple mathematics, if the LibDems are forecast to win a shedload of MPs on barely more than a tenth of the vote, LibDems everywhere else are going to poll extraordinarily badly. Just think of your lack of votes as doing your bit to make the sums work out better for the target seats!
Currently:
50-99 2.02
100-149 2.84
150-199 9.2
Had it gone a different way, this would have been an election for a glorified County Council.
2. We all want to see the photo of that 30yo Macallan.
Edit to add: I'm slightly surprised there isn't a tiny cable channel showing the British elex live. With 340 million people there must be a few hundred thousand politics geeks and UK expats who would like to follow it in real time, with all the drama, and in the English language - and at a more friendly hour than in the UK itself
Enough to garner a small but profitable slice of advertising?
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Nicola Sturgeon
https://www.thetimes.com/article/809cbe7e-e133-4a4e-ba9f-1876e8898687?shareToken=40c99ed9bd7ace8a86b52f7528077965
"Looks like it will be soft Brexit after all if this is the result, Hammond possibly PM but if the Tories do that UKIP will surge."
The Brexit ref was indeed bigger, it shook the world, not just the UK
And "citizens of Great Britain"? Or does KK not recognize UK claim to Northern Ireland? And replacing "subjects" with "citizens "is copy-catting American usage since 1776.
Finally, note that MAGA Republicans led by Trump and his fellow travelers including most of SCOTUS are ideologically opposed to democracy, arguing that USA is properly a non-democratic (small d) REPUBLIC. Thus such nutbaggery as giving POTUS (at least Republican ones) monarchical powers, and wanting to let go back to having state legislatures elect US Senators AND presidential electors.
Say they win 65 seats - ie 10% of seats.
Average winning vote share say 45%. That's 4.5% of total national vote in seats they win.
If their national vote share is 11%, that means they get 6.5% of total national vote in the other 90% of seats which is an average vote share of 7.2%.
Plausible but seems a stretch. Especially bearing in mind they are bound to have a fair number of near misses where their share is in the 30% area.
For the first time in twenty years voted red instead of blue.
As well as a negative vote against Sunak and the incompetence of the Tories in recent years, that's a positive vote for Starmer and Reeves promising planning reform and more housing.
I fully expect to be disappointed, but if we get planning reform, its exactly what this country needs - and policies over party, I'm willing to lend my vote to Labour if they're going to do the right thing.
Secondly, you were a Remainer until 20 metres from the polling station.
Nothing you post is believable and everything is about you. You’re a sad old man embittered because the world no longer wants to read your tawdry tales of male sexual predation.
https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1808599144153661534
Post work surge to vote is reminiscent of the Brexit referendum vote.
She also gave me brilliant gossip about Starmer, which might unsettle your feminist perspective on the Great Leader manque
I might switch over for a laugh, but no way for extended viewing.
Final averages:
Lab 39
Con 21.5
Ref 15.5
LD 11
Grn 6.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
I've been telling everybody I know: Barty Bobs is voting Labour. Extraordinary. It's in the bag.
Kudos to you.
I got introduced to a member of Banff and Buchan Tory Association. Across the square from their HQ. He was not voting for Ross either…
Unwatchable.
The Groucho´s Bernard Manning, Ladies and Gentlemen... slightly less dead, but he´s here all week.
Wish I'd had a bet on that double three years ago!
https://www.google.com/search?q=economist+biden&client=ms-android-google&sca_esv=e561d0ec59a4f4d7&sca_upv=1&udm=2&biw=412&bih=771&sxsrf=ADLYWIIL8AQX1TPwOFXo3c7RKM6d9LP3pw:1720113127624&ei=59eGZsfiJeaDhbIP78CekAk&oq=economist+biden&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIg9lY29ub21pc3QgYmlkZW4yBxAAGIAEGBgyBxAAGIAEGBhIyhJQtgVY2Q9wAHgAkAEAmAFmoAHyA6oBAzYuMbgBA8gBAPgBAZgCB6ACkgTCAgQQIxgnwgIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBcICBRAAGIAEmAMAiAYBkgcDNi4xoAfmDw&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#vhid=Ixd4j3fbFFo5GM&vssid=mosaic
37% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
40% in Edinburgh West
43% in North East Fife
45% in Orkney & Shetland (albeit the constituency is very small)
41% is probably a better average. And it may well be lower.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/constituencies/E14001139/
Then if that sig matched the one on your return ballot envelope, your ballot would be accepted for counting, provided your response was received prior to official certification of the election.
Sorry you were disenfranchised due to your age & medical condition; unfortunately (and IMHO unnecessarily) you are NOT alone.
Are you predicting a shock gain for RefUK? 😄