As a well travelled for flint knappers weekly, are you seriously saying you have never seen or been to a cheesecake factory in the US? You can't miss the gaudy buildings that are housed in. They are everywhere in the US.
Think Trump Tower....but you go to get a slightly better meal than most US chains and a huge piece of cheesecake. Thus, its the go to location for people for birthdays etc.
I have honestly missed it. And I travel in America a lot
These words must have different connotations in the USA. Honestly America is sometimes so foreign
Last time I was there I did note there was some new (to me) nationwide chain which actually did decent and not disgustingly large oversweet sandwiches. A bit like an American Pret. I forget the name but it was ok!
I’m back in September and I will try and seek out…. The cheesecake factory
As somebody who is well travelled and versed in high quality food, I am not sure you will enjoy the experience !!!
Tatton, Altrincham and Sale W and Macclesfield are neighbouring seats anyone of sane mind would for years have considered safe Tory seats for all time but demographic change and the surge in very affluent remainerish Manchester based professionals taking firmly against the Tories in the past few years and notably post Partygate and the Truss disaster, in my view makes fertile ground for Labour, alongside the likes of Cheadle and Hazel Grove which are also in the same environs and will without a shadow of doubt go Lib Dem for same reasons.
As a Manchester professional and north Manchester resident i talk about the 'Chorltonifcation' of the Greater Manchester hinterland as a vast swathe from Ramsbottom in the north to Knutsford in the south comes to resemble hipsterish Chorlton cum Hardy in south Manchester. Its all becoming quite uniform now with hipster beards and artisan bakeries everywhere you turn... which isn't good for Tories even before the present catastrophes began to unfold.
Tatton, Altrincham and Sale W and Macclesfield are neighbouring seats anyone of sane mind would for years have considered safe Tory seats for all time but demographic change and the surge in very affluent remainerish Manchester based professionals taking firmly against the Tories in the past few years and notably post Partygate and the Truss disaster, in my view makes fertile ground for Labour, alongside the likes of Cheadle and Hazel Grove which are also in the same environs and will without a shadow of doubt go Lib Dem for same reasons.
As a Manchester professional and north Manchester resident i talk about the 'Chorltonifcation' of the Greater Manchester hinterland as a vast swathe from Ramsbottom in the north to Knutsford in the south comes to resemble hipsterish Chorlton cum Hardy in south Manchester. Its all becoming quite uniform now with hipster beards and artisan bakeries everywhere you turn... which isn't good for Tories even before the present catastrophes began to unfold.
General Election Competition In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 152 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 110 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 0 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 2 5. Reform lose their deposit? 18 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 41,501 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 21,001
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 48 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 700 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 56
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? Grouping true indies as one... 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 143 14. Seats will Labour win? 415 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 41 16. Seats will the SNP win? 23 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 8 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 89
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 27% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 36% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 19% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 37% 25. Will Speaker get? 65%
Indeed I’ll develop that argument. One of the great problems with American food is not the cooking or the restaurants - the chains and the recipes - it’s the corruption of the basic ingredients. Fructose and hormones. Shit at the source
There is also the corporate push for deskilled kitchens. It far cheaper to create recipes that require little to no equipment beyond a microwave or ones of those special ovens that cooks /steams in rapid time, and in doing so doesn't require actual trained chefs. A good example, Krispy Kreme started with their USP that their doughnuts were made in shop, fresh from scratch every day. Now everything is made in a factory and all they do is heat up the doughnuts and mix water with pre-packaged dry frosting and slop that ontop.
Its like the school dinners here, but in the US you are now paying $20-30-40 (+20% tip) for it.
As a well travelled for flint knappers weekly, are you seriously saying you have never seen or been to a cheesecake factory in the US? You can't miss the gaudy buildings that are housed in. They are everywhere in the US.
Think Trump Tower....but you go to get a slightly better meal than most US chains and a huge piece of cheesecake. Thus, its the go to location for people for birthdays etc.
I have honestly missed it. And I travel in America a lot
These words must have different connotations in the USA. Honestly America is sometimes so foreign
Last time I was there I did note there was some new (to me) nationwide chain which actually did decent and not disgustingly large oversweet sandwiches. A bit like an American Pret. I forget the name but it was ok!
I’m back in September and I will try and seek out…. The cheesecake factory
As somebody who is well travelled and versed in high quality food, I am not sure you will enjoy the experience !!!
The whole idea of a chain restaurant is anathema to Europeans. But it’s not logical. It makes total sense in terms of capitalism - if you can produce ten great dishes reliably in an enjoyable environment why not franchise out that mix to multiple locations? It’s weird that some places in the uk are chains but somehow get away with it and are deemed acceptable by the bourgeois - pizza express, Pret A Manger. Maybe Nando’s at a pinch?
Americans are also risk averse when it comes to cuisine. So a chain tells you that you can predict what you’re going to get, which is nice for many people
Btw the food in Ukraine has been really good so far. Same in Moldova. Think they are so poor they have to use fresh local ingredients. Not much processed stuff. It shows
Wagamama, Pho, maybe Turtle Bay are chain restaurants that are actually edible, and appear to have actual whole foods in them. I can't ever imagine eating the shite in the Cheesecake Factory.
Indeed I’ll develop that argument. One of the great problems with American food is not the cooking or the restaurants - the chains and the recipes - it’s the corruption of the basic ingredients. Fructose and hormones. Shit at the source
Wetherspoons is cheap but you get the impression the ingredients are fairly good quality.
It actually really smart from Trump, The Cheesecake Factory is incredibly popular restaurant chain. Its aspirational / special occasion place that middle classes in America love to go to eat. Europeans might look at it as rather tacky wannabe proper restaurant, but in US it is much loved.
I hated the Cheesecake Factory, so yeah Trump is probably catnip to Cheesecake Factory diners.
The only thing I know about the Cheesecake Factory is its where Penny (and for a while Bernadette) worked in the early seasons of The Big Bang Theory.
It's a similar fayre to the old shite you used to get at Frankie and Bennies, but with cheesecake themed deserts. It's a bit like Peter Kaye with garlic bread "garlic and bread? dirty b@5tards!" Cheese and cake? Dirty bas****!
Actually that's not true. Frankie and Bennies is loads of frozen / reheated / pre-prepared food. One of the USPs for Cheesecake Factory is every is made on site and to order. Its certainly not of the standard that mid-level restaurants in the UK could get away with, but the US it fits a niche between fast food / fast casual (that people every day) and the "real" restaurants that are either out of a lot of people price range or simply don't exist in many towns in the US.
I speak from experience. To my mind it was not "mom and pop" fayre, it was still very much from "the man".
Oh god, in terms of actual quality, it absolutely is, its fake "posh" food but it isn't frozen / microwave blast cuisine. That is places like Olive Garden or Applebee's. Frankie and Bernie = Applebee's in the US.
But remember even in the UK these days we have a much higher quality when you start to spend £30 a dish.
I'm currently in Gozo. Dined at a Michelin starred place in the harbour area called T'mun last night, E25 for a main and it was sublime. Way ahead of anything you'd get for £25 in the UK or 50 bucks from a chain in the US.
Of course there are many places you can eat in Europe, particularly places like Spain and Italy, better for less. But the UK is much better across the board than it was in the 80s and 90s. I am not sure that's true in the US, fast food is now really terrible (not only terrible for you, but looks and taste foul, and relatively very expensive), and mid isn't much better.
We talked the other day on here why small towns in France can still have high streets that work, where as the UK, its only coffee shops, bars and chain restaurants these days. Wages, rents, rates, etc.
In the US Katz Diner type independent places are great. I went to a fantastic one In Reading Market in Philadelphia a few years ago. Those are the places to eat reasonably. Other than the queue Katz Diner is great too.
Back in Blighty pub food remains extraordinarily poor yet expensive.
Whenever I look at BF prices for Trump as against the polls I have to remind myself that, in 2020, people were still betting on Trump after he had actually lost the EC vote. People who were at least there in spirit on 6 Jan were have always been active in that market, making it a less than rational one.
It is horrifying that Braverman uses the phrase "unite the right" - she knows exactly what she is doing
"The Unite the Right rally was a white supremacist[4][5][6][7] rally that took place in Charlottesville, Virginia, from August 11 to 12, 2017.[8][9][10] Marchers included members of the alt-right,[11] neo-Confederates,[12] neo-fascists,[13] white nationalists,[14] neo-Nazis,[15] Klansmen,[16] and far-right militias.[17] Some groups chanted racist and antisemitic slogans and carried weapons, Nazi and neo-Nazi symbols, the Valknut, Confederate battle flags, Deus vult crosses, flags, and other symbols of various past and present antisemitic and anti-Islamic groups.[23] The organizers' stated goals included the unification of the American white nationalist movement[11] and opposing the proposed removal of the statue of General Robert E. Lee from Charlottesville's former Lee Park."
It actually really smart from Trump, The Cheesecake Factory is incredibly popular restaurant chain. Its aspirational / special occasion place that middle classes in America love to go to eat. Europeans might look at it as rather tacky wannabe proper restaurant, but in US it is much loved.
I hated the Cheesecake Factory, so yeah Trump is probably catnip to Cheesecake Factory diners.
The only thing I know about the Cheesecake Factory is its where Penny (and for a while Bernadette) worked in the early seasons of The Big Bang Theory.
It's a similar fayre to the old shite you used to get at Frankie and Bennies, but with cheesecake themed deserts. It's a bit like Peter Kaye with garlic bread "garlic and bread? dirty b@5tards!" Cheese and cake? Dirty bas****!
Actually that's not true. Frankie and Bennies is loads of frozen / reheated / pre-prepared food. One of the USPs for Cheesecake Factory is every is made on site and to order. Its certainly not of the standard that mid-level restaurants in the UK could get away with, but the US it fits a niche between fast food / fast casual (that people every day) and the "real" restaurants that are either out of a lot of people price range or simply don't exist in many towns in the US.
I speak from experience. To my mind it was not "mom and pop" fayre, it was still very much from "the man".
Oh god, in terms of actual quality, it absolutely is, its fake "posh" food but it isn't frozen / microwave blast cuisine. That is places like Olive Garden or Applebee's. Frankie and Bernie = Applebee's in the US.
But remember even in the UK these days we have a much higher quality when you start to spend £30 a dish.
I'm currently in Gozo. Dined at a Michelin starred place in the harbour area called T'mun last night, E25 for a main and it was sublime. Way ahead of anything you'd get for £25 in the UK or 50 bucks from a chain in the US.
Of course there are many places you can eat in Europe, particularly places like Spain and Italy, better for less. But the UK is much better across the board than it was in the 80s and 90s. I am not sure that's true in the US, fast food is now really terrible (not only terrible for you, but looks and taste foul, and relatively very expensive), and mid isn't much better.
We talked the other day on here why small towns in France can still have high streets that work, where as the UK, its only coffee shops, bars and chain restaurants these days. Wages, rents, rates, etc.
In the US Katz Diner type independent places are great. I went to a fantastic one In Reading Market in Philadelphia a few years ago. Those are the places to eat reasonably. Other than the queue Katz Diner is great too.
Back in Blighty pub food remains extraordinarily poor yet expensive.
As a well travelled for flint knappers weekly, are you seriously saying you have never seen or been to a cheesecake factory in the US? You can't miss the gaudy buildings that are housed in. They are everywhere in the US.
Think Trump Tower....but you go to get a slightly better meal than most US chains and a huge piece of cheesecake. Thus, its the go to location for people for birthdays etc.
I have honestly missed it. And I travel in America a lot
These words must have different connotations in the USA. Honestly America is sometimes so foreign
Last time I was there I did note there was some new (to me) nationwide chain which actually did decent and not disgustingly large oversweet sandwiches. A bit like an American Pret. I forget the name but it was ok!
I’m back in September and I will try and seek out…. The cheesecake factory
As somebody who is well travelled and versed in high quality food, I am not sure you will enjoy the experience !!!
Panera?
Yes! Well spotted. Panera
Genuinely ok sarnies
My wife is american... we go stateside regularly....
The Martin Bell scenario was unique, and all the other parties stood aside for him. I agree that remain may have an attritional effect, but my question is perhaps better phrased as: if the Tories aren't winning Tatton, what are they actually for?
Rural and market town and commuter belt Leave seats
That's a sad decline from 'Natural Party of Government'.
Interesting odds appearing now on Bet365 I'd recommend (as value) 12/1 on Jody McIntyre for WPB in Birmingham Yardley. They are pushing this one hard, its Labour's weakest held seat in Brum and although Jess P has a profile this might be closer than imagined given Labour's chaos in Birmingham. Value in the odds not a prediction........
This will surely be a sub-50-seat scenario if Tatton goes. It is one of the most Conservative places I can imagine.
Is Esther McVey just a bad campaigner? Going through her record, she performed slightly better than the national swing in Wirral West 2005, but underachieved the national swing in Wirral West 2010 and 2015 and Tatton in 2017 and 2019.
Wirral West 2005 - local swing 3.7% Lab to Con, national swing 3.1% Lab to Con Wirral West 2010 - local swing 4.4% Lab to Con, national swing 5.0% Lab to Con Wirral West 2015 - local swing 3.6% Con to Lab, national swing 0.5% Con to Lab Tatton 2017 - local swing 5.1% Con to Lab, national swing 2.0% Con to Lab Tatton 2019 - local swing 2.7% Lab to Con, national swing 4.5% Lab to Con
Fair enough, in 2017 McVey was losing any Osborne personal vote but in 2015 and 2019 she should have benefited from the usual boost that any sitting MP gets and she didn't seem to get that, in fact she seems to get an incumbency penalty.
Remainer seat effect, maybe?
I don't think Tatton was Remain?
In Esther's defence, national swing is the wrong comparator. I think Merseyside has been swinging relatively to Lab for some time. It would be relevant to compare Wirral West to Wirral South, and perhaps to Wallasey and Crosby and its successors; and Tatton to Macclesfield.
Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko A Reform UK candidate claimed the country would be "far better" if it had "taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality" instead of fighting the Nazis in World War Two. Ian Gribbin, the party's candidate in Bexhill and Battle, also wrote online that women were the "sponging gender" and should be "deprived of health care". In posts from 2022 on the Unherd magazine website, seen by the BBC, he said Winston Churchill was "abysmal" and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin...
He'll be suspended by Farage pretty soon.
All the rest of it, and the dogwhistling, suggests he is a Nazi sympathetiser; however, being neutral/making peace with Hitler was an establishment view in 1940 - as exemplified by Lord Halifax.
Easy to be wise after the event, as we know how it all turned out, but plenty thought Churchill a dangerous and deranged warmonger.
Whenever I look at BF prices for Trump as against the polls I have to remind myself that, in 2020, people were still betting on Trump after he had actually lost the EC vote. People who were at least there in spirit on 6 Jan were have always been active in that market, making it a less than rational one.
Also out of kilter with other markets such as percentage vote. There were some superb arbs last time out
It actually really smart from Trump, The Cheesecake Factory is incredibly popular restaurant chain. Its aspirational / special occasion place that middle classes in America love to go to eat. Europeans might look at it as rather tacky wannabe proper restaurant, but in US it is much loved.
I hated the Cheesecake Factory, so yeah Trump is probably catnip to Cheesecake Factory diners.
The only thing I know about the Cheesecake Factory is its where Penny (and for a while Bernadette) worked in the early seasons of The Big Bang Theory.
It's a similar fayre to the old shite you used to get at Frankie and Bennies, but with cheesecake themed deserts. It's a bit like Peter Kaye with garlic bread "garlic and bread? dirty b@5tards!" Cheese and cake? Dirty bas****!
Actually that's not true. Frankie and Bennies is loads of frozen / reheated / pre-prepared food. One of the USPs for Cheesecake Factory is every is made on site and to order. Its certainly not of the standard that mid-level restaurants in the UK could get away with, but the US it fits a niche between fast food / fast casual (that people every day) and the "real" restaurants that are either out of a lot of people price range or simply don't exist in many towns in the US.
I speak from experience. To my mind it was not "mom and pop" fayre, it was still very much from "the man".
Oh god, in terms of actual quality, it absolutely is, its fake "posh" food but it isn't frozen / microwave blast cuisine. That is places like Olive Garden or Applebee's. Frankie and Bernie = Applebee's in the US.
But remember even in the UK these days we have a much higher quality when you start to spend £30 a dish.
I'm currently in Gozo. Dined at a Michelin starred place in the harbour area called T'mun last night, E25 for a main and it was sublime. Way ahead of anything you'd get for £25 in the UK or 50 bucks from a chain in the US.
Of course there are many places you can eat in Europe, particularly places like Spain and Italy, better for less. But the UK is much better across the board than it was in the 80s and 90s. I am not sure that's true in the US, fast food is now really terrible (not only terrible for you, but looks and taste foul, and relatively very expensive), and mid isn't much better.
We talked the other day on here why small towns in France can still have high streets that work, where as the UK, its only coffee shops, bars and chain restaurants these days. Wages, rents, rates, etc.
In the US Katz Diner type independent places are great. I went to a fantastic one In Reading Market in Philadelphia a few years ago. Those are the places to eat reasonably. Other than the queue Katz Diner is great too.
Back in Blighty pub food remains extraordinarily poor yet expensive.
Maybe you need to eat at different pubs ;-)
Perhaps it's unique to Wales. I can't think of any that I have been to since COVID that aren't vile.
Henry Hill posted an article on ConservativeHome that struck me as thoughtful. I want to see a Tory party with ideas that could make this country more competitive, I just think that it'll take more than one election defeat to get the message through to them.
Reform UK enjoys the normal advantage of a minor party in that it doesn’t have to produce anything resembling a workable programme for government; it’s diagnoses do not need to engage properly with either trade-offs or the practicalities of implementation. At present, any merger would be little more than a union with the Tories’ renegade id.
It might be more comfortable for MPs to focus on the need to win votes to their right, but the cold truth is that the overwhelming majority of losses next month will be to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The path back to office, however long and winding, runs through those voters.
That does not mean, as some commentators claim, that the Conservatives must do nothing but tack back towards the imagined ‘centre’, which is normally a label adopted by people who hold a clutch of minority positions which they imagine to be in the middle of their own Overton Window. As I recently wrote elsewhere:
“…the politics of being sensible can too easily stray into the politics of the easy short-term decision, even as the long-term costs (political and real) become increasingly unsustainable.”
There is plenty of scope – indeed, need – for radical challenges to the oh-so-sensible status quo. Mass immigration exacerbates the housing crisis and props up a low-productivity economy without raising living standards; large parts of the higher education sector freight taxpayers and young workers with debt merely to despatch workers into jobs school-leavers did a generation before; the forward projections of our biggest public spending commitments are unsustainable.
On those areas and others, such as tax and family policy, there is plenty of room for new answers. Finding those answers – and understanding why it has so totally failed to meet these challenges in office – must be the mission of the Conservative Party in Opposition.
Indeed I’ll develop that argument. One of the great problems with American food is not the cooking or the restaurants - the chains and the recipes - it’s the corruption of the basic ingredients. Fructose and hormones. Shit at the source
There is also the corporate push for deskilled kitchens. It far cheaper to create recipes that require little to no equipment beyond a microwave or ones of those special ovens that cooks /steams in rapid time, and in doing so doesn't require actual trained chefs. Its like the school dinners here, but in the US you are now paying $20-30-40 (+20% tip) for it.
Whenever I look at BF prices for Trump as against the polls I have to remind myself that, in 2020, people were still betting on Trump after he had actually lost the EC vote. People who were at least there in spirit on 6 Jan were have always been active in that market, making it a less than rational one.
Also out of kilter with other markets such as percentage vote. There were some superb arbs last time out
Would hope some PBers could share similar this time round on election night!
Tatton, Altrincham and Sale W and Macclesfield are neighbouring seats anyone of sane mind would for years have considered safe Tory seats for all time but demographic change and the surge in very affluent remainerish Manchester based professionals taking firmly against the Tories in the past few years and notably post Partygate and the Truss disaster, in my view makes fertile ground for Labour, alongside the likes of Cheadle and Hazel Grove which are also in the same environs and will without a shadow of doubt go Lib Dem for same reasons.
As a Manchester professional and north Manchester resident i talk about the 'Chorltonifcation' of the Greater Manchester hinterland as a vast swathe from Ramsbottom in the north to Knutsford in the south comes to resemble hipsterish Chorlton cum Hardy in south Manchester. Its all becoming quite uniform now with hipster beards and artisan bakeries everywhere you turn... which isn't good for Tories even before the present catastrophes began to unfold.
Isn't voting a bit, you know, unhipsterish?
I have a thesis that only around 60 or 70 actual hipsters have ever existed at any given time. It's a journalistic shorthand rather than an actual type of person.
Indeed I’ll develop that argument. One of the great problems with American food is not the cooking or the restaurants - the chains and the recipes - it’s the corruption of the basic ingredients. Fructose and hormones. Shit at the source
There is also the corporate push for deskilled kitchens. It far cheaper to create recipes that require little to no equipment beyond a microwave or ones of those special ovens that cooks /steams in rapid time, and in doing so doesn't require actual trained chefs. Its like the school dinners here, but in the US you are now paying $20-30-40 (+20% tip) for it.
The funniest (if you want to call it that) I have seen is demand for a tip at a self service check-out.
When minimum wage in the US was exceptionally low it made some sense, but in some states the minimum wage is as high as $20/hr, then to ask for 20% minimum tip on top is absolute piss take.
It has creeped into London as well. The automatic service charge of 15%, including some establishments who try to frame it as compulsory fee.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The bigger issue is the quality of candidate selection.
Henry Hill posted an article on ConservativeHome that struck me as thoughtful. I want to see a Tory party with ideas that could make this country more competitive, I just think that it'll take more than one election defeat to get the message through to them.
Reform UK enjoys the normal advantage of a minor party in that it doesn’t have to produce anything resembling a workable programme for government; it’s diagnoses do not need to engage properly with either trade-offs or the practicalities of implementation. At present, any merger would be little more than a union with the Tories’ renegade id.
It might be more comfortable for MPs to focus on the need to win votes to their right, but the cold truth is that the overwhelming majority of losses next month will be to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The path back to office, however long and winding, runs through those voters.
That does not mean, as some commentators claim, that the Conservatives must do nothing but tack back towards the imagined ‘centre’, which is normally a label adopted by people who hold a clutch of minority positions which they imagine to be in the middle of their own Overton Window. As I recently wrote elsewhere:
“…the politics of being sensible can too easily stray into the politics of the easy short-term decision, even as the long-term costs (political and real) become increasingly unsustainable.”
There is plenty of scope – indeed, need – for radical challenges to the oh-so-sensible status quo. Mass immigration exacerbates the housing crisis and props up a low-productivity economy without raising living standards; large parts of the higher education sector freight taxpayers and young workers with debt merely to despatch workers into jobs school-leavers did a generation before; the forward projections of our biggest public spending commitments are unsustainable.
On those areas and others, such as tax and family policy, there is plenty of room for new answers. Finding those answers – and understanding why it has so totally failed to meet these challenges in office – must be the mission of the Conservative Party in Opposition.
"As far back as I remember I always wanted to be a Tory."
Tatton, Altrincham and Sale W and Macclesfield are neighbouring seats anyone of sane mind would for years have considered safe Tory seats for all time but demographic change and the surge in very affluent remainerish Manchester based professionals taking firmly against the Tories in the past few years and notably post Partygate and the Truss disaster, in my view makes fertile ground for Labour, alongside the likes of Cheadle and Hazel Grove which are also in the same environs and will without a shadow of doubt go Lib Dem for same reasons.
As a Manchester professional and north Manchester resident i talk about the 'Chorltonifcation' of the Greater Manchester hinterland as a vast swathe from Ramsbottom in the north to Knutsford in the south comes to resemble hipsterish Chorlton cum Hardy in south Manchester. Its all becoming quite uniform now with hipster beards and artisan bakeries everywhere you turn... which isn't good for Tories even before the present catastrophes began to unfold.
The same effect in and around Romford. (Also, notable that Hornchurch is distinctly upmarket from Romford). And that's before the Elizabeth Line opened. Might not kill Rosser's chances this time round, but I'm dubious that his successor will be able to win on the same pitch that has served him so well for so long.
No actual hipsters yet, though I did recently see someone cycling while wearing a bowler hat. I don't think he was doing it ironically, either.
Indeed I’ll develop that argument. One of the great problems with American food is not the cooking or the restaurants - the chains and the recipes - it’s the corruption of the basic ingredients. Fructose and hormones. Shit at the source
There is also the corporate push for deskilled kitchens. It far cheaper to create recipes that require little to no equipment beyond a microwave or ones of those special ovens that cooks /steams in rapid time, and in doing so doesn't require actual trained chefs. Its like the school dinners here, but in the US you are now paying $20-30-40 (+20% tip) for it.
The funniest (if you want to call it that) I have seen is demand for a tip at a self service check-out.
My lad upset his American girlfriend when he refused to tip at the counter when he picked up a takeaway pizza in Ohio. She was mortified and went back in to tip the member of staff who handed him the pizza box.
Interesting odds appearing now on Bet365 I'd recommend (as value) 12/1 on Jody McIntyre for WPB in Birmingham Yardley. They are pushing this one hard, its Labour's weakest held seat in Brum and although Jess P has a profile this might be closer than imagined given Labour's chaos in Birmingham. Value in the odds not a prediction........
Word on the street has been Jess is toast since the Mayoralty when this guy did well.
The most gratifying Portillo moments for the PB Tories will be Phillips, Streeting and Debonnaire.
On the other hand Hunt, Penny and JRM all survive even if it is a bad night for the Tories.
It actually really smart from Trump, The Cheesecake Factory is incredibly popular restaurant chain. Its aspirational / special occasion place that middle classes in America love to go to eat. Europeans might look at it as rather tacky wannabe proper restaurant, but in US it is much loved.
Never heard of it.
The character of Penny in The Big Bang Theory works at The Cheesecake Factory as a waitress. This is perhaps how it is best known to people in the UK.
Sam Freedman @Samfrspare JLP show same movement to Reform as others. This is the first fully post D-Day poll and doesn't show too big a drop for the Tories (though is the methodology that helps them most and they're on 24%).
----------
The headline figures might look disappointing for Reform - but I think we are going to see crossover today/tomorrow from a polling company that has more favourable methodology to them / less favourable methodology to the Tories.
DYOR but I would lump on those trading bets right now if you can. Lib Dems over 40.5 seats still looks very good to me.
I've been going on about betting on Labour getting just below 40%, and since then a lot of the polls have made that seem a distinct possibility.
My perception (which may be very wrong) is that regardless of the Tory numbers, Labour have slipped a little to just over 40%, and this may well be on the way to a 38-39% final share, With the Tories likely no higher than the mid 20's it will be enough for a whopping majority, but as ever with FPTP, does 41% explicit consent for a government really justify a huge majority? (Anymore than 2019, or 1997, 2001 etc)?
Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko A Reform UK candidate claimed the country would be "far better" if it had "taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality" instead of fighting the Nazis in World War Two. Ian Gribbin, the party's candidate in Bexhill and Battle, also wrote online that women were the "sponging gender" and should be "deprived of health care". In posts from 2022 on the Unherd magazine website, seen by the BBC, he said Winston Churchill was "abysmal" and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin...
He'll be suspended by Farage pretty soon.
All the rest of it, and the dogwhistling, suggests he is a Nazi sympathetiser; however, being neutral/making peace with Hitler was an establishment view in 1940 - as exemplified by Lord Halifax.
Easy to be wise after the event, as we know how it all turned out, but plenty thought Churchill a dangerous and deranged warmonger.
Halifax hated Hitler and all his works - his private diaries and letters make that clear.
He thought fighting against a united Europe would end up with a WWI style slaughter, plus not achieve much. Except possibly get the U.K. invaded.
What he was thinking of seems to have been a heavily armed neutrality. Not a trusting or cordial peace.
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 60 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 80 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 130 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 220 5. Reform lose their deposit? 380 6. Labour lose their deposit? 14
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,000 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 19,500
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 22 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 190 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 2
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 16 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 70 14. Seats will Labour win? 488 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 46 16. Seats will the SNP win? 16 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 6 18. Seats will DUP win? 4 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 60
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 27% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 27% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42% 25. Will Speaker get? 75%
Thanks! (N.B. Do you need to clarify in advance whether Rotherham counts in Q1 - do Reform count as beating the Cons here with Cons not standing? Doesn't change my guess but might need to pre-empt a small argument!)
Interesting odds appearing now on Bet365 I'd recommend (as value) 12/1 on Jody McIntyre for WPB in Birmingham Yardley. They are pushing this one hard, its Labour's weakest held seat in Brum and although Jess P has a profile this might be closer than imagined given Labour's chaos in Birmingham. Value in the odds not a prediction........
Word on the street has been Jess is toast since the Mayoralty when this guy did well.
The most gratifying Portillo moments for the PB Tories will be Phillips, Streeting and Debonnaire.
On the other hand Hunt, Penny and JRM all survive even if it is a bad night for the Tories.
If JRM survives it will be an extremely bad night for the Tories.
3. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 150
5. Conservatives lose their deposit? 100
7. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 100
9. Reform lose their deposit? 400
11. Labour lose their deposit? 20
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 40,000
10. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 24,000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 42
11. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 250
13. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 50
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13 - assumed coop=labour
14. Seats will the Conservatives win? 180
16. Seats will Labour win? 390
18. Seats will Lib Dems win? 50
20. Seats will the SNP win? 20
22. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
24. Seats will DUP win? 6
26. Seats will Reform come second in? 15
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 30%
22. Will Reform get across the UK? 8%
25. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32%
27. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28%
29. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 30%
It actually really smart from Trump, The Cheesecake Factory is incredibly popular restaurant chain. Its aspirational / special occasion place that middle classes in America love to go to eat. Europeans might look at it as rather tacky wannabe proper restaurant, but in US it is much loved.
I hated the Cheesecake Factory, so yeah Trump is probably catnip to Cheesecake Factory diners.
The only thing I know about the Cheesecake Factory is its where Penny (and for a while Bernadette) worked in the early seasons of The Big Bang Theory.
It's a similar fayre to the old shite you used to get at Frankie and Bennies, but with cheesecake themed deserts. It's a bit like Peter Kaye with garlic bread "garlic and bread? dirty b@5tards!" Cheese and cake? Dirty bas****!
When I went to the one in Chicago. The Hancock Building I think. They served large whole chickens. Just huge amounts. Much like everywhere in Chicago.
Ok, I've compiled 25 questions for the General Election Competition. Thanks to everyone who's made suggestions. A reminder that I've dropped all non-numerical questions, so if someone wants to run something parallel asking questions like "in which seat will..." then be my guest.
Also, I've devised a fiendish scoring system to make sure all questions count equally. That is, on difficult questions like "how many seats will Labour win?" just as many points will be given out as easier questions like "how many seats will the DUP get?" Obviously it's easier to hit the exact right number with the DUP one than the Labour one, but my scoring system flattens that out.
In essence the most important thing is that you give better answers than other people. Being 1 off the Labour seats will probably earn you big points, but being 1 off with DUP seats might well get you nothing at all.
More details on the scoring will follow later, but for now... the questions!
General Election Competition - Scoring
First up, DON'T WORRY ABOUT ALL THIS. You don't need to understand it to enter, this is just for transparency so you know you're all being treated fairly. It's complicated, but the idea is to even out the scoring so it's not all weighted towards getting the easy questions right. In short, guess better than the other players! If you miss but you're nearer than everyone else, you'll be fully rewarded.
There will be 100 points awarded for each question. Each player can earn up to 20 points per question. When the result of a question is known, all answers are grouped into tiers. The closest to the correct answer is Tier 1. All players who are equally close are placed into that Tier. The next nearest answers are grouped into Tier 2, and so on. Tier 1 players receive an equal share of the 100 points not exceeding 20 points each. If there are any remaining points to be awarded, they are shared among Tier 2 players and will not exceed 15 points each. This carries on until all 100 points are allocated. The maximum points available to a player at each tier are 20, 15, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, and all subsequent tiers are 5.
Example 1 The players provide the following answers Player A: 112 Player B: 110 Player C: 113 Player D : 109 Player E: 113 Player F: 71 Player G: 188 Player H: 188 Player I: 201 The result is 111. Players A and B are the closest, and receive 20 points each, leaving 60 points. Players C, D, and E are in Tier 2 and receive 15 points each, leaving 15 points. Player F is in Tier 3 and receives 10 points, leaving 5 points. Players G and H are in Tier 4 and cannot receive their full 9 points because there's only 5 points remaining. They get 2.5 points each leaving 0 points. Player I is in Tier 5 and since there are no points left available receives 0 points.
Example 2 The players provide the following answers Player A: 4 Player B: 5 Player C: 4 Player D : 3 Player E: 4 Player F: 4 Player G: 5 Player H: 4 Player I: 4 The result is 4. Players A, C, E, F, H, and I are closest. They can't get the full 20 points because that would mean more than 100 points are given out. They each get 16.67 points. There are no points left. Players B, D, and G get nothing because there's no points left to give out, even though they were all very close to the right answer.
Ok, I've compiled 25 questions for the General Election Competition. Thanks to everyone who's made suggestions. A reminder that I've dropped all non-numerical questions, so if someone wants to run something parallel asking questions like "in which seat will..." then be my guest.
Also, I've devised a fiendish scoring system to make sure all questions count equally. That is, on difficult questions like "how many seats will Labour win?" just as many points will be given out as easier questions like "how many seats will the DUP get?" Obviously it's easier to hit the exact right number with the DUP one than the Labour one, but my scoring system flattens that out.
In essence the most important thing is that you give better answers than other people. Being 1 off the Labour seats will probably earn you big points, but being 1 off with DUP seats might well get you nothing at all.
More details on the scoring will follow later, but for now... the questions!
General Election Competition - Scoring
First up, DON'T WORRY ABOUT ALL THIS. You don't need to understand it to enter, this is just for transparency so you know you're all being treated fairly. It's complicated, but the idea is to even out the scoring so it's not all weighted towards getting the easy questions right. In short, guess better than the other players! If you miss but you're nearer than everyone else, you'll be fully rewarded.
There will be 100 points awarded for each question. Each player can earn up to 20 points per question. When the result of a question is known, all answers are grouped into tiers. The closest to the correct answer is Tier 1. All players who are equally close are placed into that Tier. The next nearest answers are grouped into Tier 2, and so on. Tier 1 players receive an equal share of the 100 points not exceeding 20 points each. If there are any remaining points to be awarded, they are shared among Tier 2 players and will not exceed 15 points each. This carries on until all 100 points are allocated. The maximum points available to a player at each tier are 20, 15, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, and all subsequent tiers are 5.
Example 1 The players provide the following answers Player A: 112 Player B: 110 Player C: 113 Player D : 109 Player E: 113 Player F: 71 Player G: 188 Player H: 188 Player I: 201 The result is 111. Players A and B are the closest, and receive 20 points each, leaving 60 points. Players C, D, and E are in Tier 2 and receive 15 points each, leaving 15 points. Player F is in Tier 3 and receives 10 points, leaving 5 points. Players G and H are in Tier 4 and cannot receive their full 9 points because there's only 5 points remaining. They get 2.5 points each leaving 0 points. Player I is in Tier 5 and since there are no points left available receives 0 points.
Example 2 The players provide the following answers Player A: 4 Player B: 5 Player C: 4 Player D : 3 Player E: 4 Player F: 4 Player G: 5 Player H: 4 Player I: 4 The result is 4. Players A, C, E, F, H, and I are closest. They can't get the full 20 points because that would mean more than 100 points are given out. They each get 16.67 points. There are no points left. Players B, D, and G get nothing because there's no points left to give out, even though they were all very close to the right answer.
Cannot snip .. on phone.
Complex .. RU the ghost og Gordon Brown? :-)
I hadn't heard he was dead! Otherwise... maybe. Maybe the child of Brown and Sunak?
Ok, I've compiled 25 questions for the General Election Competition. Thanks to everyone who's made suggestions. A reminder that I've dropped all non-numerical questions, so if someone wants to run something parallel asking questions like "in which seat will..." then be my guest.
Also, I've devised a fiendish scoring system to make sure all questions count equally. That is, on difficult questions like "how many seats will Labour win?" just as many points will be given out as easier questions like "how many seats will the DUP get?" Obviously it's easier to hit the exact right number with the DUP one than the Labour one, but my scoring system flattens that out.
In essence the most important thing is that you give better answers than other people. Being 1 off the Labour seats will probably earn you big points, but being 1 off with DUP seats might well get you nothing at all.
More details on the scoring will follow later, but for now... the questions!
General Election Competition
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 5. Reform lose their deposit? 6. Labour lose their deposit?
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)?
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate?
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 14. Seats will Labour win? 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 16. Seats will the SNP win? 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 18. Seats will DUP win? 19. Seats will Reform come second in?
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 25. Will Speaker get?
Rules: "Independent" means the candidate has no party affiliation or where the party is standing in a single seat. Candidates nominated for a party who are suspended by their party after nominations close still count for the party. "Green" treats the Green Parties in England & Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland as a single party. All entries must be made before midday on polling day, 4th July
Please tag @Farooq in your answers so I'm less likely to miss them.
@Farooq for some of these (like margin) you need to specify units
Where it says "vote margin", this means votes. So far the answers I've received have been answering as I intended. If you have a query about a specific question, let me know
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 60 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 80 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 130 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 220 5. Reform lose their deposit? 380 6. Labour lose their deposit? 14
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,000 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 19,500
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 22 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 190 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 2
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 16 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 70 14. Seats will Labour win? 488 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 46 16. Seats will the SNP win? 16 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 6 18. Seats will DUP win? 4 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 60
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 27% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 27% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42% 25. Will Speaker get? 75%
Thanks! (N.B. Do you need to clarify in advance whether Rotherham counts in Q1 - do Reform count as beating the Cons here with Cons not standing? Doesn't change my guess but might need to pre-empt a small argument!)
Clarification requested: if Con don't stand and Ref get at least 1 vote, Ref beats Con.
3. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 150
5. Conservatives lose their deposit? 100
7. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 100
9. Reform lose their deposit? 400
11. Labour lose their deposit? 20
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 40,000
10. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 24,000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 42
11. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 250
13. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 50
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13 - assumed coop=labour
14. Seats will the Conservatives win? 180
16. Seats will Labour win? 390
18. Seats will Lib Dems win? 50
20. Seats will the SNP win? 20
22. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
24. Seats will DUP win? 6
26. Seats will Reform come second in? 15
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 30%
22. Will Reform get across the UK? 8%
25. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32%
27. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28%
29. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 30%
31. Will Speaker get? 67%
Labour == Co-op, thanks for pointing that one out.
“We have 5 children while you have 1 or 2. In 10 years, there will be more Pakis(Muslims) than Danes here. There are only 5 million Danes. You will soon be exterminated””
“We have 5 children while you have 1 or 2. In 10 years, there will be more Pakis(Muslims) than Danes here. There are only 5 million Danes. You will soon be exterminated””
3. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 150
5. Conservatives lose their deposit? 100
7. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 100
9. Reform lose their deposit? 400
11. Labour lose their deposit? 20
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 40,000
10. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 24,000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 42
11. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 250
13. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 50
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13 - assumed coop=labour
14. Seats will the Conservatives win? 180
16. Seats will Labour win? 390
18. Seats will Lib Dems win? 50
20. Seats will the SNP win? 20
22. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
24. Seats will DUP win? 6
26. Seats will Reform come second in? 15
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 30%
22. Will Reform get across the UK? 8%
25. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32%
27. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28%
29. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 30%
31. Will Speaker get? 67%
Labour == Co-op, thanks for pointing that one out.
It's almost like somebody wrote an article that specifically mentioned the Cooperative Party!
“We have 5 children while you have 1 or 2. In 10 years, there will be more Pakis(Muslims) than Danes here. There are only 5 million Danes. You will soon be exterminated””
I have finally encountered the war in Kyiv. Tank traps, armoured cars, aggressive soldiers, razor wire. Think this is Parliament/zelenskys home
Isn't this the point where the brainwashed switch in your head gets flipped and you run towards the home with glowing red eyes and a specially sharpened flint dildo screaming "Victory for Putin, the Thousand-Year Tsar!"
“We have 5 children while you have 1 or 2. In 10 years, there will be more Pakis(Muslims) than Danes here. There are only 5 million Danes. You will soon be exterminated””
The Martin Bell scenario was unique, and all the other parties stood aside for him. I agree that remain may have an attritional effect, but my question is perhaps better phrased as: if the Tories aren't winning Tatton, what are they actually for?
Yeah he benefitted from the 35% odd Lab/LD vote from 1992 not standing. Hamilton just about performed in line with the decline in safe seats in 97, he'd have possibly lost in a normal fight to Labour in a hyper marginal finish (extra 4% swing on top of UNS)
Bet365 has odds up for (I think) all UK constituencies; Tatton has Labour at 4/7, Tories at 5/4. I do wonder whether their odds in general are overstating the likelihood of Tory catastrophe.
What does an accumulator on the ten last Labour targets look like?
I mean, they do do accumulators don’t they? Related what you say?
I have finally encountered the war in Kyiv. Tank traps, armoured cars, aggressive soldiers, razor wire. Think this is Parliament/zelenskys home
Isn't this the point where the brainwashed switch in your head gets flipped and you run towards the home with glowing red eyes and a specially sharpened flint dildo screaming "Victory for Putin, the Thousand-Year Tsar!"
I guess this is how they defend zelensky. Layers and layers of tough armed security. It goes on and on. This entire quarter of the city is heavily fortified and impenetrable
@Farooq Here are the results from the Fairliered jury.
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 47 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 87 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 26 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 257 5. Reform lose their deposit? 373 6. Labour lose their deposit? 19
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 37,654 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 21,236
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 9 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 356 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 14
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 138 14. Seats will Labour win? 382 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 42 16. Seats will the SNP win? 20 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 47
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 24% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 11% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 31% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 34% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 40% 25. Will Speaker get? 83%
Comments
Genuinely ok sarnies
https://citygeographics.org/2022/12/15/tracking-gentrification-in-london-and-manchester-using-the-2021-census-occupational-class-data/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-biden-neck-and-neck-06-09-2024/
General Election Competition
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 152
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 110
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 0
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 2
5. Reform lose their deposit? 18
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 41,501
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 21,001
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 48
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 700
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 56
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? Grouping true indies as one... 12
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 143
14. Seats will Labour win? 415
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 41
16. Seats will the SNP win? 23
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 8
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 89
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 27%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 36%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 19%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 37%
25. Will Speaker get? 65%
Thanks @Farooq
Its like the school dinners here, but in the US you are now paying $20-30-40 (+20% tip) for it.
I can't ever imagine eating the shite in the Cheesecake Factory.
Back in Blighty pub food remains extraordinarily poor yet expensive.
"The Unite the Right rally was a white supremacist[4][5][6][7] rally that took place in Charlottesville, Virginia, from August 11 to 12, 2017.[8][9][10] Marchers included members of the alt-right,[11] neo-Confederates,[12] neo-fascists,[13] white nationalists,[14] neo-Nazis,[15] Klansmen,[16] and far-right militias.[17] Some groups chanted racist and antisemitic slogans and carried weapons, Nazi and neo-Nazi symbols, the Valknut, Confederate battle flags, Deus vult crosses, flags, and other symbols of various past and present antisemitic and anti-Islamic groups.[23] The organizers' stated goals included the unification of the American white nationalist movement[11] and opposing the proposed removal of the statue of General Robert E. Lee from Charlottesville's former Lee Park."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Right_rally
I'd recommend (as value) 12/1 on Jody McIntyre for WPB in Birmingham Yardley. They are pushing this one hard, its Labour's weakest held seat in Brum and although Jess P has a profile this might be closer than imagined given Labour's chaos in Birmingham.
Value in the odds not a prediction........
Easy to be wise after the event, as we know how it all turned out, but plenty thought Churchill a dangerous and deranged warmonger.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/10/it-is-no-good-trying-to-unite-the-right-until-we-have-answered-the-crucial-question-around-what/
It might be more comfortable for MPs to focus on the need to win votes to their right, but the cold truth is that the overwhelming majority of losses next month will be to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The path back to office, however long and winding, runs through those voters.
That does not mean, as some commentators claim, that the Conservatives must do nothing but tack back towards the imagined ‘centre’, which is normally a label adopted by people who hold a clutch of minority positions which they imagine to be in the middle of their own Overton Window. As I recently wrote elsewhere:
“…the politics of being sensible can too easily stray into the politics of the easy short-term decision, even as the long-term costs (political and real) become increasingly unsustainable.”
There is plenty of scope – indeed, need – for radical challenges to the oh-so-sensible status quo. Mass immigration exacerbates the housing crisis and props up a low-productivity economy without raising living standards; large parts of the higher education sector freight taxpayers and young workers with debt merely to despatch workers into jobs school-leavers did a generation before; the forward projections of our biggest public spending commitments are unsustainable.
On those areas and others, such as tax and family policy, there is plenty of room for new answers. Finding those answers – and understanding why it has so totally failed to meet these challenges in office – must be the mission of the Conservative Party in Opposition.
https://x.com/thespectator/status/1793582677196485030?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
When minimum wage in the US was exceptionally low it made some sense, but in some states the minimum wage is as high as $20/hr, then to ask for 20% minimum tip on top is absolute piss take.
It has creeped into London as well. The automatic service charge of 15%, including some establishments who try to frame it as compulsory fee.
NEW THREAD
That's the pool from which leaders are drawn.
No actual hipsters yet, though I did recently see someone cycling while wearing a bowler hat. I don't think he was doing it ironically, either.
The most gratifying Portillo moments for the PB Tories will be Phillips, Streeting and Debonnaire.
On the other hand Hunt, Penny and JRM all survive even if it is a bad night for the Tories.
He thought fighting against a united Europe would end up with a WWI style slaughter, plus not achieve much. Except possibly get the U.K. invaded.
What he was thinking of seems to have been a heavily armed neutrality. Not a trusting or cordial peace.
NEW:
@RestisPolitics
/ JLP poll, 7th-9th June
*Labour lead at 17 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 24% (-2)
REF: 15% (+3)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 5% (+2)
Tables: http://jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results
EDIT: apologies - I see that is has
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 60
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 80
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 130
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 220
5. Reform lose their deposit? 380
6. Labour lose their deposit? 14
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,000
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 19,500
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 22
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 190
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 2
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 16
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 70
14. Seats will Labour win? 488
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 46
16. Seats will the SNP win? 16
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 6
18. Seats will DUP win? 4
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 60
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 27%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 27%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42%
25. Will Speaker get? 75%
Thanks!
(N.B. Do you need to clarify in advance whether Rotherham counts in Q1 - do Reform count as beating the Cons here with Cons not standing? Doesn't change my guess but might need to pre-empt a small argument!)
@Farooq Thankw for doing this! Gulp. Here goes:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 50 seats.
3. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 150
5. Conservatives lose their deposit? 100
7. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 100
9. Reform lose their deposit? 400
11. Labour lose their deposit? 20
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 40,000
10. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 24,000
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 42
11. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 250
13. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 50
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13 - assumed coop=labour
14. Seats will the Conservatives win? 180
16. Seats will Labour win? 390
18. Seats will Lib Dems win? 50
20. Seats will the SNP win? 20
22. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
24. Seats will DUP win? 6
26. Seats will Reform come second in? 15
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 30%
22. Will Reform get across the UK? 8%
25. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32%
27. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28%
29. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 30%
31. Will Speaker get? 67%
Complex .. RU the ghost og Gordon Brown? :-)
“Denmark PM confronted by a Pakistani Muslim.
“We have 5 children while you have 1 or 2.
In 10 years, there will be more Pakis(Muslims) than Danes here.
There are only 5 million Danes. You will soon be exterminated””
https://x.com/imtiazmadmood/status/1800049986635448633?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
They don’t seem very nice
Is this another alias of which we haven’t been informed?
(No offence @Leon only joshing)
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/05/parties/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0n88tZQc4Q
I mean, they do do accumulators don’t they? Related what you say?
I guess this is how they defend zelensky. Layers and layers of tough armed security. It goes on and on. This entire quarter of the city is heavily fortified and impenetrable
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 47
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 87
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 26
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 257
5. Reform lose their deposit? 373
6. Labour lose their deposit? 19
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 37,654
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 21,236
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 9
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 356
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 14
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 138
14. Seats will Labour win? 382
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 42
16. Seats will the SNP win? 20
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 6
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 47
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 24%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 11%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 31%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 34%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 40%
25. Will Speaker get? 83%