I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old
History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling
Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on
That’s incredible
For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.
Again, setting themselves up for a massive pensioner backlash. Entirely inconsistent with the thinking behind the quadruple lock.
Yep. The new mechanism is valuable to poor pensioners reliant wholly on the state handout (whom the Government doesn't much care about as they mostly back Labour,) but it's of more limited relevance to the core vote. Most Tory oldies are going to be better-off types with fat old-fashioned occupational schemes, so whining and grumbling about the unfairness of it all will continue regardless. Sunak does seem to be making everything up as he goes along
The main thing is that this problem has only arisen because some nitwit decided to freeze income tax thresholds during a time of significant inflation.
And if Rishi ever finds out who that nitwit was, he will show no mercy to him.
I take it you were for cutting government expenditure ?
New Rishi Sunak language on D-Day debacle - 'I just hope people can find it in their hearts to forgive me'
'I absolutely didn’t mean to cause anyone any more upset, and that’s why I apologise unreservedly for the mistake that I made
'And I just hope people can find it in their hearts to forgive me and look at my actions that I’ve taken as prime minister to support our armed forces'
The PM reduced to pitiful pleading of the “please don’t hurt me” variety. Abject. Embarrassing.
Rishi now has a giant pink pig bursting through a street in his latest ad this morning. I am serious! Don't know what the CCHQ team were on last night but must have been strong
For all the talk about Labour’s massive majority being bad for democracy, I think a Labour Party facing LOTO Ed Davey would be a welcome change.
Starmer vs Davey every week, with Davey pressing Labour on Social care etc? That could feel like a massive breath of fresh air compared to the last few years.
161st safest seat on notionals, so in line with trying to defend a 1997 position. And the Reform candidate has been disowned here for racism par extraordinaire so its a seat they definitely want to ensure stays blue
What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?
It is pretty meaningless. I'd call them hard right - so that like the Swedish Democrats they have moved from their failed far right entities into a more mainstream version. Marine certainly is NOT the same as old Jean-Marie. The attitude to democracy is key to any use of the f-word and I see no evidence Mme Le Pen or Meloni are anti-democratic. Unilike a Putin, Orban or Trump.
Listening to Sunaks new mea culpa over DDay I think its probably time for the press to move on now. He's offered a proper apology and admitted by words what a dreadful decision it was so its up to voters whether to accept or reject that. But we go to the polls in 3 and a half weeks and the future of the country really isn't about that one afternoon in Normandy. They've got a job to do covering the election, I think they've probably exhausted anything to be gleaned from this part of it.
The only lingering question is whether he considered not attending at all. If that proves to be true he is totally cooked.
I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old
History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling
Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
And one can go and see the earth closet he was using about that time, at his birthplace. Though IIRC the NT do not encourage visitors to interact further with it, contrary to usual museum policy those days. (I do suppose there is a H&S issue, tbf.)
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
'An electroacoustic pipe organ of 24 pipes is built into the podium. An algorithm for translating the names of the victims into sound was developed specifically for this pipe organ. Each letter in the Hebrew alphabet was assigned its own number. According to the gematria principle, the names of the victims have been translated into numbers, which, in turn, set the pitch of the sound. The combination of audio waves of the name numbers creates a sound composition. The main background is overlaid with archival recordings of pre-war Kyiv, unique Yiddish songs of the 1920s and 1930s from the collections of the National Library named after V. Vernadsky restored by the Institute for Information Recording of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Choral and Memorial Christian music, Ukrainian and Roma Memorial songs, works by contemporary Ukrainian composers are performed as well.'
I wondered if this was the case in your original pic.
'The columns and the disk were shot through by bullets of the same caliber that the Nazis used during execution in Babyn Yar.'
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
Listening to Sunaks new mea culpa over DDay I think its probably time for the press to move on now. He's offered a proper apology and admitted by words what a dreadful decision it was so its up to voters whether to accept or reject that. But we go to the polls in 3 and a half weeks and the future of the country really isn't about that one afternoon in Normandy. They've got a job to do covering the election, I think they've probably exhausted anything to be gleaned from this part of it.
The Tories are doing their part to keep it alive - today's tax lie ad, for example, is a return to the core theme of the interview that he left dumped D-Day to record.
I think it's now all but certain that the story will remain in the news at least until the interview is broadcast on Wednesday, and probably another day or two after that to allow for analysis/reaction.
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old
History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling
Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on
That’s incredible
For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
Got Eamon Duffy's history of the village. Must find it and reread it now you've reminded me.
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
Isn't it the other way round?
"I will therefore stand down as leader following the election on July 4, once a successor is elected. Should I win the seat, I will also stand down as an MSP to make way for another Scottish Conservative representative in Holyrood."
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
That's a slightly different point. Some leaders have already paid the price. Will Swinney survive the loss of more than half his MPs? His track record in elections when he was last leader wasn't exactly stellar.
Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?
I note the AfD are trying to clean up their act by sacking one of their more attention attarcting leaders. This may lead to them sitting with LePen again in Brussels. With Scholz now under pressure to call fresh elections they are trying to grab respectability.
2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.
Again, setting themselves up for a massive pensioner backlash. Entirely inconsistent with the thinking behind the quadruple lock.
Yep. The new mechanism is valuable to poor pensioners reliant wholly on the state handout (whom the Government doesn't much care about as they mostly back Labour,) but it's of more limited relevance to the core vote. Most Tory oldies are going to be better-off types with fat old-fashioned occupational schemes, so whining and grumbling about the unfairness of it all will continue regardless. Sunak does seem to be making everything up as he goes along
The main thing is that this problem has only arisen because some nitwit decided to freeze income tax thresholds during a time of significant inflation.
And if Rishi ever finds out who that nitwit was, he will show no mercy to him.
I take it you were for cutting government expenditure ?
You take wrong, because I don't see where the honest cuts come from. (Saving money by cutting quangos doesn't count, unless you say what happens to the things they were doing.)
But if taxes must go up, threshold freezes are the sneakiest and nastiest way to do it. Especially when you do it for multiple years in one mumbled sentence in a budget speech.
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
That's a slightly different point. Some leaders have already paid the price. Will Swinney survive the loss of more than half his MPs? His track record in elections when he was last leader wasn't exactly stellar.
Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
However ... "recordable donation" (a) does not include smaller donations; and (b) in Toryspeak - and Labour, or at least Llafur - all too often means "big money from extremely dodgy donors".
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
That's a slightly different point. Some leaders have already paid the price. Will Swinney survive the loss of more than half his MPs? His track record in elections when he was last leader wasn't exactly stellar.
Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
Tons of racist millionaire's money don't seem to be doing the Tories much good.
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
The first flowchart resignation
Taking the piss even more than I had realised, *if* DL is right. I think RP is on to a good attack line there already.
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
That infographic is communist propaganda. The point is that 'centrists' don't solve any problems but just lead to fascism and the solution is to get rid of capitalism.
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
But he might change his mind again. Silly me, I had forgotten that.
'An electroacoustic pipe organ of 24 pipes is built into the podium. An algorithm for translating the names of the victims into sound was developed specifically for this pipe organ. Each letter in the Hebrew alphabet was assigned its own number. According to the gematria principle, the names of the victims have been translated into numbers, which, in turn, set the pitch of the sound. The combination of audio waves of the name numbers creates a sound composition. The main background is overlaid with archival recordings of pre-war Kyiv, unique Yiddish songs of the 1920s and 1930s from the collections of the National Library named after V. Vernadsky restored by the Institute for Information Recording of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Choral and Memorial Christian music, Ukrainian and Roma Memorial songs, works by contemporary Ukrainian composers are performed as well.'
I wondered if this was the case in your original pic.
'The columns and the disk were shot through by bullets of the same caliber that the Nazis used during execution in Babyn Yar.'
It is genuinely superb - and chilling. A lot of Holocaust memorials leave me a little cold - most memorials leave me fairly cold - this is a masterpiece
Unfortunately it is all tied up - and in some ways poisoned - by the politics behind it. A lot of Russian Jewish oligarchs paid for it, and it was opened just before the war
The thorny story is here. Like me the writer is moved by this, however
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
But he might change his mind again. Silly me, I had forgotten that.
We really need VAR here.
Once he adds up the numbers from only 2 salaries, who knows?
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….
No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
But he might change his mind again. Silly me, I had forgotten that.
We really need VAR here.
I do love the way he and the SNP between them are making Scottish politics so interesting. The bizarre unpredictability of the whole thing is great fun to watch.
2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.
Again, setting themselves up for a massive pensioner backlash. Entirely inconsistent with the thinking behind the quadruple lock.
Yep. The new mechanism is valuable to poor pensioners reliant wholly on the state handout (whom the Government doesn't much care about as they mostly back Labour,) but it's of more limited relevance to the core vote. Most Tory oldies are going to be better-off types with fat old-fashioned occupational schemes, so whining and grumbling about the unfairness of it all will continue regardless. Sunak does seem to be making everything up as he goes along
The main thing is that this problem has only arisen because some nitwit decided to freeze income tax thresholds during a time of significant inflation.
And if Rishi ever finds out who that nitwit was, he will show no mercy to him.
I take it you were for cutting government expenditure ?
You take wrong, because I don't see where the honest cuts come from. (Saving money by cutting quangos doesn't count, unless you say what happens to the things they were doing.)
But if taxes must go up, threshold freezes are the sneakiest and nastiest way to do it. Especially when you do it for multiple years in one mumbled sentence in a budget speech.
Starmer has already committed to keeping fiscal drag in place. as he needs the money.
As for cuts if you cant find savings in a £1200 billion budget you shouldn't be in office.
Quangos, debt repayment, Publuc sector productivity, there are lots of places.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
Another brilliant thing about Mirror Field - this art installation at Babi Yar - when the sun shines it reflects off the stainless steel so the whole thing becomes physically painful. You burn
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
What policies can you come up with that would pass the you’ve had 14 years WTF haven’t you already done that test?
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
What policies can you come up with that would pass the you’ve had 14 years WTF haven’t you already done that test?
The point is theyve had 14 years. They have no out.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
It is the tricycle of Dr Harrie Larrington-Spencer (@tricyclemayor on Twitter, who is doing research into whether physical barriers reduce motorcycle ASB) being rescued by a recovery service after she had a puncture. For techies the tyres are Marathon Pluses (removing them makes a strong man weep) running Tannus inserts - it must have been one hell of a drawing pin. It is a Babboe Flow Mountain e-cargo bike which weighs 69kg, and has a stepless gearbox.
Reactions have been interesting in the desire to avoid the underlying point - that especially for disabled people such vehicles give autonomy and equality. Far fewer disabled have driving licences - 40% of adults do not vs 25% of able-bodied.
eg "Not able to do basic repairs should not be on the road". Fascinating doublethink - no mention of those of us who call out the AA to a spare tyre.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
Blair and Brown fair enough. Prescott (hooligan) Kinnock (twice loser) Cook (weird) Livingston (weird and bonkers) and Beckett (later to vote for Corbyn by accident). So yeah, all the talents.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
"Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan. Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.
Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ? Cut your 4% from NHS England ?
Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
Blair and Brown fair enough. Prescott (hooligan) Kinnock (twice loser) Cook (weird) Livingston (weird and bonkers) and Beckett (later to vote for Corbyn by accident). So yeah, all the talents.
And every one of them worth 5 Starmers or a dozen Reeves
The "energised" aspect (together with him bouncing up and down so much as he says it) harks back to their attempt last month to push a 'Sleepy Keith' narrative.
Not sure it's going to work for him quite so well this time, on the morning after he returns to the campaign after having taken two days in a row off.
Listening to Sunaks new mea culpa over DDay I think its probably time for the press to move on now. He's offered a proper apology and admitted by words what a dreadful decision it was so its up to voters whether to accept or reject that. But we go to the polls in 3 and a half weeks and the future of the country really isn't about that one afternoon in Normandy. They've got a job to do covering the election, I think they've probably exhausted anything to be gleaned from this part of it.
Phil Burton-Cartledge, leftie blogger has compiled a list of the left independents standing in this election. Might be a good resource for people looking at potential left-wing vote splitting.
Aberdeen South - Sophie Molly Banbury - Cassie Bellingham Bethnal Green and Stepney - Ajmal Masroor Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Ellie Merton Birmingham Edgbaston - Ammar Waraich Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Mohammad Hafeez Birmingham Ladywood - Akhmed Yakoob Birmingham Selly Oak - Kamel Hawwash Brentford and Isleworth - Zebunisa Rao Bristol East - Wael Arafat Cardiff West - John Urquhart Central Devon - Arthur Price Chingford and Woodford Green - Faiza Shaheen Dewsbury West - Tanisha Bramwell Dudley - Shakeela Bibi East Ham - Tahir Mirza Eltham and Chislehurst - John Courtneidge Enfield North - Ertan Karpazli Feltham and Heston - Damian Read Frome and East Somerset - Gareth Heathcote Grantham and Bourne - Charmaine Morgan Harrow West - Pamela Fitzpatrick Heywood and Middleton North - Chris Furlong Holborn St Pancras - Andrew Feinstein Hove and Portslade - Tanushka Marah Ilford North - Leanne Mohamad Ilford South - Syed Siddiqi Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn Kensington and Bayswater - Emma Dent Coad Kingston and Surbiton - Yvonne Tracey Leicester East - Claudia Webbe Leicester South - Shockat Adam Leyton and Wanstead - Shanell Johnson Liverpool Garston - Sam Gorst Liverpool Wavertree - Anne San Mid Cheshire - Helen Clawson Monmouthshire - Owen Lewis Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Yvonne Ridley Newport East - Pippa Bartolotti Oxford East - Jabu Nala-Hartley Preston - Michael Lavalette Reading West and Mod Berkshire - Adrian Abbs Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Maxine Bowler Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Mike Baldock South Dorset - Giovanna Lewis Southgate and Wood Green - Karl Vidol Southport - Sean Halsall Stockport - Asley Walker Stockton West - Monty Brack Stoke-on-Trent Central - Andy Polshaw Stratford and Bow - Fiona Lali Stratford and Bow - Steve Headley Tottenham - Nandita Lal Tunbridge Wells - Hassan Kassem Walsall and Bloxwich - Aftab Nawaz Wells and Mendip Hills - Abi McGuire West Suffolk - Katie Parker West Ham and Beckton - Sophia Naqvi Wigan - Jan Cunliffe Windsor - David Buckley Wycombe - Ajaz Rehman
Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
No, he's jumping before being pushed. And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely 2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails 3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)... https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see. A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
That infographic is communist propaganda. The point is that 'centrists' don't solve any problems but just lead to fascism and the solution is to get rid of capitalism.
"Communist propaganda". F4s in the skies, everybody in tanktops and tashes, Angel Delight and the Generation Game, nylon suits and dresses, chips and beans for tea, Kenneth Kendall and Richard Baker, orange Cortinas, oh jumpers for goalposts...
Ok, I know it's ultimately an exercise in politcal irrelevancy, but which of the rich smörgåsbord of talent on the Holyrood benches is next SCon leader? I'm going for Sandesh 'does my hair look good' Gulhane, with a lol saver on Annie Wells.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
Blair and Brown fair enough. Prescott (hooligan) Kinnock (twice loser) Cook (weird) Livingston (weird and bonkers) and Beckett (later to vote for Corbyn by accident). So yeah, all the talents.
And there's more than a touch of rear view mirror in assessing the array of 'talent'. Labour could surprise on the upside (or downside) once in government. The Tories have no upside surprises left in them.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
"Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan. Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.
Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ? Cut your 4% from NHS England ?
Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.
You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.
Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.
I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old
History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling
Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on
That’s incredible
For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
Got Eamon Duffy's history of the village. Must find it and reread it now you've reminded me.
As Duffy himself says, it is a "pendant" to Stripping of the Altars, which is an amazing work of scholarship but gets a bit polemical in trying to wrest the narrative of the Traditionalists like AJ Dickens. The reality is quite nuanced. In England, rural upland areas seemed to be the most Catholic, while Londoners were actually getting ahead of themselves in tearing down crucifixes and altars etc before governmental injunction required it - in fact a few parishes were required to put them back up. Duffy isn't good on geographical nuance IMHO.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
But the LibDems have got Paddleboard Man!
And the Lib Dems have just had an excellent manifesto launch. You are so obsessed with Labour and Conservatives, you seem to have missed that.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
If your argument is that the general quality of our political class has been in freefall since 1997 (and even well before then), you'll catch no disagreement from me.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
Actually four.
May was not much better. Cameron I found to be complacent, insulated and diastrously ideologically blinkered in areas like welfare, but he was reasonably competent.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
"Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan. Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.
Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ? Cut your 4% from NHS England ?
Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.
You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.
Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.
Thank you for illustrating my point. The OBR's annual spend is about £5m.
Ok, I know it's ultimately an exercise in politcal irrelevancy, but which of the rich smörgåsbord of talent on the Holyrood benches is next SCon leader? I'm going for Sandesh 'does my hair look good' Gulhane, with a lol saver on Annie Wells.
What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?
I note the AfD are trying to clean up their act by sacking one of their more attention attarcting leaders. This may lead to them sitting with LePen again in Brussels. With Scholz now under pressure to call fresh elections they are trying to grab respectability.
The AfD sacked Krah a couple of weeks ago. Except they couldn't! He was Number 1 on the AfD national list and it was too late to take him off the list. Portillo Moments are not possible in German politics.
OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.
We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.
My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...
Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
But the LibDems have got Paddleboard Man!
And the Lib Dems have just had an excellent manifesto launch. You are so obsessed with Labour and Conservatives, you seem to have missed that.
What on earth is 'an excellent manifesto launch'? It's a manifesto launch, they are all the same, the voters will later give their verdict
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
"Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan. Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.
Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ? Cut your 4% from NHS England ?
Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.
You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.
Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.
It's hard to argue we're strapped for cash while we still have the Arts Council.
If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
"Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan. Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.
Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ? Cut your 4% from NHS England ?
Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.
You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.
Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.
There are going to be a hell of a lot more in 5 years time if Labour implement their promised policies.
I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old
History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling
Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on
That’s incredible
For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
Got Eamon Duffy's history of the village. Must find it and reread it now you've reminded me.
As Duffy himself says, it is a "pendant" to Stripping of the Altars, which is an amazing work of scholarship but gets a bit polemical in trying to wrest the narrative of the Traditionalists like AJ Dickens. The reality is quite nuanced. In England, rural upland areas seemed to be the most Catholic, while Londoners were actually getting ahead of themselves in tearing down crucifixes and altars etc before governmental injunction required it - in fact a few parishes were required to put them back up. Duffy isn't good on geographical nuance IMHO.
I do find it desperately sad to wander round places like Glastonbury Abbey, or the London Charterhouse, and contemplate what was lost - as well as the courage of people who were martyred in a lost cause.
Comments
I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624
We'll see.
A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today
Conservative majority 21,127
It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list
More details here
https://www.archdaily.com/968854/mirror-field-installation-babyn-yar-holocaust-memorial-center
Starmer vs Davey every week, with Davey pressing Labour on Social care etc? That could feel like a massive breath of fresh air compared to the last few years.
https://x.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1799932521410375906
https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183
'An electroacoustic pipe organ of 24 pipes is built into the podium. An algorithm for translating the names of the victims into sound was developed specifically for this pipe organ. Each letter in the Hebrew alphabet was assigned its own number. According to the gematria principle, the names of the victims have been translated into numbers, which, in turn, set the pitch of the sound. The combination of audio waves of the name numbers creates a sound composition. The main background is overlaid with archival recordings of pre-war Kyiv, unique Yiddish songs of the 1920s and 1930s from the collections of the National Library named after V. Vernadsky restored by the Institute for Information Recording of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Choral and Memorial Christian music, Ukrainian and Roma Memorial songs, works by contemporary Ukrainian composers are performed as well.'
I wondered if this was the case in your original pic.
'The columns and the disk were shot through by bullets of the same caliber that the Nazis used during execution in Babyn Yar.'
I think it's now all but certain that the story will remain in the news at least until the interview is broadcast on Wednesday, and probably another day or two after that to allow for analysis/reaction.
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
"I will therefore stand down as leader following the election on July 4, once a successor is elected. Should I win the seat, I will also stand down as an MSP to make way for another Scottish Conservative representative in Holyrood."
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24376505.douglas-ross-resign-scottish-tory-leader-general-election/
Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
But if taxes must go up, threshold freezes are the sneakiest and nastiest way to do it. Especially when you do it for multiple years in one mumbled sentence in a budget speech.
Farage the TV personality and funny geezer versus Farage the future of politics
We really need VAR here.
Unfortunately it is all tied up - and in some ways
poisoned - by the politics behind it. A lot of Russian Jewish oligarchs paid for it, and it was opened just before the war
The thorny story is here. Like me the writer is moved by this, however
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/18/the-holocaust-memorial-undone-by-another-war
At most, we’ve had about a day of it in the fieldwork for the most recent polls.
Is there a big calendar anywhere that shows “Here is when the next big poll is coming out” ?
As for cuts if you cant find savings in a £1200 billion budget you shouldn't be in office.
Quangos, debt repayment, Publuc sector productivity, there are lots of places.
Find 4% and we dont have a deficit.
This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
The shark hasn't done anything to deserve the alternative.
To venomous toads.
The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
Possibly a similar crop today?
https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-politics/trump-finally-weighs-in-on-controversial-shark-vs-electrocution-debate/
https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1800113734595277189?s=61
Is that longer than the 1983 Labour effort?
https://x.com/tricyclemayor/status/1798998515718500596
It is the tricycle of Dr Harrie Larrington-Spencer (@tricyclemayor on Twitter, who is doing research into whether physical barriers reduce motorcycle ASB) being rescued by a recovery service after she had a puncture. For techies the tyres are Marathon Pluses (removing them makes a strong man weep) running Tannus inserts - it must have been one hell of a drawing pin. It is a Babboe Flow Mountain e-cargo bike which weighs 69kg, and has a stepless gearbox.
Reactions have been interesting in the desire to avoid the underlying point - that especially for disabled people such vehicles give autonomy and equality. Far fewer disabled have driving licences - 40% of adults do not vs 25% of able-bodied.
eg "Not able to do basic repairs should not be on the road". Fascinating doublethink - no mention of those of us who call out the AA to a spare tyre.
Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.
Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ?
Cut your 4% from NHS England ?
Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
Is there such a thing as a euthenasia note?
https://x.com/skynews/status/1800121606368276770?s=61
Not sure it's going to work for him quite so well this time, on the morning after he returns to the campaign after having taken two days in a row off.
https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-far-left-and-2024-general-election.html
Banbury - Cassie Bellingham
Bethnal Green and Stepney - Ajmal Masroor
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Ellie Merton
Birmingham Edgbaston - Ammar Waraich
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Mohammad Hafeez
Birmingham Ladywood - Akhmed Yakoob
Birmingham Selly Oak - Kamel Hawwash
Brentford and Isleworth - Zebunisa Rao
Bristol East - Wael Arafat
Cardiff West - John Urquhart
Central Devon - Arthur Price
Chingford and Woodford Green - Faiza Shaheen
Dewsbury West - Tanisha Bramwell
Dudley - Shakeela Bibi
East Ham - Tahir Mirza
Eltham and Chislehurst - John Courtneidge
Enfield North - Ertan Karpazli
Feltham and Heston - Damian Read
Frome and East Somerset - Gareth Heathcote
Grantham and Bourne - Charmaine Morgan
Harrow West - Pamela Fitzpatrick
Heywood and Middleton North - Chris Furlong
Holborn St Pancras - Andrew Feinstein
Hove and Portslade - Tanushka Marah
Ilford North - Leanne Mohamad
Ilford South - Syed Siddiqi
Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn
Kensington and Bayswater - Emma Dent Coad
Kingston and Surbiton - Yvonne Tracey
Leicester East - Claudia Webbe
Leicester South - Shockat Adam
Leyton and Wanstead - Shanell Johnson
Liverpool Garston - Sam Gorst
Liverpool Wavertree - Anne San
Mid Cheshire - Helen Clawson
Monmouthshire - Owen Lewis
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Yvonne Ridley
Newport East - Pippa Bartolotti
Oxford East - Jabu Nala-Hartley
Preston - Michael Lavalette
Reading West and Mod Berkshire - Adrian Abbs
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Maxine Bowler
Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Mike Baldock
South Dorset - Giovanna Lewis
Southgate and Wood Green - Karl Vidol
Southport - Sean Halsall
Stockport - Asley Walker
Stockton West - Monty Brack
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Andy Polshaw
Stratford and Bow - Fiona Lali
Stratford and Bow - Steve Headley
Tottenham - Nandita Lal
Tunbridge Wells - Hassan Kassem
Walsall and Bloxwich - Aftab Nawaz
Wells and Mendip Hills - Abi McGuire
West Suffolk - Katie Parker
West Ham and Beckton - Sophia Naqvi
Wigan - Jan Cunliffe
Windsor - David Buckley
Wycombe - Ajaz Rehman
Labour could surprise on the upside (or downside) once in government.
The Tories have no upside surprises left in them.
Perhaps a bit of recalibration has been performed over Sunday lunch?
You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.
Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.
May was not much better. Cameron I found to be complacent, insulated and diastrously ideologically blinkered in areas like welfare, but he was reasonably competent.
The OBR's annual spend is about £5m.
It's a manifesto launch, they are all the same, the voters will later give their verdict
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko