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The Tory Party’s long term problems – politicalbetting.com

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  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old

    History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling

    Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
    Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on

    That’s incredible
    For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Libs launching their manifesto. When are the Tory and Labour launches? Do we know?

    Lab is thursday apparently
    Mon LD
    Tues Con
    Weds Green for lolz
    Thurs Lab
    Will allow Sunak to repetitively chant "Labour has no Plan!" on Wednesday's leadership debate, annoyingly.
    True, but overall it's an advantage to go last I think
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405

    pigeon said:

    Eabhal said:

    2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.

    Again, setting themselves up for a massive pensioner backlash. Entirely inconsistent with the thinking behind the quadruple lock.
    Yep. The new mechanism is valuable to poor pensioners reliant wholly on the state handout (whom the Government doesn't much care about as they mostly back Labour,) but it's of more limited relevance to the core vote. Most Tory oldies are going to be better-off types with fat old-fashioned occupational schemes, so whining and grumbling about the unfairness of it all will continue regardless. Sunak does seem to be making everything up as he goes along
    The main thing is that this problem has only arisen because some nitwit decided to freeze income tax thresholds during a time of significant inflation.

    And if Rishi ever finds out who that nitwit was, he will show no mercy to him.
    I take it you were for cutting government expenditure ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim said:

    New Rishi Sunak language on D-Day debacle - 'I just hope people can find it in their hearts to forgive me'

    'I absolutely didn’t mean to cause anyone any more upset, and that’s why I apologise unreservedly for the mistake that I made

    'And I just hope people can find it in their hearts to forgive me and look at my actions that I’ve taken as prime minister to support our armed forces'

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1800099846981890385?s=46

    The PM reduced to pitiful pleading of the “please don’t hurt me” variety. Abject. Embarrassing.

    Rishi now has a giant pink pig bursting through a street in his latest ad this morning. I am serious! Don't know what the CCHQ team were on last night but must have been strong

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1800074182715494714
    Is that Peppa? Has Boris been helping his old friend Rishi out?
    Wasn't there something about David Cameron and a pig?

    Seems to be a theme.
    Not to forget "pork markets".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    When is Reform's manifesto launch, do we know?
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/1800108606811185396?s=46

    Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today

    Conservative majority 21,127

    It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    It’s tremendous. One of the greatest artworks I’ve ever encountered. Also fascinating and richly complex

    More details here

    https://www.archdaily.com/968854/mirror-field-installation-babyn-yar-holocaust-memorial-center
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,353
    What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?
  • I'm loath to link to twitter (formerly known as X) but once again Sir Michael Take has spoken for the nation.

    https://x.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1799932521410375906
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/1800108606811185396?s=46

    Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today

    Conservative majority 21,127

    It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list

    161st safest seat on notionals, so in line with trying to defend a 1997 position. And the Reform candidate has been disowned here for racism par extraordinaire so its a seat they definitely want to ensure stays blue
  • Sean_F said:

    What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?

    It is pretty meaningless. I'd call them hard right - so that like the Swedish Democrats they have moved from their failed far right entities into a more mainstream version. Marine certainly is NOT the same as old Jean-Marie. The attitude to democracy is key to any use of the f-word and I see no evidence Mme Le Pen or Meloni are anti-democratic. Unilike a Putin, Orban or Trump.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Listening to Sunaks new mea culpa over DDay I think its probably time for the press to move on now. He's offered a proper apology and admitted by words what a dreadful decision it was so its up to voters whether to accept or reject that. But we go to the polls in 3 and a half weeks and the future of the country really isn't about that one afternoon in Normandy.
    They've got a job to do covering the election, I think they've probably exhausted anything to be gleaned from this part of it.

    The only lingering question is whether he considered not attending at all. If that proves to be true he is totally cooked.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited June 10

    When is Reform's manifesto launch, do we know?

    Launched in July 1925 and called M... K....?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old

    History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling

    Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
    And one can go and see the earth closet he was using about that time, at his birthplace. Though IIRC the NT do not encourage visitors to interact further with it, contrary to usual museum policy those days. (I do suppose there is a H&S issue, tbf.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited June 10
    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    Leon said:

    It’s tremendous. One of the greatest artworks I’ve ever encountered. Also fascinating and richly complex

    More details here

    https://www.archdaily.com/968854/mirror-field-installation-babyn-yar-holocaust-memorial-center

    Sounds (literally) pretty impressive.

    'An electroacoustic pipe organ of 24 pipes is built into the podium. An algorithm for translating the names of the victims into sound was developed specifically for this pipe organ. Each letter in the Hebrew alphabet was assigned its own number. According to the gematria principle, the names of the victims have been translated into numbers, which, in turn, set the pitch of the sound. The combination of audio waves of the name numbers creates a sound composition. The main background is overlaid with archival recordings of pre-war Kyiv, unique Yiddish songs of the 1920s and 1930s from the collections of the National Library named after V. Vernadsky restored by the Institute for Information Recording of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Choral and Memorial Christian music, Ukrainian and Roma Memorial songs, works by contemporary Ukrainian composers are performed as well.'

    I wondered if this was the case in your original pic.

    'The columns and the disk were shot through by bullets of the same caliber that the Nazis used during execution in Babyn Yar.'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    Listening to Sunaks new mea culpa over DDay I think its probably time for the press to move on now. He's offered a proper apology and admitted by words what a dreadful decision it was so its up to voters whether to accept or reject that. But we go to the polls in 3 and a half weeks and the future of the country really isn't about that one afternoon in Normandy.
    They've got a job to do covering the election, I think they've probably exhausted anything to be gleaned from this part of it.

    The Tories are doing their part to keep it alive - today's tax lie ad, for example, is a return to the core theme of the interview that he left dumped D-Day to record.

    I think it's now all but certain that the story will remain in the news at least until the interview is broadcast on Wednesday, and probably another day or two after that to allow for analysis/reaction.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old

    History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling

    Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
    Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on

    That’s incredible
    For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
    Got Eamon Duffy's history of the village. Must find it and reread it now you've reminded me.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
    Or, as a neat infographic,



    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
    Please sir, please sir, what stage are we at?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653

    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
    The first flowchart resignation
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    Isn't it the other way round?

    "I will therefore stand down as leader following the election on July 4, once a successor is elected. Should I win the seat, I will also stand down as an MSP to make way for another Scottish Conservative representative in Holyrood."

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24376505.douglas-ross-resign-scottish-tory-leader-general-election/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
    That's a slightly different point. Some leaders have already paid the price. Will Swinney survive the loss of more than half his MPs? His track record in elections when he was last leader wasn't exactly stellar.

    Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    Sean_F said:

    What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?

    I note the AfD are trying to clean up their act by sacking one of their more attention attarcting leaders. This may lead to them sitting with LePen again in Brussels. With Scholz now under pressure to call fresh elections they are trying to grab respectability.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    pigeon said:

    Eabhal said:

    2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.

    Again, setting themselves up for a massive pensioner backlash. Entirely inconsistent with the thinking behind the quadruple lock.
    Yep. The new mechanism is valuable to poor pensioners reliant wholly on the state handout (whom the Government doesn't much care about as they mostly back Labour,) but it's of more limited relevance to the core vote. Most Tory oldies are going to be better-off types with fat old-fashioned occupational schemes, so whining and grumbling about the unfairness of it all will continue regardless. Sunak does seem to be making everything up as he goes along
    The main thing is that this problem has only arisen because some nitwit decided to freeze income tax thresholds during a time of significant inflation.

    And if Rishi ever finds out who that nitwit was, he will show no mercy to him.
    I take it you were for cutting government expenditure ?
    You take wrong, because I don't see where the honest cuts come from. (Saving money by cutting quangos doesn't count, unless you say what happens to the things they were doing.)

    But if taxes must go up, threshold freezes are the sneakiest and nastiest way to do it. Especially when you do it for multiple years in one mumbled sentence in a budget speech.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1800120029033447732?s=19

    Farage the TV personality and funny geezer versus Farage the future of politics
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
    Or, as a neat infographic,



    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
    Please sir, please sir, what stage are we at?
    Currently yellow and remain yellow with a Sunak win.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
    That's a slightly different point. Some leaders have already paid the price. Will Swinney survive the loss of more than half his MPs? His track record in elections when he was last leader wasn't exactly stellar.

    Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
    However ... "recordable donation" (a) does not include smaller donations; and (b) in Toryspeak - and Labour, or at least Llafur - all too often means "big money from extremely dodgy donors".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Erm, don't you mean Tory leaders plural?
    That's a slightly different point. Some leaders have already paid the price. Will Swinney survive the loss of more than half his MPs? His track record in elections when he was last leader wasn't exactly stellar.

    Did you see that the SNP did not get a single recordable donation in the first 3 months of this year? Not one. Even the wills seem to have dried up. They are living on the Short money from the UK government. If that is significantly reduced they are going to be in terrible trouble.
    Tons of racist millionaire's money don't seem to be doing the Tories much good.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited June 10
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
    The first flowchart resignation
    Taking the piss even more than I had realised, *if* DL is right. I think RP is on to a good attack line there already.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
    Or, as a neat infographic,



    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
    That infographic is communist propaganda. The point is that 'centrists' don't solve any problems but just lead to fascism and the solution is to get rid of capitalism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,353

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
    Or, as a neat infographic,



    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
    Neither sensible centrists, nor radical right, are truly honest with the voters. But then, the voters don't reward honesty.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
    But he might change his mind again. Silly me, I had forgotten that.

    We really need VAR here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Nigelb said:

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
    I'd take either for him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    It’s tremendous. One of the greatest artworks I’ve ever encountered. Also fascinating and richly complex

    More details here

    https://www.archdaily.com/968854/mirror-field-installation-babyn-yar-holocaust-memorial-center

    Sounds (literally) pretty impressive.

    'An electroacoustic pipe organ of 24 pipes is built into the podium. An algorithm for translating the names of the victims into sound was developed specifically for this pipe organ. Each letter in the Hebrew alphabet was assigned its own number. According to the gematria principle, the names of the victims have been translated into numbers, which, in turn, set the pitch of the sound. The combination of audio waves of the name numbers creates a sound composition. The main background is overlaid with archival recordings of pre-war Kyiv, unique Yiddish songs of the 1920s and 1930s from the collections of the National Library named after V. Vernadsky restored by the Institute for Information Recording of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Choral and Memorial Christian music, Ukrainian and Roma Memorial songs, works by contemporary Ukrainian composers are performed as well.'

    I wondered if this was the case in your original pic.

    'The columns and the disk were shot through by bullets of the same caliber that the Nazis used during execution in Babyn Yar.'
    It is genuinely superb - and chilling. A lot of Holocaust memorials leave me a little cold - most memorials leave me fairly cold - this is a masterpiece

    Unfortunately it is all tied up - and in some ways
    poisoned - by the politics behind it. A lot of Russian Jewish oligarchs paid for it, and it was opened just before the war

    The thorny story is here. Like me the writer is moved by this, however

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/18/the-holocaust-memorial-undone-by-another-war
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    When are the first polls coming that take D Day Gate more fully into account in the fieldwork range?

    At most, we’ve had about a day of it in the fieldwork for the most recent polls.

    Is there a big calendar anywhere that shows “Here is when the next big poll is coming out” ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
    But he might change his mind again. Silly me, I had forgotten that.

    We really need VAR here.
    Once he adds up the numbers from only 2 salaries, who knows?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
    Or, as a neat infographic,



    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
    Or, as neat but simplistic drivel

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    The DRoss resignation only piles the pressure onto Sunak. Scot Tories without a leader. Don’t tell me that leaders can’t resign mid-campaign as he’s just done it….

    No he hasn't. It is a contingent resignation, dependent upon him winning your seat. If he doesn't he remains an MSP although whether he would be able to remain leader for long thereafter remains to be seen.
    I think he's resigning as leader whatever happens.
    But he might change his mind again. Silly me, I had forgotten that.

    We really need VAR here.
    I do love the way he and the SNP between them are making Scottish politics so interesting. The bizarre unpredictability of the whole thing is great fun to watch.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405

    pigeon said:

    Eabhal said:

    2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.

    Again, setting themselves up for a massive pensioner backlash. Entirely inconsistent with the thinking behind the quadruple lock.
    Yep. The new mechanism is valuable to poor pensioners reliant wholly on the state handout (whom the Government doesn't much care about as they mostly back Labour,) but it's of more limited relevance to the core vote. Most Tory oldies are going to be better-off types with fat old-fashioned occupational schemes, so whining and grumbling about the unfairness of it all will continue regardless. Sunak does seem to be making everything up as he goes along
    The main thing is that this problem has only arisen because some nitwit decided to freeze income tax thresholds during a time of significant inflation.

    And if Rishi ever finds out who that nitwit was, he will show no mercy to him.
    I take it you were for cutting government expenditure ?
    You take wrong, because I don't see where the honest cuts come from. (Saving money by cutting quangos doesn't count, unless you say what happens to the things they were doing.)

    But if taxes must go up, threshold freezes are the sneakiest and nastiest way to do it. Especially when you do it for multiple years in one mumbled sentence in a budget speech.
    Starmer has already committed to keeping fiscal drag in place. as he needs the money.

    As for cuts if you cant find savings in a £1200 billion budget you shouldn't be in office.

    Quangos, debt repayment, Publuc sector productivity, there are lots of places.

    Find 4% and we dont have a deficit.

  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    2p off NI in the Tory manifesto apparently. The absolute shittest of the tax cuts. Of course.

    I think it's a good tax cut, if tax cuts were achievable. Will this be paid for by 'cracking down on tax avoidance'?
    Nah. It'll be "the proceeds of growth" or "cutting red tape and bureaucracy". There are many seedlings in the Magic Money Tree garden
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Another brilliant thing about Mirror Field - this art installation at Babi Yar - when the sun shines it reflects off the stainless steel so the whole thing becomes physically painful. You burn
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Nigelb said:

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
    I'd take either for him.
    Electrocution.

    The shark hasn't done anything to deserve the alternative.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Nigelb said:

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
    I'd take either for him.
    The World Wildlife Fund would be up in arms, it would probably kill the shark. It would be like you or I eating one of those venomous toads.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Nigelb said:

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
    I'd take either for him.
    The World Wildlife Fund would be up in arms, it would probably kill the shark. It would be like you or I eating one of those venomous toads.
    Unkind, sir.

    To venomous toads.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    What policies can you come up with that would pass the you’ve had 14 years WTF haven’t you already done that test?
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    Pretty sure those two things are related.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Sky saying you have to go to page 112 for the Lib Dems to refer to Europe and their hope to rejoin the single market
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    What policies can you come up with that would pass the you’ve had 14 years WTF haven’t you already done that test?
    The point is theyve had 14 years. They have no out.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 10
    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    When are the first polls coming that take D Day Gate more fully into account in the fieldwork range?

    At most, we’ve had about a day of it in the fieldwork for the most recent polls.

    Is there a big calendar anywhere that shows “Here is when the next big poll is coming out” ?

    I'm not aware of any calendar, but last Monday we had Redfield & Wilton, JLP, More in Common, and Deltapoll.

    Possibly a similar crop today?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    His critics in satire are feasting more than the shark would upon him.

    https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-politics/trump-finally-weighs-in-on-controversial-shark-vs-electrocution-debate/
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Understand the Tory manifesto, set to be published tomorrow, will be a stonking 76 pages long #GE2024

    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1800113734595277189?s=61

    Is that longer than the 1983 Labour effort?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    ToryJim said:

    Understand the Tory manifesto, set to be published tomorrow, will be a stonking 76 pages long #GE2024

    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1800113734595277189?s=61

    Is that longer than the 1983 Labour effort?

    Theyre challenging the record for the longest suicide note in history
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    But the LibDems have got Paddleboard Man!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    Blair and Brown fair enough. Prescott (hooligan) Kinnock (twice loser) Cook (weird) Livingston (weird and bonkers) and Beckett (later to vote for Corbyn by accident). So yeah, all the talents.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    But the LibDems have got Paddleboard Man!
    True! It's over
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    "Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan.
    Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.

    Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ?
    Cut your 4% from NHS England ?

    Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    ToryJim said:

    Understand the Tory manifesto, set to be published tomorrow, will be a stonking 76 pages long #GE2024

    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1800113734595277189?s=61

    Is that longer than the 1983 Labour effort?

    Theyre challenging the record for the longest suicide note in history
    Can it be a suicide note when you're already all but dead?

    Is there such a thing as a euthenasia note?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    Understand the Tory manifesto, set to be published tomorrow, will be a stonking 76 pages long #GE2024

    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1800113734595277189?s=61

    Is that longer than the 1983 Labour effort?

    Theyre challenging the record for the longest suicide note in history
    Can it be a suicide note when you're already all but dead?

    Is there such a thing as a euthenasia note?
    Tbh paying for the Tory Campaign to visit Dignitas would be a kindness at this stage.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    Blair and Brown fair enough. Prescott (hooligan) Kinnock (twice loser) Cook (weird) Livingston (weird and bonkers) and Beckett (later to vote for Corbyn by accident). So yeah, all the talents.
    And every one of them worth 5 Starmers or a dozen Reeves
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ToryJim said:
    I'm glad he's still chipper after DDay.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    ToryJim said:
    The "energised" aspect (together with him bouncing up and down so much as he says it) harks back to their attempt last month to push a 'Sleepy Keith' narrative.

    Not sure it's going to work for him quite so well this time, on the morning after he returns to the campaign after having taken two days in a row off.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Listening to Sunaks new mea culpa over DDay I think its probably time for the press to move on now. He's offered a proper apology and admitted by words what a dreadful decision it was so its up to voters whether to accept or reject that. But we go to the polls in 3 and a half weeks and the future of the country really isn't about that one afternoon in Normandy.
    They've got a job to do covering the election, I think they've probably exhausted anything to be gleaned from this part of it.

    Definitely time to move on to the next gaffe.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Phil Burton-Cartledge, leftie blogger has compiled a list of the left independents standing in this election. Might be a good resource for people looking at potential left-wing vote splitting.

    https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-far-left-and-2024-general-election.html
    Aberdeen South - Sophie Molly
    Banbury - Cassie Bellingham
    Bethnal Green and Stepney - Ajmal Masroor
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Ellie Merton
    Birmingham Edgbaston - Ammar Waraich
    Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Mohammad Hafeez
    Birmingham Ladywood - Akhmed Yakoob
    Birmingham Selly Oak - Kamel Hawwash
    Brentford and Isleworth - Zebunisa Rao
    Bristol East - Wael Arafat
    Cardiff West - John Urquhart
    Central Devon - Arthur Price
    Chingford and Woodford Green - Faiza Shaheen
    Dewsbury West - Tanisha Bramwell
    Dudley - Shakeela Bibi
    East Ham - Tahir Mirza
    Eltham and Chislehurst - John Courtneidge
    Enfield North - Ertan Karpazli
    Feltham and Heston - Damian Read
    Frome and East Somerset - Gareth Heathcote
    Grantham and Bourne - Charmaine Morgan
    Harrow West - Pamela Fitzpatrick
    Heywood and Middleton North - Chris Furlong
    Holborn St Pancras - Andrew Feinstein
    Hove and Portslade - Tanushka Marah
    Ilford North - Leanne Mohamad
    Ilford South - Syed Siddiqi
    Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn
    Kensington and Bayswater - Emma Dent Coad
    Kingston and Surbiton - Yvonne Tracey
    Leicester East - Claudia Webbe
    Leicester South - Shockat Adam
    Leyton and Wanstead - Shanell Johnson
    Liverpool Garston - Sam Gorst
    Liverpool Wavertree - Anne San
    Mid Cheshire - Helen Clawson
    Monmouthshire - Owen Lewis
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Yvonne Ridley
    Newport East - Pippa Bartolotti
    Oxford East - Jabu Nala-Hartley
    Preston - Michael Lavalette
    Reading West and Mod Berkshire - Adrian Abbs
    Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Maxine Bowler
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Mike Baldock
    South Dorset - Giovanna Lewis
    Southgate and Wood Green - Karl Vidol
    Southport - Sean Halsall
    Stockport - Asley Walker
    Stockton West - Monty Brack
    Stoke-on-Trent Central - Andy Polshaw
    Stratford and Bow - Fiona Lali
    Stratford and Bow - Steve Headley
    Tottenham - Nandita Lal
    Tunbridge Wells - Hassan Kassem
    Walsall and Bloxwich - Aftab Nawaz
    Wells and Mendip Hills - Abi McGuire
    West Suffolk - Katie Parker
    West Ham and Beckton - Sophia Naqvi
    Wigan - Jan Cunliffe
    Windsor - David Buckley
    Wycombe - Ajaz Rehman
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    EU elections, a thesis: The far-right mostly surged in countries where the far-right has never ruled. In countries that have already been damaged by populism - Poland, Hungary, Greece - the center right did better. (UK fits this story too, except center-left benefits)...
    https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1800104664035422624

    We'll see.
    A dysfunctional cohabitation cuts both ways, of course.
    Or, as a neat infographic,



    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1799900292315553914
    That infographic is communist propaganda. The point is that 'centrists' don't solve any problems but just lead to fascism and the solution is to get rid of capitalism.
    "Communist propaganda". F4s in the skies, everybody in tanktops and tashes, Angel Delight and the Generation Game, nylon suits and dresses, chips and beans for tea, Kenneth Kendall and Richard Baker, orange Cortinas, oh jumpers for goalposts...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    Ok, I know it's ultimately an exercise in politcal irrelevancy, but which of the rich smörgåsbord of talent on the Holyrood benches is next SCon leader? I'm going for Sandesh 'does my hair look good' Gulhane, with a lol saver on Annie Wells.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    Blair and Brown fair enough. Prescott (hooligan) Kinnock (twice loser) Cook (weird) Livingston (weird and bonkers) and Beckett (later to vote for Corbyn by accident). So yeah, all the talents.
    And there's more than a touch of rear view mirror in assessing the array of 'talent'.
    Labour could surprise on the upside (or downside) once in government.
    The Tories have no upside surprises left in them.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/1800108606811185396?s=46

    Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today

    Conservative majority 21,127

    It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list

    Seems like a more likely defence than his visit to Bishop Auckland at the weekend.

    Perhaps a bit of recalibration has been performed over Sunday lunch?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    edited June 10
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    "Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan.
    Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.

    Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ?
    Cut your 4% from NHS England ?

    Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
    Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.

    You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.

    Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited June 10
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old

    History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling

    Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
    Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on

    That’s incredible
    For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
    Got Eamon Duffy's history of the village. Must find it and reread it now you've reminded me.

    As Duffy himself says, it is a "pendant" to Stripping of the Altars, which is an amazing work of scholarship but gets a bit polemical in trying to wrest the narrative of the Traditionalists like AJ Dickens. The reality is quite nuanced. In England, rural upland areas seemed to be the most Catholic, while Londoners were actually getting ahead of themselves in tearing down crucifixes and altars etc before governmental injunction required it - in fact a few parishes were required to put them back up. Duffy isn't good on geographical nuance IMHO.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    ToryJim said:
    Oh he's back is he? Well I hope he had a nice few days off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
    I'd take either for him.
    Electrocution.

    The shark hasn't done anything to deserve the alternative.
    And think of the fat content.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    But the LibDems have got Paddleboard Man!
    And the Lib Dems have just had an excellent manifesto launch. You are so obsessed with Labour and Conservatives, you seem to have missed that.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    If your argument is that the general quality of our political class has been in freefall since 1997 (and even well before then), you'll catch no disagreement from me.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,137
    edited June 10

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    Actually four.

    May was not much better. Cameron I found to be complacent, insulated and diastrously ideologically blinkered in areas like welfare, but he was reasonably competent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    "Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan.
    Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.

    Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ?
    Cut your 4% from NHS England ?

    Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
    Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.

    You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.

    Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.

    Thank you for illustrating my point.
    The OBR's annual spend is about £5m.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Ok, I know it's ultimately an exercise in politcal irrelevancy, but which of the rich smörgåsbord of talent on the Holyrood benches is next SCon leader? I'm going for Sandesh 'does my hair look good' Gulhane, with a lol saver on Annie Wells.

    Murdo
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Sean_F said:

    What does far right mean these days? Do RN or Brothers of Italy count, given how mainstream they now are?

    I note the AfD are trying to clean up their act by sacking one of their more attention attarcting leaders. This may lead to them sitting with LePen again in Brussels. With Scholz now under pressure to call fresh elections they are trying to grab respectability.
    The AfD sacked Krah a couple of weeks ago. Except they couldn't! He was Number 1 on the AfD national list and it was too late to take him off the list. Portillo Moments are not possible in German politics.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405

    ToryJim said:

    Understand the Tory manifesto, set to be published tomorrow, will be a stonking 76 pages long #GE2024

    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1800113734595277189?s=61

    Is that longer than the 1983 Labour effort?

    Theyre challenging the record for the longest suicide note in history
    Can it be a suicide note when you're already all but dead?

    Is there such a thing as a euthenasia note?
    Maybe they'll do the launch from Zurich
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question of the day from Trump: would you rather be electrocuted or eaten by a shark?

    https://x.com/acyn/status/1799895088354804183

    I know he's a multiple convicted felon, but either of those punishments seem slightly more draconian than warranted.
    I'd take either for him.
    Electrocution.

    The shark hasn't done anything to deserve the alternative.
    And think of the fat content.
    He's lost weight, to the extent he actually looks pretty ill, but there's still all the blubbering about how it's unfair.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ClippP said:

    Muesli said:

    Heathener said:

    OT it’s now June 10th and the most recent opinion polls had fieldwork from 6-8th and 5th-7th.

    We need some fresh data please. They should now be post Faragasm and D-Day gate and we may have a clearer picture of how this election is heading.

    My sense is that nothing much from here will change, barring anything extraordinary. People begin voting next week ...

    Note of caution Heathener: in 1997 the Labour lead halved between this point and election day.
    In 1997, Labour were up against John Major, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind (and John Selwyn Gummer and Peter Lilley tbf).

    This time around, they're up against *checks notes* Rishi Sunak (at the time of writing), Richard Holden, Michael Green and Kemi Badenoch.
    Labour had Prezza, Blair, Brown, Kinnock, Beckett, Cook, Livingstone and any other number of big beasts from the Wilson and Callaghan years still on the scene. Now they have *checks notes* a boring guy and that woman with shiny hair

    The paucity of talent runs rife throughout
    But the LibDems have got Paddleboard Man!
    And the Lib Dems have just had an excellent manifesto launch. You are so obsessed with Labour and Conservatives, you seem to have missed that.
    What on earth is 'an excellent manifesto launch'?
    It's a manifesto launch, they are all the same, the voters will later give their verdict
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Reform candidate with some ‘interesting’ views

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    "Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan.
    Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.

    Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ?
    Cut your 4% from NHS England ?

    Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
    Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.

    You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.

    Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.

    It's hard to argue we're strapped for cash while we still have the Arts Council.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    If things go as currently anticipated it will be interesting to see how this affects the stability of all political parties going forward. The Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having someone clearly unsuited to the role in the position of leader. Up to now, even if this was not optimal, one would expect swing back and old time loyalties to reduce that cost to tolerable levels. In the more febrile present it appears that that is not the case.

    I think this will make MPs, and not just Tory MPs, much more anxious about their leadership in future. If Starmer is not cutting the mustard in 2-3 years time there will be 200-300 Labour MPs worried about their future. The consequences of the complacency and arrogance of this episode will burn deep in their souls.

    Technically I think the Tories are about to pay a terrible price for having three people unsuited to the role as leader, one after another.
    The leaders dont help, but lack of policies is the bigger problem.
    "Cutting quangos" isn't a policy; it's a slogan.
    Like the earlier 'bonfire of the quangos', it's meaningless in financial or policy terms.

    Eg, would you scrap the rest of HS2 ?
    Cut your 4% from NHS England ?

    Or a you just talking about a few million pounds from scrapping some of the obscure ones few would miss ?
    Yes, you routinely come up with this drivel by chosing the most contoversial things to cut. Quangos are off balance sheet government. They employ something like 700,000 people and cost anywhere from £40 -80 billion depending on whose numbers you chose to believe. There are over 750 of them.

    You say you couldnt find savings in that. You shouldnt be put in charge of a budget. Like any cost savings you start with a target, protect the essentials and eliminate nice to dos and not needed. Then you end up with a potential list.

    Ive already said as an example I'd close the OBR we lived without it prior to Osborne. Merge its with the BoE or the Treasury for forecasts and take the headcount savings. Then look at the other 750. It may well be you find more savings than you wanted, so park a budget and put some money back where its needed. I'd go for infrastructure.

    There are going to be a hell of a lot more in 5 years time if Labour implement their promised policies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,353
    DougSeal said:

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    I’m looking at a decrepit babushka crossing the road as I near the ravine of death. Incredible to think that it’s just about possible she personally saw Yaroslav the Wise found the city, if she is about 980 years old and she’s definitely old

    History is so much closer than we think. Its kinda humbling

    Thomas Hardy, who was taken to see a public execution when fairly young, lived into the lifetime of HM QEII as well as people I know still living.
    Yes that’s impressive but not as impressive as this old lady. She could actually have seen Yaroslav march over the Dnieper and build the Church of Tithes, on the old pagan shrines of Podil - IF she is nearly 1000 years old. And as I say she’s definitely knocking on

    That’s incredible
    For those of a historical bent, Christopher Trychay was Vicar of Morebath in Devon from 1520 to 1574 and his annotated parish accounts are a diary of the tumultuous conversion of England from what was (largely - especially in Devon) an extremely devout Catholic nation through radical Protestantism to the uneasy compromise of the Elizabethan settlement. Morebath was a small Catholic village, forced to abandon its allegiance to the Pope, forced to regain it, and then told to lose it again, in the meantime sending villagers don to Exeter to to join the Prayer Book Rebellion. Keeping his head, let alone his job, over those 54 years was quite an achievment.
    Got Eamon Duffy's history of the village. Must find it and reread it now you've reminded me.

    As Duffy himself says, it is a "pendant" to Stripping of the Altars, which is an amazing work of scholarship but gets a bit polemical in trying to wrest the narrative of the Traditionalists like AJ Dickens. The reality is quite nuanced. In England, rural upland areas seemed to be the most Catholic, while Londoners were actually getting ahead of themselves in tearing down crucifixes and altars etc before governmental injunction required it - in fact a few parishes were required to put them back up. Duffy isn't good on geographical nuance IMHO.
    I do find it desperately sad to wander round places like Glastonbury Abbey, or the London Charterhouse, and contemplate what was lost - as well as the courage of people who were martyred in a lost cause.
This discussion has been closed.