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The Tory Party’s long term problems – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
The Tory Party’s long term problems – politicalbetting.com

I have done countless pool clips and how they always work is that we ask one or two questions on the agreed topic and then ask different quesitons for the rest of the interview and USUALLY politicians answer, or least engage with the question slightly. This was off the charts.

Read the full story here

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    edited June 10
    First?

    But the real question in this election is who comes second.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Second like the Lib Dems
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    DavidL said:

    First?

    But the real question in this election is who comes second.

    My work here is done. Time to go and indulge my hobby of prosecution.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,457
    Thank-you for the header.

    Gp forth, @DavidL .
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    He's a very poor advert for bearded Tories. And, it appears, not well liked in his own pack.
    Also amusing to see Jon Craig has taken lessons from Adam Boulton in being Sky's chief irritable late middle aged man.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    But the real question in this election is who comes second.

    My work here is done. Time to go and indulge my hobby of prosecution.
    Perhaps this is a quotation from Lord Starmer KG, OM, CH in 2039?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    On topic, while it’s a very Westminster Bubble story, I daresay it will cut through locally and perhaps more importantly pisses off journalists as a breach of the unspoken agreements between hacks and pols (n.b. not usually a good idea in a general election).
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    edited June 10
    MattW said:

    Thank-you for the header.

    Gp forth, @DavidL .

    David was unable to go forth[sic] as you took fourth place :tongue:

    ETA: I was so busy making a lame joke about the non-typo that I missed the actual typo :disappointed:
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    Ghedebrav said:

    On topic, while it’s a very Westminster Bubble story, I daresay it will cut through locally and perhaps more importantly pisses off journalists as a breach of the unspoken agreements between hacks and pols (n.b. not usually a good idea in a general election).

    I think there's every chance he's toast in Baz and Ricky
    Zero wider implications though, just another goofball nobody
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    Ghedebrav said:

    On topic, while it’s a very Westminster Bubble story, I daresay it will cut through locally and perhaps more importantly pisses off journalists as a breach of the unspoken agreements between hacks and pols (n.b. not usually a good idea in a general election).

    The unspoken agreement, norms, bargain stuff between politicians and media is interesting.

    It makes you wonder if this clip would have been circulated if there were a vaguely plausible chance of survival for the Tory government, No 10 and party bosses.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Ghedebrav said:

    On topic, while it’s a very Westminster Bubble story, I daresay it will cut through locally and perhaps more importantly pisses off journalists as a breach of the unspoken agreements between hacks and pols (n.b. not usually a good idea in a general election).

    I think there's every chance he's toast in Baz and Ricky
    Zero wider implications though, just another goofball nobody
    Will certainly be an amusing paragraph and footnote in the eventual book of this travesty election.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    For the Tories, Dick Holden is the new Navel Gazin'.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    He did get to go and be the UKs last imperial overlord as a reward. Maybe Dicky can go and administer British Antarctic territory from Rothera base
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    It’s similar in a way, to yielding the government to the Liberals, in 1905, believing they would mess it up.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    Worse, an error

    Eg Le Pen’s party activists are, apparently, delighted by the opportunity of this new election. That suggests macron has panicked and made a major mistake

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/were-everywhere-now-national-rally-toast-eu-elections-success
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    Yes, if the Tories are to recover they are going to have to get some new talent in their ranks. I could probably count on one hand the number of politicians on the Tory side I generally think are OK and could be future talent.

    Opposition does create a recruiting ground for that talent but of course some of it depends on what direction the Tories take from here and what they are reduced to in the next parliament.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    He did get to go and be the UKs last imperial overlord as a reward. Maybe Dicky can go and administer British Antarctic territory from Rothera base
    Not quite last: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Pitcairn
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Carnyx said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    He did get to go and be the UKs last imperial overlord as a reward. Maybe Dicky can go and administer British Antarctic territory from Rothera base
    Not quite last: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Pitcairn
    I met someone in Moldova - indeed a Moldovan - who has BEEN to Pitcairn. I was duly impressed
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319
    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Amusing that Patten's performance in Bath was worse than the Tories did nationally.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    We have eft the EU, we are independent and sovereign now. The EU is of no consequence to Blighty. Remain lost,suck it up!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    Carnyx said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    He did get to go and be the UKs last imperial overlord as a reward. Maybe Dicky can go and administer British Antarctic territory from Rothera base
    Not quite last: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Pitcairn
    Indeed, I meant on a major basis of course. Pitcairn just gets tagged on as an extra cuff button to the High Commissioner in NZ's gig
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    tlg86 said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Amusing that Patten's performance in Bath was worse than the Tories did nationally.
    Patten is one of the architects of Brexit. Whenever it looked like the Tories might offer a referendum - on Maastricht etc - he was there to scupper the idea, thus stoking the fires of euroscepticism so much we actually voted to Leave completely, in the end. He is a fool. A clever, eloquent fool
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    If he is the sort of Tory MP that will make up the parliamentary party after the election it is why the Tories are likely to have a long spell in opposition, the quality of candidates and MPs is at an all time low.

    Dubious argument.

    Labour have found room for Cat Smith, Lloyd Russell Moyle (until a fortnight ago) Sultana, Long Bailey and Burgon, yet they seem to be about to return to government.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,424
    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    If that's the case they're going to die.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,457

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    David Cameron went wrong with candidate selection
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    We have eft the EU, we are independent and sovereign now. The EU is of no consequence to Blighty. Remain lost,suck it up!
    This riff of yours is neither amusing nor insightful, and has more than a dash of cringe. Desist
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    tlg86 said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Amusing that Patten's performance in Bath was worse than the Tories did nationally.
    Not really unexpected though. It was the Lib Dems' top target, pretty close to Paddy Ashdown's seat. Meanwhile, Patten himself was focused on and closely involved in the national campaign.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    Or, merge with them. That could work, too
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951

    Carnyx said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    He did get to go and be the UKs last imperial overlord as a reward. Maybe Dicky can go and administer British Antarctic territory from Rothera base
    Not quite last: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Pitcairn
    Indeed, I meant on a major basis of course. Pitcairn just gets tagged on as an extra cuff button to the High Commissioner in NZ's gig
    Quite so. This chap gets to do the work without the glory. Poor devil, but someone has to do it.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/people/alasdair-hamilton
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    I wonder if a future government might think about shortening the mandated campaign period to 4 weeks. This election still has over 3 weeks to go, we still don’t have manifestos. Whilst it is amusing seeing the Tories sink lower and lower as each day goes by, it feels too long.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096
    edited June 10
    The challenge for centre right parties here and in the EU, I think, is how to engage with the populist right. They need the votes that otherwise go to populist parties without actually becoming one themselves, which would destroy them. Proto fascists go for the real thing rather than moderated versions, while the good guys, who are fortunately still the big majority, want nothing to do with any of it.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 10
    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    It does come across, in this social media age, as if there’s almost no-one with a clean past who wants the job of an MP.

    The parties, all of them, also give the impression of not really caring too much about the vetting of candidates beyond their political views.

    It would cost roughly the same as the deposit, to bring in outsiders for a basic background check and social media history report on your candidates, and you’d only need to do it for newcomers. With half the PMs in Parliament likely to change at this election, there’s likely to be a fair few unlikely winners in there, and possibly another Jared O’Mara or two among them.

    At least we can now recall the most egregious offenders.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,457
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    maaarsh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    If that's the case they're going to die.
    Better death than a zombie like existence with an Ophiocordyceps unilateralis Faragistic infection .

    The lesson from France is that you need a strong centre right to defeat the right. The left cannot hold power forever.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    Or, merge with them. That could work, too
    Ophiocordyceps unilateralis
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    MattW said:

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
    A confused sort of right-libertarian. A man should have the freedom to shoot another man for wearing the wrong sort of badge on their clothes (the Cub Scouts are running scared).
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    David Cameron went wrong with candidate selection
    I think so, though wonder if this is symptomatic of politics nowadays and whether we’ll find Labour have quite a few problems with their MPs in the next parliament.

    For many MPs the job used to be a bit of a calling. I get the impression for many of them now it’s a stepping stone to government and if they’re not getting it, they’ll get out. And that they don’t find the day-to-day role particularly glamorous.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,830

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Patten was still on his way up in 1992. He reached the pinnacle of achievement as Chancellor of the University of Oxford. There have only been four in the last 91 years. PMs are a dime a dozen.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,457
    edited June 10
    Ghedebrav said:

    MattW said:

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
    A confused sort of right-libertarian. A man should have the freedom to shoot another man for wearing the wrong sort of badge on their clothes (the Cub Scouts are running scared).
    I don't know - are they like a bearded version of the bald-headed aspiring racist thugs? Are they a criminal network in the UK? Misogynist? In some places the women are a powerless adornment.

    Do we have any Hells Angels on PB?

    Here when they put on a funeral ride it gets hundreds of Harleys.

    And there's plenty of "women as willingly-arse-waving bits of stuff" in the imagery - almost like a deliberately dark version of the nose art from WW2 Bomber Aircraft.

    That can be mainly tongue in cheek. Or it can have a system of implicit values similar to those being normalised by painting of women as enjoying-being-casually-brutalised in online pornography aimed at the younger generations.

    https://www.facebook.com/syl81ashfield/?locale=en_GB
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,041
    edited June 10
    I think Holden may lose. Part of his constituency includes Basildon which went Labour in 1997 and part is Billericay, which is the posher end of Basildon district but where Theresa Gormon only narrowly held on in 1997. Reform are also standing.

    Seems unlikely on current polls the new intake of Tory MPs will be that big anyway, certainly much smaller than 2019 where vast numbers of new redwall MPs were elected. Most state school and non Oxbridge but who now unfortunately look likely to lose their seats.

    Of the still relatively safe Tory seats, candidates picked are largely SPADs or ex MPs with a few councillors or business figures close to Rishi added in too. Most of them Sunak loyalists chosen from CCHQ shortlists. So the quality probably won't be any worse than before but the new parliamentary party is likely ironically to be more centrist than the old parliamentary party. Yes some high profile centrists like Hunt, Chalk and Mordaunt likely lose their seats but so too most likely do some high profile rightwingers like IDS, Clarke and Rees Mogg
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    edited June 10
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    We have eft the EU, we are independent and sovereign now. The EU is of no consequence to Blighty. Remain lost,suck it up!
    This riff of yours is neither amusing nor insightful, and has more than a dash of cringe. Desist
    A post mortem on any lurch to the right in Europe is of interest as Europeans in a continental sense rather than Europeans in an EU sense. It is important, not least for lessons to be learned. It is very worrying, and you are probably correct if you were to say the common denominator is at least the perception of uncontrolled immigration to Europe from Africa and the Middle East.

    However my tiresome tirade harks back to the post Brexit hubris demonstrated by people like yourself. One or two on here ( I am not suggesting you, but wear the cap if it fits) seem to have this masturbatory fantasy that Brexit will be a proven success if European nations are run by 27 Orban lookey-likeys.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    edited June 10

    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    David Cameron went wrong with candidate selection
    Though Cameron needed to do something. The unpopularity of the Conservatives in the decade or so from 1992 had reduced the member to activist to candidate pipeline a lot. But yes. You look at the A List and its outcomes and they're not great.

    Given how unpopular the Conservatives are now with anyone of working age, that's going to be a huge problem going forward.

    As for Holden,

    Yes, his name is Dickie
    But he's not from Billericay
    He's not doing... Very well.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    Yes, if the Tories are to recover they are going to have to get some new talent in their ranks. I could probably count on one hand the number of politicians on the Tory side I generally think are OK and could be future talent.

    Opposition does create a recruiting ground for that talent but of course some of it depends on what direction the Tories take from here and what they are reduced to in the next parliament.

    For the far sighted this is the moment for centrists with political ambitions aged perhaps 16-30 to join the Tory party and quietly start up the slippery pole while checking every social media account from the age of about 8 onwards. Labour will be pretty competitive for centrist newbies at the moment.

    History suggests probabilities, not certainties, but the chances are that at the next change of government the new name label will say 'Conservative'.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    edited June 10
    Parallel universe, LoO Ed Davey brokers his remaining conservative coalition partners to join the opposition, building a new orange book Coalition party. They marginalise the Faragists and ultimately win power from Labour in late 2030s
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    MattW said:

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
    A confused sort of right-libertarian. A man should have the freedom to shoot another man for wearing the wrong sort of badge on their clothes (the Cub Scouts are running scared).
    I don't know - are they like a bearded version of the bald-headed aspiring racist thugs? Are they a criminal network in the UK? Misogynist - in some places the women are a powerless adornment.

    Do we have any Hells Angels on PB?

    Here when they put on a funeral ride it gets hundreds of Harleys.

    And there's plenty of "women as arse-waving bits of stuff" in the imagery - almost like a deliberately dark version of the nose art from WW2 Bomber Aircraft.

    https://www.facebook.com/syl81ashfield/?locale=en_GB
    I think ideology and criminality can vary quite wildly from chapter to chapter and territory to territory, from legit serious OC to living off the rep and getting in the odd drunken scrap.

    It certainly used to be openly racist, and I imagine still has it in its DNA, but this will equally vary quite a bit. Misogyny is pretty much a given, but there again I daresay there are exceptions.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,457
    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    MattW said:

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
    A confused sort of right-libertarian. A man should have the freedom to shoot another man for wearing the wrong sort of badge on their clothes (the Cub Scouts are running scared).
    I don't know - are they like a bearded version of the bald-headed aspiring racist thugs? Are they a criminal network in the UK? Misogynist? In some places the women are a powerless adornment.

    Do we have any Hells Angels on PB?

    Here when they put on a funeral ride it gets hundreds of Harleys.

    And there's plenty of "women as willingly-arse-waving bits of stuff" in the imagery - almost like a deliberately dark version of the nose art from WW2 Bomber Aircraft.

    That can be mainly tongue in cheek. Or it can have a system of implicit values similar to those being normalised by painting of women as enjoying-being-casually-brutalised in online pornography aimed at the younger generations.

    https://www.facebook.com/syl81ashfield/?locale=en_GB
    Ran out of edting time. AFAICS they also do some significant charity stuff.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365
    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    You might be disappointed to learn that the AIPD (Ausserirdische Invasoren Partei Deutschlands - slogan "Freiheit durch Unterwerfung") didn't win any seats in Germany.

    Fans of file formats will be pleased that the PdF apparently won a seat.

    Pan-European party Volt won 3 seats in Germany, a 200% increase - by far the biggest percent increase of any party which also won seats in 2019, which I *think* almost proves that they will inevitably win a majority before long.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    edited June 10
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    MattW said:

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
    A confused sort of right-libertarian. A man should have the freedom to shoot another man for wearing the wrong sort of badge on their clothes (the Cub Scouts are running scared).
    I don't know - are they like a bearded version of the bald-headed aspiring racist thugs? Are they a criminal network in the UK? Misogynist? In some places the women are a powerless adornment.

    Do we have any Hells Angels on PB?

    Here when they put on a funeral ride it gets hundreds of Harleys.

    And there's plenty of "women as willingly-arse-waving bits of stuff" in the imagery - almost like a deliberately dark version of the nose art from WW2 Bomber Aircraft.

    That can be mainly tongue in cheek. Or it can have a system of implicit values similar to those being normalised by painting of women as enjoying-being-casually-brutalised in online pornography aimed at the younger generations.

    https://www.facebook.com/syl81ashfield/?locale=en_GB
    Ran out of edting time. AFAICS they also do some significant charity stuff.
    As indeed do many rogues and villains.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,041
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    Would it? He’s under no obligation to call a vote. He could be collegiate and offer to work with RN

    I see three outcomes

    1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
    2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
    3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027

    As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
    Whether RN win a majority and Le Pen wins the presidency ironically now depends on where centre right Les Republicain voters vote in the second round in France's two round elections.

    In 2022 most Les Republicain voters voted for Macron and his liberal centrist party in round two against Le Pen and her party on the far right and Melenchon and his block on the socialist left.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    HYUFD said:

    I think Holden may lose. Part of his constituency includes Basildon which went Labour in 1997 and part is Billericay, which is the posher end of Basildon district but where Theresa Gormon only narrowly held on in 1997. Reform are also standing.

    Seems unlikely on current polls the new intake of Tory MPs will be that big anyway, certainly much smaller than 2019 where vast numbers of new redwall MPs were elected. Most state school and non Oxbridge but who now unfortunately look likely to lose their seats.

    Of the still relatively safe Tory seats, candidates picked are largely SPADs or ex MPs with a few councillors or business figures close to Rishi added in too. Most of them Sunak loyalists chosen from CCHQ shortlists. So the quality probably won't be any worse than before but the new parliamentary party is likely ironically to be more centrist than the old parliamentary party. Yes some high profile centrists like Hunt, Chalk and Mordaunt likely lose their seats but so too most likely do some high profile rightwingers like IDS, Clarke and Rees Mogg

    The only point I disagree on there is I think the Admiral will hold on in Portsmouth. I suspect the Tory vote there will be much more likely to turn out and see her home to take up the reins in the new Parliament.
    I think she holds by low thousands (2 to 3)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    It’s a weird decision. He’s clearly not doing it for himself, as he’s term limited, so is he trying to get a better-looking Parliament that can help his legislative programme before he hands over to someone else, but at the risk of ending up with Le Pen’s party increasing their representation and spending the next two years being nothing but obstructive towards anything remotely centrist?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,041

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Patten was still on his way up in 1992. He reached the pinnacle of achievement as Chancellor of the University of Oxford. There have only been four in the last 91 years. PMs are a dime a dozen.
    Chancellor of Oxford also far more important than last Governor of Hong Kong too I suppose
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 383
    In the countries that actually have experience with populists in charge the right was defeated

    How about the old expresserati favourite Orban: "Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party is on track to receive its worst ever result in a European Parliament election, after early results showed a new challenger took nearly 30 percent of the vote Sunday."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-hungary-viktor-orban-fidesz-party-peter-magyar-tisza-party/

    Another expresserati favourite Geert Wilders...

    "Geert Wilders overtaken by centre left in EU elections"

    https://www.ft.com/content/cc63230d-12b4-4826-ac64-7624e5ba09f8

    The populist right keeps falling flat on its nose because it promises the sky..... this, to me, encapsulates the problem with populism... it refuses to be realistic and pragmatic.... man, it would be way more dangerous if it was - but it isn't. And if it was it would cease to be populist. That is what is going on in the UK too. The ukippification of the tory party (which failed and has now become a retreat to reform) has revealed abysmal governance and a focus on symbolic policies to signal ideology rather than improving people's lives.....

    Just like britain probably needed its brexit experience to get past its exceptionalism.... I suspect france is probably headed that way too.... but the populists usually burn up on their encounter with governance.... so hopefully it wont last.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686

    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    David Cameron went wrong with candidate selection
    Though Cameron needed to do something. The unpopularity of the Conservatives in the decade or so from 1992 had reduced the member to activist to candidate pipeline a lot. But yes. You look at the A List and its outcomes and they're not great.

    Given how unpopular the Conservatives are now with anyone of working age, that's going to be a huge problem going forward.

    As for Holden,

    Yes, his name is Dickie
    But he's not from Billericay
    He's not doing... Very well.
    Reasons to be cheerful, 1, 2, 3..
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    HYUFD said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Patten was still on his way up in 1992. He reached the pinnacle of achievement as Chancellor of the University of Oxford. There have only been four in the last 91 years. PMs are a dime a dozen.
    Chancellor of Oxford also far more important than last Governor of Hong Kong too I suppose
    As a position, yes, but historically speaking Patten was on the ground to oversee the final sunset of Empire (by which I mean major colonial holdings)
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    Two theories. One we've heard widely by now is that he wants the 28-year old Bardella to have to govern for a few years. The other is that he thinks the leadership of the socialist party will definitively break away from J-L Mélenchon and rejoin the pro-EU, secular, law and order mainstream. At least it would put together an alliance for the next presidential election.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    HYUFD said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Patten was still on his way up in 1992. He reached the pinnacle of achievement as Chancellor of the University of Oxford. There have only been four in the last 91 years. PMs are a dime a dozen.
    Chancellor of Oxford also far more important than last Governor of Hong Kong too I suppose
    I suspect, very much so on PB. Second only in kudos to Chancellor of Cambridge. Forget even POTUS or UKPM,. So last Governor of Hong Kong doesn't even come close.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,041
    FF43 said:

    The challenge for centre right parties here and in the EU, I think, is how to engage with the populist right. They need the votes that otherwise go to populist parties without actually becoming one themselves, which would destroy them. Proto fascists go for the real thing rather than moderated versions, while the good guys, who are fortunately still the big majority, want nothing to do with any of it.

    Do they? On current results the centre right are still ahead of the centre left in the EU parliament elections even despite the rise in the far right and nationalist right.

    Remember many far right voters will be working class whites who in the past might have voted Labour, Socialist or Social Democrat but would never vote centre right

    Similar to the white working class former Democrats in the US rustbelt who voted for Trump
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    It’s a weird decision. He’s clearly not doing it for himself, as he’s term limited, so is he trying to get a better-looking Parliament that can help his legislative programme before he hands over to someone else, but at the risk of ending up with Le Pen’s party increasing their representation and spending the next two years being nothing but obstructive towards anything remotely centrist?
    Most of the French analysis I’ve heard this morning is that it’s a gamble that Le Pen’s lot get to run parliament for a few years ahead of the next presidential election. Difficult times with economics, Ukraine, potential rumbunctious EU politics.

    The idea is that he pulls back the curtain on them, points out the lack of clothes on the emperor as governing isn’t easy, whinging is, and governing in difficult times is, as we’ve seen in the UK very har and harder still if your party has lots of nuts.

    So he’s going for a few years of shit to avoid long term super-shit.

    Well that’s the theory.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    edited June 10
    65 posts in on the historic Fall and (probable) Collapse of the Conservative Party and so far not a mention of the biggest reason of all. BREXIT!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    Roger said:

    65 post in on the historic Fall and (probable) Collapse of the Conservative Party and so far not a mention of the biggest reason of all. BREXIT!

    Nah, we got out before the march of the jack boots. Good luck with that over there.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686
    edited June 10
    MattW said:

    FPT, I thought a week ago that there was a small chance Suella Braverman might outright defect to Reform so that she could be Farage’s ‘no.2’ if a realignment takes place…it seems like her Times endorsement of Farage is the closest thing you can do whilst still holding the Tory whip.

    Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.

    But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.

    That's presumably plan B for any who did not defect *before* the election.

    It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.

    I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.

    (Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.

    The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."

    Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
    A bit fashy insofar as they have politics.
    I'm irrationally proud that back in the 60s a Glasgow biker gang, the Blue Angels, ran the Hell's Angels out of town, Glasgow being HA free to this day. An aged founder member lives up the road from me, still has a couple of Harley's outside his tenement flat. No one lays a finger on them needless to say.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    It’s a weird decision. He’s clearly not doing it for himself, as he’s term limited, so is he trying to get a better-looking Parliament that can help his legislative programme before he hands over to someone else, but at the risk of ending up with Le Pen’s party increasing their representation and spending the next two years being nothing but obstructive towards anything remotely centrist?
    Most of the French analysis I’ve heard this morning is that it’s a gamble that Le Pen’s lot get to run parliament for a few years ahead of the next presidential election. Difficult times with economics, Ukraine, potential rumbunctious EU politics.

    The idea is that he pulls back the curtain on them, points out the lack of clothes on the emperor as governing isn’t easy, whinging is, and governing in difficult times is, as we’ve seen in the UK very har and harder still if your party has lots of nuts.

    So he’s going for a few years of shit to avoid long term super-shit.

    Well that’s the theory.
    She falls just short of a majority and makes the rest run a shambolic coalition of mad French all stripes whilst Macron starts to make Rishi look popular
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,411
    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    Does everyone forget that Johnson threw most of the talent out. Stewart, Gauke, Hammond would all be assets to the current Tories.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    You could always submit one.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1800070764756165056?s=19

    Opinium must mark all responses as 'Reform 10/10' or they'll make baby Jesus cry
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084

    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    Does everyone forget that Johnson threw most of the talent out. Stewart, Gauke, Hammond would all be assets to the current Tories.
    When Johnson did that he chose ideological purity and personal loyalty over pragmatism and the Tories ceased to be a broad church conservative party.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    edited June 10
    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    It’s a weird decision. He’s clearly not doing it for himself, as he’s term limited, so is he trying to get a better-looking Parliament that can help his legislative programme before he hands over to someone else, but at the risk of ending up with Le Pen’s party increasing their representation and spending the next two years being nothing but obstructive towards anything remotely centrist?
    Most of the French analysis I’ve heard this morning is that it’s a gamble that Le Pen’s lot get to run parliament for a few years ahead of the next presidential election. Difficult times with economics, Ukraine, potential rumbunctious EU politics.

    The idea is that he pulls back the curtain on them, points out the lack of clothes on the emperor as governing isn’t easy, whinging is, and governing in difficult times is, as we’ve seen in the UK very har and harder still if your party has lots of nuts.

    So he’s going for a few years of shit to avoid long term super-shit.

    Well that’s the theory.
    Indeed, though I fear that history is littered with examples of the “give them a go and people will see how bad they are at it and come back to us” tactic not working out as intended.

    What such a tactic often does is serves to legitimise that party as a party of government, and it allows it to wrestle the narrative from you. It’s brave to expect a party just entering government to crash and burn in 3 years - similar to the conversations we’ve had around Labour winning here, there will be a certain amount of benefit of the doubt given.

    And I think one of the reasons MLP has failed at winning the presidency so far is that there are simply a group of voters to whom the cordon sanitaire still holds. Once RN get into power, there is no guarantee that feeling will still exist.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    The challenge for centre right parties here and in the EU, I think, is how to engage with the populist right. They need the votes that otherwise go to populist parties without actually becoming one themselves, which would destroy them. Proto fascists go for the real thing rather than moderated versions, while the good guys, who are fortunately still the big majority, want nothing to do with any of it.

    Do they? On current results the centre right are still ahead of the centre left in the EU parliament elections even despite the rise in the far right and nationalist right.

    Remember many far right voters will be working class whites who in the past might have voted Labour, Socialist or Social Democrat but would never vote centre right

    Similar to the white working class former Democrats in the US rustbelt who voted for Trump
    I really felt that after spending a night in the far right's Northern French hinterland a week ago. The sort of bleak, hollowed out left behind town where the last thing you'd expect anyone to vote would be for the establishment right, like LR. The kind of place where, like the Brexit voters, the locals feel there's nothing to lose so go for a strong leader.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    FPT
    Farooq said:

    I've just noticed that @TSE has highlighted "Rich" in the screenshot in the article.
    Well played, sir, you almost slipped that one past me.

    Subtlety has always been my hallmark.

    It was more I did a search for Richmond as the market wasn't in an alphabetical order.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    It’s a weird decision. He’s clearly not doing it for himself, as he’s term limited, so is he trying to get a better-looking Parliament that can help his legislative programme before he hands over to someone else, but at the risk of ending up with Le Pen’s party increasing their representation and spending the next two years being nothing but obstructive towards anything remotely centrist?
    Most of the French analysis I’ve heard this morning is that it’s a gamble that Le Pen’s lot get to run parliament for a few years ahead of the next presidential election. Difficult times with economics, Ukraine, potential rumbunctious EU politics.

    The idea is that he pulls back the curtain on them, points out the lack of clothes on the emperor as governing isn’t easy, whinging is, and governing in difficult times is, as we’ve seen in the UK very har and harder still if your party has lots of nuts.

    So he’s going for a few years of shit to avoid long term super-shit.

    Well that’s the theory.
    Indeed, though I fear that history is littered with examples of the “give them a go and people will see how bad they are at it and come back to us” tactic not working out as intended.

    What such a tactic often does is serves to legitimise that party as a party of government, and it allows it to wrestle the narrative from you. It’s brave to expect a party just entering government to crash and burn in 3 years - similar to the conversations we’ve had around Labour winning here, there will be a certain amount of benefit of the doubt given.

    And I think one of the reasons MLP has failed at the presidency so far is that there are simply a group of voters to whom the cordon sanitaire still holds. Once RN get into power, there is no guarantee that feeling will still exist.
    I think there's a point there. Yes the far right have slipped back in these elections where they were incumbents, but Austria, the Netherlands and multiple Eastern European countries (and the USA) show that once they've been in power they tend to hang around and come back after setbacks.
  • Options
    JamesFJamesF Posts: 22
    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    It would be nice if this were possible. But how can the Conservatives take on and defeat the populist right?

    I struggle to see how the populist right can be defeated even by a cross-party or cross-society attack.

    I also don't think the prospects for Conservatives are quite so dire. Having suspended my lurking on pb for several years until this general election, I'm heartened (as someone much further to the left) by how many one-nation tory posters remain. They haven't drifted to the increasingly populist right, they've remained true to their original principles. They stand for things I understand and respect (and sometimes disagree with). And their views are surely representative of a large proportion of the population.

    Once a Conservative party successfully reestablishes itself - as surely it must - it will find it has support.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Something went very wrong with candidate selection. Louise Mensch resigning after two years, was the shape of things to come. Then, the parade of scandals ( sexual or financial), the spate of defections to other parties, the general air of weirdness about them, all point to failure to vet people.

    Does everyone forget that Johnson threw most of the talent out. Stewart, Gauke, Hammond would all be assets to the current Tories.
    When Johnson did that he chose ideological purity and personal loyalty over pragmatism and the Tories ceased to be a broad church conservative party.
    If they do go careering off into a hard right tailspin after the election, then we just have to keep our fingers crossed that brand recognition plus the electoral system doesn't let them back into power, if they simply sit and grumble for long enough until the public gets bored of Labour. Being stuck in this Buggins Turn cycle between the two existing large parties is enormously damaging. They can get away with all kinds of nonsense.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    edited June 10

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1800070764756165056?s=19

    Opinium must mark all responses as 'Reform 10/10' or they'll make baby Jesus cry

    Yes, this is the sort of sh*t that limits Farage’s appeal. We saw it on display earlier when he was saying he would’ve won election before if it hadn’t have been for cheating.

    We are, thankfully, not at a stage in our politics where Trumpian post-truth idiocy infects us so that any populist losing means that the system was cooked against them.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,529
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    Or, merge with them. That could work, too
    It really won't. Farage is loathed by too many erstwhile Conservatives.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    Dougie quitting as Scots Tory leader and quitting Holyrood if he wins against Rochdale Pioneer apparently.
    Murdos separate party plan incoming..........
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1800070764756165056?s=19

    Opinium must mark all responses as 'Reform 10/10' or they'll make baby Jesus cry

    I’m sure that Opinium believes that their approach to polling gives an accurate reflection of the state of public opinion. They could be correct or not, but you cannot infer the latter simply because you don’t like the result.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 10
    YouGov have looked at how the various policies are going down. Quadruple lock, energy company and water pollution measures are popular; National Service and lowering the voting age the opposite.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49655-general-election-2024-which-new-policies-do-people-support
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 10
    A crucial plank of us avoiding a Trunpian future was Johnson not being able to nobble Paul Dacre into the head of Ofcom.

    If he had, GBNews and TalkTv would have been provided exactly the same service that Fox News in America has for decades, gradually weakening the democratic structure.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    No, he's jumping before being pushed.
    And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.

    It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Sorry to veer off topic but surely we need a thread on the EU elex? They have convulsed many of our neighbours. Macron has even called “Le Snappylec” in reaction - a move which still smacks of desperation to me. There are so many ways it can go wrong and not many it can go right

    He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”

    The march of the right was somewhat patchy across Europe. But Macron's move does look courageous.
    To me Macron's move has the feel of Major's resignation in 1995 to face down his internal critics in the Tory Party.

    "Back me or sack me!".
    I don't think either of these are quite right. Macron has two years left of a presidency limited to two terms. He isn't the government. Macron will go on for another two years then that's it. Nothing changes in that respect.

    What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
    It’s a weird decision. He’s clearly not doing it for himself, as he’s term limited, so is he trying to get a better-looking Parliament that can help his legislative programme before he hands over to someone else, but at the risk of ending up with Le Pen’s party increasing their representation and spending the next two years being nothing but obstructive towards anything remotely centrist?
    Most of the French analysis I’ve heard this morning is that it’s a gamble that Le Pen’s lot get to run parliament for a few years ahead of the next presidential election. Difficult times with economics, Ukraine, potential rumbunctious EU politics.

    The idea is that he pulls back the curtain on them, points out the lack of clothes on the emperor as governing isn’t easy, whinging is, and governing in difficult times is, as we’ve seen in the UK very har and harder still if your party has lots of nuts.

    So he’s going for a few years of shit to avoid long term super-shit.

    Well that’s the theory.
    She falls just short of a majority and makes the rest run a shambolic coalition of mad French all stripes whilst Macron starts to make Rishi look popular
    Worse, LREM limps back as largest party, with perhaps 220 seats, and RN are on perhaps 160, making Macron’s predicament worse.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,529
    Leon said:

    tlg86 said:

    A reminder that Chris Patten, as Tory Chairman, was MP in the Lib Dems' top target seat. He didn't do the chicken run - he set the right example in defeat, while masterminding Major's 1992 win.

    From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.

    Amusing that Patten's performance in Bath was worse than the Tories did nationally.
    Patten is one of the architects of Brexit. Whenever it looked like the Tories might offer a referendum - on Maastricht etc - he was there to scupper the idea, thus stoking the fires of euroscepticism so much we actually voted to Leave completely, in the end. He is a fool. A clever, eloquent fool
    Why do so many Brexit folk continue to blame pro-Europeans for their own folly? It's like they all know that the course the UK has taken since 2016 is a Suez style screw up, but those who opposed it are responsible.
    Brexit has crippled the Tories, maybe even killed them, but it is the populists that have to own it.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    Guardians latest blind date article is a bit naff
    https://x.com/GdnPolitics/status/1800041596752404933?s=19
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    Eabhal said:

    YouGov have looked at how the various policies are going down. Quadruple lock, energy company and water pollution measures are popular; National Service and lowering the voting age the opposite.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49655-general-election-2024-which-new-policies-do-people-support

    One of those oddities of public opinion vs lobby opinion: the pensions triple lock has always been popular. Now the quadruple too. Is this some residual gerontocratic respect for elders thing going on?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Conservatives need to take on and defeat the populist right, else they die. It’s quite simple.

    Or, merge with them. That could work, too
    It really won't. Farage is loathed by too many erstwhile Conservatives.
    But they are erstwhile, who cares?

    I agree on the narrow point of Farage, he is probably disliked by too many, he is very Marmite. I cannot see a successful Tory-Reform party led by him, it would have to be a Tory and he'd be second in command
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Morning all :)

    Those who wish to write a thread on the European Parliament Elections can and I'm told there's a half decent writer in our menagerie.

    As for the current topic, it's going to be fascinating - if the Conservatives do manage to finish clear second in terms of seats and votes then we'll be back on the usual treadmill of wondering how long it will take the Party to get back to power. After all, despite one of the greatest global financial upheavals since 1945, they couldn't win a majority in 2010 so who knows h,ow long it might take if they are starting 250 or more seats behind Labour?

    Let's head to the next circle of hell - second in terms of votes, third in terms of seats. That would be an unprecedented position for the Conservatives - how would they react to being "the third party" in terms of seats but still second in terms of votes? I doubt we'd see a damascene conversion to electoral change but it would be uncomfortable for the party and they might take time to adapt to their chastened circumstances.

    Down we go - third in terms of votes, third or even fourth in terms of seats. This is where it gets existential - a Conservative Party reduced to 20-30 seats would be vulnerable to Reform assuming the latter gets more votes but fewer seats. It's possible Reform would be second in a number of Labour seats and they would be able to claim they were in a better position to reduce the enormous Labour majority.

    The Conservatives wouldn't just be a southern rump, they'd likely be a rural rump, chased out of almost all the major towns and cities (and let's not forget their local Government presence has declined as well). The idea of joining forces with or an electoral pact with Reform would be hugely attractive.

    From 1945 to the early 1980s we had a duopoly where Labour and Conservatives split 85-95% of the vote between them - that changed with the coming of the Alliance and in both 1983 and 1987 you had the Conservatives in the low 40s and the Labour/Alliance vote around or just over 50% which under FPTP rewarded the Conservatives handsomely.

    That continued up to 2015 - the winning party polled less than the second and third parties combined. The implosion of the LDs in 2015 briefly restored the duopoly but now we seem to have moved to a position where you have a main party (Labour) and four other parties (Conservative, LD, Reform and Green) and the vote proportion is roughly low 40s to around of just over 50 so much as it was with the three main parties (Con, Lab and Alliance) in the 1980s and early 90s.

    The fragmentation of the second and third party votes is punished even more in FPTP than the fragmentation of the third party votes on their own. I put Labour 35%, Conservative 23%, Reform 15%, LD 12% and Green 7% into Electoral Calculus - Labour still has a majority of 138.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    ToryJim said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1800070764756165056?s=19

    Opinium must mark all responses as 'Reform 10/10' or they'll make baby Jesus cry

    I’m sure that Opinium believes that their approach to polling gives an accurate reflection of the state of public opinion. They could be correct or not, but you cannot infer the latter simply because you don’t like the result.
    Farage needs to point to some actual elections where Reform outperform what you'd expect from Opinium's national numbers. He'll be looking for a while.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 10
    "Patten was one of the architects of Brexit".

    I genuinely thought that was a typo or autocorrect for Putin, when I first looked.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,424
    edited June 10
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    YouGov have looked at how the various policies are going down. Quadruple lock, energy company and water pollution measures are popular; National Service and lowering the voting age the opposite.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49655-general-election-2024-which-new-policies-do-people-support

    One of those oddities of public opinion vs lobby opinion: the pensions triple lock has always been popular. Now the quadruple too. Is this some residual gerontocratic respect for elders thing going on?
    Lots of people grew up with old people as war heroes and haven't noticed that they're now just the most selfish generation in history who have taken out far more than they ever contributed.
This discussion has been closed.