I had no idea there was an actual war between transnistria and Moldova. But there was from 1990-1992. Mainly fought - brilliantly (if you love layers of history) - at the Bendery Fortress first built by Suleiman the Magnfiicent, then endlessly swapped between various empires - Ottoman, austrohungarian, Swedish. Polish, Russian Tsarist, Soviet, Nazi - a Moldovan walnut and honey millefeulle of military history
I also had the best borscht of my life in a commie theme restaurant where you spooned your sour cream over your beet soup under a Bakelite radio embosssed with the face of Stalin and just now as we left transistria we got thoroughly examined by Putin’s Russian troops; who mass on this border quite menacingly
Superb. That’s proper travel
Pah! You've not done real travel till you've hiked around Woodstock market square when the farmers' market is on and Labour have a campaign stall. You need to be more adventurous.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Get a trandem. Then they could really brand themselves as the Goodies
Right now, I'm betting on individual constituencies to seek out value. I find the under/overs too much honest to fortune with odds that just aren't attractive enough for me.
I'm mostly doing the same, trying to pull a few together for a piece or decide on one or two to focus on.
I see hardly any value in the main markets now.
1.11 on Labour Majority is ridiculous this early on, even though we know it's very probably going to happen.
Sort of on topic. Wandering around Woodstock this morning on a weekend away: only one party out campaigning in this new seat likely to be a three-way split:
Lovely stone. And they've hung their sign rather than use blu-tack. Good for them.
I've moved in the last year to Harrogate. No idea how it will go. Polling will suggest Conservative defeat. But I think the MP is relatively popular and in the leaflet battle its currently 2 vs 1 Tory vs Lib Dem. That said in a local council by election the Lib Dems defended a seat well and did well in NY elections in 2023.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Layla Moran. Is Farron still an MP? Alistair Carmichael, though I'm not sure about the spelling. That's all I've got. I didn't google.
Farron was part of Davey’s paddle boarding Point Break shennanigans, Patrick Swayzee to Ed’s Keanu Reeves as it were.
I... haven't seen Point Break. Is it about bar charts with dubious y-axes?
Pretty much, with added wetsuits and a homoerotic undercurrent.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Layla Moran. Is Farron still an MP? Alistair Carmichael, though I'm not sure about the spelling. That's all I've got. I didn't google.
Those, plus Daisy Cooper and the mad one in Bath. Wera Hobhouse?
Christ, what percentage is that?
40%
I don't think I could name 40% of the current Cabinet. I suppose I really ought to start wearing my sandals.
I had no idea there was an actual war between transnistria and Moldova. But there was from 1990-1992. Mainly fought - brilliantly (if you love layers of history) - at the Bendery Fortress first built by Suleiman the Magnfiicent, then endlessly swapped between various empires - Ottoman, austrohungarian, Swedish. Polish, Russian Tsarist, Soviet, Nazi - a Moldovan walnut and honey millefeulle of military history
I also had the best borscht of my life in a commie theme restaurant where you spooned your sour cream over your beet soup under a Bakelite radio embosssed with the face of Stalin and just now as we left transistria we got thoroughly examined by Putin’s Russian troops; who mass on this border quite menacingly
Superb. That’s proper travel
Pah! You've not done real travel till you've hiked around Woodstock market square when the farmers' market is on and Labour have a campaign stall. You need to be more adventurous.
Moldova is brilliant if you want that sense of “fuck I’m the only tourist here and probably only the third this year”. In some places you could be the only tourist they’ve ever had - or so I am told. Ie down in the south or the “wild north”
I love that feeling so Moldava rocks - for me. But it’s not for everyone
Sort of on topic. Wandering around Woodstock this morning on a weekend away: only one party out campaigning in this new seat likely to be a three-way split:
If you can remember the Labour campaign in Woodstock, you weren't really there.
Terry Valentine: Did you ever dream about a place you never really recall being to before? A place that maybe only exists in your imagination? Some place far away, half remembered when you wake up. When you were there, though, you knew the language. You knew your way around. *That* was the sixties.
[pause]
No. It wasn't that either. It was just '66 and early '67. That's all there was.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Layla Moran. Is Farron still an MP? Alistair Carmichael, though I'm not sure about the spelling. That's all I've got. I didn't google.
Farron was part of Davey’s paddle boarding Point Break shennanigans, Patrick Swayzee to Ed’s Keanu Reeves as it were.
I... haven't seen Point Break. Is it about bar charts with dubious y-axes?
Pretty much, with added wetsuits and a homoerotic undercurrent.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
To share with the deputy leader:
Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do I'm half crazy all for the love of you It won't be a stylish marriage I can't afford a carriage But you'll look sweet upon the seat Of a bicycle built for two
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Westmorland and Lonsdale will provide a big orange splodge on results maps in the north of England, even though it’s only a single seat! It’s got to be as big in area as Labour’s 19 north-east seats put together.
I had no idea there was an actual war between transnistria and Moldova. But there was from 1990-1992. Mainly fought - brilliantly (if you love layers of history) - at the Bendery Fortress first built by Suleiman the Magnfiicent, then endlessly swapped between various empires - Ottoman, austrohungarian, Swedish. Polish, Russian Tsarist, Soviet, Nazi - a Moldovan walnut and honey millefeulle of military history
I also had the best borscht of my life in a commie theme restaurant where you spooned your sour cream over your beet soup under a Bakelite radio embosssed with the face of Stalin and just now as we left transistria we got thoroughly examined by Putin’s Russian troops; who mass on this border quite menacingly
Superb. That’s proper travel
Pah! You've not done real travel till you've hiked around Woodstock market square when the farmers' market is on and Labour have a campaign stall. You need to be more adventurous.
Moldova is brilliant if you want that sense of “fuck I’m the only tourist here and probably only the third this year”. In some places you could be the only tourist they’ve ever had - or so I am told. Ie down in the south or the “wild north”
I love that feeling so Moldava rocks - for me. But it’s not for everyone
I confess I enjoy your travelblog snippets from places I will never visit for various practical reasons.
Just thinking about Aaron Bell declining to stand again, I do hope @Tissue_Price returns to PB after the election to give is some insight into life as a Tory MP for the past five years.
In all of England and Wales at the last election they won only one seat north of the Thames - Westmoreland and Lonsdale.*
They've won Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire since, although I expect them to lose the latter again.
Where else in England could they target, realistically? @SandyRentool suggests Harrogate. Round here, maybe Solihull if Julian Knight has decided to split the vote, although that means overtaking Labour. Cheltenham and the Cotswolds are mentioned. But where else might come into play?
It doesn't seem to me a very long list since they blew up their carefully assembled strength in uni seats by voting through the Browne review nonsense.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Edited because I hadn't even seen that when I wrote this!
*Had forgotten St Albans (sorry @Verulamius ) but the essential point stands.
Cheadle is an obvious northern England LibDem target.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
A tribute to the Union,
I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
Plaid Cymru suck up a lot of the liberal, left of centre, localist, not Con or Lab vote.
In all of England and Wales at the last election they won only one seat north of the Thames - Westmoreland and Lonsdale.*
They've won Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire since, although I expect them to lose the latter again.
Where else in England could they target, realistically? @SandyRentool suggests Harrogate. Round here, maybe Solihull if Julian Knight has decided to split the vote, although that means overtaking Labour. Cheltenham and the Cotswolds are mentioned. But where else might come into play?
It doesn't seem to me a very long list since they blew up their carefully assembled strength in uni seats by voting through the Browne review nonsense.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Edited because I hadn't even seen that when I wrote this!
*Had forgotten St Albans (sorry @Verulamius ) but the essential point stands.
Cheadle is an obvious northern England LibDem target.
Bicester & Woodstock is a three-way marginal on paper.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
@Quincel, while I think you are right in your betting approach, there is an element of splitting-the-difference, which worries me. If one set of polls using one methodology comes up with a low number, and another comes up with a high one, then one set is wrong and the skill lies in picking the right one. By betting on under 40 (and by implication selecting the lower estimates) you've adopted the right strategy and well done as per usual. But I'm wondering if picking one of "under 30" or "over 50" would be better.
Gaagh, I'm tying myself in knots. Ignore me...
I think this makes sense. You think the middling Lib Dem seat results are something of an unstable middle? I find myself oscillating wildly between the two extremes of 20 and 60, skipping right over 40 like it doesn't exist. So I think I'm seeing it the same way as you, but can't quite nail down why. Quincel's header is very good, but hasn't settled that instability in my mind.
Right now my thought pattern is the Lib Dems will tail off the football starts to dominate. Gut feeling.
One of the scars I picked up on the coalface of a very numerical science was that it's very hard to escape the normal distribution.
The world I live in (professionally), it’s often the negative binomial distribution that matters! Got a couple of highly cited papers out of the negative binomial. Definitely my favourite.
I'd prefer 25 seats than 43 if it's just due to Tory decline and if I'm defending against a Tory resurgence next time.
Eh? On that basis Labour should prefer to miss winning a majority, in case they lose it next time.
LibDems have a small but non-zero chance of winning more seats than the Tories and becoming the Official Opposition if the campaign goes their way; they should seize it while they can.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Westmorland and Lonsdale will provide a big orange splodge on results maps in the north of England, even though it’s only a single seat! It’s got to be as big in area as Labour’s 19 north-east seats put together.
I really like the Economist visualization of seats which preserves geographical accuracy and a clear view of seat density.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
Moldovans have the choice of joining Romania. About 40% want to. Inside EU and Nato in one step.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Layla Moran. Is Farron still an MP? Alistair Carmichael, though I'm not sure about the spelling. That's all I've got. I didn't google.
20% of the outgoing LibDem Parliamentary party is called Sarah.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Westmorland and Lonsdale will provide a big orange splodge on results maps in the north of England, even though it’s only a single seat! It’s got to be as big in area as Labour’s 19 north-east seats put together.
I really like the Economist visualization of seats which preserves geographical accuracy and a clear view of seat density.
Their forecast is pretty bearish for Lib Dems seats. 22 in total, just behind 24 for the SNP, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale staying blue by a whisker.
Cheadle is the northernmost English seat they give to the Lib Dems, followed by South Cambridgeshire.
Don't buy that at all. Weighs the Labour vote too heavily in the Wards which come over from Penrith and the Border. Where the Labour vote was double the LD last time. I expect those to fold to the LD. I'm not convinced it will even be close.
I'd prefer 25 seats than 43 if it's just due to Tory decline and if I'm defending against a Tory resurgence next time.
Tories are going to get worse before they get better. Just remember the next leader will be chosen by the people who chose truss. And look at the hopefuls. They are out for 3 electoral cycles.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
A last ditch idea for Rishi. A free daily lottery. £1,000.000 to the winner.
Cost £352,000,000. Everyone likes a gamble. Loads of millionaires. Cost less than Rwanda.
I have always been of the view that divvying up all the cost of government promotion of electoral registration and turnout promotion, and using it to fund a lottery where one name per constituency comes out of the hat and that person wins 1/650th of the pot - but if that person didn't vote their share gets redistributed among the other 649, etc etc - would be more effective and more fun.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Westmorland and Lonsdale will provide a big orange splodge on results maps in the north of England, even though it’s only a single seat! It’s got to be as big in area as Labour’s 19 north-east seats put together.
I really like the Economist visualization of seats which preserves geographical accuracy and a clear view of seat density.
Their forecast is pretty bearish for Lib Dems seats. 22 in total, just behind 24 for the SNP, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale staying blue by a whisker.
Cheadle is the northernmost English seat they give to the Lib Dems, followed by South Cambridgeshire.
W&L was a Conservative win on notional results, but the notional results are terrible at accounting for hyperlocal LibDem campaigns. That’s where the models fall down. I can’t see Farron losing it.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
According to Wikipedia, Romania has a modest number of F-16s, with more ordered, still has 102 T-55 tanks in active service (Abrams tanks ordered), though also somewhat modernised derivatives, and some HIMARS.
They still have old 152mm artillery which doesn't help with NATO interoperability.
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Westmorland and Lonsdale will provide a big orange splodge on results maps in the north of England, even though it’s only a single seat! It’s got to be as big in area as Labour’s 19 north-east seats put together.
I really like the Economist visualization of seats which preserves geographical accuracy and a clear view of seat density.
Their forecast is pretty bearish for Lib Dems seats. 22 in total, just behind 24 for the SNP, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale staying blue by a whisker.
Cheadle is the northernmost English seat they give to the Lib Dems, followed by South Cambridgeshire.
W&L was a Conservative win on notional results, but the notional results are terrible at accounting for hyperlocal LibDem campaigns. That’s where the models fall down. I can’t see Farron losing it.
They are also pretty terrible at accounting for tactical voting in altered seats.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
What unnerved me as we exited transnistria (via a different route to the main road in) was that we went through the transnistrian border control. Passed the transnistrian flag, smiled at the bored guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Westmorland and Lonsdale will provide a big orange splodge on results maps in the north of England, even though it’s only a single seat! It’s got to be as big in area as Labour’s 19 north-east seats put together.
I really like the Economist visualization of seats which preserves geographical accuracy and a clear view of seat density.
Their forecast is pretty bearish for Lib Dems seats. 22 in total, just behind 24 for the SNP, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale staying blue by a whisker.
Cheadle is the northernmost English seat they give to the Lib Dems, followed by South Cambridgeshire.
W&L was a Conservative win on notional results, but the notional results are terrible at accounting for hyperlocal LibDem campaigns. That’s where the models fall down. I can’t see Farron losing it.
It's a bit of a weird one. They have the Lib Dems vote falling quite substantially compared to the notional result, which does seem unlikely.
Russian policy in Moldova isn't (yet) SMO II just as SMO I was never Plan A.
They bankroll opposition politicians at a national level such as Voronin and Batrincea. This is experiencing, what Blair would have called, 'deferred success' at the moment.
What is working is bringing Gagauzia into the Rysskii Mir by integrating its banking system, installing a pro-Russian governor (with Ilon Shor as bagman) and allowing Gagauzians to claim Russian social benefits (and probably passports). The benefits are a powerful tool because Moldovan state pensions, etc. aren't worth shit.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
I don’t believe Romania would do anything. It’s not Poland or the Baltics. It is poor and incapable. Its not going to take on Putin and Moldova is not in the EU or in NATO so there would not be back up
A last ditch idea for Rishi. A free daily lottery. £1,000.000 to the winner.
Cost £352,000,000. Everyone likes a gamble. Loads of millionaires. Cost less than Rwanda.
I have always been of the view that divvying up all the cost of government promotion of electoral registration and turnout promotion, and using it to fund a lottery where one name per constituency comes out of the hat and that person wins 1/650th of the pot - but if that person didn't vote their share gets redistributed among the other 649, etc etc - would be more effective and more fun.
The Economist floated the idea that for every pound in income tax you paid, you get a lottery ticket. If you win, you get back your tax for the year.
No limit on how much excess tax you pay.
For some rates of winning, they got a social scientist and an economist to work out that it would increase tax take considerably - far more than the payouts.
I'd prefer 25 seats than 43 if it's just due to Tory decline and if I'm defending against a Tory resurgence next time.
Tories are going to get worse before they get better. Just remember the next leader will be chosen by the people who chose truss. And look at the hopefuls. They are out for 3 electoral cycles.
I remember people on here saying that about Labour in early 2020.
The electorate are much more volatile than they used to be, there's much less growth for the government to steal the proceeds to buy people off, and, of course, events ...
A last ditch idea for Rishi. A free daily lottery. £1,000.000 to the winner.
Cost £352,000,000. Everyone likes a gamble. Loads of millionaires. Cost less than Rwanda.
I have always been of the view that divvying up all the cost of government promotion of electoral registration and turnout promotion, and using it to fund a lottery where one name per constituency comes out of the hat and that person wins 1/650th of the pot - but if that person didn't vote their share gets redistributed among the other 649, etc etc - would be more effective and more fun.
The Economist floated the idea that for every pound in income tax you paid, you get a lottery ticket. If you win, you get back your tax for the year.
No limit on how much excess tax you pay.
For some rates of winning, they got a social scientist and an economist to work out that it would increase tax take considerably - far more than the payouts.
I would think that a lot of people would hate that idea.
Hello to Everyone. My prediction for the Uk election is Labour 365 seats. Tories 200. Lib Dems 50. The other parties will make up the rest. It would be great to see what everyones numbers are so please leave your forcast. I would like to leave any debating until we have some black and white figures and following that let the debate about the number of seats begin!
Russian policy in Moldova isn't (yet) SMO II just as SMO I was never Plan A.
They bankroll opposition politicians at a national level such as Voronin and Batrincea. This is experiencing, what Blair would have called, 'deferred success' at the moment.
What is working is bringing Gagauzia into the Rysskii Mir by integrating its banking system, installing a pro-Russian governor (with Ilon Shor as bagman) and allowing Gagauzians to claim Russian social benefits (and probably passports). The benefits are a powerful tool because Moldovan state pensions, etc. aren't worth shit.
Yes. I’d not heard of gagauzia until I got here but now I understand the issue. Moldovans don’t like talking about it but gagauzia is a transsnistria in the making - they have a statue of Lenin too. They are pro Russian. Indeed they are more ethnically separate from Moldova than transnistria. They are Turkic orthodox Christians
However on the other side you can see the split loyalties in transnistria. There are prominent memorials to the disaster of Chernobyl and to the thousands of transnistrians that fought in the Soviet Afghanistan war. These are not celebrating the connection with Moscow
After my intense 5 hour trip where I learned everything I get the sense the average person just wants it all to go away and sell rose petal jam and dill pickle but of course wars are not decided by the average person or by tiny tiny countries
I'd prefer 25 seats than 43 if it's just due to Tory decline and if I'm defending against a Tory resurgence next time.
Tories are going to get worse before they get better. Just remember the next leader will be chosen by the people who chose truss. And look at the hopefuls. They are out for 3 electoral cycles.
I remember people on here saying that about Labour in early 2020.
The electorate are much more volatile than they used to be, there's much less growth for the government to steal the proceeds to buy people off, and, of course, events ...
I had no idea there was an actual war between transnistria and Moldova. But there was from 1990-1992. Mainly fought - brilliantly (if you love layers of history) - at the Bendery Fortress first built by Suleiman the Magnfiicent, then endlessly swapped between various empires - Ottoman, austrohungarian, Swedish. Polish, Russian Tsarist, Soviet, Nazi - a Moldovan walnut and honey millefeulle of military history
I also had the best borscht of my life in a commie theme restaurant where you spooned your sour cream over your beet soup under a Bakelite radio embosssed with the face of Stalin and just now as we left transistria we got thoroughly examined by Putin’s Russian troops; who mass on this border quite menacingly
Superb. That’s proper travel
Pah! You've not done real travel till you've hiked around Woodstock market square when the farmers' market is on and Labour have a campaign stall. You need to be more adventurous.
Moldova is brilliant if you want that sense of “fuck I’m the only tourist here and probably only the third this year”. In some places you could be the only tourist they’ve ever had - or so I am told. Ie down in the south or the “wild north”
I love that feeling so Moldava rocks - for me. But it’s not for everyone
On interesting Moldovan rocks, the river valley at old Orhei is an ancient settlement with tunnels and a monastery carved into it. It makes you feel very small, and humans very old, like all old river sites. I think itight be on the UNESCO provisional list, or will be.
On Moldova and Transnistria politically, my impressions are 10 years out of date, but the anti-Russians were generally more ambivalent about any outside influence rather than pro EU. Presumably that's changed a bit. And as you say, there are quite a few pro-Russian pockets in Moldova itself.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Is their any doubt that if Putin conquers Ukraine, he'll immediately move on to Moldova?
For those interested in the Indian elections, exit polls should start coming in in around 10 minutes. Though I think I am right in saying the track record is mixed, and a lot of different organisations release them.
Hello to Everyone. My prediction for the Uk election is Labour 365 seats. Tories 200. Lib Dems 50. The other parties will make up the rest. It would be great to see what everyones numbers are so please leave your forcast. I would like to leave any debating until we have some black and white figures and following that let the debate about the number of seats begin!
Hmm, so you've got SNP, PC and Others on a total of 17? Seems unlikely. I'd go Lab 365, Con 213, LD 25, SNP 25, Others 4, NI 18
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
I don’t believe Romania would do anything. It’s not Poland or the Baltics. It is poor and incapable. Its not going to take on Putin and Moldova is not in the EU or in NATO so there would not be back up
Both appeasing and destroying morale there. I don't know why we should give a fuck what particular gang of criminals is running Moldova.
For those interested in the Indian elections, exit polls should start coming in in around 10 minutes. Though I think I am right in saying the track record is mixed, and a lot of different organisations release them.
Vote counting not until the 4th.
Heatwave in northern India could affect the voting today (the final phase).
Russian policy in Moldova isn't (yet) SMO II just as SMO I was never Plan A.
They bankroll opposition politicians at a national level such as Voronin and Batrincea. This is experiencing, what Blair would have called, 'deferred success' at the moment.
What is working is bringing Gagauzia into the Rysskii Mir by integrating its banking system, installing a pro-Russian governor (with Ilon Shor as bagman) and allowing Gagauzians to claim Russian social benefits (and probably passports). The benefits are a powerful tool because Moldovan state pensions, etc. aren't worth shit.
Yes. I’d not heard of gagauzia until I got here but now I understand the issue. Moldovans don’t like talking about it but gagauzia is a transsnistria in the making - they have a statue of Lenin too. They are pro Russian. Indeed they are more ethnically separate from Moldova than transnistria. They are Turkic orthodox Christians
However on the other side you can see the split loyalties in transnistria. There are prominent memorials to the disaster of Chernobyl and to the thousands of transnistrians that fought in the Soviet Afghanistan war. These are not celebrating the connection with Moscow
After my intense 5 hour trip where I learned everything I get the sense the average person just wants it all to go away and sell rose petal jam and dill pickle but of course wars are not decided by the average person or by tiny tiny countries
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
I don’t believe Romania would do anything. It’s not Poland or the Baltics. It is poor and incapable. Its not going to take on Putin and Moldova is not in the EU or in NATO so there would not be back up
Both appeasing and destroying morale there. I don't know why we should give a fuck what particular gang of criminals is running Moldova.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Is their any doubt that if Putin conquers Ukraine, he'll immediately move on to Moldova?
Depends on how wobbly NATO looks. The Baltics would be a higher priority if NATO is weak and divided.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
What unnerved me as we exited transnistria (via a different route to the main road in) was that we went through the transnistrian border control. Passed the transnistrian flag, smiled at the bored guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
Fun fact - until 1940, most of Transnistria (ie. the bits on the east bank of the Dniester) was administered as part of Ukraine.
For those interested in the Indian elections, exit polls should start coming in in around 10 minutes. Though I think I am right in saying the track record is mixed, and a lot of different organisations release them.
Vote counting not until the 4th.
Heatwave in northern India could affect the voting today (the final phase).
50C in Delhi the other day. Is there differential heat tolerance between factions though?
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
I don’t believe Romania would do anything. It’s not Poland or the Baltics. It is poor and incapable. Its not going to take on Putin and Moldova is not in the EU or in NATO so there would not be back up
Both appeasing and destroying morale there. I don't know why we should give a fuck what particular gang of criminals is running Moldova.
I don’t believe this nonsense that Putin can’t invade Moldova because he can’t ship enough troops to transnistria “without us noticing”
He doesn’t have to invade. He has a sufficiently menacing garrison on transnistria to make a statement. At the same time he can destabilise Moldova via the transnistrian issue and the gaguazian separatists until Moldova becomes like Georgia - potentially - and becomes a Russian satellite even against the wishes of many of its people. And eu membership recedes into dreamland
For those interested in the Indian elections, exit polls should start coming in in around 10 minutes. Though I think I am right in saying the track record is mixed, and a lot of different organisations release them.
Vote counting not until the 4th.
Heatwave in northern India could affect the voting today (the final phase).
50C in Delhi the other day. Is there differential heat tolerance between factions though?
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
What unnerved me as we exited transnistria (via a different route to the main road in) was that we went through the transnistrian border control. Passed the transnistrian flag, smiled at the bored guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
I remember you telling us two years ago that Russia was about to occupy Moldova.
Then, as now, you couldn't explain how these Russian forces would actually get there.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
I don’t believe Romania would do anything. It’s not Poland or the Baltics. It is poor and incapable. Its not going to take on Putin and Moldova is not in the EU or in NATO so there would not be back up
Both appeasing and destroying morale there. I don't know why we should give a fuck what particular gang of criminals is running Moldova.
That is essentially the Russian argument. Which is why they’re so burned by the idea of states like Ukraine or Moldova becoming EU members sometime in the future (both wish to) and perhaps improving.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
I think too Romania, and therefore NATO, wouldn't tolerate a Russian takeover.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
I don’t believe Romania would do anything. It’s not Poland or the Baltics. It is poor and incapable. Its not going to take on Putin and Moldova is not in the EU or in NATO so there would not be back up
Both appeasing and destroying morale there. I don't know why we should give a fuck what particular gang of criminals is running Moldova.
I don’t believe this nonsense that Putin can’t invade Moldova because he can’t ship enough troops to transnistria “without us noticing”
He doesn’t have to invade. He has a sufficiently menacing garrison on transnistria to make a statement. At the same time he can destabilise Moldova via the transnistrian issue and the gaguazian separatists until Moldova becomes like Georgia - potentially - and becomes a Russian satellite even against the wishes of many of its people. And eu membership recedes into dreamland
VVP is re-running the exact play that failed in Ukraine in Moldova: create a set of permanent and restive pro-Russian enclaves to prevent the larger state from closer integration with the EU. NATO, despite the propaganda, being a second order concern for VVP.
Harpenden and Berkhamsted is like a De Beers convention - awash with orange diamonds.
Nailed on yellow peril GAIN - no value in the market.
I wonder if the seat next door, South West Hertfordshire is a more interesting betting proposition. I can see Sally Symington jumping from fourth to first here - especially if the Lib Dems put some effort in and Labour don't.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Agreed, the present lot are invisible.
Liberal MPs, although few in number, seemed to be quite prominent when I was young.
Steel, Grimond, Wainwright, Beith, Big Cyril, Alton, Freud, Hughes, Penhaligon.
Thinking about the previous thread a bit: I think that the term "Extinction Level Event" is a bit silly, there will always be right wing voters and some sort of Conservative Party to represent them. As the Conservative Party exists, there's no real need to start something new to do exactly the same job. That being said though, it's worth looking at the other "Extinction Level Event" in recent memory and that's Scottish Labour in 2015.
Having cut my political milk teeth in Con/Lab marginals in England and Wales, I attended uni in another Con/Lab marginal in Scotland. But I was living in a very safe (80+%) Labour ward. I got involved, happily posting leaflets, never getting the hang of lamppost banners and I realised something odd, there was no canvas returns. "Where are the canvas returns, I could put them into the computer" I asked. The experienced branch secretary replied "Oh, we don't need them, everyone here votes Labour."
I know that was a generation before 2015 but it stuck with me. When those areas that always voted Labour stopped voting Labour was it just too quick for the complacent attitude to adapt to actually fighting elections? Likewise, does Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Association have good voter ID, do they have the experience of facing a difficult election? I have no idea, but is it possible that we might be at a tipping point where Con seats are lost that shouldn't have been lost because the party just wasn't expecting that to be the battleground.
The other thing that’s changing is new energy links to the EU. Moldova gets most of its power from Transnistra, generated with discount rate gas supplied by Russia, but they could now (in theory) turn off the switch.
Thinking about the previous thread a bit: I think that the term "Extinction Level Event" is a bit silly, there will always be right wing voters and some sort of Conservative Party to represent them. As the Conservative Party exists, there's no real need to start something new to do exactly the same job. That being said though, it's worth looking at the other "Extinction Level Event" in recent memory and that's Scottish Labour in 2015.
Having cut my political milk teeth in Con/Lab marginals in England and Wales, I attended uni in another Con/Lab marginal in Scotland. But I was living in a very safe (80+%) Labour ward. I got involved, happily posting leaflets, never getting the hang of lamppost banners and I realised something odd, there was no canvas returns. "Where are the canvas returns, I could put them into the computer" I asked. The experienced branch secretary replied "Oh, we don't need them, everyone here votes Labour."
I know that was a generation before 2015 but it stuck with me. When those areas that always voted Labour stopped voting Labour was it just too quick for the complacent attitude to adapt to actually fighting elections? Likewise, does Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Association have good voter ID, do they have the experience of facing a difficult election? I have no idea, but is it possible that we might be at a tipping point where Con seats are lost that shouldn't have been lost because the party just wasn't expecting that to be the battleground.
Or there to be an election. Can't organise a scramble defence without a candidate.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
What unnerved me as we exited transnistria (via a different route to the main road in) was that we went through the transnistrian border control. Passed the transnistrian flag, smiled at the bored guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
I remember you telling us two years ago that Russia was about to occupy Moldova.
Then, as now, you couldn't explain how these Russian forces would actually get there.
Russian troops stationed in PMR now get there through Chisinau airport, which the Molodovan government conspicuously fails to do anything about.
There is no way they could get enough troops and equipment through that route for a full invasion so, barring a very unlikely series of blinding successes in Ukraine, there isn't going to be an invasion.
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
Agreed, the present lot are invisible.
Liberal MPs, although few in number, seemed to be quite prominent when I was young.
Steel, Grimond, Wainwright, Beith, Big Cyril, Alton, Freud, Hughes, Penhaligon.
Daisy Cooper's been on TV a few times. But that's about it.
On thread, one additional point regarding the likely LD seat total.
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
What unnerved me as we exited transnistria (via a different route to the main road in) was that we went through the transnistrian border control. Passed the transnistrian flag, smiled at the bored guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
I remember you telling us two years ago that Russia was about to occupy Moldova.
Then, as now, you couldn't explain how these Russian forces would actually get there.
Russian troops stationed in PMR now get there through Chisinau airport, which the Molodovan government conspicuously fails to do anything about.
There is no way they could get enough troops and equipment through that route for a full invasion so, barring a very unlikely series of blinding successes in Ukraine, there isn't going to be an invasion.
In the centre of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, they fly the flag of Transnistria between two other flags. Not Russia or Moldova or the EU
No, the flags of South Ossettia and Abkhazia, the Georgian regions Putin successfully but bloodily won and is now absorbing into Russia. Even as he hopes to extend his grip on rGeorgia itself. That’s surely his new plan for Moldova
He doesn’t need to invade. He’s learned from Ukraine that this can go badly wrong. Ditto occupation
Far better to destabilise and absorb, with some bribery and a hint of military menace. Something closer to what the Chinese do - see how they took Hong Kong without a bullet fired
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
I could get to seven, but that's only because I had done that trawl around a couple of days ago to work out which three Lib Dem MPs had notionally lost their seats to boundary changes (Stone, Chamberlain and Farron).
Thinking about the previous thread a bit: I think that the term "Extinction Level Event" is a bit silly, there will always be right wing voters and some sort of Conservative Party to represent them. As the Conservative Party exists, there's no real need to start something new to do exactly the same job. That being said though, it's worth looking at the other "Extinction Level Event" in recent memory and that's Scottish Labour in 2015.
Having cut my political milk teeth in Con/Lab marginals in England and Wales, I attended uni in another Con/Lab marginal in Scotland. But I was living in a very safe (80+%) Labour ward. I got involved, happily posting leaflets, never getting the hang of lamppost banners and I realised something odd, there was no canvas returns. "Where are the canvas returns, I could put them into the computer" I asked. The experienced branch secretary replied "Oh, we don't need them, everyone here votes Labour."
I know that was a generation before 2015 but it stuck with me. When those areas that always voted Labour stopped voting Labour was it just too quick for the complacent attitude to adapt to actually fighting elections? Likewise, does Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Association have good voter ID, do they have the experience of facing a difficult election? I have no idea, but is it possible that we might be at a tipping point where Con seats are lost that shouldn't have been lost because the party just wasn't expecting that to be the battleground.
The Liberal Democrats - as with so many other issues we discuss and debate, it's complicated and defies simplistic analysis.
Case history - I was an activist in 1997 in the Carshalton & Wallington Constituency working for Tom Brake who was a local councillor. The 1994 local elections had seen the Conservatives drop to 3 councillors in Sutton and lose their group leader, one Mavis Peart. From then, I thought we had a chance of taking Nigel Foreman's seat - he was an old-fashioned Conservative MP, rarely seen in the constituency and largely ineffective.
Tom had cut this majority in 1992 to just under 10,000 and we needed a 9% swing.
Despite the party's vote going down nationally, we got a 12% swing and turned the Conservative majority into an LD majority of 2,300 despite the Labour vote (the Labour vote was also a local councillor) going up 6%. The LD vote went up 7% and the Conservative vote went down by 16% or just under a third - the national share fell from 43% to 31%.
If you think the Conservatives are polling 25% in England, that's just under half the 47% they polled in 2019 so starting with the presumption a 60% 2019 vote is now a 30-35% vote, who picks up the pieces - Reform, the Greens, the LDs, Labour? In all cases, yes and no and that's where your constituency variable comes in.
The local bookmaker in Carshalton offered 4/1 on Tom Brake winning in 1997 - I had been out and saw how much the Conservative vote was fragmenting so I had a sizeable bet and if you're going to play constituency markets, you need good local intel as to what's happening. The bookies didn't have that in 1997 - I heard similar tales of LDs winning big bets in Harrogate, Cheltenham and some other places - it's better now. but probably not up to speed with the ground war.
Turnout was 67% last time - some pollsters are showing it could be 75% (Techne were 68%).
So you have to apply differential turnout set against variable constituency factors to try to "guesstimate" the result in each of the 650 contests (and that's before boundary changes).
That's how the LD seat count goes up even if the national vote tally goes down and the greater fall in Conservative voters accentuates that efficiency especially if the ex-Conservatives either go straight to the LDs or stay at home. I noticed in 1997 some Conservatives went straight to Labour and the issue for Davey is those Conservatives who go straight to Labour - stopping off with Reform or staying at home is less of a problem in the seats the party needs to win.
On thread, one additional point regarding the likely LD seat total.
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
Yes. However. If tactical voting were able to get them to 58 seats, then I expect it would also leave them some way above 9% of the vote nationally.
I’m in a ridiculously idyllic valley settled for 6,000 years and once home to a Tatar village in the 14th century and now full of mulberry trees and wildflowers and a pristine river and I’m staring across the wooden houses to an Edenic garden where about a dozen young Moldovan women in white summer dresses are dancing barefoot in a circle as they sing folk songs
Its like a Balkan Wicker Man with a hint of very soft porn
On more important matters, we have the Derby at Epsom this afternoon over the iconic mile and a half.
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
On thread, one additional point regarding the likely LD seat total.
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
There's a history of the Lib Dems putting on vote share during an election campaign due to receiving more publicity that is implicit in the optimistic scenario for them. Up to 12-14% or so.
This is rather stymied by the Lib Dem's current status as the fourth largest party at Westminster, rather than the third, as had been the case in the past. That is why winning more seats than the SNP is so important to the Lib Dems, and why Davey has resorted to some attention-seeking slapstick stunts.
On the Lib Dems I agree with those down thread that this is complicated. In the elections where the Lib Dems have done particularly well the Tories have done badly. Tick. OTOH they have had outsized figures who have been a genuine part of the national debate, Paddy Ashdown, Charlie Kennedy and even Nick Clegg. Now (and indeed in 2019)? Not so much.
The loss of third position in Parliament has hurt them a lot. I keep thinking that this only matters to obsessives who actually pay attention to PMQs but it goes beyond that. PMQs often gives the lead to the news channels about what they should be blethering about and it is almost never something raised by the Lib Dems.
Their NOTA status has not recovered from the coalition. And they risk losing out to a general desire to see the Tories go forth and multiply biggly. I can see Labour coming from third in a lot of seats.
Overall, I am with @Quincel I would be betting lower rather than higher. But if the Tories really do lose 300 seats all bets are off.
I'd prefer 25 seats than 43 if it's just due to Tory decline and if I'm defending against a Tory resurgence next time.
Eh? On that basis Labour should prefer to miss winning a majority, in case they lose it next time.
LibDems have a small but non-zero chance of winning more seats than the Tories and becoming the Official Opposition if the campaign goes their way; they should seize it while they can.
There will not be a Labour - Lib Dem party system unless one of them turns into a right-wing party, so I disagree. History is full of short-term official oppositions like Canada's NDP and Bloc québécois, that end up going nowhere because they don't try to represent more than around a third of voters.
Travel lesson. Even the crappiest countries can give you incredible experiences. Indeed often it is the crappiest countries. Because: no other tourists and everyone is themselves
This is a much more intense, surprising and delightful moment than my visit to Mont St Michel
On more important matters, we have the Derby at Epsom this afternoon over the iconic mile and a half.
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8vBf6U0ysQ
1.11 on Labour Majority is ridiculous this early on, even though we know it's very probably going to happen.
Outside the usual STW mob Iraq only became an issue because it was a failure.
Undercurrent, hur hur.
I don't think I could name 40% of the current Cabinet. I suppose I really ought to start wearing my sandals.
Necrophobia is an appalling prejudice.
I love that feeling so Moldava rocks - for me. But it’s not for everyone
Terry Valentine: Did you ever dream about a place you never really recall being to before? A place that maybe only exists in your imagination? Some place far away, half remembered when you wake up. When you were there, though, you knew the language. You knew your way around. *That* was the sixties.
[pause]
No. It wasn't that either. It was just '66 and early '67. That's all there was.
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do
I'm half crazy all for the love of you
It won't be a stylish marriage
I can't afford a carriage
But you'll look sweet upon the seat
Of a bicycle built for two
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4697491-in-defending-trump-the-gop-attacks-the-justice-system/
… Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said little of the trial in a statement on X, noting Trump’s right to appeal, but she was one of the few sitting lawmakers to degenerate Trump and the way his “legal drama” has overshadowed the campaign...
Moldova is at risk
LibDems have a small but non-zero chance of winning more seats than the Tories and becoming the Official Opposition if the campaign goes their way; they should seize it while they can.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
Their forecast is pretty bearish for Lib Dems seats. 22 in total, just behind 24 for the SNP, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale staying blue by a whisker.
Cheadle is the northernmost English seat they give to the Lib Dems, followed by South Cambridgeshire.
Cost £352,000,000. Everyone likes a gamble. Loads of millionaires. Cost less than Rwanda.
Moldovan foces are very weak, but Romania is fairly well equipped.
Weighs the Labour vote too heavily in the Wards which come over from Penrith and the Border. Where the Labour vote was double the LD last time.
I expect those to fold to the LD. I'm not convinced it will even be close.
But I’m not imagining the very serious threat
https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/05/russias-hybrid-war-europe-moldovas-critical-next-15-months
https://visitukraine.today/blog/3450/transnistria-asks-russia-for-protection-does-this-mean-the-beginning-of-a-war-against-moldova
https://www.dw.com/en/transnistria-will-russias-next-war-be-in-moldova/a-68418058
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot
They still have old 152mm artillery which doesn't help with NATO interoperability.
guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
But still. Their map *is* pretty and functional.
They bankroll opposition politicians at a national level such as Voronin and Batrincea. This is experiencing, what Blair would have called, 'deferred success' at the moment.
What is working is bringing Gagauzia into the Rysskii Mir by integrating its banking system, installing a pro-Russian governor (with Ilon Shor as bagman) and allowing Gagauzians to claim Russian social benefits (and probably passports). The benefits are a powerful tool because Moldovan state pensions, etc. aren't worth shit.
No limit on how much excess tax you pay.
For some rates of winning, they got a social scientist and an economist to work out that it would increase tax take considerably - far more than the payouts.
The electorate are much more volatile than they used to be, there's much less growth for the government to steal the proceeds to buy people off, and, of course, events ...
Nailed on yellow peril GAIN - no value in the market.
However on the other side you can see the split loyalties in transnistria. There are prominent memorials to the disaster of Chernobyl and to the thousands of transnistrians that fought in the Soviet Afghanistan war. These are not celebrating the connection with Moscow
After my intense 5 hour trip where I learned everything I get the sense the average person just wants it all to go away and sell rose petal jam and dill pickle but of course wars are not decided by the average person or by tiny tiny countries
On Moldova and Transnistria politically, my impressions are 10 years out of date, but the anti-Russians were generally more ambivalent about any outside influence rather than pro EU. Presumably that's changed a bit. And as you say, there are quite a few pro-Russian pockets in Moldova itself.
Vote counting not until the 4th.
I'd go Lab 365, Con 213, LD 25, SNP 25, Others 4, NI 18
https://x.com/ej_mcguinness/status/1796852187252854914?s=61
He doesn’t have to invade. He has a sufficiently menacing garrison on transnistria to make a statement. At the same time he can destabilise Moldova via the transnistrian issue and the gaguazian separatists until Moldova becomes like Georgia - potentially - and becomes a Russian satellite even against the wishes of many of its people. And eu membership recedes into dreamland
Then, as now, you couldn't explain how these Russian forces would actually get there.
Perhaps you were echoing Marco Rubio:
https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1500471421390176263
Which is why they’re so burned by the idea of states like Ukraine or Moldova becoming EU members sometime in the future (both wish to) and perhaps improving.
I can see Sally Symington jumping from fourth to first here - especially if the Lib Dems put some effort in and Labour don't.
Liberal MPs, although few in number, seemed to be quite prominent when I was young.
Steel, Grimond, Wainwright, Beith, Big Cyril, Alton, Freud, Hughes, Penhaligon.
Having cut my political milk teeth in Con/Lab marginals in England and Wales, I attended uni in another Con/Lab marginal in Scotland. But I was living in a very safe (80+%) Labour ward. I got involved, happily posting leaflets, never getting the hang of lamppost banners and I realised something odd, there was no canvas returns. "Where are the canvas returns, I could put them into the computer" I asked. The experienced branch secretary replied "Oh, we don't need them, everyone here votes Labour."
I know that was a generation before 2015 but it stuck with me. When those areas that always voted Labour stopped voting Labour was it just too quick for the complacent attitude to adapt to actually fighting elections? Likewise, does Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Association have good voter ID, do they have the experience of facing a difficult election? I have no idea, but is it possible that we might be at a tipping point where Con seats are lost that shouldn't have been lost because the party just wasn't expecting that to be the battleground.
Moldova gets most of its power from Transnistra, generated with discount rate gas supplied by Russia, but they could now (in theory) turn off the switch.
There is no way they could get enough troops and equipment through that route for a full invasion so, barring a very unlikely series of blinding successes in Ukraine, there isn't going to be an invasion.
And no, I don't think that the Tories will get a negative number of seats!
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
No, the flags of South Ossettia and Abkhazia, the Georgian regions Putin successfully but bloodily won and is now absorbing into Russia. Even as he hopes to extend his grip on rGeorgia itself. That’s surely his new plan for Moldova
He doesn’t need to invade. He’s learned from Ukraine that this can go badly wrong. Ditto occupation
Far better to destabilise and absorb, with some bribery and a hint of military menace. Something closer to what the Chinese do - see how they took Hong Kong without a bullet fired
The Liberal Democrats - as with so many other issues we discuss and debate, it's complicated and defies simplistic analysis.
Case history - I was an activist in 1997 in the Carshalton & Wallington Constituency working for Tom Brake who was a local councillor. The 1994 local elections had seen the Conservatives drop to 3 councillors in Sutton and lose their group leader, one Mavis Peart. From then, I thought we had a chance of taking Nigel Foreman's seat - he was an old-fashioned Conservative MP, rarely seen in the constituency and largely ineffective.
Tom had cut this majority in 1992 to just under 10,000 and we needed a 9% swing.
Despite the party's vote going down nationally, we got a 12% swing and turned the Conservative majority into an LD majority of 2,300 despite the Labour vote (the Labour vote was also a local councillor) going up 6%. The LD vote went up 7% and the Conservative vote went down by 16% or just under a third - the national share fell from 43% to 31%.
If you think the Conservatives are polling 25% in England, that's just under half the 47% they polled in 2019 so starting with the presumption a 60% 2019 vote is now a 30-35% vote, who picks up the pieces - Reform, the Greens, the LDs, Labour? In all cases, yes and no and that's where your constituency variable comes in.
The local bookmaker in Carshalton offered 4/1 on Tom Brake winning in 1997 - I had been out and saw how much the Conservative vote was fragmenting so I had a sizeable bet and if you're going to play constituency markets, you need good local intel as to what's happening. The bookies didn't have that in 1997 - I heard similar tales of LDs winning big bets in Harrogate, Cheltenham and some other places - it's better now. but probably not up to speed with the ground war.
Turnout was 67% last time - some pollsters are showing it could be 75% (Techne were 68%).
So you have to apply differential turnout set against variable constituency factors to try to "guesstimate" the result in each of the 650 contests (and that's before boundary changes).
That's how the LD seat count goes up even if the national vote tally goes down and the greater fall in Conservative voters accentuates that efficiency especially if the ex-Conservatives either go straight to the LDs or stay at home. I noticed in 1997 some Conservatives went straight to Labour and the issue for Davey is those Conservatives who go straight to Labour - stopping off with Reform or staying at home is less of a problem in the seats the party needs to win.
However. If tactical voting were able to get them to 58 seats, then I expect it would also leave them some way above 9% of the vote nationally.
Its like a Balkan Wicker Man with a hint of very soft porn
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
This is rather stymied by the Lib Dem's current status as the fourth largest party at Westminster, rather than the third, as had been the case in the past. That is why winning more seats than the SNP is so important to the Lib Dems, and why Davey has resorted to some attention-seeking slapstick stunts.
The loss of third position in Parliament has hurt them a lot. I keep thinking that this only matters to obsessives who actually pay attention to PMQs but it goes beyond that. PMQs often gives the lead to the news channels about what they should be blethering about and it is almost never something raised by the Lib Dems.
Their NOTA status has not recovered from the coalition. And they risk losing out to a general desire to see the Tories go forth and multiply biggly. I can see Labour coming from third in a lot of seats.
Overall, I am with @Quincel I would be betting lower rather than higher. But if the Tories really do lose 300 seats all bets are off.
This is a much more intense, surprising and delightful moment than my visit to Mont St Michel
https://x.com/wutangkids/status/1796005546425790881