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Liberal Democrat: Recovery or Resurgence? – politicalbetting.com

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  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money

    And not an ounce of sympathy?

    Envy. I am in Gloucester.

    Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
    The docks aren't bad.
    Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
    Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
    Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.

    Except Essex.


    [Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
    I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
    Feel free to pop in for a beer some time, Boulay.

    All the places you mention are gorgeous, particularly Stanton which has a remarkable Church. Its clock has no face, because the shepherds couldn't see it anyway (and probably didn't know how to tell the time) but would know when the service was due by the ringing of the bells. It also has the original walls with a ledge at shoulder height. There were no pews in those days of course but the weak were allowed to go to the wall for support - hence the famous saying, the original connotation of which is slightly different.
    I want Stanton Court which is up for sale at the moment. My idea of heaven is living there and wandering across to my cricket ground and enjoying a cricket tea and many beers on an august afternoon.
    And you wouldbe a short (but steep) walk from The Mount, one of the best pubs in the area. It's a popular start point for the walk to Snowshill, another beauty spot. Frankly, it's all beautiful around there.

    Housing in the Cotswolds is not outrageously expensive, but prices definitely warmed up after Covid. Stow is very nice, despite the tourists. I can recommend both Upper and Lower Swell from personal experience. Don't bother with Guiting Power. It's wonderful, but most of the property is rented by the local Trust, and it is virtually impossible to buy. (Race fans will recognise it as the site of the racing yard where Twiston-Davies trains; the local pub, The Hollow Bottom is a must, race fan or not.)
    I used to love that the Mount had bricks on the bar full of Swan Vestas matches so you could spark up a fag in a unique way. It was also closed most of the time which wasn’t ideal. Had a few Sunday morning hacks via snowshill where you could tie up the horses at the pub and stop for a couple of beers which was one of life’s great joys. Like a soft English cowboy.

    I like the Slaughters but not a fan of Bourton on the Water as makes Broadway look like a secret beauty spot free of tourists.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    megasaur said:

    Omnium said:

    I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now.
    I was wrong.

    Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.

    Sunak won't win a debate. Truss became PM because he looked so shabby in the debate they had. I don't think he's awful, just rather hopeless.

    Such as it is, it's very bad news. There must be something beyond 'not this'!

    He looked sneery and patronising vs Truss - lots to sneer at and patronise of course. Starmer will be useless and it will be like a game where you blindfold two people and they have to find and then hit each other.
    My recollection was more of him whingeing - he was correctly pointing out that Truss was peddling a fantasy, but seemed to be doing so in a way that assumed he wouldn't be believed.

    Fine for building a platform from which to say "I told you so", but wouldn't it have been better if he'd used his supposedly-formidable talents to set out to win?
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    algarkirk said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT

    I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers

    The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip

    Last 9 words are a dactylic pentameter I believe. And there's a surviving fragment of Sappho which reads Spring...too long...turnip (this is absolutely true btw). Have you asked chatgpt to imagine it's a failed classics don touring Moldova?
    If they ever find the Penguinus Classicus paperback of the complete poems of Sappho at the library in Herculaneum (on which amazing work is being done on transcribing apparently unreadable remains) we could read the whole thing and it would be a turnip for the books.
    God wouldn't it be fantastic. But sod's law is what it is and we'll get another 10 million words of Aulus Gellius or bloody Galen. Actually we won't because dates. But the tragic fact is that a lot of classical "literature" is unbelievably boring.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    Foxy said:

    📊 Labour lead at 24pts
    Westminster voting intention

    LAB: 45% (-)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    REF: 12% (-2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @techneUK, 31 May

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1796963590408151336?t=gvZdhFO2yx8sB3yzJpMapg&s=19

    First one of the evening.

    Hmm, well that's not going to move the dial.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,449

    @SeaShantyIrish2

    'Which makes me wonder: does PB's St John, have a relation named St Neot?'

    Nio, but he is related to St Tone, the spiritual presence of the former PM.

    Here's a question.

    Cornwall is full of St-Places. Which kind of makes sense- the landscape is pure Noom. Saints go there to be strange and holy.

    But then, in a fairly close cluster, you have St Albans, St Neots and St Ives (the one where you can get kits, cats, sacks and wives by the seven). And nice though those places are, they don't have Noom. They're just pleasant.

    What gives?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167

    Is Opinium really due at 8pm,only I'm hungry and need to fix some supper.

    You shouldn't have broken your supper in the first place.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    The hype wasn't worth the wait. I was expecting a single figure Labour lead.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,861
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money

    And not an ounce of sympathy?

    Envy. I am in Gloucester.

    Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
    The docks aren't bad.
    Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
    Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
    Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.

    Except Essex.


    [Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
    Saffron Walden, Matching Green, Maldon, Upshire, Epping Upland, Waltham on the Naze, Colchester, Epping Forest, Leigh, Coggeshall, plenty of picturesque and historic parts of Essex
    Thaxted, Layer Marney, High Easter, Stebbing, Blackmore, Stondon Massey, Chignal Smealey, Wendens Ambo, Tolleshunt d'Arcy, Willingale Spain. What a neglected county. And cricket at Chelmsford.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,472

    Dura_Ace said:

    I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now.
    I was wrong.

    Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.

    I don't think the debate plays to the strengths of SKS. He is, what my late mother would describe as, a "Big Wooden Bugger". His talents are remorseless aggregation of marginal gains and party management not snappy comebacks and the piercing bon mot.

    Sunak doesn't appear to have any discernible strengths apart from that one time he was able to fit in a suitcase so he could do that robbery in Ocean's Eleven. The debates probably won't change much.
    Depends.

    Most likely, Starmer is boring, Sunak jabs and gets nowhere, it's judged as a no-score draw. Which suits Labour fine, even if it's a bit disappointing. (Something something didn't seal the deal.)

    But there's a non-trivial chance that Rishi has an outbreak of the tetchies while everyone is watching. I mean, we all know it's what the does from time to time, but I'm not sure the public have clocked.
    Sunak will resort to using the ghost of Jeremy Corbyn to spread fear among the populace, as in "you wanted Jezza to be PM and willingly sat in his Cabinet".
    To which SKS will reply "Is that it?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121

    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    19m
    EXCL: Sir Keir Starmer unveils a manifesto pledge to cut the number of immigrants coming to Britain!

    He makes the landmark commitment in excl interview with Sun on Sunday.

    Labour leader says he will ban "bad bosses" hiring overseas & train more Brits
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.

    In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.

    If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region

    We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.

    You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
    If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.

    It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
    Houses are certainly not cheap here in Oxfordshire. Earlier this afternoon, I was carrying an orange diamond stakeboard and about to put it up when a chap from the (expensive) house next to it spoke to me. He pointed out it was a shared driveway, so he thought he should also have a say.

    I apologised that we hadn't known that and offered to remove it. He considered for a second and then said that although he'd not have requested it himself, he had no issues with it or us and I should let it stay. He added, "But if it was a Tory one, you'd have been told where to shove it."

    The difference with 2019 is noticeable and positive - and yet we did well around here in 2019, anyway!
    A truly remarkable (and unrepresentative) percentage of PB posters appear to be Lib Dem activists.
    I fully expect now lib dems to have even less mp's after the next ge....but hey its greener which they love instead of a minibus they can get their mps in a smart car
    That’s pretty decent value odds wise - worth a go.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,449
    Labour is on 45% – up four points on last weekend, while the Conservatives are down 2 on 25%. Reform is up on one on 11%, the Lib Dems down 2 on 8%, and the Greens down one point on 6%.

    That's fairly Jesus Wept-worthy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,766
    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466

    The hype wasn't worth the wait. I was expecting a single figure Labour lead.
    Looks like another nail in the coffin to me.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Labour is on 45% – up four points on last weekend, while the Conservatives are down 2 on 25%. Reform is up on one on 11%, the Lib Dems down 2 on 8%, and the Greens down one point on 6%.

    That's fairly Jesus Wept-worthy.
    Very high Labour score for Opinium, Tories have been 25 to 27 for EVAH
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...



    David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
    I think a majority of Tory MPs voted against. It passed on opposition votes.

    It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
    I couldn't see the point in marriage. But after 21 years we made things official. To be next of kin.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    The huge one inch gap between the two? Starmer is not exactly second row material himself.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,472

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That being Opinium, I think we can come to the conclusion that the Tories are well and truly fucked.
    Now I can watch the football, having achieved peace of mind.
  • novanova Posts: 695

    Labour is on 45% – up four points on last weekend, while the Conservatives are down 2 on 25%. Reform is up on one on 11%, the Lib Dems down 2 on 8%, and the Greens down one point on 6%.

    That's fairly Jesus Wept-worthy.
    Their last poll before the election was called was an 18pt lead - just two weeks earlier. Perhaps the 14pt one last week was the outlier. 16 - 16 - 16 - 18 - 14 - 20 were the last six.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,032
    The Tories are utterly buggered. I mean - if you’re going for a July election, at least be ready. And understand the sheer anger of the electorate …
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,473

    Labour is on 45% – up four points on last weekend, while the Conservatives are down 2 on 25%. Reform is up on one on 11%, the Lib Dems down 2 on 8%, and the Greens down one point on 6%.

    That's fairly Jesus Wept-worthy.
    Opinium have been consistent in showing 14 to 18 point leads all this calendar year.
    So 20 is pretty notable.
    I did say after the Jesus Wept, that meant a lead of 10 or less. Or one in the twenties.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
    What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?

    image
    So why do the Tories allow so much of it?
    Williamglenn is surely making the argument for negotiating freedom of movement with the EU.

    EEA/EFTA, here we come?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282


    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    19m
    EXCL: Sir Keir Starmer unveils a manifesto pledge to cut the number of immigrants coming to Britain!

    He makes the landmark commitment in excl interview with Sun on Sunday.

    Labour leader says he will ban "bad bosses" hiring overseas & train more Brits

    Would Starmer describe himself as a national socialist?
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489
    I have been reading up on the prospect of a second trump presidency.... and it is horrifying. 10% tarrifs on all imports, exit nato or transform it into an extortionate marketing platform, deployment of the military on homeland to deport 11 million illegals using camps, prison sentences for abortions on par with murder. They will never get rid of him - not ever

    Tell you what. If Trump becomes president the schedule for rejoining the EU moves up by a decade... we will be in in a jiffy...


    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-second-term-presidency-united-states-tear-europe-eu-apart/

    https://www.theatlantic.com/if-trump-wins/

    https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,473
    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    The only larger leads with Opinium were 21% and 27% in October 2022.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Though better for bluewall MPs than redwall MPs as the LDs are down even if Labour are up
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    Labour is on 45% – up four points on last weekend, while the Conservatives are down 2 on 25%. Reform is up on one on 11%, the Lib Dems down 2 on 8%, and the Greens down one point on 6%.

    That's fairly Jesus Wept-worthy.
    Is it though? It’s net 1% movement between blocs. Just a bit of shuffling.

    Jesus probably just had hayfever.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited June 1

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...



    David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
    I think a majority of Tory MPs voted against. It passed on opposition votes.

    It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
    I couldn't see the point in marriage. But after 21 years we made things official. To be next of kin.
    Does you wife know you use her picture in your Avatar?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,472
    dixiedean said:

    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.

    Gap is showing signs of widening, actually.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880

    Foxy said:

    📊 Labour lead at 24pts
    Westminster voting intention

    LAB: 45% (-)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    REF: 12% (-2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @techneUK, 31 May

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1796963590408151336?t=gvZdhFO2yx8sB3yzJpMapg&s=19

    First one of the evening.

    Hmm, well that's not going to move the dial.
    Tories at least up with Techne though unlike Opinium
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,390


    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    19m
    EXCL: Sir Keir Starmer unveils a manifesto pledge to cut the number of immigrants coming to Britain!

    He makes the landmark commitment in excl interview with Sun on Sunday.

    Labour leader says he will ban "bad bosses" hiring overseas & train more Brits

    Would Starmer describe himself as a national socialist?
    QTWTAIN
  • novanova Posts: 695
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    @SeaShantyIrish2

    'Which makes me wonder: does PB's St John, have a relation named St Neot?'

    Nio, but he is related to St Tone, the spiritual presence of the former PM.

    Here's a question.

    Cornwall is full of St-Places. Which kind of makes sense- the landscape is pure Noom. Saints go there to be strange and holy.

    But then, in a fairly close cluster, you have St Albans, St Neots and St Ives (the one where you can get kits, cats, sacks and wives by the seven). And nice though those places are, they don't have Noom. They're just pleasant.

    What gives?
    This land was too poor to make Eden
    The granite and sea left no choice
    Though visions of Heaven possessed us
    When John Wesley gave us a voice

    Also there's a bizarre village near liskeard called St Ive which comes in 4 separate sections despite having about 57 inhabitants

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Ive

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    edited June 1

    I have been reading up on the prospect of a second trump presidency.... and it is horrifying. 10% tarrifs on all imports, exit nato or transform it into an extortionate marketing platform, deployment of the military on homeland to deport 11 million illegals using camps, prison sentences for abortions on par with murder. They will never get rid of him - not ever

    Tell you what. If Trump becomes president the schedule for rejoining the EU moves up by a decade... we will be in in a jiffy...

    What do you think about the programme of the new Dutch government?

    https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/16/four-right-wing-dutch-parties-to-form-government-in-coalition-deal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    I have been reading up on the prospect of a second trump presidency.... and it is horrifying. 10% tarrifs on all imports, exit nato or transform it into an extortionate marketing platform, deployment of the military on homeland to deport 11 million illegals using camps, prison sentences for abortions on par with murder. They will never get rid of him - not ever

    Tell you what. If Trump becomes president the schedule for rejoining the EU moves up by a decade... we will be in in a jiffy...


    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-second-term-presidency-united-states-tear-europe-eu-apart/

    https://www.theatlantic.com/if-trump-wins/

    https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/

    Death penalty for misspelling tariff
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    boulay said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.

    They do offer reasonable quality,although quite dull,clothes at a fair price on most high streets so there will always be a market - I guess SKS is buying most of their dark blue shirts and centrist dad trainers so they should be ok for now.
    But what comes Next?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    nova said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
    I always assumed he was around 6'.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Yes, you would expect any adjustment to unwind.

    Pretty consistent picture across the board now.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    edited June 1
    We expected the polls to come together as we proceeded with don't knows coming off the fence and pullling the larger leads down.

    Well (with one notable exception) they are coming together. But it is the lower margins moving up. That is in line with the FON poll which found that assigning the don't knows only moved the needle 1%. I suspect their methodology is favouring Lab too much but that doesn't alter this particular finding.

    For context just a reminder that in the 1997 campaign ICM had a poll that had the Lab lead crashing to just 5%. This Opinium poll is probably at the Lab end of their margin of error but then the previous one was almost certainly at the Con end.

    That haystack of straws in the wind begins to resemble hurricane conditions
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    megasaur said:

    boulay said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.

    They do offer reasonable quality,although quite dull,clothes at a fair price on most high streets so there will always be a market - I guess SKS is buying most of their dark blue shirts and centrist dad trainers so they should be ok for now.
    But what comes Next?
    White Stuff.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    megasaur said:

    Omnium said:

    I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now.
    I was wrong.

    Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.

    Sunak won't win a debate. Truss became PM because he looked so shabby in the debate they had. I don't think he's awful, just rather hopeless.

    Such as it is, it's very bad news. There must be something beyond 'not this'!

    He looked sneery and patronising vs Truss - lots to sneer at and patronise of course. Starmer will be useless and it will be like a game where you blindfold two people and they have to find and then hit each other.
    Starmer may have a slight advantage as less likely to punch himself in the face.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,473
    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Presumably they aren't expressing an intention to vote Tory?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    edited June 1
    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    deleted
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
    What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?

    image
    Queers for Palestine, but not Palestine for Queers, it would appear.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122

    megasaur said:

    Omnium said:

    I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now.
    I was wrong.

    Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.

    Sunak won't win a debate. Truss became PM because he looked so shabby in the debate they had. I don't think he's awful, just rather hopeless.

    Such as it is, it's very bad news. There must be something beyond 'not this'!

    He looked sneery and patronising vs Truss - lots to sneer at and patronise of course. Starmer will be useless and it will be like a game where you blindfold two people and they have to find and then hit each other.
    Starmer may have a slight advantage as less likely to punch himself in the face.
    Starmer will be verbose and wooden, but Prime Ministerial.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,317
    edited June 1
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Sunak needs to lean into it.

    He should get Tony Hart to introduce him, and open the debate by emerging from a small wooden box.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Presumably they aren't expressing an intention to vote Tory?
    Exactly.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466

    nova said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
    I always assumed he was around 6'.
    No, I've met him and he's about the same size and build as me - 5'8" and a little overweight.
  • novanova Posts: 695
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Presumably they aren't expressing an intention to vote Tory?
    I think that was what they said - it swung to Labour once Tories started expressing a preference for other parties.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,449

    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    Fuck.
    If it helps you take your mind off things...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    I’ve changed my mind on the election after reading the replies to a tweet by meteorologist Chris Page about this May having been the warmest on record in the UK. Which it was, largely due to very mild nights.

    Quite something. Those reply guys have alternative facts. Oh boy.

    Nailed on Reform majority.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Yes, you would expect any adjustment to unwind.

    Pretty consistent picture across the board now.
    Don't forget everyone that 4 or 5 weeks before GE2017 we had polls showing CON 20%+ clear and talk of 200+ majorities.

    We don't know yet. But LAB are clearly huge favourites.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    15m
    Not sure about the scale of the shift. But it confirms what we’ve seen elsewhere. Also reinforces what I’ve written tonight. Sunak’s Jeremy Corbyn core-vote strategy is backfiring disastrously. And if he doesn’t do something, his party is heading for oblivion.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1796980136664817769
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167


    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    19m
    EXCL: Sir Keir Starmer unveils a manifesto pledge to cut the number of immigrants coming to Britain!

    He makes the landmark commitment in excl interview with Sun on Sunday.

    Labour leader says he will ban "bad bosses" hiring overseas & train more Brits

    Would Starmer describe himself as a national socialist?
    Would you?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468

    Vaguely related to the topic: After the LibDem leader (Paddy Ashdown, if I recall correctly) met George W. Bush, he said that Bush didn't seem much like the picture he had gotten from your media.

    That strikes me as a powerful criticism of the Guardian, the BBC, and their ideological allies.

    And, the feeling that American leaders, especially Republicans, are rarely treated fairly by foreign media is one of the many, many reasons for the rise of Trump.

    Is it? Lots of politicians are reportedly quite different in person to their public image. John Major was apparently charming and personable up close (as Edwina Currie can testify), but you got a different picture from the media. Ian Paisley was apparently very helpful to his Catholic constituents at a one-on-one level, but is that how the world saw him? So maybe it’s not some terrible foreign media bias against the Republicans, that’s just individuals in person can differ from their media personas and indeed their policy decisions.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500

    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Yes, you would expect any adjustment to unwind.

    Pretty consistent picture across the board now.
    Though a couple of threads ago, we had plenty of people saying they expected the nowcasters' numbers to converge towards those produced by the forecasters over the course of the campaign.

    As you say, Opinium have stated that they expect the opposite might happen - I guess now we're just waiting for the next JLP poll (due on Tuesday?) to see if they're producing a similar level of unwind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122

    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    Fuck.
    Glad to have you back in the room. Any forecasts?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    boulay said:

    megasaur said:

    boulay said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.

    They do offer reasonable quality,although quite dull,clothes at a fair price on most high streets so there will always be a market - I guess SKS is buying most of their dark blue shirts and centrist dad trainers so they should be ok for now.
    But what comes Next?
    White Stuff.
    FCUK
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Anyone seen this Opinium nonsense tonight? They need to take a look under the bonnet. There is no way that can possibly have happened given the week Labour have had.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...



    David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
    I think a majority of Tory MPs voted against. It passed on opposition votes.

    It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
    I couldn't see the point in marriage. But after 21 years we made things official. To be next of kin.
    Does you wife know you use her picture in your Avatar?
    Another day, another girl.

    I had a ginger avatar a few days ago, especially for TSE.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    nova said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
    I always assumed he was around 6'.
    No, I've met him and he's about the same size and build as me - 5'8" and a little overweight.
    It’s one of those things where you always think famous people are taller than they are - I’m amazed he’s 5’8” but it’s the same with sportsmen and actors where if you are over 6’ the chances are you are taller than 90% of them.

    Having thought, as a small child, that Leonard Parkin was inside the tv reading the news I should have understood how small famous people are but there you go.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099

    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    deleted
    I think you mean, fucked...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    TimS said:

    I’ve changed my mind on the election after reading the replies to a tweet by meteorologist Chris Page about this May having been the warmest on record in the UK. Which it was, largely due to very mild nights.

    Quite something. Those reply guys have alternative facts. Oh boy.

    Nailed on Reform majority.

    It’s been an odd month and I get why people think it’s not been warm overall, but of course the temperature at night counts as much as the day time does. It’s not been inspiring, and the relief at some blue skies is palpable.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    AlsoLei said:

    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Yes, you would expect any adjustment to unwind.

    Pretty consistent picture across the board now.
    Though a couple of threads ago, we had plenty of people saying they expected the nowcasters' numbers to converge towards those produced by the forecasters over the course of the campaign.

    As you say, Opinium have stated that they expect the opposite might happen - I guess now we're just waiting for the next JLP poll (due on Tuesday?) to see if they're producing a similar level of unwind.
    That looked like an outlier. That's legitimate. One in twenty polls will be off the scale. YouGove gave Labour +30 not so long ago, and that was definitely an outlier.

    The broader picture does look gloomy for the Tories though.

    Not much else to say.

    Perhaps Leon can send us some pics.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,109


    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    19m
    EXCL: Sir Keir Starmer unveils a manifesto pledge to cut the number of immigrants coming to Britain!

    He makes the landmark commitment in excl interview with Sun on Sunday.

    Labour leader says he will ban "bad bosses" hiring overseas & train more Brits

    I’m not sure what legal mechanism you could use to prevent hiring from overseas. Short of saying that you can’t employee someone who isn’t already in the country for non trivial amounts of time. A slow acting work visa? But that would utterly stuffed any skilled immigration.
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67
    megasaur said:

    @SeaShantyIrish2

    'Which makes me wonder: does PB's St John, have a relation named St Neot?'

    Nio, but he is related to St Tone, the spiritual presence of the former PM.

    Here's a question.

    Cornwall is full of St-Places. Which kind of makes sense- the landscape is pure Noom. Saints go there to be strange and holy.

    But then, in a fairly close cluster, you have St Albans, St Neots and St Ives (the one where you can get kits, cats, sacks and wives by the seven). And nice though those places are, they don't have Noom. They're just pleasant.

    What gives?
    This land was too poor to make Eden
    The granite and sea left no choice
    Though visions of Heaven possessed us
    When John Wesley gave us a voice

    Also there's a bizarre village near liskeard called St Ive which comes in 4 separate sections despite having about 57 inhabitants

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Ive

    Cousin Jack, Show of Hands.

    Proper folkie here. I've just logged on quickly, to check the Opinium poll, during the interval, waiting for Richard Thompson in Stoke.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...



    David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
    I think a majority of Tory MPs voted against. It passed on opposition votes.

    It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
    I couldn't see the point in marriage. But after 21 years we made things official. To be next of kin.
    Does you wife know you use her picture in your Avatar?
    Another day, another girl.

    I had a ginger avatar a few days ago, especially for TSE.
    Your midlife crisis is visible from space.

    Hal Phillip Walker ain’t no Conservative 🫡
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167

    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    deleted
    That's a shame. I wanted to read your rationale as to why this was a good poll for the Conservatives.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
    What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?

    image
    Although one would expect that the people most likely to emigrate from a country would be the ones who felt their views were out of line.

    The most obvious example, of course, is the earliest emigrants to the US from the UK. They went because their views were out of line with mainstream UK Christian belief.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    boulay said:

    nova said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
    I always assumed he was around 6'.
    No, I've met him and he's about the same size and build as me - 5'8" and a little overweight.
    It’s one of those things where you always think famous people are taller than they are - I’m amazed he’s 5’8” but it’s the same with sportsmen and actors where if you are over 6’ the chances are you are taller than 90% of them.

    Having thought, as a small child, that Leonard Parkin was inside the tv reading the news I should have understood how small famous people are but there you go.
    Is that really true of sportsmen? I’d be surprised. Height is an advantage in many sports (not just basketball). Tennis players are tall, rugby players, bowlers in cricket tend to be and so on. I guess jockeys will drag the average down, as will racing car drivers, but 90% under six foot?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556

    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    deleted
    That's a shame. I wanted to read your rationale as to why this was a good poll for the Conservatives.
    Well it’s not “Conservatives 0%” which is something.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,473
    edited June 1

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...



    David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
    I think a majority of Tory MPs voted against. It passed on opposition votes.

    It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
    I couldn't see the point in marriage. But after 21 years we made things official. To be next of kin.
    Does you wife know you use her picture in your Avatar?
    Another day, another girl.

    I had a ginger avatar a few days ago, especially for TSE.
    Your midlife crisis is visible from space.

    Hal Phillip Walker ain’t no Conservative 🫡
    Precious few in the UK are these days.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    nova said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    20 pointer with opinium 45 to 25 (plus 4 minus 2)

    That's a shockingly bad poll for the Tories.
    Opinium did explain that their new methodology could cause an apparent swing to Labour as undecided Tory 2019 voters start to express an intention.
    Presumably they aren't expressing an intention to vote Tory?
    I think that was what they said - it swung to Labour once Tories started expressing a preference for other parties.
    Yes. They'd built in swingback into their model. With swingback failing to materialise they are moving towards the sort of Labour lead we are seeing from other pollsters.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    The split of 2019 Tories, with changes from the last Opinium poll, is now:
    CON 56% (-4)
    LAB 18% (+6)
    RFM 20% (+1)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167

    boulay said:

    megasaur said:

    boulay said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.

    They do offer reasonable quality,although quite dull,clothes at a fair price on most high streets so there will always be a market - I guess SKS is buying most of their dark blue shirts and centrist dad trainers so they should be ok for now.
    But what comes Next?
    White Stuff.
    FCUK
    No need for that, Fat Face.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    NEW THREAD

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,473

    boulay said:

    nova said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
    I always assumed he was around 6'.
    No, I've met him and he's about the same size and build as me - 5'8" and a little overweight.
    It’s one of those things where you always think famous people are taller than they are - I’m amazed he’s 5’8” but it’s the same with sportsmen and actors where if you are over 6’ the chances are you are taller than 90% of them.

    Having thought, as a small child, that Leonard Parkin was inside the tv reading the news I should have understood how small famous people are but there you go.
    Is that really true of sportsmen? I’d be surprised. Height is an advantage in many sports (not just basketball). Tennis players are tall, rugby players, bowlers in cricket tend to be and so on. I guess jockeys will drag the average down, as will racing car drivers, but 90% under six foot?
    Rugby League players don't tend to be tall. It makes being tackled easier and tackling harder. They tend to be short for their weight.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468

    I have been reading up on the prospect of a second trump presidency.... and it is horrifying. 10% tarrifs on all imports, exit nato or transform it into an extortionate marketing platform, deployment of the military on homeland to deport 11 million illegals using camps, prison sentences for abortions on par with murder. They will never get rid of him - not ever

    Tell you what. If Trump becomes president the schedule for rejoining the EU moves up by a decade... we will be in in a jiffy...

    What do you think about the programme of the new Dutch government?

    https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/16/four-right-wing-dutch-parties-to-form-government-in-coalition-deal
    It’s a big, significant shift for Dutch politics, but it’s not as extreme as Trump. No 10% tariffs, no leaving NATO, commitment to support Ukraine, no home deployment of military, no limits on abortion, no head of state who isn’t a serial sexual assaulter and fraudster.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,366

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    15m
    Not sure about the scale of the shift. But it confirms what we’ve seen elsewhere. Also reinforces what I’ve written tonight. Sunak’s Jeremy Corbyn core-vote strategy is backfiring disastrously. And if he doesn’t do something, his party is heading for oblivion.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1796980136664817769

    Because of what he's doing, his party deserves oblivion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
    What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?

    image
    Queers for Palestine, but not Palestine for Queers, it would appear.
    Nor Israelis either, albeit a much narrower margin. Indeed Latin America and the Philippines look far more LGBT friendly than the Middle East and Africa
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,473

    The split of 2019 Tories, with changes from the last Opinium poll, is now:
    CON 56% (-4)
    LAB 18% (+6)
    RFM 20% (+1)

    So.
    That unusually high level of ex-Tory don't knows?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,058
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money

    And not an ounce of sympathy?

    Envy. I am in Gloucester.

    Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
    The docks aren't bad.
    Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
    Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
    Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.

    Except Essex.


    [Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
    Saffron Walden, Matching Green, Maldon, Upshire, Epping Upland, Waltham on the Naze, Colchester, Epping Forest, Leigh, Coggeshall, plenty of picturesque and historic parts of Essex
    You forgot Matching Tye (and handkerchief). But you also forgot Ugley. Is there really and Ugley Women’s Institute?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    For those who think the Tories will make a bit of a recovery, Bet 365 are offering 9/2 that their final vote share will be between 28% and 31.99%. That seems quite generous odds; I'm almost tempted.

    I got on that on Wednesday
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    dixiedean said:

    The split of 2019 Tories, with changes from the last Opinium poll, is now:
    CON 56% (-4)
    LAB 18% (+6)
    RFM 20% (+1)

    So.
    That unusually high level of ex-Tory don't knows?
    Is declining, they're making up their mind. And the percentage of those sticking with the Tories is also declining. It's just one poll, but it's as bad as it could be.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,058

    Cookie said:

    Since pb.com appears to be in cheerful wittering mode (and hooray for that), I will volunteer that in a little while, for the third and final time, I will read the final chapter of The House at Pooh Corner to a daughter. I may not be much use for anything later.

    Still chokes me up today
    Me too.

    My son, who had a knack for living in beautiful places, went to college close to Ashdown Forest. We played pooh-sticks on the bridge. It's still there.
    Been there. Done that. Our daughter won!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    I currently live in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, which used to be fairly firmly Conservative. Unlike many constituencies however, in 2019 the Conservative majority reduced considerably, with the new Conservative MP, Anthony Browne, having just a 4.3% margin from the Lib Dems.

    South Cambridgeshire council (borders not coincident with the constituency) is very strongly Lib Dem (25 majority).

    The constituency has been considerably redrawn for this general election, and am I now in the new St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire constituency.

    Interestingly, Anthony Browne is standing in this general election, but not in his old seat of South Cambridgeshire, but in the new seat of St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire.

    I still expect him to lose, and the Lib Dems to gain St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire. Because of the way the constituencies have been split, I have no idea who will win South Cambridgeshire...

    The Economist - who only give the Lib Dems 22 seats - have South Cambridgeshire as a Lib Dem gain, 10pp ahead of Labour and Tories tied on 25%.

    They forecast St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire as a tight Conservative hold 29-28-24. To be honest, a lot of the Economist numbers look really implausible.
    What do The Economist know?

    A lot of mediocrities trading on their brand.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    DougSeal said:

    Anyone seen this Opinium nonsense tonight? They need to take a look under the bonnet. There is no way that can possibly have happened given the week Labour have had.

    I think it has just gone from one end of the margin of error to the other with perhaps a minor movement to Lab. A reminder that the 14% poll was itself a movement in the Con direction which looked very 'interesting' given the circumstances. Much of this movement is just a correction of that. The inside baseball stuff of the last week just isn't going to move the needle in the Con direction. Most folk lost what little interest they ever had in it days ago. Meanwhile campaign days are just being frittered away.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    I should note that my own seat remains staunchly blue even in the worst of these forecasts for the Cons.

    Could leave our MP perfectly positioned to ascend to the leadership as is her God-given right

    Cometh the hour cometh the Truss.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    edited June 1

    boulay said:

    nova said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if the debate will be artfully composed and shot to avoid accentuating the height difference. Or maybe Sunak will use that little stool he has to get in and out of his many helicopters.

    Isn't Starmer only 5'8", so it's not as bad as it could be.
    I always assumed he was around 6'.
    No, I've met him and he's about the same size and build as me - 5'8" and a little overweight.
    It’s one of those things where you always think famous people are taller than they are - I’m amazed he’s 5’8” but it’s the same with sportsmen and actors where if you are over 6’ the chances are you are taller than 90% of them.

    Having thought, as a small child, that Leonard Parkin was inside the tv reading the news I should have understood how small famous people are but there you go.
    Is that really true of sportsmen? I’d be surprised. Height is an advantage in many sports (not just basketball). Tennis players are tall, rugby players, bowlers in cricket tend to be and so on. I guess jockeys will drag the average down, as will racing car drivers, but 90% under six foot?
    That's only 183-ish cm, surely that can't possibly be 90th %ile for men?

    Mind you, it could be worse. Here's little Davey Cameron (185 cm) being overshadowed by Edi Rama (201 cm) in Tirana last week:




    Wee Dave looks fairly unwell - a night on the rakia, or simply the stress from working with Rishi?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    dixiedean said:

    Gap just isn't showing signs of closing as of yet.

    But... 2017...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,058

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.

    It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.

    It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:

    “Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]

    David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.

    I have given one example from history but there could be many others.

    It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.

    So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.

    Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
    What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?

    image
    No India?
    So, only 16% approve of Putin’s lifestyle choices, and 74% disapprove. Do our Saturday trolls approve or disapprove?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    I'm not sure LAB will get more than 40%. But they can still get 375 on that
This discussion has been closed.