I somehow thought the whole Putin is in transnistria thing was an exaggeration. It isn’t. The Russian troops are obvious and brazen and their armoured cars proudly fly the Russian flag
He is at the gates of Europe. He is occupying land much closer than eastern Ukraine
I suspect they have a "seven days to the Rhine" style plan prepared for recapturing Eastern Europe.
I also suspect that, like the original plan, it will end in all out nuclear war before the seven days are up, just as the original plan would have. So they won't.
Wouid we defend Moldova though? With NATO troops? I doubt it. Moldova would fall in a couple of days to Putin’s army and it would be over before we’d begun to think about a response. Putin has a good base in transnistria. The locals all speak Russian and they have clearly loyalty to Russia. It was part of the Russian empire. They’ve just built a huge statue of catherine the great. The same goes for gauguzia in the south of Moldova. A potential breakaway republic that favours Moscow already
Moldova is at risk
At the moment it would be impossible for Russia to supply transnistria. Various Western assistance is being provided to Moldova so that is better placed to deal with the Russian forces already there.
Hence the presence of Blinken when I arrived of course
One of the curios you might want to look at is Cobasna. It's allegedly the largest ammo dump in Europe and sits at the north of Transnistria packed full of Russian troops. Evreybody is nervous about it as if it explodes it will be quite a bang allegedly as big as Hiroshima.
What unnerved me as we exited transnistria (via a different route to the main road in) was that we went through the transnistrian border control. Passed the transnistrian flag, smiled at the bored guards, got our passports checked casually, so then I thought that’s it we’re through and THEN we passed the Russian soldiers - armoured cars, tooled up troops, flags flying. Looking much alert and aggressively positioned closer to Moldova than the transnistrians!
Dunno. Maybe I was imagining it. But it looked at the very least like a provocative statement .
My guide was noticeably discomfited by the experience
I remember you telling us two years ago that Russia was about to occupy Moldova.
Then, as now, you couldn't explain how these Russian forces would actually get there.
Russian troops stationed in PMR now get there through Chisinau airport, which the Molodovan government conspicuously fails to do anything about.
There is no way they could get enough troops and equipment through that route for a full invasion so, barring a very unlikely series of blinding successes in Ukraine, there isn't going to be an invasion.
In the centre of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, they fly the flag of Transnistria between two other flags. Not Russia or Moldova or the EU
No, the flags of South Ossettia and Abkhazia, the Georgian regions Putin successfully but bloodily won and is now absorbing into Russia. Even as he hopes to extend his grip on rGeorgia itself. That’s surely his new plan for Moldova
He doesn’t need to invade. He’s learned from Ukraine that this can go badly wrong. Ditto occupation
Far better to destabilise and absorb, with some bribery and a hint of military menace. Something closer to what the Chinese do - see how they took Hong Kong without a bullet fired
Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
I could get to seven, but that's only because I had done that trawl around a couple of days ago to work out which three Lib Dem MPs had notionally lost their seats to boundary changes (Stone, Chamberlain and Farron).
Thinking about the previous thread a bit: I think that the term "Extinction Level Event" is a bit silly, there will always be right wing voters and some sort of Conservative Party to represent them. As the Conservative Party exists, there's no real need to start something new to do exactly the same job. That being said though, it's worth looking at the other "Extinction Level Event" in recent memory and that's Scottish Labour in 2015.
Having cut my political milk teeth in Con/Lab marginals in England and Wales, I attended uni in another Con/Lab marginal in Scotland. But I was living in a very safe (80+%) Labour ward. I got involved, happily posting leaflets, never getting the hang of lamppost banners and I realised something odd, there was no canvas returns. "Where are the canvas returns, I could put them into the computer" I asked. The experienced branch secretary replied "Oh, we don't need them, everyone here votes Labour."
I know that was a generation before 2015 but it stuck with me. When those areas that always voted Labour stopped voting Labour was it just too quick for the complacent attitude to adapt to actually fighting elections? Likewise, does Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Association have good voter ID, do they have the experience of facing a difficult election? I have no idea, but is it possible that we might be at a tipping point where Con seats are lost that shouldn't have been lost because the party just wasn't expecting that to be the battleground.
The Liberal Democrats - as with so many other issues we discuss and debate, it's complicated and defies simplistic analysis.
Case history - I was an activist in 1997 in the Carshalton & Wallington Constituency working for Tom Brake who was a local councillor. The 1994 local elections had seen the Conservatives drop to 3 councillors in Sutton and lose their group leader, one Mavis Peart. From then, I thought we had a chance of taking Nigel Foreman's seat - he was an old-fashioned Conservative MP, rarely seen in the constituency and largely ineffective.
Tom had cut this majority in 1992 to just under 10,000 and we needed a 9% swing.
Despite the party's vote going down nationally, we got a 12% swing and turned the Conservative majority into an LD majority of 2,300 despite the Labour vote (the Labour vote was also a local councillor) going up 6%. The LD vote went up 7% and the Conservative vote went down by 16% or just under a third - the national share fell from 43% to 31%.
If you think the Conservatives are polling 25% in England, that's just under half the 47% they polled in 2019 so starting with the presumption a 60% 2019 vote is now a 30-35% vote, who picks up the pieces - Reform, the Greens, the LDs, Labour? In all cases, yes and no and that's where your constituency variable comes in.
The local bookmaker in Carshalton offered 4/1 on Tom Brake winning in 1997 - I had been out and saw how much the Conservative vote was fragmenting so I had a sizeable bet and if you're going to play constituency markets, you need good local intel as to what's happening. The bookies didn't have that in 1997 - I heard similar tales of LDs winning big bets in Harrogate, Cheltenham and some other places - it's better now. but probably not up to speed with the ground war.
Turnout was 67% last time - some pollsters are showing it could be 75% (Techne were 68%).
So you have to apply differential turnout set against variable constituency factors to try to "guesstimate" the result in each of the 650 contests (and that's before boundary changes).
That's how the LD seat count goes up even if the national vote tally goes down and the greater fall in Conservative voters accentuates that efficiency especially if the ex-Conservatives either go straight to the LDs or stay at home. I noticed in 1997 some Conservatives went straight to Labour and the issue for Davey is those Conservatives who go straight to Labour - stopping off with Reform or staying at home is less of a problem in the seats the party needs to win.
On thread, one additional point regarding the likely LD seat total.
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
Yes. However. If tactical voting were able to get them to 58 seats, then I expect it would also leave them some way above 9% of the vote nationally.
Thinking about the previous thread a bit: I think that the term "Extinction Level Event" is a bit silly, there will always be right wing voters and some sort of Conservative Party to represent them. As the Conservative Party exists, there's no real need to start something new to do exactly the same job. That being said though, it's worth looking at the other "Extinction Level Event" in recent memory and that's Scottish Labour in 2015.
Having cut my political milk teeth in Con/Lab marginals in England and Wales, I attended uni in another Con/Lab marginal in Scotland. But I was living in a very safe (80+%) Labour ward. I got involved, happily posting leaflets, never getting the hang of lamppost banners and I realised something odd, there was no canvas returns. "Where are the canvas returns, I could put them into the computer" I asked. The experienced branch secretary replied "Oh, we don't need them, everyone here votes Labour."
I know that was a generation before 2015 but it stuck with me. When those areas that always voted Labour stopped voting Labour was it just too quick for the complacent attitude to adapt to actually fighting elections? Likewise, does Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Association have good voter ID, do they have the experience of facing a difficult election? I have no idea, but is it possible that we might be at a tipping point where Con seats are lost that shouldn't have been lost because the party just wasn't expecting that to be the battleground.
Which ward was that if you don't mind me asking?
Bannockburn East.
Really good walking routes to the south and west of there
I’m in a ridiculously idyllic valley settled for 6,000 years and once home to a Tatar village in the 14th century and now full of mulberry trees and wildflowers and a pristine river and I’m staring across the wooden houses to an Edenic garden where about a dozen young Moldovan women in white summer dresses are dancing barefoot in a circle as they sing folk songs
Its like a Balkan Wicker Man with a hint of very soft porn
On more important matters, we have the Derby at Epsom this afternoon over the iconic mile and a half.
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
On thread, one additional point regarding the likely LD seat total.
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
There's a history of the Lib Dems putting on vote share during an election campaign due to receiving more publicity that is implicit in the optimistic scenario for them. Up to 12-14% or so.
This is rather stymied by the Lib Dem's current status as the fourth largest party at Westminster, rather than the third, as had been the case in the past. That is why winning more seats than the SNP is so important to the Lib Dems, and why Davey has resorted to some attention-seeking slapstick stunts.
On the Lib Dems I agree with those down thread that this is complicated. In the elections where the Lib Dems have done particularly well the Tories have done badly. Tick. OTOH they have had outsized figures who have been a genuine part of the national debate, Paddy Ashdown, Charlie Kennedy and even Nick Clegg. Now (and indeed in 2019)? Not so much.
The loss of third position in Parliament has hurt them a lot. I keep thinking that this only matters to obsessives who actually pay attention to PMQs but it goes beyond that. PMQs often gives the lead to the news channels about what they should be blethering about and it is almost never something raised by the Lib Dems.
Their NOTA status has not recovered from the coalition. And they risk losing out to a general desire to see the Tories go forth and multiply biggly. I can see Labour coming from third in a lot of seats.
Overall, I am with @Quincel I would be betting lower rather than higher. But if the Tories really do lose 300 seats all bets are off.
I'd prefer 25 seats than 43 if it's just due to Tory decline and if I'm defending against a Tory resurgence next time.
Eh? On that basis Labour should prefer to miss winning a majority, in case they lose it next time.
LibDems have a small but non-zero chance of winning more seats than the Tories and becoming the Official Opposition if the campaign goes their way; they should seize it while they can.
There will not be a Labour - Lib Dem party system unless one of them turns into a right-wing party, so I disagree. History is full of short-term official oppositions like Canada's NDP and Bloc québécois, that end up going nowhere because they don't try to represent more than around a third of voters.
Travel lesson. Even the crappiest countries can give you incredible experiences. Indeed often it is the crappiest countries. Because: no other tourists and everyone is themselves
This is a much more intense, surprising and delightful moment than my visit to Mont St Michel
On more important matters, we have the Derby at Epsom this afternoon over the iconic mile and a half.
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
Afternoon all ... Turnout was 67% last time - some pollsters are showing it could be 75% (Techne were 68%).
Hello Stodge.
Turnout in 2017 was 69%. The last YouGov of the campaign had 67% saying they were 10 out of 10 absolutely certain to vote, or had already voted by post. A month and a bit before polling day this figure was 63%.
Turnout in 2019 was 67%. The last YouGov of the campaign had 68% saying they were 10 out of 10, absolutely certain to vote, or had already voted by post. A month and a bit before polling day this figure was 60%.
In the latest YouGov poll for this election, a month and a bit before polling day, 56% say that they are 10 out of 10, absolutely certain to vote.
Looks to me like it's certain that turnout will be down on GE2019. And it's not out of the question that the record low turnout in 2001 is threatened.
Interesting election fact. In all 10 elections since 1980 CON have never ended up with a total number of seats beginning with a '2'. We have won 7 elections in that period getting a '3' and lost 3 more getting a '1'!
Not sure it will end up beginning with a '2' this time either!
On thread, one additional point regarding the likely LD seat total.
Currently on GB wide polling, the LDs are at around 9%. There are 632 parliamentary seats up for grabs excluding NI. Winning 9% of those would give the LDs 57 seats - that is, the purest result possible in PR terms.
In "The case for the attack" Pip speculates that in their optimistic scenario, the LDs would pick up an extra 50 seats. That would take them to 58 - i.e. FPTP would deliver them a higher share of seats than they would get under PR.
It is surely highly improbable that the LD vote might become so efficiently geographically distributed that the disadvantages of FPTP to small parties now completely disappear in their case. To achieve that on 9% of the vote, they would have to lose their deposit in nearly all of the seats that they don't win. It just doesn't ring true.
There's a history of the Lib Dems putting on vote share during an election campaign due to receiving more publicity that is implicit in the optimistic scenario for them. Up to 12-14% or so.
This is rather stymied by the Lib Dem's current status as the fourth largest party at Westminster, rather than the third, as had been the case in the past. That is why winning more seats than the SNP is so important to the Lib Dems, and why Davey has resorted to some attention-seeking slapstick stunts.
It's worth repeating - although this is a national election, it's not being fought everywhere. My guess is Labour are working 250 seats - most of those Conservative held in 2019 but with a little work in some areas where they face issues over Gaza. The Conservatives are probably fighting 200 seats as a defensive campaign - they've probably written off the marginals and are back in the second and third layer of seats (those where Labour or the LDs require a 10-15% swing to take).
The LDs are working 50 seats I would imagine - those they hold plus the obvious targets and some with a strong Council base to build for next time. The Greens are fighting maybe 10 seats, Reform 3-5.
The ground war requires people and there just aren't the people any more so the election is fought on social media and tv - I remember for instance in 1992 the Conservatives spent half their advertising budget in the last 3-4 days.
In a safe Labour seat like East Ham, we might see one Labour leaflet - Stephen Timms will be in the High Street on the Saturday before Polling Day. We'll get nothing from anyone else. The Labour activists will be sent to places like Chingford or Hornchurch & Upminster while the Conservatives will also be there and in Romford. That's where the GE will be fought in my part of the world.
The Greens will fight Stratford & Bow and the Newham Independents will work West Ham & Beckton and we have three local by elections on July 4th - none of them in East Ham.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Interesting election fact. In all 10 elections since 1980 CON have never ended up with a total number of seats beginning with a '2'. We have won 7 elections in that period getting a '3' and lost 3 more getting a '1'!
Not sure it will end up beginning with a '2' this time either!
There's an obvious joke to make there, but I'm not doing it!
A last ditch idea for Rishi. A free daily lottery. £1,000.000 to the winner.
Cost £352,000,000. Everyone likes a gamble. Loads of millionaires. Cost less than Rwanda.
I have always been of the view that divvying up all the cost of government promotion of electoral registration and turnout promotion, and using it to fund a lottery where one name per constituency comes out of the hat and that person wins 1/650th of the pot - but if that person didn't vote their share gets redistributed among the other 649, etc etc - would be more effective and more fun.
The Economist floated the idea that for every pound in income tax you paid, you get a lottery ticket. If you win, you get back your tax for the year.
No limit on how much excess tax you pay.
For some rates of winning, they got a social scientist and an economist to work out that it would increase tax take considerably - far more than the payouts.
VAT receipt lotteries have been successful in several places in stopping small traders from ducking VAT.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Social media is about talking to your fan club and getting their approval, not talking to or understanding another point of view. And it rewards the former and not the latter.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
The Guardian having a history of that:
Was it "the Guardian wot swung it" is the somewhat tongue-in-cheek question for analysts following George Bush's presidential election victory.
Specifically, was the "Guardian Effect" to blame for the pro-Bush swing in one Ohio county?
In the run up to the US presidential election, the left-wing paper identified the area as a vote-swingers hotspot.
Under Operation Clark County, it began a letter-writing campaign which aimed to give people outside the US a say in the election.
The project set up its readers as pen pals with American voters, to press home the international ramifications of a vote for Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry.
But in Clark County itself, there was a swing away from the Democrat.
In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore won the county by 1% - or about 324 votes - this time President George Bush won 51%, with a 1600-vote county-wide swing in his favour.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
I’ve had liberal-left Americans try and denounce me in foreign parts for our Brexit vote. Like it has anything to do with them?!
Common denominator is sneering liberal lefties, not “being British” or “being American”
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
The Guardian having a history of that:
Was it "the Guardian wot swung it" is the somewhat tongue-in-cheek question for analysts following George Bush's presidential election victory.
Specifically, was the "Guardian Effect" to blame for the pro-Bush swing in one Ohio county?
In the run up to the US presidential election, the left-wing paper identified the area as a vote-swingers hotspot.
Under Operation Clark County, it began a letter-writing campaign which aimed to give people outside the US a say in the election.
The project set up its readers as pen pals with American voters, to press home the international ramifications of a vote for Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry.
But in Clark County itself, there was a swing away from the Democrat.
In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore won the county by 1% - or about 324 votes - this time President George Bush won 51%, with a 1600-vote county-wide swing in his favour.
Given that Bush Sr won Ohio by nearly 120,000 votes and even if he had lost Ohio he would still have won the election 275-263 the loss of 1600 votes seems rather inconsequential.
A couple of US polls now largely or completely since the verdict. One has Biden 2% ahead, one Trump 2% ahead. So, basically, no evidence of any change.
So we have gone from 66 to 124 in a day. What price a Tory majority after all?
In May 2021 (so, a midterm poll), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus predicted a Tory majority of 122.
People may have said something about Starmer being a dud, and Boris Johnson remaining Prime Minister for all the 2020s. Nameless, unidentified, people.
So we have gone from 66 to 124 in a day. What price a Tory majority after all?
In May 2021 (so, a midterm poll), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus predicted a Tory majority of 122.
People may have said something about Starmer being a dud, and Boris Johnson remaining Prime Minister for all the 2020s. Nameless, unidentified, people.
How long until the next Tory poll lead?
I'd go for about 3 years? Past the midpoint of the next Parliament, anyway.
On more important matters, we have the Derby at Epsom this afternoon over the iconic mile and a half.
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
This year's Derby feels to me a tricky one to find a route through. Possibly long prices worth an e/w look. (Like 2022).
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
The Guardian having a history of that:
Was it "the Guardian wot swung it" is the somewhat tongue-in-cheek question for analysts following George Bush's presidential election victory.
Specifically, was the "Guardian Effect" to blame for the pro-Bush swing in one Ohio county?
In the run up to the US presidential election, the left-wing paper identified the area as a vote-swingers hotspot.
Under Operation Clark County, it began a letter-writing campaign which aimed to give people outside the US a say in the election.
The project set up its readers as pen pals with American voters, to press home the international ramifications of a vote for Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry.
But in Clark County itself, there was a swing away from the Democrat.
In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore won the county by 1% - or about 324 votes - this time President George Bush won 51%, with a 1600-vote county-wide swing in his favour.
Given that Bush Sr won Ohio by nearly 120,000 votes and even if he had lost Ohio he would still have won the election 275-263 the loss of 1600 votes seems rather inconsequential.
Sure, the chances of an election being decided by a few hundred votes somewhere, let alone anyone being able to predict which few hundred votes, is extremely low.
But it does highlight that telling someone who to vote for tends to have the opposite effect to what was wanted.
On more important matters, we have the Derby at Epsom this afternoon over the iconic mile and a half.
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
Is there any chance of someone running us a detailed betting thread on Scottish constituencies sometime?
Gtg, but thank you again for this thread. It’s very helpful.
I plan to do so once the SOPNs are confirmed as I want to see how many Greens and Alba candidates are standing and where.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
MAGA snowflakes can give it out but can't take it.
A couple of US polls now largely or completely since the verdict. One has Biden 2% ahead, one Trump 2% ahead. So, basically, no evidence of any change.
Provisional view (as still early days): if Biden is looking for a hail Mary, this wasn't it.
No it certainly isn't. There is an alternative rationality going on. The conviction proves that Trump is needed as POTUS to drain the corupt swamp.
The nearest thing to a thoughtful Trumpian I have heard recently was on R4 Today this morning. Was a big cheese in the Trump team; left his side after the insurrection events of 6th January. Would prefer that someone else got the nomination, but if it's Trump, Trump gets his vote for POTUS in 2024 over any Democrat whatsoever.
SFAICS his was the voice of the ultra liberal Trump wing, denying his infallible perfection to the extent he wouldn't work for him any more. Scary.
Hello again. For labour it may be a 2019 election win. They could get What the Tories managed under Johnson. Or, will it be for Labour what Blair managed in 1997? I cannot see them bettering that under Starmer no matter how sick the country is of the Tories. As for the Tories 200 seats max unless the do not knows are sabotaging the polls along with the shy tories plus people who say they will vote for one party and vote for another. Looking forward to hear what other peoples opinions are!.
So we have gone from 66 to 124 in a day. What price a Tory majority after all?
In May 2021 (so, a midterm poll), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus predicted a Tory majority of 122.
People may have said something about Starmer being a dud, and Boris Johnson remaining Prime Minister for all the 2020s. Nameless, unidentified, people.
How long until the next Tory poll lead?
I'd go for about 3 years? Past the midpoint of the next Parliament, anyway.
Variation on the old "how many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb?" joke. (Answer, in case anyone hasn't heard it is "one, but the lightbulb has to want to change.")
Labour, if they have any sense, will be doing unpopular stuff 2024-6. There will be votes up for grabs, but I'm not sure that the blue team will be in any position to grab them. More likely, they will have done the political party equivalent of joining a questionable commune to be truly be themselves.
So when do the Conservatives decide they'd rather compromise with the public than keep on losing?
I had no idea there was an actual war between transnistria and Moldova. But there was from 1990-1992. Mainly fought - brilliantly (if you love layers of history) - at the Bendery Fortress first built by Suleiman the Magnfiicent, then endlessly swapped between various empires - Ottoman, austrohungarian, Swedish. Polish, Russian Tsarist, Soviet, Nazi - a Moldovan walnut and honey millefeulle of military history
I also had the best borscht of my life in a commie theme restaurant where you spooned your sour cream over your beet soup under a Bakelite radio embosssed with the face of Stalin and just now as we left transistria we got thoroughly examined by Putin’s Russian troops; who mass on this border quite menacingly
Superb. That’s proper travel
Pah! You've not done real travel till you've hiked around Woodstock market square when the farmers' market is on and Labour have a campaign stall. You need to be more adventurous.
Moldova is brilliant if you want that sense of “fuck I’m the only tourist here and probably only the third this year”. In some places you could be the only tourist they’ve ever had - or so I am told. Ie down in the south or the “wild north”
I love that feeling so Moldava rocks - for me. But it’s not for everyone
I confess I enjoy your travelblog snippets from places I will never visit for various practical reasons.
I had no idea there was an actual war between transnistria and Moldova. But there was from 1990-1992. Mainly fought - brilliantly (if you love layers of history) - at the Bendery Fortress first built by Suleiman the Magnfiicent, then endlessly swapped between various empires - Ottoman, austrohungarian, Swedish. Polish, Russian Tsarist, Soviet, Nazi - a Moldovan walnut and honey millefeulle of military history
I also had the best borscht of my life in a commie theme restaurant where you spooned your sour cream over your beet soup under a Bakelite radio embosssed with the face of Stalin and just now as we left transistria we got thoroughly examined by Putin’s Russian troops; who mass on this border quite menacingly
Superb. That’s proper travel
Pah! You've not done real travel till you've hiked around Woodstock market square when the farmers' market is on and Labour have a campaign stall. You need to be more adventurous.
Moldova is brilliant if you want that sense of “fuck I’m the only tourist here and probably only the third this year”. In some places you could be the only tourist they’ve ever had - or so I am told. Ie down in the south or the “wild north”
I love that feeling so Moldava rocks - for me. But it’s not for everyone
I confess I enjoy your travelblog snippets from places I will never visit for various practical reasons.
Confess? They're one of the Site's joys,along with Stodge's lapidary analyses and Sunil's salutations at each succesive poll.
A couple of US polls now largely or completely since the verdict. One has Biden 2% ahead, one Trump 2% ahead. So, basically, no evidence of any change.
Provisional view (as still early days): if Biden is looking for a hail Mary, this wasn't it.
This should worry Dems:
The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 35.4 in May from 37.9 in April. It is the lowest level since the pandemic in May 2020.
The reading was well below expectations. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 40.8 reading.
This is the sixth consecutive reading in contraction territory.
The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is released to subscribers three minutes before its release to the public at 9:45 am Eastern.
It is one of the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the key national ISM manufacturing survey for May is released Monday.
Other regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May have shown some improvement, economists said.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
I think it's great! She must have thought she's landed in Hartlepool.
Sometimes it's not a bad thing to hold a mirror up to people. 12.5 million views!
If it causes a few in the US pause for thought she'll have done the world a favour.
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
Bryant isn't always right, but this thread about levelling up is spot on. Can Labour do significantly better, though ? (They probably can't do worse.)
Few policies have made me so angry as the Tories’ ‘levelling up’. 🧵 They turned it into a competition between local authorities who wasted millions on developing plans that were going nowhere. They doled out taxpayers’ cash to the constituencies of their favourite MPs... https://x.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1796798439650472044
...of election bribes to a bunch of Tory constituencies. The policy is wrong, morally and economically. Gove says it’s like an unfinished cathedral. It’s much worse than that.
A far better principle would be ‘from each according to their ability, to each according to their needs’.
No, it would not.
Would you care to explain why it is wrong?
Because what's the point of having the ability if the benefits are taken from you?
A slice of your pie is given to someone with no pie. You still have plenty to fill your plate. And in many cases, still way more than enough.
We aren't advocating 99% income tax rates.
But isn't that what that quote implies? I live with my parents. I don't have a mortgage. Take that principle to it's logical conclusion and my tax rate should be through the roof.
Well no. You may not have major outgoings at present, but you may be saving up for a deposit on your own home, for example.
Ability to pay is gauged on a macro rather than micro level. Hence you end up with highly paid people claiming that they are virtually on the bread line, due to their lifestyle choices.
"Lifestyle choices" like needing to pay rent or mortgages?
"Lifestyle choices" like bringing up children?
One of the biggest differences in living expenses is simply if you're paying for the roof over your head or not. If you live rent or mortgage free then costs are completely different to if you need to spend a grand or more a month on rent/mortgage.
Earning £500 a month extra doesn't make up for spending £1000 a month extra.
No. Lifestyle choices like driving a flash car. Wearing high fashion and a bling watch. Taking expensive holidays. And yes, paying for private education. All discretionary spend.
The proportion of people who do that is utterly miniscule as a proportion of people claiming that they are virtually on the breadline.
Though again, housing is a far bigger issue than that. "Expensive holidays" or watches etc for most families are at most a couple of grand, not £12k. Paying for expensive holidays is far more affordable if you aren't paying for your house.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
The Guardian having a history of that:
Was it "the Guardian wot swung it" is the somewhat tongue-in-cheek question for analysts following George Bush's presidential election victory.
Specifically, was the "Guardian Effect" to blame for the pro-Bush swing in one Ohio county?
In the run up to the US presidential election, the left-wing paper identified the area as a vote-swingers hotspot.
Under Operation Clark County, it began a letter-writing campaign which aimed to give people outside the US a say in the election.
The project set up its readers as pen pals with American voters, to press home the international ramifications of a vote for Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry.
But in Clark County itself, there was a swing away from the Democrat.
In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore won the county by 1% - or about 324 votes - this time President George Bush won 51%, with a 1600-vote county-wide swing in his favour.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
A significant sub-group of Americans did similar in our part of the world with often fatal consequences between 1969 and 1997. They’ll cope with this lady.
Oh I am sure they will cope, just as they coped with the Guardian urging its readers to write to Americans and urge them not to vote for Trump in 2016 but it does absolutely nothing for our reputation.
The Guardian having a history of that:
Was it "the Guardian wot swung it" is the somewhat tongue-in-cheek question for analysts following George Bush's presidential election victory.
Specifically, was the "Guardian Effect" to blame for the pro-Bush swing in one Ohio county?
In the run up to the US presidential election, the left-wing paper identified the area as a vote-swingers hotspot.
Under Operation Clark County, it began a letter-writing campaign which aimed to give people outside the US a say in the election.
The project set up its readers as pen pals with American voters, to press home the international ramifications of a vote for Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry.
But in Clark County itself, there was a swing away from the Democrat.
In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore won the county by 1% - or about 324 votes - this time President George Bush won 51%, with a 1600-vote county-wide swing in his favour.
Given that Bush Sr won Ohio by nearly 120,000 votes and even if he had lost Ohio he would still have won the election 275-263 the loss of 1600 votes seems rather inconsequential.
Sure, the chances of an election being decided by a few hundred votes somewhere, let alone anyone being able to predict which few hundred votes, is extremely low.
But it does highlight that telling someone who to vote for tends to have the opposite effect to what was wanted.
The Clark County, Ohio story doesn't stand up statistically.
Clark County registered a modest swing against Democrats in 2004, contrary to the rest of Ohio. But Ohio's results were driven by big cities and college towns, which delivered outsized swings. Clark County is a more mixed urban-rural area in in Southwestern Ohio, and among its seven neighbouring counties, five counties had even larger swings in favour of Bush, whereas two counties had larger swings in favour of Kerry - one of which contained the larger city of Dayton, OH.
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
So we have gone from 66 to 124 in a day. What price a Tory majority after all?
In May 2021 (so, a midterm poll), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus predicted a Tory majority of 122.
People may have said something about Starmer being a dud, and Boris Johnson remaining Prime Minister for all the 2020s. Nameless, unidentified, people.
How long until the next Tory poll lead?
I'd go for about 3 years? Past the midpoint of the next Parliament, anyway.
Spring 2025, assuming that’s when the SR falls. Then final position means they won’t be able to hide from unpopular stuff, and Starmer is no Blair.
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
That’s an ancient Russian dream.
There are modern patriotic Russian songs that talk about reconquering Jerusalem.
Here’s a recap of some of Trump’s notable comments about “felons” and “criminals” – and a look at how the convict himself has actually been treated...</>
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
That’s an ancient Russian dream.
With every day that passes and the daft Ukraine war progresses and Putin isn't shot by space cannon into space... every day I like the Russians a little less.
I hope that the Russian dream has no future, and I increasingly hope that Russia has no future too. Back to Muscovy! The Mongol hoards would be fine too.
So we have gone from 66 to 124 in a day. What price a Tory majority after all?
In May 2021 (so, a midterm poll), Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus predicted a Tory majority of 122.
People may have said something about Starmer being a dud, and Boris Johnson remaining Prime Minister for all the 2020s. Nameless, unidentified, people.
How long until the next Tory poll lead?
I'd go for about 3 years? Past the midpoint of the next Parliament, anyway.
Spring 2025, assuming that’s when the SR falls. Then final position means they won’t be able to hide from unpopular stuff, and Starmer is no Blair.
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
That’s an ancient Russian dream.
With every day that passes and the daft Ukraine war progresses and Putin isn't shot by space cannon into space... every day I like the Russians a little less.
I hope that the Russian dream has no future, and I increasingly hope that Russia has no future too. Back to Muscovy! The Mongol hoards would be fine too.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
That’s an ancient Russian dream.
With every day that passes and the daft Ukraine war progresses and Putin isn't shot by space cannon into space... every day I like the Russians a little less.
I hope that the Russian dream has no future, and I increasingly hope that Russia has no future too. Back to Muscovy! The Mongol hoards would be fine too.
Make Mongolia Great Again?
Probably not horsemen this time around though as their main export.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.
I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
A tribute to the Union,
I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
Granted, many people are habitual voters. But then again, we've seen in this thread how some parties have had dramatic changes in fortune directly in response to widespread public opinion of failure or betrayal. The Lib Dem's lost two thirds of their vote in Wales in a single election. Wales's Labour vote has persisted, though. Part of that must be that perceptions of failure are not as commonplace in the wider Welsh population as Big_G would imagine. Or, at a pinch, that people don't believe that changing to another party will address such putative failures. What seems obvious to Big_G is far from obvious to many other people. And that might or might not be because Big_G sees more clearly.
The second option is more plausible.
I would also add I think the actual Welsh vote for the Libs dwindled away over decades. Indeed, the fact they held on to their strength until the 1960s suggests habit as much as anything. By the finish, many of their voters (in my experience at least) were English incomers.
It would be nice to see Labour suffer such a collapse but having successfully predicted 23 of the last 0 Labour failures in Wales I will not hold my breath.
Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh conservatives is hopeless and I agree about the second option
Who could forgot this bon not from the now banned @YBarddCwsc
Ships bearing Ivory, apes, and peacocks are yours.
Apart from we don't have any in Wales.
So you're getting slate, Andrew 'RT' Davies and red kites instead.
Surprise to me, UKIP still exist and they have elected a new leader Lois Perry taking over from Neil Hamilton.
Lois Perry: 77.4% Bill Etheridge: 20.9% Anne-Marie Waters: withdrew
I would love to know what the turnout was, my guess is less than 300 members.
They have an alliance with the English Democrats under the Patriots Alliance banner when there's joint candidates and "... will be standing in key areas where we believe we can make a stand or effect the election result."
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
But I hear what you say!
I was just making a rye observation.
Do you imagine grain or other themed jokes might ever overtake fish? Cod I'd like to know wheat the future looks like.
77 seats for the Tories is complete rubbish. No way. Lets be realistic.
Why is it rubbish? Not saying it's going to happen, the fieldwork is in some points already 12 days old and it's over a month to the actual election day but what's your evidence for a different view.
Here we like contrary views because that's where the value is. Always betting with the received wisdom doesn't lead to profits.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
But I hear what you say!
I was just making a rye observation.
Do you imagine grain or other themed jokes might ever overtake fish? Cod I'd like to know wheat the future looks like.
I'll be amaized if they do. It would make PB corny.
77 seats for the Tories is complete rubbish. No way. Lets be realistic.
Curious why you think it is so unlikely? Labour have recorded 20%+ swings in by-elections and local elections also fit with polling showing the Tories almost 20% down. They got 165 seats in 1997 when 13% behind. If they do lose by 20% why can't they fall below 100?
I'm not saying they will, but it's hardly implausible.
77 seats for the Tories is complete rubbish. No way. Lets be realistic.
Curious why you think it is so unlikely? Labour have recorded 20%+ swings in by-elections and local elections also fit with polling showing the Tories almost 20% down. They got 165 seats in 1997 when 13% behind. If they do lose by 20% why can't they fall below 100?
I'm not saying they will, but it's hardly implausible.
It's not implausible, I just don't think it will happen. It smells like a fishy result to me.
77 seats for the Tories is complete rubbish. No way. Lets be realistic.
Curious why you think it is so unlikely? Labour have recorded 20%+ swings in by-elections and local elections also fit with polling showing the Tories almost 20% down. They got 165 seats in 1997 when 13% behind. If they do lose by 20% why can't they fall below 100?
I'm not saying they will, but it's hardly implausible.
For me it is the fact the vote is likely to be stickier in core seats. The locals showed there are still areas that will reliably return Tory candidates. Yes the GE might throw the “we need a change” factor into the mix but I personally feel that there must be at least 100 seats out there where the opposition parties are nowhere and will find it hard to leapfrog when push comes to shove. I suspect, as I said last night, that the Tories will hit at least 150 and probably a bit more than that. But I am open to revising my estimations downwards slightly if we keep getting these indicators in 4 or so weeks’ time.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
I think it's great! She must have thought she's landed in Hartlepool.
Sometimes it's not a bad thing to hold a mirror up to people. 12.5 million views!
If it causes a few in the US pause for thought she'll have done the world a favour.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
But I hear what you say!
I was just making a rye observation.
Do you imagine grain or other themed jokes might ever overtake fish? Cod I'd like to know wheat the future looks like.
I'll be amaized if they do. It would make PB corny.
So long as they are spelt correctly, Pedantic Betting and all that.
Europe’s highest suspended Tibetan bridge. Dog refused to walk it and had to be carried over.
I am all in favour of the daily photo limit, but I would happily allow @IanB2 unlimited posting of 'dog for scale' photos. Who's with me?
I think this is the best idea on PB since GeorgeIV_therightful suggested sliced bread in 1842. Admittedly there were some good posts by WinnyChurch in the early 1940s that might compete.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
I think it's great! She must have thought she's landed in Hartlepool.
Sometimes it's not a bad thing to hold a mirror up to people. 12.5 million views!
If it causes a few in the US pause for thought she'll have done the world a favour.
Roger: wrong about everything. All the time.
She does seem a bit rude, but pales in comparison to those MAGA asshats.
Implausible. So the 200 tory seats in countryside seats will all go to the Lib Dems or Labour?What is palusible in these areas alone I believe they will retain 140 seats. Time will tell. These polls may repeat the 2015 election forcast which was totally incorrect.
Here’s a recap of some of Trump’s notable comments about “felons” and “criminals” – and a look at how the convict himself has actually been treated...</>
I like presidential candidates who aren't convicted fraudsters.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
I think it's great! She must have thought she's landed in Hartlepool.
Sometimes it's not a bad thing to hold a mirror up to people. 12.5 million views!
If it causes a few in the US pause for thought she'll have done the world a favour.
Roger: wrong about everything. All the time.
She does seem a bit rude, but pales in comparison to those MAGA asshats.
Steve Bray, MAGA, Just Stop Oil, ExR, SWP, Gaza, EDL, BLM, antifa..
The Western world is not blessed with rational and influential political protestors.
Stunningly rude in my book. Imagine going to a different country and having the audacity to tell people there that they are "disgusting" because of what they believe. I have absolutely no time for Trumpsters but that is just embarrassing. No wonder her husband wanted her out of there.
Is she a Yankee expert?
I was trying to think how this reads across.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
NOT in Bourbon County, Kentucky.
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
But I hear what you say!
I was just making a rye observation.
Do you imagine grain or other themed jokes might ever overtake fish? Cod I'd like to know wheat the future looks like.
I'll be amaized if they do. It would make PB corny.
So long as they are spelt correctly, Pedantic Betting and all that.
Comments
No, the flags of South Ossettia and Abkhazia, the Georgian regions Putin successfully but bloodily won and is now absorbing into Russia. Even as he hopes to extend his grip on rGeorgia itself. That’s surely his new plan for Moldova
He doesn’t need to invade. He’s learned from Ukraine that this can go badly wrong. Ditto occupation
Far better to destabilise and absorb, with some bribery and a hint of military menace. Something closer to what the Chinese do - see how they took Hong Kong without a bullet fired
The Liberal Democrats - as with so many other issues we discuss and debate, it's complicated and defies simplistic analysis.
Case history - I was an activist in 1997 in the Carshalton & Wallington Constituency working for Tom Brake who was a local councillor. The 1994 local elections had seen the Conservatives drop to 3 councillors in Sutton and lose their group leader, one Mavis Peart. From then, I thought we had a chance of taking Nigel Foreman's seat - he was an old-fashioned Conservative MP, rarely seen in the constituency and largely ineffective.
Tom had cut this majority in 1992 to just under 10,000 and we needed a 9% swing.
Despite the party's vote going down nationally, we got a 12% swing and turned the Conservative majority into an LD majority of 2,300 despite the Labour vote (the Labour vote was also a local councillor) going up 6%. The LD vote went up 7% and the Conservative vote went down by 16% or just under a third - the national share fell from 43% to 31%.
If you think the Conservatives are polling 25% in England, that's just under half the 47% they polled in 2019 so starting with the presumption a 60% 2019 vote is now a 30-35% vote, who picks up the pieces - Reform, the Greens, the LDs, Labour? In all cases, yes and no and that's where your constituency variable comes in.
The local bookmaker in Carshalton offered 4/1 on Tom Brake winning in 1997 - I had been out and saw how much the Conservative vote was fragmenting so I had a sizeable bet and if you're going to play constituency markets, you need good local intel as to what's happening. The bookies didn't have that in 1997 - I heard similar tales of LDs winning big bets in Harrogate, Cheltenham and some other places - it's better now. but probably not up to speed with the ground war.
Turnout was 67% last time - some pollsters are showing it could be 75% (Techne were 68%).
So you have to apply differential turnout set against variable constituency factors to try to "guesstimate" the result in each of the 650 contests (and that's before boundary changes).
That's how the LD seat count goes up even if the national vote tally goes down and the greater fall in Conservative voters accentuates that efficiency especially if the ex-Conservatives either go straight to the LDs or stay at home. I noticed in 1997 some Conservatives went straight to Labour and the issue for Davey is those Conservatives who go straight to Labour - stopping off with Reform or staying at home is less of a problem in the seats the party needs to win.
However. If tactical voting were able to get them to 58 seats, then I expect it would also leave them some way above 9% of the vote nationally.
Its like a Balkan Wicker Man with a hint of very soft porn
I won't bore you with more analysis so my idea of the each way value is DANCING GEMINI and I got on at 10s (was 25s earlier in the week and I'm kicking myself about that).
This is rather stymied by the Lib Dem's current status as the fourth largest party at Westminster, rather than the third, as had been the case in the past. That is why winning more seats than the SNP is so important to the Lib Dems, and why Davey has resorted to some attention-seeking slapstick stunts.
The loss of third position in Parliament has hurt them a lot. I keep thinking that this only matters to obsessives who actually pay attention to PMQs but it goes beyond that. PMQs often gives the lead to the news channels about what they should be blethering about and it is almost never something raised by the Lib Dems.
Their NOTA status has not recovered from the coalition. And they risk losing out to a general desire to see the Tories go forth and multiply biggly. I can see Labour coming from third in a lot of seats.
Overall, I am with @Quincel I would be betting lower rather than higher. But if the Tories really do lose 300 seats all bets are off.
This is a much more intense, surprising and delightful moment than my visit to Mont St Michel
https://x.com/wutangkids/status/1796005546425790881
Turnout in 2017 was 69%. The last YouGov of the campaign had 67% saying they were 10 out of 10 absolutely certain to vote, or had already voted by post. A month and a bit before polling day this figure was 63%.
Turnout in 2019 was 67%. The last YouGov of the campaign had 68% saying they were 10 out of 10, absolutely certain to vote, or had already voted by post. A month and a bit before polling day this figure was 60%.
In the latest YouGov poll for this election, a month and a bit before polling day, 56% say that they are 10 out of 10, absolutely certain to vote.
Looks to me like it's certain that turnout will be down on GE2019. And it's not out of the question that the record low turnout in 2001 is threatened.
Not sure it will end up beginning with a '2' this time either!
The LDs are working 50 seats I would imagine - those they hold plus the obvious targets and some with a strong Council base to build for next time. The Greens are fighting maybe 10 seats, Reform 3-5.
The ground war requires people and there just aren't the people any more so the election is fought on social media and tv - I remember for instance in 1992 the Conservatives spent half their advertising budget in the last 3-4 days.
In a safe Labour seat like East Ham, we might see one Labour leaflet - Stephen Timms will be in the High Street on the Saturday before Polling Day. We'll get nothing from anyone else. The Labour activists will be sent to places like Chingford or Hornchurch & Upminster while the Conservatives will also be there and in Romford. That's where the GE will be fought in my part of the world.
The Greens will fight Stratford & Bow and the Newham Independents will work West Ham & Beckton and we have three local by elections on July 4th - none of them in East Ham.
Who knew?
https://moldova.travel/en/orheiul-vechi/
https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1796904573677805626?s=61
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/india-election-exit-polls-show-modi-winning-with-large-majority/ar-BB1nrDmY?ocid=BingNewsSerp
They should call it anti-social media.
Both sides seem quite unpleasant
Was it "the Guardian wot swung it" is the somewhat tongue-in-cheek question for analysts following George Bush's presidential election victory.
Specifically, was the "Guardian Effect" to blame for the pro-Bush swing in one Ohio county?
In the run up to the US presidential election, the left-wing paper identified the area as a vote-swingers hotspot.
Under Operation Clark County, it began a letter-writing campaign which aimed to give people outside the US a say in the election.
The project set up its readers as pen pals with American voters, to press home the international ramifications of a vote for Republican George Bush or Democrat John Kerry.
But in Clark County itself, there was a swing away from the Democrat.
In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore won the county by 1% - or about 324 votes - this time President George Bush won 51%, with a 1600-vote county-wide swing in his favour.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/3981823.stm
Common denominator is sneering liberal lefties, not “being British” or “being American”
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election
Provisional view (as still early days): if Biden is looking for a hail Mary, this wasn't it.
People may have said something about Starmer being a dud, and Boris Johnson remaining Prime Minister for all the 2020s. Nameless, unidentified, people.
How long until the next Tory poll lead?
But it does highlight that telling someone who to vote for tends to have the opposite effect to what was wanted.
The nearest thing to a thoughtful Trumpian I have heard recently was on R4 Today this morning. Was a big cheese in the Trump team; left his side after the insurrection events of 6th January. Would prefer that someone else got the nomination, but if it's Trump, Trump gets his vote for POTUS in 2024 over any Democrat whatsoever.
SFAICS his was the voice of the ultra liberal Trump wing, denying his infallible perfection to the extent he wouldn't work for him any more. Scary.
Labour, if they have any sense, will be doing unpopular stuff 2024-6. There will be votes up for grabs, but I'm not sure that the blue team will be in any position to grab them. More likely, they will have done the political party equivalent of joining a questionable commune to be truly be themselves.
So when do the Conservatives decide they'd rather compromise with the public than keep on losing?
Place wouldn't be the same without them.
The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 35.4 in May from 37.9 in April. It is the lowest level since the pandemic in May 2020.
The reading was well below expectations. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 40.8 reading.
This is the sixth consecutive reading in contraction territory.
The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is released to subscribers three minutes before its release to the public at 9:45 am Eastern.
It is one of the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the key national ISM manufacturing survey for May is released Monday.
Other regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May have shown some improvement, economists said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-business-activity-index-weakens-to-lowest-level-in-four-years-9d41c6fc
Biden really doesn't need factory closures in the Mid West.
Sometimes it's not a bad thing to hold a mirror up to people. 12.5 million views!
If it causes a few in the US pause for thought she'll have done the world a favour.
Back once again on the geopolitics, Moldova is required for Putin's pipe dream of reconquering and christianising Constantinople. It obviously sounds demented, but if he can make it to Odessa he's only 2-3 wars away...
Though again, housing is a far bigger issue than that. "Expensive holidays" or watches etc for most families are at most a couple of grand, not £12k. Paying for expensive holidays is far more affordable if you aren't paying for your house.
I mean, a Bourbon expert sounds like some kind of Professor on the French Revolution.
Clark County registered a modest swing against Democrats in 2004, contrary to the rest of Ohio. But Ohio's results were driven by big cities and college towns, which delivered outsized swings. Clark County is a more mixed urban-rural area in in Southwestern Ohio, and among its seven neighbouring counties, five counties had even larger swings in favour of Bush, whereas two counties had larger swings in favour of Kerry - one of which contained the larger city of Dayton, OH.
All assuming vaguely competent Tory leader.
Donald Trump had lots of negative opinions about felons. Now he is one.
From roughing up suspects to revoking bail, the 34-count felon has suggested harsh treatment for his fellow criminals
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/01/donald-trump-crime-punishment
Here’s a recap of some of Trump’s notable comments about “felons” and “criminals” – and a look at how the convict himself has actually been treated...</>
I hope that the Russian dream has no future, and I increasingly hope that Russia has no future too. Back to Muscovy! The Mongol hoards would be fine too.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 46% (+4)
CON: 19% (-3)
REF: 12% (+2)
LDM: 10% (-1)
Seat Projection (MRP):
LAB: 493 (+41)
CON: 72 (-8)
LDM: 39 (-14)
SNP: 22 (-18)
Labour majority of 336 (+82).
via @FindoutnowUK / @ElectCalculus, 20-27 May
(Changes with 12 Feb)
Anyway your horizons re: House of Bourbon appear somewhat limited, seeing as how the "royal" Bourbons date back to 13th century, and are today the ruling dynasty of Spain's constitutional monarchy.
But I hear what you say!
Lois Perry: 77.4%
Bill Etheridge: 20.9%
Anne-Marie Waters: withdrew
I would love to know what the turnout was, my guess is less than 300 members.
They have an alliance with the English Democrats under the Patriots Alliance banner when there's joint candidates and "... will be standing in key areas where we believe we can make a stand or effect the election result."
Here we like contrary views because that's where the value is. Always betting with the received wisdom doesn't lead to profits.
I'm not saying they will, but it's hardly implausible.
New w/ @HansNichols
Some potential bad signs for Trump in new @MorningConsult poll post-verdict
49% of Ind.'s and 15% of R's said Trump should end his campaign
54% of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of the verdict
https://x.com/AlexThomp/status/1796928482133320102
The Western world is not blessed with rational and influential political protestors.