Is there a well designed site that would be good for a beginner?
This is a good point. Could TSE maybe repost something from the early days of the site (if such a header exists) where OGH detailed some of the basics? There must have been a lot of betting newbies when this site started in the Noughties?
Peter the Punter had at least one good article about the basics of betting strategy - establishing a betting bank, and spreading your bets around.
The other recommendation I would make a diary of what, where and why you have bet.
It helps when looking at losing bets to avoid repeating mistakes. It is too easy to concentrate on the winners and skip over the losses. Indeed bookies are very keen for you to do so.
Smarkets have rather a good system of emailing you every month your score for the previous month
Only problem is they are jinxed for me. Everything I bet there is a loser.
You are missing a commercial opportunity - put bets on at Smarkets, post on here what you’ve bet on so everyone here lays what you’ve done and then you get a share of the winnings, say 10% from everyone.
Sounds like an opportunity for fresh disasters.
I met Shadsy and told him about my smarkets problem and assured him that my overall book is in profit. I have this niggling suspicion that he did not believe me.
I currently live in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, which used to be fairly firmly Conservative. Unlike many constituencies however, in 2019 the Conservative majority reduced considerably, with the new Conservative MP, Anthony Browne, having just a 4.3% margin from the Lib Dems.
South Cambridgeshire council (borders not coincident with the constituency) is very strongly Lib Dem (25 majority).
The constituency has been considerably redrawn for this general election, and am I now in the new St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire constituency.
Interestingly, Anthony Browne is standing in this general election, but not in his old seat of South Cambridgeshire, but in the new seat of St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire.
I still expect him to lose, and the Lib Dems to gain St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire. Because of the way the constituencies have been split, I have no idea who will win South Cambridgeshire...
The Economist - who only give the Lib Dems 22 seats - have South Cambridgeshire as a Lib Dem gain, 10pp ahead of Labour and Tories tied on 25%.
They forecast St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire as a tight Conservative hold 29-28-24. To be honest, a lot of the Economist numbers look really implausible.
Is 2nd place Labour or the Liberal Democrats? Thanks.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
Yes but you weren’t in power then. Now you’ve been in power for 14 years and nobody expects you to win.
Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT
I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers
The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip
That’s just too forced. Maybe because there isn’t much to write about it you are getting lots of words to replace actual events. Maybe even AI writing.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
But it *won’t* be coming their way. Not is there a plan to pay for it - the exact kind of invested giveaway bribe these voters are against in principle
Sticks in the craw, not going to happen, won’t change the dial.
You’d be better off sticking to the dont let Labour smash our economic recovery line.”
That won't work now anymore than it did in 1997, if you want that you are already voting Tory.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
But it *won’t* be coming their way. Not is there a plan to pay for it - the exact kind of invested giveaway bribe these voters are against in principle
Sticks in the craw, not going to happen, won’t change the dial.
You’d be better off sticking to the dont let Labour smash our economic recovery line.”
That won't work now anymore than it did in 1997, if you want that you are already voting Tory.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
But nobody thinks there is a prospect of the Tories winning so nobody thinks there is a prospect of a big tax cut.
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
The Spectator makes the (tiny bit tongue in cheek) case for Truss as post-Sunapocalypse leader:
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
Interesting. Some might wonder if TRUSS could stage an even bigger shock and return before the election, as leader-designate? It’s an idea that many will find deeply attractive, and electrifying.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
Well that is true, but we aren't talking about me, we are talking about my children. They don't think about their inheritance and I'm guessing most offspring don't.
I currently live in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, which used to be fairly firmly Conservative. Unlike many constituencies however, in 2019 the Conservative majority reduced considerably, with the new Conservative MP, Anthony Browne, having just a 4.3% margin from the Lib Dems.
South Cambridgeshire council (borders not coincident with the constituency) is very strongly Lib Dem (25 majority).
The constituency has been considerably redrawn for this general election, and am I now in the new St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire constituency.
Interestingly, Anthony Browne is standing in this general election, but not in his old seat of South Cambridgeshire, but in the new seat of St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire.
I still expect him to lose, and the Lib Dems to gain St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire. Because of the way the constituencies have been split, I have no idea who will win South Cambridgeshire...
The Economist - who only give the Lib Dems 22 seats - have South Cambridgeshire as a Lib Dem gain, 10pp ahead of Labour and Tories tied on 25%.
They forecast St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire as a tight Conservative hold 29-28-24. To be honest, a lot of the Economist numbers look really implausible.
Is 2nd place Labour or the Liberal Democrats? Thanks.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
But it *won’t* be coming their way. Not is there a plan to pay for it - the exact kind of invested giveaway bribe these voters are against in principle
Sticks in the craw, not going to happen, won’t change the dial.
You’d be better off sticking to the dont let Labour smash our economic recovery line.”
That won't work now anymore than it did in 1997, if you want that you are already voting Tory.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
But nobody thinks there is a prospect of the Tories winning so nobody thinks there is a prospect of a big tax cut.
Well nobody thinks the LDs will win either and it is Tory v LD marginals where it would give the Tories their biggest boost
The Spectator makes the (tiny bit tongue in cheek) case for Truss as post-Sunapocalypse leader:
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
Interesting. Some might wonder if TRUSS could stage an even bigger shock and return before the election, as leader-designate? It’s an idea that many will find deeply attractive, and electrifying.
I would (genuinely) like to read a Truss manifesto.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
But it *won’t* be coming their way. Not is there a plan to pay for it - the exact kind of invested giveaway bribe these voters are against in principle
Sticks in the craw, not going to happen, won’t change the dial.
You’d be better off sticking to the dont let Labour smash our economic recovery line.”
That won't work now anymore than it did in 1997, if you want that you are already voting Tory.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
But nobody thinks there is a prospect of the Tories winning so nobody thinks there is a prospect of a big tax cut.
Well nobody thinks the LDs will win either and it is Tory v LD marginals where it would give the Tories their biggest boost
People aren’t voting Lib Dem in anticipation of their policies being implemented
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
Well that is true, but we aren't talking about me, we are talking about my children. That don't think about their inheritance and I'm guessing most offspring don't.
They do once they get to 50+ and your children I assume did not vote Tory in 2019 so are not relevant in terms of this policy's target voters
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
True, but a lot (I mean A LOT) of water has flowed under the bridge since then- that was before the GFC, let alone everything else.
The government has spent billions it doesn't have on NI cuts to zero electoral benefit. Thinking that an IHT cut now is an electoral elixir... I can understand cargo cult cosplay of Churchill or Thatcher... but of George Osborne?
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
But it *won’t* be coming their way. Not is there a plan to pay for it - the exact kind of invested giveaway bribe these voters are against in principle
Sticks in the craw, not going to happen, won’t change the dial.
You’d be better off sticking to the dont let Labour smash our economic recovery line.”
That won't work now anymore than it did in 1997, if you want that you are already voting Tory.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
But nobody thinks there is a prospect of the Tories winning so nobody thinks there is a prospect of a big tax cut.
Well nobody thinks the LDs will win either and it is Tory v LD marginals where it would give the Tories their biggest boost
People aren’t voting Lib Dem in anticipation of their policies being implemented
And the Tories have more chance of their policies being implemented than the LDs do yes
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came between Theresa May announcing her resignation after the Euro elections - and the 2019 GE election result. You don't even have to rely on opinion polls. You've got actual votes. But here it is in graphical form, anyways;
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
But it *won’t* be coming their way. Not is there a plan to pay for it - the exact kind of invested giveaway bribe these voters are against in principle
Sticks in the craw, not going to happen, won’t change the dial.
You’d be better off sticking to the dont let Labour smash our economic recovery line.”
That won't work now anymore than it did in 1997, if you want that you are already voting Tory.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
But nobody thinks there is a prospect of the Tories winning so nobody thinks there is a prospect of a big tax cut.
Well nobody thinks the LDs will win either and it is Tory v LD marginals where it would give the Tories their biggest boost
People aren’t voting Lib Dem in anticipation of their policies being implemented
And the Tories have more chance of their policies being implemented than the LDs do yes
Except they don’t because nobody really expects the Tories to win
Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT
I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers
The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip
Last 9 words are a dactylic pentameter I believe. And there's a surviving fragment of Sappho which reads Spring...too long...turnip (this is absolutely true btw). Have you asked chatgpt to imagine it's a failed classics don touring Moldova?
I currently live in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, which used to be fairly firmly Conservative. Unlike many constituencies however, in 2019 the Conservative majority reduced considerably, with the new Conservative MP, Anthony Browne, having just a 4.3% margin from the Lib Dems.
South Cambridgeshire council (borders not coincident with the constituency) is very strongly Lib Dem (25 majority).
The constituency has been considerably redrawn for this general election, and am I now in the new St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire constituency.
Interestingly, Anthony Browne is standing in this general election, but not in his old seat of South Cambridgeshire, but in the new seat of St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire.
I still expect him to lose, and the Lib Dems to gain St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire. Because of the way the constituencies have been split, I have no idea who will win South Cambridgeshire...
The Economist - who only give the Lib Dems 22 seats - have South Cambridgeshire as a Lib Dem gain, 10pp ahead of Labour and Tories tied on 25%.
They forecast St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire as a tight Conservative hold 29-28-24. To be honest, a lot of the Economist numbers look really implausible.
Is 2nd place Labour or the Liberal Democrats? Thanks.
Labour, would you believe it.
Not totally crazy.
In the same way that Brighton got Londonised and then burst to infect the rest of Sussex, a similar thing has been going on with Cambridge and southern Cambridgeshire.
For the Conservatives to survive in Ely/Huntingdon/St Neots etc, they need to come through the middle of a three horse race.
These stunts show he is only in it for attention. And it doesn't paint him in a positive light.
I used to know what the LDs stood for. But now? Not a clue.
They are ruining Oxfordshire and with people like Moran in senior positions, they are just seen locally as opportunistic bandwagon jumpers.
They are not putting forward a positive agenda. They don't deserve to succeed.
I don’t understand why they are not full on “reverse Ukip”, and campaigning draped in the EU flag. Plenty of young votes in that, and as we can see from some media commentary, some people will happily choose to believe that almost anything was caused by Brexit.
I guess because it's impossible.
Some sort of UK embraces the EU is possible and potentially popular, but only in the UK. Any plausible reintroduction represents a complete impossibility politically here in the UK.
This is (in my view) the current natural state - there's no need to be alarmed. We had a bit of a foreign dalliance and whilst it was fun, it's over.
I agree it’s impossible, but they have an advantage. They don’t have to actually deliver it. They could (and from their perspective should) be saying all sorts of nonsense like “if we rejoin the EU we will have XBn extra to spend on the NHS”. It’s a lie but some voters would lap it up.
I think the problem is that strategy might get them a lot of votes spread out, but it would put off enough voters that it would make it harder for them to win more seats.
Quite: the LD strategy, which has been pretty efficient in the past, is to be as inoffensive to as large a number of voters as possible, and therefore to be a repository for anti-x tactical voting.
It causes no end of problems if they actually gain any power. But it's pretty good at getting you a few MPs.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
Well that is true, but we aren't talking about me, we are talking about my children. That don't think about their inheritance and I'm guessing most offspring don't.
They do once they get to 50+ and your children I assume did not vote Tory in 2019 so are not relevant in terms of this policy's target voters
They didn't and they are a long way off 50 so I don't have a riposte to that.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
How would you start unwinding those poll changes from Brown "bottling" calling an election, which happened a few days later?
There had been a bit of an increase for Labour during their conference the week before, but during the Tory conference they were only back to where they were before the labour conference. It wasn't till Brown announced he wasn't having an election, followed by lots of "bottle" articles, that the polls turned blue.
Certainly the fact that Brown's bounce ended after that point, was almost universally blamed on his own actions - I don't remember any mention of IHT being the difference maker.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Houses are certainly not cheap here in Oxfordshire. Earlier this afternoon, I was carrying an orange diamond stakeboard and about to put it up when a chap from the (expensive) house next to it spoke to me. He pointed out it was a shared driveway, so he thought he should also have a say.
I apologised that we hadn't known that and offered to remove it. He considered for a second and then said that although he'd not have requested it himself, he had no issues with it or us and I should let it stay. He added, "But if it was a Tory one, you'd have been told where to shove it."
The difference with 2019 is noticeable and positive - and yet we did well around here in 2019, anyway!
Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT
I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers
The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip
That’s just too forced. Maybe because there isn’t much to write about it you are getting lots of words to replace actual events. Maybe even AI writing.
These stunts show he is only in it for attention. And it doesn't paint him in a positive light.
I used to know what the LDs stood for. But now? Not a clue.
They are ruining Oxfordshire and with people like Moran in senior positions, they are just seen locally as opportunistic bandwagon jumpers.
They are not putting forward a positive agenda. They don't deserve to succeed.
I don’t understand why they are not full on “reverse Ukip”, and campaigning draped in the EU flag. Plenty of young votes in that, and as we can see from some media commentary, some people will happily choose to believe that almost anything was caused by Brexit.
I guess because it's impossible.
Some sort of UK embraces the EU is possible and potentially popular, but only in the UK. Any plausible reintroduction represents a complete impossibility politically here in the UK.
This is (in my view) the current natural state - there's no need to be alarmed. We had a bit of a foreign dalliance and whilst it was fun, it's over.
I agree it’s impossible, but they have an advantage. They don’t have to actually deliver it. They could (and from their perspective should) be saying all sorts of nonsense like “if we rejoin the EU we will have XBn extra to spend on the NHS”. It’s a lie but some voters would lap it up.
I think the problem is that strategy might get them a lot of votes spread out, but it would put off enough voters that it would make it harder for them to win more seats.
Quite: the LD strategy, which has been pretty efficient in the past, is to be as inoffensive to as large a number of voters as possible, and therefore to be a repository for anti-x tactical voting.
It causes no end of problems if they actually gain any power. But it's pretty good at getting you a few MPs.
I do wonder though, if they stopped being such cynical fannies and stood for something solid would they have a better chance of breaking the status quo and becoming the second party (because they need to become the second party if they eventually want to become the first party).
Imagine if they stood this year on rejoin, end student fees, free glass coffee tables for all, UBI etc - it’s about as realistic as the offer by any party but they are so obsessed with not offending anyone that they don’t inspire anyone.
I mean, otherwise what’s the point of them if they don’t push for power.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
The Spectator makes the (tiny bit tongue in cheek) case for Truss as post-Sunapocalypse leader:
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
Interesting. Some might wonder if TRUSS could stage an even bigger shock and return before the election, as leader-designate? It’s an idea that many will find deeply attractive, and electrifying.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Well I exceed that asset level multiple times and neither of my children would dream of voting Conservative. I don't think inheritance crosses their mind and hopefully it will be several decades before it becomes relevant and I'm doing my best to spend it.
Yes but you are ideological Liberals. Most voters aren't.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came after Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the 2007 Tory conference
Well that is true, but we aren't talking about me, we are talking about my children. That don't think about their inheritance and I'm guessing most offspring don't.
They do once they get to 50+ and your children I assume did not vote Tory in 2019 so are not relevant in terms of this policy's target voters
They don't count as human beings in the Tory Weltanschauung?
Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT
I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers
The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip
That’s just too forced. Maybe because there isn’t much to write about it you are getting lots of words to replace actual events. Maybe even AI writing.
I will have to reconcile myself to professional travel writing
The Spectator makes the (tiny bit tongue in cheek) case for Truss as post-Sunapocalypse leader:
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
Interesting. Some might wonder if TRUSS could stage an even bigger shock and return before the election, as leader-designate? It’s an idea that many will find deeply attractive, and electrifying.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
And **** tne national finances.
To be fair, IHT doesn’t bring in all that much in the general scheme of things. Is it wise to abolish it at this point? Probably not. Will the Tories pledge to do so? Absolutely. It’s their last Big Idea that could have some breakthrough.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Houses are certainly not cheap here in Oxfordshire. Earlier this afternoon, I was carrying an orange diamond stakeboard and about to put it up when a chap from the (expensive) house next to it spoke to me. He pointed out it was a shared driveway, so he thought he should also have a say.
I apologised that we hadn't known that and offered to remove it. He considered for a second and then said that although he'd not have requested it himself, he had no issues with it or us and I should let it stay. He added, "But if it was a Tory one, you'd have been told where to shove it."
The difference with 2019 is noticeable and positive - and yet we did well around here in 2019, anyway!
A truly remarkable (and unrepresentative) percentage of PB posters appear to be Lib Dem activists.
The Spectator makes the (tiny bit tongue in cheek) case for Truss as post-Sunapocalypse leader:
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
Interesting. Some might wonder if TRUSS could stage an even bigger shock and return before the election, as leader-designate? It’s an idea that many will find deeply attractive, and electrifying.
"[Jacob Rees-Mogg], the Tory MP who is known to only wear a traditional double-breasted suit, also explained why he hates bananas - describing them as 'slimy and unpleasant'.
The veteran Brexiteer also avoids vegetables and instead fuels his body on the campaign trail with instant coffee so thick it has the consistency of 'tar'."
Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT
I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers
The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip
That’s just too forced. Maybe because there isn’t much to write about it you are getting lots of words to replace actual events. Maybe even AI writing.
I will have to reconcile myself to professional travel writing
I’m here to help with my vast experience of writing postcards as a kid. In fact you could have just written your whole article “wish you were here”.
But give professional travel writing a go. I think you have the makings of a writer in you.
Old olhei is honestly one of the most amazing places I’ve ever been. It must be one of the oldest continuously settled locales on earth - continuous evidence since 20,000-30,000 BC. THE NOOM IS GREAT
I am walking down a sunlit valley. Donkey carts pass. The limestone cliffs are filled with caves that date back to Dacian times. The river has Neolithic remains. There is a Tatar caravanserai. I can hear a cuckoo. The polenta is good and I hate polenta. Everyone makes their own cheese and wine. The girls are pretty and they do pagan dances in the gardens which are full of wildflowers
The roads are shit. The men are drunk but happy. Old men dig beets in the soft warmth barechested. Putin might invade. I just saw someone fall of a bicycle. Children laugh as granny has another apricot vodka. There is a hideous commie concrete bridge going nowhere but beneath it the river flows as it has flowed for ten billions years and a beautiful girl sings a song to a turnip
That’s just too forced. Maybe because there isn’t much to write about it you are getting lots of words to replace actual events. Maybe even AI writing.
I will have to reconcile myself to professional travel writing
I’m here to help with my vast experience of writing postcards as a kid. In fact you could have just written your whole article “wish you were here”.
But give professional travel writing a go. I think you have the makings of a writer in you.
He does need to learn how to use full stops. I recommend Fowler's English Usage.
"[Jacob Rees-Mogg], the Tory MP who is known to only wear a traditional double-breasted suit, also explained why he hates bananas - describing them as 'slimy and unpleasant'.
The veteran Brexiteer also avoids vegetables and instead fuels his body on the campaign trail with instant coffee so thick it has the consistency of 'tar'."
Is there a well designed site that would be good for a beginner?
This is a good point. Could TSE maybe repost something from the early days of the site (if such a header exists) where OGH detailed some of the basics? There must have been a lot of betting newbies when this site started in the Noughties?
Peter the Punter had at least one good article about the basics of betting strategy - establishing a betting bank, and spreading your bets around.
The other recommendation I would make a diary of what, where and why you have bet.
It helps when looking at losing bets to avoid repeating mistakes. It is too easy to concentrate on the winners and skip over the losses. Indeed bookies are very keen for you to do so.
Smarkets have rather a good system of emailing you every month your score for the previous month
Only problem is they are jinxed for me. Everything I bet there is a loser.
You are missing a commercial opportunity - put bets on at Smarkets, post on here what you’ve bet on so everyone here lays what you’ve done and then you get a share of the winnings, say 10% from everyone.
And there we go. All of a sudden it’s horribly complicated.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
And **** tne national finances.
To be fair, IHT doesn’t bring in all that much in the general scheme of things. Is it wise to abolish it at this point? Probably not. Will the Tories pledge to do so? Absolutely. It’s their last Big Idea that could have some breakthrough.
The Spectator makes the (tiny bit tongue in cheek) case for Truss as post-Sunapocalypse leader:
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
Interesting. Some might wonder if TRUSS could stage an even bigger shock and return before the election, as leader-designate? It’s an idea that many will find deeply attractive, and electrifying.
I currently live in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, which used to be fairly firmly Conservative. Unlike many constituencies however, in 2019 the Conservative majority reduced considerably, with the new Conservative MP, Anthony Browne, having just a 4.3% margin from the Lib Dems.
South Cambridgeshire council (borders not coincident with the constituency) is very strongly Lib Dem (25 majority).
The constituency has been considerably redrawn for this general election, and am I now in the new St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire constituency.
Interestingly, Anthony Browne is standing in this general election, but not in his old seat of South Cambridgeshire, but in the new seat of St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire.
I still expect him to lose, and the Lib Dems to gain St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire. Because of the way the constituencies have been split, I have no idea who will win South Cambridgeshire...
Snap! I’m genuinely excited to vote in a marginal constituency for the first time in my life. Anthony Browne has been flooding local social media groups with posts visiting local bakeries etc. The Lib Dem candidate has been fairly invisible but has been sending out a lot of leaflets. The Labour candidate recently stood in Lambeth and is getting a lot of hostility for being an outsider. Despite what the opinion polls say I think it’s got to be between the Lib Dems and the Tories.
Europe’s highest suspended Tibetan bridge. Dog refused to walk it and had to be carried over.
I am all in favour of the daily photo limit, but I would happily allow @IanB2 unlimited posting of 'dog for scale' photos. Who's with me?
Perhaps what the dedicated professionals of the PB members services division might consider, is allowing a PBer to give their pix proxies to another PBer?
Personally would be quite willing to sign over my pic rights (rarely exercised) to the "dog for scale" fund.
Vaguely related to the topic: After the LibDem leader (Paddy Ashdown, if I recall correctly) met George W. Bush, he said that Bush didn't seem much like the picture he had gotten from your media.
That strikes me as a powerful criticism of the Guardian, the BBC, and their ideological allies.
And, the feeling that American leaders, especially Republicans, are rarely treated fairly by foreign media is one of the many, many reasons for the rise of Trump.
In fairness, Bush Jnr was (wrongly) portrayed as an idiot by US media too. It was a combination of his intentional folksiness concealing his intelligence and his verbal gaffes.
Personally think you are rather over-rating the personality of George Bush the Younger.
You are correct re: folksiness, perhaps the greatest of his personal & political gifts, in strong contrast to his father George Bush the Elder. In fact, it appears that the son did everything he could to be as different as possible. For example, Texas twang and rooting for the Aggies of Texas A&M; the latter especially rich & rare for a Yale man. (What Freud or Jung would say about that, I leave to your own judgement.)
W was throughout his career in politics (starting with working on Elder's campaigns) and business (
Many people here will be aware of the "upon mature recollection" story of the 1990 Irish Presidential election but it's still a good story. There's a new 30 minute documentary about it on YouTube, well worth the watch if you're interested in that sort of thing. https://youtu.be/tNV8_4gUBBY
Watched this yesterday, it's definitely worth checking out.
These stunts show he is only in it for attention. And it doesn't paint him in a positive light.
I used to know what the LDs stood for. But now? Not a clue.
They are ruining Oxfordshire and with people like Moran in senior positions, they are just seen locally as opportunistic bandwagon jumpers.
They are not putting forward a positive agenda. They don't deserve to succeed.
I don’t understand why they are not full on “reverse Ukip”, and campaigning draped in the EU flag. Plenty of young votes in that, and as we can see from some media commentary, some people will happily choose to believe that almost anything was caused by Brexit.
I guess because it's impossible.
Some sort of UK embraces the EU is possible and potentially popular, but only in the UK. Any plausible reintroduction represents a complete impossibility politically here in the UK.
This is (in my view) the current natural state - there's no need to be alarmed. We had a bit of a foreign dalliance and whilst it was fun, it's over.
I agree it’s impossible, but they have an advantage. They don’t have to actually deliver it. They could (and from their perspective should) be saying all sorts of nonsense like “if we rejoin the EU we will have XBn extra to spend on the NHS”. It’s a lie but some voters would lap it up.
I think the problem is that strategy might get them a lot of votes spread out, but it would put off enough voters that it would make it harder for them to win more seats.
Quite: the LD strategy, which has been pretty efficient in the past, is to be as inoffensive to as large a number of voters as possible, and therefore to be a repository for anti-x tactical voting.
It causes no end of problems if they actually gain any power. But it's pretty good at getting you a few MPs.
I do wonder though, if they stopped being such cynical fannies and stood for something solid would they have a better chance of breaking the status quo and becoming the second party (because they need to become the second party if they eventually want to become the first party).
Imagine if they stood this year on rejoin, end student fees, free glass coffee tables for all, UBI etc - it’s about as realistic as the offer by any party but they are so obsessed with not offending anyone that they don’t inspire anyone.
I mean, otherwise what’s the point of them if they don’t push for power.
Once people tactically vote against you then, as a third or fourth party, you are dead.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
And of course Gloucestershire has Cromwell Street.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Houses are certainly not cheap here in Oxfordshire. Earlier this afternoon, I was carrying an orange diamond stakeboard and about to put it up when a chap from the (expensive) house next to it spoke to me. He pointed out it was a shared driveway, so he thought he should also have a say.
I apologised that we hadn't known that and offered to remove it. He considered for a second and then said that although he'd not have requested it himself, he had no issues with it or us and I should let it stay. He added, "But if it was a Tory one, you'd have been told where to shove it."
The difference with 2019 is noticeable and positive - and yet we did well around here in 2019, anyway!
A truly remarkable (and unrepresentative) percentage of PB posters appear to be Lib Dem activists.
They've always been a persistent menace on the Site, Tim, but it changes over time.
Some of us old 'uns can remember when The Tory Herd was a thing, but now it has become an endagered species.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I currently live in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, which used to be fairly firmly Conservative. Unlike many constituencies however, in 2019 the Conservative majority reduced considerably, with the new Conservative MP, Anthony Browne, having just a 4.3% margin from the Lib Dems.
South Cambridgeshire council (borders not coincident with the constituency) is very strongly Lib Dem (25 majority).
The constituency has been considerably redrawn for this general election, and am I now in the new St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire constituency.
Interestingly, Anthony Browne is standing in this general election, but not in his old seat of South Cambridgeshire, but in the new seat of St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire.
I still expect him to lose, and the Lib Dems to gain St Neots and mid Cambridgeshire. Because of the way the constituencies have been split, I have no idea who will win South Cambridgeshire...
The Economist - who only give the Lib Dems 22 seats - have South Cambridgeshire as a Lib Dem gain, 10pp ahead of Labour and Tories tied on 25%.
They forecast St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire as a tight Conservative hold 29-28-24. To be honest, a lot of the Economist numbers look really implausible.
Which makes me wonder: does PB's St John, have a relation named St Neot?
St Neot was an extraordinary Cornish holy man famed for his wisdom and virtue (extraordinary indeed?)
EDIT - He was a highborn (dare I say) Anglo-Saxon, but made his name and ended his days as a man of Cornwall.
Excerpt from his wiki bio:
"About 975 AD a monastery was founded at Eynesbury (in what is now the town of Saint Neots), and in order to increase the lucrative visits of pilgrims, Neot's remains were abstracted from Cornwall without permission, and lodged at Eynesbury.
The anticipated public attention followed, and the district around the priory and monastery became known as St Neots: that is the name of the chief town there now.
Controversy arose later as to whether Neot's remains were truly at the Priory, but this was confirmed by Anselm, the Prior of the French Abbey of our Lady of Bec, in Normandy, which was the superior institution to Eynesbury and St Neots after the Norman Conquest. Anselm took Neot's jawbone back to Bec."
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
And of course Gloucestershire has Cromwell Street.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
Fred west came from Gloucester for a reason. Everyone nice is in Cheltenham
Worcester isn’t so bad
Hereford is rather handsome (it’s where I grew up) but it needs money
There are quite a few nice cathedral cities. Wells is a jewel. Ely. York of course. Salisbury
But we have contrived to ruin too much of a beautiful country with amazing townscapes by
1. Resisting Hitler and paying the price in the war 2. Not rebuilding like it was as the poles did 3. Socialist town planners who should still be thrown down tin mines if we can find them 4. Continuing to build shit! 5. Mass immigration without a thought for the many consequences thereof
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
And of course Gloucestershire has Cromwell Street.
*Used to* have the relevant house. Probably just as well it was demolished. Apart from the obvious, imagine the Home Buyer's Report after West and then Plod had done their worst.
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
And **** tne national finances.
To be fair, IHT doesn’t bring in all that much in the general scheme of things. Is it wise to abolish it at this point? Probably not. Will the Tories pledge to do so? Absolutely. It’s their last Big Idea that could have some breakthrough.
The only problem is that they need to at least be seen to be making a plausible effort to fund it.
There are several types of Government grants still payable to students. They could begin by abolishing those. Tax reliefs for very rich pensioners and their heirs AND cruelty to the young - that ought to please the Tory core twice over.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
And **** tne national finances.
To be fair, IHT doesn’t bring in all that much in the general scheme of things. Is it wise to abolish it at this point? Probably not. Will the Tories pledge to do so? Absolutely. It’s their last Big Idea that could have some breakthrough.
The only problem is that they need to at least be seen to be making a plausible effort to fund it.
There are several types of Government grants still payable to students. They could begin by abolishing those. Tax reliefs for very rich pensioners and their heirs AND cruelty to the young - that ought to please the Tory core twice over.
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
"[Jacob Rees-Mogg], the Tory MP who is known to only wear a traditional double-breasted suit, also explained why he hates bananas - describing them as 'slimy and unpleasant'.
The veteran Brexiteer also avoids vegetables and instead fuels his body on the campaign trail with instant coffee so thick it has the consistency of 'tar'."
Daily Mail
There's a satisfying symmetry in the way JRM's opinion of bananas is so faithfully reciprocated by the bananas themselves.
I wonder if Sunak will go and live in America after the election where he worked in the past although financially he does not need to.
Presumably, assuming he keeps his seat, he'll have to stay an MP for a civilised period before resigning.
I'm sure he and Liz Truss (assuming she survives) can exchange pleasantries in the lobby. IF he loses, the ex-Prime Ministers club will consist of Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson and Sunak .
One for the anoraks - has there been any other period when EIGHT former Prime Ministers have been alive?
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
Feel free to pop in for a beer some time, Boulay.
All the places you mention are gorgeous, particularly Stanton which has a remarkable Church. Its clock has no face, because the shepherds couldn't see it anyway (and probably didn't know how to tell the time) but would know when the service was due by the ringing of the bells. It also has the original walls with a ledge at shoulder height. There were no pews in those days of course but the weak were allowed to go to the wall for support - hence the famous saying, the original connotation of which is slightly different.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
Jill Carenza? And the Cotswold?
Yup. Was absolutely invaluable ahead of rides in India, SA and Botswana - slightly different surroundings obvs but good long three hour rides at a good pace but also good cross country and jumps lessons so I knew I was ok in any surprise situations.
All worthwhile sitting in a sweaty mess outside the Jockey in Broadway afterwards sinking pints over lunch.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
And of course Gloucestershire has Cromwell Street.
For 90’s music fans from Gloucester.
I once made the effort to go to the highly reputed but deliberately awkward chippy in Crookes, Sheffield, which still fried its chips in beef dripping or something. They only opened for about 90 minutes a day, and you had to queue up outside at opening time. I vaguely remember that the fish and chips were indeed good, but more singular was that they were wrapped in newspaper - but newspaper which was entitely blank apart from each sheet having a picture of Fred and Rose West, about 10cm by 10cm. I never returned.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
Feel free to pop in for a beer some time, Boulay.
All the places you mention are gorgeous, particularly Stanton which has a remarkable Church. Its clock has no face, because the shepherds couldn't see it anyway (and probably didn't know how to tell the time) but would know when the service was due by the ringing of the bells. It also has the original walls with a ledge at shoulder height. There were no pews in those days of course but the weak were allowed to go to the wall for support - hence the famous saying, the original connotation of which is slightly different.
I want Stanton Court which is up for sale at the moment. My idea of heaven is living there and wandering across to my cricket ground and enjoying a cricket tea and many beers on an august afternoon.
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
And of course Gloucestershire has Cromwell Street.
For 90’s music fans from Gloucester.
I once made the effort to go to the highly reputed but deliberately awkward chippy in Crookes, Sheffield, which still fried its chips in beef dripping or something. They only opened for about 90 minutes a day, and you had to queue up outside at opening time. I vaguely remember that the fish and chips were indeed good, but more singular was that they were wrapped in newspaper - but newspaper which was entitely blank apart from each sheet having a picture of Fred and Rose West, about 10cm by 10cm. I never returned.
Yes I expect a much lower swing in the end to the LDs than to Labour. Sunak appeals more to bluewall seats than Boris did but much less to redwall and Leave seats.
In the end they will probably get about 30-40 seats and of course in 2019 most Labour voters in LD target seats already tactically voted LD while LD voters didn't tactically vote Labour in Labour target seats because of Corbyn but likely will vote Labour now Starmer has replaced him.
If I was Rishi I would have a manifesto commitment to raise the IHT threshold to £2 million to minimise losses to the LDs in the wealthy South and Home Counties in the Eastern region
We may now be at (or long past) the point where your policy announcements make any difference.
You’re not going to win. So try the invested bribe route to shore up blue wall conservatives and they’re going to ignore you. Ravings of a madman and all that.
If you or your parents live in a 1-£2 million+ house in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks, Epping Forest, Uttlesford or Brentwood and Ongar, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, West Sussex, Hampshire or West London, Finchley or Bromley you certainly won't ignore a massive windfall that could come your way, even if possibly leaning LD or Starmer Labour it would probably keep you voting Tory. Most families with assets over the £325k IHT threshold would also welcome the fact that rises to £2 million even beyond Osborne's exemption for the family home for married couples up to £1 million.
It would likely be enough to get the Tories closer to 30% than 20-25% at least
Houses are certainly not cheap here in Oxfordshire. Earlier this afternoon, I was carrying an orange diamond stakeboard and about to put it up when a chap from the (expensive) house next to it spoke to me. He pointed out it was a shared driveway, so he thought he should also have a say.
I apologised that we hadn't known that and offered to remove it. He considered for a second and then said that although he'd not have requested it himself, he had no issues with it or us and I should let it stay. He added, "But if it was a Tory one, you'd have been told where to shove it."
The difference with 2019 is noticeable and positive - and yet we did well around here in 2019, anyway!
A truly remarkable (and unrepresentative) percentage of PB posters appear to be Lib Dem activists.
I fully expect now lib dems to have even less mp's after the next ge....but hey its greener which they love instead of a minibus they can get their mps in a smart car
Tunbridge Wells Tories select Neil Mahapatra as their candidate.
'Neil Mahapatra is businessman & entrepreneur. Managing partner, since 2012, of Kingsley Capital which builds new businesses from scratch. Previously J Rothschild Capital Magt & Morgan Stanley. Fought Sedgefield 2010; president, Oxford Union, 2001.' https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1796957283072557374
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Due to my youthful ignorance, not being from the UK and school at Winchester I had assumed that all cathedral cities would be like Winchester. I remember being shocked by Gloucester and Worcester at how basic they were. Hereford was quaint but I strangely expected them to be identikit. And everyone is built like brick shit-houses, families of five walking side by side taking up the entire width of high streets.
And of course Gloucestershire has Cromwell Street.
For 90’s music fans from Gloucester.
I once made the effort to go to the highly reputed but deliberately awkward chippy in Crookes, Sheffield, which still fried its chips in beef dripping or something. They only opened for about 90 minutes a day, and you had to queue up outside at opening time. I vaguely remember that the fish and chips were indeed good, but more singular was that they were wrapped in newspaper - but newspaper which was entitely blank apart from each sheet having a picture of Fred and Rose West, about 10cm by 10cm. I never returned.
Tunbridge Wells Tories select Neil Mahapatra as their candidate.
'Neil Mahapatra is businessman & entrepreneur. Managing partner, since 2012, of Kingsley Capital which builds new businesses from scratch. Previously J Rothschild Capital Magt & Morgan Stanley. Fought Sedgefield 2010; president, Oxford Union, 2001.' https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1796957283072557374
The guy who couldn't wait to move away sounded more interesting to be honest.
Since pb.com appears to be in cheerful wittering mode (and hooray for that), I will volunteer that in a little while, for the third and final time, I will read the final chapter of The House at Pooh Corner to a daughter. I may not be much use for anything later.
Since pb.com appears to be in cheerful wittering mode (and hooray for that), I will volunteer that in a little while, for the third and final time, I will read the final chapter of The House at Pooh Corner to a daughter. I may not be much use for anything later.
I wonder if Sunak will go and live in America after the election where he worked in the past although financially he does not need to.
Presumably, assuming he keeps his seat, he'll have to stay an MP for a civilised period before resigning.
I'm sure he and Liz Truss (assuming she survives) can exchange pleasantries in the lobby. IF he loses, the ex-Prime Ministers club will consist of Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson and Sunak .
One for the anoraks - has there been any other period when EIGHT former Prime Ministers have been alive?
Haven't past ex-PMs considered a "civilised period" to include collecting the pay cheques, while pissing off to do speeches, rather than spending much time in Parliament?
I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now. I was wrong.
Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.
I don't think the debate plays to the strengths of SKS. He is, what my late mother would describe as, a "Big Wooden Bugger". His talents are remorseless aggregation of marginal gains and party management not snappy comebacks and the piercing bon mot.
Sunak doesn't appear to have any discernible strengths apart from that one time he was able to fit in a suitcase so he could do that robbery in Ocean's Eleven. The debates probably won't change much.
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
I think a majority of Tory MPs voted against. It passed on opposition votes.
It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
David Cameron also supported, and brought into law, gay marriage. People's opinions on these things change with time, as is clear in polling on the issue.
And the danger is; opinions can continue to change. Progress (*) does not just have to be in one direction. In the USA we are seeing the start of a repealing of rights. We could easily see the same occur in this country, given time.
Personally, I find that prospect frigthening. Many others are salivating at the thought.
I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now. I was wrong.
Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.
Sunak won't win a debate. Truss became PM because he looked so shabby in the debate they had. I don't think he's awful, just rather hopeless.
Such as it is, it's very bad news. There must be something beyond 'not this'!
That’s not really true is it? Truss became PM because she promised Tory unicorns and Sunak stood there (admittedly in his antsy way) and said - if you do that it will fuck the economy, so Truss won the membership.
He wasn’t shabby, he’s arsey in a way of bright people who can’t connect but don’t understand why others don’t see things the way they do, but Truss wasn’t a titan of debating. She just sold a dream that was really a nightmare (her ideas might have worked in an economic situation such as Blair inherited and a massive shake up would have been possible but not where we were).
I was expecting the polls to have shifted a bit by now. I was wrong.
Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.
Sunak won't win a debate. Truss became PM because he looked so shabby in the debate they had. I don't think he's awful, just rather hopeless.
Such as it is, it's very bad news. There must be something beyond 'not this'!
He looked sneery and patronising vs Truss - lots to sneer at and patronise of course. Starmer will be useless and it will be like a game where you blindfold two people and they have to find and then hit each other.
My feeling is that the conservative party has come to the end of its life. They have a massive political legacy and a platform to do whatever they want, but they have nothing to offer. If they get the chance to reinvent themselves it will need to become a totally different party. My sense is that the space they need to occupy is as a radical right wing party, to become the dominant antithesis to 'woke centrism'. Although people will be outraged at this idea ultimately it is the only logical place for the tories to go and it may get them back to power quickly.
It may be unpopular to state on a website like this with a generally ageing demographic but what you call ‘woke centrism’ is what used to be known simply as ’the centre ground’.
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
What are your views on allowing large-scale immigration from countries with diametrically opposed views on this question?
That’s all that’s left to me now. Just travelling the world for free writing about amazing places for money
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Envy. I am in Gloucester.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
The docks aren't bad.
Quite like Gloucester. Far prefer it to Cheltenham.
Soft spot for Malvern myself. I'd go there rather than Cheltenham for a day out. Do rsegret not having walked along the Ship Canal.
Yes, I like Malvern and its surrounds a lot. Also keen on Evesham, which is a ten minute drive from me. Worcestershire strikes me as a more interesting county than Glos, but all counties have their nice spots.
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
I love the Gloucestershire/Worcestershire borders area. I used to fly over for riding weekends from a stables in Stanton near Broadway so I could do big cross country rides and good eventing lessons ahead of rides in strange countries so would stay in Broadway, Stow, Chipping Campden etc. if I was to move to the UK countryside then it’s definitely where I would choose to live. Love Winchcombe as well to tip a hat to your home town.
Feel free to pop in for a beer some time, Boulay.
All the places you mention are gorgeous, particularly Stanton which has a remarkable Church. Its clock has no face, because the shepherds couldn't see it anyway (and probably didn't know how to tell the time) but would know when the service was due by the ringing of the bells. It also has the original walls with a ledge at shoulder height. There were no pews in those days of course but the weak were allowed to go to the wall for support - hence the famous saying, the original connotation of which is slightly different.
I want Stanton Court which is up for sale at the moment. My idea of heaven is living there and wandering across to my cricket ground and enjoying a cricket tea and many beers on an august afternoon.
And you wouldbe a short (but steep) walk from The Mount, one of the best pubs in the area. It's a popular start point for the walk to Snowshill, another beauty spot. Frankly, it's all beautiful around there.
Housing in the Cotswolds is not outrageously expensive, but prices definitely warmed up after Covid. Stow is very nice, despite the tourists. I can recommend both Upper and Lower Swell from personal experience. Don't bother with Guiting Power. It's wonderful, but most of the property is rented by the local Trust, and it is virtually impossible to buy. (Race fans will recognise it as the site of the racing yard where Twiston-Davies trains; the local pub, The Hollow Bottom is a must, race fan or not.)
Comments
I met Shadsy and told him about my smarkets problem and assured him that my overall book is in profit.
I have this niggling suspicion that he did not believe me.
You are too much of a cynic @Luckyguy1983 that you assumed it was just me being politically biased.
If more money on public services is your goal you will be voting Labour, if you want change regardless you are voting Labour, if you want fewer immigrants above all you will be voting Reform.
The only thing that might shift some waverers who voted Conservative in 2019 back to the Tories is the prospect of a big tax cut, a cut to NI hasn't worked so it will have to be an IHT cut proposal
The government has spent billions it doesn't have on NI cuts to zero electoral benefit. Thinking that an IHT cut now is an electoral elixir... I can understand cargo cult cosplay of Churchill or Thatcher... but of George Osborne?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
No. I'm not having that.
The biggest single poll bounce for the Tories this century came between Theresa May announcing her resignation after the Euro elections - and the 2019 GE election result. You don't even have to rely on opinion polls. You've got actual votes. But here it is in graphical form, anyways;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
In the same way that Brighton got Londonised and then burst to infect the rest of Sussex, a similar thing has been going on with Cambridge and southern Cambridgeshire.
For the Conservatives to survive in Ely/Huntingdon/St Neots etc, they need to come through the middle of a three horse race.
It causes no end of problems if they actually gain any power. But it's pretty good at getting you a few MPs.
There had been a bit of an increase for Labour during their conference the week before, but during the Tory conference they were only back to where they were before the labour conference. It wasn't till Brown announced he wasn't having an election, followed by lots of "bottle" articles, that the polls turned blue.
Certainly the fact that Brown's bounce ended after that point, was almost universally blamed on his own actions - I don't remember any mention of IHT being the difference maker.
I apologised that we hadn't known that and offered to remove it. He considered for a second and then said that although he'd not have requested it himself, he had no issues with it or us and I should let it stay. He added, "But if it was a Tory one, you'd have been told where to shove it."
The difference with 2019 is noticeable and positive - and yet we did well around here in 2019, anyway!
Imagine if they stood this year on rejoin, end student fees, free glass coffee tables for all, UBI etc - it’s about as realistic as the offer by any party but they are so obsessed with not offending anyone that they don’t inspire anyone.
I mean, otherwise what’s the point of them if they don’t push for power.
"[Jacob Rees-Mogg], the Tory MP who is known to only wear a traditional double-breasted suit, also explained why he hates bananas - describing them as 'slimy and unpleasant'.
The veteran Brexiteer also avoids vegetables and instead fuels his body on the campaign trail with instant coffee so thick it has the consistency of 'tar'."
Daily Mail
But give professional travel writing a go. I think you have the makings of a writer in you.
And not an ounce of sympathy?
Bets with noted justification is also appealing.
The app is downloading And there we go.
All of a sudden it’s horribly complicated.
I’ve downloaded oddschecker.
I’ll start there.
Game of two halves. Best cathedral anywhere, but jesus the rest of it..
Personally would be quite willing to sign over my pic rights (rarely exercised) to the "dog for scale" fund. Personally think you are rather over-rating the personality of George Bush the Younger.
You are correct re: folksiness, perhaps the greatest of his personal & political gifts, in strong contrast to his father George Bush the Elder. In fact, it appears that the son did everything he could to be as different as possible. For example, Texas twang and rooting for the Aggies of Texas A&M; the latter especially rich & rare for a Yale man. (What Freud or Jung would say about that, I leave to your own judgement.)
W was throughout his career in politics (starting with working on Elder's campaigns) and business ( Watched this yesterday, it's definitely worth checking out.
Don hallucination theory vindicated
Some of us old 'uns can remember when The Tory Herd was a thing, but now it has become an endagered species.
Sad, but 'tis nature's way.
https://support.discoveryplus.com/gb/Answer/Detail/000004056
Except Essex.
[Actually that's not true. Finchingfield and Frinton I remember with affection, but don't get me started on the A13.]
St Neot was an extraordinary Cornish holy man famed for his wisdom and virtue (extraordinary indeed?)
EDIT - He was a highborn (dare I say) Anglo-Saxon, but made his name and ended his days as a man of Cornwall.
Excerpt from his wiki bio:
"About 975 AD a monastery was founded at Eynesbury (in what is now the town of Saint Neots), and in order to increase the lucrative visits of pilgrims, Neot's remains were abstracted from Cornwall without permission, and lodged at Eynesbury.
The anticipated public attention followed, and the district around the priory and monastery became known as St Neots: that is the name of the chief town there now.
Controversy arose later as to whether Neot's remains were truly at the Priory, but this was confirmed by Anselm, the Prior of the French Abbey of our Lady of Bec, in Normandy, which was the superior institution to Eynesbury and St Neots after the Norman Conquest. Anselm took Neot's jawbone back to Bec."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Neot_(monk)
Worcester isn’t so bad
Hereford is rather handsome (it’s where I grew up) but it needs money
There are quite a few nice cathedral cities. Wells is a jewel. Ely. York of course. Salisbury
But we have contrived to ruin too much of a beautiful country with amazing townscapes by
1. Resisting Hitler and paying the price in the war
2. Not rebuilding like it was as the poles did
3. Socialist town planners who should still be thrown down tin mines if we can find them
4. Continuing to build shit!
5. Mass immigration without a thought for the many consequences thereof
It is 20 years since the Labour Party repealed Section 28. It had been brought in by Mrs Thatcher in 1988 to promote ’true family values’. The section of the Local Government Act stated that local authorities:
“Shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship”. [italics mine]
David Cameron repeatedly supported Section 28.
I have given one example from history but there could be many others.
It is a sign of the rabbit hole the tories have gone down that they really believe they now represent anything other than a fringe mindset of the right, some would say ‘far right’. Their anti-woke culture wars have taken them far from the centre, where the vast majority in this country happily dwell.
So by all means let the Conservative Party occupy that radical right wing if you like, but they will never return to power in this country if they stay out there.
Oh, and happy Pride Month ...
There are several types of Government grants still payable to students. They could begin by abolishing those. Tax reliefs for very rich pensioners and their heirs AND cruelty to the young - that ought to please the Tory core twice over.
'Which makes me wonder: does PB's St John, have a relation named St Neot?'
Nio, but he is related to St Tone, the spiritual presence of the former PM.
I'm sure he and Liz Truss (assuming she survives) can exchange pleasantries in the lobby. IF he loses, the ex-Prime Ministers club will consist of Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson and Sunak .
One for the anoraks - has there been any other period when EIGHT former Prime Ministers have been alive?
All the places you mention are gorgeous, particularly Stanton which has a remarkable Church. Its clock has no face, because the shepherds couldn't see it anyway (and probably didn't know how to tell the time) but would know when the service was due by the ringing of the bells. It also has the original walls with a ledge at shoulder height. There were no pews in those days of course but the weak were allowed to go to the wall for support - hence the famous saying, the original connotation of which is slightly different.
All worthwhile sitting in a sweaty mess outside the Jockey in Broadway afterwards sinking pints over lunch.
I was wrong.
Sunak is just awful. I can barely stand to watch him now. But, in theory, the debate is the next moment for a course correction.
I never returned.
'Neil Mahapatra is businessman & entrepreneur. Managing partner, since 2012, of Kingsley Capital which builds new businesses from scratch. Previously J Rothschild Capital Magt & Morgan Stanley. Fought Sedgefield 2010; president, Oxford Union, 2001.'
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1796957283072557374
Such as it is, it's very bad news. There must be something beyond 'not this'!
Sunak doesn't appear to have any discernible strengths apart from that one time he was able to fit in a suitcase so he could do that robbery in Ocean's Eleven. The debates probably won't change much.
It is something that I have genuinely changed my mind on. I couldn't see the point, but am now strongly in favour.
Personally, I find that prospect frigthening. Many others are salivating at the thought.
(*) However you define that word...
He wasn’t shabby, he’s arsey in a way of bright people who can’t connect but don’t understand why others don’t see things the way they do, but Truss wasn’t a titan of debating. She just sold a dream that was really a nightmare (her ideas might have worked in an economic situation such as Blair inherited and a massive shake up would have been possible but not where we were).
Housing in the Cotswolds is not outrageously expensive, but prices definitely warmed up after Covid. Stow is very nice, despite the tourists. I can recommend both Upper and Lower Swell from personal experience. Don't bother with Guiting Power. It's wonderful, but most of the property is rented by the local Trust, and it is virtually impossible to buy. (Race fans will recognise it as the site of the racing yard where Twiston-Davies trains; the local pub, The Hollow Bottom is a must, race fan or not.)