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Liberal Democrat: Recovery or Resurgence? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
imageLiberal Democrat: Recovery or Resurgence? – politicalbetting.com

2019 wasn’t all bad for the Lib Dems. Yes, they won just 8 seats and lost their leader. Which was pretty poor. But the vote became much targeted. The Lib Dems gained more than doubled their number of second place seats (from 38 to 94).

Read the full story here

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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    The Lib Dems might be Winning Here, outside their candidate's house, but they've just sent him (well, "Dear Friend") a card asking him to help campaign in Winchester!


    Lib Dems: winning here!
    Royal Mail: parking illegally!
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034

    Not going to lie, loved choosing this pic.

    Spoiled for choice.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,333
    edited June 1
    What a great thread @Quincel

    Thank you for it. Am inclined to agree with your conclusion but that’s not why I like the thread. This kind of informed, balanced, thread is why this site is so good.

    So where’s the betting value for LibDem gains? I’m expecting some gains in Surrey, perhaps momentously so. But generally have them finishing around the 30 seat mark.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    I guess Harrogate is the only LibDem target in this part of the country.

    IIRC, they had a pact with the Greens last time. No Green in Harrogate and no LibDem in Skip & Rip.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034
    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,237
    Farooq said:

    The Lib Dems might be Winning Here, outside their candidate's house, but they've just sent him (well, "Dear Friend") a card asking him to help campaign in Winchester!


    Lib Dems: winning here!
    Royal Mail: parking illegally!
    Foreign billionaires coming over here and breaking all the rules!
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034
    Heathener said:

    What a great thread @Quincel

    Thank you for it. Am inclined to agree with your conclusion but that’s not why I like the thread. This kind of informed, balanced, thread is why this site is so good.

    So where’s the betting value for LibDem gains? I’m expecting some gains in Surrey, perhaps momentously so. But generally have them finishing around the 30 seat mark.

    I do think this is a difficult question, thanks to the sheer extent of Tory weakness. If they lose by 13-15% on the night I'll be quietly pretty confident the LDs fall below 40 seats. But if they lose by 20%+, maybe only polling 20% nationally, I could see so many dominoes fall that the LDs rise a bit higher. And that is looking distinctly possible now.

    On the other hand, even the MRP from yesterday has the LDs on 39 before a tactical voting adjustment. Maybe if tactical voting does top our fairly low these bets will win even in that scenario.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395
    Really well-reasoned article. Davey is doing his best to get attention in the campaign. Beating the SNP to regain third is the big target, but at least half of the work might be done by SNP losses rather than Lib Dem gains.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,333
    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    Is there any chance of someone running us a detailed betting thread on Scottish constituencies sometime?

    Gtg, but thank you again for this thread. It’s very helpful.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 1
    Striking thought:

    In all of England and Wales at the last election they won only one seat north of the Thames - Westmoreland and Lonsdale.*

    They've won Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire since, although I expect them to lose the latter again.

    Where else in England could they target, realistically? @SandyRentool suggests Harrogate. Round here, maybe Solihull if Julian Knight has decided to split the vote, although that means overtaking Labour. Cheltenham and the Cotswolds are mentioned. But where else might come into play?

    It doesn't seem to me a very long list since they blew up their carefully assembled strength in uni seats by voting through the Browne review nonsense.
    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    Edited because I hadn't even seen that when I wrote this!

    *Had forgotten St Albans (sorry @Verulamius ) but the essential point stands.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034

    Really well-reasoned article. Davey is doing his best to get attention in the campaign. Beating the SNP to regain third is the big target, but at least half of the work might be done by SNP losses rather than Lib Dem gains.

    Yes, I'd back the LDs as third party at evens very happily, probably down to 1/2 or so, on the basis that they might get 50+ MPs but there's got to be a 50% chance or more that the SNP get under 25-30.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034
    ydoethur said:

    Striking thought:

    In all of England and Wales at the last election they won only one seat north of the Thames - Westmoreland and Lonsdale.

    They've won Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire since, although I expect them to lose the latter again.

    Where else in England could they target, realistically? @SandyRentool suggests Harrogate. Round here, maybe Solihull if Julian Knight has decided to split the vote, although that means overtaking Labour. Cheltenham and the Cotswolds are mentioned. But where else might come into play?

    It doesn't seem to me a very long list since they blew up their carefully assembled strength in uni seats by voting through the Browne review nonsense.

    They are probably targeting Sheffield Hallam, though I'm very skeptical of their prospects there.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034
    Heathener said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    Is there any chance of someone running us a detailed betting thread on Scottish constituencies sometime?

    Gtg, but thank you again for this thread. It’s very helpful.
    It won't be me, but someone should. Thanks for the thanks.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Thanks @Quincel for another very informative thread header.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    I suspect 40 might be their limit, mainly because of tactical voting confusion and Labour not playing ball. Maybe even 35. I suspect the old pals act is too apparent in some areas.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    Heathener said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    Is there any chance of someone running us a detailed betting thread on Scottish constituencies sometime?

    Gtg, but thank you again for this thread. It’s very helpful.
    I plan to do so once the SOPNs are confirmed as I want to see how many Greens and Alba candidates are standing and where.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,614
    edited June 1
    @Quincel, while I think you are right in your betting approach, there is an element of splitting-the-difference, which worries me. If one set of polls using one methodology comes up with a low number, and another comes up with a high one, then one set is wrong and the skill lies in picking the right one. By betting on "under 40" (and by implication selecting the lower estimates) you've adopted the right strategy and well done as per usual. But I'm wondering if picking one of "under 30" or "over 50" would be better.

    Gaagh, I'm tying myself in knots. Ignore me... :(
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    The MRP poll seems unbelievable.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    edited June 1
    One thing I will say for Sir Ed Davey is that he's not going for any unrealistic targets like the silly 2005 decapitation strategy.

    I know Mike said he knows some Lib Dems who thought they could have ended up on 75-90 MPs had they have been more realistic.

    There was a great potential to take seats off Labour after Iraq but Kennedy decided to go after high profile Tories.

    I think Davey is utterly focussed on getting back third party status.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    This Times article is an eye-opener:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/conservatives-anti-immigration-reform-social-media-campaign-labour-pqb2btt28

    If you've assumed that the cash the Tories and Labour are throwing at social media will make a difference, you're completely wrong.

    The two skint parties, Reform and the SNP, are smashing it where it matters - Facebook.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518

    I suspect 40 might be their limit, mainly because of tactical voting confusion and Labour not playing ball. Maybe even 35. I suspect the old pals act is too apparent in some areas.

    Sadly in my seat, the Libdems are nowhere, and the only course of action is to vote lab to get Crabb out. (sideways hopefully...)

    :smile:
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Lembit and his Cheeky Girls?
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,704
    edited June 1
    Currently in national polls the Lib Dems have lost around one quarter of their vote share in 2019 (from 11.8% in GB to around 9%) and about one sixth in R&W's Blue Wall southern seats (from 27.4% to 23%, where Lab is now on 34%).

    Unless the Tory vote doesn't collapse by anything like as much as currently polling suggests, I would still expect the LDs to overtake the Tories in most and maybe all of the equivalent of the 24 old seats held by the Tories in 2019 with a margin over the LDs that's in single % digits. There may be one or two of those where they are beaten by Labour coming from third place. That would give the LDs about 30 seats in total. The LDs might also pick up a few seats where they are more than 10% behind the Tories. However, on current polling there are relatively few seats where they are starting from a notional 2nd place allowing for post election swings, so the ones where they are the genuine tactical voting choice are quite limited this election. And so I think Pip is right and the LDs will (just) total less than 40 seats.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    viewcode said:

    @Quincel, while I think you are right in your betting approach, there is an element of splitting-the-difference, which worries me. If one set of polls using one methodology comes up with a low number, and another comes up with a high one, then one set is wrong and the skill lies in picking the right one. By betting on under 40 (and by implication selecting the lower estimates) you've adopted the right strategy and well done as per usual. But I'm wondering if picking one of "under 30" or "over 50" would be better.

    Gaagh, I'm tying myself in knots. Ignore me... :(

    I think this makes sense. You think the middling Lib Dem seat results are something of an unstable middle?
    I find myself oscillating wildly between the two extremes of 20 and 60, skipping right over 40 like it doesn't exist. So I think I'm seeing it the same way as you, but can't quite nail down why. Quincel's header is very good, but hasn't settled that instability in my mind.

    Right now my thought pattern is the Lib Dems will tail off the football starts to dominate. Gut feeling.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Lembit and his Cheeky Girls?
    Good Lord, I'd forgotten all that nonsense.
    Such innocent times. Such horrible music.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    The difficulty is working out how tactical voting works when the primary opposition party is super dominant. You could envisage a situation where tactical voting largely backfires and whilst the LDs pick up a dozen or so seats in a lot of places either Labour leapfrog them or the Tories narrowly win because the two opposition parties split the difference. You can also imagine a scenario where tactical voting kicks in and the LDs pick up 30-40 seats and damage the Tories elsewhere allowing Labour extra gains.

    Who knows which is more likely, but I do wonder how sophisticated the voters would need to be to allow tactical voting to kick in in a truly significant way.
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    I've experienced a once in a lifetime event. An actual warm and sunny day in Wales.
    We're in Machynlleth for the RedBull mountain biking and it's effing lovely.
    The Noom of supermarket carparks?


  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    Southport?
    Labour.
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 700
    Farooq said:

    The Lib Dems might be Winning Here, outside their candidate's house, but they've just sent him (well, "Dear Friend") a card asking him to help campaign in Winchester!


    Lib Dems: winning here!
    Royal Mail: parking illegally!
    I'm sure you mean Dirty sleazy Royal Mail on the slide!
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    NOTTINGHAM NORTH & KIMBERLEY (Con target 27): Caroline Henry has been picked as Conservative candidate. She was the local Nottinghamshire police & crime commissioner from 2021 until her defeat last month. While PCC she was convicted of five speeding offences.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Wales used to be Liberal, because Liberals were Chapel and so were 75% of the Welsh.

    As Chapel-going waned in the 1960s, the Liberals remained the party of the Welsh language and Welsh devolution (which they proposed first in 1936 if memory serves) much more so than Labour, and people still voted for them in rural areas where the Welsh language was strong.

    As the Welsh language ceased to be so prominent an issue due to the Welsh Language Act and Plaid Cymru emerged to take their mantle as the party of Welshness, they rebuilt themselves as a university party (Ceredigion and Cardiff) and a NIMBY party (Radnor and Montgomery).

    When they ceased to be much use as Nimbies and blew up their appeal to students - what was left?
    Interesting comparison with Scotland - where there was a strong correlation of the Free Kirk (f. 1843) and the Secession Kirks with Liberals. Though for two somewhat different reasons: landowner/peasantry conflict in the Highlands and Islands and LOwland countryside more generally, and businessmen, middle classes and improving working classes in Lowland cities and towns and industrial villages. And also a strong Home Rule message into the later C20. But Labour and the SNP took the latter vote to some extent, and the LDs were l eft in sheep country (Northern and Western Isles, and elsewhere). Add a couple of unis and that's prsetty much the current situation.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    edited June 1
    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    Southport?
    Labour.
    Oops.

    It’s the antibiotics talking.
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    booksellerbookseller Posts: 440
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Wales used to be Liberal, because Liberals were Chapel and so were 75% of the Welsh.

    As Chapel-going waned in the 1960s, the Liberals remained the party of the Welsh language and Welsh devolution (which they proposed first in 1936 if memory serves) much more so than Labour, and people still voted for them in rural areas where the Welsh language was strong.

    As the Welsh language ceased to be so prominent an issue due to the Welsh Language Act and Plaid Cymru emerged to take their mantle as the party of Welshness, they rebuilt themselves as a university party (Ceredigion and Cardiff) and a NIMBY party (Radnor and Montgomery).

    When they ceased to be much use as Nimbies and blew up their appeal to students - what was left?
    That's a nice analysis.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395
    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    @Quincel, while I think you are right in your betting approach, there is an element of splitting-the-difference, which worries me. If one set of polls using one methodology comes up with a low number, and another comes up with a high one, then one set is wrong and the skill lies in picking the right one. By betting on under 40 (and by implication selecting the lower estimates) you've adopted the right strategy and well done as per usual. But I'm wondering if picking one of "under 30" or "over 50" would be better.

    Gaagh, I'm tying myself in knots. Ignore me... :(

    I think this makes sense. You think the middling Lib Dem seat results are something of an unstable middle?
    I find myself oscillating wildly between the two extremes of 20 and 60, skipping right over 40 like it doesn't exist. So I think I'm seeing it the same way as you, but can't quite nail down why. Quincel's header is very good, but hasn't settled that instability in my mind.

    Right now my thought pattern is the Lib Dems will tail off the football starts to dominate. Gut feeling.
    One of the scars I picked up on the coalface of a very numerical science was that it's very hard to escape the normal distribution.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Wales used to be Liberal, because Liberals were Chapel and so were 75% of the Welsh.

    As Chapel-going waned in the 1960s, the Liberals remained the party of the Welsh language and Welsh devolution (which they proposed first in 1936 if memory serves) much more so than Labour, and people still voted for them in rural areas where the Welsh language was strong.

    As the Welsh language ceased to be so prominent an issue due to the Welsh Language Act and Plaid Cymru emerged to take their mantle as the party of Welshness, they rebuilt themselves as a university party (Ceredigion and Cardiff) and a NIMBY party (Radnor and Montgomery).

    When they ceased to be much use as Nimbies and blew up their appeal to students - what was left?
    Good Lord, just looking back through past results. 2010-2015 was a hard fall for the Lib Dems. 20% down to 6.5%. Brutal.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238

    The MRP poll seems unbelievable.

    Anyone around in '97 will hope it's not. That feeling of relief that those horrors would never intrude into our lives again was tangible. You could smell the fresh air. We walked with a spring in our step. I bought myself a new car!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,395
    Local knowledge is crucial in interpreting the tactical situation. In the three seats that I'm fairly familiar with, all of them with LDs 2nd last time and I think 3rd in 2015, I see Labour bidding to win one (Didcot and Wantage), the LDs close to winning a second and the Tories probably holding the third. A lot depends on tactical decisions between now and pollling day and plenty of anti-Tory voters frankly see little difference between Lab or LD and will go with the perceived flow. The LDs are IMHO spreading themselves too thinly given their weak national starting point.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    In the absence of nationwide, "air war" Con-to-LD shifts, there are two mechanisms that win Lib Dem seats.

    The obvious one is the hyperlocal hyperintense campaign that the Lib Dems do very well. The places where that is happening ought to be visible from space by now. I suspect that the old "where we work we win" adage will apply to those.

    The other set is places where Con loses lots of votes to Lab, in line with the national pattern. Enough votes for Con to undertake second placed Lib Dem, but not enough for Lab to overtake both.
    Rural Oxfordshire might have fallen into that category, except that the swing now looks like being too big. Hence the awkwardness we see here from time to time.
    There must be a set of inequalities that define where those seats are. Lib within about twenty of Con, Lab more than twenty further behind? So about 55:35:10 last time?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    @Quincel, while I think you are right in your betting approach, there is an element of splitting-the-difference, which worries me. If one set of polls using one methodology comes up with a low number, and another comes up with a high one, then one set is wrong and the skill lies in picking the right one. By betting on under 40 (and by implication selecting the lower estimates) you've adopted the right strategy and well done as per usual. But I'm wondering if picking one of "under 30" or "over 50" would be better.

    Gaagh, I'm tying myself in knots. Ignore me... :(

    I think this makes sense. You think the middling Lib Dem seat results are something of an unstable middle?
    I find myself oscillating wildly between the two extremes of 20 and 60, skipping right over 40 like it doesn't exist. So I think I'm seeing it the same way as you, but can't quite nail down why. Quincel's header is very good, but hasn't settled that instability in my mind.

    Right now my thought pattern is the Lib Dems will tail off the football starts to dominate. Gut feeling.
    One of the scars I picked up on the coalface of a very numerical science was that it's very hard to escape the normal distribution.
    Yes, that's what causing my dissonance over this. It doesn't feel rational that I'm flipping between end-member predictions without going through the middle. Yet I am. It's probably some cognitive bias wrecking my mental model of the probabilities.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Wales used to be Liberal, because Liberals were Chapel and so were 75% of the Welsh.

    As Chapel-going waned in the 1960s, the Liberals remained the party of the Welsh language and Welsh devolution (which they proposed first in 1936 if memory serves) much more so than Labour, and people still voted for them in rural areas where the Welsh language was strong.

    As the Welsh language ceased to be so prominent an issue due to the Welsh Language Act and Plaid Cymru emerged to take their mantle as the party of Welshness, they rebuilt themselves as a university party (Ceredigion and Cardiff) and a NIMBY party (Radnor and Montgomery).

    When they ceased to be much use as Nimbies and blew up their appeal to students - what was left?
    Good Lord, just looking back through past results. 2010-2015 was a hard fall for the Lib Dems. 20% down to 6.5%. Brutal.
    In 2005 they were the second party in Wales at Westminster with four seats.

    In 2010 they lost one.

    In 2015 they lost two more.

    In 2017 they lost their last seat.

    Since then they won the 2019 Radnor by-election but haven't even looked like winning a seat at an election. They're only second in the two Powys seats and I'd not be surprised to see them come third in both of those next time.

    They also went from having consistently six AMs in 1999, 2003 and 2007 and being power brokers in 1999 and 2007 to five in 2012 and just one in 2017.

    They have wiped themselves out and I can't see how they come back. List PR might see them get maybe three or four seats in the Senedd but out of 96 that's an irrelevance.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,614
    Eabhal said:

    This Times article is an eye-opener:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/conservatives-anti-immigration-reform-social-media-campaign-labour-pqb2btt28

    If you've assumed that the cash the Tories and Labour are throwing at social media will make a difference, you're completely wrong.

    The two skint parties, Reform and the SNP, are smashing it where it matters - Facebook.

    Why campaign on Boomerbook? It's only populated by grannies and mad older uncles who believe everything they read... oh. I see. (Gulps)
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    I've experienced a once in a lifetime event. An actual warm and sunny day in Wales.
    We're in Machynlleth for the RedBull mountain biking and it's effing lovely.
    The Noom of supermarket carparks?


    Are you coming to Llandudno ?

    I believe the town is closing for this event sometime next week

    And it is a lovely day as well
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    edited June 1
    Thank you Quincel. This is a subject close to my heart, and closer still to my wallet.

    When Sporting opened its book on GE seats I was disappointed that they seemed to have pitched the figures about right. If they had got anything wrong, I thought,it was possibly that they had put the LDs a bit too high at 36-40. When two other illustrious punters from this illustrious site, Casino Royale and RCS, expressed the same opinion I entered the market as a seller. Now I see you can be added to the panoply. I also see that since I put my money down, the market has moved seven points the wrong way to 43-47. Why?

    There has been no discernible increase in the LD poll rating. Davey may have made splash of sorts, but not the kind that readily sways voters. There is nothing I can see to cause a LD surge, yet if Sporting is right and Sir Ed brings home 45 seats or thereabouts, that would be one heck of a result for the Yellow Peril.

    I am puzzled. Perhaps you are right though and the answer lies in starting from a stronger base. Maybe last time round wasn't so bad after all.

    Maybe you should follow your attack theory, and be a buyer not a seller.

    Perhaps.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248

    The MRP poll seems unbelievable.

    It does seem unbelievable.

    Except in the context of a government that has annoyed all but a handful of its potential voters over the last five years.

    In that light, if it turns out to be the result, I think my response will be "Gosh. Are there any more of those delicious canapés?"
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,977

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    I'd dispute Southport, where the Lib vote halved between 2017 and 2019, and Labour outpolled them by nearly 3:1 (39.0% vs 13.5%).

    Even at local level LD success in Sefton is somewhat deflated by a fair wodge of West Lancashire in the constituency.

    Lab / Con battle for me.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    edited June 1
    ydoethur said:

    Striking thought:

    In all of England and Wales at the last election they won only one seat north of the Thames - Westmoreland and Lonsdale.*

    They've won Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire since, although I expect them to lose the latter again.

    Where else in England could they target, realistically? @SandyRentool suggests Harrogate. Round here, maybe Solihull if Julian Knight has decided to split the vote, although that means overtaking Labour. Cheltenham and the Cotswolds are mentioned. But where else might come into play?

    It doesn't seem to me a very long list since they blew up their carefully assembled strength in uni seats by voting through the Browne review nonsense.

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    Edited because I hadn't even seen that when I wrote this!

    *Had forgotten St Albans (sorry @Verulamius ) but the essential point stands.
    There are areas where the LDs run councils. There is strong representation on Harborough, Oadby and Wigston for example. On MRP that is a Lab gain, but I think a reasonable place for LDs to build support. Oadby Hindutva vote may be significant for Con here, more so than Leicester East. Indeed the Tories could slip through the middle in a 3 way marginal. I think LD win unlikely at 26, but Con value at 2.75.

    I think Con value on both IoW seats too at similar prices at Bet365. There will be a strong Green vote on the Island and LD will be standing again.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395
    ToryJim said:

    The difficulty is working out how tactical voting works when the primary opposition party is super dominant. You could envisage a situation where tactical voting largely backfires and whilst the LDs pick up a dozen or so seats in a lot of places either Labour leapfrog them or the Tories narrowly win because the two opposition parties split the difference. You can also imagine a scenario where tactical voting kicks in and the LDs pick up 30-40 seats and damage the Tories elsewhere allowing Labour extra gains.

    Who knows which is more likely, but I do wonder how sophisticated the voters would need to be to allow tactical voting to kick in in a truly significant way.

    I think this is right. Regardless of how much desire there is for tactical voting among the voters there are considerable practical hurdles - the new boundaries, the large swings in vote share.

    What would help it would be if the anti-Tory parties themselves made most of the judgement for the voters, and targeted their own campaigns in complimentary ways so that the viewer could vote tactically by seeing which anti-Tory party was campaigning locally.

    However, it's often not actually in the parties interests to do this, certainly not for Labour, and they might prefer to run spoiler campaigns in a couple of dozen seats to reduce the number of Liberal Democrat gains.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the Tory campaign was doing its damnedest to make sure there were enough tactical voting websites to prevent a consensus on what the tactical vote for each seat was. Though they might not need to do anything.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thrust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    Wales used to be Liberal, because Liberals were Chapel and so were 75% of the Welsh.

    As Chapel-going waned in the 1960s, the Liberals remained the party of the Welsh language and Welsh devolution (which they proposed first in 1936 if memory serves) much more so than Labour, and people still voted for them in rural areas where the Welsh language was strong.

    As the Welsh language ceased to be so prominent an issue due to the Welsh Language Act and Plaid Cymru emerged to take their mantle as the party of Welshness, they rebuilt themselves as a university party (Ceredigion and Cardiff) and a NIMBY party (Radnor and Montgomery).

    When they ceased to be much use as Nimbies and blew up their appeal to students - what was left?
    Good Lord, just looking back through past results. 2010-2015 was a hard fall for the Lib Dems. 20% down to 6.5%. Brutal.
    In 2005 they were the second party in Wales at Westminster with four seats.

    In 2010 they lost one.

    In 2015 they lost two more.

    In 2017 they lost their last seat.

    Since then they won the 2019 Radnor by-election but haven't even looked like winning a seat at an election. They're only second in the two Powys seats and I'd not be surprised to see them come third in both of those next time.

    They also went from having consistently six AMs in 1999, 2003 and 2007 and being power brokers in 1999 and 2007 to five in 2012 and just one in 2017.

    They have wiped themselves out and I can't see how they come back. List PR might see them get maybe three or four seats in the Senedd but out of 96 that's an irrelevance.
    One's so used to thinking subconsciously as one drives through somewhere like the Borders 'ah, sheep, that means LDs' - that the current Welsh and Scottish situation feels very odd. Like lamb without mint sauce/redcurrant jelly.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    ydoethur said:

    Thank you Quincel. This is a subject close to my heart, and closer still to my wallet.

    When Sporting opened its book on GE seats I was disappointed that they seemed to have pitched the figures about right. If they had got anything wrong, I thought,it was possibly that they had put the LDs a bit too high at 36-40. When two other illustrious punters from this illustrious site, Casino Royale and RCS, expressed the same opinion I entered the market as a seller. Now I see you can be added to the panoply. I also see that since I put my money down, the market has moved up seven points the wrong way to 43-47. Why?

    There has been no discernible increase in the LD poll rating. Davey may have made splash of sorts, but not the kind that readily sways voters. There is nothing I can see to cause a LD surge, yet if Sporting is right and Sir Ed brings home 45 seats or thereabouts, that would be one heck of a result for the Yellow Peril.

    I am puzzled. Perhaps you are right though and the answer lies in starting from a stronger base. Maybe last time round wasn't so bad after all.

    Maybe you should follow your attack theory, and be a buyer not a seller.

    Perhaps.

    I'm assuming they just think the Tories are doing so badly the Lib Dems will pick up seats by default.
    I think a far better targeting strategy this time too, both geographically and in terms of policies, water especially.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    edited June 1
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    No - I live here and experience the failure of our NHS and our NHS board in constant crisis, and this is Education today in Wales

    BBC News - Pisa: Wales slumps to worst school test results
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67616536
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 1
    Also in Wales - I think the only council where the LDs have double-digit numbers of councillors is Powys. There they are leading a coalition supported by Labour. Again, that's a dramatic drop. For example, they always used to lead Ceredigion council even though the 'Independents' were officially the largest single group.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    Roger said:

    The MRP poll seems unbelievable.

    Anyone around in '97 will hope it's not. That feeling of relief that those horrors would never intrude into our lives again was tangible. You could smell the fresh air. We walked with a spring in our step. I bought myself a new car!
    You irresistibly suggest a version of Alan Partidge if he were a socialist, Roger.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    I thought the Coalition might do wonders for the LibDems but Clegg's incredible stupidity over tuition fees ruined them. Then staying with the Coalition until Parliament was dissolved was an equally incredible tactical error, coupled with naivety over Cameron and Osbornes ruthlessness.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    No - I live here and experience the failure of our NHS and our NHS board in constant crisis, and this is Education today in Wales

    BBC News - Pisa: Wales slumps to worst school test results
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67616536
    Yes, but other people who live in Wales keep voting for Labour.
    What I'm saying is part of your surprise at that is probably from your own understand of how things are really going. You can't chalk it all up to everyone else being ignorant and you being the only one who knows what's going on. You are susceptible to confirmation bias too.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    edited June 1

    Thank you Quincel. This is a subject close to my heart, and closer still to my wallet.

    When Sporting opened its book on GE seats I was disappointed that they seemed to have pitched the figures about right. If they had got anything wrong, I thought,it was possibly that they had put the LDs a bit too high at 36-40. When two other illustrious punters from this illustrious site, Casino Royale and RCS, expressed the same opinion I entered the market as a seller. Now I see you can be added to the panoply. I also see that since I put my money down, the market has moved seven points the wrong way to 43-47. Why?

    There has been no discernible increase in the LD poll rating. Davey may have made splash of sorts, but not the kind that readily sways voters. There is nothing I can see to cause a LD surge, yet if Sporting is right and Sir Ed brings home 45 seats or thereabouts, that would be one heck of a result for the Yellow Peril.

    I am puzzled. Perhaps you are right though and the answer lies in starting from a stronger base. Maybe last time round wasn't so bad after all.

    Maybe you should follow your attack theory, and be a buyer not a seller.

    Perhaps.

    My gut feeling is the market movement is nowt to do with the LD's.
    It's a function of the Tory failure, thus far, to make any of the widely anticipated polling uptick.
    Edit. See @ydoethur got there earlier and more succinctly.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,791
    LibDems 7.4 of Bf (ex) to get 25 seats or less.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    Striking thought:

    In all of England and Wales at the last election they won only one seat north of the Thames - Westmoreland and Lonsdale.

    They've won Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire since, although I expect them to lose the latter again.

    Where else in England could they target, realistically? @SandyRentool suggests Harrogate. Round here, maybe Solihull if Julian Knight has decided to split the vote, although that means overtaking Labour. Cheltenham and the Cotswolds are mentioned. But where else might come into play?

    It doesn't seem to me a very long list since they blew up their carefully assembled strength in uni seats by voting through the Browne review nonsense.

    They are probably targeting Sheffield Hallam, though I'm very skeptical of their prospects there.
    They should do well in the Cotswolds.

    Alex Chalk is, sadly, a goner in Cheltenham. Clifton-Browne is under pressure in Cotswolds South. Even Laurence Robertson isn't entirely secure in Tory Tewkesbury.
  • Options
    JamarionJamarion Posts: 49
    edited June 1
    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    I think my body needs another poll. This feels like when I developed a severe sugar dependency in my early 20s.

    We got ourselves all worked up over that Electoral Calculus last night, Opinium this evening can't be as interesting...can it?
    This guy works at Opinium

    @CWP_Weir

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept
    We need some sort of moderation of poll ramping. The pollsters have worked out that it drives traffic and it's just going to get worse.

    (Not your fault Scott)
    Totally agree.

    I wish we could also strip out the partisan stuff from people who have openly admitted to campaigning for a particular party, or at least politely ask them to tone it down a few notches.

    More serious is when we start to get postal returns and into the count when people clearly attempt to influence the markets for personal gain with misleading posts.

    There were some iffy examples during the London mayoral elections including, I’m sorry to say, on here.
    Might I have been too hasty in buying a Labour majority of >500 seats at 1.00001?

    What about Reform and Green voteshares of >10% and >5%?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Jamarion said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    I think my body needs another poll. This feels like when I developed a severe sugar dependency in my early 20s.

    We got ourselves all worked up over that Electoral Calculus last night, Opinium this evening can't be as interesting...can it?
    This guy works at Opinium

    @CWP_Weir

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept
    We need some sort of moderation of poll ramping. The pollsters have worked out that it drives traffic and it's just going to get worse.

    (Not your fault Scott)
    Totally agree.

    I wish we could also strip out the partisan stuff from people who have openly admitted to campaigning for a particular party, or at least politely ask them to tone it down a few notches.

    More serious is when we start to get postal returns and into the count when people clearly attempt to influence the markets for personal gain with misleading posts.

    There were some iffy examples during the London mayoral elections including, I’m sorry to say, on here.
    Might I have been too hasty in buying a Tory majority of >500 seats at 1.00001?
    I think it is safe to say that nobody expects *that* result.
  • Options
    JamarionJamarion Posts: 49
    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    Liz Truss is keeping her name in people's minds and therefore her market value higher than it would otherwise be. Which is more than you can say for Theresa May. No flies on Liz.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    No - I live here and experience the failure of our NHS and our NHS board in constant crisis, and this is Education today in Wales

    BBC News - Pisa: Wales slumps to worst school test results
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67616536
    Yes, but other people who live in Wales keep voting for Labour.
    What I'm saying is part of your surprise at that is probably from your own understand of how things are really going. You can't chalk it all up to everyone else being ignorant and you being the only one who knows what's going on. You are susceptible to confirmation bias too.
    Anger over Thatcher and the miner's conflict still persists in the Valleys and of course Labour dominate

    And where have I said everyone else is ignorant and I am the only one who knows what's going on

    Indeed if you follow @Ydoethur you will see I am not alone in my criticism of Cardiff
  • Options
    JamarionJamarion Posts: 49
    ydoethur said:

    Jamarion said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    I think my body needs another poll. This feels like when I developed a severe sugar dependency in my early 20s.

    We got ourselves all worked up over that Electoral Calculus last night, Opinium this evening can't be as interesting...can it?
    This guy works at Opinium

    @CWP_Weir

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept
    We need some sort of moderation of poll ramping. The pollsters have worked out that it drives traffic and it's just going to get worse.

    (Not your fault Scott)
    Totally agree.

    I wish we could also strip out the partisan stuff from people who have openly admitted to campaigning for a particular party, or at least politely ask them to tone it down a few notches.

    More serious is when we start to get postal returns and into the count when people clearly attempt to influence the markets for personal gain with misleading posts.

    There were some iffy examples during the London mayoral elections including, I’m sorry to say, on here.
    Might I have been too hasty in buying a Tory majority of >500 seats at 1.00001?
    I think it is safe to say that nobody expects *that* result.
    I meant to type Labour rather than Tory! (Now corrected.)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    To be fair to Truss, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis aren’t dead down to her lies.
    True, but if you are in office 70 odd times longer…
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,308
    edited June 1

    I've experienced a once in a lifetime event. An actual warm and sunny day in Wales.
    We're in Machynlleth for the RedBull mountain biking and it's effing lovely.
    The Noom of supermarket carparks?


    I believe the Bude Tunnel is still rated as one of the UK's top attractions. Possibly sarcastically, but still.

    Leon can disagree, but I think Britain does modernity noom very well. I have experienced no noom at the Glastonbury Tor or Durham Cathedral, but was practically floored by Stendhal Syndrome the first time I drove past that bit on the M25 when the Heathrow planes practically land right in front of you. Seeing a larger than life jumbo leg it across your field of vision while traversing with three lanes on one side of you, four on the other, blasting down the motorway at 90 miles an hour (*in the era before there being a camera at every bloody gantry) was a sight to behold.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
    Granted, many people are habitual voters. But then again, we've seen in this thread how some parties have had dramatic changes in fortune directly in response to widespread public opinion of failure or betrayal. The Lib Dem's lost two thirds of their vote in Wales in a single election. Wales's Labour vote has persisted, though. Part of that must be that perceptions of failure are not as commonplace in the wider Welsh population as Big_G would imagine. Or, at a pinch, that people don't believe that changing to another party will address such putative failures. What seems obvious to Big_G is far from obvious to many other people. And that might or might not be because Big_G sees more clearly.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Jamarion said:

    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    Liz Truss is keeping her name in people's minds and therefore her market value higher than it would otherwise be. Which is more than you can say for Theresa May. No flies on Liz.
    In 10 years time May will have a far better reputation than Truss.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,050
    Excellent piece, Pip.

    Right now, I'm betting on individual constituencies to seek out value. I find the under/overs too much honest to fortune with odds that just aren't attractive enough for me.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,614
    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    @Quincel, while I think you are right in your betting approach, there is an element of splitting-the-difference, which worries me. If one set of polls using one methodology comes up with a low number, and another comes up with a high one, then one set is wrong and the skill lies in picking the right one. By betting on under 40 (and by implication selecting the lower estimates) you've adopted the right strategy and well done as per usual. But I'm wondering if picking one of "under 30" or "over 50" would be better.

    Gaagh, I'm tying myself in knots. Ignore me... :(

    I think this makes sense. You think the middling Lib Dem seat results are something of an unstable middle?
    I find myself oscillating wildly between the two extremes of 20 and 60, skipping right over 40 like it doesn't exist. So I think I'm seeing it the same way as you, but can't quite nail down why...
    @LostPassword , @Farooq

    There is a name for this phenomenon and my bloody swiss-cheese memory has forgotten it! If you have a line of five or seven identical pictures and ask people to pick their favourite, they will pick the middle, even though there's no reason to.

    In BrexitRef, one group of pollsters said it would be a solid Remain win, another said it would be a narrow Leave win, and we all split the difference and we[1] were wrong to do so.

    In samples from a bimodal distribution, the central limit theorem will still give a number in the middle (and the sample mean will still vary normally - that's the point of the CLT), but the middle is not the highest-probability event.

    The "pictures" example explain why people plump for the middle, the bimodality explains why the CLT gives unreliable results.

    Notes
    [1] Honour compels me to point out that I called it right :)
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    No - I live here and experience the failure of our NHS and our NHS board in constant crisis, and this is Education today in Wales

    BBC News - Pisa: Wales slumps to worst school test results
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67616536
    They've all taken a nosedive since 2018
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    ToryJim said:

    Jamarion said:

    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    Liz Truss is keeping her name in people's minds and therefore her market value higher than it would otherwise be. Which is more than you can say for Theresa May. No flies on Liz.
    In 10 years time May will have a far better reputation than Truss.
    What do you mean in ten years time? May already has a fat better reputation than Truss!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited June 1
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
    Granted, many people are habitual voters. But then again, we've seen in this thread how some parties have had dramatic changes in fortune directly in response to widespread public opinion of failure or betrayal. The Lib Dem's lost two thirds of their vote in Wales in a single election. Wales's Labour vote has persisted, though. Part of that must be that perceptions of failure are not as commonplace in the wider Welsh population as Big_G would imagine. Or, at a pinch, that people don't believe that changing to another party will address such putative failures. What seems obvious to Big_G is far from obvious to many other people. And that might or might not be because Big_G sees more clearly.
    The second option is more plausible.

    I would also add I think the actual Welsh vote for the Libs dwindled away over decades. Indeed, the fact they held on to their strength until the 1960s suggests habit as much as anything. By the finish, many of their voters (in my experience at least) were English incomers.

    It would be nice to see Labour suffer such a collapse but having successfully predicted 23 of the last 0 Labour failures in Wales I will not hold my breath.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    To be fair to Truss, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis aren’t dead down to her lies.
    True, but if you are in office 70 odd times longer…
    You think all prime ministers are inevitably going to murder high six figures of brown people, given time, and truss just dodged that particular bullet?
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034

    Excellent piece, Pip.

    Right now, I'm betting on individual constituencies to seek out value. I find the under/overs too much honest to fortune with odds that just aren't attractive enough for me.

    I'm mostly doing the same, trying to pull a few together for a piece or decide on one or two to focus on.
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 440

    The MRP poll seems unbelievable.

    It does seem unbelievable.

    Except in the context of a government that has annoyed all but a handful of its potential voters over the last five years.

    In that light, if it turns out to be the result, I think my response will be "Gosh. Are there any more of those delicious canapés?"
    As long as we avoid one of the most cringeworthy moments in recent political television history: that of Paddy Ashdown being handed a hat to eat on the morning after the 2015 election by Andrew Neil. Seemed to sum up perfectly the naivity of the LDs in coalition.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Hmm this is appalling. Although might indicate a modicum of trouble for Labour. I suspect they’ll still win this seat but make your own judgement.

    https://x.com/estwebber/status/1796863927302680878?s=61
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
    Granted, many people are habitual voters. But then again, we've seen in this thread how some parties have had dramatic changes in fortune directly in response to widespread public opinion of failure or betrayal. The Lib Dem's lost two thirds of their vote in Wales in a single election. Wales's Labour vote has persisted, though. Part of that must be that perceptions of failure are not as commonplace in the wider Welsh population as Big_G would imagine. Or, at a pinch, that people don't believe that changing to another party will address such putative failures. What seems obvious to Big_G is far from obvious to many other people. And that might or might not be because Big_G sees more clearly.
    The second option is more plausible.

    I would also add I think the actual Welsh vote for the Libs dwindled away over decades. Indeed, the fact they held on to their strength until the 1960s suggests habit as much as anything. By the finish, many of their voters (in my experience at least) were English incomers.

    It would be nice to see Labour suffer such a collapse but having successfully predicted 23 of the last 0 Labour failures in Wales I will not hold my breath.
    Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh conservatives is hopeless and I agree about the second option
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395

    The MRP poll seems unbelievable.

    It does seem unbelievable.

    Except in the context of a government that has annoyed all but a handful of its potential voters over the last five years.

    In that light, if it turns out to be the result, I think my response will be "Gosh. Are there any more of those delicious canapés?"
    My single biggest data-driven cause for doubt is that Starmer's leadership ratings are historically very poor when compared to other opposition leaders who have gone on to win.

    So one thing I am particularly looking out for is whether these ratings improve as a post hoc rationalisation for a decision to vote Labour despite Starmer.

    I think there's been a little movement in that direction in the polls to date, but it's one reason why I'm looking forward to the Ipsos polls during the campaign.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 937
    I am helping the Lib Dems in two Conservative held seats which in normal circumstances should stay Conservative perhaps with a swing to Labour. In both almost the only literature is from the Lib Dems with two excellent leaflets in each constituency and our canvassing has shown a massive drop in Conservative support "Well I won't be voting Conservative" being a typical response. Labour don't appear to be trying and in one have only just selected a candidate.

    Winning will be a stretch and may depend on the next five weeks activity plus how good our GOTV is - I expect a lot of Conservative abstentions.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,686
    edited June 1
    megasaur said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    To be fair to Truss, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis aren’t dead down to her lies.
    True, but if you are in office 70 odd times longer…
    You think all prime ministers are inevitably going to murder high six figures of brown people, given time, and truss just dodged that particular bullet?
    Certainly in the unlikely dystopian alternative history of IDS being PM.
    With Truss one couldn’t be sure if she’d got the right country in which to murder high six figures of brown people.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
    Mind, Buchan was a Unionist politician, albeit originally a son of the Free manse. But wasn't that in a novel? So it might be unfair to ascribe that sentiment to him.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    A soupçon of time travelling breakaway post Soviet exclave noom

    The car, the church, the T34 in the background. The statue of Lenin is behind the trees



  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
    Granted, many people are habitual voters. But then again, we've seen in this thread how some parties have had dramatic changes in fortune directly in response to widespread public opinion of failure or betrayal. The Lib Dem's lost two thirds of their vote in Wales in a single election. Wales's Labour vote has persisted, though. Part of that must be that perceptions of failure are not as commonplace in the wider Welsh population as Big_G would imagine. Or, at a pinch, that people don't believe that changing to another party will address such putative failures. What seems obvious to Big_G is far from obvious to many other people. And that might or might not be because Big_G sees more clearly.
    The second option is more plausible.

    I would also add I think the actual Welsh vote for the Libs dwindled away over decades. Indeed, the fact they held on to their strength until the 1960s suggests habit as much as anything. By the finish, many of their voters (in my experience at least) were English incomers.

    It would be nice to see Labour suffer such a collapse but having successfully predicted 23 of the last 0 Labour failures in Wales I will not hold my breath.
    Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh conservatives is hopeless and I agree about the second option
    Who could forgot this bon not from the now banned @YBarddCwsc

    Ships bearing Ivory, apes, and peacocks are yours.

    Apart from we don't have any in Wales.

    So you're getting slate, Andrew 'RT' Davies and red kites instead.


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4305928/#Comment_4305928
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    I think they vote as much out of habit as anything else. A bit like John Buchan's acid comment on the Highlands: 'The people here are the most stubborn reactionaries on the face of the globe, but they've been voting Radical since the days of John Knox.'
    Mind, Buchan was a Unionist politician, albeit originally a son of the Free manse. But wasn't that in a novel? So it might be unfair to ascribe that sentiment to him.
    It was one of the Leithan novels (John Macnab) so probably reflected his own views.

    Albeit, he did have the Unionist candidate win in the end...
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    Do you think more than a tiny percentage can name two Lib Dem MPs? Apart from Ed Davey I think I'm stuck.Wouldn't it be an idea if he got himself a tandem?
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    ToryJim said:

    Jamarion said:

    ToryJim said:

    Liz Truss thinks she was a better PM than Blair. I swear to God there isn’t a cell too padded or a straitjacket too tight.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1796828953136566356?s=61

    Liz Truss is keeping her name in people's minds and therefore her market value higher than it would otherwise be. Which is more than you can say for Theresa May. No flies on Liz.
    In 10 years time May will have a far better reputation than Truss.
    What do you mean in ten years time? May already has a fat better reputation than Truss!
    Yes, there is no unit of time for which the statement is false.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Quincel said:

    ydoethur said:

    A great thread header.

    Not least, for letting TSE choose *that* photo...

    Main thThey rust of around 22-30ish seems logical as well. I'll be very surprised if they hit 40.

    I'm also confident they'll win no seats in Wales, where they always used to have a few 'bankers.'

    The extent to which the Lib Dems are likely to become almost a solely Southern/Scottish party is remarkable. We'll see on election night but they could win even 40-50 seats with only a handful outside those areas.
    A tribute to the Union,

    I do expect the Lib Dems to have a goodish night in the North West, Hazel Grove seems nailed on, then add in Southport and Cheadle.
    It's Wales that's the different country when it comes to Lib Dems. No idea why they're so unpopular there.
    They were very popular in the past, especially in local government, but it looks as if Wales will not only have any Lib Dems but also Conservative mps, which is extraordinary when Wales Labour have a terrible record on the NHS and education and governance in general
    Yet people keep voting for them. Maybe part of your surprise is that you're constantly dipping into hostile, partisan, and selective sources?
    No - I live here and experience the failure of our NHS and our NHS board in constant crisis, and this is Education today in Wales

    BBC News - Pisa: Wales slumps to worst school test results
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67616536
    Yes, but other people who live in Wales keep voting for Labour.
    What I'm saying is part of your surprise at that is probably from your own understand of how things are really going. You can't chalk it all up to everyone else being ignorant and you being the only one who knows what's going on. You are susceptible to confirmation bias too.
    Anger over Thatcher and the miner's conflict still persists in the Valleys and of course Labour dominate

    And where have I said everyone else is ignorant and I am the only one who knows what's going on

    Indeed if you follow @Ydoethur you will see I am not alone in my criticism of Cardiff
    I didn't say that you said it, all along I've been saying that PART of your surprise is probably your own exaggerated sense of the failures. Because that's the only explanation other than you're right and everyone else is wrong. I'm seeking to explain your surprise in the likeliest way. Because it's not just you, confirmation bias is extremely common.

    When you say that it's "extraordinary" that large numbers of people do a certain thing, that should ring a little alarm bell that says that it might actually the opposite, it's perfectly ordinary, but you are surprised because your views are somewhat misaligned with that large number of people for some reason. Again, very normal. Most people end up surprised about one thing or another, because their information is imperfect. Which brings me back to the possible cause of your surprise, that you are consuming information in a different pattern to all those other people.
This discussion has been closed.