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The Lib Dems could win a seat from 4th – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663
    edited May 24

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    Welding is one of those trades that sounds simple to uninitiated. Then you learn what its about. I watched a chap welding titanium. Then I had a go. There is a reason they pay him what they do....

    My solution simple - make the tertiary system degrees for all. Lets have Professors of Welding at Oxford.

    Apart from the status issue, it will begin to encourage mixing of skills in modular degrees. Greats with a side order of plumbing?

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.
  • Options
    You can see how much apprenticeships are looked down upon based on how the Tories have approached them. They are at best badly run and managed, at worst actively set people up badly for work.

    If we want to get people out of university and into the job market, apprenticeships need to be seen as tier 1 option not a "you're too stupid to get a degree" option, which they still are.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,767
    edited May 24
    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,717
    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    I recall having this discussion at the the time and I was called insane, all for saying anyone surely has the right to appeal. Several people I spoke to wanted to give her the death penalty.
    I concur

    This friend of mine is straight down the line honest and lucid. He written a very good book about his remarkable experiences and hair raising cases, he’s seen plenty of genuine nutters and has no problem with life meaning life etc. He’s seen real evil

    But if he is perturbed by this conviction then so am I. He’s read all the documents (I haven’t)
    Are you also troubled by the fact that the New Yorker magazine article was blocked in the UK?
    It is?!?! There’s so much news I missed that. Also I don’t like thinking about this case BECAUSE it troubles me that she might be innocent
    I hated the verdict in the first place and that was before the Post Office and contaminated blood became front and centre. If there were a few hundred of her she might get justice in twenty or thirty years time
    She might not have to wait as ITV have just started a drama with Sheridan Smith as LL and Toby Jones playing a baby.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,214
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Who would download music these days? People just stream.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,767
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    I recall having this discussion at the the time and I was called insane, all for saying anyone surely has the right to appeal. Several people I spoke to wanted to give her the death penalty.
    I concur

    This friend of mine is straight down the line honest and lucid. He written a very good book about his remarkable experiences and hair raising cases, he’s seen plenty of genuine nutters and has no problem with life meaning life etc. He’s seen real evil

    But if he is perturbed by this conviction then so am I. He’s read all the documents (I haven’t)
    Are you also troubled by the fact that the New Yorker magazine article was blocked in the UK?
    It is?!?! There’s so much news I missed that. Also I don’t like thinking about this case BECAUSE it troubles me that she might be innocent
    "Why are we banned from reading the New Yorker article on Lucy Letby?

    An investigation into the circumstances surrounding Letby’s conviction for murdering seven babies raises important questions about our legal process, writes Alan Rusbridger"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lucy-letby-new-yorker-article-murder-b2546834.html
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    To be honest, it worries me more that we may have ruined an innocent woman's life.
    Unfortunately for Letby, unless the killings start again, she isn't getting out.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,629
    For balance, I have another acquaintance who was professionally involved with the Bamber case. Went in with doubts, came out thinking: definitely guilty
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024

    You can see how much apprenticeships are looked down upon based on how the Tories have approached them. They are at best badly run and managed, at worst actively set people up badly for work.

    If we want to get people out of university and into the job market, apprenticeships need to be seen as tier 1 option not a "you're too stupid to get a degree" option, which they still are.

    I'm not sure that's right Horse. They're pretty highly sought after. Personally, I'd be delighted if my daughters went down the apprenticeship route rather than the degree route.
    Also, the apprentices where I work are clearly among the brightest of their generation.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,606
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope
    ** Exclusive **
    Boris Johnson ally David Frost has been banned from standing as Tory candidate in the general election, I understand.
    Lord Frost was told yesterday that he cannot apply for any of the 93 vacant seats where the party is yet to nominate a candidate for the July 4 general election, according to his friends.
    Frost is a low tax Tory who was one of the architects of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal.
    He was described as "the great Frost" by Johnson for his work on the deal.

    That probably just means he failed the pre-selection process to get approval if he even undertook it. No party is going to let someone waltz in off the street or out of the Civil Service into a Parliamentary candidacy no matter how many tub thumping articles in semi friendly newspapers one pens.
    He is a member of the House of Lords so going to the Commons is a bit of fairly obvious careerism.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,934
    .

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    Welding is one of those trades that sounds simple to uninitiated. Then you learn what its about. I watched a chap welding titanium. Then I had a go. There is a reason they pay him what they do....

    My solution simple - make the tertiary system degrees for all. Lets have Professors of Welding at Oxford.

    Apart from the status issue, it will begin to encourage mixing of skills in modular degrees. Greats with a side order of plumbing?

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.
    Data cabling is the same as welding. It’s one of those skills that God gave someone, that in theory I could do but I’d charge double their rate and achieve half of their output.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,432
    edited May 24
    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    My guess is Letby is probably guilty but not necessarily of all of them. For this casual observer of the criminal justice system, there does seem to be a worrying tendency by prosecutions to handwave about patterns so that if the accused did A, B and C, for which there is clear evidence, they probably also did X, Y and Z where there's almost no evidence but they kind of look the same if you squint a bit so just find them guilty and don't worry your pretty little heads about it.

    So I'd like to have seen an appeal but also to read the New Yorker article when it can be published here.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,011
    edited May 24

    You can see how much apprenticeships are looked down upon based on how the Tories have approached them. They are at best badly run and managed, at worst actively set people up badly for work.

    If we want to get people out of university and into the job market, apprenticeships need to be seen as tier 1 option not a "you're too stupid to get a degree" option, which they still are.

    Um no.

    I know a fair bit about Degree Apprenticeships which is why 3 out of the 6 21-24 year olds on our street ended up in them.

    Some (accountancy, engineering) are however harder to get on to than entry to Oxford - because it’s simply a better option. Take the VOA chartered surveying apprenticeship, 5 years during which you get your chartership and that usually takes 2 years post degree - so you get to the exact same career point at the same time with 3 years more experience, no debt and for all the apprentices twin A knows their own homes

    Yes a lot of companies don’t like them but those companies have never liked training their workers, they just poach the finished article from elsewhere
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,547

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.

    Churchill famously laid bricks, and joined a bricklayers union IIRC
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,075

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Who would download music these days? People just stream.
    I have various films and TV series on Blu-Ray and DVD. Even the Blu-Ray ones rarely come out of their boxes - often the streaming quality is even higher...
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 907
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663
    Sandpit said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    Welding is one of those trades that sounds simple to uninitiated. Then you learn what its about. I watched a chap welding titanium. Then I had a go. There is a reason they pay him what they do....

    My solution simple - make the tertiary system degrees for all. Lets have Professors of Welding at Oxford.

    Apart from the status issue, it will begin to encourage mixing of skills in modular degrees. Greats with a side order of plumbing?

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.
    Data cabling is the same as welding. It’s one of those skills that God gave someone, that in theory I could do but I’d charge double their rate and achieve half of their output.
    Modern civilisation requires a large number of skills that are both intellectual and physical at the same time. Large amounts of book learning combined with getting your hands dirty.

    Societal prejudice has barely caught up. Let alone the education system.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,605
    I already noted this decision.

    The Supreme Court's second decision is Alexander v. SC NAACP. By a 6–3 vote, the majority REVERSES a district court decision that had struck down a South Carolina congressional district as a racial gerrymander. Alito writes; all three liberals dissent.
    https://x.com/mjs_DC/status/1793645098657570864

    I missed this bit where Thomas casts further shade on Brown v Board of Education.

    Justice Thomas' concurrence also takes aim at Brown v. Board of Education, faulting the Supreme Court for taking "a boundless view of equitable remedies" through "extravagant uses of judicial power" to end racial segregation in the 1950s and 60s.
    https://x.com/mjs_DC/status/1793650153657897402

    Towards the end of the 19th C, the Supreme Court, in an act of undeniable judicial activism, gutted the 14th Amendment in the Slaughterhouse Cases decision.

    During the following century, the Supreme Court gradually restored some of the scope of the 14th Amendment with a series of decisions which relied on its Due Process and Equal Protection clauses.

    The current extremists on the Court, like Thomas and Alito, have no problem with the Slaughterhouse decision, but remain keen to overturn the later settled precedents.

    They've killed Roe v. Wade already.
    Brown v. Board of Education, Loving v. Virginia, Obergefell v. Hodges, and Griswold v. Connecticut* are all potentially now in the frame.

    Bush v. Gore, of course, whose 14th Amendment basis was shakier than any of the above, won't be challenged.

    *See Trump's recent musings on contraception.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Who would download music these days? People just stream.
    I download.

    Reason being, I'm 49. I spent my 20s building up quite a large music collection. I own probably 80% of the music I want to listen to. It doesn't make economic sense for me to pay for a spotify subscription - I spend less a month on new music than I would on a subscription for all music. Plus, I pay £9 a month for a mobile phone contract with a fairly minimal data allowance; my music is listened to on an ipod.
    If I was in my teens or 20s the calculus would probably be very different.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,561
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.

    When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.

    Its hardly a contest.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663
    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.

    Churchill famously laid bricks, and joined a bricklayers union IIRC
    He was apparently almost as crap as a brickie as he was as an artist.

    If he'd been trained....
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,392
    edited May 24
    Eabhal said:
    This isn't difficult to deal with.
    'As I promised Figen, if I remain PM after the election then the law will be introduced before the recess on July 23. The labour party, I understand, also support this law and I invite them to match this committment'
    But he's far too shit to do the easy response
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,314
    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,617
    edited May 24
    Yep. It’s just the iTunes chart. D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2

    http://www.itunescharts.net/uk/

    It’s so strange how in election campaigns something happens that steals the show or takes the agenda, and sometimes even becomes the meme for the whole campaign.

    One thinks of Gordon Brown’s mic rant about Gillian Duffy

    or Theresa May’s disastrous welfare launch when we all discovered under questionning that she’s really a robot. Not to mention the car crash conference speech with the banner letters falling down.

    I suspect people will refer back to ‘THAT launch’ on Wednesday for a long time to come.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,547

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.

    Churchill famously laid bricks, and joined a bricklayers union IIRC
    He was apparently almost as crap as a brickie as he was as an artist.

    If he'd been trained....
    The wall he built is still standing :)
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    There are numerous people in prison for murder where everyone knows they havent done it, Michael Stone for example.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2023/nov/22/russell-murders-is-michael-stone-in-prison-for-brutal-crime-he-didnt-commit

    No evidence at all other than an alleged confession to a man now serving life for murder. Michael Stone has served 25 years in prison
    What about Jeremy Bamber ? That seems an odd one too.

    Glyn Razell is another weird one, no body, no witnesses, police failed to find blood in the car he used on the day when they had it is forensics for 3 days, yet a week later when they again took the car in they found the alleged victims blood which was perfectly visible to the naked eye in the boot and footwell. And he managed to drive past 23 CCTV cameras to the alleged abduction site without being picked up on any of them and then drove past them again to dump the body and drive home, but the CCTV cameras did not up his vehicle again.

    He has been in prison for 22 years, if he admitted guilt and provided the location of the body he would be released. He still protests his innocence so claims he does not know where the body is, because of this he will never be released.

    https://insidetime.org/newsround/the-case-of-glyn-razzell/

    Another one is Roger Kearney, no evidence. no witnesses, he was having an affair with the victim and that was enough to convict him. He cant appeal his case because he was convicted on no evidence so cannot challange the evidence as there isn't any. (And some evidence that could have led to the actual killer was destoyed by Hampshire Police)

    https://www.insidejustice.co.uk/about-us/our-cases.php
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,547
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    I'll take this endorsement (not that it comes from an unbiased source).


    She's also retweeted the article advising people to read it. We're one step away from the Lib Dems putting it on a leaflet and true inception being reached.
    needs a bar chart
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,432
    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    It would not be the first miscarriage of justice involving a confession.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,175

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.

    When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.

    Its hardly a contest.
    Spotify is ace
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,547
    Heathener said:

    One thinks of Gordon Brown’s mic rant about Gillian Duffy

    or Theresa May’s disastrous welfare launch when we all discovered under questionning that she’s really a robot. Not to mention the car crash conference speech with the banner letters falling down.

    I think I preferred the actual car crash during one of Gordo's launches
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663

    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    It would not be the first miscarriage of justice involving a confession.

    An interesting parallel

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucia_de_Berk_case

    As discussed here

    https://www.scienceontrial.com/post/shifting-the-data (previously mentioned in this thread)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,605

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    Welding is one of those trades that sounds simple to uninitiated. Then you learn what its about. I watched a chap welding titanium. Then I had a go. There is a reason they pay him what they do....

    My solution simple - make the tertiary system degrees for all. Lets have Professors of Welding at Oxford.

    Apart from the status issue, it will begin to encourage mixing of skills in modular degrees. Greats with a side order of plumbing?

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.
    It's a cultural and a funding issue.
    Technical skills are more highly prized in some manufacturing economies than they are in the UK (and not looked down on as they tend to be here) - but we've also starved the Technical Colleges of serious funding for a very long time.

    I'm not sure how you would best manage a rebalancing of further education towards technical skills, but it should be far more actively debated - as opposed to just "let's cut university funding", or worse, just doing so by fiscal drag, which is what this government has done.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.

    When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.

    Its hardly a contest.
    It isn't every song ever written though, is it? I've got a fair bit in my ipod which isn't on Spotify - including my most played song of the last ten years. ('Big', by New Fast Automatic Daffodils, if you must know. The original single version - not either of the album versions, which are very different beasts.)
  • Options
    WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 27
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    Welding is one of those trades that sounds simple to uninitiated. Then you learn what its about. I watched a chap welding titanium. Then I had a go. There is a reason they pay him what they do....

    My solution simple - make the tertiary system degrees for all. Lets have Professors of Welding at Oxford.

    Apart from the status issue, it will begin to encourage mixing of skills in modular degrees. Greats with a side order of plumbing?

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.
    It's a cultural and a funding issue.
    Technical skills are more highly prized in some manufacturing economies than they are in the UK (and not looked down on as they tend to be here) - but we've also starved the Technical Colleges of serious funding for a very long time.

    I'm not sure how you would best manage a rebalancing of further education towards technical skills, but it should be far more actively debated - as opposed to just "let's cut university funding", or worse, just doing so by fiscal drag, which is what this government has done.
    "Going to the 'tech" was what you did if you were too thick for A-Levels.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    Point 1 was never tested because it was conceded, apparently incorrectly

    The notes are on a par with things I have falsely accused myself of in bouts of severe depression

    What I find most troubling is the anonymity granted to the chief witness against her (who was also her ex lover, a potential suspect, and by the look of it an amateur detective). I can't begin to think of any interest of justice which is being served, which overrides the duty of transparency which I would have thought arose if you were trying to get someone locked up in a small cell for 50 years
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 2,402
    edited May 24
    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    I think the case for the defence is that there were deaths on the ward when she wasn't there, so who did those?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,615

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    I agree.

    But those aren't purely academic courses taken between 18 and 21.
    The starting point for this discussion is the suggestion of funding the abolition of tuition fees by cutting the numbers of students who receive a third-level education.

    Obviously there's a whole argument about what courses to fund and encourage students to take, but this is an area that requires ambition and investment if Britain is going to have the skills to succeed. Not an attitude that says most people don't require a post-18 education.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,767
    More tears at the PO inquiry.
  • Options
    I am quite staggered her notes were allowed to be admitted at all as firm evidence? I think she probably did do it but to have those as a sign of confession seems quite batty to me, hasn't it been quite conclusively proven that even people that didn't do something have often ended up thinking that they did?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,934
    Andy_JS said:

    More tears at the PO inquiry.

    Oh no, how awful this whole process must be for Mrs Vennells…

    F**k off you bitch, you’re looking at serious prison time.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tuition fees could be abolished if the percentage of people going to university was brought back to where it used to be until the 1990s. But I'm guessing that isn't an option.

    Not if Britain wants to be a competitive high-income economy.
    So why are so many graduates complaining about being poor ?

    Perhaps because going to university is a very good for some but the opposite for others.

    And maybe concentrating such educational resources and cost on the 18-22 years reduces the resources available for further education and training at 25, 35, 45 or even 55 ?
    The cost of living is too high.

    Tertiary education in Britain is too focused on academic subjects, as opposed to a broader range of skills. I've mentioned before my Irish brother-in-law who completed a third-level course related to his trade as a welder, and now works for the local distillery, earning enough to have built his own home.

    But these courses need to be at least as well funded as academic degree courses and to have parity of esteem. In Britain they tend to be seen as a second-class option, and aren't seen as going to proper university.

    More than 60% of young Irish people have a third-level education. Britain needs to do the same, to a high standard, if it's going to compete.
    Welding is one of those trades that sounds simple to uninitiated. Then you learn what its about. I watched a chap welding titanium. Then I had a go. There is a reason they pay him what they do....

    My solution simple - make the tertiary system degrees for all. Lets have Professors of Welding at Oxford.

    Apart from the status issue, it will begin to encourage mixing of skills in modular degrees. Greats with a side order of plumbing?

    Imagine architects who can lay bricks. Imagine civil servants who can operate a CNC mill. Imagine a CNC operator who can quote Milton.
    It's a cultural and a funding issue.
    Technical skills are more highly prized in some manufacturing economies than they are in the UK (and not looked down on as they tend to be here) - but we've also starved the Technical Colleges of serious funding for a very long time.

    I'm not sure how you would best manage a rebalancing of further education towards technical skills, but it should be far more actively debated - as opposed to just "let's cut university funding", or worse, just doing so by fiscal drag, which is what this government has done.
    Universities are often of the mind that "These are our sacred principle and ideals. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you."

    Oxford used to sniff at part time degrees. Until they found out about the torrent of money from Kellogg College. Jokes about Rice Crispies Degrees turned into demands for some of the cash...

    This is the bunch who turned their noses up at giving Thatcher an honorary degree, but just *love* Landmine College.

    Make technical skills the place where money is at, and they'll be on it like tramps on chips.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411

    I am quite staggered her notes were allowed to be admitted at all as firm evidence? I think she probably did do it but to have those as a sign of confession seems quite batty to me, hasn't it been quite conclusively proven that even people that didn't do something have often ended up thinking that they did?

    I would have thought those notes were very admissible.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035

    I am quite staggered her notes were allowed to be admitted at all as firm evidence? I think she probably did do it but to have those as a sign of confession seems quite batty to me, hasn't it been quite conclusively proven that even people that didn't do something have often ended up thinking that they did?

    The truth is we probably admit confession evidence of all sorts a fair amount. Humans find them so compelling that the idea of excluding them is too objectionable, but I agree it isn't necessary useful for reaching justice.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    Nigelb said:

    I already noted this decision.

    The Supreme Court's second decision is Alexander v. SC NAACP. By a 6–3 vote, the majority REVERSES a district court decision that had struck down a South Carolina congressional district as a racial gerrymander. Alito writes; all three liberals dissent.
    https://x.com/mjs_DC/status/1793645098657570864

    I missed this bit where Thomas casts further shade on Brown v Board of Education.

    Justice Thomas' concurrence also takes aim at Brown v. Board of Education, faulting the Supreme Court for taking "a boundless view of equitable remedies" through "extravagant uses of judicial power" to end racial segregation in the 1950s and 60s.
    https://x.com/mjs_DC/status/1793650153657897402

    Towards the end of the 19th C, the Supreme Court, in an act of undeniable judicial activism, gutted the 14th Amendment in the Slaughterhouse Cases decision.

    During the following century, the Supreme Court gradually restored some of the scope of the 14th Amendment with a series of decisions which relied on its Due Process and Equal Protection clauses.

    The current extremists on the Court, like Thomas and Alito, have no problem with the Slaughterhouse decision, but remain keen to overturn the later settled precedents.

    They've killed Roe v. Wade already.
    Brown v. Board of Education, Loving v. Virginia, Obergefell v. Hodges, and Griswold v. Connecticut* are all potentially now in the frame.

    Bush v. Gore, of course, whose 14th Amendment basis was shakier than any of the above, won't be challenged.

    *See Trump's recent musings on contraception.

    I would not be surprised if some deep-Red State legislature passed anti-miscegenation legislation.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,450
    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,563
    Cookie said:

    You can see how much apprenticeships are looked down upon based on how the Tories have approached them. They are at best badly run and managed, at worst actively set people up badly for work.

    If we want to get people out of university and into the job market, apprenticeships need to be seen as tier 1 option not a "you're too stupid to get a degree" option, which they still are.

    I'm not sure that's right Horse. They're pretty highly sought after. Personally, I'd be delighted if my daughters went down the apprenticeship route rather than the degree route.
    Also, the apprentices where I work are clearly among the brightest of their generation.
    Agree with all this.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,629
    If you travel a lot like me, you often go to wild places with no wifi or cell signal, then you learn the distinct advantage of downloading over streaming
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035
    Sean_F said:

    I am quite staggered her notes were allowed to be admitted at all as firm evidence? I think she probably did do it but to have those as a sign of confession seems quite batty to me, hasn't it been quite conclusively proven that even people that didn't do something have often ended up thinking that they did?

    I would have thought those notes were very admissible.
    I think it's fair to ask whether the notes were truly more probative than prejudicial, but I don't think many courts would have excluded them.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,561
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.

    When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.

    Its hardly a contest.
    It isn't every song ever written though, is it? I've got a fair bit in my ipod which isn't on Spotify - including my most played song of the last ten years. ('Big', by New Fast Automatic Daffodils, if you must know. The original single version - not either of the album versions, which are very different beasts.)
    "Feels like almost" rather than "has every".
  • Options
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cookie said:

    You can see how much apprenticeships are looked down upon based on how the Tories have approached them. They are at best badly run and managed, at worst actively set people up badly for work.

    If we want to get people out of university and into the job market, apprenticeships need to be seen as tier 1 option not a "you're too stupid to get a degree" option, which they still are.

    I'm not sure that's right Horse. They're pretty highly sought after. Personally, I'd be delighted if my daughters went down the apprenticeship route rather than the degree route.
    Also, the apprentices where I work are clearly among the brightest of their generation.
    Agree with all this.
    That's not my experience at all - but I am glad at least in some circles things are improving and the people doing them are being recognised.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,617
    edited May 24
    Leon said:

    If you travel a lot like me, you often go to wild places with no wifi or cell signal, then you learn the distinct advantage of downloading over streaming

    Same. I’m often on trains or planes, and sometimes in remote locations and have a stack of downloads for that very reason.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
    Can somebody explain why she isn't allowed to appeal, isn't appealing quite a fundamental part of the system?

    If I was going to appeal, this is the first thing I would look at.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035

    Chris said:

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
    Can somebody explain why she isn't allowed to appeal, isn't appealing quite a fundamental part of the system?

    If I was going to appeal, this is the first thing I would look at.
    The right of appeal isn't automatic, you don't just get a second go at any trial you lose. You need to show something was wrong with the first trial, that it was conducted in the wrong way or some evidence has since been proven wrong. She and her lawyers haven't convinced a judge of that.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,563
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.

    When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.

    Its hardly a contest.
    Spotify is ace
    When I open Spotify, I often think about teenage me - using my meagre bits of money from weekend work, scrimping around to buy a CD album every month.

    The idea that I could, for the same price, get access to a reasonably high percentage of all recorded music would have been mind-melting. It’s one of the few things I would not cut. I could drop so much else, all video streaming, but not Spotify.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521
    This doesn't prove she did it, but the Letby case has something in common with the Yorkshire Ripper. Other lorry drivers used to call Sutcliffe "The Ripper" and Letby's fellow workers also remarked jokingly on the correlation between Letby's presence and deaths of the babies.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663

    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    I think the case for the defence is that there were deaths on the ward when she wasn't there, so who did those?
    Roy Meadow comes to mind - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Meadow
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,547
    @hoffman_noa

    Secretaries of state have made 2 promises literally to my face.

    1. Ground rent will be capped on leasehold properties
    2. Section 21 will be abolished for renters

    Confirmed - today both of those long repeated promises have been ABANDONED.



    Richi has managed to make Day 2 of his campaign all about how untrustworthy he is. Meanwhile He has just been asked live on TV if BoZo will be stumping for him
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035
    tlg86 said:

    This doesn't prove she did it, but the Letby case has something in common with the Yorkshire Ripper. Other lorry drivers used to call Sutcliffe "The Ripper" and Letby's fellow workers also remarked jokingly on the correlation between Letby's presence and deaths of the babies.

    Relatedly, PC Wayne Cousons was reportedly nicknamed 'The Rapist' by colleagues. Ugh.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,752
    edited May 24
    Leon said:

    If you travel a lot like me, you often go to wild places with no wifi or cell signal, then you learn the distinct advantage of downloading over streaming

    Or certain trains run by GWR, SWR, or London Northwestern. Sometimes it depends on which end of the train you sit.

    [Edit: many trains also throttle the signal or just forbid streaming sites, forcing a download prior. I mostly read or do BBC Sounds or doomscroll PB, so this is not a problem, but for more sophisticated users I imagine it would be awks]
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663

    Chris said:

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
    Can somebody explain why she isn't allowed to appeal, isn't appealing quite a fundamental part of the system?

    If I was going to appeal, this is the first thing I would look at.
    Her lawyers presented evidence for an appeal to a panel of three judges. The judges decided that the evidence presented was insufficient to kick off a full appeal process.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/24/lucy-letby-loses-attempt-to-appeal-against-baby-convictions
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,289
    Chris said:

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
    You have to look at the whole picture, including what the defence called and said about any particular bit of evidence, and how the defence went about rebutting it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,414
    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

  • Options
    Quincel said:

    Chris said:

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
    Can somebody explain why she isn't allowed to appeal, isn't appealing quite a fundamental part of the system?

    If I was going to appeal, this is the first thing I would look at.
    The right of appeal isn't automatic, you don't just get a second go at any trial you lose. You need to show something was wrong with the first trial, that it was conducted in the wrong way or some evidence has since been proven wrong. She and her lawyers haven't convinced a judge of that.
    Thanks for your thorough explanation, that makes sense.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    Quincel said:

    tlg86 said:

    This doesn't prove she did it, but the Letby case has something in common with the Yorkshire Ripper. Other lorry drivers used to call Sutcliffe "The Ripper" and Letby's fellow workers also remarked jokingly on the correlation between Letby's presence and deaths of the babies.

    Relatedly, PC Wayne Cousons was reportedly nicknamed 'The Rapist' by colleagues. Ugh.
    You'd think that would be a Red Flag.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,880

    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    I think the case for the defence is that there were deaths on the ward when she wasn't there, so who did those?
    There are plenty of deaths in NICUs. Unless other deaths were also identified as intentional, it's not much of a point.

    (I haven't followed the Letby case particularly closely and so don't have a fully formed opinion either way - what I have read does not trouble me, but that could be due to her being guilty or bias in the accounts I have read etc.)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,663
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
    Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,172

    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

    55 for what? Next VP or to be on the ticket?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,921
    Well.

    Paddy Power has abandoned a Euro 2024 advertising campaign with Boris Johnson after an apparent backlash from its staff against the former Prime Minister.

    The lead campaigner for Brexit in 2016 was reportedly due to pull on an England No 10 jersey and declare, “I told you I would get us back in Europe” in the stunt.

    However, with Johnson being hired and the script signed off, Dublin-based Paddy Power faced a revolt from its staff in Britain, the New York Times reports. Johnson’s spokesman and the betting firm have been contacted by Telegraph Sport.

    Two people familiar with the campaign had told the NYT that a script for the advert had been provided to Johnson. However, the prospect of aligning Johnson with the firm prompted UK staff members to reportedly warn “they were uncomfortable promoting a figure as divisive as Mr Johnson, and particularly with language that poked fun at Brexit”.

    “We have been speaking to Boris Johnson’s team about a number of opportunities, one of which was an idea for a cameo role in a TV advert,” Paddy Power’s parent company, the US-headquartered Flutter Entertainment, said.

    The company confirmed that Johnson’s role in its Euro 2024 campaign will not be on air although the parent company said “we remain hopeful of working together in the near future”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/05/24/boris-johnson-paddy-power-euro-2024-advert-axed-revolt/
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,289

    Chris said:

    geoffw said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Disturbing.
    "A simple review of the shift data used in the conviction of Lucy Letby reveals that if you torture data, it will confess to anything."
    In effect, they simply considered only cases that occurred when Letby was on duty, and then presented as significant the fact that Letby was on duty in all those cases.
    Can somebody explain why she isn't allowed to appeal, isn't appealing quite a fundamental part of the system?

    If I was going to appeal, this is the first thing I would look at.
    Her lawyers presented evidence for an appeal to a panel of three judges. The judges decided that the evidence presented was insufficient to kick off a full appeal process.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/24/lucy-letby-loses-attempt-to-appeal-against-baby-convictions
    Appeals begin with asking for leave to appeal, which the trial judge can give, or the Court of Appeal can give, usually a single judge at first, which can then be taken to three judges.

    An appeal has to present grounds of appeal; ie a set of argued reasons why, in law, an appeal is possible. If that does not exist, then the procedure stops then.

    There has to be a rational filter for appeals otherwise every case would be clogging up the system by having full hearings where there no arguable grounds.
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    I think the case for the defence is that there were deaths on the ward when she wasn't there, so who did those?
    There are plenty of deaths in NICUs. Unless other deaths were also identified as intentional, it's not much of a point.

    (I haven't followed the Letby case particularly closely and so don't have a fully formed opinion either way - what I have read does not trouble me, but that could be due to her being guilty or bias in the accounts I have read etc.)
    I believe, the suggestion was made that the rate of death on the ward was still higher than "average" (naturally) even excluding the Letby deaths, so the implication was something else was at play and they were trying to use that as a way to say Letby didn't do it.

    I am about 85% sure she did it.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035

    Well.

    Paddy Power has abandoned a Euro 2024 advertising campaign with Boris Johnson after an apparent backlash from its staff against the former Prime Minister.

    The lead campaigner for Brexit in 2016 was reportedly due to pull on an England No 10 jersey and declare, “I told you I would get us back in Europe” in the stunt.

    However, with Johnson being hired and the script signed off, Dublin-based Paddy Power faced a revolt from its staff in Britain, the New York Times reports. Johnson’s spokesman and the betting firm have been contacted by Telegraph Sport.

    Two people familiar with the campaign had told the NYT that a script for the advert had been provided to Johnson. However, the prospect of aligning Johnson with the firm prompted UK staff members to reportedly warn “they were uncomfortable promoting a figure as divisive as Mr Johnson, and particularly with language that poked fun at Brexit”.

    “We have been speaking to Boris Johnson’s team about a number of opportunities, one of which was an idea for a cameo role in a TV advert,” Paddy Power’s parent company, the US-headquartered Flutter Entertainment, said.

    The company confirmed that Johnson’s role in its Euro 2024 campaign will not be on air although the parent company said “we remain hopeful of working together in the near future”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/05/24/boris-johnson-paddy-power-euro-2024-advert-axed-revolt/

    Cowards. Their 'I'm anti EU but pro Europe' Ryder Cup campaign with Farage back in 2014 was great.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXhLMIDscTI
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,934
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
    Yes, the Russian casualty numbers are off the scale, over 10k a week for the last few weeks.

    Obviously I want to see the Ukranians win, but it’s horrible to see death and injury actually play out.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,414
    Farooq said:

    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

    55 for what? Next VP or to be on the ticket?
    Veep nominee.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,432

    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

    Think I backed him last time his name is mentioned. Trump seems to be teasing by approving any name an interviewer suggests.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,917
    Selebian said:

    Ratters said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    O/T: Letby denied leave to appeal

    This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    Interesting.

    There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.

    If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.

    Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
    lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal

    But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life

    But, hmm
    What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
    I thought the evidence presented in court was pretty compelling at the time. The main points I recall are:

    The science demonstrated babies were definitely murderered, these weren't accidents. The defence accepts this.

    Letby was a common factor across deaths, on duty every time, before and after suspicions were first raised.

    Her very disturbing notes at home blaming herself with the words 'I killed them on purpose because I am not good enough to care for them + I am a horrible evil person. I am evil I did this.'

    Is the alternative scenario that someone else unknown was responsible who wasn't on rota and that Letby was simply self blaming under the pressure of investigation?

    I didn't sit through the entire court case but it hardly screams miscarriage of justice unless I'm missing something.
    I think the case for the defence is that there were deaths on the ward when she wasn't there, so who did those?
    There are plenty of deaths in NICUs. Unless other deaths were also identified as intentional, it's not much of a point.

    (I haven't followed the Letby case particularly closely and so don't have a fully formed opinion either way - what I have read does not trouble me, but that could be due to her being guilty or bias in the accounts I have read etc.)
    The (was it a?) New Yorker article was pretty damning and is consistent with her not being guilty.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,752

    Well.

    Paddy Power has abandoned a Euro 2024 advertising campaign with Boris Johnson after an apparent backlash from its staff against the former Prime Minister.

    The lead campaigner for Brexit in 2016 was reportedly due to pull on an England No 10 jersey and declare, “I told you I would get us back in Europe” in the stunt.

    However, with Johnson being hired and the script signed off, Dublin-based Paddy Power faced a revolt from its staff in Britain, the New York Times reports. Johnson’s spokesman and the betting firm have been contacted by Telegraph Sport.

    Two people familiar with the campaign had told the NYT that a script for the advert had been provided to Johnson. However, the prospect of aligning Johnson with the firm prompted UK staff members to reportedly warn “they were uncomfortable promoting a figure as divisive as Mr Johnson, and particularly with language that poked fun at Brexit”.

    “We have been speaking to Boris Johnson’s team about a number of opportunities, one of which was an idea for a cameo role in a TV advert,” Paddy Power’s parent company, the US-headquartered Flutter Entertainment, said.

    The company confirmed that Johnson’s role in its Euro 2024 campaign will not be on air although the parent company said “we remain hopeful of working together in the near future”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/05/24/boris-johnson-paddy-power-euro-2024-advert-axed-revolt/

    Much as I famously dislike Johnson (let me count the ways...), I can't help thinking this is a bit mean. He's a civilian now - and hopefully for ever - and now can only betray those of his friends and family who still like him, assuming there are some.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,432

    Well.

    Paddy Power has abandoned a Euro 2024 advertising campaign with Boris Johnson after an apparent backlash from its staff against the former Prime Minister.

    The lead campaigner for Brexit in 2016 was reportedly due to pull on an England No 10 jersey and declare, “I told you I would get us back in Europe” in the stunt.

    However, with Johnson being hired and the script signed off, Dublin-based Paddy Power faced a revolt from its staff in Britain, the New York Times reports. Johnson’s spokesman and the betting firm have been contacted by Telegraph Sport.

    Two people familiar with the campaign had told the NYT that a script for the advert had been provided to Johnson. However, the prospect of aligning Johnson with the firm prompted UK staff members to reportedly warn “they were uncomfortable promoting a figure as divisive as Mr Johnson, and particularly with language that poked fun at Brexit”.

    “We have been speaking to Boris Johnson’s team about a number of opportunities, one of which was an idea for a cameo role in a TV advert,” Paddy Power’s parent company, the US-headquartered Flutter Entertainment, said.

    The company confirmed that Johnson’s role in its Euro 2024 campaign will not be on air although the parent company said “we remain hopeful of working together in the near future”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/05/24/boris-johnson-paddy-power-euro-2024-advert-axed-revolt/

    Now that Boris is free of advertising commitments, you can get 10/1 against him winning a seat in July.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,627

    FPT but relevant here

    Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.

    Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.

    And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.

    You know who developed the Bet365 website?

    The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
    He will need a new job soon, so he can do a refresh?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,392
    Claudia Webbe running as an indy in Leicester East
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,627

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart

    I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.

    Pure comedy gold.

    Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
    Who would download music these days? People just stream.
    I have various films and TV series on Blu-Ray and DVD. Even the Blu-Ray ones rarely come out of their boxes - often the streaming quality is even higher...
    That is true. I tend to still get dvds though as backups in case things come off platforms at some point.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,289
    Quincel said:

    Sean_F said:

    I am quite staggered her notes were allowed to be admitted at all as firm evidence? I think she probably did do it but to have those as a sign of confession seems quite batty to me, hasn't it been quite conclusively proven that even people that didn't do something have often ended up thinking that they did?

    I would have thought those notes were very admissible.
    I think it's fair to ask whether the notes were truly more probative than prejudicial, but I don't think many courts would have excluded them.
    Always admissible. The question of the balance of probative v prejudicial does not arise. A smoking gun in your hand following the shot being fired is highly prejudicial. The balance of probative v prejudicial is generally applied to the admission of previous convictions.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    The soon to be unemployed MP for Ipswich thinks the Tories can win the election by running a Susan Hall type campaign. Ye Gods.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
    Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
    Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.

    But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,717
    On thread (belatedly)

    Apply UNS to the 2019 East Devon result, based on the current polling of each party, and you will get something like the following before making any heroic assumptions about where the 40% Independent vote might end up:

    Conservative 29% (-22%)
    Labour 19% (+12%)
    Reform 10% (+10%)
    Lib Dem 1% (-2%)

    The mind boggles at how the serial election liars otherwise known as LD bar chart graphic designers might interpret that challenging situation, assuming they are bothering with the constituency in the first place.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,414

    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

    Think I backed him last time his name is mentioned. Trump seems to be teasing by approving any name an interviewer suggests.
    Yeh, that is the trouble with this market.

    My big bet is JD Vance.

    He will be President one day I reckon. Could be via Trump 2.0 or running in 2028.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,627
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
    Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
    Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.

    But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
    Turns out it's too bloody expensive to wage war.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,172
    ToryJim said:

    The soon to be unemployed MP for Ipswich thinks the Tories can win the election by running a Susan Hall type campaign. Ye Gods.

    Moon Rabid will be along in a few minutes to explain that Susan Hall actually won
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,627

    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

    Makes sense - the various people trying to copy his style would not add anything, he is already capable of that and adored by the base for it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
    Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
    Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.

    But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
    Turns out it's too bloody expensive to wage war.
    There's been a notable lack of successful wars of conquest, since 1945. It's far less expensive now, to acquire resources by trade, than by waging war, and having to maintain an army of occupation.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035

    On thread (belatedly)

    Apply UNS to the 2019 East Devon result, based on the current polling of each party, and you will get something like the following before making any heroic assumptions about where the 40% Independent vote might end up:

    Conservative 29% (-22%)
    Labour 19% (+12%)
    Reform 10% (+10%)
    Lib Dem 1% (-2%)

    The mind boggles at how the serial election liars otherwise known as LD bar chart graphic designers might interpret that challenging situation, assuming they are bothering with the constituency in the first place.

    I mean, if I were them I'd make a bar chart of the last local election results across the constituency (which has them well ahead of Labour overall) and stick Claire Wright's face on it.

    Would that convince enough people? Who knows. But the basis of a LD campaign argument isn't hard to see.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:
    I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
    Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
    Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.

    But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
    Yes, and factor in the - what - million or so who have fled Russia to avoid the whole unpleasantness, there is going to be quite a dent in this generation. And given that this is the generation which breeds the next, birth rates are going to be through the floor. Russia's demographics are probably even more challenging than China's.
    OTOH, they are stealing Ukrainian children from the occupied territories to make up the numbers.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,767
    "Abortion rates rise to record levels ‘due to cost of living crisis’
    Data shows those in most deprived parts of England almost twice as likely to have termination than in least deprived areas
    Maya Oppenheim

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/abortions-records-cost-of-living-b2550222.html
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024

    Farooq said:

    Meanwhile, in America...

    Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.

    NY Times


    I just got on at 55 on BF.

    DYOR.

    55 for what? Next VP or to be on the ticket?
    Veep nominee.
    He's at 80/1 on Skybet.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,717
    Redwood has today also announced that he has thrown in the towel.

    That means that there are 76 current MPs standing down after being elected as Conservatives. Surpassing the record of 75 set in 1997.
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