I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Yes, and factor in the - what - million or so who have fled Russia to avoid the whole unpleasantness, there is going to be quite a dent in this generation. And given that this is the generation which breeds the next, birth rates are going to be through the floor. Russia's demographics are probably even more challenging than China's. OTOH, they are stealing Ukrainian children from the occupied territories to make up the numbers.
Though Ukraine has the same problem (but now even worse because of those who have fled) so even conquest will only be a temporary solution for the Tsar.
I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Turns out it's too bloody expensive to wage war.
There's been a notable lack of successful wars of conquest, since 1945. It's far less expensive now, to acquire resources by trade, than by waging war, and having to maintain an army of occupation.
Indeed, until Russian attempts it's been be very rare it seems to try it on a large scale, more than a border region or so. I guess Azerbaijan counts as another recent example.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
Interesting.
There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.
If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.
Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal
But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life
But, hmm
What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
To be honest, it worries me more that we may have ruined an innocent woman's life.
Unfortunately for Letby, unless the killings start again, she isn't getting out.
I thought I was the only mug who thought this case smelled a bit iffy. The simple fact it took Cheshire Police years to put a case together against her seemed odd.
Or are we just shocked that a nice, middle class, white, pretty girl next door could be an evil serial killer?
I read something recently that instead of using his own agents to foment trouble abroad (as in Salisbury...), he is trying to engage criminal groups to do jobs within their countries. Seems a 'sensible' and deniable approach for him to take.
Also take into account the way he is using immigration as a weapon. I would not be surprised if his 'agents' were behind much of the Channel trouble, which has increased massively since 2020.
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.
NY Times
I just got on at 55 on BF.
DYOR.
Think I backed him last time his name is mentioned. Trump seems to be teasing by approving any name an interviewer suggests.
Not sure he brings anything to the ticket, other than being reliably a loon. Arkansas is pretty well irrelevant as far this Presidential elections is concerned.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
Interesting.
There’s a long history of vilifying and scapegoating female convicts.
If what you report is true, and I’ve no reason to doubt it, then it’s as you say disturbing that she hasn’t been granted the right to appeal.
Jeez. That’s twice in two days you and I …
lol. I know. It’s probably just election fever and we’ll go back to normal
But my friend was articulate about his doubts - and he is an expert and he has no reason to lie (this was his opinion as a bystander but a professional). And tbh I was quite resistant - I don’t want to think we’ve sent down an innocent woman for life
But, hmm
What should really worry you if you think she isn't guilty is that the real killer is still out there. Letby and her legal team accepted that someone was killing babies.
To be honest, it worries me more that we may have ruined an innocent woman's life.
Unfortunately for Letby, unless the killings start again, she isn't getting out.
I thought I was the only mug who thought this case smelled a bit iffy. The simple fact it took Cheshire Police years to put a case together against her seemed odd.
Or are we just shocked that a nice, middle class, white, pretty girl next door could be an evil serial killer?
I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Turns out it's too bloody expensive to wage war.
There's been a notable lack of successful wars of conquest, since 1945. It's far less expensive now, to acquire resources by trade, than by waging war, and having to maintain an army of occupation.
I think nuclear weapons might have something to do with it
Tibet being removed from existence is a counter example.
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas has unexpectedly emerged as a top contender to become Donald J. Trump’s running mate, a signal that the former president is heavily weighing experience and the ability to run a disciplined campaign over other factors.
NY Times
I just got on at 55 on BF.
DYOR.
Think I backed him last time his name is mentioned. Trump seems to be teasing by approving any name an interviewer suggests.
Yeh, that is the trouble with this market.
My big bet is JD Vance.
He will be President one day I reckon. Could be via Trump 2.0 or running in 2028.
Vance is more plausible. Another mendacious shit, but he's probably better at it than Trump.
"Abortion rates rise to record levels ‘due to cost of living crisis’ Data shows those in most deprived parts of England almost twice as likely to have termination than in least deprived areas Maya Oppenheim
Hm - but it's not obvious that correlation = causation in that case. I would expect abortions are most common among younger adult unmarried women - baldly, these tend not to be clustered in affluent areas, which are older and more married.
IIRC abortion vs contraception strongly correlates to female education and empowerment. As seen in many countries.
Paddy Power has abandoned a Euro 2024 advertising campaign with Boris Johnson after an apparent backlash from its staff against the former Prime Minister.
The lead campaigner for Brexit in 2016 was reportedly due to pull on an England No 10 jersey and declare, “I told you I would get us back in Europe” in the stunt.
However, with Johnson being hired and the script signed off, Dublin-based Paddy Power faced a revolt from its staff in Britain, the New York Times reports. Johnson’s spokesman and the betting firm have been contacted by Telegraph Sport.
Two people familiar with the campaign had told the NYT that a script for the advert had been provided to Johnson. However, the prospect of aligning Johnson with the firm prompted UK staff members to reportedly warn “they were uncomfortable promoting a figure as divisive as Mr Johnson, and particularly with language that poked fun at Brexit”.
“We have been speaking to Boris Johnson’s team about a number of opportunities, one of which was an idea for a cameo role in a TV advert,” Paddy Power’s parent company, the US-headquartered Flutter Entertainment, said.
The company confirmed that Johnson’s role in its Euro 2024 campaign will not be on air although the parent company said “we remain hopeful of working together in the near future”.
Much as I famously dislike Johnson (let me count the ways...), I can't help thinking this is a bit mean. He's a civilian now - and hopefully for ever - and now can only betray those of his friends and family who still like him, assuming there are some.
Doesn't it more look the case that Paddy Power's UK team realising it was a terrible idea signed off by another team? I know Paddy Power love their close-to-the-bone banterous stunts, but they've usually got more elan than going "Boris and Brexit, eh whaddishe like?" Knowing that Johnson's role in recent British political history hits a bit of a raw nerve with many - due to Brexit and Covid - and isn't something a company that usually prides itself on its image of playful mocking of pomposity wants to associate it with.
I read something recently that instead of using his own agents to foment trouble abroad (as in Salisbury...), he is trying to engage criminal groups to do jobs within their countries. Seems a 'sensible' and deniable approach for him to take.
Also take into account the way he is using immigration as a weapon. I would not be surprised if his 'agents' were behind much of the Channel trouble, which has increased massively since 2020.
An old KGB tactic - they once tried to hire some gangsters to break Rudolf Nureyev's legs.
For balance, I have another acquaintance who was professionally involved with the Bamber case. Went in with doubts, came out thinking: definitely guilty
Bamber's theory is that his sister killed everyone, before turning the gun on herself. Never seemed very convincing.
Claudia Webbe running as an indy in Leicester East
Delusional. She probably won't save her deposit, and will only contribute to the possibility of a Tory win.
She may be aware of that and happy with it, and so not delusional.
In any case how big is the possibility? The Tories did quire well last time but will probably be down this time, and most incumbents standing as independents do poorly. Jeremy Corbyn she ain't.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
Didn't Sean Twat have all his old posts deleted, before he left us forever?
I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Yes, and factor in the - what - million or so who have fled Russia to avoid the whole unpleasantness, there is going to be quite a dent in this generation. And given that this is the generation which breeds the next, birth rates are going to be through the floor. Russia's demographics are probably even more challenging than China's. OTOH, they are stealing Ukrainian children from the occupied territories to make up the numbers.
Russia has gone to a lot of effort to get other people to fight and die for them - Nepalis, Indians, Cubans, etc, and, most horrifyingly, forcibly conscripting the Ukrainian population in the occupied areas.
I've no idea what the relative proportions are, but it could be that a lot of the dead and wounded aren't even from the Russian Federation, let alone from the Moscow/St Petersburg core.
There's a lot of competition for the most vile things that Russia has done in this war, but forcing the people of Donbas to fight against their own country is pretty high up there.
Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart
I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.
Pure comedy gold.
Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.
When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.
Its hardly a contest.
I don't use spotify that much and so am prepared to put up with the ads when I do. If I want to hear one off songs I usually go to YouTube, for songs by an artist or an album I play them digitally or physically if I have them, only then will I go to spotify.
My main problem is that it is a subscription. I would be fine paying a small amount for every track that I listen to but that model isn't available. With all subscriptions I eventually end up not using the service any more, and then I don't get round to cancelling the subscription until a few years have gone by. As there are so many things using the subscrition model now I end up just refusing unless it there is no other choice at all eg. home internet provider.
Things Can Only Get Better is currently No.2 in the iTunes download chart
I know some of you loathe Steve Bray but he and God stole the show on Wednesday. You couldn’t have written a better Thick of It script if you had tried than the PM getting drowned out by the rain and Labour’s winning 1997 anthem.
Pure comedy gold.
Downloads? The only acceptable way to buy music is on vinyl. 😊
Spotify for £100 a year, just over 1 days minimum wage pay, gives me access to what feels like almost every song ever produced, as well as finding them for me and working out new music I'd like.
When vinyl was in its hey day for the same type of labour you'd get a couple of albums.
Its hardly a contest.
I don't use spotify that much and so am prepared to put up with the ads when I do. If I want to hear one off songs I usually go to YouTube, for songs by an artist or an album I play them digitally or physically if I have them, only then will I go to spotify.
My main problem is that it is a subscription. I would be fine paying a small amount for every track that I listen to but that model isn't available. With all subscriptions I eventually end up not using the service any more, and then I don't get round to cancelling the subscription until a few years have gone by. As there are so many things using the subscrition model now I end up just refusing unless it there is no other choice at all eg. home internet provider.
I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Yes, and factor in the - what - million or so who have fled Russia to avoid the whole unpleasantness, there is going to be quite a dent in this generation. And given that this is the generation which breeds the next, birth rates are going to be through the floor. Russia's demographics are probably even more challenging than China's. OTOH, they are stealing Ukrainian children from the occupied territories to make up the numbers.
Russia has gone to a lot of effort to get other people to fight and die for them - Nepalis, Indians, Cubans, etc, and, most horrifyingly, forcibly conscripting the Ukrainian population in the occupied areas.
I've no idea what the relative proportions are, but it could be that a lot of the dead and wounded aren't even from the Russian Federation, let alone from the Moscow/St Petersburg core.
There's a lot of competition for the most vile things that Russia has done in this war, but forcing the people of Donbas to fight against their own country is pretty high up there.
Pretty sure there's data a disproportionate number of the Russian mobilised are from outlying regions, higher in ethnic minorities as well, which tracks.
I see why they describe the current Barrister as brutal in the PO enquiry, hearing his questions around this (esp. 4.3):
I'm now all quota'd out.
Set up a photo credits black market where you can dm someone a photo if you have used your allocation and they get a credit from you for a photo to be posted when they need extra.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
Didn't Sean Twat have all his old posts deleted, before he left us forever?
Some dozy publicist suggest his bodice-rippers would sell better if he projected a more emollient persona.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
Didn't Sean Twat have all his old posts deleted, before he left us forever?
Some dozy publicist suggest his bodice-rippers would sell better if he projected a more emollient persona.
This site has been hijacked by discussion of political betting. Where am I supposed to post my holiday snaps now?
If you require non-political betting content, let me help you with that. I just found out there's a Roman Emperor who's name is pronounced "poopie anus"
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
Didn't Sean Twat have all his old posts deleted, before he left us forever?
Some dozy publicist suggest his bodice-rippers would sell better if he projected a more emollient persona.
How's that going?
Dunno. One minute he is on here regaling us with tales of royalty cheques from faraway lands of which we know nothing, and the next he's chucked in the book game and taken to plagiarising flint-based travel writers for the Spectator.
It must be unusual for people to have convictions quashed by an act of parliament. Has it happened before?
Alan Turing and anyone else convicted of consensual gayness?
I have a problem with this. Quashing their convictions seems to be addressing the wrong bit - it wasn't that they weren't being consensually gay, it's the in the 21st century we have decided to express regret that this was ever a crime. But quashing their convictions seems to suggest they weren't gay. Which in most cases it would appear they were.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
I have doubts too. No idea if they're reasonable ones.
Paddy Power has abandoned a Euro 2024 advertising campaign with Boris Johnson after an apparent backlash from its staff against the former Prime Minister.
The lead campaigner for Brexit in 2016 was reportedly due to pull on an England No 10 jersey and declare, “I told you I would get us back in Europe” in the stunt.
However, with Johnson being hired and the script signed off, Dublin-based Paddy Power faced a revolt from its staff in Britain, the New York Times reports. Johnson’s spokesman and the betting firm have been contacted by Telegraph Sport.
Two people familiar with the campaign had told the NYT that a script for the advert had been provided to Johnson. However, the prospect of aligning Johnson with the firm prompted UK staff members to reportedly warn “they were uncomfortable promoting a figure as divisive as Mr Johnson, and particularly with language that poked fun at Brexit”.
“We have been speaking to Boris Johnson’s team about a number of opportunities, one of which was an idea for a cameo role in a TV advert,” Paddy Power’s parent company, the US-headquartered Flutter Entertainment, said.
The company confirmed that Johnson’s role in its Euro 2024 campaign will not be on air although the parent company said “we remain hopeful of working together in the near future”.
Much as I famously dislike Johnson (let me count the ways...), I can't help thinking this is a bit mean. He's a civilian now - and hopefully for ever - and now can only betray those of his friends and family who still like him, assuming there are some.
I can’t help thinking this is a bit greedy of Johnson to want to cash in on his notoriety.
Just going back to the title of the thread, YouGov constituency polling in April said the following: Exmouth Cons 34, L:abour 31, Lib Dems 6 Reform 19 Honiton: Cons 36, Labour 24, Lib Dem 16 Reform 16
I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Turns out it's too bloody expensive to wage war.
There's been a notable lack of successful wars of conquest, since 1945. It's far less expensive now, to acquire resources by trade, than by waging war, and having to maintain an army of occupation.
I think nuclear weapons might have something to do with it
There have been in that time quite a few attemps that failed or ended undecided, so probably isn't because of nuclear weapons, e.g. Korea, Vietnam, Kuwait, Afghanistan (twice), Falklands.
Just going back to the title of the thread, YouGov constituency polling in April said the following: Exmouth Cons 34, L:abour 31, Lib Dems 6 Reform 19 Honiton: Cons 36, Labour 24, Lib Dem 16 Reform 16
Betting on Lib Dems seems a waste of time?
You mean the MRP model? No-one has polled the seats. The MRP assumes shifts based on how those demographics nationally intend to vote. My argument is that in this seat there is an unusual local factor which makes the LDs have a good shot at being the main challenger, and since the Tories may well get 30-40% of the vote they would be beatable.
It must be unusual for people to have convictions quashed by an act of parliament. Has it happened before?
Alan Turing and anyone else convicted of consensual gayness?
I have a problem with this. Quashing their convictions seems to be addressing the wrong bit - it wasn't that they weren't being consensually gay, it's the in the 21st century we have decided to express regret that this was ever a crime. But quashing their convictions seems to suggest they weren't gay. Which in most cases it would appear they were.
Jimmy Carr told a joke along those lines but I can't immediately find the video.
Just going back to the title of the thread, YouGov constituency polling in April said the following: Exmouth Cons 34, L:abour 31, Lib Dems 6 Reform 19 Honiton: Cons 36, Labour 24, Lib Dem 16 Reform 16
Betting on Lib Dems seems a waste of time?
Was this an MRP study? Not sure it can properly account for local factors wrt LD support.
I was reading that Russian casualties have been hitting 1,200 a day, lately, which is a crazy waste of men.
Given that the total Russia birth rate is 1.2 million per year, that is Lost Generation numbers.
Back in the days when women had 6 children each, on average, rulers could squander huge numbers of young men in wars, sure that in peacetime, the population would bounce back. It's why the carnage in warfare, in the biggest population countries, India and China, tended to be off the scale. Peasant lives were readily expendable.
But, with birthrates below replacement level, almost everywhere now, outside Africa, it's crazy to throw away lives like that.
Turns out it's too bloody expensive to wage war.
There's been a notable lack of successful wars of conquest, since 1945. It's far less expensive now, to acquire resources by trade, than by waging war, and having to maintain an army of occupation.
I think nuclear weapons might have something to do with it
There have been in that time quite a few attemps that failed or ended undecided, so probably isn't because of nuclear weapons, e.g. Korea, Vietnam, Kuwait, Afghanistan (twice), Falklands.
One might argue that Korea and Vietnam were civil wars rather than wars of conquest. But you could add Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war, Nagorno-Karabakh, Western Sahara.
Just going back to the title of the thread, YouGov constituency polling in April said the following: Exmouth Cons 34, L:abour 31, Lib Dems 6 Reform 19 Honiton: Cons 36, Labour 24, Lib Dem 16 Reform 16
Betting on Lib Dems seems a waste of time?
Yes but the MRP approach offloads national demographic projections onto every seat, which can easily smooth over local factors, working to Labour's advantage given their huge national lead in almost every demographic. Hence Nick of this parish trying to make out Labour is in second in Didcot when they've just been beaten by the LDs there in both local and PCC elections
It must be unusual for people to have convictions quashed by an act of parliament. Has it happened before?
Alan Turing and anyone else convicted of consensual gayness?
I have a problem with this. Quashing their convictions seems to be addressing the wrong bit - it wasn't that they weren't being consensually gay, it's the in the 21st century we have decided to express regret that this was ever a crime. But quashing their convictions seems to suggest they weren't gay. Which in most cases it would appear they were.
Quashing their convictions shows that treating homosexuality as a crime was wrong. No one thinks that Oscar Wilde and Alan Turing were not gay.
I have a bigger problem that the convictions of famous people are quashed, but the conviction of John Bull of Sunderland in 1960 remains.
Just going back to the title of the thread, YouGov constituency polling in April said the following: Exmouth Cons 34, L:abour 31, Lib Dems 6 Reform 19 Honiton: Cons 36, Labour 24, Lib Dem 16 Reform 16
Betting on Lib Dems seems a waste of time?
Some of those MRP results were utter nonsense by applying national swings. Just look at the projected Lab vote in some of the LD Tory targets where Lab have come nowhere before.
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
Oh no, how awful this whole process must be for Mrs Vennells…
F**k off you bitch, you’re looking at serious prison time.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Very occasionally things are so bad one of the 'right sort' has to be punished, then sheer incompetence is not sufficient explanation, but it is rare.
We will see.
Incidentally, I think Stein was pretty good in his examination. Less subtle than Beer, but he was excellent at pressing meaningful questions "when did you know"; "when were you aware of this"; "whose advice was it that you relied on for this, please give their names now" etc.
On my viewing (FWIW) Vennells' evidence simply doesn't credibly stack up. She's just too certain about, and recalls too well events which suit her, while lapsing into utter vagueness regarding anything which might implicate her in the decision making, over the best part of a decade of her involvement, which helped lead to so many miscarriages of justice.
Whether that (and further evidence) could prove a criminal case against her beyond reasonable doubt is another matter - but this is, of course, not yet a trial.
Oh no, how awful this whole process must be for Mrs Vennells…
F**k off you bitch, you’re looking at serious prison time.
Hold on, as we learnt from Rogerdamus the other day, she is the real victim here.
Show some sympathy.
Hold on. Just catching up with the Vennells affair.
Anyone who bought shares in Royal Mail float was, it appears, possibly misled by the sale process, as PO left out stuff to do with the Horizon scandal and possible future costs.
It must be unusual for people to have convictions quashed by an act of parliament. Has it happened before?
Alan Turing and anyone else convicted of consensual gayness?
I have a problem with this. Quashing their convictions seems to be addressing the wrong bit - it wasn't that they weren't being consensually gay, it's the in the 21st century we have decided to express regret that this was ever a crime. But quashing their convictions seems to suggest they weren't gay. Which in most cases it would appear they were.
Quashing their convictions shows that treating homosexuality as a crime was wrong. No one thinks that Oscar Wilde and Alan Turing were not gay.
I have a bigger problem that the convictions of famous people are quashed, but the conviction of John Bull of Sunderland in 1960 remains.
Wilde would get a similar sentence to Jonathan King, under current legislation.
Oh no, how awful this whole process must be for Mrs Vennells…
F**k off you bitch, you’re looking at serious prison time.
Hold on, as we learnt from Rogerdamus the other day, she is the real victim here.
Show some sympathy.
Hold on. Just catching up with the Vennells affair.
Anyone who bought shares in Royal Mail float was, it appears, possibly misled by the sale process, as PO left out stuff to do with the Horizon scandal and possible future costs.
Class action time?
Isn’t the post office a separate organisation, still owned by the government?
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
I don't agree with his politics, but that does seem sad. He may well have got back into the swing of things given a few more months, but really asking him to campaign so soon after returning seems too much I'm guessing. I'm sure he would have got a sympathy vote. His speech on returning to the Commons was excellent. Came over as a nice human being.
Oh no, how awful this whole process must be for Mrs Vennells…
F**k off you bitch, you’re looking at serious prison time.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Very occasionally things are so bad one of the 'right sort' has to be punished, then sheer incompetence is not sufficient explanation, but it is rare.
On my viewing (FWIW) Vennells' evidence simply doesn't credibly stack up. She's just too certain about, and recalls too well events which suit her, while lapsing into utter vagueness regarding anything which might implicate her
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
Deadline for nominations is two weeks today. So how long do MPs have to decide whether to stand or not?
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
I don't agree with his politics, but that does seem sad. He may well have got back into the swing of things given a few more months, but really asking him to campaign so soon after returning seems too much I'm guessing. I'm sure he would have got a sympathy vote. His speech on returning to the Commons was excellent. Came over as a nice human being.
I’m sure it is the correct decision personally for him given his situation, but it just underscores the bungling nature of the election announcement that Rishi praises Mackinley at PMQs knowing he’d be asking him to contemplate undertaking a difficult election campaign hours later. I’m afraid I’d struggle to not let my fury get the better of me in such circumstances.
Oh no, how awful this whole process must be for Mrs Vennells…
F**k off you bitch, you’re looking at serious prison time.
Hold on, as we learnt from Rogerdamus the other day, she is the real victim here.
Show some sympathy.
Hold on. Just catching up with the Vennells affair.
Anyone who bought shares in Royal Mail float was, it appears, possibly misled by the sale process, as PO left out stuff to do with the Horizon scandal and possible future costs.
Class action time?
Isn’t the post office a separate organisation, still owned by the government?
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
I'm surprised because thought he'd announced a few days ago that he was standing again.
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
I'm surprised because thought he'd announced a few days ago that he was standing again.
At that point he probably assumed like most people that the election was a few months off.
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
Well since we are all assuming its a nailed on result, testing the fissures in Labour is about the only fun to be had.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
I have doubts too. No idea if they're reasonable ones.
It would not be the first time the UK legal system convicted an innocent woman of terrible crimes on the basis of “expert” medical evidence & dubious statistics.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
That Twitter account sets my spider-senses tingling...
Another Tory flees the battlefield. Greg Clark standing down. Just how many disgusteds are there in his seat?
Mike Martin had a decent outside chance of winning when Greg Clark was there, but I'd put him at better than evens now with a new anonymous Tory candidate.
Another Tory flees the battlefield. Greg Clark standing down. Just how many disgusteds are there in his seat?
Will Boris be tempted?
Its probably about the only chance they've got.
Yes, Boris should Bruce Ismay himself onto a seat. Last second. Then the remaining weeks of the campaign can be all about HIM which is only fitting for the world king and people's PM.
Looks like Craig Mackinley is to stand down. It was probably inevitable when you return to work after a life threatening illness and the first thing your boss does is tell you you’re going to have to reapply for your job.
I'm surprised because thought he'd announced a few days ago that he was standing again.
At that point he probably assumed like most people that the election was a few months off.
Yes, he explained that he was aiming for a staged return to the Commons but that a campaign now is more than he can manage.
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
I thought Sara Montague interviewing Yvette Cooper on WATO yesterday was bloody awful. She was asking Cooper gotcha questions and then interrupting all the time when Cooper was explaining how she was wrong in the basis of her questions (which she was). It was obvious throughout the whole interview that she was depsrate for the soundbite/statement that she could twist and that Cooper was way too well briefed and prepared to allow that to happen. In fact Cooper was answering all of her questions clearly and showing an understanding of the law which Montague clearly lacked.
I won't be voting for Labour but journalists like Montague being put in their place so thoroughly certainly endear me to some of the prospective ministers.
Another Tory flees the battlefield. Greg Clark standing down. Just how many disgusteds are there in his seat?
Will Boris be tempted?
Its probably about the only chance they've got.
Yes, Boris should Bruce Ismay himself onto a seat. Last second. Then the remaining weeks of the campaign can be all about HIM which is only fitting for the world king and people's PM.
Missed you earlier this morning as Mrs B dragged me out shopping.
Though we often disagree can I wish you the best of luck in the coming campaign and hope you get elected.
Regarding yesterdays IDF library burning photo. Seems there will be an investigation.
Translation from Israeli newspaper:
"A photo of an IDF soldier inside Al-Aqsa University in Gaza City, with books burning behind him, was published in recent hours on networks around the world and caused a stir. Originally, we note, the photo was published without blurring the soldier's face - and it seems that it was originally distributed by the soldiers. A similar case, of burning a Koran book, also happened yesterday in Rafah.
The IDF stated that "this is a serious incident that is not consistent with the values of the IDF and its orders. For the incident, an investigation was opened by the investigating military police, at the end of which the findings will be forwarded to the military attorney's office for examination"
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
Well since we are all assuming its a nailed on result, testing the fissures in Labour is about the only fun to be had.
I suspect you have a point, and even some who are more sympathetic to Starmer than Sunak are nonetheless desperate to level the playing field in the interests of making them and their jobs more relevant.
I still remember 1992, and I still believe Sunak might win a majority.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
Well since we are all assuming its a nailed on result, testing the fissures in Labour is about the only fun to be had.
I suspect you have a point, and even some who sre more sympathetic to Starmer than Sunak are nonetheless desperate to level the playing field in the interests of making them and their jobs more relevant.
I still remember 1992, and I still believe Sunak might win a majority.
Cant see it myself, hes all about containing the damage.
Regarding yesterdays IDF library burning photo. Seems there will be an investigation.
Translation from Israeli newspaper:
"A photo of an IDF soldier inside Al-Aqsa University in Gaza City, with books burning behind him, was published in recent hours on networks around the world and caused a stir. Originally, we note, the photo was published without blurring the soldier's face - and it seems that it was originally distributed by the soldiers. A similar case, of burning a Koran book, also happened yesterday in Rafah.
The IDF stated that "this is a serious incident that is not consistent with the values of the IDF and its orders. For the incident, an investigation was opened by the investigating military police, at the end of which the findings will be forwarded to the military attorney's office for examination"
Regarding yesterdays IDF library burning photo. Seems there will be an investigation.
Translation from Israeli newspaper:
"A photo of an IDF soldier inside Al-Aqsa University in Gaza City, with books burning behind him, was published in recent hours on networks around the world and caused a stir. Originally, we note, the photo was published without blurring the soldier's face - and it seems that it was originally distributed by the soldiers. A similar case, of burning a Koran book, also happened yesterday in Rafah.
The IDF stated that "this is a serious incident that is not consistent with the values of the IDF and its orders. For the incident, an investigation was opened by the investigating military police, at the end of which the findings will be forwarded to the military attorney's office for examination"
Comments
I'm now all quota'd out.
Or are we just shocked that a nice, middle class, white, pretty girl next door could be an evil serial killer?
If you post two, the second one had better be a window from which you will be defenestrated by the polished-to-a-mirror toe of @TSE 's Hermes Loafer.
Also take into account the way he is using immigration as a weapon. I would not be surprised if his 'agents' were behind much of the Channel trouble, which has increased massively since 2020.
Arkansas is pretty well irrelevant as far this Presidential elections is concerned.
Another mendacious shit, but he's probably better at it than Trump.
The Chinese have adopted the method.
In any case how big is the possibility? The Tories did quire well last time but will probably be down this time, and most incumbents standing as independents do poorly. Jeremy Corbyn she ain't.
I've no idea what the relative proportions are, but it could be that a lot of the dead and wounded aren't even from the Russian Federation, let alone from the Moscow/St Petersburg core.
There's a lot of competition for the most vile things that Russia has done in this war, but forcing the people of Donbas to fight against their own country is pretty high up there.
My main problem is that it is a subscription. I would be fine paying a small amount for every track that I listen to but that model isn't available. With all subscriptions I eventually end up not using the service any more, and then I don't get round to cancelling the subscription until a few years have gone by. As there are so many things using the subscrition model now I end up just refusing unless it there is no other choice at all eg. home internet provider.
number of the Russian mobilised are from outlying regions, higher in ethnic minorities as well, which tracks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pupienus
[fnarr, fnarr...]
Economist
Lab 381, Con 192, LD 22, SNP 27
New Statesman
Lab 427, Con 116, LD 63, SNP 21
ElectoralCalculus
Lab 479, Con 92, LD 44, SNP 12
ElectionMaps
Lab 460, Con 110, LD 44, SNP 12
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
But quashing their convictions seems to suggest they weren't gay. Which in most cases it would appear they were.
Exmouth Cons 34, L:abour 31, Lib Dems 6 Reform 19
Honiton: Cons 36, Labour 24, Lib Dem 16 Reform 16
Betting on Lib Dems seems a waste of time?
Show some sympathy.
I have a bigger problem that the convictions of famous people are quashed, but the conviction of John Bull of Sunderland in 1960 remains.
Incidentally, I think Stein was pretty good in his examination. Less subtle than Beer, but he was excellent at pressing meaningful questions "when did you know"; "when were you aware of this"; "whose advice was it that you relied on for this, please give their names now" etc.
On my viewing (FWIW) Vennells' evidence simply doesn't credibly stack up. She's just too certain about, and recalls too well events which suit her, while lapsing into utter vagueness regarding anything which might implicate her in the decision making, over the best part of a decade of her involvement, which helped lead to so many miscarriages of justice.
Whether that (and further evidence) could prove a criminal case against her beyond reasonable doubt is another matter - but this is, of course, not yet a trial.
Anyone who bought shares in Royal Mail float was, it appears, possibly misled by the sale process, as PO left out stuff to do with the Horizon scandal and possible future costs.
Class action time?
This weekend?
Jonny Diamond on WATO having a good old go at Starmer. Jonny is bigging up Corbyn. He's also trying to get Sharon Graham to back Corbyn, and she's just cut Corbyn adrift. Jonny seemed disappointed.
BBC News seems to be generating rather than reporting news.
Some more evidence, perhaps. ALLEGEDLY this xenophobic song has become a cult hit amongst young white Germans, see here:
https://x.com/maisumcarneiro/status/1793967533818773632
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#MPs_not_standing_for_re-election
This was the Tories as of this morning
https://democracy.islington.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=469
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkkr8l7jjxo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
have a preposterous amount of detail on such things.
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15767/retirements-2021?page=80
I won't be voting for Labour but journalists like Montague being put in their place so thoroughly certainly endear me to some of the prospective ministers.
Though we often disagree can I wish you the best of luck in the coming campaign and hope you get elected.
Translation from Israeli newspaper:
"A photo of an IDF soldier inside Al-Aqsa University in Gaza City, with books burning behind him, was published in recent hours on networks around the world and caused a stir. Originally, we note, the photo was published without blurring the soldier's face - and it seems that it was originally distributed by the soldiers. A similar case, of burning a Koran book, also happened yesterday in Rafah.
The IDF stated that "this is a serious incident that is not consistent with the values of the IDF and its orders. For the incident, an investigation was opened by the investigating military police, at the end of which the findings will be forwarded to the military attorney's office for examination"
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hjvhngcmc
Don't worry I won't be posting on Gaza again.
The BBC have photographic evidence of this event.
gravy trainHoL, which he hasn't done...I still remember 1992, and I still believe Sunak might win a majority.
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjrr9wqjnveo