Yes. The potential troubles associated with a massive majority in terms of party management or arrogant decision making are real, but he as with all leaders would be confident he could avoid that, and 450 would give him more options for action.
For the same reason despite all their woes and need to refresh the Tory leadership at least would still rather win than lose as they will always think there's a chance they could handle it.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?
You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?
"Vladimir Putin ready to 'freeze' war in Ukraine with ceasefire recognising recent Russian gains, sources say
Putin reportedly views recent gains in the war as enough to sell a victory to the Russian people, saving him from making unpopular decisions like spending more money and mobilising more people."
Until he's ready to unfreeze it. why should we trust him?
The thing is, they've made very minor 'gains' over the recent months at terrible cost. It would have been easier for him to 'propose' this at the beginning of the year.
I think this is most likely simply a ruse to persuade European leaders that they don't need to spend the money increasing armaments production, and encourage them to wait and see.
If it's genuine then it's a sign of the weakness of the Russian position, and that they don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. So we shouldn't either.
He was fairly clearly the leadership's preferred choice, so his selection became inevitable when the NEC stepped in - Moema might have run him close if it had gone to a ballot.
He's been taking a bit of stick throughout the process for not engaging with local or social media. Probably wise of him, given that there's an element within the CLP and more broadly in the constituency that wanted to see him trip up.
I don't think a Corbyn win is inevitable here - but Nargund will need to run a strong campaign if he's to get ahead. Some of the CLP will inevitably walk out in disgust and will actively campaign for Corbyn, but the bigger worry is over the number who might simply sit on their hands this time round.
400? 500? After an extreme, and unlikely, result, the opposition would, in effect, be a group of 100 Labour backbenchers outnumbering any and all of the other parties.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
Both Labour sources and some Tories are saying this is the most jaw-dropping moment of the week: the claim that Sunak misled a grieving mother about introducing legislation in her son’s name. ‘Psychotic’ says a Labour source. ‘Staggering’ says a Tory…"
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.
Anyone can read about ancient Rome too. Just because you can read about it, doesn't stop it feeling distant in time.
Fun fact: George III was born closer to the time that the Roman Empire existed, than to today.
You need to define your terms.
The Classical Empire fell in the West in AD 476 when Romulus Agustulus was overthrown by Odacer. The Byzantine Empire, which spoke Greek, not Latin and was a radical change from Classical Rome, even though it claimed continuity, fell with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Meanwhile the Holy Roman Empire, which claimed descent from the Western Empire, despite being founded in AD 800 by Frankish barbarians, did not formally dissolve until 1806. So George III, who lived from 1738 until 1820, that is 204 years from our own time, either lived 1262 years from the fall of the Western Empire, or he lived 286 years after the fall of Constantinople (so still lived closer to our own time), or he was actually contemporary with the Holy Roman Empire.
Oh, and one minor point, I did say "was born", not "lived". I was maximising the effect by choosing someone famous who was born just before the half way point.
You did, I was just making the point that the Roman Empire with togas really was a long time ago. The Byzantine Empire was only Roman in name, and quite a lot of places called themselves heirs to the Romans, including the HRE and even definitively barbarian Muscovy.
Culturally, aye, but it's a little harder to come up with a definitive time that the eastern part of the Roman Empire stopped being "Rome". Culturally, politically, and linguistically the England of Æthelstan is a long way from the England of Chucky the Turd. Is it the same entity? Continuity counts, even if everything else is in flux.
We are allowed to make differential judgements on whether or not we take seriously claims of inheritance to the Rome of Augustus. My own view is that what you call Byzantium deserves it and the likes of Muscovy do not. But your mileage may vary, and I certainly wouldn't want to get into a fight about definitions. Because in the end these labels are for convenience, not weapons in a debate.
ICJ orders Israel to halt Rafah offensive in Gaza The court rules that Israel must immediately halt its military offensive and other actions in Rafah, citing the "immediate risk" to the Palestinian people.
I see we now have a Reform candidate in Witham, opposing Dame Priti Patel. I wonder how much damage he’ll do! Two Labour posters displayed in Witham yesterday. Admittedly outside the Labour Hall. No Tory posters that I’ve seen to date.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
You're assuming that the state will always favour redistribution of wealth towards the old.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?
You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?
The ICJ has made several orders including for Israel to:
halt military operation in Rafah open the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for the entry of humanitarian aid at scale ensure access to Gaza for investigators and fact-finding missions report to the court within a month on its progress in applying these measures
He wants to be as certain as possible of winning at least 326 seats. Increasing that probability towards 100% had the consequence of increasing the probability of winning 450+ seats.
Even if he regarded winning 450 seats as less desirable than winning 360, there is zero chance of him risking not winning any majority in an attempt not to win too large a majority.
That said, I think a large majority would be seen as a good thing by Starmer, as it would give him the space and credibility to do what he felt needed to be done. I just hope he has good judgement.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
So which is bigger the swing or the roundabout ?
In a democracy, it doesn't matter.
We vote for what we want, not what we ought to want.
And as any veteran of 2016-19 will tell you, telling voters that they're getting/have got it wrong doesn't end well.
Private Healthcare entrepreneur picked by SKS Party to stand against Jezza.
Sounds apt for the SKS Party to pick such a person.
He runs a private IVF firm. IVF has long been something that is not fully supported on the NHS and many people welcome having it available privately. Would you ban private IVF?
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.
Anyone can read about ancient Rome too. Just because you can read about it, doesn't stop it feeling distant in time.
Fun fact: George III was born closer to the time that the Roman Empire existed, than to today.
You need to define your terms.
The Classical Empire fell in the West in AD 476 when Romulus Agustulus was overthrown by Odacer. The Byzantine Empire, which spoke Greek, not Latin and was a radical change from Classical Rome, even though it claimed continuity, fell with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Meanwhile the Holy Roman Empire, which claimed descent from the Western Empire, despite being founded in AD 800 by Frankish barbarians, did not formally dissolve until 1806. So George III, who lived from 1738 until 1820, that is 204 years from our own time, either lived 1262 years from the fall of the Western Empire, or he lived 286 years after the fall of Constantinople (so still lived closer to our own time), or he was actually contemporary with the Holy Roman Empire.
I think my definition is implicitly clear to anyone, like you, who knows the history: I'm regarding the fall of Constantinople as the end point. I recognise other schools of thought exist and I don't mind if people disagree. The purpose was only to bring the idea of Rome a little closer to the present than it seems at first glance. The idea that the Roman Empire (in my terms) lasted longer than England has existed by hundreds of years is pretty cool.
Both Labour sources and some Tories are saying this is the most jaw-dropping moment of the week: the claim that Sunak misled a grieving mother about introducing legislation in her son’s name. ‘Psychotic’ says a Labour source. ‘Staggering’ says a Tory…"
It's the trouble with Rishi having learned how to do politics from Boris.
Boris would have had no qualms about making a promise like this- it was what his immediate audience wanted to hear in the moment and implementation is tomorrow's problem.
But then again, Boris was staggeringly psychotic in that regard. There's no rule against terrible people rising to the top.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Private Healthcare entrepreneur picked by SKS Party to stand against Jezza.
Sounds apt for the SKS Party to pick such a person.
He runs a private IVF firm. IVF has long been something that is not fully supported on the NHS and many people welcome having it available privately. Would you ban private IVF?
Given current US right-wing politics, the UK left-wing banning private IVF (hence making it harder to get) would be another example of horseshoe politics.
Will the government help deliver Casement Park? Here’s some of what I put to the PM @RishiSunak who insisted there will be “significant contribution” from the government… but no clarity on how much or crucially, when
More to the point, why is he making a new policy announcement on behalf of the government?
I suspect he thought he was making an anodyne "yeah, I'm sure the government will support your local stadium whoever gets elected" statement - but, as ever in NI, it's more complicated than that. He shouldn't be wading in during an election period.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
So which is bigger the swing or the roundabout ?
In a democracy, it doesn't matter.
We vote for what we want, not what we ought to want.
And as any veteran of 2016-19 will tell you, telling voters that they're getting/have got it wrong doesn't end well.
Actually it does. Somebody has to pay the bills. Punting that mass immigration doesnt have any consequences is simply nonsense. There will be gains and losses and thats what should be informing the electorate.
If there is one unifying thread for the last five years of gov't it is this: The belief that having an idea is the same thing as making it come into being; that announcing a policy is the same as delivering it; that press releases are an adequate substitute for governing. ~AA
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?
You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?
Sarcasm or not? Hard to tell.
Not sarcasm. The idea that to talk about the negative effects of immigration is to scapegoat immigrants is a dishonest argument.
The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
I think what we are seeing is that all the talent and energy has moved since 2019 to Labour. The media operation is almost a complete reversal.
I suppose this may be very common as people want to be on the "winning" team and so you're left with only the true believers (or idiots).
So without getting ahead of myself, is there any value in the idea the Tories might actually poll less than they are now at some point during the campaign?
In other news I’ve had a letter from the relevant Officer of our local Council, advising me that my postal vote in the recent PFC election was disallowed because the signature wasn’t the same as that on my original postal vote application. I had a significant spinal operation in October 2022, which has severely affected my hand control; I think I’m going to have to vote in person next time; I can manage a big X.
Apparently Coutinho said it didn't matter that the legislation wasn't going to pass because Sunak had, "won the argument," over the policy, echoing one of Corbyn's claims about an election he had lost.
If there is one unifying thread for the last five years of gov't it is this: The belief that having an idea is the same thing as making it come into being; that announcing a policy is the same as delivering it; that press releases are an adequate substitute for governing. ~AA
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?
You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?
Sarcasm or not? Hard to tell.
Not sarcasm. The idea that to talk about the negative effects of immigration is to scapegoat immigrants is a dishonest argument.
The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).
Well, yes, but doesn't make the Tories scapegoats for high immigration; it makes them the actual drivers of high education. A scapegoat is someone blamed for something they didn't do, but in this case they actually did it. So they're not scapegoats.
I see we now have a Reform candidate in Witham, opposing Dame Priti Patel. I wonder how much damage he’ll do! Two Labour posters displayed in Witham yesterday. Admittedly outside the Labour Hall. No Tory posters that I’ve seen to date.
Priti too busy installing phone lines* for her forthcoming leadership campaign.
*Yes, I know this isn't a thing any more, but I enjoy saying it, with fond memories of leadership elections from days gone by.
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
Because you have to e.g. 2015, David Cameron in Northern Ireland: PM visits Belfast Game of Thrones set in whirlwind election campaign tour of UK.
You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
Because you have to e.g. 2015, David Cameron in Northern Ireland: PM visits Belfast Game of Thrones set in whirlwind election campaign tour of UK.
You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.
Wasn't a big part of 2015 going to Lib Dem target seats? This surely won't be the strategy this time, it will be about holding the Blue Wall seats they already have.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Anyone can read about WW2. This "distant in time" thing doesn't wash for me.
Anyone can read about ancient Rome too. Just because you can read about it, doesn't stop it feeling distant in time.
Fun fact: George III was born closer to the time that the Roman Empire existed, than to today.
You need to define your terms.
The Classical Empire fell in the West in AD 476 when Romulus Agustulus was overthrown by Odacer. The Byzantine Empire, which spoke Greek, not Latin and was a radical change from Classical Rome, even though it claimed continuity, fell with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Meanwhile the Holy Roman Empire, which claimed descent from the Western Empire, despite being founded in AD 800 by Frankish barbarians, did not formally dissolve until 1806. So George III, who lived from 1738 until 1820, that is 204 years from our own time, either lived 1262 years from the fall of the Western Empire, or he lived 286 years after the fall of Constantinople (so still lived closer to our own time), or he was actually contemporary with the Holy Roman Empire.
Oh, and one minor point, I did say "was born", not "lived". I was maximising the effect by choosing someone famous who was born just before the half way point.
You did, I was just making the point that the Roman Empire with togas really was a long time ago. The Byzantine Empire was only Roman in name, and quite a lot of places called themselves heirs to the Romans, including the HRE and even definitively barbarian Muscovy.
Indeed, Tsar comes from Ceasar. (Something that is more obvious when you realise the alternative spelling of Tsar is Czar.)
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
I know why politically Labour won't announce this during a GE campaign but they really should scrap the triple lock and focus on making working people the priority. We have been utterly left out to dry.
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
Because you have to e.g. 2015, David Cameron in Northern Ireland: PM visits Belfast Game of Thrones set in whirlwind election campaign tour of UK.
You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.
Besides, does anyone even know where the key battlegrounds are yet? Are they around Conservative seat 125 or seat 225?
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
Because you have to e.g. 2015, David Cameron in Northern Ireland: PM visits Belfast Game of Thrones set in whirlwind election campaign tour of UK.
You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.
It’s a fair point - and if you got to go over the water you may as well do it early. But given the state of polls and the fight the Conservatives are in you’d imagine they’d knock the symbolic stuff on the head.
I think what we are seeing is that all the talent and energy has moved since 2019 to Labour. The media operation is almost a complete reversal.
I suppose this may be very common as people want to be on the "winning" team and so you're left with only the true believers (or idiots).
So without getting ahead of myself, is there any value in the idea the Tories might actually poll less than they are now at some point during the campaign?
That would be the media operation that doesnt say anything.
It's like sticking a pair of glasses on a traffic bollard and calling it Keir.
As he criss crosses the nation, perhaps next the Tay Bridge ?
"Alas! I am very sorry to say That two hundred and ninety seats have been taken away On the first Thurs-day of July 2024 Which will be remember'd for evermore."
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
Because you have to e.g. 2015, David Cameron in Northern Ireland: PM visits Belfast Game of Thrones set in whirlwind election campaign tour of UK.
You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.
The Titanic Quarter is actually important in Belfast. The tweeting about it is - as ever - juvenile.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
Another issue is that, separated from the history we all grew up with, and therefore viewed in isolation with the moral disgust for both, fascists have a lot more fun than communists.
We saw a tiny bit of this in Brexit. Remain foolishly let Leave be the “Brexiteers” and linked them to boozing and parties. (Not for a second saying brexiteers are fascists - I voted Leave and don’t regret it).
Not convinced the Jews had that much fun in Nazi Germany, but obviously YMMV.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
One minute we need lots of people to pay for the oldies, the next AI will take all the jobs and everyone is jobless. Maybe a plan would help, with a bit of productivity thrown in.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Perhaps young people are more immune to easy scapegoating exercises than you give them credit for?
You mean scapegoating the Tories for our immigration policies?
Sarcasm or not? Hard to tell.
Not sarcasm. The idea that to talk about the negative effects of immigration is to scapegoat immigrants is a dishonest argument.
The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).
Well, yes, but doesn't make the Tories scapegoats for high immigration; it makes them the actual drivers of high education. A scapegoat is someone blamed for something they didn't do, but in this case they actually did it. So they're not scapegoats.
That's true as long as you don't deny that immigration policy is having those effects.
Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?
US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.
UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
Don't migrants become old and require care? Could it be easier to deal with a smaller number of elderly now than a much larger number in the future and embrace a little of the Japanese approach?
There are reports that another Russian S400 SAM setup got the good news last night
Russia are losing a fair few of their best SAM systems.
Not sure if this is that one, or the one from the day before, but here's one being hit *whilst* launching. There are lots of nice secondary explosions.
Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?
US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.
UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...
This is the question. Tw@ttering about visits to NI are irrelevant in this context. The ICJ have made a very firm ruling, my feeling is Israel will tell them to get stuffed and carry on as before, then politicians in US and UK have got to find a position. Its much trickier than the arrest warrant stuff, which is essentially hypothetical (other than weirdly Germany said they absolutely arrest them which would be a huge diplomatic shit storm).
But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
One minute we need lots of people to pay for the oldies, the next AI will take all the jobs and everyone is jobless. Maybe a plan would help, with a bit of productivity thrown in.
Maybe it would. The Tories ought to have tried something along those lines.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
This is a policy choice. Without state intervention, a situation where a large number of pensioners in aggregate have lots of assets and the pool of workers is restricted would lead to a transfer of wealth in favour of the young.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
One minute we need lots of people to pay for the oldies, the next AI will take all the jobs and everyone is jobless. Maybe a plan would help, with a bit of productivity thrown in.
Maybe it would. The Tories ought to have tried something along those lines.
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
The Northern Ireland Conservatives broke records in West Belfast in 2015 when they polled 34 votes, the worst performance by a major party at a UK election.
Can’t understand what the Conservative Party campaign are doing sending Sunak to NI. I appreciate there is a long way to go and I guess they want the gimmick of going to the four corners of the country. But what is the point?
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
The Northern Ireland Conservatives broke records in West Belfast in 2015 when they polled 34 votes, the worst performance by a major party at a UK election.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.
Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.
Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.
There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.
But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.
In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.
People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.
So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.
1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:
🔴 Lab 47% (+1) 🔵 Con 22% (-1) ⚪ Ref 12% (+1) 🟠 LD 8% (NC) 🟢 Green 6% (-2) 🟢 SNP 3% (+1)
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Yes - I was going to say this. The cost of paying for the pensions and care of the 65+ is at least as pertinent as housing pressures, and at least the migrants from other countries are generally working for a living, unlike (and I am purposefully saying a negative stereotype that is not my actual view) the Mail-reading, free-movement-denying boomers with no mortgage, triple-locked pensions and the petty self-entitled attitude of your average toddler.
The Titanic Quarter is actually important in Belfast.
More so if the Chancellor wasn't currently blocking a major investment there
Quite... I would also avoid anywhere within 20 miles of the HS2 route, especially the massive works around Lichfield. The locals are furious, they´ve had nearly two years of disruption and now its supposed to be cancelled.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.
Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.
Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.
There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.
But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.
In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.
People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.
So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.
When Sunak did loose women one of the weirdest attacks lines to him was why do you hate old people, why do you not support them and they are all in poverty....that can't be what people actually think given triple lock meaning they have been protected against the worst of the poor economic performance for many years.
Oh my god. 1.5 days in - Tragic speed in the rain, awful launch, annoying journos from the sun, planted qs, welsh euros gafe and visiting the titanic. Just incredible density of screw-ups. And this is things they likely had planned!
Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?
US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.
UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...
This is the question. Tw@ttering about visits to NI are irrelevant in this context. The ICJ have made a very firm ruling, my feeling is Israel will tell them to get stuffed and carry on as before, then politicians in US and UK have got to find a position. Its much trickier than the arrest warrant stuff, which is essentially hypothetical (other than weirdly Germany said they absolutely arrest them which would be a huge diplomatic shit storm).
But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?
On Germany, making it clear you would arrest presumably avoids visits and actually having to do the arrest, which would be a much bigger shitstorm.
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.
Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.
Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.
There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.
But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.
In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.
People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.
So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.
The other possible solution, as Alanbrooke sensibly points out, is a significant increase in productivity. Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.
Allington et al. (2023), reporting on a 2021 UK survey:
“Respondents identifying with the centre and right of the ideological spectrum had higher mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracy Suspicion and Judeophobic Antisemitism than respondents identifying [on] the left of the ideological spectrum, while respondents identifying with the left and centre of the ideological spectrum had higher mean scores for Antizionist Antisemitism and Generalised Antisemitism (which is the overlap between Judeophobic Antisemitism and Antizionist Antisemitism). Respondents who voted for Labour Party candidates and for candidates representing parties other than the Labour and Conservative Parties in 2019 had lower mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracy Suspicion and Judeophobic Antisemitism (although the diference from those who voted for Conservative Party candidates was very slight with regard to the latter), while respondents who did not vote at all had the highest mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracism, Generalised Antisemitism, and Judeophobic Antisemitism, and the second-highest mean score for Antizionist Antisemitism, with regard to which, Labour voters had slightly higher mean scores.”
I think this answers my question about what Israel will do....
Minutes after the decision of the International Court of Justice, warplanes launched a series of air strikes on the Shaboura camp in the centre of the city of Rafah.
Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer has been speaking to the BBC: "There is no power in the world that will push us to commit a public suicide, because that's what this is, to stop our war against Hamas."
---
US and UK politicians better decide what their lines are.
In other news I’ve had a letter from the relevant Officer of our local Council, advising me that my postal vote in the recent PFC election was disallowed because the signature wasn’t the same as that on my original postal vote application. I had a significant spinal operation in October 2022, which has severely affected my hand control; I think I’m going to have to vote in person next time; I can manage a big X.
I’m a bit miffed though!
I'm very surprised that they're checking these!
Signature verification is usually only done when there's a specific question about validity or a suspicion of forgery. I can't see any value in trying to do it proactively, especially since they're very unlikely to be using trained graphologists.
It's going to disproportionately affect people with physical disabilities, too - so likely on dodgy ground from an equalities point of view.
(Also likely to disproportionately hit the young - most under 30s will have signed fewer than 5 documents in their life, and a quarter of them have no consistent signature)
How widespread is this? Dunno. But it is certainly surprising to see apparently affluent white Germans openly doing Hitler moustache-and-salute moves while dancing
Young people are increasingly distant from WW2. Growing up, the war was an ever present reference point in my life, as it had shaped my grandparents' lives, and hung over my parents'. For my kids it's ancient history, like the Boer war was for me. As memories of the war fade I think a lot of the taboos around the far right are fading with them. Perhaps we have to relearn the lessons of where this kind of politics leads.
Also, how about reducing the insane levels of immigration? Young people are noticing
I'd quite like to avoid the point where these views become widespread
It might help or it might not. Young people are generally more positive on immigration than older people, and more tolerant in areas of high immigration than in areas of low immigration. I'm not convinced that London is swarming with young white men who are violently opposed to multiculturalism - they all speak with a Jamaican accent for a start. But my kids aren't white so I'm not an expert on young white people and their cultural practices.
Young people are overwhelmingly the ones who pay the price for mass immigration, in a literal sense, in the form of competition for housing and suppression of wages.
Sure: but young people are also by far the most likely to have friends who are from different countries, and they are the ones who will pay the most for an unbalanced population pyramid.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
Isn't it better for the young to have a top heavy pyramid if immigration is zero? Wouldn't it drive wages in the services sectors up and over time reduce the demand for housing?
Except for the fact that the government needs to extract money from a diminishing number of workers to pay for the care of an increasingly number elderly.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
I don't know what you think, Robert, but I think the underlying economic numbers point quite positively to the future. Investment is well up, over the past three years, the savings ratio is high, retail sales down, and the trade deficit falling.
Well, I'm generally negative - economically - on pretty much the entire developed world.
Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.
There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.
But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.
In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.
People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.
So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.
The problem really is people expecting the government to keep more than their end of the bargain.
This must be quite a sobering time for Keir Starmer, knowing that in less than 1,000 hours he's going to be handling nuclear codes, talking to Biden, dealing with Putin's antics, etc.
Oh my god. 1.5 days in - Tragic speed in the rain, awful launch, annoying journos from the sun, planted qs, welsh euros gafe and visiting the titanic. Just incredible density of screw-ups. And this is things they likely had planned!
Yeah - there will always be unfortunate gaffes and bits of bad luck, but all of this was highly predictable and avoidable.
Bigger question is will Israel follow the courts ruling? If not, what will the likes of the US and UK position be?
US will back Israel for multiple reasons including not recognising the court.
UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...
This is the question. Tw@ttering about visits to NI are irrelevant in this context. The ICJ have made a very firm ruling, my feeling is Israel will tell them to get stuffed and carry on as before, then politicians in US and UK have got to find a position. Its much trickier than the arrest warrant stuff, which is essentially hypothetical (other than weirdly Germany said they absolutely arrest them which would be a huge diplomatic shit storm).
But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?
Do we believe in International Law or not? It can be used in a partisan way, and it can be completely balanced. Calling for the arrest of *both sides* feels right to me. Of course the partisans will hate it but they always hate anyone saying they have done wrong.
What I hope this will make Israel do is Stop and Think. Netanyahu faces prosecution both within Israel and without. He may want to go even more aggressive to somehow ward that off, but as we have seen his partners in his (very shaky) government disagree. So it is pressure on them as well.
1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:
🔴 Lab 47% (+1) 🔵 Con 22% (-1) ⚪ Ref 12% (+1) 🟠 LD 8% (NC) 🟢 Green 6% (-2) 🟢 SNP 3% (+1)
Perhaps we need to get used the concept of 'swingaway'.
Comments
For the same reason despite all their woes and need to refresh the Tory leadership at least would still rather win than lose as they will always think there's a chance they could handle it.
If it's genuine then it's a sign of the weakness of the Russian position, and that they don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. So we shouldn't either.
He's been taking a bit of stick throughout the process for not engaging with local or social media. Probably wise of him, given that there's an element within the CLP and more broadly in the constituency that wanted to see him trip up.
I don't think a Corbyn win is inevitable here - but Nargund will need to run a strong campaign if he's to get ahead. Some of the CLP will inevitably walk out in disgust and will actively campaign for Corbyn, but the bigger worry is over the number who might simply sit on their hands this time round.
@PickardJE
Labour source:
“If Rishi Sunak lied to a grieving mother then he’ll lie to anyone. Why would anyone believe a word he says?”
But that is, or could be, the effect of FPTP.
So, it's swings and roundabouts.
After the rain on Wednesday, the Partridgian 'see the match?' cringe yesterday, I wonder what tomorrow's gaffe will be?
It's like the 'stop hitting yourself' bullying technique, except there is no bully. He's just hitting himself.
UTTERLY ASTONISHING by Sunak.
He's "disappointed" smoking ban won't become law, but says this is "evidence of the type of Prime Minister" that he is.
What? The type that fails to actually deliver even his own modest personal legacy? I think everyone knows by now, poppet. ~AA
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1793998472624132403
"Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
Both Labour sources and some Tories are saying this is the most jaw-dropping moment of the week: the claim that Sunak misled a grieving mother about introducing legislation in her son’s name. ‘Psychotic’ says a Labour source. ‘Staggering’ says a Tory…"
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1793944909893792085
Culturally, politically, and linguistically the England of Æthelstan is a long way from the England of Chucky the Turd. Is it the same entity? Continuity counts, even if everything else is in flux.
We are allowed to make differential judgements on whether or not we take seriously claims of inheritance to the Rome of Augustus. My own view is that what you call Byzantium deserves it and the likes of Muscovy do not. But your mileage may vary, and I certainly wouldn't want to get into a fight about definitions. Because in the end these labels are for convenience, not weapons in a debate.
ICJ orders Israel to halt Rafah offensive in Gaza
The court rules that Israel must immediately halt its military offensive and other actions in Rafah, citing the "immediate risk" to the Palestinian people.
Two Labour posters displayed in Witham yesterday. Admittedly outside the Labour Hall. No Tory posters that I’ve seen to date.
halt military operation in Rafah
open the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for the entry of humanitarian aid at scale
ensure access to Gaza for investigators and fact-finding missions
report to the court within a month on its progress in applying these measures
Dura_Ace was right - the only group with a Tory majority is 70+. It's 59%:9% Labour: Conservative in mine!
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins
Even if he regarded winning 450 seats as less desirable than winning 360, there is zero chance of him risking not winning any majority in an attempt not to win too large a majority.
That said, I think a large majority would be seen as a good thing by Starmer, as it would give him the space and credibility to do what he felt needed to be done. I just hope he has good judgement.
We vote for what we want, not what we ought to want.
And as any veteran of 2016-19 will tell you, telling voters that they're getting/have got it wrong doesn't end well.
Boris would have had no qualms about making a promise like this- it was what his immediate audience wanted to hear in the moment and implementation is tomorrow's problem.
But then again, Boris was staggeringly psychotic in that regard. There's no rule against terrible people rising to the top.
The only group where the Tories lead Labour, by 33% to 30%, is over-50s with a "low" level of education.
(Page 3 at https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_VotingIntention_240522_W.pdf )
I suspect he thought he was making an anodyne "yeah, I'm sure the government will support your local stadium whoever gets elected" statement - but, as ever in NI, it's more complicated than that. He shouldn't be wading in during an election period.
I very much look forward to Sunak’s visit to a veterinary surgery tomorrow, where he will see a lame duck put to sleep.
If there is one unifying thread for the last five years of gov't it is this: The belief that having an idea is the same thing as making it come into being; that announcing a policy is the same as delivering it; that press releases are an adequate substitute for governing. ~AA
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1794001146107068494
The record level of immigration we've seen over the last few years is entirely a policy choice by the Tories (perhaps because they tend to favour the interests of capital and the retired).
I’d be tearing my hair out if I was a Tory candidate. He’s not the most popular PM ever, but he’s who they got in the top job and bringing the current PM to a photo op in your constituency makes news. Even if it is only in the bumbleton express it is free media with a photo of the local candidate.
Rishi Sunak's planned election stops in full:
The Titanic Quarter
The lorry queue at Dover
Various places where HS2 might go if he hadn't cancelled it
Second home in California
Rwanda
I suppose this may be very common as people want to be on the "winning" team and so you're left with only the true believers (or idiots).
So without getting ahead of myself, is there any value in the idea the Tories might actually poll less than they are now at some point during the campaign?
I had a significant spinal operation in October 2022, which has severely affected my hand control; I think I’m going to have to vote in person next time; I can manage a big X.
I’m a bit miffed though!
Link
*Yes, I know this isn't a thing any more, but I enjoy saying it, with fond memories of leadership elections from days gone by.
You could argue that you get these places out of the way early, then concentrate on the key battlegrounds. That been said I don't think anybody thinks that Team Sunak have the sort of careful planning that Team Cameron had in 2015.
Look at the proportion of the UK government budget taken up by pensions and healthcare.
It's like sticking a pair of glasses on a traffic bollard and calling it Keir.
That two hundred and ninety seats have been taken away
On the first Thurs-day of July 2024
Which will be remember'd for evermore."
UK? Will Sunak want to make this an election issue as the Tories and Labour diverge on this? Making Starmer sound like the person saying Israel should be held to account is exactly the kind of thing this Tory campaign will probably do...
Russia are losing a fair few of their best SAM systems.
Not sure if this is that one, or the one from the day before, but here's one being hit *whilst* launching. There are lots of nice secondary explosions.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1793631578230263930
But if Israel do ignore the ruling, US / UK continue to send arms?
The Tories ought to have tried something along those lines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
Walking up the Falls Road with a Union Flag is for the adventurous.
Look at Italy and Japan. Lots of old people. Not a lot of young people.
There's a broad philosophical point which I think is really misunderstood, and that is that care for the old always comes out of the economic output of workers. If you have saving and pensions, then it comes out of companies' profits via dividends and bond payments. If you do not, then it comes out via taxation.
But economic output cannot be bottled up and stored. Saving is just a time transfer of work, and work is (largely) ephemeral. Someone needs to be there in the future to actually provide the healthcare, harvest the food, and wipe the butt.
In the UK, and I've shown a chart of this in the past, the proportion of government spending on oldies has risen inexorably. And will continue to do so. It's why we both have austerity (reduced government spending as a % of GDP in most departments), and record government taxes and spending.
People have worked all their lives, and paid taxes, and expect the government to keep their part of the deal. But young people, seeing their taxes rise to pay for the oldies, are likely to cry foul. And the solution the government has - import more workers! - brings with it a host of other issues.
So, I'm pretty pessimistic, all things considered.
1/ As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:
🔴 Lab 47% (+1)
🔵 Con 22% (-1)
⚪ Ref 12% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (-2)
🟢 SNP 3% (+1)
Though it's not at all clear how that's to come about in the UK in a manner which solves our problems.
“Respondents identifying with the centre and right of the ideological spectrum had higher mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracy Suspicion and Judeophobic Antisemitism than respondents identifying [on] the left of the ideological spectrum, while respondents identifying with the left and centre of the ideological spectrum had higher mean scores for Antizionist Antisemitism and Generalised Antisemitism (which is the overlap between Judeophobic Antisemitism and Antizionist Antisemitism). Respondents who voted for Labour Party candidates and for candidates representing parties other than the Labour and Conservative Parties in 2019 had lower mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracy Suspicion and Judeophobic Antisemitism (although the diference from those who voted for Conservative Party candidates was very slight with regard to the latter), while respondents who did not vote at all had the highest mean scores for Coronavirus Conspiracism, Generalised Antisemitism, and Judeophobic Antisemitism, and the second-highest mean score for Antizionist Antisemitism, with regard to which, Labour voters had slightly higher mean scores.”
Minutes after the decision of the International Court of Justice, warplanes launched a series of air strikes on the Shaboura camp in the centre of the city of Rafah.
Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer has been speaking to the BBC: "There is no power in the world that will push us to commit a public suicide, because that's what this is, to stop our war against Hamas."
---
US and UK politicians better decide what their lines are.
Signature verification is usually only done when there's a specific question about validity or a suspicion of forgery. I can't see any value in trying to do it proactively, especially since they're very unlikely to be using trained graphologists.
It's going to disproportionately affect people with physical disabilities, too - so likely on dodgy ground from an equalities point of view.
(Also likely to disproportionately hit the young - most under 30s will have signed fewer than 5 documents in their life, and a quarter of them have no consistent signature)
The triple lock was/is a big error.
What I hope this will make Israel do is Stop and Think. Netanyahu faces prosecution both within Israel and without. He may want to go even more aggressive to somehow ward that off, but as we have seen his partners in his (very shaky) government disagree. So it is pressure on them as well.