I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.
There's many an Independent would be in with a real chance if they gave it a proper shot.
We had a bit of a straw in the wind here in Winchcombe at the last Council elections. The usual Tory hegemony was broken by the Nice Lady Opposite who ran as a genuine Indy with no particular political programme other than to govern sensibly. She had only the assistance of her husband and son but she got home by about 50 votes (or 5%).
Speaking to her recently she says it's hard work, but interesting. It has helped that the customary Tory Majority was converted to NOC, so she finds there is generally scope for cross-party deals.
I think local and perhaps national government would improve generally if this were to happen more often, regardless of who is normally in charge.
Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.
Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.
And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?
The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?
No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.
He fixed his Liz Truss faux pas in 49 days.
He backed Boris, and then he backed Truss. I think we can all look forward to Bell ending his political career in July.
Aaron Bell was made a junior whip by Rishi iirc although this is not mentioned on his Wikipedia page (where the photo is about 20 years old when he still had hair). https://www.gov.uk/government/people/aaron-bell
Dagenham and Rainham 1/50 on Labour, with Cruddas standing down with whatever personal vote he has. These odds don't reflect likelihood even if they are correct about who should win, hence go value sniffing
Have there been boundary changes? I think this otherwise needs quite a deep Tory increase in majority to be a win. And this is not the type of urban seat where the Lab voters boycott over Gaza.
Minor changes to nominal result. Yeah it's a very likely hold but it ain't 50 to 1 on likely, its Labour defence number 8
Thanks, I was asking because I wanted to know what the proxy seats market figure could be - if this is a proxy for Con 370+, Lab < 190, say.
On topic: Exmouth and Exeter East Local Election Position (Exeter 24 and East Devon 23):
Con 9238 (28.8%) LD 8738 (27.3%) Lab 5192 (16.2%) Ind 4506 (14.1%) Grn 4305 (13.4%) Oth 57 (0.2%)
Coverage an important factor (other ignored): No Ind 24.8% All five 17.3% No Lab/Grn 16.2% No Lab 14.1% No Grn/Ind 13.1% No Lab/Ind 8.9% No Lab/Grn/Ind 5.6%
I'm not going to interpret for a GE situation at this point.
Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.
Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.
And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?
The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?
No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
Not the least amazing thing of the last few months is Paul Mason’s transformation into a Starmerite simp. Sad that thus far he’s not even got anything in return for such shameful public grovelling.
Little doubt Mason has gone into full "gimme a safe seat" mode recently, but he moved away from being Corbyn-sympathetic a while back. The really big break came over Ukraine when it belatedly dawned on him that, yes, that part of the left really would rather Putin was allowed to do whatever he wants over admitting sometimes Western military power was necessary.
Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.
Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.
And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?
The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?
No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.
I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.
There's many an Independent would be in with a real chance if they gave it a proper shot.
We had a bit of a straw in the wind here in Winchcombe at the last Council elections. The usual Tory hegemony was broken by the Nice Lady Opposite who ran as a genuine Indy with no particular political programme other than to govern sensibly. She had only the assistance of her husband and son but she got home by about 50 votes (or 5%).
Speaking to her recently she says it's hard work, but interesting. It has helped that the customary Tory Majority was converted to NOC, so she finds there is generally scope for cross-party deals.
I think local and perhaps national government would improve generally if this were to happen more often, regardless of who is normally in charge.
I'm always surprised Winchcombe isn't more LibDemmy. It strikes me as the sort of community-minded place where the LDs usually do well.
The essential point is one that I totally agree with @Sandpit about, even if we can argue the toss about specifics:
You need to believe that infrastructure matters for a nation's productivity and wellbeing.
I frankly find it astounding that anyone can find that contentious. There is no denying that we are seriously short of cash and living substantially beyond our means but if the cost of the NI cut was HS2 it was absolutely not a price worth paying. The focus on keeping consumption and current spending going at the price of long term investment is probably our greatest economic failing because it drives so many others such as low productivity and growth.
Not sure I see many signs of this improving under Labour but its a large black mark against the current government.
There are some very consistent polls pointing towards a Labour supermajority. "Won't happen" seems to be the consensus, but what if it does?
The British problem is that we lost track of strategic objectives in the 1970s. It takes a government with vision and absolute freedom to act to do transformative things. Thatcher had both. Blair had the majority and delivered so much detail, but was missing the transformative mission.
Starmer? His missions suggest he gets it. But in practice I would be astonished if they set out to actually transform the country in the way we need. Sadly.
Good morning
There is a very real possibility the present conservative party will be utterly humiliated on the 4th July and frankly they have nobody else to blame than themselves from the disaster of Truss (maybe the biggest gift to an opposition in recent history) to the internal factions openly attacking each other, and then Sunak upsetting their apple cart by calling (rightly) a snap election
I have no idea what happens to them next but Starmer as PM from 5th July will be the beginning of a very difficult political period but let's see just how he progresses as he will undoubtedly enjoy a honeymoon period
Jeremy Corbyn standing as an independent will hardly have any effect on Starmer
I think humiliation is on the cards, but what kind of humiliation? Is it down to between 150-200 seats? or is it even coming third in seats with around 70, which really would feel less like a humiliation and more like an extinction level event.
The polls say the Tories will be battered, but could it be worse than that?
This is the big question. My head says no at the moment, but it is very febrile.
The reason I think no is their performance at the locals. It showed a complete shellacking was coming, but not an utter collapse.
I think in the end there will be enough of the client vote persuaded to turn out to get them where they need to be to keep some of the more traditionally Tory seats. I am also not entirely convinced that the Lib Dem’s will be able to seize the moment as much as they did in 1997.
In the end an emphasis on tax bombshells, IHT, the VAT on schools policy will probably give them enough to get them to 150 at least.
BUT - the reason I am uncertain is because there is still a very febrile feeling in the polls and so far in the campaign, and Rishi is moving out of the blocks in a very low gear. If the campaign really continues to be that much of a damp squib and the Tories mess it up so bad that they dilute their core messaging, then it starts to become possible.
I really find it so difficult to predict, this one.
I’m not sure the LibDems seized the moment in 1997 so much as rode the tide. Similar conditions for this election but with the electorate in some of their core targets even more mutinous than in 1997. That bodes well, for me.
I think the Tory vote will hold up in the Midlands and that is what will save them from obliteration. Watch areas with sizeable Hindu and maybe to a lesser extent Sikh populations. They could buck trends.
Are there many Tory seats in the Midlands with sizeable Hindu or Sikh populations?
I can't comment on Brum or Coventry etc, but if we assume Hindus and Sikhs are mainly in cities (a fair assumption imo), Nottingham, Derby and Leicester only have one Tory MP out of 8 total - that's Amanda Solloway.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Those iconic images are thin on the ground. In years to come when Rishi's just a footnote and the 2090 British General election is beamed to his ranch in California he'll be able to say to his grandchildren.........
"See that crazy man in infront of the lectern in the rainstorm......no not the one falling into the sea ....that's Neil Kinnock ............it's ME!'
I was about to comment about him being long dead by then but thought to check first and was amazed to find he was only born in 1980. So he would be 110 in 2090.
Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.
Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.
And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?
The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?
No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
The essential point is one that I totally agree with @Sandpit about, even if we can argue the toss about specifics:
You need to believe that infrastructure matters for a nation's productivity and wellbeing.
I frankly find it astounding that anyone can find that contentious. There is no denying that we are seriously short of cash and living substantially beyond our means but if the cost of the NI cut was HS2 it was absolutely not a price worth paying. The focus on keeping consumption and current spending going at the price of long term investment is probably our greatest economic failing because it drives so many others such as low productivity and growth.
Not sure I see many signs of this improving under Labour but its a large black mark against the current government.
There are some very consistent polls pointing towards a Labour supermajority. "Won't happen" seems to be the consensus, but what if it does?
The British problem is that we lost track of strategic objectives in the 1970s. It takes a government with vision and absolute freedom to act to do transformative things. Thatcher had both. Blair had the majority and delivered so much detail, but was missing the transformative mission.
Starmer? His missions suggest he gets it. But in practice I would be astonished if they set out to actually transform the country in the way we need. Sadly.
Good morning
There is a very real possibility the present conservative party will be utterly humiliated on the 4th July and frankly they have nobody else to blame than themselves from the disaster of Truss (maybe the biggest gift to an opposition in recent history) to the internal factions openly attacking each other, and then Sunak upsetting their apple cart by calling (rightly) a snap election
I have no idea what happens to them next but Starmer as PM from 5th July will be the beginning of a very difficult political period but let's see just how he progresses as he will undoubtedly enjoy a honeymoon period
Jeremy Corbyn standing as an independent will hardly have any effect on Starmer
I think humiliation is on the cards, but what kind of humiliation? Is it down to between 150-200 seats? or is it even coming third in seats with around 70, which really would feel less like a humiliation and more like an extinction level event.
The polls say the Tories will be battered, but could it be worse than that?
This is the big question. My head says no at the moment, but it is very febrile.
The reason I think no is their performance at the locals. It showed a complete shellacking was coming, but not an utter collapse.
I think in the end there will be enough of the client vote persuaded to turn out to get them where they need to be to keep some of the more traditionally Tory seats. I am also not entirely convinced that the Lib Dem’s will be able to seize the moment as much as they did in 1997.
In the end an emphasis on tax bombshells, IHT, the VAT on schools policy will probably give them enough to get them to 150 at least.
BUT - the reason I am uncertain is because there is still a very febrile feeling in the polls and so far in the campaign, and Rishi is moving out of the blocks in a very low gear. If the campaign really continues to be that much of a damp squib and the Tories mess it up so bad that they dilute their core messaging, then it starts to become possible.
I really find it so difficult to predict, this one.
I’m not sure the LibDems seized the moment in 1997 so much as rode the tide. Similar conditions for this election but with the electorate in some of their core targets even more mutinous than in 1997. That bodes well, for me.
I think the Tory vote will hold up in the Midlands and that is what will save them from obliteration. Watch areas with sizeable Hindu and maybe to a lesser extent Sikh populations. They could buck trends.
Are there many Tory seats in the Midlands with sizeable Hindu or Sikh populations?
I can't comment on Brum or Coventry etc, but if we assume Hindus and Sikhs are mainly in cities (a fair assumption imo), Nottingham, Derby and Leicester only have one Tory MP out of 8 total - that's Amanda Solloway.
And that perhaps limits this edge.
Interesting hypothesis. The local elections might have data to confirm whether it's evidenced so far, or not.
Third Day of the Vennels Inquisiton about to start.
Beer has finished. It's the turn of the SPM lawyers. They tend to be less forensic and more brutal. As long as she doesn't mind what people think of her, she should get through unscathed.
All the evidence suggests she doesn't give a shit what people think of her.
Btw, I learned recently that she is supported by a very expensive team of top lawyers. I wonder who is paying for this? My guess is that it is the Post Office, and that they are also providing legal advice for the other witnesses. If correct, that would certainly explain why so few have gone rogue, and told the truth about what was really going on.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
I very genuinely liked the Rishi Sunak I chatted to on one of CalMac's few functional ferries in 2020. Have said so repeatedly. He seemed like a genuine guy planted in reality.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.
Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.
And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?
The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?
No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
One possible 'advantage' he might get is now the non 'more politically obsessed' are engaging they'll be turned off by the viciousness of the 'Tory scum' types or by more personal attacks. Same for the right savaging Starmer of course
With due respect, I think Quincel is starting from the wrong place and talking about the wrong seat.
The area which Claire Wright represented on the County Council, as somebody has said, lies in the outgoing Tiverton and Honiton division. This is also being split, but the larger part moves into the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat, which the sitting Lib Dem MP has decided to contest.
The area that moves into the new Honiton & Sidmouth from the old East Devon constituency is relatively small. No idea why the current Tory MP for East Devon decided to abandon most of his existing seat and decide to take on the Lib Dem incumbent - but then, as has been observed, most current Tory MPs are mad.
And of course Claire Wright backed Lib Dem Richard Foord in the byelection, as did most of her supporters, presumably, since Richard Foord won the seat. Not quite sure why the usual suspects see these people going to Labour when they have to make a choice between Lib Dem and Lab later this year, when they have already gone Lib Dem.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
I very genuinely liked the Rishi Sunak I chatted to on one of CalMac's few functional ferries in 2020. Have said so repeatedly. He seemed like a genuine guy planted in reality.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
I guess that when you become CofTE and PM you are surrounded by a huge team of SPADS, civil servants, representations from CCHQ all telling you “let us take care of x and y as you have lots of other things to do and you need to present a face to the public of being in charge”.
This then stops you actually being you as you have been assured by all and sundry that you need to behave a certain way but also your actual abilities are not being used because all the competing pillars are pushing or blocking because they want different results.
You have to be a certain character to rise above that and it probably requires a spell as opposition leader or a long period in politics to get there which Sunak didn’t have. He was likely ten years and two crises early to use any ability he has.
Sidmouth and Honiton is my constituency. Labour will not contest it and have a paper candidate. The focus of the local CLP is Exmouth and Exeter East, as well as the Plymouth seats. There have been regular coach trips to both every weekend for many months.
IN S&H Simon Jupp - who has very deep pockets - has been throwing money at the local papers for a long time, He has been far more visible than Richard Foord. However, I suspect he was counting on a bit more time before the GE to re-establish himself after having been away for a very long time.
Sidmouth and Honiton is my constituency. Labour will not contest it and have a paper candidate. The focus of the local CLP is Exmouth and Exeter East, as well as the Plymouth seats. There have been regular coach trips to both every weekend for many months.
IN S&H Simon Jupp - who has very deep pockets - has been throwing money at the local papers for a long time, He has been far more visible than Richard Foord. However, I suspect he was counting on a bit more time before the GE to re-establish himself after having been away for a very long time.
My guess is that this is a LibDem gain.
Thanks for this. Worth remembering, paper candidates sometimes win (probably not in S&H, but there might be one or two elsewhere that do).
The interesting thing is that SKS was called Ed M 2.0 at the start. Who would he be closest to now, Wilson perhaps?
A cross between Wilson and Theresa May. The latter isn’t meant as a big criticism - he is not that quick-witted but probably does have a decent underpinning/sense of purpose - but he is also a better party manager and tactician than May ever was which is why there is definitely a bit of Wilson in him.
I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.
There's many an Independent would be in with a real chance if they gave it a proper shot.
We had a bit of a straw in the wind here in Winchcombe at the last Council elections. The usual Tory hegemony was broken by the Nice Lady Opposite who ran as a genuine Indy with no particular political programme other than to govern sensibly. She had only the assistance of her husband and son but she got home by about 50 votes (or 5%).
Speaking to her recently she says it's hard work, but interesting. It has helped that the customary Tory Majority was converted to NOC, so she finds there is generally scope for cross-party deals.
I think local and perhaps national government would improve generally if this were to happen more often, regardless of who is normally in charge.
Tewkesbury pushed the Tories into second at the borough elections, with 16 Lib Dems to 9 Tory (plus 7 independent, and 4 green). The new council has been getting very positive notices.
Corbyn has, I think, been expelled from the Labour Party now he's announced
Yup, then in July he might just get enough votes to save his deposit but not his career.
He'll get a lot of help from the various left indies and Gaza protestors He'll run it very close and could easily win
How much local machine will he have, or will that choose to stay with the party? His announcement will have put a lot of his supporters and friends in a really awkward spot.
Meanwhile, this is presumably good news morally (as a country we spend too much) but not great for a government seeking re-election;
Retail sales fell 2.3% in April 2024, following a revised fall of 0.2% in March 2024 (revised from 0.0%).
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
I very genuinely liked the Rishi Sunak I chatted to on one of CalMac's few functional ferries in 2020. Have said so repeatedly. He seemed like a genuine guy planted in reality.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
I guess that when you become CofTE and PM you are surrounded by a huge team of SPADS, civil servants, representations from CCHQ all telling you “let us take care of x and y as you have lots of other things to do and you need to present a face to the public of being in charge”.
This then stops you actually being you as you have been assured by all and sundry that you need to behave a certain way but also your actual abilities are not being used because all the competing pillars are pushing or blocking because they want different results.
You have to be a certain character to rise above that and it probably requires a spell as opposition leader or a long period in politics to get there which Sunak didn’t have. He was likely ten years and two crises early to use any ability he has.
Far too many twenty and thirty somethings with no experience outside politics and media being listened to by PMs these days ahead of their cabinet colleagues, not to mention their predecessors who are viewed as dinosaurs rather than wise counsellors.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
It's not as if you demanded conviction for treason and the reintroduction of capital punishment for someone wanting Scottish independence, ditto invasion by armoured divisions (what divisions? of the "British" Army across the border. Now those could have been tricky ...
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
I very genuinely liked the Rishi Sunak I chatted to on one of CalMac's few functional ferries in 2020. Have said so repeatedly. He seemed like a genuine guy planted in reality.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
I guess that when you become CofTE and PM you are surrounded by a huge team of SPADS, civil servants, representations from CCHQ all telling you “let us take care of x and y as you have lots of other things to do and you need to present a face to the public of being in charge”.
This then stops you actually being you as you have been assured by all and sundry that you need to behave a certain way but also your actual abilities are not being used because all the competing pillars are pushing or blocking because they want different results.
You have to be a certain character to rise above that and it probably requires a spell as opposition leader or a long period in politics to get there which Sunak didn’t have. He was likely ten years and two crises early to use any ability he has.
I kind of feel like he's got a similar problem to Gordon Brown?
I think Sunak deserves genuine credit for the furlough scheme which he'd clearly worked hard and thought through when he was Chancellor.
But Blair always used to say that the problem with Brown was that he was good at making a few decisions, occasionally whereas as PM you need to make big decisions all the time and Brown couldn't do that. I kind of feel similarly with Sunak, look at how he's gone between being the continuity candidate, to the change candidate, to the continuity candidate again.
The market town of Bentham, which is home to 3,000 people and set on the banks of the River Wenning, is also home to the Angus International Safety Group – locally known as Angus Fire – which, since the 1970s, has been producing firefighting foams containing PFAS at a factory near the town centre...
Not good news for anything downstream, either.
At some point someone will rebrand rocks as forever chemicals. What matters is are they harmful.
Harmful, and persist in the environment for a very long time indeed (and accumulate at the top of the food chain, where we sit) without chemically breaking down, unlike a lot of toxins.
Rocks tend to weather, both mechanically and chemically.
3M was the biggest manufacturer, for five decades (and covered up their test results which showed them to be dangerous).
Also hormone disrupters, which might have had all kinds of consequences.
Not the least amazing thing of the last few months is Paul Mason’s transformation into a Starmerite simp. Sad that thus far he’s not even got anything in return for such shameful public grovelling.
The only really good decision Sunak made was furlough. I remember CHB (please come back) saying that Sunak was overrated back when Eat Out to Help Out was around and people were saying Sunak would continue after Johnson's 10 years in office.
My view is that he has the ability to be competent - but he hasn't got any political experience to know how to use it. I can totally buy how he was so successful in the finance world. He's clearly a smart chap.
Third Day of the Vennels Inquisiton about to start.
Beer has finished. It's the turn of the SPM lawyers. They tend to be less forensic and more brutal. As long as she doesn't mind what people think of her, she should get through unscathed.
All the evidence suggests she doesn't give a shit what people think of her.
Btw, I learned recently that she is supported by a very expensive team of top lawyers. I wonder who is paying for this? My guess is that it is the Post Office, and that they are also providing legal advice for the other witnesses. If correct, that would certainly explain why so few have gone rogue, and told the truth about what was really going on.
Also perhaps explaining (as someone commented - you?) the other day, why Ms V was suspiciously able to quote chapter and verse from other witnesses' statements.
Corbyn has, I think, been expelled from the Labour Party now he's announced
Yup, then in July he might just get enough votes to save his deposit but not his career.
He'll get a lot of help from the various left indies and Gaza protestors He'll run it very close and could easily win
Maybe, I’m certain he’ll outpoll the Tories but think the Labour vote will actually largely hold up. I don’t see him winning the seat. It’s a weird situation though that a party is booting out a guy that less than 5 years ago they asked the country to elect PM.
Corbyn has, I think, been expelled from the Labour Party now he's announced
Yup, then in July he might just get enough votes to save his deposit but not his career.
He'll get a lot of help from the various left indies and Gaza protestors He'll run it very close and could easily win
How much local machine will he have, or will that choose to stay with the party? His announcement will have put a lot of his supporters and friends in a really awkward spot.
Meanwhile, this is presumably good news morally (as a country we spend too much) but not great for a government seeking re-election;
Retail sales fell 2.3% in April 2024, following a revised fall of 0.2% in March 2024 (revised from 0.0%).
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
It must be difficult for you as a “lifelong Labour voter” to see Labour doing so well in the polls. Don’t worry, there is plenty of time for things to change!!
I've not yet found any screamingly obvious bets at Bet365 but a couple of oddities at least...
Bristol Central is priced up as Green 1/2 odds on to win, with Labour at 6/4 against - Personally I'd have put those odds the other way around
Chichester is odd... it's priced as Labour favourites 4/6, Cons at 13/8 and LD at 6/1. I don't quite see how they get those prices. I would have Cons as narrow odds on favourites, with LD the most likely challenger. I'm aware that it's gone through some Boundary changes but swapping conservative voting rural south downs for conservative voting retirement outskirts of Bognor is a bit of a wash, and I wonder what I'm missing.
Corbyn has, I think, been expelled from the Labour Party now he's announced
Yup, then in July he might just get enough votes to save his deposit but not his career.
He'll get a lot of help from the various left indies and Gaza protestors He'll run it very close and could easily win
How much local machine will he have, or will that choose to stay with the party? His announcement will have put a lot of his supporters and friends in a really awkward spot.
Meanwhile, this is presumably good news morally (as a country we spend too much) but not great for a government seeking re-election;
Retail sales fell 2.3% in April 2024, following a revised fall of 0.2% in March 2024 (revised from 0.0%).
Third Day of the Vennels Inquisiton about to start.
Beer has finished. It's the turn of the SPM lawyers. They tend to be less forensic and more brutal. As long as she doesn't mind what people think of her, she should get through unscathed.
All the evidence suggests she doesn't give a shit what people think of her.
Btw, I learned recently that she is supported by a very expensive team of top lawyers. I wonder who is paying for this? My guess is that it is the Post Office, and that they are also providing legal advice for the other witnesses. If correct, that would certainly explain why so few have gone rogue, and told the truth about what was really going on.
Also perhaps explaining (as someone commented - you?) the other day, why Ms V was suspiciously able to quote chapter and verse from other witnesses' statements.
Indeed. Company provided lawyers are second only to NDAs in concealing the truth.
I don’t see it. Labour will pick too much of Wright’s vote up. Wright could have won it though.
There's many an Independent would be in with a real chance if they gave it a proper shot.
We had a bit of a straw in the wind here in Winchcombe at the last Council elections. The usual Tory hegemony was broken by the Nice Lady Opposite who ran as a genuine Indy with no particular political programme other than to govern sensibly. She had only the assistance of her husband and son but she got home by about 50 votes (or 5%).
Speaking to her recently she says it's hard work, but interesting. It has helped that the customary Tory Majority was converted to NOC, so she finds there is generally scope for cross-party deals.
I think local and perhaps national government would improve generally if this were to happen more often, regardless of who is normally in charge.
I'm always surprised Winchcombe isn't more LibDemmy. It strikes me as the sort of community-minded place where the LDs usually do well.
It is very white, middle-class, conservative heartland. There is a lot of LD support nearby, especially in Cheltenham. Tewkesbury, by contrast, demostrates a lot of Labour support.
We're very much outsiders. I'm from Hackney, which is bad enough, but worse, my wife has a Canadian accent, which is usually mistaken for American, and this occasionally provokes anti-american remarks.
Don't be seduced by that charming Cotswold veneer. For a truer picture, I would refer you to the brilliant comedy, Hot Fuzz.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
I very genuinely liked the Rishi Sunak I chatted to on one of CalMac's few functional ferries in 2020. Have said so repeatedly. He seemed like a genuine guy planted in reality.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
I guess that when you become CofTE and PM you are surrounded by a huge team of SPADS, civil servants, representations from CCHQ all telling you “let us take care of x and y as you have lots of other things to do and you need to present a face to the public of being in charge”.
This then stops you actually being you as you have been assured by all and sundry that you need to behave a certain way but also your actual abilities are not being used because all the competing pillars are pushing or blocking because they want different results.
You have to be a certain character to rise above that and it probably requires a spell as opposition leader or a long period in politics to get there which Sunak didn’t have. He was likely ten years and two crises early to use any ability he has.
I kind of feel like he's got a similar problem to Gordon Brown?
I think Sunak deserves genuine credit for the furlough scheme which he'd clearly worked hard and thought through when he was Chancellor.
But Blair always used to say that the problem with Brown was that he was good at making a few decisions, occasionally whereas as PM you need to make big decisions all the time and Brown couldn't do that. I kind of feel similarly with Sunak, look at how he's gone between being the continuity candidate, to the change candidate, to the continuity candidate again.
Sunak has also had to deal with vicious party infighting - I think it’s probably been worse due to more and more vicious factions than Major had to deal with - which has made his life harder.
If you look at things such as the Windsor framework and his attempts to improve relations with the EU I think, if he wasn’t being pulled in violently different directions by the two main factions of the party, he would actually be a good compromiser, a pragmatist not ideologue.
I would think that every single day he had constant pressures from one faction then another demanding opposite actions and making threats.
Frankly it would be impossible to achieve much except try and keep on the economic tightrope and throw red meat to either side on other matters whist you focus on the economy.
He could have been a good alternative to Brown after Blair, he would have got the GFC as it’s his world, he wouldn’t have been such a tribal brooding git. Economically dry, pretty socially liberal and not going to scare the horses.
Corbyn has, I think, been expelled from the Labour Party now he's announced
Yup, then in July he might just get enough votes to save his deposit but not his career.
He'll get a lot of help from the various left indies and Gaza protestors He'll run it very close and could easily win
Maybe, I’m certain he’ll outpoll the Tories but think the Labour vote will actually largely hold up. I don’t see him winning the seat. It’s a weird situation though that a party is booting out a guy that less than 5 years ago they asked the country to elect PM.
It is weird, but the real weirdness was in 2019, when both of the big two put forward candidates for PM who were manifestly unfit for the role. And who went on to fail in dismally predictable ways.
At least Labour have unambiguously had their "I know thee not, old man" moment. A fair chunk of the Conservative party still hanker after their old man.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
Bet365's advantages include, imo, the best website which is fast, easy to navigate, and not forever trying to tempt you to try their casino games, and no shops. Their prices are generally good but together with their BOG offer, is not as good as they used to be, but generally among the best in the village.
Take this election. Bet365 has prices on most if not all constituencies already. Ladbrokes has 40. Hills has none that I can find. Skybet has 16. Betfair Exchange 50.
And of course it is only Bet365 of those that has prices for Exmouth & Exeter East as per Quincel's header.
You know who developed the Bet365 website?
The current Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Didn’t he also back Liz Truss for leader/pm?
No one’s perfect I guess.
Aaron was also one of the first Tory MPs to call Boris Johnson out for being a liar over the lockdown breaches, he was also utterly magnificent over the Owen Paterson shenanigans, John Swinney take note.
That was possibly the beginning of the end........anyone know if TP has a chance of keeping his seat?
Barring accidents, no. RefUK has announced its candidate who will likely take votes from TP.
Well Parliaments loss will be PB's gain. I've just done an opinion poll of one in Islington North and allowing for a margin of error of + or - 100% it has Corbyn winning
Third Day of the Vennels Inquisiton about to start.
Beer has finished. It's the turn of the SPM lawyers. They tend to be less forensic and more brutal. As long as she doesn't mind what people think of her, she should get through unscathed.
All the evidence suggests she doesn't give a shit what people think of her.
Btw, I learned recently that she is supported by a very expensive team of top lawyers. I wonder who is paying for this? My guess is that it is the Post Office, and that they are also providing legal advice for the other witnesses. If correct, that would certainly explain why so few have gone rogue, and told the truth about what was really going on.
Despite my avatar, I couldn't be a juror in her likely upcoming trial.
I'm already persuaded that the PO witnesses been carefully schooled in how to obfuscate what they actually did, while keeping the readily provable lies to a minimum.
I've not yet found any screamingly obvious bets at Bet365 but a couple of oddities at least...
Bristol Central is priced up as Green 1/2 odds on to win, with Labour at 6/4 against - Personally I'd have put those odds the other way around
Chichester is odd... it's priced as Labour favourites 4/6, Cons at 13/8 and LD at 6/1. I don't quite see how they get those prices. I would have Cons as narrow odds on favourites, with LD the most likely challenger. I'm aware that it's gone through some Boundary changes but swapping conservative voting rural south downs for conservative voting retirement outskirts of Bognor is a bit of a wash, and I wonder what I'm missing.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
It's not as if you demanded conviction for treason and the reintroduction of capital punishment for someone wanting Scottish independence, ditto invasion by armoured divisions (what divisions? of the "British" Army across the border. Now those could have been tricky ...
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
The woman interviewer asks him all these questions trying to catch him out and then keeps interru
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
He was pretty poor on R4 this morning. I’ve never heard him sound so unsure. Really desperate not to commit to anything and was troubled by gentle probing by Mishal Husain over the NHs v Student fees question. Tried to swerve through the Palestine issue, how quickly VAT on school fees would happen and the Doctors appointments pledge etc etc.
I also have bias but I did think that maybe there is method in the Tories wanting weekly tv debates between Sunak and Starmer as he was evasive and Sunak (for his faults) was much more direct in his R4 interview yesterday by comparison.
It’s very easy for people to say he’s going to be good on his feet as he was a Barrister but how often was he really doing the Rumpole of the Bailey/Good Wife stuff as DPP and when he did how often was he just pointing out facts from a prepared list of facts rather than actually facing a grilling where he is being questioned instead? Not necessarily the same skills.
Obviously the expulsion of the leader at the last GE is Labour's first big test/drama of the campaign and it comes as the switched off are switching on. These are the sort of moments that can make a difference unexpectedly to those of us who are wonks for Westminster events and always in tune to developments. Corbyn has his fans, Labour needs them to not revolt. That said I don't think it will shift things but..... there's always but
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
Ignore Starmer?
This is a political betting site. He is posting political news and comments. Is the issue that you dislike the news?
Shouldnt you be our campaigning ?
No. I have a job. Clients to keep happy.
This isn’t a dig, a genuine question, have you had to go through your old Pb posts and check you haven’t posted anything, especially after the lagershed, that could cause you difficulties if your opponent picks up on them?
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
It's not as if you demanded conviction for treason and the reintroduction of capital punishment for someone wanting Scottish independence, ditto invasion by armoured divisions (what divisions? of the "British" Army across the border. Now those could have been tricky ...
I'm a conviction federalist and have been since doing A-Level politics a long long time ago. Labour weren't interested, but obviously its a core policy for the LibDems albeit one that doesn't get much air time.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
I think it’s the best way to answer that type of question. Acknowledge that you have made a choice/alteration but blame your opponents for putting you in the position that the choice was necessary. Good politics because most voters who don’t overthink politics will see it as an honest answer.
It’s still unlikely, but answers like that could easily lead me towards voting for him. Even though I’m instinctively more centre right, there just isn’t a decent option on my side of the political divide.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
It has the advantage of being based somewhere within eyeshot of reality.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
The woman interviewer asks him all these questions trying to catch him out and then keeps interru
Swift correction to the spreads. You can't sell Lab at 408 now. It's 390. That's more like it imo.
Thanks to Q for another real shrewdie-piece.
Legendary modesty klaxon about the spreads.
Yep. And I myself did opine it looked a professional sell.
(i) Swingback, Reform withering, campaign impact, 'better the devil you know', economy looking better, Get Rwanda Done, lack of enthusiasm for SKS ... Labour win a solid majority, Cons of the order 200.
(ii) The country has absolutely had it with the Tories and hand them a punishment beating, the centre goes Labour, the right goes Reform ... massive Labour landslide, Cons more like 100.
All you have to do is decide which of these will happen - before it becomes obvious. Then you clean up. It's as easy as that.
I listened to Starmer being interviewed on R4 this morning. It wasn't a softball interview - he was pushed on broken pledges, spending plans, Palestine and so forth. He was a consummate professional and dealt with it all with considerable aplomb. I reckon undecided voters would think: 'yeh, fair enough, that all makes sense'. It continues to be my view that far too many people seriously underestimate Starmer, and that he's going to win a good majority not just because the Tories are rubbish but because voters will decide that he'll make a pretty decent, sensible PM.
I see that PB was talking about infrastructure earlier.
Well the way to get more infrastructure built is to make sure that current infrastructure projects are completed on time and within budget.
I wonder does anyone have any data on how many infrastructure projects achieve this ?
And are there any patterns as to the cost effectiveness and speed in infrastructure building.
Now it seems that the bigger the infrastructure project the more overbudget and behind schedule it will be.
Especially anything which claims to be 'world leading' or 'biggest in Europe'.
If so it might suggest that this country would be better concentrating on small to medium sized infrastructure.
But that impression might be formed only because the bigger the infrastructure projects is the more media attention it gets.
I see the idiots complaining about infrastructure linking London to the SW have got another shot at moaning in court. I believe that one of the reasons we never do anything quickly is too much opportunity for involving the law in these kind of situations. Just get on with it.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
I think it’s the best way to answer that type of question. Acknowledge that you have made a choice/alteration but blame your opponents for putting you in the position that the choice was necessary. Good politics because most voters who don’t overthink politics will see it as an honest answer.
It’s still unlikely, but answers like that could easily lead me towards voting for him. Even though I’m instinctively more centre right, there just isn’t a decent option on my side of the political divide.
It comes down to a divide within Labour -
1) X is a good thing. We must do it. Even thinking of the cost is bad. 2) X is a good thing. We should do it, if we can afford it.
Historically, 1) is supported by a minority of the country. 2) wins elections.
Corbyn has, I think, been expelled from the Labour Party now he's announced
Yup, then in July he might just get enough votes to save his deposit but not his career.
He'll get a lot of help from the various left indies and Gaza protestors He'll run it very close and could easily win
How much local machine will he have, or will that choose to stay with the party? His announcement will have put a lot of his supporters and friends in a really awkward spot.
Meanwhile, this is presumably good news morally (as a country we spend too much) but not great for a government seeking re-election;
Retail sales fell 2.3% in April 2024, following a revised fall of 0.2% in March 2024 (revised from 0.0%).
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
I think he’s nailed it though, hasn’t he?
You had to feel sorry for him. Well, I did, anyway.
But where are his Spads? Surely one of them would have thought to provide an umbrella, and do something about that noxious narcissist playing music to drown out the PM.
Is there much worse for a PM than people starting to feel sorry for them?
Confession time, None. I've always quite liked him, and have occasionally stuck up for him here, although I can he doesn't seem to be very good at politics, which is a bit of a handicap if you are in his position.
He's the Tory's Ed Miliband. Decent, impossible to hate, very good in the right job, leaden footed, wooden in delivery, slightly anxious to please, unspontaneous, nowhere close to being PM material, when watching him perform always slightly anxious that your toes will curl - as all ten toes did in the rain on Wednesday.
I very genuinely liked the Rishi Sunak I chatted to on one of CalMac's few functional ferries in 2020. Have said so repeatedly. He seemed like a genuine guy planted in reality.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
I guess that when you become CofTE and PM you are surrounded by a huge team of SPADS, civil servants, representations from CCHQ all telling you “let us take care of x and y as you have lots of other things to do and you need to present a face to the public of being in charge”.
This then stops you actually being you as you have been assured by all and sundry that you need to behave a certain way but also your actual abilities are not being used because all the competing pillars are pushing or blocking because they want different results.
You have to be a certain character to rise above that and it probably requires a spell as opposition leader or a long period in politics to get there which Sunak didn’t have. He was likely ten years and two crises early to use any ability he has.
Far too many twenty and thirty somethings with no experience outside politics and media being listened to by PMs these days ahead of their cabinet colleagues, not to mention their predecessors who are viewed as dinosaurs rather than wise counsellors.
One of Sunak's main problems was timing. He could have been a better PM at the head of a Conservative Party that hadn't been purged by Boris.
I keep saying, Boris Johnson is the root of all this. The Conservative Party 2024 is the product of his energetic sociopathy. Nothing but vines and ivy grows there any more. He reduced the party to a sort of drunken pageantry, an elaborate chaos with a nasty streak.
Someone like Sunak could have taken over from a defeated Cameron in 2015 and in 2024 be nearing the end of his first term as PM, with a strong chance of re-election. Instead, he rides a party stampeding uncontrollably to a cliff edge.
Covid derailed everything political in 2020, it seems to be completely forgoten. Without Covid we could be in a completely different political position.
Covid derailed everything political in 2020, it seems to be completely forgoten. Without Covid we could be in a completely different political position.
Johnson would have always gone in the same way. The idea he'd have made it to ten years under any circumstance is totally for the birds.
Starmer's message seems to be "Time for a change but I can't promise anything", which doesn't feel like a great message. But better than Sunak who doesn't have any message at all.
I see that PB was talking about infrastructure earlier.
Well the way to get more infrastructure built is to make sure that current infrastructure projects are completed on time and within budget.
I wonder does anyone have any data on how many infrastructure projects achieve this ?
And are there any patterns as to the cost effectiveness and speed in infrastructure building.
Now it seems that the bigger the infrastructure project the more overbudget and behind schedule it will be.
Especially anything which claims to be 'world leading' or 'biggest in Europe'.
If so it might suggest that this country would be better concentrating on small to medium sized infrastructure.
But that impression might be formed only because the bigger the infrastructure projects is the more media attention it gets.
I see the idiots complaining about infrastructure linking London to the SW have got another shot at moaning in court. I believe that one of the reasons we never do anything quickly is too much opportunity for involving the law in these kind of situations. Just get on with it.
Obviously the expulsion of the leader at the last GE is Labour's first big test/drama of the campaign and it comes as the switched off are switching on. These are the sort of moments that can make a difference unexpectedly to those of us who are wonks for Westminster events and always in tune to developments. Corbyn has his fans, Labour needs them to not revolt. That said I don't think it will shift things but..... there's always but
Entirely possible to me that Corbyn/Gaza puts off a number of those on the Labour left and there is some leakage to the Greens in particular. The good news for Starmer is those voter profiles are more heavily concentrated in solid, urban Labour seats as a rule, and therefore some revolt from that coalition is not going to have a huge impact. It also helps Starmer with moderates.
I could see it perhaps losing him a few seats he might otherwise have won, allowing the Tories to come through. But not changing the overall trajectory of the election.
London is one to watch. I suspect the Tories will again overperform expectations there, given this factor.
Obviously the expulsion of the leader at the last GE is Labour's first big test/drama of the campaign and it comes as the switched off are switching on. These are the sort of moments that can make a difference unexpectedly to those of us who are wonks for Westminster events and always in tune to developments. Corbyn has his fans, Labour needs them to not revolt. That said I don't think it will shift things but..... there's always but
Corbyn's fans will split. Most of them will be disappointed that he's decided to stand against Labour, the party that he's dedicated his life to. A minority will sympathise with him and remove their Labour vote with one for the Greens, Galloway's bunch or whoever. But that minority had probably already decided not to vote Labour anyway. See BJO for details.
Starmer's message seems to be "Time for a change but I can't promise anything", which doesn't feel like a great message. But better than Sunak who doesn't have any message at all.
The Sunak message is "Don't change anything, I can't promise anything"
I've not yet found any screamingly obvious bets at Bet365 but a couple of oddities at least...
Bristol Central is priced up as Green 1/2 odds on to win, with Labour at 6/4 against - Personally I'd have put those odds the other way around
Chichester is odd... it's priced as Labour favourites 4/6, Cons at 13/8 and LD at 6/1. I don't quite see how they get those prices. I would have Cons as narrow odds on favourites, with LD the most likely challenger. I'm aware that it's gone through some Boundary changes but swapping conservative voting rural south downs for conservative voting retirement outskirts of Bognor is a bit of a wash, and I wonder what I'm missing.
I think Brighton Pavilion is the same but possibly even better value. I'm on the 7/4 on Labour.
Keir Starmer twists the knife on Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden election speech.
“The image of a man who says ‘I’m the only one with a plan’ standing in the rain without an umbrella is, to put it politely, pretty farcical.”
6 fucking weeks of this shit.
Dear God, this site is desperately crying out for an ignore function
I mean, it is a General Election, which is pretty rare. I’m very happy with lots of cut n’ pastes, quotes, even pertinent tweets if they are on topic to the election campaign.
It’s things like holiday snaps which are, right now, a distraction.
The best way to ignore "this shit" is surely do what lots of others will and book yourself a holiday abroad?
For myself, it’s my favourite time of politics.
This one feels like a cup final where your team are 5-0 up with 20 minutes to go. So not even much to worry about. Some bitterness from the losers of course but if they hadn't played such dirty football from the start you might have more sympathy
I see that PB was talking about infrastructure earlier.
Well the way to get more infrastructure built is to make sure that current infrastructure projects are completed on time and within budget.
I wonder does anyone have any data on how many infrastructure projects achieve this ?
And are there any patterns as to the cost effectiveness and speed in infrastructure building.
Now it seems that the bigger the infrastructure project the more overbudget and behind schedule it will be.
Especially anything which claims to be 'world leading' or 'biggest in Europe'.
If so it might suggest that this country would be better concentrating on small to medium sized infrastructure.
But that impression might be formed only because the bigger the infrastructure projects is the more media attention it gets.
I see the idiots complaining about infrastructure linking London to the SW have got another shot at moaning in court. I believe that one of the reasons we never do anything quickly is too much opportunity for involving the law in these kind of situations. Just get on with it.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
I think it’s the best way to answer that type of question. Acknowledge that you have made a choice/alteration but blame your opponents for putting you in the position that the choice was necessary. Good politics because most voters who don’t overthink politics will see it as an honest answer.
It’s still unlikely, but answers like that could easily lead me towards voting for him. Even though I’m instinctively more centre right, there just isn’t a decent option on my side of the political divide.
It comes down to a divide within Labour -
1) X is a good thing. We must do it. Even thinking of the cost is bad. 2) X is a good thing. We should do it, if we can afford it.
Historically, 1) is supported by a minority of the country. 2) wins elections.
Yes parties that prioritise the desirable over the affordable usually find the electorate have a limited desire to vote for them. This is something that could be profitably learned by the Labour left over spending commitments and the Tory right over tax reductions.
With due respect, I think Quincel is starting from the wrong place and talking about the wrong seat.
The area which Claire Wright represented on the County Council, as somebody has said, lies in the outgoing Tiverton and Honiton division. This is also being split, but the larger part moves into the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat, which the sitting Lib Dem MP has decided to contest.
The area that moves into the new Honiton & Sidmouth from the old East Devon constituency is relatively small. No idea why the current Tory MP for East Devon decided to abandon most of his existing seat and decide to take on the Lib Dem incumbent - but then, as has been observed, most current Tory MPs are mad.
And of course Claire Wright backed Lib Dem Richard Foord in the byelection, as did most of her supporters, presumably, since Richard Foord won the seat. Not quite sure why the usual suspects see these people going to Labour when they have to make a choice between Lib Dem and Lab later this year, when they have already gone Lib Dem.
I agree her ward is mostly in the new Honiton & Sidmouth, but isn't most of the old constituency she came close to winning in E&EE? I wouldn't have thought her ward is that important, though I'm sure she polled well there.
Many thanks for the comment though, and it's far from impossible I've gotten the wrong scenario here.
Comments
We had a bit of a straw in the wind here in Winchcombe at the last Council elections. The usual Tory hegemony was broken by the Nice Lady Opposite who ran as a genuine Indy with no particular political programme other than to govern sensibly. She had only the assistance of her husband and son but she got home by about 50 votes (or 5%).
Speaking to her recently she says it's hard work, but interesting. It has helped that the customary Tory Majority was converted to NOC, so she finds there is generally scope for cross-party deals.
I think local and perhaps national government would improve generally if this were to happen more often, regardless of who is normally in charge.
https://www.gov.uk/government/people/aaron-bell
Con 9238 (28.8%)
LD 8738 (27.3%)
Lab 5192 (16.2%)
Ind 4506 (14.1%)
Grn 4305 (13.4%)
Oth 57 (0.2%)
Coverage an important factor (other ignored):
No Ind 24.8%
All five 17.3%
No Lab/Grn 16.2%
No Lab 14.1%
No Grn/Ind 13.1%
No Lab/Ind 8.9%
No Lab/Grn/Ind 5.6%
I'm not going to interpret for a GE situation at this point.
“An editor is one who separates the wheat from the chaff and prints the chaff.” Adlai Stevenson
and PB does slightly better than that. Bits of wheat creep through.
What we need is improved procurement processes, more clearly defined concepts and planning/JR reform.
These should be easy wins for Labour, particularly if it wins big.
https://x.com/jimrobottom/status/1793727207732613549
Am I unfair to read it and think "it's not what you know, it's who you know"?
I can't comment on Brum or Coventry etc, but if we assume Hindus and Sikhs are mainly in cities (a fair assumption imo), Nottingham, Derby and Leicester only have one Tory MP out of 8 total - that's Amanda Solloway.
And that perhaps limits this edge.
I'm a YouTuber. I'm English. I was a Labour Party member / councillor / activist and defected. I said nice things about Nicola Sturgeon. I absolutely guarantee there will be stuff I have said which does not sound like a partisan hack parrot. I don't see that as a bad thing - most voters change their minds and their opinions and then their votes. It shouldn't be a surprise when political wannabes are the same.
Bloody youngsters!
Beer has finished. It's the turn of the SPM lawyers. They tend to be less forensic and more brutal. As long as she doesn't mind what people think of her, she should get through unscathed.
All the evidence suggests she doesn't give a shit what people think of her.
Btw, I learned recently that she is supported by a very expensive team of top lawyers. I wonder who is paying for this? My guess is that it is the Post Office, and that they are also providing legal advice for the other witnesses. If correct, that would certainly explain why so few have gone rogue, and told the truth about what was really going on.
Whatever happened to him and why did they replace him with the current model?
He'll run it very close and could easily win
How does PB feel this will go over with the public?
The area which Claire Wright represented on the County Council, as somebody has said, lies in the outgoing Tiverton and Honiton division. This is also being split, but the larger part moves into the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat, which the sitting Lib Dem MP has decided to contest.
The area that moves into the new Honiton & Sidmouth from the old East Devon constituency is relatively small. No idea why the current Tory MP for East Devon decided to abandon most of his existing seat and decide to take on the Lib Dem incumbent - but then, as has been observed, most current Tory MPs are mad.
And of course Claire Wright backed Lib Dem Richard Foord in the byelection, as did most of her supporters, presumably, since Richard Foord won the seat. Not quite sure why the usual suspects see these people going to Labour when they have to make a choice between Lib Dem and Lab later this year, when they have already gone Lib Dem.
This then stops you actually being you as you have been assured by all and sundry that you need to behave a certain way but also your actual abilities are not being used because all the competing pillars are pushing or blocking because they want different results.
You have to be a certain character to rise above that and it probably requires a spell as opposition leader or a long period in politics to get there which Sunak didn’t have. He was likely ten years and two crises early to use any ability he has.
IN S&H Simon Jupp - who has very deep pockets - has been throwing money at the local papers for a long time, He has been far more visible than Richard Foord. However, I suspect he was counting on a bit more time before the GE to re-establish himself after having been away for a very long time.
My guess is that this is a LibDem gain.
Meanwhile, this is presumably good news morally (as a country we spend too much) but not great for a government seeking re-election;
Retail sales fell 2.3% in April 2024, following a revised fall of 0.2% in March 2024 (revised from 0.0%).
Read the release ➡️ ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1793884644410314767
I think Sunak deserves genuine credit for the furlough scheme which he'd clearly worked hard and thought through when he was Chancellor.
But Blair always used to say that the problem with Brown was that he was good at making a few decisions, occasionally whereas as PM you need to make big decisions all the time and Brown couldn't do that. I kind of feel similarly with Sunak, look at how he's gone between being the continuity candidate, to the change candidate, to the continuity candidate again.
toxins.
Rocks tend to weather, both mechanically and chemically.
3M was the biggest manufacturer, for five decades (and covered up their test results which showed them to be dangerous).
Also hormone disrupters, which might have had all kinds of consequences.
My view is that he has the ability to be competent - but he hasn't got any political experience to know how to use it. I can totally buy how he was so successful in the finance world. He's clearly a smart chap.
Personally it doesn't bother me but I wonder how the public feel.
Bristol Central is priced up as Green 1/2 odds on to win, with Labour at 6/4 against - Personally I'd have put those odds the other way around
Chichester is odd... it's priced as Labour favourites 4/6, Cons at 13/8 and LD at 6/1. I don't quite see how they get those prices. I would have Cons as narrow odds on favourites, with LD the most likely challenger. I'm aware that it's gone through some Boundary changes but swapping conservative voting rural south downs for conservative voting retirement outskirts of Bognor is a bit of a wash, and I wonder what I'm missing.
We're very much outsiders. I'm from Hackney, which is bad enough, but worse, my wife has a Canadian accent, which is usually mistaken for American, and this occasionally provokes anti-american remarks.
Don't be seduced by that charming Cotswold veneer. For a truer picture, I would refer you to the brilliant comedy, Hot Fuzz.
If you look at things such as the Windsor framework and his attempts to improve relations with the EU I think, if he wasn’t being pulled in violently different directions by the two main factions of the party, he would actually be a good compromiser, a pragmatist not ideologue.
I would think that every single day he had constant pressures from one faction then another demanding opposite actions and making threats.
Frankly it would be impossible to achieve much except try and keep on the economic tightrope and throw red meat to either side on other matters whist you focus on the economy.
He could have been a good alternative to Brown after Blair, he would have got the GFC as it’s his world, he wouldn’t have been such a tribal brooding git. Economically dry, pretty socially liberal and not going to scare the horses.
At least Labour have unambiguously had their "I know thee not, old man" moment. A fair chunk of the Conservative party still hanker after their old man.
'The money is not available to abolish both tuition fees and cut NHS waiting lists, I've taken a political choice to prioritise the NHS'
Sir Keir Starmer is asked about a number of pledges that he has abandoned since running for the Labour leadership.
He's clearly been trained for this question, not a bad response I guess, saying the NHS is worth more over tuition fees. So not a bad dodging of the question, what does PB think as I am Labour supporting anyway?
I'm already persuaded that the PO witnesses been carefully schooled in how to obfuscate what they actually did, while keeping the readily provable lies to a minimum.
I'm coming to this a bit late (Bet365 are now 11/2 LDs per oddschecker). Pity anyone backing Con at 1/6!
Would be nice to see more constituencies up on the exchanges.
I also have bias but I did think that maybe there is method in the Tories wanting weekly tv debates between Sunak and Starmer as he was evasive and Sunak (for his faults) was much more direct in his R4 interview yesterday by comparison.
It’s very easy for people to say he’s going to be good on his feet as he was a Barrister but how often was he really doing the Rumpole of the Bailey/Good Wife stuff as DPP and when he did how often was he just pointing out facts from a prepared list of facts rather than actually facing a grilling where he is being questioned instead? Not necessarily the same skills.
Corbyn has his fans, Labour needs them to not revolt.
That said I don't think it will shift things but..... there's always but
It’s still unlikely, but answers like that could easily lead me towards voting for him. Even though I’m instinctively more centre right, there just isn’t a decent option on my side of the political divide.
(i) Swingback, Reform withering, campaign impact, 'better the devil you know', economy looking better, Get Rwanda Done, lack of enthusiasm for SKS ... Labour win a solid majority, Cons of the order 200.
(ii) The country has absolutely had it with the Tories and hand them a punishment beating, the centre goes Labour, the right goes Reform ... massive Labour landslide, Cons more like 100.
All you have to do is decide which of these will happen - before it becomes obvious. Then you clean up. It's as easy as that.
It continues to be my view that far too many people seriously underestimate Starmer, and that he's going to win a good majority not just because the Tories are rubbish but because voters will decide that he'll make a pretty decent, sensible PM.
https://msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/drivers-face-traffic-carnage-near-popular-tourist-site-with-incredibly-damaging-three-month-road-closure/ar-BB1mUPMN?ocid=BingNewsSearch
1) X is a good thing. We must do it. Even thinking of the cost is bad.
2) X is a good thing. We should do it, if we can afford it.
Historically, 1) is supported by a minority of the country. 2) wins elections.
Straight out of the campaign launch playbook
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/04/the-state-of-process-the-process-state/
If £250K is needed for small plank bridges across ditches, then we aren't going to bridge many ditches.
I could see it perhaps losing him a few seats he might otherwise have won, allowing the Tories to come through. But not changing the overall trajectory of the election.
London is one to watch. I suspect the Tories will again overperform expectations there, given this factor.
Many thanks for the comment though, and it's far from impossible I've gotten the wrong scenario here.