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Sunak is just like the Grand Old Duke of York? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe it's replacing Hunt with Claire Coutinho, as someone mentioned earlier.

    I mentioned it because Hunt has been withdrawn from ITV tonight

    I hope if Hunt is replaced the GE date is also confirmed
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe it's replacing Hunt with Claire Coutinho, as someone mentioned earlier.

    I mentioned it because Hunt has been withdrawn from ITV tonight

    I hope if Hunt is replaced the GE date is also confirmed
    Thanks for reminding me it was you. Should have searched.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited May 22

    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe it's replacing Hunt with Claire Coutinho, as someone mentioned earlier.

    To stop Rachel Reeves being the first female chancellor.
    That would be a bit petty. Anyway Labour haven't won yet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe it's replacing Hunt with Claire Coutinho, as someone mentioned earlier.

    You don't recall the FS for that, nor call a full cabinet meeting
    Edit - and why? If the economic plan is working........
    Hunt wants to announce his retirement from politics
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450
    edited May 22
    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RMCunliffe

    "If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."

    War with Russia?

    Has something happened we are unaware of?
    The Kharkiv front is being flattened and Russia are running tactical nuke exercises
    Hope everyone's got their three day supply of bottled water sorted...
    Does 2 years of wine at pessimistic consumption rates, in UPS protected wine fridges, count?
    Depends, what sort of wine goes well with a nice bit of sauteed rat from the neighborhood rat man?

    Pretty cynically, I think the new "have 3 days food and water in your house" messaging is just so people die of radiation poisoning in their own homes, rather than stinking up the streets or raiding their neighbours house in search of the last bottle of Evian.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited May 22
    Lords test match starts on 10th July, with the GOAT appearing for the last time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,121
    edited May 22
    I hate this period. The time between two points, where everything is rumour and there is no solid data, just twitter and journalists being [redacted badword]s. This is the place where the true gamblers live and the statistician must bow out, because I have no solid ground to stand on. This is the time when Susan Hall looks like a winner of LonMayor2024, or Mme. LePen looks like a winner of round 1 of the POTFR2022, when everything is in flux and nothing is known. Good luck and I'll see you when we know something.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    Yes, and Trump

    OTOH he is also predicting that Sunak will scrape a tiny majority, which does rather undermine his crediblity

    However he is obsessively political and does know people - and its quite possible he is on the right grapevine for this
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited May 22
    Fair play to @MoonRabbit

    For a Moon Rabbit double header, July election and a Tory victory?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    edited May 22

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heathener, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Heathener said:

    I suspect a lot of us of whatever persuasion feel that an election sooner rather than later would be good, for the country’s sake.

    It has been feeling like end of term for far too long.

    Let’s clear the air, one way or t’other.

    Yep, it's time to shuffle the pack
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Sunak looked far too chipper at PMQs to be in possession of news that the King is very ill/abdicating etc

    It would cheer me up.

    I think there is too much Kremlinology going on here. It doesn't alter the electoral timetable if Chaz megs it, they just wheel in Baldy Basket Case. If he's all boo-hoo over his bony Mrs then get Phil out of Kirstie 'n' Phil who looks like a less heavily medicated version of the PoW anyway.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    Yes, and Trump

    OTOH he is also predicting that Sunak will scrape a tiny majority, which does rather undermine his crediblity

    However he is obsessively political and does know people - and its quite possible he is on the right grapevine for this
    Did he predict that Liz Truss was the diamond in the rough who would trounce Starmer?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 22
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sunak looked far too chipper at PMQs to be in possession of news that the King is very ill/abdicating etc

    It would cheer me up.

    I think there is too much Kremlinology going on here. It doesn't alter the electoral timetable if Chaz megs it, they just wheel in Baldy Basket Case. If he's all boo-hoo over his bony Mrs then get Phil out of Kirstie 'n' Phil who looks like a less heavily medicated version of the PoW anyway.
    If KC3 pops off during campaign its 14 days delay to election date taking us into all of UK school holidays
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    Yes, and Trump

    OTOH he is also predicting that Sunak will scrape a tiny majority, which does rather undermine his crediblity

    However he is obsessively political and does know people - and its quite possible he is on the right grapevine for this
    Did he predict that Liz Truss was the diamond in the rough who would trounce Starmer?
    We've all made duff predictions. I know I certainly have. Poor Liz was undone by the blob. In some ways she was unfortunate. Bright enough to see the problem, too dim to see that her solution would crash and burn.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sunak looked far too chipper at PMQs to be in possession of news that the King is very ill/abdicating etc

    It would cheer me up.

    I think there is too much Kremlinology going on here. It doesn't alter the electoral timetable if Chaz megs it, they just wheel in Baldy Basket Case. If he's all boo-hoo over his bony Mrs then get Phil out of Kirstie 'n' Phil who looks like a less heavily medicated version of the PoW anyway.
    If KC3 pops off during campaign its 14 days delay to election date taking us into all of UK school holidays
    Why? As soon as one king dies, we get another. Like it or not. That's the whole point of the stupid fucking system isn't it?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    Fair play to @MoonRabbit

    For a Moon Rabbit double header, July election and a Tory victory?

    MoonRabbit's most recent prognostication was that the election would be announced at 9.23 tomorrow morning.

    Bad form of Rishi not to hold off for another 16 hours to give her a rare victory...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "General election speculation feels different this time
    By Chris Mason, Political editor, BBC News"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69048696
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited May 22
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sunak looked far too chipper at PMQs to be in possession of news that the King is very ill/abdicating etc

    It would cheer me up.

    I think there is too much Kremlinology going on here. It doesn't alter the electoral timetable if Chaz megs it, they just wheel in Baldy Basket Case. If he's all boo-hoo over his bony Mrs then get Phil out of Kirstie 'n' Phil who looks like a less heavily medicated version of the PoW anyway.
    Kirstie? "A whole lotta woman"? Or could we see a "whole lotta Rosie"?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,528

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @severincarrell

    Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024

    Perhaps he thinks he can do a Corbyn with SKS as Mrs May?
    That gives us the prospect of another five years of inertia. What will be left by 2029?

    Remember 1992 Kinabalu. Remember 1992!
    A tiny part of me wants Sunak to win to have to clear up the mess he has made. Tories on 10% in 2028.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sunak looked far too chipper at PMQs to be in possession of news that the King is very ill/abdicating etc

    It would cheer me up.

    I think there is too much Kremlinology going on here. It doesn't alter the electoral timetable if Chaz megs it, they just wheel in Baldy Basket Case. If he's all boo-hoo over his bony Mrs then get Phil out of Kirstie 'n' Phil who looks like a less heavily medicated version of the PoW anyway.
    If KC3 pops off during campaign its 14 days delay to election date taking us into all of UK school holidays
    Why? As soon as one king dies, we get another. Like it or not. That's the whole point of the stupid fucking system isn't it?
    I don't make the rules nor understand them!
    I suspect to suspend campaigning for the period of national mourning
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    I believe I said jail and I stand by that. £50 to the charity of your choice if he serves jail time, £50 to mine if not. Might need and end point as this could take a while... By 2030?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Andy_JS said:

    "General election speculation feels different this time
    By Chris Mason, Political editor, BBC News"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69048696

    The BBC should leave this kind of thing to others and be resolutely formal.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,091
    Lady Starmer must be furious that she won’t get one last summer holiday in peace.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Heathener said:

    I suspect a lot of us of whatever persuasion feel that an election sooner rather than later would be good, for the country’s sake.

    It has been feeling like end of term for far too long.

    Let’s clear the air, one way or t’other.

    Pounding the streets in December isn't anyone's idea of a good time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,378

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    The Charge of the Light Brigade was a victory for common sense.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    Thing is, literally everyone on pb keeps saying it will only get worse the longer he leaves it, so now pb is saying he's mad to go now. Which is it folks? 😅
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sean_F said:


    The Charge of the Light Brigade was a victory for common sense.

    They stuck to the plan.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    AlsoLei said:

    Fair play to @MoonRabbit

    For a Moon Rabbit double header, July election and a Tory victory?

    MoonRabbit's most recent prognostication was that the election would be announced at 9.23 tomorrow morning.

    Bad form of Rishi not to hold off for another 16 hours to give her a rare victory...
    Rishi could still announce it tomorrow morning and it would be ok for 4 July
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Sean_F said:

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    The Charge of the Light Brigade was a victory for common sense.
    Maybe he's actually going to announce that we're invading Crimea.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Some briefings apparently now that the PM will make an announcement from DS at 5
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    Thing is, literally everyone on pb keeps saying it will only get worse the longer he leaves it, so now pb is saying he's mad to go now. Which is it folks? 😅
    Leaving the dogs behind.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Maybe no more PMQs then?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Seems strange about Hunt

    Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor

    Probably no but why not add to the speculation

    As with days like this there are multiple strands of speculation, many of which quickly wither to nothing. There is an odd focus on Hunt, but I do wonder if that's journalistic lensing rather than the intent.
    You dont need to drag the Foreign sec back to a special cabinet in order to change the chancellor.
    Could we be declaring war on somebody?
    France. Please be France.
    Could Mr Eagles handle it in his weakened state?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Is this before or after the election?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    Yes, and Trump

    OTOH he is also predicting that Sunak will scrape a tiny majority, which does rather undermine his crediblity

    However he is obsessively political and does know people - and its quite possible he is on the right grapevine for this
    Did he predict that Liz Truss was the diamond in the rough who would trounce Starmer?
    We've all made duff predictions. I know I certainly have. Poor Liz was undone by the blob. In some ways she was unfortunate. Bright enough to see the problem, too dim to see that her solution would crash and burn.
    If there was a BLOB, it saved Britain.
    Personally I think it was, rather ironically, Market Forces.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,435

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    Yes, and Trump

    OTOH he is also predicting that Sunak will scrape a tiny majority, which does rather undermine his crediblity

    However he is obsessively political and does know people - and its quite possible he is on the right grapevine for this
    Did he predict that Liz Truss was the diamond in the rough who would trounce Starmer?
    We've all made duff predictions. I know I certainly have. Poor Liz was undone by the blob. In some ways she was unfortunate. Bright enough to see the problem, too dim to see that her solution would crash and burn.
    Liz thought that leadership involved telling people what to do. Leadership is really about persuading people to follow you.

    It's a really massive difference, and it's understanding that difference that, in part, led to Osborne creating the OBR in the first place, and enabled him to borrow mountains more money than he said he would.
  • 🚨 NEW: Ministers expect that Rishi Sunak will tell them in the 4:15pm meeting that he is heading to Buckingham Palace to ask the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election on 4 July

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793286364856811831

    @MoonRabbit was right, fair play all around.

    I should have stuck to my guns!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    Sunak to call election, but may be some time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    edited May 22
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Even beating Labour to an all-women shortlist.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Andy_JS said:

    Lords test match starts on 10th July, with the GOAT appearing for the last time.

    Have tickets for day 1. Cannot wait!!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    🚨 NEW: Ministers expect that Rishi Sunak will tell them in the 4:15pm meeting that he is heading to Buckingham Palace to ask the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election on 4 July

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793286364856811831

    @MoonRabbit was right, fair play all around.

    I should have stuck to my guns!

    Wow!!!!!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Eabhal said:

    Just to add to the frenzied election speculation, there's a No10 spads meeting at 2pm... and Liam Booth-Smith is wearing a tie!

    https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1793253977485681082

    Sunak has agreed a merger with Reform, Tice is replacing Hunt :cold_sweat:
    Lord Farage of Calais in as Home Secretary
    of the Cinque Ports, surely?
    Ruby, Tawny, Vintage, Crusted, and late bottled?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 22
    If we go in july be interesting to see if Starmer let's the likes of Sultana run under the Lab-brella
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    First July election since 1945 if so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    🚨 NEW: Ministers expect that Rishi Sunak will tell them in the 4:15pm meeting that he is heading to Buckingham Palace to ask the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election on 4 July

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793286364856811831

    @MoonRabbit was right, fair play all around.

    I should have stuck to my guns!

    If true, whoever had inside info and was betting this morning has made a tiny, if possibly illegal (?), packet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Oh, is this an attempt to avoid a confidence vote?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Mortimer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Lords test match starts on 10th July, with the GOAT appearing for the last time.

    Have tickets for day 1. Cannot wait!!!
    Started under Blair, ends under Starmer??
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Sean_F said:

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    The Charge of the Light Brigade was a victory for common sense.
    My great great great uncle took part in that, he came back unscathed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    I believe I said jail and I stand by that. £50 to the charity of your choice if he serves jail time, £50 to mine if not. Might need and end point as this could take a while... By 2030?
    The pressure to see people punished for this will, I predict, become irresistible

    Because, even if you still believe it "came from some bat soup at the wetmarket, not from the virology lab trying to create really nasty bat viruses 200 yards down the road" the fact it is is now unquestionably true - as even you concede - that there was a cover up of the possibility it came from the lab, and an attempt to silence all discussion of that, by several key actors. They all need to stand trial, because their stupid self-serving fraudulence probably delayed us getting the truth about the virus, early on, when it might have saved millions of lives and trillions of dollars. And there are serious questions about banned gain-of-function research being funded by America but taking place in China, explicitly to evade the law

    Daszak is finished, for a start
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755
    Sunak to announce immediate recognition of Palestine as a state? Slightly late to the party, like the Con defectors to The Independent Group :lol:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    @AnushkaAsthana

    Some people working in govt have now been told an election announcement is definitely coming - but without a date!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Economist latest forecast.

    Lab 381
    Con 192
    LD 22
    SNP 27

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Andy_JS said:

    First July election since 1945 if so.

    And first election in a year ending in 4 since 1974. There were two that year...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RMCunliffe

    "If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."

    War with Russia?

    Has something happened we are unaware of?
    The Kharkiv front is being flattened and Russia are running tactical nuke exercises
    Hope everyone's got their three day supply of bottled water sorted...
    Does 2 years of wine at pessimistic consumption rates, in UPS protected wine fridges, count?
    Depends, what sort of wine goes well with a nice bit of sauteed rat from the neighborhood rat man?

    Pretty cynically, I think the new "have 3 days food and water in your house" messaging is just so people die of radiation poisoning in their own homes, rather than stinking up the streets or raiding their neighbours house in search of the last bottle of Evian.
    Actually, the vast majority of radiation could avoided by waiting a week or 2 in the cellar.

    The curious thing is that because of the probable density of targeting, most of the country wouldn’t experience blast, thermal pulse etc. so it would be undamaged. Plants a bit stunted by the radiation. And dead people scattered about.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,435

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    Thing is, literally everyone on pb keeps saying it will only get worse the longer he leaves it, so now pb is saying he's mad to go now. Which is it folks? 😅
    There are plenty of us who have been consistent in saying he would be mad to go early even if it gets worse the longer he leaves it.

    I don't think that's because we all have a financial interest in a complete Tory wipeout.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Even beating Labour to an all-women shortlist.
    That’s a list of White Men.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    First July election since 1945 if so.

    And first election in a year ending in 4 since 1974. There were two that year...
    Can we handle THREE massive elections in one year?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    I have an eye on my inbox.

    I give it 20 minutes from any announcement until a Labour fundraiser hits it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Could Sunak be hijacked prior to seeing Chas?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,007
    Off topic, but possibly pertinent to problems in other nations:

    "The release of the annual Social Security trustees’ report is usually the occasion for some dolorous lament that we have inched another year closer to disaster. This year, however, I have good news! The industrious actuaries at the Social Security Administration, having ground through all the data, now think our nation’s looming entitlement meltdown looks slightly less catastrophic than it did last year.

    They now forecast that the combined Social Security Trust Funds won’t be exhausted until 2035, a year later than they expected in 2023. They also see some improvement in the program’s long-term finances, primarily because of more favorable assumptions about productivity growth and disability rates — though that happy news is, they write, “partially offset by a decrease in the assumed long-term total fertility rate,” which has now gone from 2 children per woman to 1.9."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/14/social-security-fix-birthrates/
    source: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2024/

    The last time the TFR was that high? 2010:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
    And the trend is not encouraging.

    (Accidentally posted on previous thread,)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,091
    IanB2 said:

    🚨 NEW: Ministers expect that Rishi Sunak will tell them in the 4:15pm meeting that he is heading to Buckingham Palace to ask the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election on 4 July

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793286364856811831

    @MoonRabbit was right, fair play all around.

    I should have stuck to my guns!

    If true, whoever had inside info and was betting this morning has made a tiny, if possibly illegal (?), packet.
    Is there such a thing as insider trading for betting? Surely it’s lawful, if unethical.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Because it’s all downhill from here
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    First July election since 1945 if so.

    And first election in a year ending in 4 since 1974. There were two that year...
    Can we handle THREE massive elections in one year?
    TSE can :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:


    The Charge of the Light Brigade was a victory for common sense.

    They stuck to the plan.
    Actually they didn’t. Nolan pointed to the wrong valley.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Vennells proving yet again that she has detailed recall ... of evidence which suits her.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450
    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    @kitty_donaldson

    Civil servant texts to say everyone has downed tools and is refreshing Twitter
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    I do this your asking-for-a-friend friend ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Give our regards to Sean. We miss him!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    I believe I said jail and I stand by that. £50 to the charity of your choice if he serves jail time, £50 to mine if not. Might need and end point as this could take a while... By 2030?
    The pressure to see people punished for this will, I predict, become irresistible

    Because, even if you still believe it "came from some bat soup at the wetmarket, not from the virology lab trying to create really nasty bat viruses 200 yards down the road" the fact it is is now unquestionably true - as even you concede - that there was a cover up of the possibility it came from the lab, and an attempt to silence all discussion of that, by several key actors. They all need to stand trial, because their stupid self-serving fraudulence probably delayed us getting the truth about the virus, early on, when it might have saved millions of lives and trillions of dollars. And there are serious questions about banned gain-of-function research being funded by America but taking place in China, explicitly to evade the law

    Daszak is finished, for a start
    Is that a yes? As you brought it up again!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    @mikeysmith

    Rishi Sunak being prevented from calling an election because he had to fight a no confidence vote would be the most Rishi Sunak thing that has ever happened.

    @DPJHodges

    Treat reports of confidence motions going in to stop Sunak calling election with a pinch of salt. No prospect of triggering a challenge in that way. Couple of rebels just laying markers in off-chance he doesn’t call one, so they can say “we made him back off”.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    Hahahahaha this is the funniest thing I read all day.... but you are right. He would have a true stiff upper lip if this comes to pass
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    I believe I said jail and I stand by that. £50 to the charity of your choice if he serves jail time, £50 to mine if not. Might need and end point as this could take a while... By 2030?
    The pressure to see people punished for this will, I predict, become irresistible

    Because, even if you still believe it "came from some bat soup at the wetmarket, not from the virology lab trying to create really nasty bat viruses 200 yards down the road" the fact it is is now unquestionably true - as even you concede - that there was a cover up of the possibility it came from the lab, and an attempt to silence all discussion of that, by several key actors. They all need to stand trial, because their stupid self-serving fraudulence probably delayed us getting the truth about the virus, early on, when it might have saved millions of lives and trillions of dollars. And there are serious questions about banned gain-of-function research being funded by America but taking place in China, explicitly to evade the law

    Daszak is finished, for a start
    And yet the editor of the Lancet will still be there like nothing happened.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Mental Spice, Evil Spice, Thick Spice and I can't even be bothered to come up with one for Mordaunt.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Could Sunak be hijacked prior to seeing Chas?
    Nah, no time for the vote before he goes to the Palace and no way it passes anyway.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    edited May 22

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Could Sunak be hijacked prior to seeing Chas?
    Even if could be removed as Tory leader in time, he'd still remain PM. Hard to see that Chas would refuse a dissolution in those circs, given we're so close to the time limit anyway...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    What's the main accusation against him? Working with China?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Probably Sunak thinks he can salvage 150 seats or more if he goes now, rather than fewer than 100 if he hangs on until the last possible minute.
  • It was Danny Finkelstein who said July was more likely on Times Radio a few days ago.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    If this happens is Sunak not buying his own good news? Okay, Vennells had taken over the news cycle before this, but the drop in inflation was up there.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Could Sunak be hijacked prior to seeing Chas?
    Even if could be removed as Tory leader in time, he'd still remain PM. Hard to see that Chas would refuse a dissolution in those circs, given we're so close to the time limit anyway...
    Yep and the rebels would have to fight a GE leaderless unless they all agree a candidate
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    If Sunak announces a snap election, can’t help but think slightly better of him.

    It’s in the best traditions of British suicidalism, like Captain Scott, and the Charge of the Light Brigade etc.

    Hahahahaha this is the funniest thing I read all day.... but you are right. He would have a true stiff upper lip if this comes to pass
    Rishi Sunak = Sydney Carton.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Could Sunak be hijacked prior to seeing Chas?
    A hard stop of the PMs car on The Mall by shotgun wielding masked men dressed in tweeds?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    Civil servant texts to say everyone has downed tools and is refreshing Twitter

    Most important question- what colour lanyard are they wearing
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    You wouldn't think Labour could lose an election from this position, but you never know.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    What's the main accusation against him? Working with China?
    An entire textbook of allegations. Richard Ebright has been on the case (a science prof at Rutgers) he's feeling vindicated (quote rightly) and here is his summary:

    "Unindicted felon Peter Daszak provably defrauded the US government, provably breached contractual terms of US-government grants, and, through reckless gain-of-function research in Wuhan, probably caused the COVID-19 pandemic, killing 20 million and costing $25 trillion."

    https://x.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1793263627547423206
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    🚨 NEW: Ministers expect that Rishi Sunak will tell them in the 4:15pm meeting that he is heading to Buckingham Palace to ask the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election on 4 July

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793286364856811831

    @MoonRabbit was right, fair play all around.

    I should have stuck to my guns!

    Will it be independence from the Tories day ?
  • Andy_JS said:

    You wouldn't think Labour could lose an election from this position, but you never know.

    I think they are hoping for Theresa May in reverse.

    Of course in that election the Tories still won.
This discussion has been closed.