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Sunak is just like the Grand Old Duke of York? – politicalbetting.com

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  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    Economist latest forecast.

    Lab 381
    Con 192
    LD 22
    SNP 27

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast

    LDs a little to low for me there. But otherwise looks plausible.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Could Sunak be hijacked prior to seeing Chas?
    The most hilarious sequence of events is if he bottles calling an early election, but panicked MPs call a confidence vote in him to stop him from doing so anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,007

    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    Civil servant texts to say everyone has downed tools and is refreshing Twitter

    Most important question- what colour lanyard are they wearing
    Nobody knows because they are all working from home...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @jamesrbuk
    I am hearing that there is currently a stage being built at the ExCeL for a Conservative Party event this evening – around 8pm.

    Given reports of an announcement outside Number 10 around 5pm, could this be some kind of follow up launch?

    @mikeysmith
    Given the response to the rumours from Tory backbenchers, one hopes they booked a small room.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Mental Spice, Evil Spice, Thick Spice and I can't even be bothered to come up with one for Mordaunt.
    Mumsy
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    If July then the round of polling beginning Monday should give us our first hint at the campaign outset polling, by then the DKs will have had a chance to K with a certain date in play
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Scott_xP said:

    @Stefan_Boscia

    Tory MP when asked if I should cancel my June plans at 11.44am: "Probably not."

    Same MP, unprompted, at 2.53pm: "Hold that."

    The chances of a June election now are very, very slim. July certainly, but there isn't enough time for June now on a Thursday.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @severincarrell

    Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024

    Perhaps he thinks he can do a Corbyn with SKS as Mrs May?
    That gives us the prospect of another five years of inertia. What will be left by 2029?

    Remember 1992 Kinabalu. Remember 1992!
    A tiny part of me wants Sunak to win to have to clear up the mess he has made. Tories on 10% in 2028.
    But it doesn't work that way. If the Cons win again in these circumstances that's a one party state we have.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Andy_JS said:

    You wouldn't think Labour could lose an election from this position, but you never know.

    I think they are hoping for Theresa May in reverse.

    Of course in that election the Tories still won.
    You're back. Shocked.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @KevinASchofield

    Hearing Rishi Sunak has a campaign visit lined up for tomorrow.

    Looks like it's on ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    I for one feel a sense of relief at the news of an election, equivalent to the sense of relief I felt when my quinsy was lanced; it meant my mouth was full of pus and blood - that's the election of Labour - but the pain was finally gone - that's the Tories departing
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Mental Spice, Evil Spice, Thick Spice and I can't even be bothered to come up with one for Mordaunt.
    Sub Spice. It livens up the Tory market offering.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Mental Spice, Evil Spice, Thick Spice and I can't even be bothered to come up with one for Mordaunt.
    Vacant Spice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,007
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    Hearing Rishi Sunak has a campaign visit lined up for tomorrow.

    Looks like it's on ...

    Like fat Pat's thong....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Scott_xP said:

    @Stefan_Boscia

    Tory MP when asked if I should cancel my June plans at 11.44am: "Probably not."

    Same MP, unprompted, at 2.53pm: "Hold that."

    The chances of a June election now are very, very slim. July certainly, but there isn't enough time for June now on a Thursday.
    July election means that June is busy with an election campaign.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    And the Post Office bill? Not going to look good to leave them hanging again...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Mental Spice, Evil Spice, Thick Spice and I can't even be bothered to come up with one for Mordaunt.
    Curvy Spice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Vennells getting lucky wrt publicity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,387

    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    And the Post Office bill? Not going to look good to leave them hanging again...
    By interrupting Vennells' train wreck he already has.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    SeanT ?
    Leon's alter ego Heather, surely. Never forget the rumours about new lockdowns...
    Didn't you want to make a bet with me, the other day, that Peter "Lab Leak" Daszak would never see a trial or a jail?

    You sure?

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Last night, based partially on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent staff report and public hearing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced individual debarment proceedings against Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Inc.

    This move comes one week after @HHSgov issued an immediate, government-wide suspension on all taxpayer funds allocated to EcoHealth.

    Dr. Daszak’s individual debarment will prevent him from receiving funds from the U.S. taxpayer."

    https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1793251784930066524

    The conspiracy to gaslight us is finally falling to pieces, and it looks Daszak is in the firing line. And given that TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE are dead, that seems fair
    What's the main accusation against him? Working with China?
    An entire textbook of allegations. Richard Ebright has been on the case (a science prof at Rutgers) he's feeling vindicated (quote rightly) and here is his summary:

    "Unindicted felon Peter Daszak provably defrauded the US government, provably breached contractual terms of US-government grants, and, through reckless gain-of-function research in Wuhan, probably caused the COVID-19 pandemic, killing 20 million and costing $25 trillion."

    https://x.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1793263627547423206
    Ta.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Rishi Sunak presumably now being intensively coached for the announcement.

    I almost feel sorry for him already.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    Hearing Rishi Sunak has a campaign visit lined up for tomorrow.

    Looks like it's on ...

    Like fat Pat's thong....
    Usually worn on Frank Butchers head.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Probably Sunak thinks he can salvage 150 seats or more if he goes now, rather than fewer than 100 if he hangs on until the last possible minute.
    He might think he can win or go close. Corbyn17 turned round a big deficit in the GE campaign.

    Oh Ri-ishi Sunak ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,007
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    Right that has put the kibosh on it then....Back to Dec GE.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith

    Rishi Sunak being prevented from calling an election because he had to fight a no confidence vote would be the most Rishi Sunak thing that has ever happened.

    It's probably never been tested, but I think calling a GE would take precedence over an internal Conservative leadership challenge.

    (In theory, both could run alongside each other, but it'd be farcical - how would the question, "So who will be Prime Minister if your party wins?" be answered.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,387
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Probably Sunak thinks he can salvage 150 seats or more if he goes now, rather than fewer than 100 if he hangs on until the last possible minute.
    He might think he can win or go close. Corbyn17 turned round a big deficit in the GE campaign.

    Oh Ri-ishi Sunak ...
    Starmer might prove as inept a campaigner as May.

    But it's hard to see Sunak magically becoming as effective at campaigning as Corbyn.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515

    Scott_xP said:

    @Stefan_Boscia

    Tory MP when asked if I should cancel my June plans at 11.44am: "Probably not."

    Same MP, unprompted, at 2.53pm: "Hold that."

    The chances of a June election now are very, very slim. July certainly, but there isn't enough time for June now on a Thursday.
    July election means that June is busy with an election campaign.
    Good, lots of daylight hours for me to deliver bar charts.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Our Canadian daughter in law who, with our son, is here for our diamond celebrations has gone to Betws y Coed today and has just text to say gossip on the train back to Llandudno is a UK GE is about to be called

    Amazing how these rumours spread

    Everyone reads pb. Simples. Best source of news there is.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Thoughts and prayers with Prof. Sir John Curtice, who probably had a nice summer planned on his allotment.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 22
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    Thanks for these useful tweets. I know one or two get annoyed by them on here but I don’t like using twitter these days so it’s helpful to have election-focused ones pinged into this thread.

    From a betting POV of course ;)

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph


    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (+1)
    🔶LD 10 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,295 UK adults, 17-19 May

    (chg 10-12 May)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    edited May 22

    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    And the Post Office bill? Not going to look good to leave them hanging again...
    Not just that

    "Government legislation that hasn't yet reached the
    @UKHouseofLords
    in this session includes:
    🚭Tobacco and Vapes Bill
    ⚖️Crime and Justice Bill
    🔨Sentencing Bill
    ⚽️ Football Governance Bill

    Either these Bills are lost, or scrutiny is heavily scaled back, if election is imminent.
    "

    https://x.com/woodstockjag/status/1793263871244849655
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 22
    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesrbuk
    I am hearing that there is currently a stage being built at the ExCeL for a Conservative Party event this evening – around 8pm.

    Given reports of an announcement outside Number 10 around 5pm, could this be some kind of follow up launch?

    @mikeysmith
    Given the response to the rumours from Tory backbenchers, one hopes they booked a small room.

    I thought the Disney exhibition was occupying ExCel atm.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
    I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
    It might be a value bet. If Reform won't be a factor then it wouldn't take that much of a swing for the Tories to be in contention again.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Coincidentally, I told a couple of people earlier today that the received wisdom on PB was that the election would now be January next year.

    When will I learn?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Probably Sunak thinks he can salvage 150 seats or more if he goes now, rather than fewer than 100 if he hangs on until the last possible minute.
    He might think he can win or go close. Corbyn17 turned round a big deficit in the GE campaign.

    Oh Ri-ishi Sunak ...
    He was remarkable confident at PMQs today - maybe even relieved at what looks like a very sensible decision
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Chris said:

    Rishi Sunak presumably now being intensively coached for the announcement.

    Less tetchy. No, even less tetchy than that.

    Remember, hit the key points. Rainbow lanyards, toilets and the slightly different coloured cross on the England shirt. Don't mention Brexit. Repeat. Do not mention Brexit.

    Can you smile? Ok, Christ, don't smile.

    Is that really how tall he is? Can somebody get him a bucket to stand on?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph


    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (+1)
    🔶LD 10 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,295 UK adults, 17-19 May

    (chg 10-12 May)

    Tory surge already, and he's not even called it yet...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    Ghedebrav said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Economist latest forecast.

    Lab 381
    Con 192
    LD 22
    SNP 27

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast

    LDs a little to low for me there. But otherwise looks plausible.
    I don't think it allows for tactical voting.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Rishi Sunak presumably now being intensively coached for the announcement.

    Less tetchy. No, even less tetchy than that.

    Remember, hit the key points. Rainbow lanyards, toilets and the slightly different coloured cross on the England shirt. Don't mention Brexit. Repeat. Do not mention Brexit.

    Can you smile? Ok, Christ, don't smile.

    Is that really how tall he is? Can somebody get him a bucket to stand on?
    "OK, two buckets then!"
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Probably Sunak thinks he can salvage 150 seats or more if he goes now, rather than fewer than 100 if he hangs on until the last possible minute.
    He might think he can win or go close. Corbyn17 turned round a big deficit in the GE campaign.

    Oh Ri-ishi Sunak ...
    He was remarkable confident at PMQs today - maybe even relieved at what looks like a very sensible decision
    He's believing the internal polling
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    edited May 22
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
    He doesn’t exist. You’re just desperate to make the story (at least partly) about you. As usual.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @maitlis

    It’s on ! July 4th. Just had this from 3 people in last minute.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
    I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
    Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd

    I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet

    PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all

    Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph


    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (+1)
    🔶LD 10 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,295 UK adults, 17-19 May

    (chg 10-12 May)

    Tory surge already, and he's not even called it yet...
    SNPs worst nightmare about to happen maybe

    A July GE
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,387
    Has Paula Vennells really admitted she lied to a select committee?

    Good grief.

    I mean, we all knew she did but I'm surprised she admitted it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
    I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
    Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd

    I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet

    PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all

    Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!

    Still dodging the bet I see, even after you brought it up?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Yeh!! Now all green on date market for me.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Sunak so wants to be American he choses July 4 for the election :grimace:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholaswatt
    A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

    Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

    This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

    Probably Sunak thinks he can salvage 150 seats or more if he goes now, rather than fewer than 100 if he hangs on until the last possible minute.
    He might think he can win or go close. Corbyn17 turned round a big deficit in the GE campaign.

    Oh Ri-ishi Sunak ...
    Starmer might prove as inept a campaigner as May.

    But it's hard to see Sunak magically becoming as effective at campaigning as Corbyn.
    I think Starmer will be pretty effective actually.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Sensible move by Rishi if true. The psychological pressure is now all on Sir Keir. Don't screw this up, don't screw this up, don't screw this up...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    And the Post Office bill? Not going to look good to leave them hanging again...
    Not just that

    "Government legislation that hasn't yet reached the
    @UKHouseofLords
    in this session includes:
    🚭Tobacco and Vapes Bill
    ⚖️Crime and Justice Bill
    🔨Sentencing Bill
    ⚽️ Football Governance Bill

    Either these Bills are lost, or scrutiny is heavily scaled back, if election is imminent.
    "

    https://x.com/woodstockjag/status/1793263871244849655
    All these bills are lost, like tears in rain..
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
    I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
    Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd

    I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet

    PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all

    Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!

    “weirdly correct”. This is hardly one for the X-Files if he’s got political connections. They’d have told him. As you implied.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    So what happens when Mr G Brady's postbox starts overflowing this afternoon?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Yeh!! Now all green on date market for me.

    I'm up in the three months version and down in the exact month, but net is a green... Go Rishi (in both senses...)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @LadPolitics
    How many seats will the Conservatives win at the next General Election?

    0-49 - 8/1
    50-99 - 11/4
    100-149 - 7/4
    150-199 - 3/1
    200-249 - 7/1
    250-299 - 14/1
    300-349 - 33/1
    350-399 - 100/1
    400+ - 100/1
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    edited May 22
    ydoethur said:

    Has Paula Vennells really admitted she lied to a select committee?

    Good grief.

    I mean, we all knew she did but I'm surprised she admitted it.

    She's probably heard the GE rumours and it's a good day to bury bad news. Wait till you hear what she did to Shergar,
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    And the Post Office bill? Not going to look good to leave them hanging again...
    Not just that

    "Government legislation that hasn't yet reached the
    @UKHouseofLords
    in this session includes:
    🚭Tobacco and Vapes Bill
    ⚖️Crime and Justice Bill
    🔨Sentencing Bill
    ⚽️ Football Governance Bill

    Either these Bills are lost, or scrutiny is heavily scaled back, if election is imminent.
    "

    https://x.com/woodstockjag/status/1793263871244849655
    All these bills are lost, like tears in rain..
    Always thought that 'like tears in the rain' would have worked better.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    CatMan said:

    Sunak so wants to be American he choses July 4 for the election :grimace:

    "Make July 4th our independence day from the ECHR!"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @YouGov
    Rishi Sunak's -51 net favourability rating is his joint lowest to date (with Jan)

    Rishi Sunak
    Favourable: 20% (-2 from 12-14 Apr)
    Unfavourable: 71% (+2)

    Keir Starmer
    Favourable: 34% (+1)
    Unfavourable: 51% (-2)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph


    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (+1)
    🔶LD 10 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,295 UK adults, 17-19 May

    (chg 10-12 May)

    As long as the combined Tory/RefUK share is within 10% of Labour's I would be a tiny bit nervous if I was a supporter of the latter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ydoethur said:

    Has Paula Vennells really admitted she lied to a select committee?

    Good grief.

    I mean, we all knew she did but I'm surprised she admitted it.

    Maybe Sunak is hoping she'll distract everyone from noticing the General Election ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961
    edited May 22
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory leadership race in September.

    Candidates: Truss, Braverman, Patel, Mordaunt.

    Mental Spice, Evil Spice, Thick Spice and I can't even be bothered to come up with one for Mordaunt.
    Old Spice in tribute to the aged chuffs who get off on her matronly charms.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited May 22
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
    I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
    Yes, not to be churlish but it would have been nice to have got that 'tip' before it went 1.2 on Betfair.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,387

    ydoethur said:

    Has Paula Vennells really admitted she lied to a select committee?

    Good grief.

    I mean, we all knew she did but I'm surprised she admitted it.

    She's probably hear the GE rumours and it's a good day to bury bad news. Wait till you hear what she did to Shergar,
    She sounded horse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @montie
    Nick is 🎯
    I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn.
    MMMAAAAADDDDD
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Which biscuits for a Cabinet meeting to kick off an election campaign?

    Could be one of your last chances to avail of the Downing Street catering, so presumably you go straight for the fancy chocolate chip cookies?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    edited May 22

    ydoethur said:

    Has Paula Vennells really admitted she lied to a select committee?

    Good grief.

    I mean, we all knew she did but I'm surprised she admitted it.

    She's probably heard the GE rumours and it's a good day to bury bad news. Wait till you hear what she did to Shergar,
    Did Jo Moore change her identity?

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
    He doesn’t exist. You’re just desperate to make the story (at least partly) about you. As usual.
    Here you go, dummy

    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston

    I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

    And the Post Office bill? Not going to look good to leave them hanging again...
    Not just that

    "Government legislation that hasn't yet reached the
    @UKHouseofLords
    in this session includes:
    🚭Tobacco and Vapes Bill
    ⚖️Crime and Justice Bill
    🔨Sentencing Bill
    ⚽️ Football Governance Bill

    Either these Bills are lost, or scrutiny is heavily scaled back, if election is imminent.
    "

    https://x.com/woodstockjag/status/1793263871244849655
    All these bills are lost, like tears in rain..
    Always thought that 'like tears in the rain' would have worked better.
    No, that sounds like pop song lyrics.
    Rutger's version is just better.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited May 22
    July seems mad. Thought it would be in January to give them more time to ban young people.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    ydoethur said:

    Has Paula Vennells really admitted she lied to a select committee?

    Good grief.

    I mean, we all knew she did but I'm surprised she admitted it.

    She's probably heard the GE rumours and it's a good day to bury bad news. Wait till you hear what she did to Shergar,
    Did Jo Moore change her identity?

    image
    Thing is, she was right.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Last time we had a general election in July was... 1945 right?

    Kind of ended sub-optimal for the Tories, that one... ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    Scott_xP said:

    @montie
    Nick is 🎯
    I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn.
    MMMAAAAADDDDD

    Who cares about these mps - the country needs an election
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @christiancalgie

    CCHQ has just uploaded the two free post templates for a GE to the party’s online toolkit, one keen-eyed activist spots...
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph


    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (+1)
    🔶LD 10 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,295 UK adults, 17-19 May

    (chg 10-12 May)

    Tory surge already, and he's not even called it yet...
    SNPs worst nightmare about to happen maybe

    A July GE
    Banter timetline here would involve more Operation Branchform charges.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Scott_xP said:

    @montie
    Nick is 🎯
    I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn.
    MMMAAAAADDDDD

    That is mad. As long as he gets to the Palace before Graham Brady gets a full postbag and starts the process with 1922 Sunak is PM and the advice to dissolve has to be followed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Labour faces series of crises if elected, internal dossier warns"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b95976ff-d861-4baf-a168-fd262b4e2f95
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    edited May 22
    Ah - will have to book the 5th July off to watch the inevitable bloodbath..

    I just think it’s all utterly bonkers. But then again, this is Sunak. Like throwing them to the lions
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
    He doesn’t exist. You’re just desperate to make the story (at least partly) about you. As usual.
    I've got a girlfriend but you wouldn't know her. She goes to a different school.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,387
    edited May 22

    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for
    @Telegraph


    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (+1)
    🔶LD 10 (-2)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 5 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,295 UK adults, 17-19 May

    (chg 10-12 May)

    Tory surge already, and he's not even called it yet...
    SNPs worst nightmare about to happen maybe

    A July GE
    Banter timetline here would involve more Operation Branchform charges.
    Glen Sannox might sink in her sea trials.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour faces series of crises if elected, internal dossier warns"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b95976ff-d861-4baf-a168-fd262b4e2f95

    Well yeah, who knew, lol! 😂
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
    He doesn’t exist. You’re just desperate to make the story (at least partly) about you. As usual.
    Here you go, dummy

    image
    Actually, looking at the timing it seems my friend told me this before 1pm. Sorry: if I'd handed on the rumour earlier you could all have made money?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Did *anyone* have July in the PB Prediction Competition?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    GIN1138 said:

    Last time we had a general election in July was... 1945 right?

    Kind of ended sub-optimal for the Tories, that one... ;)

    Although they returned to power 5 years later. Might not be so quick this time around.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    edited May 22
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm

    *brave*

    Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
    I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong

    So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
    He doesn’t exist. You’re just desperate to make the story (at least partly) about you. As usual.
    Here you go, dummy

    image
    More BS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,387

    GIN1138 said:

    Last time we had a general election in July was... 1945 right?

    Kind of ended sub-optimal for the Tories, that one... ;)

    Although they returned to power 5 years later. Might not be so quick this time around.
    Six years, three months later, actually.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6

    He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely

    Did he predict Brexit?
    he is obsessively political
    What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.

    I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here

    Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
    I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
    Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd

    I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet

    PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all

    Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!

    Still dodging the bet I see, even after you brought it up?
    Go fuck yourself. Seriously. Your attitude to this is.... ugh

    20 million dead and you think it's all funny
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    GIN1138 said:

    Last time we had a general election in July was... 1945 right?

    Kind of ended sub-optimal for the Tories, that one... ;)

    The Tories lost 189 seats in 1945. An identical result this time would see them reduced to 176 seats.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @lewis_goodall

    I understand a large venue where a big election count takes place has this afternoon received a block booking from the government for 4th/5th July…
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Scott_xP said:

    @montie
    Nick is 🎯
    I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn.
    MMMAAAAADDDDD

    That is mad. As long as he gets to the Palace before Graham Brady gets a full postbag and starts the process with 1922 Sunak is PM and the advice to dissolve has to be followed.
    Sounds like the plot of a heartwarming caper movie as Graham Brady races across London to stop Rishi meeting the King.
This discussion has been closed.