A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Did he predict Brexit?
he is obsessively political
What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.
I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here
Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd
I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet
PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all
Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!
Still dodging the bet I see, even after you brought it up?
Go fuck yourself. Seriously. Your attitude to this is.... ugh
20 million dead and you think it's all funny
Seriously? I'm offering to the the bet that you brought up! I don't think it's funny that 20 million died, I just don't think jail time will result. Lack of funding, bring ostracized for sure, but not jail. You clearly are not as confident as you sound if you aren't prepared to risk a £59 quid charity donation.
I understand a large venue where a big election count takes place has this afternoon received a block booking from the government for 4th/5th July…
Isn't it local councils that organise counts, not the government?
Yes. And why would the government be booking ahead of the announcement - it's not like they'd delay the election if the venue turned out not to be available!
@montie Nick is 🎯 I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn. MMMAAAAADDDDD
That is mad. As long as he gets to the Palace before Graham Brady gets a full postbag and starts the process with 1922 Sunak is PM and the advice to dissolve has to be followed.
The dissolution would still happen and we’d have a Tory leader campaign during a GE campaign. No one is that fucking stupid.
So my pal was right. An election, announced at 5pm
*brave*
Your usual BS, deniable punting just in case.
I said he is often wrong, and that he is predicting a slender Sunak win. This is really not going to happen, he's wrong
So I'm not punting out some bullshit, I am relaying some insider info, which it turns out, is probably correct in this instance
He doesn’t exist. You’re just desperate to make the story (at least partly) about you. As usual.
Here you go, dummy
This shows that just before 1pm a politically connected insider told you there would be a 4 July election. What is the big deal here?
Nothing. There isn't one. It's just @IanB2 is so insane he thinks I would make this up. If I'm gonna make shit up I will do it in style, and with some major purpose, not spend hours creating a fake friend who handed me a plausible but already widely spread rumour 39 minutes before blah blah
@montie Nick is 🎯 I know of three MPs submitting no confidence votes to stop an elxn. MMMAAAAADDDDD
That is mad. As long as he gets to the Palace before Graham Brady gets a full postbag and starts the process with 1922 Sunak is PM and the advice to dissolve has to be followed.
The dissolution would still happen and we’d have a Tory leader campaign during a GE campaign. No one is that fucking stupid.
You're talking about a party that boasts Rees-Mogg, Fabricant and Braverman among its ranks.
Your assertion seems to me to be on the courageous side.
A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Did he predict Brexit?
he is obsessively political
What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.
I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here
Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd
I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet
PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all
Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!
Still dodging the bet I see, even after you brought it up?
Go fuck yourself. Seriously. Your attitude to this is.... ugh
20 million dead and you think it's all funny
Seriously? I'm offering to the the bet that you brought up! I don't think it's funny that 20 million died, I just don't think jail time will result. Lack of funding, bring ostracized for sure, but not jail. You clearly are not as confident as you sound if you aren't prepared to risk a £59 quid charity donation.
You don't get it. My outright contempt for you is very real: on this narrow but tremendously important subject
I shouldn't even have engaged with you, that was my bad. I won't do it again
A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Did he predict Brexit?
he is obsessively political
What, as opposed to us here on PB. mkay.
I mean he actually has a job in politics, as an elected politician, which is NOT true of most people on here
Anyway, it seems that this time he aced it
I mean, lovely. But you posted his information about an hour after everyone else was already talking about the rumour on here.
Jeez. Tough gig: tough crowd
I'm just noting what a friend said, and he is often weridly correct: it seems he even got the timing right (5pm), tho we don't quite know yet
PB is a place where we swap rumours, it's what we do. This was a rumour from an intriguing source. Is all
Right, now I have to organise another trip to Italy. The Gazette is so impressed by my enthusiastic descriptions of Taranto and Altamura they are sending me back there, on assignment. Yay!
Still dodging the bet I see, even after you brought it up?
Go fuck yourself. Seriously. Your attitude to this is.... ugh
20 million dead and you think it's all funny
Seriously? I'm offering to the the bet that you brought up! I don't think it's funny that 20 million died, I just don't think jail time will result. Lack of funding, bring ostracized for sure, but not jail. You clearly are not as confident as you sound if you aren't prepared to risk a £59 quid charity donation.
You don't get it. My outright contempt for you is very real: on this narrow but tremendously important subject
I shouldn't even have engaged with you, that was my bad. I won't do it again
So why not take the bet? Because if you were so sure you'd do it. Fine, I know we will not agree on this, although I don't think my opinion is what you think it is tbh.
I have the inside scoop (well, a ridiculous and highly unlikely idea, but that's pretty much the same thing):
As everyone know the Conservative Party is short of cash. Earlier this month, they put everything - and I mean everything - on a July election date in Betfair. Their market is currently showing a £4.2m profit.
They are now ramping the date hard, while simultaneously exiting the position.
In this way, the Conservative Party will have lots of money to spend on the upcoming campaign.
Reform UK just announced a "huge press conference" tomorrow at 11am.
Generous of Farage to give Sunak an even of triumph before unveiling Armageddon in the morning
Not sure.
Farage has been game playing and dithering. If he announces his comeback after Rishi has called the election it just looks like he's reacting to events and dancing to Rishi's tune.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Am rather losing count of the number of ministers asking me what is happening with their government. One described an imminent general election as “weird”. They asked: why do it before the flights have taken off for Rwanda?
If this were a heist movie, we'd be at the bit where the conmen (who we root for, despite ourselves) have realised they have to get on a plane to anywhere, and quick, because the scam is about to collapse.
Obviously, I'm not saying that Rishi Sunak is a conman who we are rooting for.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Am rather losing count of the number of ministers asking me what is happening with their government. One described an imminent general election as “weird”. They asked: why do it before the flights have taken off for Rwanda?
If this were a heist movie, we'd be at the bit where the conmen (who we root for, despite ourselves) have realised they have to get on a plane to anywhere, and quick, because the scam is about to collapse.
Obviously, I'm not saying that Rishi Sunak is a conman who we are rooting for.
I'm glad to hear it.
The last thing our subtle and modest host needs, while ill, is to be sued by a bunch of conmen.
One thing to bear in mind is that the campaign will be completely overshadowed by the Euros.
TV debates will almost certainly be up against a Euros match.
Presuming England get through, what dates are the knock-out matches?
Sunday 30 June if they win the group. Saturday 29 June if they come second. Monday 1 (20:00) or Tuesday 2 July (17:00) if they come third and qualify as one of the four best third place teams.
Reform UK just announced a "huge press conference" tomorrow at 11am.
Generous of Farage to give Sunak an even of triumph before unveiling Armageddon in the morning
Not sure.
Farage has been game playing and dithering. If he announces his comeback after Rishi has called the election it just looks like he's reacting to events and dancing to Rishi's tune.
It probably made sense to wait until the election announcement.
The Brexit Party launch was in April 2019 before the European elections in May.
I have the inside scoop (well, a ridiculous and highly unlikely idea, but that's pretty much the same thing):
As everyone know the Conservative Party is short of cash. Earlier this month, they put everything - and I mean everything - on a July election date in Betfair. Their market is currently showing a £4.2m profit.
They are now ramping the date hard, while simultaneously exiting the position.
In this way, the Conservative Party will have lots of money to spend on the upcoming campaign.
If they haven't done this before, and decide to leave the bets to run, they might have to wait until the election happens before Betfair pay out...
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Memo to PB Tories: being in opposition is less fun than you might imagine.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer followed the Cameron precedent and brought Mandelson into the cabinet again.
Comments
There is no question that at moment he commands the House.
Yes, honestly. No better backdrop for a Tory election launch. Hope there are photo ops.
It’s on. Parliament to be dissolved 30 May. Recess cancelled.
I mean, I know you have sad yearning sex with your dog so "spending time in unusual pursuits" is not alien to you, but really. Occam's razor, old boy
Someone with a very loud speaker has also arrived at Downing Street and is blasting out “things can only get better”.
Maybe it could be posed as a referendum.
"Which would you more like us to be independent from?
(1) The European Convention on Human Rights
(2) The Conservatives?"
Bets, anyone?
Your assertion seems to me to be on the courageous side.
🚨Rishi Sunak IS calling a summer election this afternoon, sources tell
@guardian
I understand a large venue where a big election count takes place has this afternoon received a block booking from the government for 4th/5th July…
I shouldn't even have engaged with you, that was my bad. I won't do it again
Fine, I know we will not agree on this, although I don't think my opinion is what you think it is tbh.
July-Sep 1.04 / 1.05
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.218024805
New - Sources tell me July 4 is the going to be the date of the next election. Now confirmed to folk internally.
https://x.com/FBonertz/status/1792958650727952516
TV debates will almost certainly be up against a Euros match.
And if he didn't, what has changed his mind now?
Honestly, the man's so inept at politics it's actually embarrassing. He makes Hilary Clinton look like Franklin D. Roosevelt.
As everyone know the Conservative Party is short of cash. Earlier this month, they put everything - and I mean everything - on a July election date in Betfair. Their market is currently showing a £4.2m profit.
They are now ramping the date hard, while simultaneously exiting the position.
In this way, the Conservative Party will have lots of money to spend on the upcoming campaign.
Farage has been game playing and dithering. If he announces his comeback after Rishi has called the election it just looks like he's reacting to events and dancing to Rishi's tune.
I would almost certainly have lost my shirt betting at obscene odds on 2025.
Am rather losing count of the number of ministers asking me what is happening with their government. One described an imminent general election as “weird”. They asked: why do it before the flights have taken off for Rwanda?
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1793295592539529353
The reason to do it before flights go is that the fortnight/four weeks after flights go test the "deterrent" theory & test it to destruction
Obviously
Arrivals > removals
At least tenfold
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1793297121858220338
If this were a heist movie, we'd be at the bit where the conmen (who we root for, despite ourselves) have realised they have to get on a plane to anywhere, and quick, because the scam is about to collapse.
Obviously, I'm not saying that Rishi Sunak is a conman who we are rooting for.
The last thing our subtle and modest host needs, while ill, is to be sued by a bunch of conmen.
------------
If all results at Euro 2024 go with the world rankings England’s opponents in the knockout rounds would be…
Round of 16: Sunday June 30 - England vs Austria/Romania/Turkey (Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen)
Quarter-final: Saturday July 6 – England vs Italy (Merkur Spiel-Arena, Dusseldorf)
--------------
If England group runner-up,
Round of 16: Saturday June 29 - Germany vs England (Westfalenstadion, Dortmund)
Quarter-final: Friday July 5 – Spain vs England (MHPArena, Stuttgart)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vvYc6q7-Os
Bold move to call an election before the 100 chess sets have been delivered.
Saturday 29 June if they come second.
Monday 1 (20:00) or Tuesday 2 July (17:00) if they come third and qualify as one of the four best third place teams.
The Brexit Party launch was in April 2019 before the European elections in May.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47907350
Quarters after the 4th
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Sunak's given up. Calling an election now means he's given up.
@ShippersUnbound
The view of most MPs and ministers I have spoken to today
@PhilipJCollins1
I think it's pathetic of him to give up. He's been found out in the top job, I'm afraid.
"Contact in Downing St" is his reply, and he says "it is a leaky place ATM"
He is a politician and its almost all he cares about, that and paragliding. So he is an intriguing source
I will pay more attention to his next rumour, tho I am still discounting his insane belief that Sunak might scrape a win
What has Sunak been told that made him throw in the towel?
Many Tories were **not** expecting this, just after demoralising local elections.
One former cabinet minister, veteran of multiple campaigns, tells me going early is “madness, suicidal, the charge of the light brigade”.
#AfterTiming
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin